Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

[the conquering bastard 25]

On 9/23/2016 at 9:22 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Well, he certainly might have felt better about his heritage, but I'm still not sure whether he would have been as ambitious as to want the throne itself. First of all, it remains to be seen whether the union of R + L  was indeed legitimate and whether Howland has proof (such that everyone believes it beyond a doubt). That's the only way he would legally be able to stake some claim to the throne. Second, polygamy is questionable in the North, if I am not wrong. Thus it's very likely he would still see himself as a bastard, just not Ned's bastard. (It's very likely Ned has this view, actually, even though he knows the truth of Jon's parentage. Otherwise he shouldn't have allowed him to go to the NW either, right?)

Second, if he ever learnt the truth of his parentage, I don't know if he would want to avenge his father. Anyone hearing the story of the Rebellion would know what happened to Brandon and Rickard Stark, and it would be easy to understand that the rebels had the right of it. 

To even put forward a claim for the throne, he'd have to first convince his family to be on his side - and that would require Ned going against his best friend Robert and surrogate father Arryn, which won't happen. He'd have been smart enough to see that, and not so power-hungry that he'd stake a claim despite that.

True. In this case I think it's more likely he would have asked his father to make him a good marriage, and probably give him a castle to rule in Robb's name (a la what Ned had planned for Bran and Rickon). I'm inclined to believe he'd have been satisfied with this. 

 

This comes back to the point of whether Howland believes that Jon's true parentage is realistically worth staking a claim to the throne over. If the man has some plans to eventually reveal Jon's parentage and it's legitimacy and then urge him to make the most of it, sure, he wouldn't allow the will. But otherwise, in a practical, sensible scenario, it makes far more sense to go ahead with legitimizing him as a Stark.

Jon would not have been satisfied with the plan to hold a castle in Robb name. That was the plan. Remember when Jon mentions if spring had come faster a castle in the gift might have been his.

I argue that Jon Snow nvr had it in him to bend the knee to Robb hince why he headed to the Wall. Again remember BEFORE JS went to talk to Ludwin about joining he thought of his future a lot.

I would even argue that JS had to know over the course of things his Stark blood would win him favor. In the history of the Wall starks or their basted general become LC of the Wall. Placing him on equal standing with Robb. Wf would be Robb seat but the Wall would be his and it's something that he earned not given.

[the conquering bastard 25]

On 9/22/2016 at 3:22 PM, Protagoras said:

Hmm, I actually do think that the Vales army will go north. It makes for a better convoluted plot. And Littlefinger have the cash and the supplies.

I agree with you though, that Jons way to power seems unlikely, yet R+L=J must have some meaning, some impact on the books. A marriage is indeed the best way to solve it, but it requires on instant love or some kind of Daenerys need of Jon (And maybe Jon won´t like Daenerys either). I hope GRRM has worked out something not too cheesy.

I have been speculating for a while about a more "evil" Jon returning from the dead, but that didn´t match at all to what happened in the show (and I believe what happens there has some relevance). I assume Robbs will gives him power, but the same time they find out that he is a Targ and not Ned Starks son (aka the reason he was in that will in the first place) he should replaced with Rickon, or more likely Sansa or Arya.

And Yeah, the Riverlords won´t declare for Jon. Their need for eachother is over and Jon is a walking proof of what little House Tully got from their Stark marriage, considering that he might rule instead of say Sansa. Either you are a grandchild of lord Hoster or you are out. Not that the Tullys is a power anymore, nor is likely to be again. The North had their chance to add the Riverlands to their power and they blew it.

There are those that are working for Jon and strength his cause.

The Blackfish

Lady Mormont

Glover (younger)/Lady Glover

Alys Karstark/husband

Clansmen

Loyal members of watch

Wildlings

 

Elements helping his postition

Robb's will

Stan is march to Deep mottell

Karstark wedding

Suprise or on fence 

Manderly/ older Glover

Lady Dustin

Asha

Jeyne Westerling

Lords declarent

Mance Rayder

Iron Bank and city of Bravoss

Sansa and by extention Tyrion

Now to back my claim (mind you don't have book in front of me so no exact quotes)

 I'll start with the Blackfish.

