The Queen's Revenge

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Jak Scaletongue said:

I think "We know" is the key.  "We" do know - but we don't know how much the characters know about wildfire.  The only reason Tyrion (one of the most well-read characters) knows that wildfire gets more dangerous as it ages is because a pyromancer told him so.  Neither Jaime nor Brienne seem at all concerned that Aerys's stash is still hanging around.  And the pyromancer's are *very* secretive about their product - even Varys might not know how dangerous it is when left alone.  If he doesn't know, then he may feel the same about it as Jaime does - No one knows it's there, it's safe from being blown up.  If he does know - well, I guess that depends on his end-game...But if he's unaware that aged wildfire is more volatile and doesn't know that they're sitting on a time bomb, why would he risk moving it?  It might come in handy for something.  Even Varys is human (though I realize even that's up for debate...), he's got blind spots, biases, and he can't know everything as hard as he tries.

And Jaime says it's everywhere - under stables, brothels, cellars in Flea Bottom, plus the stashes they have found under the Sept and Dragonpit.  We know already that the pyromancer's haven't moved any, or else they wouldn't still be finding some right before the BotBw.  I think the only pyromancer who knew where it all was, was Aerys's last Hand. Probably why he got the job.

Personally, I think it will be dragons/Targs AND the wildfire that takes out KL.  They'll go in for the "kill" and BOOM! Bye bye King's Landing! (Not exactly like that, clearly - but better!)  I don't think *anyone* is going to set off the wildfire on purpose - either dragonfire sets it off, or another riot leads to a city-wide fire which sets it off.

But really - I just want to see King's Landing go BOOM!

Well, I don't really. That would kill about a million innocent people, give or take.

Even if we assume Varys had not enough interactions with the pyromancers during Aerys' days - you know, he would have been most likely been present during or at least informed about all those wildfire plans - or hadn't researched the topic himself (he knows enough about magic to understand that both Renly and Penrose were murdered by a shadowbinder) one would assume that he would have learned about the volatile nature of the wildfire during the preparation for the Blackwater. Everybody knew about that by the time Tyrion had the City Watch instructed to treat the substance in general with care and the old fruits with the utmost care.

But still - the idea that Varys would allow hundreds of jars of wildfire remain in a place under the Red Keep is just nonsensical. He would have known where they were, and had thus had any opportunity to remove them. Even if he didn't destroy them but hid them somewhere only he would know where they were and he would never hand them over to Cersei so that she can burn Aegon's city down.

Other storages may still be out there but nobody knows where they are, so if there is a wildfire inferno it will be an accident, not a planned operation. That could perhaps if there is fire in the city, say, during a dragon attack or something similar.

Rossart arranged the whole wildfire thing and his colleagues who Jaime later also killed were the only ones besides him who knew about the places where the wildfire was hidden. Jaime and Brienne clearly don't know that it is still a danger - but then, they certainly aren't experts in this entire field.

[Jak Scaletongue]

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I don't really. That would kill about a million innocent people, give or take.

Even if we assume Varys had not enough interactions with the pyromancers during Aerys' days - you know, he would have been most likely been present during or at least informed about all those wildfire plans - or hadn't researched the topic himself (he knows enough about magic to understand that both Renly and Penrose were murdered by a shadowbinder) one would assume that he would have learned about the volatile nature of the wildfire during the preparation for the Blackwater. Everybody knew about that by the time Tyrion had the City Watch instructed to treat the substance in general with care and the old fruits with the utmost care.

But still - the idea that Varys would allow hundreds of jars of wildfire remain in a place under the Red Keep is just nonsensical. He would have known where they were, and had thus had any opportunity to remove them. Even if he didn't destroy them but hid them somewhere only he would know where they were and he would never hand them over to Cersei so that she can burn Aegon's city down.

Other storages may still be out there but nobody knows where they are, so if there is a wildfire inferno it will be an accident, not a planned operation. That could perhaps if there is fire in the city, say, during a dragon attack or something similar.

Rossart arranged the whole wildfire thing and his colleagues who Jaime later also killed were the only ones besides him who knew about the places where the wildfire was hidden. Jaime and Brienne clearly don't know that it is still a danger - but then, they certainly aren't experts in this entire field.

Blame my husband and Michael Bay movies!

And yes, out of everyone in King's Landing (besides the pyromancer's), Varys is the most likely to know and understand the threat.  But Aerys's paranoia may have prevented him from putting all his eggs into Varys's basket.  I think it's more likely that if Varys found out it was through his birds rather than Aerys himself. 

