Why isn't SweetRobin dead already?

[Walda]

Maester Coleman doesn't really know that much of medicine. He knows less than Grand Maester Pycelle, no match for Mirri Maz Duur, Qyburn, or even Maester Luwin.

I think it is partly because of the parochial spin of the Citidel's teachings, their emphasis on scholarship, their qualms about experiment, their desire to distinguish themselves from the orders of pyromancy, religion, magic, alchemy and trickery.

Colemon's understanding of medicine comes from the soundest authorities of the Citidel, and such experience as he encountered in John Arryn's household.

That isn't extensive knowledge when we compare him with other healers. Mirri has a much broader clientele and has learnt the medical knowledge of at least half a dozen cultures other than her own. Qyburn, inquisitive beyond the point of being unethical, has his chain removed but not the knowledge the Citidel afforded him, which by his account was equal to that of the Archmaester of Healing. He has since developed his skills in vivisection and necromancy in a field hospital unrestrained by his former peers' scuples and prejudice. 

Marwyn remains an Archmaester, in spite of paying serious attention to the outlandish cures and medical practices of other cultures and not excluding religious and magical cures. His peers in History, Stargazing and (probably) Accounting openly discredit his knowledge but tolerate him, probably because his subject is the higher mysteries and not medicine after all, and possibly also because he has spent most of his term on sabbatical, his books are popular even if they do encroach on their own disciplines in unorthodox ways, and he does not giving formal lectures. Perhaps also because the Citidel don't know or care what he teaches in Asshai.

The medical teachings of the Citidel have blind spots. Like infection control. Mirri and Qyburn understand how necrotic tissue works. While Aemon and Ballabar seems to have acquired a clue from experience, Pycelle shows us that the Citidel does not teach that it is critical or fundamental.

Mirri Maz Duur has a lot more confidence than Colemon when it comes to what drugs do what and which to use when. For example, when Dany is recovering from the birth of Rhaego, 

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“Sleep and grow strong again, Khaleesi. Come back to us.” And then Mirri Maz Duur was there, the maegi, tipping a cup against her lips. She tasted sour milk, and something else, something thick and bitter. Warm liquid ran down her chin. Somehow she swallowed. The tent grew dimmer, and sleep took her again. This time she did not dream.

(AGoT Ch68 Daenerys IX)

Dany woke up thirsty, drank some water, and some more water, and then Mirri gave her some sweet wine. She sleeps some more, not as soundly as before, she has some more water and notices her fever has broken. Her strength has returned and her appetite, too.

The waif has a similar confidence and competence. She uses a similar potion to blind Arya

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When the milk came, Arya drank it down. It smelled a little burnt and had a bitter aftertaste. “Go to bed now, child,” the kindly man said. “On the morrow you must serve.”

That night she dreamed she was a wolf again, but it was different from the other dreams. In this dream she had no pack. She prowled alone, bounding over rooftops and padding silently beside the banks of a canal, stalking shadows through the fog.

When she woke the next morning, she was blind.

(AFfC Ch34 Cat of the Canals)

I am not sure if the waif knew or intended Arya to warg into a cat - the Kindly Man hints at that when he says that she has been a cat, but he might only have been referring to her life with Brusco and his daughters. There is no doubt the waif does know how to keep her blind, and how to reverse the blindness

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That evening Umma served salt-crusted crabs for supper. When her cup was presented to her, the blind girl wrinkled her nose and drank it down in three long gulps. Then she gasped and dropped the cup. Her tongue was on fire, and when she gulped a cup of wine the flames spread down her throat and up her nose.

“Wine will not help, and water will just fan the flames,” the waif told her. “Eat this.” A heel of bread was pressed into her hand. The girl stuffed it in her mouth, chewed, swallowed. It helped. A second chunk helped more.

And come the morning, when the night wolf left her and she opened her eyes, she saw a tallow candle burning where no candle had been the night before,

(AFfC Ch45 The Blind Girl)

Probably because the waif routinely blinds people and returns thier sight. When Arya first arrived at the House of Black and White she notes

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the youngest acolyte was blind, he had charge of the candles.

(AFfC Ch22 Arya II)

The blinding/warging potion tastes like the drink Colemon gave SweetRobin

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Each night at supper the waif brought her a cup of milk and told her to drink it down. The drink had a queer, bitter taste that the blind girl soon learned to loathe. Even the faint smell that warned her what it was before it touched her tongue soon made her feel like retching, but she drained the cup all the same.

(AFfC Ch45 The Blind Girl ) But I doubt Maester Colemon was trying to open SweetRobin's inner eye or blind him.