In feast he tells Jamie that he wold continue his kings war.Yet I have to ask who is he fighting for? To the best of BF knowledge all viable Starks are dead or attainted.

Ayra dead, Rickon and Bran dead

PER Robb will Sansa is attainted because of her marriage to the imp

So question who does that leave? Jon is all that's left. BF acted as his nephews war advisor and I tend to believe that it was BF who first stressed Robb naming an heir because of Bran and Rickon death, and Sansa marriage. While he was married he still didn't have a heir of his body. Better to error on the side of causion and name Jon. We see that Robb has faith in his brother when he talks to Cat asking for her support in his choice.

Then there is a question of those present at the will signing and most being removed from the game but a still pieces on the board even if in a weaker position.

Mallister, Edmure, lady Mormont, Younger Glover, Blackwood (I think), while didn't sign will but has knowledge of its existence Howland Reed. Last but not least the Great Jon.

All of these ppl are  still alive even now.

Per Robb orders Mormont and Glover were to head north with false orders. We get a letter from Bear Island stating they recognize no king but The king in the north. Now it's no guaranteed but I like to think Mormon made it home and LTanna response is to the fact the North has a king and it's Jon.

Edmure is headed to Casterly rock. Yet I would again point to Feast and Jamie's own response and reaction to the news of BF escape. Edmure tells Jamie his uncle was always a strong swimmer and it was easy for him to slip under the gates at the waterline. Yet Jamie notes Edmunds reaction to BF escape and Jamie notes he's mighty pleased with himself for a man meant to spend the rest of his life in captivity. Which prompts him to double Edmunds guard. This is one of the pieces evidence that ppl give that shows BF is headed to rescue his nephew. I tend to think not. While I agree he's headed West it's not to free Edmure until he reaches CR. The BF and members of the BWB have a wedding to attend.

Mallister is or was under siege but still alive. Yet I think he might be a wild card.

I almost guarantee that the Great Jon will want vengeance for his son The North Remembers. As per Feast all Frey prisoners were to be turned over to the crown. Yet if memory serves Jamie makes this deal within hearing of Edmure. The Great Jon was left in the west and has knowledge of the plunder taken from Robb time in the west. Not to mention he was Robb greatest and biggest northern supporter. The trident lords and the BWB are hand and fist with each other. Jamie notes how it felt that RR was surrounded by a ring of invisible eyes. They speak of this at castle Darryl and how the small folk dare to lie to their lord and we're hiding the outlaws. I also would like to point out all the naked dead soldiers whom Jamie, Brienne, Ayra have noted in the PoVs. 

Then there is Howland Reed. Again his knowledge of who Jon really maybe along with knowledge of the will again places him in a position of strength but given his knowledge also makes him a wildcard. Who knows what he has been up to while Reed was loyal to Ned who knows if it extends to Jon. While I think it will he has the potential to be a huge factor.

Before I make my argument about BF headed west let me first point out his other options and why I reject them and how it relates to Jon.

In Feast Jamie notest and is told several things about the situation on the Trident. First is the situation on the Trident and the siege of RR. That siege engines have been build, the platform for Edmure, the position of the different camps. Western men on the furthest bank, Trident lords in the middle and positioned on the same river mouth BF escaped upon and the freyes on the riverbank closest to the Twins.  In the war council things go sideways but one thing stands out in my mind and that's 2 different lords mention to Jamie the siege on Blackwood could be lifted if he went himself. That Blackwood would listen to Jamie and would make terms with him rather than Bracken. What I find curious is that it's almost like they are trying to get Jamie in position so to speak. Jamie also nate several of the Trident lords that are missing and even his cousin tells Jamie he believes them to still be wolfish at heart. Jamie is also told that before the siege BF picked the land clean and turned out all useless mouths from RR.

