Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

TFR has the idea that the North (sort of the help with its allied controlled by Northmen, i.e. the Riverlands and the Vale) will fare much better through the crisis caused by the Others (and somehow also by winter) than the South because there will be wights all over the place in the South (due to the Others raising all the corpses down there suddenly) while there will be a lot of (warm?) safe havens in the North. Also, the South will get an even worse bloodletting than the Riverlands and the North due to a greyscale epidemic and more infighting.

I agree on the pandemic (although Shireen might also spread a similar plague up in the North) but certainly not on the wights thing. The best thing the Others can do is to keep the people in the South ignorant about their existence and their powers. Not to mention that the idea that a long-distance resurrection of wights is pretty unlikely in the first place. Nothing suggests that this is even possible.

My personal guess is that it is very likely that Dany might arrive at a time when the Wall has already fallen and the Northmen are retreating/fleeing down south, thus making a political conflict between the two factions irrelevant. The idea that the people could survive in the North after the Wall has fallen - if it falls, that is - makes no sense at all.

Nor does the idea that Dany would go out of her way to offer help to the Northmen while they haven't submitted to her rule at a time in which the Wall still stands. But it doesn't make any sense at all that any sane person in the North would not do anything in his/her power to win the friendship of Daenerys Targaryen and her vast forces upon her arrival. If the Others have not yet made their move they could need any help they can get. Mormont and Aemon begged all the Five Kings to support the Night's Watch.

And once winter really shows its teeth the situation in the North should become much worse than it is right now. War continues and the stores are pretty much empty. Castles (Winterfell, Torrhen's Square, Deepwood Motte) have been plundered.

Jon Snow would most likely lick his aunt's boots if needed to gain her support in this fight. There is no question about that. Hell, he even openly admits that he could need a dragon at the Wall. What do you think would he agree to if this was actually a realistic prospect?

You seem to be over-estimating the timeframe for all of this to happen. I don't see the in-story timeframe covering more than another year, perhaps a year-and-half. Considering that the entire series has covered just over 2 years to date.

And a year of even harsh Winter is nothing that the North has not dealt with before. So the snow, lack of food, cold and bad weather is not going to be anything that they cannot handle. The real issue will be the Others and their undead armies. Don't get me wrong. Winter is terrible, but it is only devastating once it extends over a long period of time.

.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You seem to be over-estimating the timeframe for all of this to happen. I don't see the in-story timeframe covering more than another year, perhaps a year-and-half. Considering that the entire series has covered just over 2 years to date.

Can you make a outline what happens when in your scenario? Including all the stuff that happens in the South? How long would your grey plague pandemic take to spread in the middle of winter (where people should be not inclined to travel so much)? How quickly can Euron move his ships? How quickly can the other armies wherever they want to go? Given the vast distances and the fact it took Tyrion, Quentyn, and Victarion an entire book to (not) reach Dany I'm not as optimistic as you that things will go as quickly.

Especially considering that a story should be told as well in-between. People have to talk, interact, make mistake, reconsider, and so on.

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And a year of even harsh Winter is nothing that the North has not dealt with before. So the snow, lack of food, cold and bad weather is not going to be anything that they cannot handle. The real issue will be the Others and their undead armies. Don't get me wrong. Winter is terrible, but it is only devastating once it extends over a long period of time.

Tell that an army stuck in a snow. Or another army stuck a castle that has been barely repaired. The glass gardens and heating systems of Winterfell have been destroyed. The people in there right now are eating way to much food which well then be missed by other people later on.

Warfare in winter is deadly, not just in Westeros but in our world as well. You have to march all day, sleep on the ground with insufficient protection against the cold, and so on. You can freeze to death even if you are well-fed - which nobody in the North will be thanks to the lack of food.

It matters not whether Stannis or the Boltons win because the victor might take away even more precious food from the poor peasants to feed his soldiers. And then those people will die in a few weeks or months because they are literally without food. To my knowledge you last about a fortnight without food, depending the state you are in. If you are also suffering from the cold you should be dead in about a week.

The North can (sort of) survive six-year-winters if there is no war on its soil and additional mouths (old men and the like) go off to war to die but your claim that a North losing a war wreaking itself apart in another civil war is going to be well-prepared for winter is very strange idea.

The Starks are afraid of winter even in summer. They are constantly talking about it. Ned never looks forward to winter, he fears it. The idea that they are now prepared for it with most of the crops either destroyed or never brought in in the first places makes no sense.

I'd give no prognosis how many years the series is going to cover. But the idea that Dany is going to teleport to Westeros in a few months is not very likely. Considering the distances it should take her months to return to Slaver's Bay, and even more months to move her army and navy to Westeros. And even more months to conquer the continent if that's what she is going to do. Armies have to be deployed and march and win battles. And all of that is going to take much more time in winter.

Assuming there will be much marching in winter in the first place.

In general, just re-watch or reread interviews of George's were he outlines the setting. He clearly sees the Others as a threat to everybody. A threat the people fail to recognize. If there is no alliance between all the people there won't be any victory. And regardless how you turn it, Dany will always be in the more powerful position because she could just take her dragons and armies and leave Westeros to itself. If she sees all is going to hell there and some ice demons are taking over she could go to the Summer Isles or some other place down in the far South which the Others are not likely to reach in her lifetime. And then Westeros would be screwed.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Can you make a outline what happens when in your scenario? Including all the stuff that happens in the South? How long would your grey plague pandemic take to spread in the middle of winter (where people should be not inclined to travel so much)? How quickly can Euron move his ships? How quickly can the other armies wherever they want to go? Given the vast distances and the fact it took Tyrion, Quentyn, and Victarion an entire book to (not) reach Dany I'm not as optimistic as you that things will go as quickly.

Especially considering that a story should be told as well in-between. People have to talk, interact, make mistake, reconsider, and so on.

Tell that an army stuck in a snow. Or another army stuck a castle that has been barely repaired. The glass gardens and heating systems of Winterfell have been destroyed. The people in there right now are eating way to much food which well then be missed by other people later on.

Warfare in winter is deadly, not just in Westeros but in our world as well. You have to march all day, sleep on the ground with insufficient protection against the cold, and so on. You can freeze to death even if you are well-fed - which nobody in the North will be thanks to the lack of food.

It matters not whether Stannis or the Boltons win because the victor might take away even more precious food from the poor peasants to feed his soldiers. And then those people will die in a few weeks or months because they are literally without food. To my knowledge you last about a fortnight without food, depending the state you are in. If you are also suffering from the cold you should be dead in about a week.

The North can (sort of) survive six-year-winters if there is no war on its soil and additional mouths (old men and the like) go off to war to die but your claim that a North losing a war wreaking itself apart in another civil war is going to be well-prepared for winter is very strange idea.

The Starks are afraid of winter even in summer. They are constantly talking about it. Ned never looks forward to winter, he fears it. The idea that they are now prepared for it with most of the crops either destroyed or never brought in in the first places makes no sense.

I'd give no prognosis how many years the series is going to cover. But the idea that Dany is going to teleport to Westeros in a few months is not very likely. Considering the distances it should take her months to return to Slaver's Bay, and even more months to move her army and navy to Westeros. And even more months to conquer the continent if that's what she is going to do. Armies have to be deployed and march and win battles. And all of that is going to take much more time in winter.

Assuming there will be much marching in winter in the first place.

In general, just re-watch or reread interviews of George's were he outlines the setting. He clearly sees the Others as a threat to everybody. A threat the people fail to recognize. If there is no alliance between all the people there won't be any victory. And regardless how you turn it, Dany will always be in the more powerful position because she could just take her dragons and armies and leave Westeros to itself. If she sees all is going to hell there and some ice demons are taking over she could go to the Summer Isles or some other place down in the far South which the Others are not likely to reach in her lifetime. And then Westeros would be screwed.

That is simply assuming so much.

Assuming Dany keeps all of her Dragons in the coming Dance. Assuming that Bran does not simply take a dragon from her with his powers. Assuming that Dragons are even effective against the Others in the first place.

In any case, on the timing issue. Recall that even in the ancient Bronze Age, it took a generation for the Long Night to bring humanity to its knees. Why should it go any faster  this time around? 10 years into the Long Night the North was still populated by humans. The Boltons, Umbers, Starks, Glovers etc. did not all migrate to the North after the Long Night ended. They were already there, and lived through it. And that was a 10 year Long Night, or longer.

 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

@Lord Varys

I'm still disagreeing that Howland would have any knowledge of the fall of Winterfell, or that he would allow it to happen because it was imperative Bran had to go to BR.

Since we don't have Howland himself, if there really was such a thing afoot, one must assume his son and daughter would have been on it (especially his son, because

- The 3EC was visiting him in dreams and telling him what to do

- Jojen was the guy who called the shots in the whole group

- His entire role was to be the mentor of Bran and take him there.)

 

So, let's see Jojen's attitude:

Quote

Meera thought so too, later that night when she and Joien met Bran in his room to play a three-sided game of tiles, but her brother shook his head. "The things I see in green dreams cant be changed."

That made his sister angry. "Why would the gods send a warning if we cant heed it and change whats to come?"

"I dont know," Jojen said sadly.

"If you were Alebelly, you'd probably jump into the well to have done with it! He should fight, and Bran should too."

Me? Bran felt suddenly afraid.
"What should I fight? Am I going to drown too?"

Meera looked at him guiltily. " I shouldnt have said . . ."

He could tell that she was hiding something. "Did you see me in a green dream?" he asked Jojen nervously." Was I drowned?"

"Not drowned". Jojen spoke as if every word pained him. "I dreamed of the man who came today, the one they call Reek. You and your brother lay dead at his feet, and he was skinning off your faces with a long red blade."

