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SeanF

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Everything posted by SeanF

  1. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    I think it's very hard to predict how the Courts will rule on this case, and we may see different Courts making different rulings.
  2. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    They'd surely regard Brexit plus Corbyn as a worse outcome than Brexit plus the current government? And, they would need time to build up some organisation in their constituencies, before fighting an election. Edit: The three ex-Conservatives have said they would not vote against the government in a VONC (although they could easily abstain).
  3. SeanF

    On realism, grimdark and childishness

    The earlier Turks were the Seljuks. The Byzantines had lost ground to them, but their Empire was still considerable in the Twelth Century. After 1204, their Empire became a shadow of its past self. Large numbers of Venetians and Cretans (subject to them) fought in 1453, despite Venice being technically neutral. Europeans were right to fear Mehmet II and his successors. After taking Constantinople, they proclaimed themselves Emperors of Rome, and intended to reconquer the Roman Empire (and by 1566, they had gone a long way towards doing so). In the eyes of the Emperors, they were simply turning the Empire to Islam, in the way that Constantine had turned to Christianity.
  4. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    Yep, they've gone.
  5. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    They don't. But, they don't want Corbyn as PM, or an early general election, in which they'd be likely to lose their seats. That's why I think they'd abstain.
  6. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    It looks like Wollaston, Soubry, and Allen will jump ship today from the Conservatives
  7. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    The case will turn on whether she is a dual national/entitled to dual nationality. Hundreds of dual nationals have had their British citizenship revoked by Home Secretaries over the past 15 years.
  8. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    So, neither the constituency I live in, nor the one I work in , now have Labour MP's.
  9. SeanF

    On realism, grimdark and childishness

    The real idiocy was to sack Constantinople in 1204, which dealt a fatal blow to the only State that could stem the Turkish tide. The Venetians gave considerable aid to Constantinople in 1453, but it was too little too late.
  10. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    It likely gives May more room for manoeuvre. The 7 would be unlikely to back a vote of no confidence, which reduces the DUP's leverage.
  11. SeanF

    On realism, grimdark and childishness

    Western Europe remained in awe of Rome, long after it's economic and cultural achievements surpassed those of Rome. The West was certainly less advanced in 900 than in 400, but way ahead of the Roman Empire by 1400. Gibbon's view that the 2nd century AD was the best time to be alive was absurd by his time.
  12. I suppose there's no true happy ending with Joe Abercrombie. She'll probably have terminal cancer or be murdered by revolutionaries.
  13. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    Many people in finance are dishonest, self-serving, and incompetent. They attend Davos and similar conferences, and persuade themselves and each other that all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds. But, I think that stops short of a conspiracy.
  14. I felt a good deal of sympathy for Ardee, and was pleased she got a sort of happy ending.
  15. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    Communists and Trotskyists see conspiracies everywhere and took their inspiration from the parties of Eastern Europe. It 's not much of a leap from believing that international finance is controlled by a shadowy clique to then believe in the oldest conspiracy theory of them all. Much will turn on whether the group attracts Conservatives. I think it will attract a few.
  16. That was sad, but they really didn't have a choice.
  17. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    There has usually been very little anti-Semitism among social democrats, but it's always been rife among communists and Trotskyists. And, quite a few of the latter have joined the Labour Party.
  18. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    They would remain the government until they lost a vote of no confidence. About 10 Conservatives would have to resign, and support a VONC, in order for the government to lose.
  19. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    That said, if the Labour Party does disintegrate, I expect that the Conservatives would also do so. Apart from fear of Labour, what is there to keep them together?
  20. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    I've just realised that my own town, Luton, no longer has a Labour MP. Both Gavin Shuker and Kelvin Hopkins are now independents.
  21. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    At the time, I thought the Remain campaign was much more effective than the Leave campaign, but that proved not to be the case..
  22. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    Strangely, I don't think Anna Soubry would jump ship, as she's too committed to the Conservative Party. I'd say that Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would be the two likeliest defectors.
  23. Given the prevailing attitude towards women among the Union's upper classes, West ought to take more care of his sister. He mostly ignores her her, and expects to navigate Adua's social pitfalls on her own.
  24. SeanF

    UK Politics : Groundhog May

    Financial services are very unlikely to migrate en masse to the Continent. A very large majority of the City's overseas revenues are earned outside the EU.
  25. The Royal Inquisition is much more a 20th century institution.
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