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Tywin's Wallet

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Everything posted by Tywin's Wallet

  1. Very much agreed. I see the situation he's stepping into one of a pressure cooker, enemies in all sides closing-in, enemies his team wasn't counting on or is prepared to fight like Euron , enemies that will be ahead of Varys at times, who thrive on rumors, mistrust and chaos (Little Finger, Tyrells even Stannis), self-serving characters with spies planted everywhere (sand snakes / Doran) - also it will not be so easy to get the love of the people due to the Golden Company wanting to get a piece of the plunder and displacing people who already live in certain lands and lords who have the loyalty of their small folk. The faith may represent another problem his plan to get the people on his side if he picks the wrong wife (Arianne not a saint, or as bright as Margaery imo) - Either he turns into tyrant or abdicates for a more experienced person (Daenerys like you said) or loses and Cersie and/or Euron step up on the throne or does something really desperate like try to tame a dragon to secure power and die or unleash a tragedy. I think where this Blackfyre plan went toast was a little after Robert died or maybe Joffrey. When they were alive, the small folk did have a longing Targaryens when the Lannisters where burning the river lands, but after that, their longing probably turned into support of the faith militant which for better or worse has become their champion. It's going to be interesting.
  2. Well, no one knows how this can go, but when thinking of Sansa as of now, you have think about what Little Finger thinks it's best. Sansa is his bargain chip, but LF is not so impulsive as to give her away to a pretender who doesn't have lands or titles yet, just a promise. I think it would be more typical of LF if he were to gather intelligence about Aegon first, and exploit Aegon's story gaps to spread rumors that he isn't a Targaryen to create chaos, distrust and get him out of the way. - LF has a bit more sway than Varys with the Tyrells whom he has collaborated to get rid of Joffrey - this isn't entirely different. Right now it looks like Arianne may want to make a marriage bid with fAegon which if it works, it would probably take a Margeary's bid off the table and the Tyrells would go back to scheming in response. I think LF would probably set the seeds of mistrust with a powerful house (even if Aegon is true), specially if he learns that Daeny has taken control of Slavers Bay and a return to Westeros is inevitable or if Daeny refuses to meet with Aegon. LF thrives in war aftermaths and family disputes, he'd pit Danny's and Aegon's side against each other betting on their mutual destruction so he gets the throne. - If fAegon marries Margeary, same deal - spread rumors as Danny arrives and get people to abandon Aegon to split the realm. You have a norther rebellion up north - and a crumbled riverlands, they're not want to risk fighting 3 dragons and a massive army for someone who might or might not be who he says he is. Specially if Aegon can't bond with a dragon, he's credibility would be toast. - IMO Sansa is a predictable character - She's most likely going to be a ruler at the end of this. Yes she's learning a lot, may pull one or another trick to take the north or the vale, then give LF a taste of his own medicine but she's fairly safe and protected. If LF marries her to fAegon, she'd die for sure. - And this is all discounting Euron too who's currently a big plan wrecker for team Aegon. Not discounting what he might do to Dany, but he's not going to be easy to beat.
  3. Thank you! and also, sometimes people forget the current situation he's stepping into if he takes the throne: 1) Euron- he fights with magic, something team fAegon isn't prepared for. He is also brutal and not exactly someone you can have a" parlay" with. Who knows he'll probably find out Illyrio's , Varys plans through a glass candle or would try to manipulate fAegon through dreams giving him advantage. And like you said he doesn't have a navy, unless Aurane Waters happens to side with him and brings ships or the Redwines are willing to take up the burden - but they have to defend their lands since Euron is advancing and fAegon has nothing to offer them really, they are stretched thin. 2) Team fAegon is holding on the dream that he'll easily get the Dragons. JC was already freaking out that Daenerys is behind their schedule and pointed out that without guaranteeing that his team has the upper hand he has nothing to offer in return for allegiances. Certainly you can rally around a marriage - but marrying fAegon to another house sounds like too much risk of losing the dragons so he's obviously not all too open to the idea unless he offers his own hand in marriage, but he's got gray scale so, can he? 3) Faith militant - A popular opinion is that he'll walk in to KL and kills Cersei. Unless the HS is in Illyrio's payroll, they are still a problem in KL, even if Cersei blows them up. The faith is popular with the people and anyone seeking support will have to hear the people on this. They're not just going to suffer have the last shred of protection they had just to let another incestuous arrangement take place. With that, I think he can strike a deal with the faith if he agrees to forbid incest, but since his cousin Arianne is looking to marry him House Martell would get slighted, and again he won't be able to get Daenerys to marry him. So that's another wrench, probably it's more a trade off, but I don't know how secure he'll feel w/o dragons tbh. He's still facing Euron and the north rebellions. 4) Little Finger: I don't mistrust that he will take advantage and start spreading rumors, starting with Stannis up north just to intensify his rebellion (if he wins WF) or through the Tyrells (with whom he's teamed up before). Varys might fight his intel attacks to the death, but once little finger catches on to some juicy piece of info, there's no stopping that guy. I don't believe he'll just accept this Aegon without finding out wassup, if he hasn't already found out that is. Varys can't do everything by himself either with JC going mad and everyone in the team not being well familiar with current Westeros. If Tyrion could smell something was off fairly easy, I don't doubt LF could throw a wrench in their plans. 6) I think when Daenerys comes , lords are gonna feel nervous. If rumors are running rampant that fAegon isn't true and, if the true Targaryen with a massive army and dragons convinces even just a couple lords that Aegon is fake, say hello to a whole lot of lords reconsidering their allegiances and terrified they made the wrong choice. And also remember that Vary's isn't that well liked or trusted. I think people may start noticing when the Mad King's daughter doesn't want to marry him easy or cave to his feet. You don't think the like of Olenna Tyrell may not ask why is it that her nephew was kept a secret from Daenerys when they get to know about her story? People seem to assume that no one would care if fAegon is fake, but the reality is that lords that supported Blackfyres lost everything, they were stripped of their lands titles, many where exiled. It's no joke if fAegon's plot falls through, which is probably why the insistence on marrying Danny- to trap her into a situation she cant escape. If people start doubting fAegon will have to face the dragon, possibly alone or with a couple houses only, no one's gonna want to risk their lands and titles for the wrong person - sorry that's just Westeros. I don't why people seem to think this will be easy for fAegon, as if problems go away with a new king, lol . fAegon stepped in a pressure cooker they weren't counting on.
