Illyrio Mo'Parties

OT: what's the best Elric of Melnibone book to start with?

I still cling to the hope that there's something more going on with Doran than meets the eye. I'm half-convinced - with some evidence! - that Doran wanted Quentyn to harmlessly waste his time in the Free Cities, and although that involved entrusting Quentyn with a dangerous secret, it didn't involve trusting him with anything Doran thought was really crucial. And it seems to be the case that Doran isn't ever going to rely on Arianne for anything important either. (Yes, I know that he's sent her to see Aegon, but I think that expedition is totally under Doran's control, and is merely an intelligence gathering and bet-hedging exercise. I mean, he tells her that one raven from her will mean the difference between peace and war, but can we trust him?) (As an aside: when Doran tells Arianne that Dorne doesn't really have 50,000 spears, do we have any independent confirmation that he's telling the truth? Maybe that's the lie!) But what possible explanation could there be for Doran not preparing his kids for their political futures? I can only think of crazy reasons: 1. He plans to disinherit them both one day 2. They're not really his kids 3. They're his kids, but he's not really Doran Martell 4. He's Doran Martell, and they're his kids, but he has a secret older sibling whose children are the rightful heirs to Dorne If all the Dornish story amounts to is, "Doran fucked up", then I think we'll all be pretty disappointed. It's not that "Doran fucked up" is a bad story... but it ought to be a short one. GRRM's devoted a lot of pages to it (and still will), and what's more, he's written it in a way that deliberately promotes mystery. Multiple conflicting POVs, none of which are the actual major player, suggests that said major player has something hidden up his sleeve.

Potato, potahto.

Yeah, I think that part was meant to show us that she's still superficial - she liked Darkstar because of his looks, and she thinks she's learned that lesson, but here she is disliking Lysono because of his looks, again judging a book by its cover. Not the sharpest knife in the drawer, should be pretty easy to manipulate. Doran dun goofed - you'd think after 17 years he could've scrounged up some better agents than his idiot family. Now he's fucked.

Interesting. If theories about Doran being not so green as he's cabbage-looking1 are true, then this would fit exactly with his M.O. - let Arianne think she's taken on more responsibility than she has, see how she handles it, try to gauge her abilities - perhaps while sending along more trusted agents2 to keep an eye on her and give an independent report. As well as saddle her with Elia Sand, to drive home the point about recklessness and silliness, and perhaps to help her see her previous actions from Doran's perspective. That Doran, he's a crafty one... we hope. ------------------------------------------------ 1. As my mother would say. 2. This idea I find interesting: which, if any, are the secret agents in Arianne's party? It's probably not Elia Sand, which leaves... well, you know what, this ain't exactly relevant only to this particular chapter, and this thread is already 44 pages long, so I'll start a new topic. Watch this space! Edit: here 'tis

I think you're most likely right, but I do want to throw out a possibility why Euron would spare the west without necessarily it being to set up a Cersei alliance: by bypassing the Westerlands and the North, the traditional and most recent targets of Ironborn war, Euron is signalling to his men and the realm that he has bigger dreams. It's audacious: hitting the Shield Islands, raiding the Mander, taking the Arbor and perhaps attacking Oldtown: nobody would've thought this was possible, but Euron's doing it, and this frightens his enemies and emboldens his men. Compare with Hannibal crossing the Alps. Not to mention, it fits Euron's character: he's mad as a box of frogs, and he wants the Iron Throne, or more; he doesn't care about the little things, and Lannisport to him is perhaps one of those little things. There's also a strategic element, potentially: if the Redwyne fleet is the only serious naval presence left in Westeros (and as far as Euron knows, it is), then by attacking the Reach he can force a confrontation with it. Whether he's drawing them into a magical trap or not, he at least has taken the initiative and will be able to fight the coming battle on his terms. And if he wins, then he gains naval supremacy over the whole of Westeros. Move fast, strike hard, win a few early victories and then shock the realm with something audacious: it seems Euron and Jon Connington think alike. (Is Euron = Daario = Jon Connington = Rhaegar = Neo = Freedom?!?) Like I said, most likely you're right and it's just an excuse to make a coming Euron/Cersei alliance make more sense, but if that doesn't happen there's still plenty of justification for his moves. I hope I'm not repeating anything that's already been said. Further thought: if Cersei burns down King's Landing, as some have theorised, how will that affect her potential relationship with Euron? Will he admire her audacity and her evil? Or will he be angry at her for destroying his prize?

