What are the current states of military forces is Westeros?

[Free Northman Reborn]

I would put all of those combined at around 10k.

Just clarify that. Are you saying all of the Lannister losses combined have been about 10k?

[Ingelheim]

Nope. Go read the SSM. It's all about the ships OTHER than the Iron Fleet. He says "a lot more" than a hundred ships. Furthermore, he speaks about major houses in plural, so we know there's Greyjoy + at minimum 2 other major houses.

Of course, but the difference between House Harlaw and the "third" most powerful House is great, since Harlaw (island) is distinguished from the other islands for being both the wealthiest and most densely populated.

And, IIRC, when Asha came to Harlaw to see how many ships she had to maker her claim at the kingsmoot, she sees like 40 ships. I can't actually remember if she talks about specific Houses.

[Ingelheim]

Just clarify that. Are you saying all of the Lannister losses combined have been about 10k?

No, no. The losses you put as 5-7k, IMO, are larger. I would say they lost nearly 10k. Then you add the 10k men died at the Camps and W.Woods and 8k at Oxcross. Lannister losses were about 25k-30k.

[Free Northman Reborn]

No, no. The losses you put as 5-7k, IMO, are larger. I would say they lost nearly 10k. Then you add the 10k men died at the Camps and W.Woods and 8k at Oxcross. Lannister losses were about 25k-30k.

Ok, I understand. Yes, I agree with that.

[Waters Gate]

-What are the general mobilization age's?

I guess typicly, at the start of most wars, only the most able men would be considered for war, whereas whe the situation required it sometimes larger percentages of poppulation would be mobilized/levied for war. Isn't there some information regarding that to be found in the sworn sword?

If i could make a rouch geuss the age group first required to fight would be the group between age's 20 and 40? And if you considered between age 18 to 45 or even 16 to 50 in dire circumstances you would have been able to call a larger levy.

-What is the poppulation replentishment rate?

I guess the age pyramid in Westeros is heavily skewed towards the younger poppulations, contrary to some of our modern western society's. With so much young lads probably runnign around, and the events of the books spanning some years, i guess the numbers get replentished to some extend? Any guestimate to how fast they could get new soldiers from a younger generation?

[Free Northman Reborn]

I don't think the replenishment rate is an issue for anyone except the Ironborn, simply because in the other regions the mobilization rate is a minuscule percentage of their male population. We're talking 20k men out of a 5 million population, in some cases. It is a resource, rather than a population constraint that limits the army sizes, except in the Iron Isles where the population is much lower.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

That doesn't sound right.

If Forley Prester saved 4000 and Daven saved a 1000 more (because, IIRC, the veterans from Forley's host were sent to train Stafford's army, so there is some overlap there) then that would mean that between The Fords and the Blackwater, Tywin lost around 10 000 men (half his army). Isn't that a bit too steep?

Yes, there is some overlapping between Forley Prester and Daven. Tywin lost some men at the Green Fork and on the deathmarch southward, he lost men in all the little skirmishes, he lost men at Stonemill, he lost men at the Blackwater, he lost men at Duskendale, he lost 600 men at Harrenhal, he lost men to disease, starvation and desertion. And Cersei lost 1000 men at Dragonstone.

Nevertheless, not 10,000. More like 5,000-7,000. The problem is, everybody else was pretty much wiped out by Robb. Even the dregs. There isn't anybody left, only the remnants of Tywin's host after two years of war and the little saved by Forley Prester/Daven.

so based on my own estimates (first page) and other peoples here we can assume that

a) the north and lannisters are now a shell of what they once where

b ) dorne is ready for war but isnt an impressively large force anyway

c) stormlands still has some significant strength left to milk even after blackwater but is scattered amongst various lords

d) the iron islands and the vale have a sigificant force left , the tyrells were the strongest but now massively more powerful than anyone left

e) the stormlands + crownlands various lords . golden company, dorne, iron islands and tyrells are all about to get into it

f) LF if he can sit this one out has a hellva strong hand now

The Lannisters yes, the North has still a lot of manpower left. It's leadership that's missing. And they are divided between Bolton and Stnnis.

