Why was Viserys set as new heir?

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Yeah, considering how doran and Oberyn were angry with Rhaegar, it is not hard to believe Lewyn had the same opinion.

If Lewyn knew what happened later, I bet he would rather use his 10000 spears to rescue Elia and children and run back to Dorne.

The worst scenario would be Dorne declares independence. Still better than the deaths of Elia, children, himself and the failure of 10000 spears. by the way, how shamelss and jerkish Rhaegar was to use Dornishmen to fight for him and make them die for the woman he loved?

This is like daemon led rhaenyra's army to fight and die in order to protect his paramour Nettles.

Well, this isn't really about Rhaegar, it is about Aerys' perception of everything. If there were tensions not only between Aerys and the Martells, but also between Rhaegar and his in-laws, then it makes some sense that Aerys would fear that the Martells might betray his son. As far as we know the Dornishmen fought valiantly besides Rhaegar's other troops at the Trident, so this was apparently not exactly a justified fear of Aerys' part. But then, we still don't know many details about the Trident, and whether there were tensions there. If Rhaegar and Lewyn no longer got along all that well then this certainly could have been a factor why the battle turned against them.

But since Lewyn actually was killed during the battle fighting against Lyn Corbray one assumes that the Dornishmen did their duty.

And one should keep in mind, of course, that whatever Rhaegar did to Elia's honor was certainly not as bad as Aerys actually threatening the very lives of Elia and his own grandchildren to force Doran and Lewyn to fight for him. Perhaps Rhaegar and Lewyn reached some sort of understanding? After all, we don't know yet how what Rhaegar thought Elia's new place should be in light of the whole Lyanna situation. If Rhaegar assured Lewyn and Doran that Elia would remain his wife and that Aegon would remain his heir and rule as king after him they might have calmed down somewhat. It is hard to say, really. Doran/Lewyn both must have been aware that regardless what Rhaegar said Lyanna's sons would eventually become a threat to Elia's son.

[purple-eyes]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, this isn't really about Rhaegar, it is about Aerys' perception of everything. If there were tensions not only between Aerys and the Martells, but also between Rhaegar and his in-laws, then it makes some sense that Aerys would fear that the Martells might betray his son. As far as we know the Dornishmen fought valiantly besides Rhaegar's other troops at the Trident, so this was apparently not exactly a justified fear of Aerys' part. But then, we still don't know many details about the Trident, and whether there were tensions there. If Rhaegar and Lewyn no longer got along all that well then this certainly could have been a factor why the battle turned against them.

But since Lewyn actually was killed during the battle fighting against Lyn Corbray one assumes that the Dornishmen did their duty.

And one should keep in mind, of course, that whatever Rhaegar did to Elia's honor was certainly not as bad as Aerys actually threatening the very lives of Elia and his own grandchildren to force Doran and Lewyn to fight for him. Perhaps Rhaegar and Lewyn reached some sort of understanding? After all, we don't know yet how what Rhaegar thought Elia's new place should be in light of the whole Lyanna situation. If Rhaegar assured Lewyn and Doran that Elia would remain his wife and that Aegon would remain his heir and rule as king after him they might have calmed down somewhat. It is hard to say, really. Doran/Lewyn both must have been aware that regardless what Rhaegar said Lyanna's sons would eventually become a threat to Elia's son.

I am completely on the board that Rhaegar silently approved that Aerys used his wife and children to secure Dorne's support. 

So he did not bother to try to release them to DS or Dorne.

He needed their support and whatever he said about Lyanna cannot appease and secure Dorne at all. He can promise a lot of things about Elia and Aegon, but nobody will believe it truly. Because his action spoke louder than his words.

He can only use Elia and children as hostage, although he may not need to speak it out, thanks to Aerys.

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

I am completely on the board that Rhaegar silently approved that Aerys used his wife and children to secure Dorne's support. 

So he did not bother to try to release them to DS or Dorne.

He needed their support and whatever he said about Lyanna cannot appease and secure Dorne at all. He can promise a lot of things about Elia and Aegon, but nobody will believe it truly. Because his action spoke louder than his words.

He can only use Elia and children as hostage, although he may not need to speak it out, thanks to Aerys.

Well, that's not clear. We don't know anything about Rhaegar threatening Elia and her children, and one assumes that Rhaegar had no intention of actually threatening the lives of his own wife and sons while Lyanna hadn't given him children of her own. Not to mention that there is little reason to assume that Rhaegar wanted to replace anyone's children - after all, we have no idea whether his view on the promised prince ever changed.

And the fact that Rhaegar didn't send Elia and the children to Dragonstone or Dorne or any other safe place after his return to court doesn't prove anything either, really. We still don't know whether Rhaegar had the authority to do such a thing. If Aerys also used Elia and the children as hostages against Rhaegar - and made that clear to him in private conversation - then Rhaegar simply may not have risked to try to get them out of Maegor's Holdfast.

One assumes that the Dornishmen would actually have betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident if the situation with Rhaegar was as tense as you suggest. But there is no evidence for such a thing. If the rebels won the battle the reports would be confusing and it would be difficult to prove that the Martells betrayed Rhaegar.

[purple-eyes]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, that's not clear. We don't know anything about Rhaegar threatening Elia and her children, and one assumes that Rhaegar had no intention of actually threatening the lives of his own wife and sons while Lyanna hadn't given him children of her own. Not to mention that there is little reason to assume that Rhaegar wanted to replace anyone's children - after all, we have no idea whether his view on the promised prince ever changed.

And the fact that Rhaegar didn't send Elia and the children to Dragonstone or Dorne or any other safe place after his return to court doesn't prove anything either, really. We still don't know whether Rhaegar had the authority to do such a thing. If Aerys also used Elia and the children as hostages against Rhaegar - and made that clear to him in private conversation - then Rhaegar simply may not have risked to try to get them out of Maegor's Holdfast.

One assumes that the Dornishmen would actually have betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident if the situation with Rhaegar was as tense as you suggest. But there is no evidence for such a thing. If the rebels won the battle the reports would be confusing and it would be difficult to prove that the Martells betrayed Rhaegar.

We have an almost vacuum of information after Rhaegar returned to KL about his action towards his father and his family. Only thing we know is that Rhaegar persuaded Aerys to ask Tywin and Aerys threatened Dornishmen by using Elia and children as hostage. So of course everything will be just speculation.

But based on the situation they had, obviously Rhaegar had some ability to change his father's mind. but we did not hear anything that Rhaegar tried to protect his family. so I assume Rhaegar did not do anything. He just silently let his father do whatever he wants over Elia and children.