So was Viserys in the wrong?

[Ragnorak]

Illyrio thinks that the Dothraki will invade. While he isn't exactly the most trustworthy source, it is part of his plan and he does seem quite certain that the invasion will take place while he believes he's speaking privately with Varys. Jorah also believes that Dothraki will invade.

Illyrio waved a languid hand in the air, rings glittering on his fat fingers. “I have told you, all is settled. Trust me. The khal has promised you a crown, and you shall have it.”
“Yes, but when?”
“When the khal chooses,” Illyrio said. “He will have the girl first, and after they are wed he must make his procession across the plains and present her to the dosh khaleen at Vaes Dothrak. After that, perhaps. If the omens favor war.”

Ser Jorah, who had traveled as far east as Vaes Dothrak, nodded in agreement. “I counsel you to be patient, Your Grace. The Dothraki are true to their word, but they do things in their own time. A lesser man may beg a favor from the khal, but must never presume to berate him.”

All the indications we have in the text point to the Dothraki keeping their word and actually invading. The timeline is the only thing in question. The trip to Vaes Dothrak seems to be a required rite for a newly wed Khal. This was always part of the deal and Viserys was told about it on page. His suicidal impatient outburst occurred before the Vaes Dothrak trip was even over so I don't think we can attribute a "reasonable complaint" to his frustrations. Even if Drogo intended to get wed and immediately invade Westeros, this trip to Vaes Dothrak was included in the "get wed" part. He did the Westeros equivalent of demanding his reward for a marriage pact before the bedding. If a Dornishman married his sister to a Stark for the promise of a Northern army and a trip to Winterfell to perform some old gods rites before the heart tree was part of the marriage arrangement, Viserys did the equivalent of wig out before the trip to Winterfell was over. Whether he would or wouldn't have had cause for impatience doesn't really matter because he lost patience before "his side" of the bargain was even fulfilled.

The story seems to progress in accordance with the classic irony of Robert's assassination attempt causing an invasion that never would have otherwise happened. This is all a red herring since Robert dies and his line is usurped by Cersei's bastards amidst a massive civil war that is still raging as we move into book six. The Dothraki invasion that would have been never materializes. Still, that traditional story dynamic that Martin dangles for us before his sleight of hand makes it vanish entirely is so powerful that the notion of the Dothraki never invading seems to be prevalent among many readers. The only indications we have in the text are that the Dothraki will in fact invade just in their own time. Illyrio says they won't invade while Dany is pregnant. Varys then brings news to Robert of Dany's pregnancy to get him to hire an assassin and then tips Jorah off to foil the assassin or at least make the attempt known. Varys seems to be getting the Khal to bestir himself while Dany is with child to speed up the timeline of the invasion and not making an invasion that was never going to be happen.

Basically Drogo has to take his new wife home to meet mommy before he can go off storming castles and Viserys threatens to kill Drogo's unborn child (his own nephew and technically his own heir) in Drogo's mom's house because he thinks the drive to Drogo's mom's house took way too long. Drogo's mom was on the itinerary for the wedding invitations and everyone told Viserys that it would be a long boring trip that he'd hate and offered to comp him a nice suite in Vegas with some hookers instead of meeting his new hick banjo playing in-laws. He didn't even wait to find out if Westeros wasn't going to be the next stop after Drogo's mom so there isn't anything remotely reasonable about his impatience. He lost it before the invasion timer even started ticking.

[Lord Reaver]

Read the quote you yourself posted. Take note of the words "Illyrio said" before the part you bolded.

Yeah. That's where alarm bells should be going off.

[Ragnorak]

Read the quote you yourself posted. Take note of the words "Illyrio said" before the part you bolded.

Yeah. That's where alarm bells should be going off.

Yes.. and... ?

Jorah gives the same assessment and he doesn't have anything to gain by lying here. We also have Varys and Illyrio talking while they believe they have complete privacy and they give every indication that they believe the Dothraki will invade.

“Perhaps so,” the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. “Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages.”

“If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late,” the stout man in the steel cap said.

It is pretty clear that the Dothraki invasion actually happening figures into their plans. The Golden Company was told there would be a Dothraki invasion too. At no point do we here from anyone that the Dothraki will never make good on the promise. Ned says that they fear the open sea but Ned only knows of a marriage and not a marriage offered in exchange for a promised invasion of Westeros. Everything we have in the text points to the invasion happening and there isn't anything that indicates it never would have-- only indications that the timeline for such an invasion is highly uncertain.