55k? how does the iron islands support so many?Its been a while since i read but is there any reference? the reach supports 80-100k, and by your count the iron isands field more men than the westerlands?

They are a naval society. That means, they can field 5-10 times as many men (percentage-wise) as the agricultural societies on the mainland, simply because of the difference between providing fish or bread.

Furthermore, they are way more densely settled than the mainland. Again, they don't need the land, because they can fish in the ocean.

Therefore, judging their capabilities from the available landmass is a fallacy.

-What are the general mobilization age's?

Doesn't matter at all. Only a very, very small minority of highly trained men are marched to war.

-What is the poppulation replentishment rate?

Again, it doesn't matter. It's training and equipment that do, not teenagers growing up.

[Lord Reaver]

And, IIRC, when Asha came to Harlaw to see how many ships she had to maker her claim at the kingsmoot, she sees like 40 ships. I can't actually remember if she talks about specific Houses.

Yes, but as her uncle explains, that's not even all the ships he can usually call on. The Stonetrees and Volmarks, some of the Harlaws (not Hotho, who is supporting Vic at the time) and Myres. The Kennings, another house under Harlaw, haven't showed up at all.

[Free Northman Reborn]

[Free Northman Reborn]

Yes, there is some overlapping between Forley Prester and Daven. Tywin lost some men at the Green Fork and on the deathmarch southward, he lost men in all the little skirmishes, he lost men at Stonemill, he lost men at the Blackwater, he lost men at Duskendale, he lost 600 men at Harrenhal, he lost men to disease, starvation and desertion. And Cersei lost 1000 men at Dragonstone.

Nevertheless, not 10,000. More like 5,000-7,000. The problem is, everybody else was pretty much wiped out by Robb. Even the dregs. There isn't anybody left, only the remnants of Tywin's host after two years of war and the little saved by Forley Prester/Daven.

The Lannisters yes, the North has still a lot of manpower left. It's leadership that's missing. And they are divided between Bolton and Stnnis.

They are a naval society. That means, they can field 5-10 times as many men (percentage-wise) as the agricultural societies on the mainland, simply because of the difference between providing fish or bread.

Furthermore, they are way more densely settled than the mainland. Again, they don't need the land, because they can fish in the ocean.

Therefore, judging their capabilities from the available landmass is a fallacy.

OK, well in that case I imagine that Bear Island, which covers about a third the territory of the entire Iron Isles, and which we are expressly told is a fishing-based society, must be able to raise far more men than their teriritory suggests too.

If the Ironborn can raise 30k men, as some claim, then Bear Island is probably sitting in the 5k range at least. And what about Skagos, which covers about twice the territory of all the Iron Isles combined?

Or the people of the Stony shore, which has a thousand mile coastline and is dotted with fishing villages all along its length?

The point is, if the Iron Isles get a free population boost because "they get their food from the sea", then all of these other areas should get it too.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

OK, well in that case I imagine that Bear Island, which covers about a third the territory of the entire Iron Isles, and which we are expressly told is a fishing-based society, must be able to raise far more men than their teriritory suggests too.

If the Ironborn can raise 30k men, as some claim, then Bear Island is probably sitting in the 5k range at least. And what about Skagos, which covers about twice the territory of all the Iron Isles combined?

Or the people of the Stony shore, which has a thousand mile coastline and is dotted with fishing villages all along its length?

The point is, if the Iron Isles get a free population boost because "they get their food from the sea", then all of these other areas should get it too.

You seem to misunderstand me. I was talking about the uselessness of the size of the Iron Islands as an upper limit for the numbers of the Ironborn. The lower limit is established by the number of ships and the known sizes.

So, yes, the theoretical upper limit for the Mormonts, the Skagosi or the population of the Stony Shore would be higher as well - but it's purely theoretical and doesn't matter one whiff.

[Free Northman Reborn]

You seem to misunderstand me. I was talking about the uselessness of the size of the Iron Islands as an upper limit for the numbers of the Ironborn. The lower limit is established by the number of ships and the known sizes.