Meera rose to her feet. "If I went to the dungeon, I could drive a spear right through his heart. How could he murder Bran if he was dead?"

"The gaolers will stop you", Jojen said. "The guards. And if you tell them why you want him dead, theyll never believe."

I have guards too, Bran reminded them. Alebelly and Poxy Tym and Hayhead and the rest.

Jojens mossy eyes were full of pity. "They wont be able to stop him, Bran. I couldnt see why, but I saw the end of it. I saw you and Rickon in your crypts, down in the dark with all the dead kings and their stone wolves."

No, Bran thought. No. "If I went away . . . To Greywater, or to the crow, someplace far where they couldnt find me . . ."

"It will not matter. The dream was green, Bran, and the green dreams do not lie."

I think it's very clear from this passage what Jojen's attitude towards his greendreams is.

If, as you are saying, it was so imperative that Bran go to BR, they should have been panicking at this point, correct? Jojen should have been making plans to get Bran out of there/kill Reek pronto.

Yet he doesn't. The only explanation is that Jojen knows his dreams will come true, whatever happens, and there's no point trying to prevent or accelerate this occurrence. The idea that Howland (or even BR) for that matter could have perfect knowledge of the future and allowed Winterfell to fall purposefully so that Bran could go there makes no sense, to me at all.

I am not disputing that HR would be in contact with BR and COTF in some way - that is almost certain. But, there was really nothing preplanned in all of this. If that was the case, we have to go back right to Bran's fall itself - that was the major event which triggered Bran's abilities and interest in all of this, and allowed him to even stay back in Winterfell. We have to then assume all the events upto that point leading to Bran fleeing Winterfell were predicted correctly by Howland. Which is very unlikely to me.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

On 9/25/2016 at 4:59 PM, Lord Varys said:

My idea is that there has to be some proof independent of Jon Snow's existence that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married. We don't yet know why they went underground and did not live a happy short life on Dragonstone or at court. My idea is that George is going to reveal that Rhaegar and Lyanna married somewhere rather publicly shortly after the abduction (I have Maidenpool in mind because of the Florian-Jonquil association and the fact that Rhaegar had friends there). That then caused Aerys to call for Rhaegar's head because he had no permission to do such a thing and because he saw it as proof for the Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy he already saw in the coronation of Lyanna at Harrenhal. Brandon and Rickard were executed as Rhaegar's accomplices, not because Brandon had threatened him. Aerys wouldn't have had a problem with anyone threatening his ingrate son at that time. However, the Starks insisting that they were no traitors and refusing to confess their crimes could explain why they were treated the way they were.

Is there any reason why you assume events went down this way? I would think if there was a public marriage between R and L it would have been well-known information. Plus, didn't Brandon Stark go to the RK calling out for Rheagar to die?

 

[Lion of the West]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm going with Bobby Baratheon's definition. He (and Ned, to a lesser degree) defined what (noble born) masculinity is about in this series.

 I don't think that Robert Baratheon is a very good idea of the masculine definition, if a single ideal man could be found, but personally I think that Dunk the Tall and Baelor Breakspear are closer to what constitutes ideal men.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is wrong. The dragons were irrelevant. The Caltrops plotting the murder of Ulf and Hugh were just cowards. They were neither with their dragons nor close to them while they were in Tumbleton. The dragons were not kept inside the ruins of the town nor directly in the camp. The Caltrops were just too craven to attack Hugh/Ulf and their followers with their own men-at-arms. If they had done so they should have been able to overwhelm them. And if not, if Ulf and Hugh had more followers at this time than the Caltrops combined then Hugh actually had a very good reason to style himself king.

I'll call you out on that for the baseless slander it is. You rather make it sound like something very easy but fact is that Hugh Hammer only needed to get a glimpse at a gathering of gathered men-at-arms to lead his men straight to Vermithor and without planning there's always the chance that thing's don't go your way. So to kill a man who is constantly surrounded by armed men and who can't be allowed a chance to make a run for a kilometre or so, that requires planning. I am a fair bit suprised that you'd call it cowardice, given your username, to not jump into action and hope for the best. And do note that the Caltrops did plan to strike themselves on the very same day that Addam Velaryon attacked them. So there's goes the idea that they were cowards.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is irrelevant, too. We are not talking about what Peake actually wanted but about a scenario in which Daeron was crowned. Such a scenario entails that Peake was okay with that plan since Daeron most certainly wouldn't have crowned if he had opposed the idea.

 Then we are so far into the "maybes", "ifs" and "perhaps" that we could as well discuss a scenario where Daemon kills Rhaenyra and her children while Alicent kills off her own brood and the two them marry to rule the Westeros together in true love.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Trystane Truefyre was (allegedly) Aegon II's half-brother.

 So they say, but there should have been more people that Viserys who had a Valyrian look back in those days. In fact I think that him being a bastard of Daemon seems more likely given Daemon's earlier rumblings in the slums of King's Landing.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaenyra never harmed Aegon II personally. Daeron I or Aemond I wouldn't have done so, either, but would have stood between him and his throne. And if they hadn't abdicated again Aegon II could only have regained his throne over their corpses.

 And you can argue that Criston Cole never did Rhaenyra any harm since he didn't do physical harm to her either.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But the scenario we are talking about is a scenario in which they don't happily surrender their crowns because they like being king (or their followers like that they are king).

 It would have been a problem if they didn't give up their crowns but I see no reason as to why they wouldn't give up their crowns or take them in the first place.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason for that. You know that Rhaenyra displeased Aegon in a more serious manner than Otto ever did.

Which is kind of my point. Aegon killing Rhaenyra is not a show how he would have dealt with others, only that when he got hold of his lifelong enemy, he killed her off without doing the "Bond villain" thing.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We are not talking about King Aemond postponing his coronation. He could have proclaimed himself king as Aegon II's heir even before he retook KL. Or there could have been convincing rumors that Aegon II was dead.

There could have been, but where there?

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you don't see Aemond's tasteless and outright treasonous comments as evidence I can't help you. Saying the crown of his brother suits him, Aemond, much better than it ever did Aegon effectively means that Aegon is not suited to be king and he, Aemond, is should be king. Aemond tasted royal power when he was Prince Regent and there is little reason to believe that he would ever have given up that power if he had regained the Iron Throne.

I see them, but I try to put them into context. Aemond didn't crown himself, even when Aegon missing and Aemond had the biggest dragon and an army with him. And seeing how Aemond was a warrior and not a schemer I don't see it as very likely that he would bypass this chance to claim the crown to claim it further one. And like I mentioned before, not once have a person who was serious about claiming the crown, waited with crowning himself, or herself, untill they held the capital, that I can recall. They kind of did it on the spot to mark how serious they were.

[Lord Varys]

@Little Scribe of Naath

I'm willing to let that Howland thing go until we actually meet the man. I admit that there is a good chance that he might not actually have foreseen the Theon thing. But it is still very odd that Howland does literally nothing to help prepare the North for the things to come. Why not meet with Robert and Ned while they were crossing the Neck? Why not try to urge Robb to march his army back home when he is crossing the Neck? Why not personally accompany Robb to help him free Ned and win the war so that he could then prepare the North for the Others?

It is not just the Winterfell thing. It is Howland Reed doing nothing we can see the entire time that makes me somewhat convinced that he and Bloodraven don't play the game of thrones at all. And if they don't do that, then it is unlikely that they care who is supposed to be king. Hell, I'm much more inclined to believe that both Bloodraven-Bran and Howland are going to use Jon Snow (and Dany and Tyrion, and all the other 'heroes') as their weapons against the Heart of Winter. They won't care whether they break or shatter in the process if they keep the upper hand in the end.

In general, though, you should keep in mind that Jojen's fatalistic view of things in regards to his dreams is just his personal view. If Bloodraven shapes his dreams to manipulate him in a certain direction then all bets are off. And from Mel and Qyburn we know that some people believe the future can be changed.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That is simply assuming so much.

Assuming Dany keeps all of her Dragons in the coming Dance. Assuming that Bran does not simply take a dragon from her with his powers. Assuming that Dragons are even effective against the Others in the first place.

Well, that all comes after Dany's arrival, doesn't it? I'm never going into any details with whom Dany will be allied once she arrives besides assuming that she won't be allied with Aegon's supporters (or Euron's or Stannis' or other independent factions still in the field). The Dance is most likely only going to take place after Dany has arrived if it is the name for a war in Westeros in which she takes part.

And why Bran or anybody of the good guys should want to steal a dragon from Dany I don't understand at all. That would just gain them a dragon, not the allegiance of the men Dany commands. And presumably they will be important, too.

Jon believes a dragon would come in handy at the Wall. I agree with him there.

Quote

In any case, on the timing issue. Recall that even in the ancient Bronze Age, it took a generation for the Long Night to bring humanity to its knees. Why should it go any faster  this time around? 10 years into the Long Night the North was still populated by humans. The Boltons, Umbers, Starks, Glovers etc. did not all migrate to the North after the Long Night ended. They were already there, and lived through it. And that was a 10 year Long Night, or longer.

Perhaps the tales exaggerate the length of the Long Night? Even if that's not the case then we have no idea how those people managed to survive in a realistic setting.

The realistic way in which George describes the lethal qualities of cold and winter in ADwD strongly - take the quick death of Harwood Fell after he fell into the cold water, for instance - does not make me holding my breath that we are going to meet fierce Northmen who can live of snow in the coming winter. George is not writing a fairy-tale.

3 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Is there any reason why you assume events went down this way? I would think if there was a public marriage between R and L it would have been well-known information. Plus, didn't Brandon Stark go to the RK calling out for Rheagar to die?