[King of Swords]

Yes.. and... ?

Jorah gives the same assessment and he doesn't have anything to gain by lying here. We also have Varys and Illyrio talking while they believe they have complete privacy and they give every indication that they believe the Dothraki will invade.

I get the feeling Illyrio misled Viserys about how the Dothraki did business in order to get him to agree to the marriage.

It is pretty clear that the Dothraki invasion actually happening figures into their plans. The Golden Company was told there would be a Dothraki invasion too. At no point do we here from anyone that the Dothraki will never make good on the promise. Ned says that they fear the open sea but Ned only knows of a marriage and not a marriage offered in exchange for a promised invasion of Westeros. Everything we have in the text points to the invasion happening and there isn't anything that indicates it never would have-- only indications that the timeline for such an invasion is highly uncertain.

Considering their aversion to water we can't be sure of what they would do or not do. Illryrio could have overestimated how sure a thing it was to the Golden Company.

[Lord Reaver]

Jorah gives the same assessment and he doesn't have anything to gain by lying here. We also have Varys and Illyrio talking while they believe they have complete privacy and they give every indication that they believe the Dothraki will invade.

Jorah is, at this point, working for Varys.

[RoamingRonin]

Yes.. and... ?

Jorah gives the same assessment and he doesn't have anything to gain by lying here. We also have Varys and Illyrio talking while they believe they have complete privacy and they give every indication that they believe the Dothraki will invade.

It is pretty clear that the Dothraki invasion actually happening figures into their plans. The Golden Company was told there would be a Dothraki invasion too. At no point do we here from anyone that the Dothraki will never make good on the promise. Ned says that they fear the open sea but Ned only knows of a marriage and not a marriage offered in exchange for a promised invasion of Westeros. Everything we have in the text points to the invasion happening and there isn't anything that indicates it never would have-- only indications that the timeline for such an invasion is highly uncertain.

This.

If Illyrio and Varys weren't sure the Dothaki would cooperate, they would have gone with a different route. Their decades-long plan depends on it.

The Dothraki are perfect: Terifying, fearsome, foreign. Would give a good battle and cause adequate destruction but ultimately they would lose.

[SpringKing]

The Dothraki are perfect: Terifying, fearsome, foreign. Would give a good battle and cause adequate destruction but ultimately they would lose.

The Dothraki would lose if they were to attempt to conquer Westeros alone. With the right allies among Targ loyalists...

“If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late,” the stout man in the steel cap said.

The timing that Varys seems to refer to is the upcoming chaos of the Wot5K. A Dothraki invasion during peak chaos would have the best chance for success. "Too late" and the chaos subsides, allowing one or more factions to regroup and solidify their position(s).

As to the Targ loyalists - assuming Drogo leads his horde across the Narrow Sea for the Beggar King, Viserys - its expected that a good number of those loyalists would rally to his banner. If the plan is to use the Dothraki to attrit Westeros, what loyalists are left to back Aegon? The Gold Company alone isnt going to be enough to conquer a continent. And Illyrio has given Vis 3 eggs that, according to Jorah, will buy him all the sellswords he'd need.

Cant buy into the theory of a 2 war plan by V/I. We see from the scattered invasion of Aegon and the GC that war's unexpected consequences are rampant. The unanticipated effect of Renly's assassination tipped the balance against Stannis at Blackwater. It only took Robb's flesh wound at the Crag to tumble the dominoes toward a strategic Stark defeat. Two wars (Vis & Aegon) mean twice the unmanageable chaos. Better to go all in on one war with the Dothraki, GC, egg-bought mercenaries, and Targ loyalists, then jockey Aegon into power after victory. Much as Stalin allied with Lenin and Trotsky to seize power from the Whites, then turned on his former allies.