His father? Maybe, but the Greyjoys all seem like pretty terrible people. And it's not like there was police or teachers or social services he could've called, like in the real world.

Hear hear

Well, I don't think "Crows" refers specifically to Euron Crow's Eye, but I do think it refers to him, among others. If memory serves, the "feast for crows" metaphor - is it Jaime that comes out with it? - has to do with how crows scavenge meat from the dead after a battle; now, with the war over, there will be plenty of "crows" come to "feast" on the leftovers, i.e. the weakened state of the realm provides opportunity to certain unsavoury characters, both big and small. Euron being one of the biggest.

Kudos for picking up those biblical references. I ain't too au fait with the good book myself, but I suppose there are also echoes of Cain and Abel in Euron killing his brothers, and of Job in Aeron's suffering and temptations. My frame of reference is considerably more vulgar, but Euron reminds me of a few great villains - the Joker, sure, but also Anton Chigurh from No Country for Old Men and the sheriff from Pop. 1280, both of whom seem to have moved beyond ordinary human considerations of right and wrong. The sheriff - spoiler alert! - even literally comes to see himself as the second coming of Christ, and Chigurh at least sees himself as an avatar of fate, or the judgment of the universe. With that in mind, I don't consider Euron's war on the gods to be proof of atheism; and when he claims to be a god, he's not just taunting Aeron. I think that reveals something about how he sees the world, and his place in it. Maybe he doesn't literally consider himself a god, but he certainly seems to think himself profoundly superior to the rest of humanity. He's nek-levellin' it.

There's no accounting for taste, of course, but personally you're confusing "complicated" for "interesting". Also: Damphair is the shit. I'll never understand why people don't find him fascinating.

Yah, to be clear, I'm not saying Varys and Illyrio have no role to play, nor even that they couldn't make important things happen still; just that they're less important/powerful than they were, now that the game is also being played out in the open, and by more players, and such. They've lost a degree of control - but it's a sacrifice they were going to have to make, if they ever wanted to win.

Thanks for reminding me about the Elder Brother. As for Varys & Illyrio... I agree that they'll be doing everything in their power to help Aegon, but now that their scheme has moved from an espionage phase to a more conventional military phase, their power is diminished. Varys can pull some strings in King's Landing, like he did in the ADWD Epilogue, and that will help. But it's really just battlespace preparation, and it's up to Jon Connington and Aegon himself to actually win that battle. We've seen from Tyrion and Jon Connington's chapters that Aegon is making his own decisions, independent of what Varys and Illyrio might have planned. And now they're actually in Westeros, swinging swords... could Varys or Illyrio have helped them take Storm's End? I doubt they even knew about it until it was done. Things have moved out of their sphere of influence, and the pace of events has picked up too: frankly, I doubt Illyrio can have too much influence at all now, unless he pulls a diplomatic coup in Essos. By the time information gets to Illyrio from Westeros, events will have passed him by entirely. Even Varys will be struggling to keep up. Nay, it's all in Aegon and Jon Connington's hands now... unless I'm completely wrong. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Re: Euron's collection of tongues, we have to keep in mind that he's mad as a spoon, and may just enjoy the silence. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ah, but did he? Let's say I have a trinket. You think it's very valuable, and I think it's a worthless piece of shit. If I give you the trinket, am I really being generous? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Euron reminds me of a story I read about Charles Manson. Supposedly he was in Venice Beach - this is before the murders - and he was preaching his standard hippie crap to a crowd there assembled. "Imagine no possessions", all that garbage. And a guy says, hey, you're saying we ought to give up all our possessions, but I don't see you giving up that nice van you have. And Charlie says, you want it? Take it, and gives him the keys. This is the sort of thing that impressed the teenage runaways and muddle-headed freaks who became the Manson Family. But it was all bullshit. Manson wasn't above stealing things, or mooching off wealthy patrons. What did it pain him to give away his car, when he knew he'd get another one somehow? And when he knew that the act of giving it away would bring more people to his side? Which is what was really important to him. It's hard to get the measure of someone as loopy as Charles Manson, because his scale of value is so askew. Ditto for Euron, or the Joker, or any similar monstrous lunatic. But it makes for a fascinating character. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Three more things: 1. This notion that Euron is an agent of the Others strikes me as wishful thinking. The evidence is thin, and the course of Euron's life doesn't go anywhere near the North. I don't doubt that Euron is destined for more than merely being the latest pretender to the throne, but secretly working for the Others? I can't see Euron working for anyone but himself. 2. I will never understand why people didn't like the Aeron chapters. He's awesome! Sadly, he's probably not long for this world. How long do you think a man can survive lashed to the prow of a ship? He's effectively crucified. 3. I don't give much credence to the idea that Euron is working with the Faceless Men, either. But hiring them with a dragon egg? Perfectly plausible. Lots of people are pooh-poohing the idea because the Bravoosi presumably hate dragons, but you're forgetting that, prior to Dany's miraculous hatching, a dragon's egg was merely a valuable trinket. Quoth Jorah: "My queen, Drogo will have no use for dragon's eggs in the night lands. Better to sell them in Asshai. Sell one and we can buy a ship to take us back to the Free Cities. Sell all three and you will be a wealthy woman all your days." Of course, there's the problem that the dragon's egg probably wasn't worth that much to Euron, and the Faceless Men require a true sacrifice... but, I don't know, maybe he's just a really good liar. Or maybe he used an intermediary who did value a dragon's egg. We'll have to wait and see.