  4. I think (f)Aegon's story will be a lot like Henry VII if he's a Blackfyre. If someone finds out and starts spreading the rumor, if he himself learns he's truly a pretender, if Jon Con finds out he's a pretender, he'd always feel like he's reign is in danger and someone will be always just about to out him. The perfect storm to create a paranoid tyrant that has to rule with an iron fist to command fear and respect. Just like Henry VII (who also had a paper-thin claim and flew the dragon banner). I think his story and Dany's got conflated in the show that's how we ended up with an all-out tyrant at the end. In the books I think (f)Aegon's heritage will be the bane of his reign, and push him toward tyrannical practices to desperately cling to the throne. He's a weak boy. Book smart, but not tried and seasoned in ruling and also described as impulsive. What do you think a character like that would do in a foreign land where no one sees him as legitimate ruler or who has to be constantly watchful that his secret won't come out? Dany and Jon (assuming R+L=J) on the other hand, are a full Targaryens. Either one would have much less reason to become paranoid the same way a pretender would. We know Jon would get more support if he can prove his heritage against that of (f)Aegon's. Daenerys is the daughter of the Mad king and she has dragons and silver hair to prove it, it would probably be easier for her to gain more support than (f)Aegon if Jon's story doesn't come out . Those two are in a more secure position than (f)Aegon ever would be. That may be how KL burns, the perfect situation where no-one wins (if I can't have it, you can't either - in whatever direction), and pushes Daenerys' north.
  5. If fAegon foolishly does that, get ready for fAegon the paranoid tyrant. He'd be just like Henry VII with a non-claim and desperately hanging on to his throne by any and all means. He would need to become a monster to those who he thinks he can't trust, those who deny his right to the throne, demand total submission from people who pledge loyalty and rule with an iron fist. He's been also shown as somewhat impulsive and temperamental, so it's not far fetched that's where he may end up if he's dumb enough to out himself.
  6. I have a theory that this is how KL will burn. There is no way to proof ancestry in Westeros. But we know that only those with Targaryen / Old Valyrian blood can bond with dragons. I think there's some telling/foreshadowing that the quantum of this blood matters for dragon-bonding in both Brown Ben Plum and Quentyn Martell stories. Brown Ben Plumm, while his blood is very mixed, may have Targaryen/ Valyrian blood quantum through two theorized Targaryen ancestors. Vyserion takes a liking to him, we can speculate that he's reacting to the blood in him. On the other hand, Quentyn only has a drop through one Targaryen in his family tree, but the dragons did not respond to him. I think this is trying to show that dragon-bonding with diluted Valyrian blood is a dangerous bet. While not much is known about (f)Aegon yet to see just how diluted his blood might be, it's pretty clear that House Blackfyre hasn't exactly been able to keep the blood lines pure from the get. There is a lot of Tyroshi, other Westerosi in their mix and surely other bloods since living in exile; that makes (f)Aegon's bonding with a dragon a dangerous proposition. We know however, that (f)Aegon already felt that he could be entitled to one of Dany's dragons before Tyrion told him not to think like a beggar. I think that Dany will foolishly play on (f)Aegon's entitlement to proof his lineage by bonding with Rhaegal or Vyserion (maybe even Drogon), he'll fail to command the dragon and unleash the burning of KL. In the end, it's the type lose-lose situation that the story is heading to because 1) (f)aegon loses his life 2) It would cause divide in Westeros about Dany's position as claimant, getting a lot of blame for the burning making her unpopular if (f)Aegon is loved. 3) the burning would unchain the wildfire leaving her in an impossible situation to get out of specially if trying to restore Targaryen rule. This also fits well with one of her prophecies from the House of the Undying ones where she's proclaimed the "Slayer of Lies" (through king-slaying and maybe even dragon slaying if things get really out of control up in the sky). It also fits with her search of the 3 heads, she may not fully trust that (f)Aegon is a Targaryen, but not completely willing to dismiss the possibility. It's a sad situation for all involved.
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