Before the Wot5K, Varys says: "Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever.” War only puts more balls in the air. I believe V/I's plan was to out Cersei's incestuous bastards themselves, showing Robert for a fool, and simultaneously present Vis, leading a Dothraki invasion, as the rightful Targ alternative. The Targ supporters rally behind, the Lannisters are discredited, while the 3 Baratheon factions point fingers at each other. Any sides supporting Robert look like clowns backing a jackass. When Varys warns Illyrio that Renly and Loras intend that Robert should wed Marg (Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen) he's tipping that Illyrio's plan depends on using Cersei's incest as its fulcrum. If Robert jettisons Cersei before Drogo's invasion, there is no erupting scandal in Robert's reign from which to take advantage.

[Viserys - The last dragon]

I have not read all the comments, but I know a lot of people in this forum believes that Illyrio was planning to kill Viserys and let Dany lead the troops- this I do not agree with. I believe that the plan was for Viserys to actually meet up with Aegon- and then they would tell him to fight for his "rightful" king. If Viserys would not do this then they would kill him/throw him aside.

[Hippocras]

I have not read all the comments, but I know a lot of people in this forum believes that Illyrio was planning to kill Viserys and let Dany lead the troops- this I do not agree with. I believe that the plan was for Viserys to actually meet up with Aegon- and then they would tell him to fight for his "rightful" king. If Viserys would not do this then they would kill him/throw him aside.

Well to me none of it adds up. Varys does not seem like a stupid man. Nor is he generally ill-informed. I don't know enough about Illyrio to say the same for him.

So why would and intelligent and exceptionally well informed man believe he could manipulate the Dothraki to do something so completely outside of their traditional practices as crossing the sea? Why would he believe that would work? And, they both had plenty of time to do a good character study of Viserys. He was very obviously a complete fool and very obviously a weakling the Dothraki would never follow. Nor is fAegon an exceptional example of courage and battle prowess. So again - why would the Dothraki go along with that?

[Daedric Justice]

Jorah gives the same assessment and he doesn't have anything to gain by lying here. We also have Varys and Illyrio talking while they believe they have complete privacy and they give every indication that they believe the Dothraki will invade.

_______________

Jorah is, at this point, working for Varys.

________________________

I don't think this is relevant because Jorah cold have told Dany the truth after he stopped working for Varys if he knew the whole thing was a set-up.

I don't think Jorah knew anything about Illyrio's intentions, or those of Varys. I think he was just agreeing with Illyrio's explanation of how the Dothraki roll. I.e. they don't trade, they accept gifts etc.. And he wasn't wrong in his assessment.

[MyaStoned]

The plan was not for Viserys to go with the Dothraki. They gave him the option to stay in Pentos. Perhaps he would have died in Pentos soon enough, but still.

My personal opinion is that the Dothraki angle was to get Dany out of the way. He knew that the Dothraki wives are never free afterwards. Even if the Khal died, Dany would be forced to live the rest of their days in Dosh Khaleen he thought. He also knew the Dothraki never cross the sea.

His real plan was fAegon and the Golden Company.

Dany being gotten out of the way doesn't make any sense. If he'd wanted them (both, or one of the other of them) out of the way, presumably he could have just killed them, without serious repercussions. The Dragon's eggs and the Dothraki army indicate something else. It's a bizarrely elaborate and particularly (and potentially powerful) way to get rid of somebody - "Here, become queen of this fierce band of warriors, oh and take these dragon eggs." Then he thinks to himself, "Ha! Got HER out of the way." I don't think so.

[Ragnorak]

Jorah is, at this point, working for Varys.

Actually Jorah at this point believes he is working for King Robert to spy on the exiled Targaryens in exchange for a pardon. This entire invasion scheme is actually Varys' plot and Jorah is most definitely not working for Varys to put Aegon on the throne. Do you have an actual case to make or are you sitting under a bridge throwing out of context facts against the wall?

I get the feeling Illyrio misled Viserys about how the Dothraki did business in order to get him to agree to the marriage.

Considering their aversion to water we can't be sure of what they would do or not do. Illryrio could have overestimated how sure a thing it was to the Golden Company.

Illyrio was misleading Viserys about a great many things including that whole part about putting him on the throne. What in the text makes you think Illyrio needed to lie to get Viserys to sign on to the marriage? Viserys tells Dany that he'd let the whole Khalassar and their horses fuck her to get his throne back. Those don't sound like the priorities of a guy who needs to be lied to about particulars to ink a "get my throne back" contract. He was essentially a homeless kid when Illyrio made his offer. It isn't like Viserys had any other options other than continuing to be homeless.

