Mafia Game 78 - Tales of the Malazan Book of the Fallen

[House Upcliff]

I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that there are lots of VPIs and I'm not one of them. that and my role is not one that can be hidden, so I'm at the mercy of what people think about balance. It sucks, but it is.

On re-reading the lynch of Dassem, I am finding nothing new or anything that is changing my mind. I've almost forgotten why Fiddler looked so suspicious initially so I'm going to have to go back and pay attention. It's just become habit at this point (I mean, it's overdefensiveness and such, but specifically what were the cases on him)

His part in the lynch was pretty early on. I do think Karsa's vote made Dassem a viable lynch, but would an FM meekly jump on that train at that time? If so, it's a great time to jump on, but then why undermine it by pushing for Yedan? Why not keep pushing it at that point without the Dassem vote? Actually, I think I've just talked myself into finding it suspicious again - he's got the cover of a Dassem vote but the hope of changing it up. I just find that it is a very transparent move. Everything that Fiddler has done has been transparent and the 5th vote on Dassem doesn't quite fit with that. Am I overthinking this?

Anway, Icarium's refusal to put Yedan on the table and considering Dassen could easily be distancing, so I officially withdraw inno cred for that.

[House Redfort]

Babies! :love:

Oh, Trull, can you guess my old 2 suspects? Silchas and Karsa. :lmao: I am happy I didn't answer that at night. :lol:

In my notes, I have Silchas CI, QB VPI (Dassem + squirrel reasons), Gruntle PI because of Silchas.

Trull VPI but I didn't reread him.

I think the FM killed Kalam on night 1 and there's no healer. Thus, I think Wolf twins are ok (would change this if one claimed)

Fiddler could be FM, but claimed RI in an innocent way.

Leaves Onos, Tehol and Iccy.

(eta: i forgot Yedan, not a good sign)

[House Upcliff]

I think the FM killed Kalam on night 1 and there's no healer. Thus, I think Wolf twins are ok (would change this if one claimed)

What? Why would a CI claim the vig kill if he wasn't the vig?

(eta: taking a break, dinner time)

[House Redfort]

What? Why would a CI claim the vig kill if he wasn't the vig?

(eta: taking a break, dinner time)

The FM could have also killed Kalam---or do you know something we don't? :stunned:

[House Pommingham]

:lol: Sandy I <3 U, but you are mad crazy. But yes, I agree it is theoretically possible that both the vig and the FM targeted Kalam.

[House Redfort]

:lol: Sandy I <3 U, but you are mad crazy. But yes, I agree it is theoretically possible that both the vig and the FM targeted Kalam.

humph.

[House Pommingham]

Ok, I would be perfectly happy with any of Icarium, Tehol or Fiddler. I've seen FM in a desperate spot give up like Icarium is doing. It's great because (i) it smacks of frustrated innocence (what killer would give up?) and (ii) let's the FM stop trying so hard (which is great for the FM if he thinks winning is a long shot anyway).

We give Toc a pass today as he is still TEH WOLFS, but I think the only reason people don't find him suspicious is because he's the D'ivers. What I mean is that he's basically been ignored since Day 1. Has anyone even done a re-read of him? I'd wager not.

Yedan, I have in my Toc tier. Still in the suspect pool, but I gotta say that I find him less suspicious because I think Icarium, Tehol and Fiddler have all done more overtly scummy stuff.

I'm actually feeling an Icarium/Tehol partner combo at the moment, but let me see if a re-read bears that out.

[House Pommingham]

Updating vote count:

It is day 3.

12 players remain: Fanderay, Fiddler, Gruntle, Icarium, Onos Toolan, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Silchas Ruin, Tehol Beddict, Togg, Trull Sengar, Yedan Derryg.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

3 votes for Fiddler (Onos Toolan, Yedan Derryg, Tehol Beddict)

3 vote for Icarium (Togg, Fanderay, Trull Sengar)

1 vote for Tehol Beddict (Fiddler)

1 vote for Yedan Derryg (Silchas Ruin)

4 players ARE NOT DOING THEIR JOB have not voted: Gruntle, Icarium, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat.

ETA: fixed Troll's vote

[House Frey]

Ugh. I much preferred the old deadline (although I guess I'm outnumbered). I'm invited to a coworker's house after work tomorrow. Unless I sneak out to the bathroom to check on the lynch during the deadline, this is pretty much my only window to post anything at all before the deadline, so I'll try to get something done now.

To be honest, I've basically had a lot of trouble keeping up with this game over the last few days. It's partly sleep deprivation, partly lack of raw hours I have to sit in front of the computer, partly the number of players in this game and speed at which it's moving. (Seriously, guys. Do you all have to post sixty times a day in a game this size? Rereading Tehol in isolation is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.) So I feel as though I have an incomplete picture of the game in my head, and I'm just going by gut impressions and confirmation bias. And I'll be honest--I wasn't consciously thinking, "I'm confirmed, so I can slack off as much as I want!", but I'll admit that lately, it seems that I work harder to scumhunt when I'm in the hot seat than when I don't have to prove my alignment anymore.

What I'm going to do right now is ignore Icarium just for a bit, just to make sure I'm not tunneling him, and reread other players with a fresh mind.

I can actually buy Tehol's paranoia, because to be honest, Dassem was pretty much a fluke. I just got caught up in the heat of the moment, people hammered before I finished second-guessing myself, and for once my hapless victim was an FM.

@Onos: deadline is twenty-four hours away. Hold your horses. A vote is coming eventually.

[House Velaryon]

Hurry up! Make a case so I can sheep you!

[House Frey]

I'm actually feeling an Icarium/Tehol partner combo at the moment, but let me see if a re-read bears that out.