Wha? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nah, Varys & Illyrio have shot their wad, and their ability to effect change is vastly diminished. They work best behind the scenes, but Aegon has stepped onto the stage now, and his fate is out of their hands. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AZOR AHAI ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What? FF? What? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I wonder about the practicality of that. It seems this chapter explains why a man as crazy as Euron would inspire any loyalty at all, that is, by being very open-handed with the loot. But how many people are willing to trade their tongue for some treasure? Surely he must have at least some loyal compadres aboard the Silence who can still talk. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bloody hell, she got pregnant fast. Unless he's got... magic sperm!? TWOW really is going to be epic

Well, sure, officially that's the Faith's position, but they seem to tolerate what would be heresy in the Catholic church: there's no priest in the world who's gonna contend that there's actually three separate gods.

@Lord Varys As for Cersei, I'll have to respectfully disagree, although you do raise some good points. (I forgot she'd admitted to fornication.) I'll concede I've overstated my case for her remaining powerful, but I think the reverse is unlikely to be true either, i.e., I can't see her getting locked up in a tower by Mace Tyrell, even if he does think she killed Pycelle. I'll explain my reasoning in a bit, but first, some of your particular objections: You seem to think that the regency is to be appointed by the Small Council, but I submit that the present situation is so unusual that there isn't really a legal precedent, and so the issue will be decided by force. Not, I hasten, military force, although that's a remote possibility. It's more a case of Varys's riddle: power resides where people believe it resides, and so the question here is, who will be able to convince everybody that power resides with them? I agree Mace will most likely have the Small Council in hand, at least at first, but that advantage could be neutralized. Cersei has an advantage of her own, namely her personal connection to the king. (And here I add that Cersei may well find being the king's mother sufficient to her purposes, and leave the regency to Mace.) I foresee Mace and Cersei politicking against each other, and in some instances it may well come down to who blinks first. And I don't think it's particularly relevant that the Lannister army isn't in the city. They can be there in a matter of days. Sure, that's not close enough to save Cersei if Tyrell wants her dead or imprisoned, but, Cersei's diminished status notwithstanding, I don't think he could do that without antagonising the Western lords and risking bringing that army into conflict with his. The Lannister army is still a factor he'd have to contend with if he were thought to be depriving the queen mother of her place at court without cause. Finding that cause will probably be a focus of his efforts in the early parts of TWOW. As for Varys, I don't mean to suggest that he'd support Cersei against the Tyrells for her sake, but that he needs her to be a viable political entity for the near future so that she can feud productively with the Tyrells. If Mace is able to effectively sideline Cersei, he'll be able to focus on fighting Aegon, and that's not in Varys's interest. I'll go further, though: I think having Cersei be the acknowledged power in King's Landing is good propaganda for Aegon. Cersei is a better villain than Mace, and if he can say that this false king is ruled by his wicked, scheming mother, the admitted harlot, etc, it better paves the way for his victory. And it's this that most makes me think she won't be sidelined by the Tyrells. She's too important to Varys - but only, of course, for the short term.

