New TWOW chapter - timeline implications [spoilers]

[Easy Waters]

It seems that Cersei's arrest and accusations are common knowledge. Jaime contemplates her fate in his last chapter in aDwD although she didn't write him of her situation and there's no indication that Qyburn added any information.

[Arataniello]

You mean apart from the letter he got at the end of aFfC?

[Lord Varys]

We know that the Mercy chapter was originally supposed to be the first chapter after the five-year-gap. The Alayne chapter feels somewhat similar as it both mentions a lot of old characters as well as introducing many new ones.

Thus my guess is that this chapter is going to be reworked in some fashion before being published - especially where the sweetmilk is concerned.

The whole stuff about 'the queen' cannot remain in 'Mercy' either, I think, as the implications there are - just as in the mentioning of Cersei and the dead dwarfs in the Alayne chapter - are that Cersei is still in control in KL. The guardsman and Raff would be talking about other things in KL not the queen beheading Ser Harys or the queen's price on Tyrion's head.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Wise as always, Lord Varys, the Spider knows all. I think it's a very good point that these are still "draft" chapters, and in the past significant changes have been made before publication (think some detail about "the sword" was removed from the ADWD chapter where Tyrion meets Haldon and Duck?).

It's just interesting that GRRM has published two chapters, both with the same inconsistency. The more outlandish explanation (I think someone mentioned this above?) is that Mercy and Alayne are happening further into the future than we think - after Kevan's death. That is, potential hints as to how the next power play in KL is going to play out (with Cersei back in charge). Still strange that Sansa wouldn't think of her imprisonment, but slightly less strange if this is happening while Cersei is in power again. This would also mean that Oswell is bringing some very different news to LF...

It's unlikely, but not impossible I guess. Both Sansa and Arya could use that time jump for some growing up.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Mercy at least definitely happens after Kevan's death.

Please remember that Harys Swyft was still in KL when Kevan died.

[Lord Varys]

Even if Cersei ends up in control again Raff and the guardsman should mention 'what our queen went through' in the recent past, or something like that. But the feeling you get there is that the Lannisters still rule pretty much supreme. Not to mention that the Epilogue very much suggested that Ser Harys would leave Westeros very soon for Braavos, possibly even before Cersei's trial-by-combat.

It may even be that George has to rewrite the tone of the whole chapter in regards to Ser Harys as he clearly must be aware that his son-in-law - Ser Kevan - has been murdered recently, and he should not exactly be enjoying himself with the Black Pearl nor should there be a general allusion that Ser Harys can hang around in Braavos indefinitely - since it would be clear that King Tommen needs to reach a quick understanding with the Iron Bank. And in regards to the Iron Bank's own contract with Stannis he should also not be really all that welcome in Braavos.

Overall Ser Harys should make a much more broken and tattered approach than he does make in the chapter - being shunned by influential officials, and being not all that welcome in the city. After all, this has happened after Cersei decided that the Iron Bank can wait for their due. Harys should show up as a supplicant making amends for past transgressions in Braavos not as an emissary who can treat with the Iron Bank on (roughly) equal terms.

If you check AFfC/ADwD George spent quite a lot of time preparing for 'Mercy' by giving us Raff's journey from Harrenhal to KL - and then to Braavos. What began as a fun idea for Arya's first chapter after the gap now needed a lot of back story to explain how this thing is even possible. But in the end the chapter needs a thorough revision in regards to everything connected to Ser Harys - possibly even to stuff what the Braavosi think about the emissary from Westeros - to make the new setting (Kevan dead, Tyrells and Lannisters near civil war, Faith as a third major power in the capital, and Aegon at the door) fit with the old one (Cersei still in charge and essentially five years of peace and quiet).

The Alayne chapter could also be reworked in regards to the tone. It could be interesting to have the Vale guys already know what has happened in KL - i.e. at least Cersei and Margaery's arrest - or have Littlefinger at least reveal this to Alayne during the chapter.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

All good points. One thing I'd say about how Harrys is faring in Braavos (and this is relevant to whenever he visits): I don't think they're the kind of purple to openly shun - they have subtlety, the Iron Bank at least. You could interpret him attending the play with the Black Pearl as a huge show of honour, and therefore not really fitting the reality of the anger about the Iron Throne's actions; but that's to ignore that his mission isn't to enjoy the splendours of Braavos and to hang out with the Black Pear (however big an honour that might be), but to secure real, hard financial relief. The fact that he's in the theatre may not mean that he's having a grand old time, but on the contrary that he is failing; the Iron Bank may be politely refusing him and softening the blow with high class treatment.

But this may not even be all that well intentioned - bringing Harrys to see The Bloody Hand may actually be an FU from the Braavosi to him. In terms of wanting to send a message about what the Braavosi really think about the Seven Kingdoms, what better way than to send the ambassador from the "savage" and war-torn realm to an honoured place at the theatre, with the city's most elegant woman? You are rubbing your civilised and sophisticated ways right in his savage face. Also, the subject matter of the play is Westerosi court intrigue, the Queen's savage family, and the like; and that's meant to honour their ambassador? Unlikely; it says: "We the civilised enjoy watching you savages as theatre." But it's subtle enough to just about outwardly appear as an honour.