The Dothroki have a lot of "It is knowns" that cause angst when they're told to violate them. They still violate them. The Dothraki with Dany get on a ship and sail to Slavers Bay and they'll likely do it again if she takes them to Westeros. Where is the evidence that the Dothraki wouldn't cross the sea because of this salt water taboo? They do it for Dany and to the best of my knowledge there weren't any insurrections or defections when Drogo announced he was going to do it. We've seen Dothraki get in boats and sail across salt water. What is there in the text that undermines actual Dothraki seafaring?

[Hippocras]

Actually Jorah at this point believes he is working for King Robert to spy on the exiled Targaryens in exchange for a pardon. This entire invasion scheme is actually Varys' plot and Jorah is most definitely not working for Varys to put Aegon on the throne. Do you have an actual case to make or are you sitting under a bridge throwing out of context facts against the wall?

Illyrio was misleading Viserys about a great many things including that whole part about putting him on the throne. What in the text makes you think Illyrio needed to lie to get Viserys to sign on to the marriage? Viserys tells Dany that he'd let the whole Khalassar and their horses fuck her to get his throne back. Those don't sound like the priorities of a guy who needs to be lied to about particulars to ink a "get my throne back" contract. He was essentially a homeless kid when Illyrio made his offer. It isn't like Viserys had any other options other than continuing to be homeless.

The Dothroki have a lot of "It is knowns" that cause angst when they're told to violate them. They still violate them. The Dothraki with Dany get on a ship and sail to Slavers Bay and they'll likely do it again if she takes them to Westeros. Where is the evidence that the Dothraki wouldn't cross the sea because of this salt water taboo? They do it for Dany and to the best of my knowledge there weren't any insurrections or defections when Drogo announced he was going to do it. We've seen Dothraki get in boats and sail across salt water. What is there in the text that undermines actual Dothraki seafaring?

They only did it for Dany, who they witnessed walk out of a funeral pyre, unburnt, with 3 dragons. They may have done it for Drogo, but only AFTER he was so passionately enraged by the attempt on Dany's life. They would not have done it for him just to sack the place, since there are plenty of even richer cities in Essos to sack.

[Lord Reaver]

Actually Jorah at this point believes he is working for King Robert to spy on the exiled Targaryens in exchange for a pardon. This entire invasion scheme is actually Varys' plot and Jorah is most definitely not working for Varys to put Aegon on the throne. Do you have an actual case to make or are you sitting under a bridge throwing out of context facts against the wall?

Already made my case, actually.

But at least my facts are, you know, facts. As opposed to wild assumptions without any sort of base in the text, like "Jorah is most definitely not...".

Jorah isn't working for Robert, holy crap. Robert wouldn't know a spy network if one punched him in the nose. Jorah's contact is Varys. Since Varys is the one dangling the pardon in front of Jorah, he can pretty much tell him what to do. Which includes him playing into their plan (with or without knowledge of Aegon) of the dothraki-dany marriage.

Look, basing your plan on the chance that an assassin might fail and thus enrage Drogo enough to make him overcome his fear of the salty water is like basing your plan on winning the lottery. It's completely out there as far as scheming goes.

[Hippocras]

Lord Reaver -

Only the King could grant a royal pardon.

So in this case, yes, Jorah was working for Robert.

[Lord Reaver]

The King would grant whatever Varys told him to grant. Or rather, he'd tell his Hand to grant it. Come on now. What makes you think Robert would have anything more to do with the how's and wherefores of the actual assasination than he does with anything else going on in his realm?

He tells Ned to handle it. If that includes handing out a few pardons, so be it.

[Hippocras]

It was by his order that the assassin was sent, it was clear in the meeting that the contact the information came from was Jorah. What further evidence do you need? Robert may not have followed most details of running his kingdom very carefully, but when it comes to Targaryens the man was obsessive.

[Ragnorak]

Lord Reaver -

Only the King could grant a royal pardon.

So in this case, yes, Jorah was working for Robert.

Thank you.