@Lord Varys "...it seems chapters were supposed to take place at Casterly Rock in AFfC at one point." Is that right? Where'd you hear that? I actually think we're relatively in agreement about Mace and Aegon. I certainly agree with this... "Mace certainly wouldn't jump ships and join Aegon at once. But if he is defeated in battle or abandoned by a majority of his vassals then this certainly would be a possibility." ... I just think it would take a political calamity of that nature, or worse, to force him to give up his ambitions. The only things that will force House Tyrell to join Aegon for an absolute certainty are the deaths of Tommen, maybe Myrcella, and/or Mace himself. It's Mace's ambition that is the driving force behind Tyrell moves (that is, if Olenna can be believed), and that ambition is best served by the Lannister alliance: he gets his daughter as queen, and his grandson as king. If Mace is ambitious as everybody says, I can't see him giving up on that dream without a fight, which will, I think, force him tighter into the Lannister embrace. "And Aegon actually can't afford not try to woo the Tyrells. They are simply too powerful... [they've] about 100,000 men, after all." Well, we don't know how many men he truly controls until we know how many friends the Golden Company has. It may turn out that Aegon can afford not to woo House Tyrell. Nah, you're right, it's very much in Aegon's interest to bring the Tyrells onside. It might even be in House Tyrell's interest - but my point is, it's not in Mace's interest, and won't be until it's too late. The time to make the marriage alliance with Aegon is now, when he's weak and needs help. But a weak Aegon is no threat to Mace's dream, and so the thought of changing sides will never enter his head. It's only later, when Mace is comparatively weak, that he'd even consider it - say, after Aegon wins the Stormlands, is perhaps joined by Dorne and some friends in the Reach, is marching on King's Landing, etc. But at this point, Aegon will most likely have his marriage already arranged; even if he doesn't, will Mace have enough leverage to get his thrice-married daughter made queen again? I think not. At that point, forced to choose between abandoning Tommen or clinging onto his royal dream, I'd bet on the latter. Expect Mace Tyrell to be ambitious past the point of good sense. That's why I say that by the time events forced him to abandon Tommen, it may be time for him to stop worrying about losing the throne and start worrying about losing Highgarden.