[Lord Varys]

Oh, he can still go to theater and all. Just the overall tone could subtly change. It isn't a first class theater anyway. But the fact that key holders are there in the audience seems to suggests that the Braavosi elite is not actively shunning him. But then, we know from TWoIaF that not all key holders are still powerful so those at the theater may not be involved all that much in politics. It is entirely likely that only very few people are ware of Tycho Nestoris' mission - yet.

Thus it could be enough to rework the talk of the guardsmen and give Ser Harys' personal entourage - and thus himself - a vibe of personal desperation/tiredness/hopelessness as he clearly cannot be in high spirits after Kevan's death and being forced to deal with the Iron Bank. He wasn't looking forward to that in the Epilogue, and that while he has yet no clue that the Iron Bank might back Stannis. He would essentially be afraid not enjoying himself.

Raff could still have his idea of taking the dwarf - the conversation could change to 'nobody has revoked the promise of the queen to raise the man to lord who delivers the head of the Imp, right?'. Raff is as stupid as to act on the mere possibility that Mace/Margaery would make good on Cersei's promise - and it is not as stupid as one might think as he would have to operate under the assumption that Mace and Margaery want justice for Joffrey's murder, too.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Tycho Nestoris's entire demeanour is what got me thinking about how the Iron Bank might handle Harrys Swift. That whole "courteous in any situation" approach.

Other than courtesy though, how would the IB see Harrys? They want Stannis to win because that's the only outcome that repays all of the Iron Throne's debts, including the new loans Stannis took.

Still, on the off chance that the Lannister best Stannis, the IB will still have its previous debts repaid, provided they haven't overplayed their hand. It's worth their while to not have it known so openly they've backed Stannis (at least not yet).

So their strategy might well be to stall Harrys (that is, entertain him to death) and give him false hope that the IB could be persuaded to help, while also undermining his efforts to get loans from anyone else. If things go according to plan, Stannis wins because the Iron Throne is bankrupt and can't get funding. If Stannis loses, the IB hushes up its dealings and can't be said to have openly undermined the Iron Throne (and was in fact apparently engaged in negotiations to provide more loans).

Just a few fun little potential twists to keep in mind.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

GRRM scrapped the Five-Year-Gap about fifteen years ago. That would be two truly ancient chapters to be released without any work done on them.

Furthermore, the Iron Bank doesn't know of the deal with Stannis - Tycho Nestoris is still at Stannis' camp in the Theon chapter. He got to travel back to the Wall (hint: Jon getting caesared), back to Eastwatch (hint: his transportation is stuck at Hardhome), across the Narrov Sea and only then would the IB learn of the deal.

Even under best circumstances, that's several months of travel.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

But presumably by sending Tycho to Stannis in the first place, the IB already committed to this course of action? Stannis was never going to refuse them, he was desperate for money. It was pretty much a done deal (barring Stannis or Tycho dying or something), so the IB doesn't really need to get a confirmation from Tycho on Stannis to know how to handle Harrys.

[Lord Varys]

Hm. I'd say that once the Iron Bank learns of the contract Stannis has signed they'll deploy Faceless Men to ensure that their pretender wins the war - i.e. send assassins to murder Tommen, Myrcella, Aegon, Euron, Daenerys, and other major obstacles to Stannis' ascension. I don't think the Iron Bank does not fully commit itself to one claimant after they have struck a deal with him. Not to mention that 'conventional warfare' alone would most likely mean a long campaign until Stannis has won even with all the gold the Iron Bank grants him. But if all the rival claimants die suddenly Stannis will quickly rise to the throne and the Iron Bank will get all its investment back with interest - and that's what they want.

BBE,

Tycho would indeed have been granted authority to strike a deal with Stannis. Yes, the Iron Bank has first to learn about his signature but they most certainly would not enter into real negotiations with King Tommen while they were still waiting for Stannis' answer. That's over. They tried to reason with Cersei, she ultimately refused them, and that should be the end of that.

And Tycho should make it back to Braavos - if not, then the Night's Watch is fried, too, as Jon Snow hoped to buy food with the loans he took from the Iron Bank. Nestoris does not need his own ships to return to Braavos. All he needs is one trader at Eastwatch when he arrives there. He can buy any ships he wants. He is a representative of the Iron Bank, after all.

Should Tycho not return the Iron Bank should send another representative to find out whether this was an accident or whether Tycho Nestoris was murdered - if he was then the people responsible should be severely punished. And we should keep in mind that Tycho Nestoris himself may be a Faceless Man.

The Alayne chapter is clearly not in its final stage as he contains a lot of errors. And we know about the Mercy chapter - in fact, George may even have released a preliminary version to keep the aftermath of Kevan's death a secret. It makes no sense to assume that Raff does not know anything about that. The Epilogue had Ser Kevan suggest that Harys hire the Mountain's old men, and the Small Council session and Kevan's talk to Harys stopped at the fact that 'he may have to go to Braavos'. It was not yet confirmed that he had to go. That means Kevan/Pycelle must have been discovered before Harys left for Braavos. And I imagine it will turn out that Mace as Lord Regent/Hand sent him to get the last Lannister crony on the council out of the way after Kevan's death. Or that Harys volunteered to go to get out of the city to be not involved in whatever is going to happen now.

