Back door hodor

I disagree with your assessment that the Red Keep could have held out that long without Tryions preparation and defenses. Example: the burning of the hovels in flea bottom and the relocation of the civilians was unpopular, but nessecary, it clears the land outside the city walls to create a killzone for archers and the houses could be scaled to climb the wall eaiser. I agree that he didn't really have enough time as hand to really make any big political/ administrative changes, and those he did where shortlived. As a small aside, it's really the same for his tenure as Master of Coin, he may have actually done a good job if he was at it longer.

My guess is that they were nominally freed by Aenar, but were more like Ilyrios "servants" for a generation or two, that is slaves in all but name, eventually they interbred with the westrosi smallfolk already there and became more like them as they and the targs acclimated to the new culture

Very possible, we see evidence on this even earlier though.... In Brans chapter in Game, the one where he is falling and than awakes from the coma at the end, he sees... "His brother Jon laying cold and stiff as all memory of warmth fled from him"(paraphrased from memory, not exact quote). This suggests that as early as the first half of the first book, Bran could at the very least see the future(or I suppose it's more accurate to say he sees time in a non linear fashion), if not effect it....yet. So yea I think there is definitely evidence to support a time traveling Bran theory(i Iike to call him Bran Conner, but that may just be me).

If we were to take "setting aside" as Robert taking one or several mistresses and simply ignoring or sending Cersi away, I would say this is a definite possibility and a very real fear for Cersi to have, Tywin can either take it laying down(unlikely), stand against the entire realm ( The Crownlands, Riverlands, Stotmlands, The Vale and the North are all firmly his, and Dorne wants Tywin broken and killed, leaving his only potential allies as The reach(posible) or the Ironborn(unlikely)entire scenario also unlikely), or wait until Robert dies and champion his grandchildrens claim if they still live(most likely). Robert would face no legal repercussions, in fact such a thing would not be possible due to the above circumstances, and Cersie's children become whatever Robert decides they will be. When Robert dies however, his heirs will reap what he sew. As evidence I present the reign and heirs of one Aegon IV, and the Blackfye rebellions which followed a few years after his death.

I remember reading on this forum that some believe Darkstar is actually Doran's mole in Arriannes group, and that he is still working for him , and the plan the send Balon Swan to kill him is actually in fact, the other way around, an way to discreetly kill Balon and keep some plausible deniability

I personally do not think pursuing naval strength would be impractical...the Lannisters already control one of the major ports in Westeros, and the only one on the entire western coast, thier seat of power is on or very near the coast and they count at least one fairly large island( Fair Isle) and several other settlements on or near the western coast among thier kingdom(for lack of a better term).

As to your third point, a slight advantage in equipment I would say is both a bigger advantage and much more expensive than you realize, in the real world, most medieval conscripts brought thier own equipment to war, the cost of equipping Lannister men even with the most basic gear should not be underplayed. I agree with some of your other points though, especially the Navy.

Yea..

It's been somewhere between 2 and 8 thousand years, even the smallest number is a really long period. The amount of Time that has passed and Interbreeding can explain the relative peace. There are outliers though, mountain clansmen, orphans of the green blood, etc, but they are small, isolated, and lack political power

I like this a lot,( especially the stuff in the first paragraph) every thread I see about (f)aegon assumes he is Varys and Ilyrios endgame, would be interesting if it were actually the other way around.

So I do not think that the Skagosi would be as poorly equipped and everyone else. I don't see them having castle forged steel and plate mail obviously, but iron weapons, chainmail, leather and furs seem likely. Thier isolation is fairly recent and imposed by the Starks, they would have been traders or Sea raiders before that,(they definitely raided Skane), so even if they cant make thses things themselves they can get them.