So Jamie makes his deal with Edmure and part of this deal is that any man from the RR side may take the black. Two men who had been in Horsteen service for a long time 40 years took that option.  Yet these men are knights and have spent plenty of time in both Horsteen and BF company and has been mentioned and proved to be true knights are called upon to act as envoys. I make the logical jump that BF and Edmure are going to use these men to speak in their stead with several groups on their way north, all without drawing attention to themselves because those groups all happen to be upon their route north.

Maiden Poole is the furthest that Jamie sent guards for these two men. Next the would hit the three sisters, gull town, white harbor and lastly the wall.

Maiden Poole by the time they would have reached it would have been held by a skeleton crew of Tarlys army. Tarly would have had to head to KL because of MT trouble with the faith. From Briennes reaction to Lord Mooton and his response to Tarlys justice I get the impression he's not overly impressed. 

The Three Sisters now this bit to me is interesting. Davos lands on Sisterton and given help by the Lord there. Yet a couple of things I would like to point out, first the Lord asks the Lys pirate. Now what business could he have with him? Mayhap he wants to hire him for service. Yet why would they have any need of the pirate the Valencia has taken no parts of the fighting but sistertons liege lord has armed his 7 sons and with war horses. Seems as if the Lord's of the Three sisters are preparing for somethingbut the question is what?

I would now like to drag your attention the this lords sigil and part of patchfaces prophecy. Spider crab is the sigil. Patchface at Karstarks wedding make the statement along the lines of under the sea we shall blow seashell, be lead by mermen and ride on crabs. Each of these is a sigil from the vale, WH and the Three Sisters.

Another curious thing about that meeting is the tale about the goings on between them and White Harbor. As I don't have my copy of Dance I suggest a reread of Davos time in both White Harbor and Three Sisters. This lord made it clear that they have no liking of Stannis and they fell he's come north with his tale tucked between his legs. While Davos believes it's because they don't want to pick wrong or back the wrong kimg. I tend to agree to disagree. They have no intention of backing the lannisters seeing as he sent Davos on to WH and they have no fear of Cersei but sir Kaven is another matter. Because if he ruled the Lannisters stood a chance of winning their war. But they aren't backing Stannis either. So who does that leave? For all we know those knight have made past this portion of the trip and have extended their hand of friendship to them and head to treat with the Lords Declarent. 

Then they hit White Harbor. Given the time frameof how long Davos  was in the wolf den I am think that the Knights arrived. Mandel removed and secured the alliegence of Stannis  top advisor. By claiming support to Stannis, yet there is more at work. From Clash to Dance we keep hearing about Manderlys health. In the chat with mandrely and Davos he tells us him taking along time in the privy is common knowledhe. The guy selling apples remarks upon it as well. Lady Dustin in her meeting with The on remarks she doesn't think he'll survive thus coming battle. Manderlys behavior after the wedding and in the hall before the fight is curious as well. In the convoy between Bolton, Dustin and her cousins. Dustin goes out of her way to make Manderlys look innocent. Yet in the great hall Manderlys goes out of his way to provoke a fight between himself and the Frey faction. Going so far as to get several of his chins sliced off. It's almost like Dustin had a mirror ball and could tell the future. Yet they seem to be working at cross purposes. Which I will go as far to say is misdirection. Lady Dustin knows Roose is guilty and she hates Ramsays. There's no way her loyalty to the Bolton runs deep. I think it's more like she's buying time... 2 possiblities. Rickon or Jon. For the north I don't get the impression that Stannis is even a factor. 