Bloody hell, you don't check in for two days and this thing just keeps going and going! Others have pointed out why she probably won't be taken Arianne hostage, so I'll just say that if she is, it's more Doran's fault than hers. The risk, such as it is, was apparent from the get-go, and he's the one giving orders and pushing chess pieces around and shit. It would be more evidence that he sucks. Ooh, great idea! That would be a great way for us to see Casterly Rock, and would also be a great opportunity for Cersei's story to develop. Let's face it, if she stays in King's Landing for the rest of the story, she's basically going to be scheming and ambitious until somebody kills her. If she goes home, though, she might have the chance to accept defeat and grow as a character, or perhaps to reckon with her history. There's been a lot in the story about the Lannister family, and about how Tywin's poisonous fatherhood doomed them all from the start. It somehow makes sense for at least one of the Lannister children to come full circle on that. It also sets her up for certain theories to play out, i.e. Tyrion could retake Casterly Rock, perhaps by flooding the sewers and drowning the inhabitants, just like his hated father did at Castemere all those years ago. That would complete his downfall, as he becomes the same villain his father was, while also enabling Cersei to have the life choked out of her by the valonqar. Juicy! That would also be cool. GRRM does live his symmetries. Hmm... I don't know about Tarly, but I can't see Mace joining with Aegon. It would render moot the mooted "friends in the reach". Not to mention, from Connington's perspective, Mace has now joined himself to the usurper. He may prefer to have those friends overthrow the Tyrells even if they propose to abandon Tommen. I think you're underestimating Cersei's position here. Let's say she wins her trial. That means she's proven innocent, and there's no grounds to keep her from power. Optics matters: the trial will establish her legitimacy, and who'd have the balls to gainsay it? To disobey the legitimate Queen Regent is to break the law, which few people have the stomach for; to stymie her is to invite trouble from the still considerable Lannister forces. That they aren't in the immediate vicinity doesn't matter; they have the power to enforce some pretty gnarly consequences should anyone wound their liege lady. (Or is she the liege lord? I don't know how that works.) The Faith Militant is still probably not so powerful as to be able to take the city against the remaining Lannisters and the City Watch (and if, as someone else speculated, Varys is controlling the goldcloaks, that means they'll be supporting Cersei for the time being). And the Tyrells would be crazy to provoke war with the Westerlands when the situation in the rest of Westeros is so fluid. It's a Lannister-Martell betrothal that keeps the Dornish in line, it's Lannister promises and threats that have subdued the Riverlands and the North; the Iron Islands are in open rebellion still, and the Vale's still unaccounted for. Not to mention that it's the supposed legitimacy of the Lannister scion that gives the Tyrells a route to the throne at all. No, the Tyrells are pretty well yoked to the Lannisters, and the Faith's betting everything on the trial. If she wins, which seems likely, they'll both be forced to publicly accept her legitimacy. But privately it will be a totally different matter. I see a scenario where both the Faith and the Tyrells are secretly trying to prove Cersei cheated the trial and/or murdered Kevan and Pycelle, while simultaneously, Cersei and her supporters are doing the opposite. Court intrigue could escalate quite dramatically in the near future; but seeing as how Varys will be helping Cersei at least some of the time, I'd say her chances of clinging to power are quite good. Of course, it won't last long, but then, it doesn't need to. Varys just needs to buy Cersei time to do some more damage, and as Littlefinger remarked, she's capable of destroying things much quicker than anyone expected. Speaking of whom, I think Littlefinger's the only wild card here. Does he involve himself in the King's Landing intrigues? Does he help Tyrell or Lannister? How does he feel about Aegon? Having said all that, I do think there's a possibility that the Faith could take King's Landing, perhaps declaring the High Sparrow king in the process. It's clear he's got something cooking, and it might just be that big. This could mean that Aegon has to fight the Faith to get to the Iron Throne, which would upset the realm, and might Dany an in if she ever does head west. It would even be ironic: Dany was supposed to be the one coming to ruin Westeros with a foreign army, allowing Aegon to come in and save the day. The situation could well be reversed. Bear in mind also the strong possibility that Dorne, through Aegon, may end up being responsible for the brutal slaughter of Myrcella and Tommen, thus becoming as bad as the Lannisters. Mmhmm, good call. Of course, that would throw a spanner in the works of the theory that Qyburn is working for Dorne, but I'm not sold on that one anyway. It could be cool. It depends how far he takes the whole Long Night thing. It may be that the Others are so disruptive that the question of who sits the Iron Throne becomes irrelevant. Unless the prophecy isn't perfectly accurate. Yes, he'll be upset, but he'll probably carry on as planned. The real question is, what will Nym and Tyene do? Will they depart from Doran's script? Eh, am I the only one who thinks that this cave is just colour? I can't see anybody returning to the rainwood at all, let alone some mystery cave that they found by accident. Disagree. The rainwood is huge on the map. Of course there'll be some wild weirwoods lingering there. No chance the Andals would have got them all. http://i.imgur.com/yMaGo.gif If that really is Myrcella... Another great catch! Disagree: sailors gossip, and Quentyn's story is good gossip. A Westerosi prince went to Meereen, but the dragon queen spurned him, so he tried to steal her dragons and got burnt to death. If they had newspapers that'd be in the first few pages, and I should think it fairly likely that some garbled version of the tale will make it back to Westeros with the first bits of news from the region. Bear in mind that ships won't be leaving for Dorne from Meereen, but they will from Volantis and Tyrosh and everywhere else, and the news will travel through those ports. I hope it also gives Hotah a chance to have his own story, get his own loyalties tested, all of that shit. He's a bit of a dud himself; seemingly just a way for us to see Dorne and Doran's plotting without us actually knowing what's going on. I shouldn't be surprised though if he finds something momentous at Starfall. GRRM has a habit of giving important info to the characters who don't need it, and leaving us to put the pieces together. Ah, but what if it's not Doran who pulled a switcheroo? What if Doran thinks he's sending back the real Myrcella, when really he's sending back Rosamund? What if this theory is bang on the money? Well, no, I think Mace is glued to Tommen pretty hard, and it'd take a lot to unstick them. If Tommen's king, then Mace's daughter is definitely queen, and his grandson definitely king. It took a lot of work to get there; I'd say Mace is more likely to defend his current, favourable position than risk ending up in a worse one. I say he sticks with Tommen until it looks like he might lose more than his royal connections, i.e. if it ends up looking like he'll lose the throne and Highgarden, he might cut his losses. But shit'd have to get pretty real before he gives up his ambition. Loras is fine. That whole thing was fishy as fuck. Besides, if Margaery can figure out it was Cersei's hope to get Loras killed, then Mace can. (Or somebody near to him can, and they can explain it to him.) If he really thought Cersei killed his boy, he'd be much less congenial than he is, so I suspect the boy is doing just fine and presently sailing round Dorne to fight some Ironmen. Disagree, per my timeline here Maar could have been involved, and I think he's probably too important not to have been, especially if they were using trickery and shenanigans to take the castle. Also, Connington was at Griffin's Roost for 6 more days after "The Griffin Reborn". Well, aside from it being a fantasy novel of course, it seems to be the case that the Faith of the Seven isn't that fussed about doctrinal, uh... discipline. (I couldn't think of a better word.) We've seen other examples of septons having somewhat heterodox ideas, and it doesn't seem like the Citadel has a working equivalent to the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. In fact it seems like the Citadel was mainly concerned with big dinners until the sparrows showed up. I do believe it was eight. ----------------------------- Fuck me, that was a lot of typing.