My assumption is that a lot of people know a lot more about Rhaegar and Lyanna than they have told us up to this point. Even POVs like Connington, Cersei, Jaime, Selmy, Arianne, and so forth.

George obviously keeps this whole affair and the things surrounding it a closely guarded secret for plot reasons. Telling us Rhaegar and Lyanna were married would pretty much reveal the truth about Jon's heritage and he doesn't yet want to do it.

It is also apparent that TWoIaF covered events up to the abduction in great detail but left both Rhaegar's journey and the trial against the Starks in the dark. We don't yet know what Rickard and the other lords were accused of. Going with Aerys being mad and projecting Brandon's guilt on all the other made some sense prior to TWoIaF but there we learned that Aerys mistrusted Rhaegar and considered to disinherit him. The fact that he thought Rhaegar and the Starks were plotting against him and that the coronation was a confirmation of that is actually a huge eyeopener. Such an Aerys has no reason to go to insane lengths to defend his son. Aerys should actually have relished at the idea of Brandon killing his ingrate son. He should not have defended him the way he did. It also shows us why nobody expected a Stark-Baratheon-Arryn rebellion because the court and Aerys thought the Starks were conspiring with Rhaegar - which would make a Baratheon-Stark alliance unlikely (because Lyanna couldn't marry both Rhaegar and Robert).

Then there is the problem of Rhaegar and Lyanna just disappearing for months. Why did they do that? It makes no sense unless we assume that they were not welcome at court because Aerys considered them traitors. If Aerys had had no issues with Rhaegar at this point then Rhaegar's help would have been welcome at court - especially if Aerys actually killed Brandon, Rickard, and company to protect Rhaegar from Brandon.

Once Aerys finally realized that he had been wrong, that Rhaegar never had conspired with the Starks he forgave him and people searched for him which eventually led to Hightower finding him. Earlier on Aerys showed his change of hearts by naming Jon Connington Hand.

[Jeeves]

On 9/21/2016 at 3:18 PM, Jaak said:

World of Ice and Fire mentions that Aerys formally disinherited Rhaegaer´s children - in the short time after Trident.

At that time:

Connington was exile

Barristan was a wounded prisoner.

So, neither would have been with Aerys to hear the announcement. But both would eventually have heard accounts of Aerys´ last days, including the fact of Aegon´s disinheritance.

How seriously are they likely to take such acts by Aerys?

Would Barristan tell Daenerys: "Yes, Aegon´s the son of your big brother, and yes, Aegon should have reigned if Aerys said nothing else, but Aerys did, and therefore Iron Throne is yours and not Aegon´s!"?

Aerys had the right to name his heir.  It is clear from that passage that he did, in fact, disinherit Rhaegar's line.  He made Viserys his heir.  Upn his passing, the line of succession and the right to rule passed to King Viserys III.  Daenerys inherited from Viserys.  She is the rightful ruler of Westeros.  Rhaegar's line was disinherited.  

[Protagoras]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

TFR has the idea that the North (sort of the help with its allied controlled by Northmen, i.e. the Riverlands and the Vale) will fare much better through the crisis caused by the Others (and somehow also by winter) than the South because there will be wights all over the place in the South (due to the Others raising all the corpses down there suddenly) while there will be a lot of (warm?) safe havens in the North. Also, the South will get an even worse bloodletting than the Riverlands and the North due to a greyscale epidemic and more infighting.

I agree on the pandemic (although Shireen might also spread a similar plague up in the North) but certainly not on the wights thing. The best thing the Others can do is to keep the people in the South ignorant about their existence and their powers. Not to mention that the idea that a long-distance resurrection of wights is pretty unlikely in the first place. Nothing suggests that this is even possible.

My personal guess is that it is very likely that Dany might arrive at a time when the Wall has already fallen and the Northmen are retreating/fleeing down south, thus making a political conflict between the two factions irrelevant. The idea that the people could survive in the North after the Wall has fallen - if it falls, that is - makes no sense at all.

Nor does the idea that Dany would go out of her way to offer help to the Northmen while they haven't submitted to her rule at a time in which the Wall still stands. But it doesn't make any sense at all that any sane person in the North would not do anything in his/her power to win the friendship of Daenerys Targaryen and her vast forces upon her arrival. If the Others have not yet made their move they could need any help they can get. Mormont and Aemon begged all the Five Kings to support the Night's Watch.

And once winter really shows its teeth the situation in the North should become much worse than it is right now. War continues and the stores are pretty much empty. Castles (Winterfell, Torrhen's Square, Deepwood Motte) have been plundered.

Jon Snow would most likely lick his aunt's boots if needed to gain her support in this fight. There is no question about that. Hell, he even openly admits that he could need a dragon at the Wall. What do you think would he agree to if this was actually a realistic prospect?

Ehhh....how? The Others are coming from their direction after all and the south isn´t going to get more snow. Are we talking some kind of supershield or some kind or eternal heat due to the awesomeness of the North or something? Because otherwise I can´t see this work. Safe havens? Why would there be safe havens? And furthermore, its not like the others have been advancing fast so far - They still havn´t reached the wall after 5 books. I can´t see them sprint down the vastness of the north any time soon. And certainly not before killing alot in the North. And the next places they will go to is Riverlands and the Vale, aka the places allied with the North if this theory holds. It still makes it the Norths issue to deal with.

The pandemic quite honestly sound strange too. We have one person with Greyscale in the south - JonCon and his reason for having it is not to infect others, but to speed up his arc, to make him choose the ruthless methods and "be Tywin" in order to put Aegon on the throne before he dies.

As for Daenerys, she will arrive in the very late of WoW (wouldn´´t surprise me if it is the final chapter) and hopefully have better to do than help a bunch of beggars who doesn´t want to swear fealty at al (at least if their fans is to be believed). I think is likely that they will seek help too, the question is - will they actually offer something?

Because I have to admit - I am not so sure about Jons submissive nature. He showed that pretty clearly that despite him wanting to unite the realms of men, he couldn´t help himself provoking the Boltons (which are clearly men), while accepting people like the Weeper into the fold. If Daenerys calls Ned a traitor for example - will he just take that? Or maybe he will see Daenerys as evil, because she disagrees with what methods should be used? He does strike me as emotional, as a person who would promise alot and not necessary hold his end of the bargain. Maybe he will be distracted by his “heroic instinct” to help certain individuals (say someone Daenerys wants to kill), forgets the bigger picture, and places himself and the larger struggle at risk (not the first time). Jon doesn´t quite "get" the greater good concept. If he had realized that allying with the incredibly nasty Boltons would be a necessary to better fight the Others. He might only submit IF he doesn´t have to sacrifice any principle over it.

Besides, I speculates that he will be returned as ZombieJon, with a darker heart or alternately more feral due to the influence of Ghost as well as their merging. Or maybe he will take his new kingly role as a promise - to never yield the North. I see several outcomes with Jon being stupid in other words and in that case, I (again) hopes Daenerys simply takes her army and go back to King´s landing, wishing him good luck fighting the Others in the North, Vale and Riverlands without help and without any food from the south.

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Ehhh....how? The Others are coming from their direction after all and the south isn´t going to get more snow. Are we talking some kind of supershield or some kind or eternal heat due to the awesomeness of the North or something? Because otherwise I can´t see this work. Safe havens? Why would there be safe havens? And furthermore, its not like the others have been advancing fast so far - They still havn´t reached the wall after 5 books. I can´t see them sprint down the vastness of the north any time soon. And certainly not before killing alot in the North. And the next places they will go to is Riverlands and the Vale, aka the places allied with the North if this theory holds. It still makes it the Norths issue to deal with.

The idea is, if I remember correctly, that Bran will magically make any Northern castle with a weirwood tree some sort of magical safe heaven and that the Others will be able to resurrect all the corpses everywhere as soon as they are south of the Wall.

For some strange reason they will not really focus on killing everybody in the North first but focus on the lands down in the South.

Which I think makes no sense even if the Others were able to create wights everywhere. There are strong hints that you have be literally touched by the magic of the Others to become a wight - being either killed by them or by the unnatural cold they bring - and I don't see that happening to anybody down south while the Others are still in the North. In addition, there is a good chance that the Neck will become the major obstacle of the Others after the Wall has fallen. It should be difficult for the wights to cross the swamp and south of the Wall the magic of the Children is strongest among the crannogmen. Thus it should actually take quite some time until the Others reach the Riverlands.

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

The pandemic quite honestly sound strange too. We have one person with Greyscale in the south - JonCon and his reason for having it is not to infect others, but to speed up his arc, to make him choose the ruthless methods and "be Tywin" in order to put Aegon on the throne before he dies.

That is one reason for Jon Connington's greyscale. Another might very well be to spread his disease as a carrier in the form of the grey plague. We got way too much greyscale lore in ADwD for the sickness to be just some sort of plot device. Do we know any details about the variations of the bloody flux/Pale Mare? No. But we know a lot of stuff about greyscale - its history, the variations that exist, and so on. And Val's story also made it clear that Shireen's greyscale is going to play a role in the story, too. It might return and thus people at the Wall might be infected.

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

As for Daenerys, she will arrive in the very late of WoW (wouldn´´t surprise me if it is the final chapter) and hopefully have better to do than help a bunch of beggars who doesn´t want to swear fealty at al (at least if their fans is to be believed). I think is likely that they will seek help too, the question is - will they actually offer something?

Your timetable is somewhat optimistic. Keep in mind that a lot of POVs are going to feature in TWoW. More than there were in ADwD. And the focus of the beginning of the novel will be on the two battles George has yet to deliver - and we already know that a lot of chapters are going to cover the Battle of Meereen (which might continue after the Volantenes have arrived). The Battle of Ice and its aftermath should require quite a few Theon and Asha chapters, too. Then there is the situation at the Wall, in KL, and Aegon's campaign in the Stormlands to cover.