The draught Dany was given by Mirri after Rhaego's birth seems to have included milk of the poppy. Maester Luwin gives Bran milk of the poppy in a green jar, in the hope of giving him dreamless sleep. Bran promptly wargs into Summer

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Maester Luwin was carrying a green jar, and this time Osha and Hayhead came with him. “I’ve made you a sleeping draught, Bran.”    ...
“This will give you dreamless sleep,” Maester Luwin said as he pulled the stopper from the jar. “Sweet, dreamless sleep.”
“It will?” Bran said, wanting to believe.
“Yes. Drink.”
Bran drank. The potion was thick and chalky, but there was honey in it, so it went down easy.
“Come the morn, you’ll feel better.” Luwin gave Bran a smile and a pat as he took his leave.
Osha lingered behind. “Is it the wolf dreams again?”
Bran nodded.
“You should not fight so hard, boy. I see you talking to the heart tree. Might be the gods are trying to talk back.”
“The gods?” he murmured, drowsy already. Osha’s face grew blurry and grey. Sweet, dreamless sleep, Bran thought.
Yet when the darkness closed over him, he found himself in the godswood, moving silently beneath green-grey sentinels and gnarled oaks as old as time. I am walking, he thought, exulting.

(ACoK Ch4 Bran I)

Maester Aemon makes his milk of the poppy in a green jar, too

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Clydas returned with a green flask and a rounded stone cup. Maester Aemon poured it full. “Drink this.”

Jon had bitten his lip in his struggles. He could taste blood mingled with the thick, chalky potion. It was all he could do not to retch it back up.

Clydas brought a basin of warm water, and Maester Aemon washed the pus and blood from his wound. Gentle as he was, even the lightest touch made Jon want to scream.

(ASoS Ch48 Jon VI)

Maester Aemon uses it as an anaesthetic. Jon does not go to sleep or warg into his wolf, but like Dany, it makes him thirsty. He is given it before his fever starts, and unlike her he is given it a few times, no sweetwine. He doesn't seem to warg into any beast - or maybe he wargs quickly through direwolf, eagle, crow, even weirwood. It is hard to tell if this is just part of his jumbled fever dream that ends up at the pool in the Godswood at Winterfell with Ygritte.

The paste that the Children of the Forest prepare to open Bran's third eye also has a loathsome bitter taste, like Arya's blinding milk.

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It had a bitter taste, though not so bitter as acorn paste. The first spoonful was the hardest to get down. He almost retched it right back up. The second tasted better. The third was almost sweet. The rest he spooned up eagerly. Why had he thought that it was bitter? It tasted of honey, of new-fallen snow, of pepper and cinnamon and the last kiss his mother ever gave him.

(ADwD Ch34 Bran III)

I suspect the waif could make Jojen paste if she mixed the blinding potion with the amortentia they put in the candles at the House of Black and White.

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When you smell our candles burning, what does it make you think of, my child?”

Winterfell, she might have said. I smell snow and smoke and pine needles. I smell the stables. I smell Hodor laughing, and Jon and Robb battling in the yard, and Sansa singing about some stupid lady fair. I smell the crypts where the stone kings sit, I smell hot bread baking, I smell the godswood. I smell my wolf, I smell her fur, almost as if she were still beside me.

(AFfC Ch22 Arya II)

There seems to be some amortina in the shade of the evening that Dany drank at the House of the Undying, too

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The first sip tasted like ink and spoiled meat, foul, but when she swallowed it seemed to come to life within her. She could feel tendrils spreading through her chest, like fingers of fire coiling around her heart, and on her tongue was a taste like honey and anise and cream, like mother’s milk and Drogo’s seed, like red meat and hot blood and molten gold.

(AGoT Ch48 Daenerys IV)

And apparently, the smell of her brother dying is one of Dany's favourite things.

There are lots of places where candles with amortina or some other kind of mood-altering substance in them could be influencing perceptions. 

-Maggi the Frog's burnt blood scented candle burning when she gave her prophecy, iCrc

- the 'incense' scented devotional candles in septs.eg. the ones that were burning at Lancel's sept at Darry, and around Joffrey's bier at the Sept of Baelor.

-the scented candles that Shae is forever lighting when Tyrion is around, from the jasmine scented one in Varys' cell, to the one he first examined her by (which was actually lit by Bronn, but still, kisses like cloves and honey, hmmm). The scented candle burning on Sansa's wedding night didn't work so well, though.

- Perhaps the candles only affect Tyrion, not Sansa. The scented beeswax candles Lord Waxley had given Lady Lysa when he sought to win her hand don't seem to have an effect beyond 'smelling of nutmeg and other costly spices', though.

-the candles in Renly's green tent might not stir passions, but they are mentioned so often they must be a clue to something 

-the candle Ramsey holds when he tells Theon Asha has arrived could provoke dread, and prophetic/foreshadowing dreams.

- the "gold for iron" candle when Pate met the alchemist at the Quill and the Tankard

- the candles in Arianne and Arys' loveshack

- the candle when Cersei and Taena were interrupted by Falyse.(Worked for Taena,at least)

- the light of the candles at Ramseys wedding to FArya reveal the animal natures of the guests to Theon.