I think Arianne isn't really ambitious per se, but that her ambition is an expression of her jealousy and resentment towards Quentyn. Those feelings run too deep. For years, her mother has been absent and her father distant, and she's developed this idea that her father loves Quentyn more than he does her. I wouldn't be surprised if those feelings predated her discovery of the apparent plan to disinherit her; certainly they must have been reinforced by the way Doran failed to react at her attempts to get his attention (e.g. humping Daemon Sand). What will be interesting is how she reacts to the Quentyn storyline. I'm half-convinced that he's still alive, and if so, that could spell trouble. Say Quentyn rides back into Dorne atop a dragon: I predict Arianne won't take kindly to being outshined, especially in the eyes of her father (or so she imagines). She could well do something reckless to regain the #1 spot in daddy's heart. And if Quentyn's really dead, it's still possible her resentments could return to cloud her judgment, perhaps if she becomes jealous of her father's outpouring of emotion. Of course, it's also possible that she will grow out of those feelings, in which case perhaps tragedy can be averted. (Or at least, she won't be the one to cause it.) The cyclical nature of violence, and the difficulty, and importance, of breaking out of that cycle, is arguably a big theme of these books. (Preston Jacobs has much more on that, although it's probably too soon to say for sure.) What's extra tragic, or ironic, or whatever, then, is that it's partly Doran's thirst for vengeance that has messed up his daughter and potentially continued that cycle. Keeping Arianne in the dark and on the shelf may have been the best way to work at Tywin Lannister's downfall, but it's also given his daughter bone-deep emotional problems that could well lead to a fresh round of horror and tragedy. Perhaps there's even a touch of foreshadowing in Doran's big speech: "I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure. I take some small solace in knowing that he died a cruel death at the hands of the monster that he himself begot." -- "The Princess in the Tower", AFFC It hearkens back to something Tyrion said: "It all goes back and back, Tyrion thought, to our mothers and fathers and theirs before them. We are puppets dancing on the strings of those who came before us, and one day our own children will take up our strings and dance on in our steads." -- Tyrion X, ASOS If you like, there's a poem that says it pithier.