Dany seems to begin her own lonely story in TWoW with the Dothraki. That should take quite a few chapters in itself, lets say 5-6. How many chapters did she have in ADwD? Ten. Will she have as many chapters as this in a book which should also include more than one or two Sansa, Samwell, Brienne, Jaime, Cersei, Arya chapters? Not very likely.

In addition we have to keep in mind that Dany's people at Meereen winning the day doesn't mean they will all agree to go to Westeros as soon as possible. That decision has to be reached, and Dany's Dothraki plot might not exactly motivate her to leave for Westeros as soon as she gets back. People have to convince her to do that.

And if the Volantene slave soldiers join her cause then it is also quite clear that they will have to topple the Volantene regime on the way to Westeros to free all the slaves there. That should take quite some time, too.

Bottom line is I find it very optimistic to assume that Dany is going to reach Westeros in TWoW.

And we also have to keep in mind that the plots in Westeros don't look as if Westeros is ready for Dany yet. If there is to be a Second Dance than either Aegon or Euron (or both) have to secure their power before Dany arrives. Actually, they should make powerful alliances even before the prospect of Dany's impending arrival changes the hearts of the people they are dealing with. Most of the Targaryen loyalists should only fully join team Aegon while they believe Daenerys Targaryen is dead (thanks to the rumors that will be spread in the wake of Daznak's Pit).

Something like that is likely to take the entirety of the next book, perhaps even part of the book after that. I think George has put things in place to speed up Aegon's rise to the Iron Throne but he still has to write all those chapters. And just because he has the capital doesn't mean he has the strength to defend his throne against Daenerys should she arrive in Westeros.

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Because I have to admit - I am not so sure about Jons submissive nature. He showed that pretty clearly that despite him wanting to unite the realms of men, he couldn´t help himself provoking the Boltons (which are clearly men), while accepting people like the Weeper into the fold.

I did not mean to say he is actually submissive (but then, Ygritte clearly was in charge). I meant that pragmatism and survival instinct should dictate that Jon Snow should accept help from basically everybody with an army if the situation becomes dire enough (and it effectively already is). Perhaps even Stannis will do that (although I'm not sure about that). 

If we assume Dany takes her time there is every reason to believe that Jon might ask Aegon or Euron for help. The fact that he wanted to save a man like the Weeper from the Others shows where his priorities lie. And Euron is still a human being whatever else he might also be (not to mention that Jon would only have a very incomplete picture of King Euron anyway).

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

If Daenerys calls Ned a traitor for example - will he just take that?

That would depend on Jon's own view of Ned when Dany arrives. Assuming he already knows the truth about his parentage he might no longer be such a great fan of Eddard Stark's as he once was. And knowing that he is Daenerys Targaryen's nephew should also help him approach her on reasonably good terms. She knows about the Rhaegar-Lyanna thing, after all. Jon is most likely not going to be hellbent on antagonizing a person he knows is his aunt. There are no hints that he has any inclination to become a kinslayer.

In addition there is also the chance that Dany's view of her family and the people rebelling against her father is going to be rectified. By Tyrion, Marwyn, Selmy. Dany also will be briefed on the current political situation in Westeros by Marwyn and Tyrion which should actually change her focus from punishing the Usurper's Dogs to right the wrongs done to her people by the pretenders who wrought havoc in her kingdom in her absence - meaning the Freys and the Red Wedding, the war and butchery in the Riverlands, and so on.

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Or maybe he will see Daenerys as evil, because she disagrees with what methods should be used? He does strike me as emotional, as a person who would promise alot and not necessary hold his end of the bargain. Maybe he will be distracted by his “heroic instinct” to help certain individuals (say someone Daenerys wants to kill), forgets the bigger picture, and places himself and the larger struggle at risk (not the first time).

That would mean that Jon has by this time sufficient strength to actually challenge Daenerys on the political field. Unless the Others make no move at all until after her arrival or unless the North magically gets another 10,000 men which can be spared to be used in some political game (even if Stannis' sellswords were to arrive they would be used in the defense of the Wall not as a means to conquer Westeros) such a scenario is very unlikely to happen.

Aside from Jaime there is nobody alive right now who Dany might want to kill.

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Jon doesn´t quite "get" the greater good concept. If he had realized that allying with the incredibly nasty Boltons would be a necessary to better fight the Others. He might only submit IF he doesn´t have to sacrifice any principle over it.

Well, I agree that Jon failed to forge an alliance with the Boltons. But that's not entirely his fault. Roose and Ramsay didn't exactly make it easy for him and while the Pink Letter got Jon killed I'm not sure how he should have answered it to stay alive. Giving in to Ramsay's demands without actually knowing what had happened (i.e. whether Stannis was alive or dead) could very well get him killed, too (namely, if Stannis was alive and eventually victorious).

But then, they all might have time to learn that lesson in the wake of the destruction the Battle of Ice might wrought. Not to mention whatever is going to happen at the Wall in the wake of Jon's assassination. That could actually tear everything apart he has built.

11 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Besides, I speculates that he will be returned as ZombieJon, with a darker heart or alternately more feral due to the influence of Ghost as well as their merging. Or maybe he will take his new kingly role as a promise - to never yield the North. I see several outcomes with Jon being stupid in other words and in that case, I (again) hopes Daenerys simply takes her army and go back to King´s landing, wishing him good luck fighting the Others in the North, Vale and Riverlands without help and without any food from the south.

I agree that ZombieJon might both be darker and significantly changed. But then, if Stannis yet lives Jon might sort of disappear in the background to deal with his personal issues or even embark on some kind of solo mission. If the resurrection spell is going to change his body physically in a fiery way he might be ideally suited to do some ranging beyond the Wall. Especially if he actually realized that Bran was alive and out there.

But I agree with you that if whoever is in charge when Dany arrives is going to make demands he is most going to be forced to deal with the Others on his own. That is why this is most likely not going to happen. Keep in mind that they might actually ask other people in the South for help before Dany arrives - Aegon, Euron, possibly even Littlefinger in the Vale (Jon considered buying food in the Vale). I doubt there will be any demands connected to help coming from those people.

[Protagoras]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea is, if I remember correctly, that Bran will magically make any Northern castle with a weirwood tree some sort of magical safe heaven and that the Others will be able to resurrect all the corpses everywhere as soon as they are south of the Wall.

For some strange reason they will not really focus on killing everybody in the North first but focus on the lands down in the South.

Which I think makes no sense even if the Others were able to create wights everywhere. There are strong hints that you have be literally touched by the magic of the Others to become a wight - being either killed by them or by the unnatural cold they bring - and I don't see that happening to anybody down south while the Others are still in the North. In addition, there is a good chance that the Neck will become the major obstacle of the Others after the Wall has fallen. It should be difficult for the wights to cross the swamp and south of the Wall the magic of the Children is strongest among the crannogmen. Thus it should actually take quite some time until the Others reach the Riverlands.

That is one reason for Jon Connington's greyscale. Another might very well be to spread his disease as a carrier in the form of the grey plague. We got way too much greyscale lore in ADwD for the sickness to be just some sort of plot device. Do we know any details about the variations of the bloody flux/Pale Mare? No. But we know a lot of stuff about greyscale - its history, the variations that exist, and so on. And Val's story also made it clear that Shireen's greyscale is going to play a role in the story, too. It might return and thus people at the Wall might be infected.

Your timetable is somewhat optimistic. Keep in mind that a lot of POVs are going to feature in TWoW. More than there were in ADwD. And the focus of the beginning of the novel will be on the two battles George has yet to deliver - and we already know that a lot of chapters are going to cover the Battle of Meereen (which might continue after the Volantenes have arrived). The Battle of Ice and its aftermath should require quite a few Theon and Asha chapters, too. Then there is the situation at the Wall, in KL, and Aegon's campaign in the Stormlands to cover.

Dany seems to begin her own lonely story in TWoW with the Dothraki. That should take quite a few chapters in itself, lets say 5-6. How many chapters did she have in ADwD? Ten. Will she have as many chapters as this in a book which should also include more than one or two Sansa, Samwell, Brienne, Jaime, Cersei, Arya chapters? Not very likely.

In addition we have to keep in mind that Dany's people at Meereen winning the day doesn't mean they will all agree to go to Westeros as soon as possible. That decision has to be reached, and Dany's Dothraki plot might not exactly motivate her to leave for Westeros as soon as she gets back. People have to convince her to do that.

And if the Volantene slave soldiers join her cause then it is also quite clear that they will have to topple the Volantene regime on the way to Westeros to free all the slaves there. That should take quite some time, too.

Bottom line is I find it very optimistic to assume that Dany is going to reach Westeros in TWoW.

And we also have to keep in mind that the plots in Westeros don't look as if Westeros is ready for Dany yet. If there is to be a Second Dance than either Aegon or Euron (or both) have to secure their power before Dany arrives. Actually, they should make powerful alliances even before the prospect of Dany's impending arrival changes the hearts of the people they are dealing with. Most of the Targaryen loyalists should only fully join team Aegon while they believe Daenerys Targaryen is dead (thanks to the rumors that will be spread in the wake of Daznak's Pit).

Something like that is likely to take the entirety of the next book, perhaps even part of the book after that. I think George has put things in place to speed up Aegon's rise to the Iron Throne but he still has to write all those chapters. And just because he has the capital doesn't mean he has the strength to defend his throne against Daenerys should she arrive in Westeros.

I did not mean to say he is actually submissive (but then, Ygritte clearly was in charge). I meant that pragmatism and survival instinct should dictate that Jon Snow should accept help from basically everybody with an army if the situation becomes dire enough (and it effectively already is). Perhaps even Stannis will do that (although I'm not sure about that). 