Sorry, only just noticed the candles, got off the point. Back to SweetRobin.

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“Maester Colemon put something vile in my milk last night, I could taste it. I told him I wanted sweetmilk, but he wouldn’t bring me any.

(AFfC Ch41 Alayne II) 

Maester Colemon has not tried this medicine before, and he is not sure what effect it will have on his patient.

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He hesitated. “Did you observe any shaking while you were with him?”
“His fingers trembled a little bit when I held his hand, that’s all. He says you put something vile in his milk.”
“Vile?” Colemon blinked at her, and the apple in his throat moved up and down. “I merely … is he bleeding from the nose?”
“No.”
“Good. That is good.”

(AFfC Ch41 Alayne II) 

When he woke, SweetRobin had a temper, a headache, was sniffling, red-eyed and glare sensitive.

He doesn't say he was warging into anything, or having prophetic dreams. But how would we know of the experiences of Jon, Dany, Arya, and Bran outside of their first person point of view?

There are wildlings that recognise Jon as a warg because of the way Ghost stalks him and because he "has a wolfish cast to him now that I look close". Jojen recognises Bran as a warg because he had a green dream about a winged wolf in chains. He claims he is not a warg himself, but Jojen also has shivering fits. If it were not for Jojen, Bran would just seem to be sleeping or shaking when he was warging. 

Varamyr could warg multiple beasts while he was awake. His parents only found out he could warg when they killed Loptail. His father's hands were shaking then, but he only fell into a flailing fit when his eagle died. Arya doesn't fall into a fit when she uses the eyes of the cat to hit the Kindly Man.

So it is possible to warg without your body showing symptoms, too. As far as I can tell, the three key external symptoms of warging are an animal hanging around, sleeping, and fits.Sansa has observed the last two in SweetRobin. Downside is, everybody sleeps sometimes, animals have to live somewhere, and Catlyn shows it is possible to have a fit without warging (or at least, without being aware of what happens when you fit).

Looking for other signs, SweetRobin is a sickly, runty child, as Lump was. The only animal I have seen potentially shadowing SweetRobin is the falcon Sansa observes from her balcony on the Maidens Tower.

Perhaps a mule bit SweetRobin for attempting to warg him. The only animals at the Eyrie that I can recall are the winch oxen and Marillion's falcon. I am guessing there are other falconry birds, because Marillion's was Jon Arryn's favourite bird. But they don't keep chickens for fresh eggs (in spite of their plentiful grain store - which will be inaccessible until after the thaw) also in spite of SweetRobin's fondness for the song about the chicken that dressed up as a fox.

I presume Maester Colemon had intended the vile milk to give the child a sound sleep before the descent (much like Luwin was attempting to give Bran dreamless sleep). SweetRobin's fingers were trembling before he got out of bed that morning. When he crossed the stone saddle before Snow, he had a turn. So Colemon had no more success than Luwin with his green jar.

 Maester Colemon had no objection to sedating him half the hours of the day.

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“This descent … my lady, it might be safest if I mixed his lordship some milk of the poppy.

(AFfC Ch41 Alayne II) As soon as SweetRobin awoke from the experimental vile milk, Colemon came to his room to sedate him again. He was rewarded with the contents of SweetRobin's chamber pot. This seems a bit extra to me.

Opiates are constipating and I do wonder that SweetRobin was strong enough to throw a chamber pot across the room, but these irrelevancies aside, it makes me suspect Maester Colemon was attempting to detox SweetRobin of Sweetsleep with deep sleep therapy, and without really knowing what he is doing, or seeing any clear signs of success. He isn't interested in explaining the vile milk to Alayne.

He did object to giving sweetsleep

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“Give his lordship a cup of sweetmilk,” she told the maester. “That will stop him from shaking on the journey down.”

“He had a cup not three days past,” Colemon objected.

“And wanted another last night, which you refused him.”

“It was too soon. My lady, you do not understand. As I’ve told the Lord Protector, a pinch of sweetsleep will prevent the shaking, but it does not leave the flesh, and in time …”

“Time will not matter if his lordship has a shaking fit and falls off the mountain. If my father were here, I know he would tell you to keep Lord Robert calm at all costs.”

“I try, my lady, yet his fits grow ever more violent, and his blood is so thin I dare not leech him any more. Sweetsleep … you are certain he was not bleeding from the nose?”

(AFfC Ch41 Alayne II) 

The waif informs Arya that Sweetsleep is 'the gentlest of poisons'

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“A few grains will slow a pounding heart and stop a hand from shaking, and make a man feel calm and strong. A pinch will grant a night of deep and dreamless sleep. Three pinches will produce that sleep that does not end."