Jorah believes that he is in fact the source of Varys' information to Robert about this planned invasion. He has no idea that the invasion is actually Varys idea in the first place. In order for Jorah to be lying for the benefit of Varys' plan he would have to actually know that this invasion was planned by Varys. He believes that he is informing on a Targaryen plot to Robert to win a pardon from Robert. "Working for Varys" Robert's Master of Whispers gives Jorah no motivation to lie on Varys behalf as the implication of "working for Varys" implies. Jorah is motivated by the possibility of gaining a pardon and nothing about that possibility gives him a reason to offer a false assessment of the Dothraki intentions to Viserys.

Already made my case, actually.

But at least my facts are, you know, facts. As opposed to wild assumptions without any sort of base in the text, like "Jorah is most definitely not...".

Jorah isn't working for Robert, holy crap. Robert wouldn't know a spy network if one punched him in the nose. Jorah's contact is Varys. Since Varys is the one dangling the pardon in front of Jorah, he can pretty much tell him what to do. Which includes him playing into their plan (with or without knowledge of Aegon) of the dothraki-dany marriage.

Look, basing your plan on the chance that an assassin might fail and thus enrage Drogo enough to make him overcome his fear of the salty water is like basing your plan on winning the lottery. It's completely out there as far as scheming goes.

Only one of your two proffered "facts" was a fact-- "Illyrio said." The implication being that merely because it was uttered by Illyrio that it must be wholly false. This series has plenty of lying liars who lie that happen to tell the truth sometimes and there is plenty of context actually cited to indicate that Illyrio was telling the truth on this point and none that was cited or even vaguely alluded to by you to indicate otherwise.

We have evidence in the text that Dothraki are willing to cross salt water-- Drogo's saying that he will and the Dothraki with Dany actually crossing salt water. Varys and Illyrio have a plan that relies entirely on the belief that the Dothraki will cross salt water. The Golden Company doesn't write back to Illyrio and laugh at him when he tells them Dothraki will be sailing across the sea so they at least found the idea plausible and they have a great deal more exposure to Dothraki than the typical Westerosi. Where is the evidence in the text that they won't ever do it to counter the evidence that indicates they would-- including the actual crossing of salt water by ship?

[Daedric Justice]

He tells Ned to handle it. If that includes handing out a few pardons, so be it.

____________________

Sorry but this is completely wrong.

Firstly, we know for a fact that Ned did not grant Jorah a pardon. Secondly, we have good reason to believe that Ned would not, under any circumstances, have granted Jorah a pardon.

He did not care about the Targs across the narrow sea. He saw them as no threat. Also, it was Ned himself who chased Jorah out of Westeros in the first place. It was Ned who said to Varys "you bring us the word of a traitor half a world away and call it fact?" I.e. Ned did not even trust Jorah or his information so why on earth would he have agreed to pardon him for it?

In short, Jorah was clearly working for Robert, unaware that Varys had his own agenda and was effectively pulling the strings. Ned had no part of any of it.

[Queen Whore]

Before the Wot5K, Varys says: "Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever.” War only puts more balls in the air. I believe V/I's plan was to out Cersei's incestuous bastards themselves, showing Robert for a fool, and simultaneously present Vis, leading a Dothraki invasion, as the rightful Targ alternative. The Targ supporters rally behind, the Lannisters are discredited, while the 3 Baratheon factions point fingers at each other. Any sides supporting Robert look like clowns backing a jackass. When Varys warns Illyrio that Renly and Loras intend that Robert should wed Marg (Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen) he's tipping that Illyrio's plan depends on using Cersei's incest as its fulcrum. If Robert jettisons Cersei before Drogo's invasion, there is no erupting scandal in Robert's reign from which to take advantage.

Could not agree more with Varys' juggling, but... I still do not think Viserys was the horse he was betting on.

I think it ties back to Varys creating chaos to seat the rightful heir- of he and Illyrio's choosing- on the IT. That would explain why the Hand needs to be silenced as he (they) put the pieces of the puzzle together. The information must break at EXACTLY the right time, or all is for naught.

It has to be clear to anyone and everyone that Viserys was a power-hungry twat. He is Aerys' son, for a certainty. He had to die for Aegon to step into the throne. While he definitely had an expiration date, I think he talked himself into death far sooner than Varys and Illyrio planned. I would guess they were also planning for Drogo to die in the fight. The Dothraki would not last a huge amount of time, but certainly would cause enough chaos to make Clegane's band of brigands look tame.