Again I would point your attention to the convo between Davos and Manderly. This time when they speak of snow being black. Davos and the readers first impression he's talking about Ramsays. But I would stipulate he knows about the will via possibly Glover and Mormont on their way home. The two knights as well. Given that Glover would come first this gives Manderly and Glover to throw some balls in the air. Like coming up with a cover story for why Glover is in the city and why Manderly is denying Glover request when clearly WH is in a state of combat readiness. Yet according to rumor and his statement in court that WH is wary of war. So why then is glover still in the city and why doesn't he pop up at WF to put is case before the Warden if the north. Then the Knights show up, with whatever info they have gathered from their travels and about the BF intentions regarding the will. This being the second time it's been mentioned. Now Manderly has new info such as these are the resources and support Jon has in the North and on the trident tin addition to whether the Vale will lend support. Manderly may have decided the only way to circumvent Jon rise to power is bringing back Rickon. This gives Manderly the option of backing Rickon or if the tide turns against having a boy king (a child lord is the bane of any house, Rose Bolton), to back Jon. Yet I would also theorize that Manderly knowing time is short wants to give his son some ,sense of deniablity depending on how things shake out. For I don't think Manderly intends to return or has plans to make himself a cause for his  to raise his banner against Bolton.

I don't think I need to speak on either Alys Karstark or the Clans men they respect Jon and will help him.

Another faction of support Wildlings and his true brothers of the nights watch. The Wildlings might hinder his cause there a wild card.

I can't explain all of it it's too long going point for point by person. So I'll just try incorporate their individual partsender while making my case.

So as for Robb will. I've given evidence as to why I believe the BF is supporting Jon, while also touching upon others who know of existence and how or why they may be brought into the Northern fold. The will was signed by several individuals that are alive and are honor bound to enforce. Now we don't know the location but I will say even without the physical paper there are men and women who know its existence and there's evidence that ppl and going to enforce it.

Stannis March to Deepwood Motte helps Jones cause because it's Jons idea, his scouts, his food, clothing and lastly his armour making it posdible. All it takes is one mouth while in the clans mountains  to inform them that it was Jona idea. The North already knows the two have made common cause. It's not a stretch for them to assume Jon dispatched Stannis to clean out the Ironborn. So depending on how the news of Stannis defeat of the Ironborn is perceived is how this action will work for Jon.

Karstark marriage maybe seen as a mending in the rift between the two families. Alys went to the wall seeking his protection  not as the LC but as the last son of Ned Stark. Jon has earned the goodwill of house Karstark and even shown the north that he can play the part of king. She sought protection he gave her that and a small army while removing an advisory in the Thenn. Possibly garnering his goodwill as well as he is now a southron lord with a seat.

 

so then there are your wildcards from the very beginning of the situation and how their plays on the board effect the choices of other board pieces.

Mandely and Glover I've already explained. I think they have positioned themselves to blow which way is best suited to them. I think mandEly wants to serve but also to shape the North. Hince the fleet, recovering Rickon, removing Davos, taking no hostages to WF. All these plays give Mandel options and opportunities to help shape his family in a greater scheme within the northern political structure. Whether as his family being named admiral of the fleet, master of coin as he has the mints, silver and put forth the idea. 

Glover given the events at his home might be more receptive to Jobs ascention.

Now Lady Dustin is a tricky one as mentioned I don't think she's with Bolton and on some level I think that she's made cause with Mandely. I think she won't go with Mandel when the time comes to openly declare. Her convoy with Theon is interesting expecially the one in the crypt. It illustrated a couple of points for me. One being the person she's truly mad at for not being made a Stark is Cat. Another is her hatred of Ned stems more from his choice of bride than the loss of her husband's bones. She wants her vengeance and what better way than denying Cats son the throne? It spits on both Cat and Ned memory expecially if the choice is made after Reed reveals any knowledge he has on jobs heritage.