He could have skinchanged without training, Arya goes into that cat and Varmyr into the family dog, neither have had formal training when they did this. So yes I think BR figured out how to skinchange on his own, and that he did sp frequently

Yep...the rebs opposing the Lannisters would def drive Tywin to Viserys and Dani, with possible dornish and reach support, could get messy

Oh yea i get it, I was simply saying I get the point of view that the alliances seem a bit contrived, and I agree that something probably happened with Ned and Ashara, maybe not an official bethothal, but the other Dornish ladies we have meet are not bothered by such things, so it's no great a stretch to say Ashara wouldn't be either, but yes there is something there. I think something is up with Edmure as well, perhaps another alliance that feel through?

This is interesting, and you are right to a degree I think, the bethothals don't make much sense except for plot convenience, to set the sides for Robert's Rebellion. For example I think a double marriage between Stark and Tully makes more sense, if Rickards intent was to bring the riverlands under his rule,(which is not certain), meaning Brandon and Cat and Edumure And Lyanna, so this way the next generation of both houses would be tied(the way Daeron the good brought Dorne into the realm btw). However even those factions are loosely defined and in flux, not to mention the fact that thier may or may not be a third faction, led by Tywin and Reagar, that is also possibly working to build political power to oppose Aerys. It all gets real messy and to me the only thing certain is that there are several pieces of very important information still missing. As for Ben specifically, he does not seem resentful or bitter with his lot in life(the watch), in fact, he seems content if not happy in the limited interaction that Jon has with him. So right now, I would say he definitely went there of his own free will, like Jon, I am not sure exactly why though.

He is Neds Heir before Robb is born

No...... Littlefinger became the manipulating dick that he is, primarily due to his childhood at riverrun and the duel with Brandon, he wasn't born that way, so no, outright manipulation of Lords paramount and the IT is simply not in his playbook at this time

I'd say yes, the fact that house Velayron is depicted as much more powerful and influential in the world book and FaB, than in the main series, in which they are barely mentioned, suggests such a recent setback is not only possible, but likely They go from a family that can challenge the free cities for supremacy in the narrow sea without official support of the IT, to simply one of Stannis' barely significant bannermen, a very big change.

Honestly my main thoughts from this is the mathematical conversion in the first half of your post... If 20 stone=280 pounds that mean that... At 40 stone, The mountain weighs in at 560 pounds... Holy fuck

Nailed it Haha for real though, both are terrible, but no worse or better than Jon Arryn or Hoster Tully, a couple of "good guy" patriarchs, so it's all relative I think Edit: actually, of the four I mentioned, by modern standards, Tully is far and away the worst, the other 3 were ruthless to thier enemies, Hoster forcibly aborted his own grandchild to save face.

There are mines In the hills on great wick, aeron complains that lord(I think goodfoot, but I cant remember off the top) holdfast is inland, away from the sea, he also muses that thier smallfolk are miners and such, I'll look up specifics if anyone is interested, this is just from memory

no, not yet, but she will doe soon I think

I admit I could be very wrong about this, but my feeling is that if Theon was going to die he would have already done so, at this point, living and facing those he has wronged is a greater punishment for him than dieing. No Godless man may sit the seastone chair..... The name Theon literally translates to of God or godly...so yea.. theon is in it for the long haul

The timelines in the world book are definitely suspect. The Andals claim they learned iron working from the Smith himself, most likely both they and the Valyrians learned from the Rhoynar. The world book dates the the destruction of the Rhoynar and Nymerias exile at between 700 to 1000 years ago. Most likely the Andal date of colonization is closer to this timeframe than the 4000, tbh 2k even seems high given this context. The Andals themselves claim the Seven themselves lead them to Westeros for no reason other than it was thier "promised land" and make no mention of fleeing from dragon fire. The Rhoynar exodus and wars are much better documented. I believe all the free cities save Bravos where founded by Valyria, meaning there may have been much smaller settlements where Pentos and Lorath are now, and only grew to thier size and influence with Valyrian influence and support. I regards to Bravos, to support a Navy and city that size, they simply must control some part on mainland essos for resources, everything cant be brought in by trade. It is never mentioned but I would definitely assume that any andals left in essos after the Doom, either were absorbed by one of the growing free cities(and due to Geographic convenience, pentos makes the most sense) or wiped out by the dothraki, there is simply no where else they could go.

It really is