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Ukraine: Slava Ukraini!!!

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16 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

IMO there is no realistic scenario where Ukraine is militarily defeated and agrees to give away a bunch of territory in 2023.  If we go on a hypothetical that Russia commits to another, larger mobilization and wins decisively in summer/autumn of 20241, followed by a Trump victory2, then it is possible that Putin could seek additional victories, but I personally think he would be much more likely to wait a while to rebuild his military and economy.  Not to mention the continuing occupation of Ukrainian territory which will be a low/mid intensity guerrilla war for decades. 

Even with that string of very good luck for Putin, I'm personally doubtful that Russia could win a war with the Baltics and Poland in 2026.  This war has demonstrated that Russia's conventional military power was greatly overestimated.  While it is fair to call into question NATO's political will, particularly going forward with other threats like climate change, that doesn't change the fact that Russia's military power is fading.  


1 I think this is extremely optimistic for Russia and quite unlikely.

2 Possible, but by no means certain.  50/50 or so.

And I disagree somewhat. Russia's military strength was designed for a fight with NATO first and foremost, which meant among  other things a massive amount of firepower without any actual limitation on collateral damages. Russia has for the most part self-limited and gone with a strategy that counteracts that power significantly. That won't be the case in the Baltics. All that artillery being used to dull advancements and work as counterbattery fire across a 200km front could be used to absolutely pulverize Vilnius in a 20km area, as an example. 

My hypothetical is that Russia decides to withdraw, either because they are forced to or because they get capitulation from a suddenly weak-ass Western alliance in 2024-2025. And then Russia 6 months later simply takes those forces and goes on the warpath in the Baltics. The Baltics will not be armed enough by that time and in fact most of their resources will have gone to the Ukrainian front. NATO will be given a choice, and chances are good that the same political winds that made Ukraine sue for peace would also be present to make NATO intervention fail. 

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