I could be spectacularly wrong too, but what the hell. As to whether the timeline permits Mace to be leading the Tyrell charge against Storm's End, the answer is... maybe? I could use some help plugging in some gaps below, actually. As of the ADWD epilogue, the Small Council is aware that Connington is approaching Storm's End, but doesn't seem to have taken the castle yet. But in TWOW, Arianne II, the men at Griffin's Roost say that Connington's done it, and an army from King's Landing is only a few days away. (1) Now, I can't see Mace Tyrell going to Storm's End if his daughter is found guilty and executed, so either she's found innocent, or he leaves before the trial. Now, if the latter, I can't see him skipping the trial (unless he thinks he's got it stitched up), but I can see him having the trial postponed while he goes to deal with Connington, and that's in keeping with his character - no doubt Mace thinks he could beat Connington pretty handily and be back at KL before the month is out. However, per the ADWD epilogue Mace seems pretty keen to get the whole thing over with. And as Lord Varys points out, it's only Kevan Lannister preventing him from overruling the Faith and simply having Tommen declare Margaery innocent. With Kevan dead, Mace may get the whole thing wrapped up pretty quickly, which would leave him free to deal with Connington. (Sidebar: overruling the Faith like that could upset both them and Randyll Tarly, which might give Jon Connington some interesting options if he tries to take King's Landing.) Either way - trial or no trial - Margaery is probably declared innocent before TWOW, Arianne II, for Mace to be leading the army. The question is, is it him that's leading the army? Arianne and Daemon Sand seem to think so, but it all depends on the timeline, so let's look closely and see what we find. Arianne's journey: Day A - message received at Sunspear (2) Day B - departs Sunspear Day C - arrives Water Gardens (3) Day 1 - departs Water Gardens Day 2 - Day 3 - arrives Ghost Hill Day 4 - sails aboard Peregrine Day 5 - arr. Weeping Town Day 6 - dep. Weeping Town Day 7 - Day 8 - Day 9 - Day 10 - arr. Mistwood; earliest date for taking of Storm's End, assuming ravenry delay Day 11 - dep. Mistwood; Storm's End not taken as far as Mistwood knows Day 12 - Day 13 - Day 14 - Day 15 - goodbye Chains, hello Lysono Maar Day 16 - Day 17 - Day 18 - arr. Griffin's Roost; Storm's End already taken; Haldon Halfmaester seems surprised they don't know; enemy army en route I assume Storm's End was taken at the earliest possible date, or close to it. Lysono Maar is probably too important to spare as an escort if the castle is untaken, especially if they're taking it through "guile". Also consider Haldon's reaction: he assumes they'd know already, but he must know that they've spent several days in the company of Lysono Maar and his disciplined cohorts, who may as well have been mute, according to Arianne. It's not definitive, but if Lysono & co. have a reputation for being tight-lipped, it gives Haldon a possible reason to assume that the Dornish must have heard about Storm's End before the two groups met, which would mean the battle happened several days earlier. Now let's look at Jon Connington's timeline: (Note: day 1 here is not the same as above, and so on.) Day 1 - siezes Griffin's Roost Day 2 - sends letter to Dorne Day 3 - Day 4 - Day 5 - Aegon arrives Day 6 - Day 7 - Day 8 - Day 9 - Day 10 - Day 11 - dep. Griffin's Roost (4) Day D - arr. Storm's End Day E - neutralize besieging army Day F - take castle Now, if it would take two or three days for Arianne's party to ride, I have to assume an army would be slower. Moreover, I don't know if they'd meet any resistance on the way, so I really have no idea how long it would take to march to Storm's End, nor how long it would take to win the castle once they arrived. It might take a while, but then again, D, E and F could very easily all happen on the same day. Now we don't know if there was time spent at Sunspear or the Water Gardens making arrangements between Arianne's days A and 1, but if we assume there was no dawdling at all, we can construct a minimum length of time between Doran receiving Jon's message and Arianne arriving at Griffin's Roost. Once we have that, we can cross-reference it with the JonCon timeline, and that can tell us how much time elapsed between his day 11 and the taking of the castle. From that, we can infer how much time his army was afield, which will give us a window of time in which we can place the ADWD epilogue, and hopefully, get an idea of how soon after that chapter must Margaery have been declared innocent, in order for Mace Tyrell to be leading the army against Storm's End. And if we know that then we can predict that Mace will lose, and Dorne will declare for Aegon, as will the rest of the Stormlands. Given that, and the Golden Company's "friends in the Reach", we can expect Aegon to take King's Landing and be sitting the Iron Throne by the end of The Winds of Winter. This will set us up nicely for a second Dance of Dragons, which will devastate the realm even worse than the War of the Five Kings did, and worse, will distract everybody so that the Others can sweep down unopposed. And once that happens we can suppose that the remainder of mankind will set aside their differences and vanquish their true enemy. Basically, we won't even need to read the rest of the books. So does anybody know how long it takes to go from Sunspear to the Water Gardens? Or even better - how long does it take to march an army from King's Landing to Storm's End? Subtract a couple of days from that, and you have the number of days between TWOW, Arianne II, and Margaery's being declared innocent. --------------------------- (1) “These rains have turned the roads to mud. The journey [from Griffin's Roost to Storm's End] would take two days, perhaps three,” said Halden Halfmaester. "A ship will have the princess there in half a day or less. There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.” -- Arianne II, TWOW. Haldon evidently thinks it a real possibility that this army might reach Storm's End within the next two or three days. (2) "We have heard the same tales here that you have heard at Sunspear," Lady Nymella told them as her serving man poured the wine. "Sellswords landing on Cape Wrath, castles under siege or being taken, crops seized or burned. Where these men come from and who they are, no one is certain." "Pirates and adventurers, we heard at first," said Valena. "Then it was supposed to be the Golden Company. Now it's said to be Jon Connington, the Mad King's Hand, come back from the grave to reclaim his birthright. Whoever it is, Griffin's Roost has fallen to them. Rain House, Crow's Nest, Mistwood, even Greenstone on its island. All taken." -- Arianne I, TWOW. It seems that the raven informing Lady Nymella about Arianne's trip came from Sunspear. Also: it seems that Ghost Hill hasn't heard about Aegon, but in the ADWD epilogue the Small Council has. Meanwhile, Ghost Hill is privy to information from which the Small Council could infer the identity of the new pirate king in the Stepstones, who remains mysterious to the council as of the ADWD epilogue. It seems like a lot of information is still in transit - rumours that have reached Ghost Hill haven't reached King's Landing, and vice versa - and I think this suggests that these chapters don't take place that far apart. (3) I don't have the books to hand, but I think the travel time here should be mentioned in AFFC chp. 2, "The Captain of the Guards", if anywhere. (4) "On the morning of the eleventh day, we ride for Storm's End." -- The Griffin Reborn, ADWD