If we assume Dany takes her time there is every reason to believe that Jon might ask Aegon or Euron for help. The fact that he wanted to save a man like the Weeper from the Others shows where his priorities lie. And Euron is still a human being whatever else he might also be (not to mention that Jon would only have a very incomplete picture of King Euron anyway).

That would depend on Jon's own view of Ned when Dany arrives. Assuming he already knows the truth about his parentage he might no longer be such a great fan of Eddard Stark's as he once was. And knowing that he is Daenerys Targaryen's nephew should also help him approach her on reasonably good terms. She knows about the Rhaegar-Lyanna thing, after all. Jon is most likely not going to be hellbent on antagonizing a person he knows is his aunt. There are no hints that he has any inclination to become a kinslayer.

In addition there is also the chance that Dany's view of her family and the people rebelling against her father is going to be rectified. By Tyrion, Marwyn, Selmy. Dany also will be briefed on the current political situation in Westeros by Marwyn and Tyrion which should actually change her focus from punishing the Usurper's Dogs to right the wrongs done to her people by the pretenders who wrought havoc in her kingdom in her absence - meaning the Freys and the Red Wedding, the war and butchery in the Riverlands, and so on.

That would mean that Jon has by this time sufficient strength to actually challenge Daenerys on the political field. Unless the Others make no move at all until after her arrival or unless the North magically gets another 10,000 men which can be spared to be used in some political game (even if Stannis' sellswords were to arrive they would be used in the defense of the Wall not as a means to conquer Westeros) such a scenario is very unlikely to happen.

Aside from Jaime there is nobody alive right now who Dany might want to kill.

Well, I agree that Jon failed to forge an alliance with the Boltons. But that's not entirely his fault. Roose and Ramsay didn't exactly make it easy for him and while the Pink Letter got Jon killed I'm not sure how he should have answered it to stay alive. Giving in to Ramsay's demands without actually knowing what had happened (i.e. whether Stannis was alive or dead) could very well get him killed, too (namely, if Stannis was alive and eventually victorious).

But then, they all might have time to learn that lesson in the wake of the destruction the Battle of Ice might wrought. Not to mention whatever is going to happen at the Wall in the wake of Jon's assassination. That could actually tear everything apart he has built.

I agree that ZombieJon might both be darker and significantly changed. But then, if Stannis yet lives Jon might sort of disappear in the background to deal with his personal issues or even embark on some kind of solo mission. If the resurrection spell is going to change his body physically in a fiery way he might be ideally suited to do some ranging beyond the Wall. Especially if he actually realized that Bran was alive and out there.

But I agree with you that if whoever is in charge when Dany arrives is going to make demands he is most going to be forced to deal with the Others on his own. That is why this is most likely not going to happen. Keep in mind that they might actually ask other people in the South for help before Dany arrives - Aegon, Euron, possibly even Littlefinger in the Vale (Jon considered buying food in the Vale). I doubt there will be any demands connected to help coming from those people.

It does seem that we agree on many things and most of the rest is "we will wait and see stuff". Just some small comments.

JonCons greyscale - I think you said it yourself basically - How can such a pandemic take to spread in the middle of winter (where people should be not inclined to travel so much)? Simply - It can´t. So out of the possible options for GRRM to give JonCon the greyscale, isn´t the likeliest one that this urges JonCon to bring Aegon to Westeros quickly since he knows he won't have much time left to help him and thereby using a more reckless and brutal method? And it does seem to take a pretty long time to infecting JonCon too. This is the same for Shireen. She is basically cured. Why introduce another plague from her? I think she has it to make her a more tragic character. And Val is full of shit - we would have heard of some kind of plague earlier from dragonstone if that was the case. Besides, the North has enough on its plate, so literary it makes even less sense there (and of course the even worse weather).

The timetable - While I see your point I think it needs to be said that GRRM doesn´t care about those things. He have said, I think, that too - that people will get to the right place as fast as he wants them too and therefore can a boattrip from Essos to Westeros take completely different amounts of time. In other words - Volantis can certainly go down in one chaper or two and Euron and Aegon should have secured their power after WoW. I stand by my guess - "Daenerys landing" (or at minimum her permanent leaving of Essos for Westeros "William the conqueror style") will be the end chapter in WoW.

Jon - The fact that he wanted to save a man like the Weeper from the Others DOESNT show where his priorities lie. Jon has started to sympathise heavily with the wildlings in the earlier books and as I told you, Jon is an emotional person, right? Well, his sympathy comes from his experiences with them, but he will most likely be unable to transfer those feelings ("Feeling" persons are often big hypocrites, since they don´t take into consideration the actions but the feelings, which are different from different people even if the act(s) are the same and therefore usually feel strong for a certain group or person without realizing that others have the same problem. They are weak on perspective) to other groups so it is very possible that he will only see monsters when he look at Euron and the Ironborn compared with the Weeper and the Wildlings. Again, with the Boltons, Jon chose to ignore his own advice and arguments for the necessity of peacemaking. Why not again. The pink letter is not a random event, but the logical end result of Jons own actions - he sent Mance Rayder on a secret mission to steal Ramsay Bolton’s bride, he is the one calling the letter to Tommen a paper shield that he don´t want to sign, he is the one giving Stannis advice in his war, he is the one helping Alys Karstark etc, etc, etc. 

So, yes - the Boltons are angry and justifiably so. Jon is like the guy filling a cup with coffee until it flows over. He doesn´t get that there is a limit on what the cup can be filled with, yet keeps pouring since he want to save all the coffee. 

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, Protagoras said:

JonCons greyscale - I think you said it yourself basically - How can such a pandemic take to spread in the middle of winter (where people should be not inclined to travel so much)? Simply - It can´t. So out of the possible options for GRRM to give JonCon the greyscale, isn´t the likeliest one that this urges JonCon to bring Aegon to Westeros quickly since he knows he won't have much time left to help him and thereby using a more reckless and brutal method?

 

Ah, well, I should have been more precise. I don't expect a large pandemic to greatly reduce the population of Westeros but I think we'll get a grey plague outbreak that is going to spread in the region controlled by Aegon. The obvious place where such a plague could have devastating effects would be King's Landing, of course.

The idea is that Aegon successfully takes the city, is cheered by the crowds, and anointed and crowned by the High Septon in triumph. And then a few days/weeks later the sickness will spread because Connington the fool is not taking enough precautions. It could even begin in the Stormlands. He is asking for wine and soaking his hands in it - who is later washing the cups and bowels he is using for this kind of thing? Who is washing the clothes he touched when he is not wearing his gloves?

I don't think Aegon will be infected with the disease (although that's possible, too) but some people will. And the idea is also that only Connington has - for some strange reason - caught adult greyscale. The people he infects are going to get the grey plague which means a quicker death.

Perhaps Aegon himself will be blamed for this disease, perhaps they will be able to keep it a secret that he brought it to Westeros. In any case, it will become a huge challenge for him and be the first severe stain on his reign which is not going to be as glorious as it is supposed to be.

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And it does seem to take a pretty long time to infecting JonCon too. This is the same for Shireen. She is basically cured. Why introduce another plague from her? I think she has it to make her a more tragic character. And Val is full of shit - we would have heard of some kind of plague earlier from dragonstone if that was the case. Besides, the North has enough on its plate, so literary it makes even less sense there (and of course the even worse weather).

I'd like that to be true but I don't think it is, actually. But we'll have to wait and see.

Spoiler

Shireen seems to be destined to be sacrificed by her father, after all.

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The timetable - While I see your point I think it needs to be said that GRRM doesn´t care about those things. He have said, I think, that too - that people will get to the right place as fast as he wants them too and therefore can a boattrip from Essos to Westeros take completely different amounts of time. In other words - Volantis can certainly go down in one chaper or two and Euron and Aegon should have secured their power after WoW. I stand by my guess - "Daenerys landing" (or at minimum her permanent leaving of Essos for Westeros "William the conqueror style") will be the end chapter in WoW.

Certainly possible. But then, he is also writing one chapter at a time and the story has a tendency to grow. For instance, we know that the third Connington chapter is going to cover the conquest of Storm's End, and event that originally wasn't planned.

He might intend to make the Dothraki and Volantis thing as short as possible but that's no guarantee that this is going to work. After all, originally the Red Wedding should have taken place in AGoT.

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Jon - The fact that he wanted to save a man like the Weeper from the Others DOESNT show where his priorities lie. Jon has started to sympathise heavily with the wildlings in the earlier books and as I told you, Jon is an emotional person, right? Well, his sympathy comes from his experiences with them, but he will most likely be unable to transfer those feelings ("Feeling" persons are often big hypocrites, since they don´t take into consideration the actions but the feelings, which are different from different people even if the act(s) are the same and therefore usually feel strong for a certain group or person without realizing that others have the same problem. They are weak on perspective) to other groups so it is very possible that he will only see monsters when he look at Euron and the Ironborn compared with the Weeper and the Wildlings.

Well, my idea there just is that Jon has reached the conclusion the Weeper - a non-Other - is still human and thus better than an Other and does not deserve to become a wight to add another soldier to their ranks.

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Again, with the Boltons, Jon chose to ignore his own advice and arguments for the necessity of peacemaking. Why not again. The pink letter is not a random event, but the logical end result of Jons own actions - he sent Mance Rayder on a secret mission to steal Ramsay Bolton’s bride, he is the one calling the letter to Tommen a paper shield that he don´t want to sign, he is the one giving Stannis advice in his war, he is the one helping Alys Karstark etc, etc, etc. 