(AFfC Ch34 Cat of the Canals)

Maester Aemon keeps Sweetsleep to 'give the gift of painless death', as far as Samwell Tarly can tell, when they don't have it and Bannen is dying slowly and painfully. (ASoS Ch33 Samwell II)

Varys used it as knock-out drops

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Tyrion almost stumbled on the turnkey, sprawled across the cold stone floor. He prodded him with a toe. “Is he dead?”

“Asleep. The other three as well. The eunuch dosed their wine with sweetsleep, but not enough to kill them. Or so he swears.

(ASoS Ch77 Tyrion XI) But Longwaters followed an order to have them all killed, which was carried out before they woke, so we can't judge the spider's skill.

It seems a bit reckless, to put the stuff in a common jug hoping that each man takes just enough, and none too much, that no man has taken much Sweetsleep before, and no-one else imbibes it. Cressen made that mistake with the Strangler, which was not as miscible with wine as he had presumed, or as quick to dissolve in it. Melissandre capitalised on her better knowledge of the poison, and no doubt her Ruby-fortified constitution, leaving him only the dangerous dregs.

Pycelle soothed the violence of Ser Gyle's coughing with Sweetsleep (AFfC Ch36 Cersei VIII), but had nothing to slow the progress of his consumption, and his patient died. 

As a palatable poison that gives death in three pinches, and can kill with small cumulative doses, Swetsleep is noticeably underutilized.

Dreamwine in Westeros seems to be milk of the poppy disolved in alcohol, a sedative and pain reliever that is not as strong as milk of the poppy. Tyrion at least noted the Dreamwine he took

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was sweetened with honey, with just enough of the poppy to make his wounds bearable for a time.

(ASoS Ch4 Tyrion I)

After Tyrion takes it he is dizzy, and his legs tremble as he descends the stairs, but it makes the pain bearable without completely knocking him out. 

I wonder now if SweetRobin was tossing the pot for the same reason Tyrion was strangling Ballabar. At least Ballabar had a clear purpose for sedating his patient.

When Jaime takes dreamwine on leaving Harrenhal, he has a frightening prophetic dream and wakes shivering, with the taste of bile in his mouth. His head pounds and he feels sick in his stomach. He has tears in his eyes and is running a fever. But he has enough of his wits about him to persuade Steelshanks to return to Harrenhal, and enough strength to drive his horse back to Harrenhal and vault into the bear pit.

Jon Snow does not tremble after his half-cup of Dreamwine. He hobbles up the Kingstower,  has an appetite for buttered buns with cheese and onions, and his hands draw arrows fast and true. He also has a chew of willow bark (asprin) and a battle to take his mind off his throbbing thigh.

Like Lollys,  a full cup of Dreamwine knocks Jon out for the night. Maester Colemon gives SweetRobin half a cup when he has a seizure after attacking Sansa's snow castle. He claimed the Dreamwine did not send him to sleep, the night before the Lords Declarant came up the mountain. Sansa doesn't believe this, however, and the morning they leave the Eyrie she offers him a cup of Dreamwine for his headache, warning "Only a little one, though. Mya Stone is waiting down at Sky, and she’ll be hurt if you go to sleep on her." (AFfC Ch41 Alayne II)

I don't know if there are standard dosages for Dreamwine. Maester Aemon and Maester Colemon probably follow the same Citidel recipe, but the amount of opium in any particular poppy varys according to its variety and growing conditions, its harvest and processing, the conditions and length of its storage. Likewise the amount of alcohol in the wine depends on the sweetness of the grapes, vintage and variety. We know Qartheen Dreamwine is flavoured with 'strange spices', so it could be completely different from the Westerosi stuff. Still, it seems like a dose that would knock Jon Snow out like a light is just enough to put little SweetRobin into a tolerably good mood. 

Maester Colemon explains his treatment to SweetRobin

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“My lord, your blood needs thinning,” said Maester Colemon. “It is the bad blood that makes you angry, and the rage that brings on the shaking.”

(ASoS Ch 80 Sansa VIII)

And to the Lord Protector

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I bleed the child as often as I dare, and mix him dreamwine and milk of the poppy to help him sleep, but …”

“He sleeps twelve hours a day,” Petyr said. “I require him awake from time to time.”

...

“Lady Lysa would give his lordship her breast whenever he grew overwrought. Archmaester Ebrose claims that mother’s milk has many heathful properties.”

(AFfC Ch 23 Alayne I)

Young Maester Pylos on Dragonstone shows us how it is supposed to be done

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He was sick when they first brought him here. The cough that had plagued him since the battle grew worse, and a fever took hold of him as well. His lips broke with blood blisters, and the warmth of the cell did not stop his shivering. I will not linger long, he remembered thinking. I will die soon, here in the dark.