I actually had that theory on D2, based on how Tehol reacted to my case on Icarium. That said, I've got to admit that if Tehol is guilty, he's doing a fantastic job right now. I mean...I guess he'd be desperate were he an FM in such a tight spot. But he's being really thorough in all his analysis.

When I skimmed through the last few pages, almost everyone sounded innocent at times. It's freaking me out. Maybe it's just that I'm not actually processing half the walls I'm reading, just judging them by tone (so I'm not picking up on what objectively scummy stuff or poor arguments, say, Fiddler might have made, just going, "Ooh, isn't he trying so hard today?").

Even Icarium...aside from how I think his behaviour with respect to the wagon fits well with a buddy, and the whole "cognitive dissonance" defence about how he'd act as an FM, I also didn't like how certain he seemed that the FM were Tehol/Yedem the moment he saw Rake's flip. He then followed this with a rather confirmation biasy reread of them both that seemed to look more at superficial scumtells. (I know I said I wouldn't tunnel on him, but he's the player I couldn't resist rereading first.) And I think his reasons for clearing Fiddler ("he symped so strongly to an innocent"? Um, what? I think every FM has steadfastly defended a mislynch target at least once) were kind of ridiculous.

But gah...WIFOM. Why is he pushing so hard to be lynched before Fiddler, if he's scum? To frame him? To reverse-distance? Too many players have pulled the "I'm an RI, so you can just lynch me" defence this game.

This is so frustrating.

[House Yronwood]

5 players ARE NOT DOING THEIR JOB have not voted: Gruntle, Icarium, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Trull Sengar.

Not true, my vote is on Icarium.

[House Pommingham]

I actually had that theory on D2, based on how Tehol reacted to my case on Icarium. That said, I've got to admit that if Tehol is guilty, he's doing a fantastic job right now. I mean...I guess he'd be desperate were he an FM in such a tight spot. But he's being really thorough in all his analysis.

Thorough analysis is a town tell??? I disagree. Null tell at best. Let me put it this way. Look at the pool of VPI/PI. Look at the pool of suspects. Who is trying harder?

[House Pommingham]

Not true, my vote is on Icarium.

Fixed.

[House Frey]

Fiddler could be FM, but claimed RI in an innocent way.

Leaves Onos, Tehol and Iccy.

I'm not sure why I'm even asking you this, since you're close to confirmed (I could actually see an FM clearing a random innocent in everyone's second tier just to confirm himself with a role, but the Dassem interactions really did not look like distancing). But what are you talking about, claimed RI in an innocent way? Tehol and Icarium role-claimed similarly. What's the subtle difference between theirs and Fiddler's RI claim?

Also, why exactly is Onos on that list?

Hurry up! Make a case so I can sheep you!

Please don't.

[House Baratheon]

Also, all of this is before I've done my reread on whose trying to get Yeden lynched... my list may change as a result.

Well, I've been the conductor of that train. I can see the validity in your argument for his innocents, but I just have a bad feeling about him. I also have a terrible tendency to get tunnel-visioned.

I'd be more than willing to switch my vote to Icarium, but I don't think I'd vote Fiddler. Yes, some of the things he's done seems scummy, but you can make that argument for almost any of the remaining players - even Ben and he's as close to CI as you get at this point. Fiddler seems genuine to me. Maybe his defense of me does it, and I'd definitely vote for him tomorrow if whoever we lynch today turns up innocent.

My gut is still on a Icarium/Yedan team. I just think they realize they have almost no chance to win this and have pretty much thrown in the towel.

[House Velaryon]

Anyone making an argument I've done anything scummy is clearly mistake! pfft.

Anyway my little brother's gonna be visiting me tomorrow~

I guess that means I should technically be asleep. But instead i'll see if I can do that day 2 re-read.

[House Velaryon]

Please don't.

HOW DOES THE BURDEN OF PROFICENY FEEL?

I mean, I've dealt with it all my life, so I know what you're going through...

[House Yronwood]

I'd be more than willing to switch my vote to Icarium, but I don't think I'd vote Fiddler. Yes, some of the things he's done seems scummy, but you can make that argument for almost any of the remaining players - even Ben and he's as close to CI as you get at this point. Fiddler seems genuine to me. Maybe his defense of me does it, and I'd definitely vote for him tomorrow if whoever we lynch today turns up innocent.

But what about the fact that he's on an ever shrinking list of suspects? I mean, I've come to Yeden's defense but if our next two lynches fail to yield a result, you can bet I'm going to reevaluate him.

That said, I'm curious as to how many other people feel this way about Fiddler. I know Icar has expressed the same reluctance to vote for him, but I'm paranoid that Icar's intentions are less than pure.

Personally I've been wavering on Fiddler ever since day one. He's on my short list for a lynch due to process of elimination, but he always plays second fiddle to another lynch candidate.

My gut is still on a Icarium/Yedan team. I just think they realize they have almost no chance to win this and have pretty much thrown in the towel.

I don't know. I'd say that theory is just short of conspiracyville -- Icarium at least has been quite relentless in his pursuit of Yeden.

It's something to consider in the event we lynch one of them and they turn guilty, but NOT something we should base our vote on today.

[House Frey]

Thorough analysis is a town tell??? I disagree. Null tell at best. Let me put it this way. Look at the pool of VPI/PI. Look at the pool of suspects. Who is trying harder?

It's not just the number of posts he's making.

Basically, it's how systematic Tehol is. It looks as though he's actually trying to figure stuff out. I find that strong aggressive players sometimes look a bit mechanical or narrow in focus as FM. I don't get that impression from him this game.

But I should stop responding to small points instead of reading complete ISOs (to borrow Gruntle's term). At this point, I'll never make up my mind before the deadline.