So, yes, the theoretical upper limit for the Mormonts, the Skagosi or the population of the Stony Shore would be higher as well - but it's purely theoretical and doesn't matter one whiff.

Why? My whole point is that the size of the Iron Isles is a VERY good indication of an upper limit for their numbers.

Also, a source for the "naval society can raise 5-10 times the number of an agricultural society" claim would be cool.

[Lord Reaver]

The point is, if the Iron Isles get a free population boost because "they get their food from the sea", then all of these other areas should get it too.

Difference is, we know the ironborn do large-scale fishing. We don't for all those other places.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Why? My whole point is that the size of the Iron Isles is a VERY good indication of an upper limit for their numbers.

Also, a source for the "naval society can raise 5-10 times the number of an agricultural society" claim would be cool.

And you are wrong there. It would only work if there was another area with the same structure of society and as densely populated as the Iron Islands. But there is none. Comparing them to mainland regions isn't even apples and oranges anymore, more like apples and car tires.

Could take a while, I'd need to do some research since I'm mostly arguing from memory. But I know that you know the rule of thumb of 1% for agrarian societies (rather, 0.5-2% depending on circumstances). It only applies to agrarian societies. Cities and naval societies could field 2-5%. In the extremes, that's the up to ten times I mentioned.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Difference is, we know the ironborn do large-scale fishing. We don't for all those other places.

Actually, the difference is that the Iron Islands are densely settled, while those other places are anything but.

[Lord Reaver]

Also, a source for the "naval society can raise 5-10 times the number of an agricultural society" claim would be cool.

Well, my source is in Norwegian, unfortunately, and accessible via the Norwegian wikipedia page on the leidang (http://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leidang), which references the central findings.

The norwegian army is estimated to between 27 and 33k soldiers. This for a country of an estimated total population is between 300-450k, so that is around 10% mobilization, which is certainly higher than anything I've heard referenced anywhere else.

Reference for population estimates: http://www.ssb.no/a/histstat/

[Lord Reaver]

Actually, the difference is that the Iron Islands are densely settled, while those other places are anything but.

Well, that too. We also have no information on what they live off. Not all waters are rich in fishing, after all.

[shearstone]

With it being Winter wouldn't the north have a much higher deployment rate as they have limited food and in winter can't produce any more. The mountain clans basically confirm the old men go out to die so it stands to reason they'd join any northern army that needs the men.

[Free Northman Reborn]

And you are wrong there. It would only work if there was another area with the same structure of society and as densely populated as the Iron Islands. But there is none. Comparing them to mainland regions isn't even apples and oranges anymore, more like apples and car tires.

Could take a while, I'd need to do some research since I'm mostly arguing from memory. But I know that you know the rule of thumb of 1% for agrarian societies (rather, 0.5-2% depending on circumstances). It only applies to agrarian societies. Cities and naval societies could field 2-5%. In the extremes, that's the up to ten times I mentioned.

OK. I understand the logic. I'm just not aware of a fixed ratio that exists

I mean, a key advance in human civilization was the move from hunter-gathering (which fishing is), to agriculture. It allowed for the production of excess food so that more people could be freed up to do other things.

So I am just not familiar with specific research that indicates that medieval fishing could yield greater food per unit of manpower than agriculture would. But I guess it is entirely possible, depending on how rich the fishing waters are.

Still, I'm not really aware of large scale medieval societies that were supported by seafood as their key resource. Pretty much every large society I can think of needed grain and the like to form the basis of their food intake. Small Pacific island type hunter-gatherer communities excluded.

But then, I'm certainly no expert on the subject. Would be interesting to get some real data on it, if possible.

[Lord Reaver]

Still, I'm not really aware of large scale medieval societies that were supported by seafood as their key resource. Pretty much every large society I can think of needed grain and the like to form the basis of their food intake. Small Pacific island type hunter-gatherer communities excluded.

Scandinavia, the Faroes, the Hebridees. Main source of protein was almost certainly fish. Heck, herring and potatoes were what my grandparents pretty much grew up on. Granted, you needed SOME agriculture to supply this, but again, the total agricultural land of Norway is only 3 % of the total area.