Davos soon found that he was wrong about that, as about so much else. Dimly he remembered gentle hands and a firm voice, and young Maester Pylos looking down on him. He was given hot garlic broth to drink, and milk of the poppy to take away his aches and shivers. The poppy made him sleep and while he slept they leeched him to drain off the bad blood. Or so he surmised, by the leech marks on his arms when he woke. Before very long the coughing stopped, the blisters vanished, and his broth had chunks of whitefish in it, and carrots and onions as well. And one day he realized that he felt stronger than he had since Black Betha shattered beneath him and flung him in the river.

(ASoS Ch25 Davos III)

So, fever, coughing, bloodblistered lips: leeches, milk of the poppy, garlic broth.

Colemon must be aware SweetRobin has no fever, no cough for all his snivelling, and no bloodblisters. Colemon claims

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His lordship’s spells have grown worse since Lady Lysa’s death. More frequent and more violent.

(AFfC Ch23 Alayne I) but

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 It is not so bad a spell as the last one, Alayne thought, trying to be hopeful.

(AFfC Ch23 Alayne I)

Sansa is not Mirri Maz Duur, still, Catelyn and Tyrion both observe SweetRobin trembling on the verge of a fit, when he learns Catelyn's purpose in his mother's arms, and when he is denyed the pleasure of watching the little man fly. The fit when Sansa slayed his giant seems quite as violent as the one the morning of the day SweetRobin hosts the Lords Declarant and the one he has before Snow on his descent.

I don't know if SweetRobin's fits are more frequent - they seem to have been frequent enough when his mother lived. If we are told of every major fit he has had, we can see his fits are becoming less frequent. I'm not sure what Maester Colemon means by violent, either SweetRobin doesn't seem to have any soreness or bruises as a consequence of falling, fits and spasms. He kicked Sansa and broke a porridge bowl in the throes of his second to last fit.  It might simply be a sign that he is getting some strength back now he isn't being leeched so frequently.

Maester Coleman must be aware that leeching didn't work for his condition.

According to Roose Bolton

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Frequent leechings are the secret of a long life. A man must purge himself of bad blood.

(ASoS Ch47 Arya IX)

Bolton also believes he thinks better with all the passion leeched out of him. He never met Chett.

Pylos refused to leech the Knight of Flowers because he had lost so much blood already.

Qyburn uses leeches to heal Jaime's puffy black eye. It took down some but not all of the swelling.

And of course, Melisandre leeched Edric Storm when the boy fell into a convenient fever. He recovered, and three kings died.

Lysa has the puffy pasty face, watery eyes, petulant mouth, hasty temper. And Catelyn had that turn just before the library at Winterfell burned. The trembling, crying, falling to the ground, irrationality are the same as SweetRobin. Only hers was a one-off, all she really needed was to wrestle off a man with a dagger,  see his throat ripped out, and eat breakfast. Bit of salve on the cuts and she was all right.

It seems to me that both Lysa and SweetRobin might have been exposed to some environmental factor over the last five years that accounts for flabby pasty skin, watery eyes, uncertain temper, and petulance. Catelyn did not remember her looking so frumpy and tired when they met five years before, when SweetRobin was still a babe.

Maester Colemon's leechings has been singularily unsuccessful at resolving red eyes and puffiness. Worse, they might actually cause it. IRL blood loss makes people pale, tired, irritable, prone to colds and twiches.

Maester Pycelle gives his opinion on Maester Colemon's medical ability. Not that Pycelle is especially qualified to give opinions on anything, really. His medical specialty seems to be keeping people in a state where their condition neither improves or gets worse, until they die. Then, he has more than one version of Jon Arryn's last disease. So we need to keep the version he told Tyrion in mind when we consider what he told Eddard, and remember Eddard was not holding a knife to his throat.

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Maester Colemon thought it was a chill on the stomach.

(AGoT Ch25 Eddard IV)

 If humoural medicine in Westeros works the same as humoural medicine in fourteenth century England, Pycelle does not believe it was a chill on the stomach.

Pycelle notes that Jon Arryn "looked melancholy and tired". Melancholy is a constitutional disposition caused by an excess of black bile. [Physicians had noticed that blood, when let and let stand, divided into four layers. Nowadays we would say red blood cells, white blood cells, plasma, and platelets. Then they were known as blood, phlegm, yellow bile and black bile. They believed the proportions of each depended on an individuals constitution, and each humour came in two types, good and bad. Bad humours could be something one was born with, or could be a byproduct of digestion, or induced by distempers. Distempers were the four environmental factors that put the humours out of balance - heat, cold, wet, and dry. Winds also influenced humours, depending on whether they blew from the north, south, east, or west. A physician could determine the balance or imbalance of a patient's humours by the colour of his complexion (red, white, yellow, black) and by his personality and changes in mood (sanguine (ie.courageous, hopeful, amorous, plenty of good blood); choleric (easily angered, bad tempered, preponderance of yellow bile), melancholic (despondent, sleepless, irritable, depressed, excess of black bile), phlegmatic (calm, unemotional,sluggish, apathetic, excess of phlegm). The main symptoms of illness were fever - excess of blood, congestion - excess of phlegm, chill - excess of black bile, headaches - excess of yellow bile. The main cure was letting blood - worked for everything because it removed the bad humours and allowed the body to rebalance. Also, it is a lot harder to remove bile from a patient without killing her.]