Asha is another interesting one and where her loyalties may turn to lie might surprise us. As of the Kings moot Asha points out the need for more land. Dustin promised her land and given her gentle treatment of her and kids might help her case. As mandrel points out he needs sailors for his ships those that truly know and understand the Sea. Here come Asha ready made for the task, even with her terms on the table land exchange for knowledge and sailors. Really simple. Not to mention Asha doesn't have much options with her uncle and husband alive. Along with her needing Theon alive to reverse kings moot. Swinging her support his sway for theon life might take some swallowing but it could happen expecially with Jon having tasted the other side.

Battery dying explain those last 5 later

 

 

 

 

 

On 9/23/2016 at 0:19 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lots to address, but I'm on my phone, and my fingers are clumsy, so wll stick with addressing the glaring misrepresentation of my Riverlands argument.

The Riverlanders have no need of swearing to Jon. They merely swear to the Lord of Riverrun. Which,once Edmure dies, rightfully is Bran, and after him Rickon. Then they follow that lord, who will naturally be Jon's ally.

As for Sansa, imagine her as the Lady Dustin of the Vale. Only with her (sadly) dead lord's newborn giving her way more legitimacy than Lady Dustin actually has in Barrowton. Steering the Vale forces where she sees fit.

Else what's ths point of all the effort to place her in the Vale, teach her politics and giving her this clearly developmental character arc to eventual power.

 

On 9/23/2016 at 4:51 PM, Protagoras said:

Have been running short with time recently so I will just say this about the Riverlands.

The Tullys were never that big in the first place, they have been lords paramount for only 300 years, and their authority during this period seems to be lacking. They also have very powerful bannermen. Furthermore, they are in a tough spot atm, few and removed from power. Why would other Riverlords risk their own money and power to win him back Riverrun when they can take it for themselves or someone connected to them?

But lets say that Edmure or someone else survive (or the Stark kids for that matter) - who will relegitimize house Tully? Who will give them back their lord paramountship? Who will return them Riverrun? Holding it with a ragged BWB host is not "return them Riverrun". Not when the dragons arrive.

And the dragons have no reason to restore that traitorous family that helped the rebels crush their dynasty. They might not hate them, but why raise them up. Even if an alliance with the North makes it politically possible why not give it directly to Sansa, with whatever House name she prefer. And even they somehow get the Riverrun back - why a lord paramountship? Is Jon that good at oral sex so he can convince Daenerys into this? Because this certainly needs alot of convincing.

From a Targaryen perspective - They have rebelled twice against the crown, why give them a third chance? The Tullys are history and who is the Lord of Riverrun might not be relevant at all. Who cares which Stark kid that is next in line after Edmure? That inheritance simply wont happen. Even if Jon is king he is going to give it to the persons he trust the most at that position and that can´t be the Tullys.

 

[Protagoras]

12 hours ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Snip

Well, certainly there is a possibility that all these groups work for Jon, but at this point is very much speculation - especially the parts where everyone works for just Jon and not simply try to get vengeance on the Freys and Boltons, or the Starks in general, or Stannis. In addition, the communication aspect is unlikely - just because Manderley work against the Boltons doesn´t necessary mean he know about the will or that his is in communication with other people conspiring. Just because Blackfish is missing doesn´t mean he will help Jon, but its rather more likely that he will assist BWB in retrieving Edmure, and BWB have no reason for working for Jon either - considering their leader. The Tullys (as I said) have no reason to love Jon and its pretty convoluted that they would. 

I think I again need to point out that the reason Robb was elected kings in the Riverlands too, was due to his familybond to lord Hoster and the common war against the Westerlands as well - none of which exist with Jon nor should it just be conviniently be forgotten to motivate this mega-conspiracy, that somehow all thie key players in different regions seem to know about, yet noone else. And while you might think certain connections exist, there is very little pointing on that this is the case. Hell, its not even very likely. It just assumes everyone likes Jon and want to help him, just like when christians assume God exist and then try to work from that starting point. You havn´t given evidence in the way you might think you have and its VERY unlikely that all these poeople somehow concludes that supporting Jon is the best way achieving things, especially the riverlanders.