Moving jars of wildfire is just as dangerous, of not more so, than leaving them be.  If he knows he's the only one who knows they're there (or rather, he knows that Jaime doesn't care and thinks the threat is null) it would be smarter to hide them where they are.  The pyromancer Tyrion talks to was surprised by the cache they found and the previous cache that had been found too - so it's clearly not common knowledge even among the pyromancers.  Varys could do what he needs to do to keep a Red Keep cache hidden without risking blowing the place up by moving the very volatile wildfire (false walls aren't that difficult to build - and easier to do without a trained professional).  Even if he didn't understand the volatile nature of aged wildfire before the BotBw.  If he did know the nature of aged wildfire beforehand, it's even less likely he'd risk moving it without at least some aid from at least one pyromancer.  Moving volatile wildfire (new or aged) without a trained professional is stupid - and Varys isn't stupid.

And like I said, I don't think it will be an intentional attack.  I do think the hidden wildfire will be set off by an accident of some sort - likely dragonfire.  The only way it goes off on purpose is if either Varys or Jaime decide "fuck this" and blow it - which I don't see happening.  Varys needs KL, the Red Keep and the Iron Throne in one piece to give fAegon some legitimacy, politically.

Like you said, Rossart and those "in the know" were all killed by Jaime, thinking he was nullifying the threat of the hidden wildfire.  So that leaves an entire guild of pyromancers completely ignorant of where and how many caches of wildfire are hidden around the city.  To me, this implies that even Varys was left in the dark about the wildfire Aerys stashed.  At least, "officially" in the dark - like I said above, it's entirely likely he found out through "unofficial" means.  But even if he did know about the stashes, officially or unofficially, it would still be stupid to move wildfire without a trained professional - and Jaime killed all the trained professionals that already knew.  It's not unlikely, I suppose, that Varys let a pyromancer in on his knowledge of a stash below the Red Keep then killed the guy after it had been moved, but even that's a risk.  Whether it's a risk Varys was willing to take or not will be seen in the next two books, hopefully!  But given the nature of wildfire, I doubt moving it by himself was a risk he was willing to take.  Far too dangerous, and he's a lynchpin in the bigger picture.  Risking his life moving wildfire would be too stupid for Varys, in my opinion.  But it's just that - my opinion.

[Lord Varys]

Varys most likely didn't know exactly know where the wildfire was hidden across the city, but we can be pretty sure he knows where the wildfire beneath the Red Keep was (or is).

And he certainly has the manpower (or rather the birdpower) to get them moved where he wants to jars to be. If I was Varys and thought I could use those jars one day in the future I'd store them in a (nearly) airtight chamber. Without air even wildfire should be harmless, and there must be some such rooms down beneath the Red Keep. And Varys has no reason to wait until the wildfire gets volatile. He could have removed it shortly after the Sack.

In that context one could also ask what plan Varys had in plan to survive the inferno. Even if Aerys tried to keep him in the dark (rather unlikely considering that he was supposed be always at the king's side) he wouldn't have been successful if Chelsted could find out. Hiding beneath the castle wouldn't have worked - perhaps not even if there hadn't been hidden wildfire beneath the Red Keep - because the huge inferno would inevitably have sucked all the oxygen out of the secret passages and dungeons, suffocating anyone down.

In light of the fact that Varys most likely didn't want to die, and most likely also wanted the KL population to die one can speculate whether he used Jaime as a pawn back then to prevent the wildfire plan. Or he may have his own plan in place to take out Rossart's people.

If there is an inferno Varys and Aegon certainly could cause it - they might end up in a position where they are not exactly gracious enough to allow Dany to take the city intact (but it is rather unlikely that Varys would step so low).

[Jak Scaletongue]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys most likely didn't know exactly know where the wildfire was hidden across the city, but we can be pretty sure he knows where the wildfire beneath the Red Keep was (or is).

And he certainly has the manpower (or rather the birdpower) to get them moved where he wants to jars to be. If I was Varys and thought I could use those jars one day in the future I'd store them in a (nearly) airtight chamber. Without air even wildfire should be harmless, and there must be some such rooms down beneath the Red Keep. And Varys has no reason to wait until the wildfire gets volatile. He could have removed it shortly after the Sack.