I'm with you there. The right thing would have been to let the Arya thing go and to actually try to convince Stannis to make a deal with Roose or to approach Roose himself. Somebody should have tried to talk to the man about the Others. They are, most likely, going to come for him, too.

I'm not faulting him for Alys Karstark. He was in the rights there. She was seeking refuge and he granted her guest right.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

Logically, nobody would ally with the Boltons, or even trust them for any aid during Winter or whatever. Jon wonders at one point of time how the Boltons hardly lost any men during the RW and then they got rewarded with the North. Any reasonably intelligent guy would realise how treacherous they were. The idea that Jon should have told Stannis to ally with them is ridiculous.

Plus, there is nothing wrong with Jon helping Stannis, because he was the only king who came to the aid of the Watch. This is not some utopia where Jon can expect someone to come help the NW during their time of need and ask nothing back. It is sensible politics, actually, because the NW needs all the goodwill and help they can get.

Sending Mance to rescue "Arya" was definitely out of the bounds of his NW vows, however.

 

[Lord Varys]

31 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Logically, nobody would ally with the Boltons, or even trust them for any aid during Winter or whatever. Jon wonders at one point of time how the Boltons hardly lost any men during the RW and then they got rewarded with the North. Any reasonably intelligent guy would realise how treacherous they were. The idea that Jon should have told Stannis to ally with them is ridiculous.

No, it isn't. It is what intelligent people would have tried to do. It would have been the right thing to do considering the threat humanity his facing. I don't know if you have read the original outline but George finishes the readable something around the lines that the Others are watching the events unfolding in the South with cold satisfaction.

If you imagine yourself sitting in the Heart of Winter watching a chess board full of your potential enemies and you see Stannis and Jon fighting against Roose and Ramsay you should be very pleased indeed.

An alliance with the Weeper isn't different from an alliance with the Boltons. That man is utter scum, just as Ramsay is. And he is just one among the many thugs among the wildlings. If Jon can make an exception for him he should also make an exception for the Boltons - but then, he can apparently not see beyond the Red Wedding and his feelings for his sister. If you want to take on the common enemy of everyone you have to be better than that.

In addition, everybody seems to forget that nobody ever tried to explain to Roose what was at stake here. Ramsay isn't a guy you can have a reasonable conversation with but Roose certainly is. If he knew that the Others were a thing and preparing to attack the Wall he should listen. After all, the Dreadfort is not that far away from the Wall.

31 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Plus, there is nothing wrong with Jon helping Stannis, because he was the only king who came to the aid of the Watch. This is not some utopia where Jon can expect someone to come help the NW during their time of need and ask nothing back. It is sensible politics, actually, because the NW needs all the goodwill and help they can get.

Helping Stannis was okay up to a point. He should have given him food and clothes and then told him to get on his way.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Spoiler

I'd like that to be true but I don't think it is, actually. But we'll have to wait and see. Shireen seems to be destined to be sacrificed by her father, after all.

 

LV, I think you should put this in spoiler quotes.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, it isn't. It is what intelligent people would have tried to do. It would have been the right thing to do considering the threat humanity his facing. I don't know if you have read the original outline but George finishes the readable something around the lines that the Others are watching the events unfolding in the South with cold satisfaction.

If you imagine yourself sitting in the Heart of Winter watching a chess board full of your potential enemies and you see Stannis and Jon fighting against Roose and Ramsay you should be very pleased indeed.

An alliance with the Weeper isn't different from an alliance with the Boltons. That man is utter scum, just as Ramsay is. And he is just one among the many thugs among the wildlings. If Jon can make an exception for him he should also make an exception for the Boltons - but then, he can apparently not see beyond the Red Wedding and his feelings for his sister. If you want to take on the common enemy of everyone you have to be better than that.

In addition, everybody seems to forget that nobody ever tried to explain to Roose what was at stake here. Ramsay isn't a guy you can have a reasonable conversation with but Roose certainly is. If he knew that the Others were a thing and preparing to attack the Wall he should listen. After all, the Dreadfort is not that far away from the Wall.

It's not as simple as all that. You must remember that except for Jon, and eventually Stannis and a handful of people at the Wall, the Others are creatures of myth gone 8000 years ago. Even the NW and the wildlings themselves haven't really faced the enemy, counting out a few people like Sam.

So it's going to be very difficult to convince people that they are coming back, and especially not a guy (Roose/Ramsay) who already has reason to be hostile towards you. No matter how neutral Jon may want to be, he is a Stark bastard and the Boltons would consider him a threat to their rule. 

 Not a single letter for help from the Watch was answered, after all, when it was wildlings attacking -  are you saying people are suddenly going to rush to their help when they claim the Others, gone centuries ago, are coming back?

The fact that Stannis actually took the trouble to come to the Wall and take the threat of the Others seriously is no small feat, on his part, and the NW desperately needs people like that on their side. In addition to that, only a united North can stand against the enemy, and that's what Stannis basically intends to do -  rally the North by restoring their rightful rulers to Winterfell. It's different if it was a Stark Lord in Winterfell - Starks have traditionally always been on good terms with the Watch. However, the LC of the Watch cannot expect a similar thing from the Boltons. Now when the choice is between a faction who has helped you, is taking the threat of the Others very seriously, and plans to get the North somewhat back to normalcy before they strike, and on the other hand a House who are proven traitors, which one would you take?

The idea that the NW should remain neutral and stuff is pretty good in theory, but no matter who rules in King's Landing, it is at the very least in the interests of the Watch to take a hand in the business of who rules the North -  because the South cannot be counted on for help and the North is the region which will be hardest hit. The friendlier the ruler of the North to the Watch, the better it is for everyone. 

To top it all, Stannis winning would 100% mean more men, resources and money into the real fight, and he could possibly rally some of the South as well.  Anyway you cut it, the better choice for a LC of the Watch, even discounting Jon's own personal issues, would have been to support Stannis over the treacherous Boltons.

This is not to say Jon's personal issues didn't play a major part in his decision, but IMO between Stannis and the Boltons, it's far far better from every angle that they back Stannis.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Helping Stannis was okay up to a point. He should have given him food and clothes and then told him to get on his way.

Well...

Quote

“I gave Stannis food, shelter, and the Nightfort, plus leave to settle some free folk in the Gift. That’s all.

“Lord Tywin will say it was too much.”

“Stannis says it’s not enough. The more you give a king, the more he wants. We are walking on a bridge of ice with an abyss on either side. Pleasing one king is difficult enough. Pleasing two is hardly possible.” (ADWD,JON II)

Quote

“Have you signed the grant?”

“No, Your Grace.” And now it comes. Jon closed his burned fingers and opened them again. “You ask too much.”

 

…“Your Grace,” said Jon, with chilly courtesy, “I have housed your men and fed them, at dire cost to our winter stores. I have clothed them so they would not freeze.”

 

Stannis was not appeased. “Aye, you’ve shared your salt pork and porridge, and you’ve thrown us some black rags to keep us warm. Rags the wildlings would have taken off your corpses if I had not come north.”

 

Jon ignored that. “I have given you fodder for your horses, and once the stair is done I will lend you builders to restore the Nightfort. I have even agreed to allow you to settle wildlings on the Gift, which was given to the Night’s Watch in perpetuity…. The stones of those forts are mortared with the blood and bones of my brothers, long dead. I cannot give them to you… I took an oath, Your Grace. The Wall is mine.” (ADWD, JON I)

 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

On 9/27/2016 at 0:40 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm willing to let that Howland thing go until we actually meet the man. I admit that there is a good chance that he might not actually have foreseen the Theon thing. But it is still very odd that Howland does literally nothing to help prepare the North for the things to come. Why not meet with Robert and Ned while they were crossing the Neck? Why not try to urge Robb to march his army back home when he is crossing the Neck? Why not personally accompany Robb to help him free Ned and win the war so that he could then prepare the North for the Others?

It is not just the Winterfell thing. It is Howland Reed doing nothing we can see the entire time that makes me somewhat convinced that he and Bloodraven don't play the game of thrones at all. And if they don't do that, then it is unlikely that they care who is supposed to be king. Hell, I'm much more inclined to believe that both Bloodraven-Bran and Howland are going to use Jon Snow (and Dany and Tyrion, and all the other 'heroes') as their weapons against the Heart of Winter. They won't care whether they break or shatter in the process if they keep the upper hand in the end.

In general, though, you should keep in mind that Jojen's fatalistic view of things in regards to his dreams is just his personal view. If Bloodraven shapes his dreams to manipulate him in a certain direction then all bets are off. And from Mel and Qyburn we know that some people believe the future can be changed.

In general I agree. There are some theories that Howland may be incapacitated in some way which kept him from meeting with Robert and Ned, but that's just speculation. But there is no doubt about the fact that Howland, BR and COTF must have communicated, and that he surely knows about the threat of the Others. There's got to be something to that whole year which Howland spent on the Isle of Faces - and even before that, it is said he could "talk to trees", which pretty much confirms that he can contact greenseers through the weir-net. I'm expecting that Bran might be the one to talk to him first through some heart tree in the Neck. ADWD and the TWOW spoiler chapters gave us good hints that Bran's powers are growing very fast.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea is, if I remember correctly, that Bran will magically make any Northern castle with a weirwood tree some sort of magical safe heaven and that the Others will be able to resurrect all the corpses everywhere as soon as they are south of the Wall.

For some strange reason they will not really focus on killing everybody in the North first but focus on the lands down in the South.

Which I think makes no sense even if the Others were able to create wights everywhere. There are strong hints that you have be literally touched by the magic of the Others to become a wight - being either killed by them or by the unnatural cold they bring - and I don't see that happening to anybody down south while the Others are still in the North. In addition, there is a good chance that the Neck will become the major obstacle of the Others after the Wall has fallen. It should be difficult for the wights to cross the swamp and south of the Wall the magic of the Children is strongest among the crannogmen. Thus it should actually take quite some time until the Others reach the Riverlands.