With regard to Lord Varys's idea, the trip from King's Landing to Sunspear takes Balon Swann months, but that's with the Dornish lords stalling him all the way. As of the ADWD epilogue, Kevan believes Myrcella to be on her way, but we don't know how recent his intelligence is.

Well, that'll be the test, won't it? Can she learn her lesson? My money is on "no".

Maybe he's a bad Septon. Or maybe the old gods are accounted for in the Faith's cosmology

Well, I'm trying to figure out the timeline right now, but it's proving harder than I thought. Still, I think it's a definite maybe.

Well, it all depends on the timeline. They leave Sunspear at some point after AFFC, chp. 38 ("The Watcher"). We don't know how long the journey takes from Sunspear to King's Landing; that same chapter might tell us, but bear in mind the Dornish lords have been deliberately slowing Balon Swann's southward journey. I'm in the process of constructing a timeline at the moment, but it seems like there's 15-20 days between the takings of Griffin's Roost and Storm's End. The ADWD epilogue takes place at least a day after the taking of Griffin's Roost, possibly a few more, and Myrcella has yet to make it back to King's Landing. Great catch, by the way. Edit: 15-20 days was a mistake. I can't be that certain when Storm's End was taken with reference to Griffin's Roost; it's 11 days, plus time marching, plus time fighting and/or conniving.