So, by saying he noticed Jon Arryn was becoming melancholic, Pycelle was saying he saw Jon Arryn was building up black bile, which meant he was particularily liable to hot, wet distempers and should therefore be taking cooling, drying things like iced wine (wine and roast meat were considered 'drying' foods). He is also saying that Jon's illness was probably a constitutional imbalance, a chronic condition that built up over time. 

Colemon diagnosed an acute condition, a distemper caused by taking cooling drying foods into a stomach that was heathily hot and wet, turning it suddenly cold and too wet. It required urgent and plentiful application of heating and drying potions to the stomach to restore the balance.

 

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"Maester Colemon is like a son to me, and I yield to none in my esteem for his abilities, but he is young, and the young ofttimes do not comprehend the frailty of an older body. He was purging Lord Arryn with wasting potions and pepper juice, and I feared he might kill him.”

(AGoT Ch25 Eddard IV)

Later Pycelle told Tyrion the problem was that Maester Colemon's treatment was working,

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Colemon was purging, so I sent him away. The queen needed Lord Arryn dead, she did not say so, could not, Varys was listening, always listening, but when I looked at her I knew. It was not me who gave him the poison, though.

(ACoK Ch25 Tyrion IV)

Pycelle reveals a lot to Eddard when we keep this later confession in mind. The first thing I notice is "wine no longer agrees with my digestion", and how his preference is for sweetened milk and sweet fruit. He appears sleepy, too. Could Pycelle be taking sweetsleep? Or does he suppose that sweet milk will protect his old stomach against Coleman's harsh pepper potions, should he suddenly need to purge? Or do Tears of Lys curdle iced milk and remain undetectable in iced wine?

It seems to me that Pycelle feared that whoever had poisoned Jon Arryn would poison him too. That whatever Jon Arryn knew, he knew too (or so he thought). Perhaps because he had read Malleon, or just because he had it. Although he did not hesitate to give the book to Eddard.

He encourages Eddard to distrust Varys. Perhaps to take his focus off the Lannisters. Perhaps because he and Varys were the two councillors who remained with King Arys after Barristan left for the Trident with Rhaegar, so maybe Varys and Pycelle know something that Jaime doesn't, and Pycelle would like control of the narrative before Eddard Stark started bringing the subject up.

Pycelle's reminiscences of that summer in Oldtown, his own phlegmatic disposition, and his comments on the hot moist heat of the day, make me think that it used to be his custom to take iced wine on hot days until very recently, as is still the fashion in Oldtown, according to Satin (ASoS Ch55 Jon VII). The little sigh Pycelle emits as he receives his phlegm-producing milk might be a sign he is missing his iced wine. Also a sign that he doesn't want Eddard poisoned - at least, not immediately after drinking iced wine with him.

 It seems too that Pycelle was aware that this was the last year of summer, and was anticipating a short Autumn and a brutal winter. When he argued about the gods of old, perhaps he had touched on the Great Sleeping Sickness that had struck down the High Septon, the king, his sons, his hand, and most of the silent sisters that spring? In his childhood Pycelle had seen men wake hale yet sicken and die of the Sleeping Sickness. It might have been his motivation for joining the Citidel. It might be why Jon Arryn's death looked natural enough for him, although the time of the Sleeping Sickness would have been a good time for poisoners to go about their business undetected as well.

Maekar was not the king anyone expected, and the tourney of Ashford and other events that led up to the succession of Aegon the Fortunate must have added to mortal speculations on the intentions of the gods, and the means and degree of their interventions.

Pycelle mentions the perfume of nightshade and moonbloom. Nightshade might be an ingredient in Shade if the Evening, the warlocks wine of Qarth, but the only place we positively know it exists is in Pycelle's collection of poisons. This is the only mention of moonbloom in the whole book.