[Blade of Sunlight]

GRRM scrapped the Five-Year-Gap about fifteen years ago. That would be two truly ancient chapters to be released without any work done on them.

Furthermore, the Iron Bank doesn't know of the deal with Stannis - Tycho Nestoris is still at Stannis' camp in the Theon chapter. He got to travel back to the Wall (hint: Jon getting caesared), back to Eastwatch (hint: his transportation is stuck at Hardhome), across the Narrov Sea and only then would the IB learn of the deal.

Even under best circumstances, that's several months of travel.

Exactly, and not only that, the only reason for the IB to deal with Stanis (a clear underdog) is because Cersei refused to pay, now with Kevan in charge (as far as they know) and willing to pay, dealing with the Lanisters would likely present a lesser risk and a smaller investment (as opposed to lending great sums to Stannis). Or they could just play both sides for the time being.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

So they're entertaining and stalling Harrys until they do get the final OK from Tycho, and then the Faceless Men come out, perhaps? That's time period when Mercy takes place. Could be.

[Blade of Sunlight]

Hm. I'd say that once the Iron Bank learns of the contract Stannis has signed they'll deploy Faceless Men to ensure that their pretender wins the war - i.e. send assassins to murder Tommen, Myrcella, Aegon, Euron, Daenerys, and other major obstacles to Stannis' ascension. I don't think the Iron Bank does not fully commit itself to one claimant after they have struck a deal with him. Not to mention that 'conventional warfare' alone would most likely mean a long campaign until Stannis has won even with all the gold the Iron Bank grants him. But if all the rival claimants die suddenly Stannis will quickly rise to the throne and the Iron Bank will get all its investment back with interest - and that's what they want.

Assuming the IB and the FM are not the same entity, and that thay don't have a "buddy discount", then if what was said back in aGoT was accurate it would be much cheaper for the bank to buy Westeros than to have them assassinate that many people, Daenerys alone (and before her dragons) would have been ridiculously expensive.

Ned bowed, and turned on his heel without another word. He could feel Robert's eyes on his back. As he strode from the council chambers, the discussion resumed with scarcely a pause. "On Braavos there is a society called the Faceless Men," Grand Maester Pycelle offered.

"Do you have any idea how costly they are?" Littlefinger complained. "You could hire an army of common sellswords for half the price, and that's for a merchant. I don't dare think what they might ask for a princess."

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Basically.

Though I doubt the Faceless Men.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Assuming the IB and the FM are not the same entity

That is a pretty goshdarn big assumption.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Arya will of course be discovering some more truths about the FM - they are not at all fully explained. Are we actually buying the whole "Many Faced God" thing is real? Like a real god they serve?

If not, then we assume that there must be some group of people directing them, setting the prices and the rules of play. All that "inner sanctum" stuff - that's all still completely vague.

True, there is a number of plausible things that could happen going forward. But the FM have been show to have real power and real magic. Finding out their dirty inner workings and seeing how essentially commercial they are would be just the antidote for the awe that they've thus far inspired.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Hey, whether the Many Faced God is real or not, his followers are a very real religion. No need for anybody to direct them, the faithful are fully capable of doing that themselves.

[Lord Varys]

TWoIaF made it very, very likely (I'd even say effectively confirmed) that the Faceless Men and the Iron Bank are heavily interconnected. Yandel explicitly mentions rumors that the Iron Bank uses assassins to deal with unwilling debtors. Although those rumors supposedly were never proven. The quick downfall of the Rogares of Lys - Larra Rogare's father and uncle (the Prince Consort of Dorne) die within a day of each other - is another hint that the Iron Bank controls the Faceless Men or the Faceless Men the Iron Bank (or that they help each other) as the Rogare bank was more powerful than the Iron Bank at that particular time in history. Which is a big hint that the Rogares were strong rivals of the people owning/controlling the Iron Bank.

The Doom of Valyria is another big hint. The Iron Bank sent representatives to Valyria to treat with the Lords Freeholder over the stolen ships etc. - which means that Faceless Men infiltrated Valyria most likely disguised as Iron Bank officials. Destroying Valyria would have been a major goal for all the Braavosi power players not just the Faceless Men - in fact, I think if they did this for money nobody could have been able to pay them. Which means there were in the game not for money but because they wanted to cause the Doom.

If the Faceless Men are powerful shareholders of the Iron Bank - or if the Iron Bank can boss around the Faceless Men - then the normal rules would not apply for taking out Stannis' rivals (i.e the Iron Bank would not have to pay them). In fact, Jaqen's presence at the Citadel strongly suggests that the Faceless Men are already taking steps to take out Daenerys and her dragons - they first need to acquire knowledge how to murder dragons efficiently. And my guess has always been that Arya's first real job will be to murder Daenerys and/or her dragons.