Actually if the Others have a sense of strategy, which they very well might seeing their operation at the Fist and the act of the Trojan wights, they would attack the South first. It's not a very likely idea, but not impossible either.

Quote

My assumption is that a lot of people know a lot more about Rhaegar and Lyanna than they have told us up to this point. Even POVs like Connington, Cersei, Jaime, Selmy, Arianne, and so forth.

George obviously keeps this whole affair and the things surrounding it a closely guarded secret for plot reasons. Telling us Rhaegar and Lyanna were married would pretty much reveal the truth about Jon's heritage and he doesn't yet want to do it.

It is also apparent that TWoIaF covered events up to the abduction in great detail but left both Rhaegar's journey and the trial against the Starks in the dark. We don't yet know what Rickard and the other lords were accused of. Going with Aerys being mad and projecting Brandon's guilt on all the other made some sense prior to TWoIaF but there we learned that Aerys mistrusted Rhaegar and considered to disinherit him. The fact that he thought Rhaegar and the Starks were plotting against him and that the coronation was a confirmation of that is actually a huge eyeopener. Such an Aerys has no reason to go to insane lengths to defend his son. Aerys should actually have relished at the idea of Brandon killing his ingrate son. He should not have defended him the way he did. It also shows us why nobody expected a Stark-Baratheon-Arryn rebellion because the court and Aerys thought the Starks were conspiring with Rhaegar - which would make a Baratheon-Stark alliance unlikely (because Lyanna couldn't marry both Rhaegar and Robert).

Then there is the problem of Rhaegar and Lyanna just disappearing for months. Why did they do that? It makes no sense unless we assume that they were not welcome at court because Aerys considered them traitors. If Aerys had had no issues with Rhaegar at this point then Rhaegar's help would have been welcome at court - especially if Aerys actually killed Brandon, Rickard, and company to protect Rhaegar from Brandon.

Once Aerys finally realized that he had been wrong, that Rhaegar never had conspired with the Starks he forgave him and people searched for him which eventually led to Hightower finding him. Earlier on Aerys showed his change of hearts by naming Jon Connington Hand.

Hm...that's an interesting way to look at things.

I'm not sure how much GRRM is hiding in his other POVs, but now that we have Jon Con in the picture we should definitely get some interesting and possibly very insightful reveals into this whole matter. It's very likely that he was one of the six companions Rhaegar set off to the Riverlands with.

Aerys' overreaction to the Brandon and Rickard thing is actually better explained now after TWOIAF revealed that he believed Rhaegar was conspiring against him, possibly with the other Great Houses. Maybe when Rhaegar and Lyanna ran off together, he thought that the Starks and Rhaegar were in cahoots and planning something against him, thus fueling his paranoia and hatred against them and prompting that ghastly double murder.

Rhaegar and Lyanna disappearing always kind of made sense to me because they knew that nobody would support their decision - Starks, Baratheons, Targs, Martells, etc. I'm not sure if they could have publically married without causing even more of an uproar than they already did. Plus the official version is that he raped her, right? IIRC even Bran says this at some point to Osha or something. 

The real big question about Hightower finding him is how he did so. Who told him, I wonder?

[Free Northman Reborn]

Look, for symbolic reasons I could almost envisage a repeat of Torhenn Stark meeting Aegon Targaryen at the Trident, perhaps even at the Inn of the Kneeling Man. With Jon filling Torhenn's role, and Dany Aegon's. With Jon willing to submit for the sake of the realm, only for his true identity to be revealed in some way at that point, unlocking the intended drama, conflict and a sudden, unexpected outcome to the meeting.

That's just one of the many ways this thing could go.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

LV, I think you should put this in spoiler quotes.

Wasn't thinking about the show there. Just about our speculations stretching back years. Many people believed that Stannis would eventually do that particular thing long before the show even existed.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It's not as simple as all that. You must remember that except for Jon, and eventually Stannis and a handful of people at the Wall, the Others are creatures of myth gone 8000 years ago. Even the NW and the wildlings themselves haven't really faced the enemy, counting out a few people like Sam.

That is not true. Mance's whole alliance was born out of the conflict with the Others and made because the various tribes realized that they could not stand against the Others at all. Neither alone nor united. They had to retreat.

I'd agree that not many people met an Other and lived to speak about it but some did. And a lot of people saw the wights and lived. Possibly most of the fighting men and women in Mance's army.

I never said it would be easy for Jon to convince Roose about the common enemy they are facing. But it would have been the right thing to do to try.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

So it's going to be very difficult to convince people that they are coming back, and especially not a guy (Roose/Ramsay) who already has reason to be hostile towards you. No matter how neutral Jon may want to be, he is a Stark bastard and the Boltons would consider him a threat to their rule.

But there is no fundamental difference between the century-long hatred between Watchmen and wildlings and whatever feelings Jon has for Roose and Ramsay. In fact, Roose and Ramsay just recently became enemies of the Starks while the wildlings were the enemies of the Watch for generations. Trying to heal that rift - which sits much deeper than the Stark-Bolton thing - but not making an attempt at the other thing is taking different standards, essentially stupid, and sort of cowardly.

Bowen Marsh is supposed to overcome his hatred for a man like the Weeper (who cruelly tortures every Watchman he lays his hands on and who - along with his men - just recently killed many Watchmen at the Bridge of Skulls) but Jon can make his hatred for the Boltons a foundation of his policy is a huge double standard.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

 Not a single letter for help from the Watch was answered, after all, when it was wildlings attacking -  are you saying people are suddenly going to rush to their help when they claim the Others, gone centuries ago, are coming back?

Well, no Lord of the North came to the help of the Watch. None at all. And Aemon was writing letters to all of them. It is not that just the Boltons refused to help. But Roose has a very good excuse as why he didn't help. He was in the South with Robb Stark, remember? Any letters sent to the Dreadfort wouldn't have reached him.

The same is not true for the lords who remained in the North (Manderly, Dustin, the Ryswells, the clansmen etc.) as well as the various castellans (Karstark, Umber, etc.) who weren't attacked by the Ironborn. They just refused to help while the Watch was attacked by the wildlings who would then invade their own lands after they had dealt with the NW. That is a major logical problem in the narrative and can perhaps best be resolved that all of the lords/castellans receiving such letters lacked the strength to actually spare any men at this time (due to a general lack of men due to Robb's war or because they were at that time bringing in the last harvest).

But the idea is not that Jon Snow is going to write some letters to Roose. The idea is that he actually tries to make peace with him. He could have sent envoys to Barrowton and Winterfell. He could have personally attended his sister's wedding. He could have done anything in his power to make Roose understand the danger they are all in. And he could have tried to convince Stannis of such a course of action, too. The idea that it was smart to continue the fighting with the Others at your back was insane from Stannis' point of view. The man should have sent envoys to Roose to try to make a peace with him throughout winter and/or tried to make him understand the real threat they are facing.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

The fact that Stannis actually took the trouble to come to the Wall and take the threat of the Others seriously is no small feat, on his part, and the NW desperately needs people like that on their side. In addition to that, only a united North can stand against the enemy, and that's what Stannis basically intends to do -  rally the North by restoring their rightful rulers to Winterfell.

That is your (and Stannis', and Jon's) mistake. A united North won't be able to stand against the Others. I doubt even a united North under Eddard Stark would have been able to stand against the Others. But a united North after the toll of the War of the Five Kings, the Red Wedding, the continued civil war in the North, and the cold and famine winter will bring won't be able to stand against anything, basically.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It's different if it was a Stark Lord in Winterfell - Starks have traditionally always been on good terms with the Watch. However, the LC of the Watch cannot expect a similar thing from the Boltons. Now when the choice is between a faction who has helped you, is taking the threat of the Others very seriously, and plans to get the North somewhat back to normalcy before they strike, and on the other hand a House who are proven traitors, which one would you take?

All the Lords of the North are traditionally friends of the Watch, not just the Starks. In addition, the Starks are as much 'traitors' as the Boltons. Robb took up arms against King Joffrey after Eddard Stark conspired against him. People tend to forget that Robb is actually guilty of treason because he actually considered Joffrey Robert Baratheon's son when he took up arms against him. 

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

The idea that the NW should remain neutral and stuff is pretty good in theory, but no matter who rules in King's Landing, it is at the very least in the interests of the Watch to take a hand in the business of who rules the North -  because the South cannot be counted on for help and the North is the region which will be hardest hit. The friendlier the ruler of the North to the Watch, the better it is for everyone.

If the South cannot be counted upon to send assistance eventually they should all abandon their posts or kill themselves now. Because the few fighting men left in the North won't help them hold the Wall.

There is going to be battle at/near Winterfell that will involve about 10,000 men. That is the bulk of the strength left in the North (Freys included). In addition there might be some Manderly men left, and whatever men there are on Skagos. That's it. Depending how bad the battle(s) are going to get half or more the strength of the North might die. That is not going to be a good thing even if the Boltons are defeated.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

To top it all, Stannis winning would 100% mean more men, resources and money into the real fight, and he could possibly rally some of the South as well.  Anyway you cut it, the better choice for a LC of the Watch, even discounting Jon's own personal issues, would have been to support Stannis over the treacherous Boltons.

Stannis brought a host without food, clothes, or other supplies to the Wall. His army lived off the provisions of the NW just as the wildling refugees did Stannis forced upon the NW. As things stand more men means less food for everyone. And that is a major problem as Bowen Marsh has tried to make Jon Snow understand. Even if the Others don't attack a mundane winter might kill them all.