In real life, we have moon flowers, white, sweet-scented, bloom at night. Their seeds are mildly hallucinogenic, not as toxic as Sacred Nightshade (datura wrightii) which looks similar, and is also called moonflower. Actually, the more I look (flicking between this and Google as I type), the more this looks like GRRM's moonbloom is a datura species. It is native to Southwestern USA, Zuni healers used all parts of the plant (and all parts of the plant are crazy toxic). Apart from poisoning and death, it can destroy a person's ability to form memories and cause auditory and visual hallucinations. It can cause blindness that lasts for days- so maybe the waif has some in her Apothecary. It is pollinated by hawkmoths. And there is this

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From 1950 to 1965, the State Chemical Laboratories in Agra, India, investigated 2,778 deaths caused by ingesting Datura.^[10][25] A group called Thugs (practicers of thuggee) were devotees of an Indian religious cult made up of robbers and assassins who strangled and/or poisoned their victims in rituals devoted to the Hindu goddess Kali. They were known to employ Datura in many such poisonings, using it also to induce drowsiness or stupefaction, making strangulation easier.^[26]

Datura toxins may be ingested accidentally by consumption of honey produced by several wasp species, including Brachygastra lecheguana, during the Datura blooming season. It appears that these semi-domesticated honey wasps collect Datura nectar for honey production which can lead to poisoning.^[27]

Wikipedia entry on Datura

So, sweetening his milk with honey might not have spared Pycelle from a poisoning. Or might have been an inept attempt to poison Eddard. There are lots of references to honey in the books that could foreshadow poisoning, too many to spend any more of this post on it. Daytura dies off in the frosts of autumn and won't flower again until spring.

Pycelle notes that Jon Arryn had seemed more than ordinarily troubled when he came asking for Malleon, the day before he died. That Lord Tywin, Cersei, Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen had left for Casterley Rock the day after Jaime was defeated by the Knight of Flowers.

Pycelle does not seem to feel any need to protect the poisoner, except if the poisoner was Cersei, he wanted to shelter her from Lysa's accusations. He allows that poison is a possibility, if not a likelyhood, and throws shade on Varys.

Apparently all Pycelle did for Jon Arryn was to halt Colemon's purges and, 'when he saw all hope had fled', administered the milk of the poppy that rendered his last words unintelligible. However, Jon had plenty of time to talk to Robert or Lysa if he wished.  Then, when Jon died or was dying, Pycelle took his book back. 

So, we can't be sure whether Pycelle thought Maester Colemon's treatment was curing or killing Jon Arryn.

I don't think Petyr Baelish wants to kill SweetRobin. At the moment, his position depends on SweetRobin being alive. While he is doing his best to consolidate his rule over the Vale by buying up debts and handing out titles dependant on the holder recognising his authority to bequeath them, his Lords Declarant are not staunch enough to ride into battle for him, and without the True Warden of the East to unify them, would probably start fighting each other.

SweetRobin grants him authority for at least the eight years of his minority. Longer, if he mentors SweetRobin as he does Sansa. He has already managed to bond the boy's affections to Sansa, another way to control him, his love of Alayne acting as a carrot to the stick that is his fear of his Lord Protector. And Petyr can take away Alayne any time he chooses.)

The whole 'marry Harry and the Vale is yours' thing is nonsense. It makes about as much sense as the fArya marriage securing the North for the Boltons and making Ramsey the Stark in Winterfell. Or Lancel's betrothal making Amerei the head of house Darry. Or Cersei's marriage to Robert making her the Queen Regent. 

These figleaf excuses are only as effective as the armies that will fight to uphold them. Robert had the armies of the North, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the West. Roose has the Northern army, who all know Jeyne is not Arya. He is marrying her to Ramsey at Winterfell in order to provoke any armies of Stark loyalists that Lord Commander Snow and Stannis have acquired. (He is not one to overlook a bastard).

Amerei has the Freys and Ser Bonifer's holy hundred,  Ser Kevan Lannister and Ser Harwin Plum to assert her claim. It probably won't be enough to stop Lady Stoneheart and Nymeria, but it deters opportunists like Randyl Tarly and brings unarmed civilians back to King Tommen's Peace.

Harry is a jumped up squire. He won a fight that had been set up to exclude all the knights in the yard so that he would win it, and got his knighthood because Bronze Yohn had to counter the Lord Protector's overtures to Anya somehow. Harry's looks and attitude remind Sansa of Joffery. He has fathered two bastards to two different girls, and could answer Myranda's prayers without divine intervention. His value is that the Lords Declarant believe he has value. He is their heir to the vale, SweetRobin is Petyr's.

Harry isn't the kind of person we would want Sansa to marry, and he seems more inclined to make bastards than marry one? Even if the dowry is exorbitant and the girl is pretty, she is a bastard and he is the heir of the Vale.

 Finding out afterwards that she was really an attainted traitor and the Imp's wife isn't necessarily an improvement from Harry's perspective. From Sansa's perspective, Harry is an unsuitable match for a princess and the heiress of Winterfell. An heir presumptive that is ten years older than the incumbent, from a minor bannerlord of the Arryns. With a track record that suggests he would treat a bastard wife as a disposable toy that could get him Petyr's position.

And what about when Harry dies? Who is the heir to the Eyrie then? It seems to me that genealogically it might devolve to Sansa through her great-grand-aunty Royce. That Harry is another empty suit of armour. That Petyr might soon be giving Sansa Tears of Lys to put in Harry's wine, if he ever goes ahead with the wedding.