In that context one could also ask what plan Varys had in plan to survive the inferno. Even if Aerys tried to keep him in the dark (rather unlikely considering that he was supposed be always at the king's side) he wouldn't have been successful if Chelsted could find out. Hiding beneath the castle wouldn't have worked - perhaps not even if there hadn't been hidden wildfire beneath the Red Keep - because the huge inferno would inevitably have sucked all the oxygen out of the secret passages and dungeons, suffocating anyone down.

In light of the fact that Varys most likely didn't want to die, and most likely also wanted the KL population to die one can speculate whether he used Jaime as a pawn back then to prevent the wildfire plan. Or he may have his own plan in place to take out Rossart's people.

If there is an inferno Varys and Aegon certainly could cause it - they might end up in a position where they are not exactly gracious enough to allow Dany to take the city intact (but it is rather unlikely that Varys would step so low).

But wildfire is volatile even "fresh" (that's the impression I got, kind of like nitroglycerin) - I realize he doesn't really give two shits about his little birds, but if one jar got dropped BOOM there goes the Red Keep.  It's a pretty big risk to move it, especially when other options are open to him - like building a false wall.  Easier to consult with a trained professional without giving the game away, carpenters are easier to find than pyromancers, and after a consultation it's quite simple to build your own nearly airtight false wall.  And it's not that difficult to consult a carpenter about a hypothetical - he wouldn't even need to see the room you're working on to give you a very decent idea of what needs to be done.  But it's really not that important in the long run - whether Varys moved it or not is a moot point if we're both agreed all those hidden caches are going to go up by accident anyway.  Might make a slight difference whether the Red Keep survives the blast or not, but depending on how much is still hidden, the Keep likely won't make it out of the boom unscathed.  Still standing, maybe, but not unscathed.

In my opinion of Varys, he seems the type to be using everyone as pawns, including (especially) Jaime.  For more than just the wildfire plot!  But I've always understood "always at the king's side" to be exaggeration.  We know from Jaime's story that Varys wasn't present when Aerys gave his command to Rossart.  Varys had duties that would take him from the King's side, literally, while still figuratively "at the king's side" in the sense he was only a command away (not out of KL, not even out of the Keep, but not literally at the king's side).  And that's assuming "Rugen" wasn't around in Aerys's time.

I don't see Varys taking out KL - not unless it's already been mostly evacuated/abandoned by the common folk.  He doesn't seem too concerned about them as individuals, but as a whole he understands their importance to the realm (someone needs to do the "dirty" work).  Unless he tells Aegon about the caches, I don't see Aegon doing it on purpose.  And I don't see Jaime doing it either - he killed his King to prevent it in the first place, and that was before all his shiny new character development.  I really don't see him doing it now.

(I'm not *trying* to be contrary!  Sometimes I enjoy being contrary, but I'm fully enjoying this difference in opinion discussion!)

[dsug]

Bump

we were talking about on UtHT that I think Cersei will rid herself of the High Sparrow one way or the other, kill all the Tyrells at court but Margaery, and hold her hostage in the Red Keep while Mace is out mustering a force to attack her. 

[The Commentator]

On 2/6/2016 at 8:16 PM, dsug said:

After arresting Queen Cersei, hacking off her hair, and parading her naked through the streets like a whore, the High Septon better sleep with one eye open. Or should he?

Most of the fandoms seems to agree that Cersei getting bloody vengeance on the Faith is an inevitability. How will she do it? Will she do it at all? Be specific, I love speculation lol. 

She has Robert Strong in her pocket.  She could send him after the High Septon and his gutter rats.  Cersei will do something to get back at the High Septon or die trying.  She's not going to take this humiliation and let it go.

[dsug]

On March 22, 2016 at 0:58 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

She has Robert Strong in her pocket.  She could send him after the High Septon and his gutter rats.  Cersei will do something to get back at the High Septon or die trying.  She's not going to take this humiliation and let it go.

With the Tyrells and the High Sparrow kind of holding the city hostage, Cersei may have no choice but to go through with the trial. She'll probably win. Then, it's a fucking mess lol. 

Kevan's dead. Margaery is in jail. Mace is furious. The High Sparrow has the common people out for royal blood. Cersei's mind is in a downward spiral. 

I think she's gonna let the Tyrells and the Faith battle it out for the most part. Then, once they've slaughtered each other, she and her men will swoop in and kill everybody remaining. If Marg is still alive by this point, Cersei may keep her like Aerys kept Elia, to keep the Tyrells in line. 

OH there's so many things that could happen It'll be so good.