Lets assume the Others still take their time. What is going to happen if the food runs low? Starvation? Cannibalism? The Others could actually sit on their asses and let winter do its work. Men who died of starvation or the cold are no threat to them (and could be wightified once they have crossed the Wall) and men weakened by hunger and cold could be easily overwhelmed.

This whole 'We have to have more men and prepare' thing might actually be the undoing of both the Watch and any form of organized resistance at the Wall.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

In general I agree. There are some theories that Howland may be incapacitated in some way which kept him from meeting with Robert and Ned, but that's just speculation.

Never read anything like that but, yeah, that's baseless speculation because nothing what Meera and Jojen tell us indicates that their father was facing anything of that sort of incapacitation. I hope we'll learn that Howland just didn't care about politics, perhaps knowing that even a united Realm under Robert wouldn't have had any chance against the Others.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

But there is no doubt about the fact that Howland, BR and COTF must have communicated, and that he surely knows about the threat of the Others. There's got to be something to that whole year which Howland spent on the Isle of Faces - and even before that, it is said he could "talk to trees", which pretty much confirms that he can contact greenseers through the weir-net. I'm expecting that Bran might be the one to talk to him first through some heart tree in the Neck. ADWD and the TWOW spoiler chapters gave us good hints that Bran's powers are growing very fast.

Lets not got ahead of ourselves. We have reason to think that it is possible that Howland knows stuff (due to his time with the Green Men) and could be in contact with Bloodraven but that doesn't mean that he is right now or had very good information at this or that point in time.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Actually if the Others have a sense of strategy, which they very well might seeing their operation at the Fist and the act of the Trojan wights, they would attack the South first. It's not a very likely idea, but not impossible either.

Considering that they are apparently not building/using ships that's not very likely. How would they do that? Sure, they could try to race down south as quickly as they can after they have taken/destroyed the Wall but the wights aren't that fast and the more Northmen they kill the larger their wight army will get. And they should know that the Neck and the crannogmen will not be easily crossed/overwhelmed.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Hm...that's an interesting way to look at things.

I'm not sure how much GRRM is hiding in his other POVs, but now that we have Jon Con in the picture we should definitely get some interesting and possibly very insightful reveals into this whole matter. It's very likely that he was one of the six companions Rhaegar set off to the Riverlands with.

Well, we see how well he hides things in Connington's two chapters. The man thinks about Elia but never mentions Lyanna Stark despite the fact that he must have feelings about her, too. I mean, the man was at Harrenhal. And he makes the curious statement that Prince Aegon is 'Rhaegar's firstborn son by Elia Martell'. Could just be that he was very precise there but people would have known who Rhaegar Targaryen had married and that he only had one son, right?

Jaime and Selmy could know a lot of important stuff as well, most importantly details of any interactions between Rhaegar and his parents (or Viserys even) after the former's return to court. Such conversations could very have included details about his marital status (if there had been no public Rhaegar-Lyanna wedding) and the fact that Lyanna Stark was carrying Rhaegar's child. The idea that the Lyanna thing didn't come up at court after Rhaegar's return in some fashion makes no sense.

And yeah, Connington could have been one of the six companions who actually participated in the abduction and who might have been with them when they (publicly) married. Rhaegar could have sent him and Myles Mooton back to court to try to explain the situation to Aerys and convince him to drop all charges against him. By the time Aerys made then Connington Hand this goal would have been accomplished, perhaps also because it was clear that Rhaegar wasn't part of the rebel movement at all.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Aerys' overreaction to the Brandon and Rickard thing is actually better explained now after TWOIAF revealed that he believed Rhaegar was conspiring against him, possibly with the other Great Houses. Maybe when Rhaegar and Lyanna ran off together, he thought that the Starks and Rhaegar were in cahoots and planning something against him, thus fueling his paranoia and hatred against them and prompting that ghastly double murder.

The thing is, that there is no textual evidence that they ran off together. We know of an abduction and we know that they were not at court later but we don't know anything about them running off together. That's an inference born out of the fact that this abduction thing as well as its immediate aftermath was never properly covered in any of the books. They could have run off together. But they could also have been forced to do this.

If you compare the situation to Prince Duncan and Jenny then one should assume that Duncan and Jenny also could have had the motivation to run off together. But they didn't. They stood their ground and presumably Duncan helped his father crush the Baratheon rebellion. If Rhaegar truly wanted to be with Lyanna and eventually become king he would have been forced to stand his ground, too. Running away could only lead to him being disinherited, attainted, and exiled. It could even cost him his life, and Lyanna's. Not to mention that his other wife and children could be ruined in the process, too. In light of the whole prophecy thing such a behavior would make no sense whatsoever. Rhaegar (and Lyanna) would have to be even madder than Aerys to do something as irresponsible as that.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Rhaegar and Lyanna disappearing always kind of made sense to me because they knew that nobody would support their decision - Starks, Baratheons, Targs, Martells, etc. I'm not sure if they could have publically married without causing even more of an uproar than they already did. Plus the official version is that he raped her, right? IIRC even Bran says this at some point to Osha or something. 

Rape can be part of a forced marriage. The thing is - Robert and Ned's children might be under the impression Evil Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna and married her against her will. That is possible. Just look at Sansa or 'Arya'. Marital rape is a thing, too.

I think it is very likely that Lyanna loved Rhaegar at Harrenhal and perhaps even while he abducted and married her. But once this whole thing caused the deaths of her father and brother at the hands of Aerys' father and Rhaegar later actually sided with that man to fight against Ned and Robert I'm much less inclined to believe that Lyanna was still in love with this man.

She might have rediscovered her love for him on her deathbed after she had learned that Rhaegar was dead. That's no uncommon thing. But while she was kept at the tower of joy by the knights she might actually have been a prisoner.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

The real big question about Hightower finding him is how he did so. Who told him, I wonder?

One assumes Aerys had Varys search for him from the very beginning. First to find him to punish him and later to find him and apologize to him. One also assumes that reports about them eventually reached court. They would have traveled the land and neither the Prince of Dragonstone nor some Kingsguard are easily to miss. And we have no clue where they went before they ended up in that tower. 

[Lord Varys]

28 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Look, for symbolic reasons I could almost envisage a repeat of Torhenn Stark meeting Aegon Targaryen at the Trident, perhaps even at the Inn of the Kneeling Man. With Jon filling Torhenn's role, and Dany Aegon's. With Jon willing to submit for the sake of the realm, only for his true identity to be revealed in some way at that point, unlocking the intended drama, conflict and a sudden, unexpected outcome to the meeting.

If there were no Others in this story, if Dany and Jon weren't woman and man (and thus capable of hooking up in manner: D + J = GVS - great vaginal sex), if the Targaryens weren't marrying their own, if the North wasn't effectively completely spent by then such a scenario could be possible.

Perhaps even if Dany had reconquered Westeros in the middle of the War of the Five Kings when nobody was thinking about the Others. But the idea that petty things like 'Northern (or Ironborn) independence' still matter at this point just doesn't make any sense. And thus Jon Snow would never approach any powerful military leader whose men could make a (or the) difference in the battle against the Others as a rival or even an enemy.

If he had to throw himself at Dany's feet to get what he wants and needs he would do that. The man is not as stupid as the Germans in two Word Wars to think he can win a war on two fronts - with one enemy not being the mortal Russians but some evil ice demons with a zombie army.

What would be the point to even risk the chance that Daenerys Targaryen is going to oppose him? Even if he magically had the men to be a nuisance to Dany's forces the risk of losing men in another war could very well give the Others the advantage they need to destroy everyone.

You can turn it around again and again but the point is that going along with petty secessionist behavior won't make any sense at that point. That idea already seems to be pretty much dead at this point, anyway. Wyman Manderly gives no indication that he wants an independent North, and Lady Dustin's theories what Roose Bolton might want to do will not be realized.

Even with Robb's will being revealed anybody believing in the threat of the Others - and hopefully some people will believe in that at this point - would be foolish to support Jon Snow (or another Stark) becoming a King in the North because that could motivate the people in the South to decide that 'the independent Northern kingdom' should deal with the Others all by themselves. That's what any sane person would expect a sovereign kingdom to be doing. Wights are only attacked if they reach our soil.

[SeanF]

53 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Wasn't thinking about the show there. Just about our speculations stretching back years. Many people believed that Stannis would eventually do that particular thing long before the show even existed.

That is not true. Mance's whole alliance was born out of the conflict with the Others and made because the various tribes realized that they could not stand against the Others at all. Neither alone nor united. They had to retreat.

I'd agree that not many people met an Other and lived to speak about it but some did. And a lot of people saw the wights and lived. Possibly most of the fighting men and women in Mance's army.

I never said it would be easy for Jon to convince Roose about the common enemy they are facing. But it would have been the right thing to do to try.

But there is no fundamental difference between the century-long hatred between Watchmen and wildlings and whatever feelings Jon has for Roose and Ramsay. In fact, Roose and Ramsay just recently became enemies of the Starks while the wildlings were the enemies of the Watch for generations. Trying to heal that rift - which sits much deeper than the Stark-Bolton thing - but not making an attempt at the other thing is taking different standards, essentially stupid, and sort of cowardly.

. 

I think it's unrealistic to expect Jon to work out a peace with people who've just murdered his family, along with 3,500 of the North's fighting men, who are keeping his sister (he believes) a captive, and who would certainly finish him off as soon as the opportunity arose.  I wouldn't do it in his position, so I wouldn't expect him to.

Jon's card was marked as soon as Stannis came to the Wall, and he was elected Lord Commander. Cersei planned to assassinate him, as soon as she heard.  Really, all that Jon could do was to pick a side.