Having Alayne betrothed to Harry has short-term benefits for the Lord Protector. It keeps Anya Waynwood honour-bound to uphold his title as Lord Protector. It forestalls any of the other squires of the Vale thinking they might make their fortune by eloping with the Lord Protector's daughter, or their evening by taking her virginity. If people are gossiping about the Lord Protector's bastard getting married, perhaps Ser Andar Royce won't remember the pretty girl with the green dress and the auburn hair that stood next to the Hand of the King at the tourney when he meets her. 

Like fArya, Alayne's identity is not a well-kept secret. The servants in the Eyrie, including gossipy Maddy, have seen and heard plenty that might raise suspicions. She made a castle with covered gardens out of snow. When Lysa was there she slept with the servants, she bears an uncanny resemblance to Lady Catlyn who stayed in the room she sleeps in now. Ser Lothar Brune defeated her father's man at the Tourney of the Hand, Myranda noted she knew the first name of the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. The inhabitants of Gulltown know nothing of this Alayne, Chella and Timmet know her...now that the Vale is out of Lysa's lockdown, Sansa's cover might not last as long as her hair dye. Petyr is no fool. He knows this, just as Bolton knows Jeyne isn't Arya and Manderley knows the prisoner he executed was not the Onion Knight.

Petyr says the knights of the Vale will follow Harry and fight for Sansa's claim to Winterfell. I am pretty sure neither of those are true.  Bronze Yohn had done his best to unite the Knights of the Vale, but Petyr has smashed the unity of the Lords Declarant. They won't come together for a stripling like Harry. Not when Cersei is offering big bags of gold for Sansa's head. If Bronze Yohn is starved into submission, he might unite the Knights of the Vale under Petyr Baelish, but not for Harry, and not to restore Sansa to Winterfell.

Petyr Baelish is a suave and plausible liar, but he is a compulsive liar. There may be some truth in what he has told her, but this is the guy that used Ned Stark's gold dragons to kill Ned Stark's household. Then arranged the death of Ned Stark, blaming it on Cersei. Observe Petry's behaviour in AGoT Ch 51 Sansa IV and tell me how much he loves Catelyn, his paternal interest in Sansa's welfare. The hound rescued Jeyne Poole; Petyr used her as a sex slave in his brothel until he could sell Tywin on the idea of making her fArya. Petyr saw he could take Sansa off Cersei, who was slow to see the benefit of having a fArya. Tyrion lies too, but not when he points out Littlefinger only cares for Littlefinger.

Littlefinger doesn't want the Vale. He wants to be Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, in fact as well as name. I doubt his plans for Sansa include paying Harry to take her maidenhead for him. I don't think much of Dontos, but when he first met her in the Godswood I don't think he was Petyr's catspaw. Dontos spoke of his "friend" coming back to the city, after Petry had left for Bitterbridge, but when Dontos swore his oath upon the heart tree, I believe he set out to do exactly what he said he would, to find her a ship out of King's Landing. That Petyr's men at the docks noticed a clown seeking passage for two, and that was when Petyr took over. But Petyr wanted to make sure he got all credit for the scheme, to give Sansa the notion that Dontos had worked for golden dragons and for him from the start. 

Petyr has a hatred of Tyrion, sets him up every chance he gets. Holding Sansa might be his insurance against Tyrion, when he resurfaces. His advice to Sansa that sometimes it is useful to kill the king you are allied with is bullshit. Again, he is attempting to claim all credit for saving Sansa, and giving her reasons to distrust her Tyrell friends. I have not worked out his game but I am pretty sure he is interested in her claim. That, and the fact that she is the image of her mother at the age when she refused to make him Lord Paramount of the Riverlands. 

If Petyr has a passion, it would be to rule the Riverlands and the North, make sure Sansa is the last Tully, as well as the last Stark, take Sansa's virginity (he is big on this 'gift that can only be given once' thing), destroy her Family, destroy her Duty, destroy her Honour. Then destroy her.

 fArya has given him a finger in the Bolton pie, his nominal Lordship is a finger in the Frey pie, and Lysa got him his finger in the Vale (and of course, he inherited his finger in the Fingers).

He has other fingers in other places. His bargains with Renly and campaign with Lord Tywin have given him fingers in the Reach and the Westerlands, his time at court got him friends in the crownlands and on isles important for shipping and smuggling (I deduce, from the colour of his outfits when Eddard sees him, and his frequent attendance at Lady Tanda's feasts).

It seems inconceivable that Petyr would play the Game of Thrones merely to be the power behind Ser Harry of the Vale, who is too old to need a regent. He is telling Sansa what he wants her to believe. He doesn't play to come second. He shares Cersei's view on the Game of Thrones.

TL;DR SweetRobin is more resilient than Maester Colemon knows. And Petyr Baelish wants him alive.