AGOT Mafia 50 - The Chef Battle

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='House Pommingham' post='1321250' date='Apr 20 2008, 06.36']So, I count Merryweather PI now.
For reasons of safety, we should presume we have two guilties alive. From my PoW, possible pairs left are Stokeworth/Grandison, Corbray/Grandison and Corbray/Stokeworth. And the third is rather unlikely, because of Corbray suspecting Stokeworth much.
Both other pairs include [b]Grandison[/b]. The person whom we suspected from the very beginning but somehow couldn't lynch. The person too much alike Fell from previous game.[/quote]

We could have three and be in end game...

[House Sunglass]

[quote name='House Florent' post='1321361' date='Apr 20 2008, 03.12']We could have three and be in end game...[/quote]If so, we can't do anything about it.

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='House Pommingham' post='1321365' date='Apr 20 2008, 09.24']If so, we can't do anything about it.[/quote]

I guess. We have to remember that we might *have* to get this one right.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Pommingham' post='1321250' date='Apr 20 2008, 01.36']So, I count Merryweather PI now.
For reasons of safety, we should presume we have two guilties alive. From my PoW, possible pairs left are Stokeworth/Grandison, Corbray/Grandison and Corbray/Stokeworth. And the third is rather unlikely, because of Corbray suspecting Stokeworth much.
Both other pairs include [b]Grandison[/b]. The person whom we suspected from the very beginning but somehow couldn't lynch. The person too much alike Fell from previous game.[/quote]

I haven't gone out of my way to be inactive. Fuck, everyone has done it: I am at a convention. I honestly thought the game would either end or I would be dead before convention started (or it would be very close to over)

If I was evil, there is no way I would let myself be one of the bottom posters.

I have a question: Why is Stokeworth still alive? There are two options: either he has been completely wrong or he is evil. Not that I am deliberately contrary, but I'm voting for whomever he thinks is not likely the FM (besides me of course)

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Grandison' post='1321439' date='Apr 20 2008, 08.07']I have a question: Why is Stokeworth still alive? There are two options: either he has been completely wrong or he is evil. Not that I am deliberately contrary, but I'm voting for whomever he thinks is not likely the FM (besides me of course)[/quote]

No, you [i]are[/i] being deliberately contrary. Either that or you are completely forgetting that the last 3 night kills have been:

1) Plumm - revealed Finder
2) Connington - VPI because of her votes against Smallwood
3) Thorne - NaK (investigated by the Finder)

You really expected the FM to kill me over one of them?

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

:rolleyes:

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Stokeworth' post='1321453' date='Apr 20 2008, 07.43']No, you [i]are[/i] being deliberately contrary. Either that or you are completely forgetting that the last 3 night kills have been:

1) Plumm - revealed Finder
2) Connington - VPI because of her votes against Smallwood
3) Thorne - NaK (investigated by the Finder)

You really expected the FM to kill me over one of them?[/quote]

I am forgetting. I have barely skimmed the thread, and haven't made it notes. I have planned on doing so this morning, but thank you for pointing that out. It does makes sense. (and I don't at the moment, but caffine is starting to work ;) )

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Connington' post='1319135' date='Apr 18 2008, 10.55']I'm about to head out, but before I do, here's why I'm ruling out/bumping down various partnerships (Note-I left Corbray out of these because I don't think he is suspicious, and I hope that won't come back to haunt me).

Smallwood, Tollett, Dayne (Stokeworth can be symp)- I see nothing to point away from this grouping. As I mentioned above, Dayne's failure to comment on the Smallwood case is very suspicious. I don't think he had a lot to say on the cases on Tollett either, but I'd have to check that.

Smallwood, Tollett, Grandison (Stokeworth cannot be symp) - I've left this in for the sake of argument. Note-Stokeworth was attacking Grandison day 1. It was early in the day, but I don't think he would have done that as a symp, because it would increase the danger of him being NK'ed early. This is the only significant exchange I see between them: [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1315099"]#578[/url], [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1315268"]#621[/url], [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1315282"]#622[/url]. It's not fully conclusive, but Tollett's sounds genuinely frustrated with Grandison. I don't think this is a very likely grouping.

Smallwood, Tollett, Erenford (Stokeworth cannot be symp)-This one is out. Tollett and Erenford attacked each other consistently for 2 days.

Smallwood, Tollett, Pommingham (Stokeworth can be symp)- This one is also plausible, although interactions like [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1316608"]this one[/url] actually make me think this is less likely. A small thing, but I wouldn't expect partners to think to say that on thread.

Smallwood, Dayne, Grandison (Stokeworth cannot be symp)- Possible, although again, little things like this exchange make this one slightly less likely to my mind: [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1314796"]#510[/url], [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1314801"]#512[/url].

Smallwood, Dayne, Erenford (Stokeworth cannot be symp)-Dayne voted Erenford at the end of day 1. This one's out.

Smallwood, Dayne, Pommingham (Stokeworth can be symp)-Dayne voted for Pommingham day 1, possibly distancing, but I think this is less likely given that neither of them distanced themselves at all from Smallwood.

Smallwood, Grandison, Erenford (Stokeworth cannot be symp)-possible, although if it's true, then we can afford some mistakes.

Smallwood, Grandison, Pommingham (Stokeworth cannot be symp)-Pommingham started out yesterday with vote on Grandison, and this day 2 spat looks legit [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1314709"]http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&am...t&p=1314709[/url], [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1314815"]#517[/url], [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27658&view=findpost&p=1314829"]#520[/url]

Smallwood, Erenford, Pommingham (Stokeworth cannot be symp)-This one is also possible.[/quote]

I like this post. Looking at the possible combinations, I KNOW I don't have any partners. The only really plausible FM partner lleft looks to be [b]Pommingham[/b]

I am going to apologize to all the players and the mods. I have never been this inactive or lazy in a game before. What should have been an easy week had a lot of problems and then the game wasn't as far along as I thought it would be by the weekend. I am sorry. I'll be checking out soon and heading to the train station.

[House Sunglass]

[quote name='House Stokeworth' post='1321453' date='Apr 20 2008, 07.43']You really expected the FM to kill me over one of them?[/quote]True; but another thing is that you was extraordnally passive after Wythers' reveal. You did nothing except of accusing me. You voted Dayne the last; and you even haven't voted me after that.
If you are truely innocent, please, do something. I don't expect wonders, but you could at least say something about Dayne's lynch and Thorne's kill. Do you agree that Florent's kill would make much more sense, unless killer wanted to keep Merry on suspection?

[House Sunglass]

[quote name='House Grandison' post='1321489' date='Apr 20 2008, 08.48']I like this post. Looking at the possible combinations, I KNOW I don't have any partners. The only really plausible FM partner lleft looks to be [b]Pommingham[/b][/quote]Yeah. It's either you or me, there are no variants where we are both innocent (except of situations where only one guilty is alive).
Now, you all: would I attack Stokeworth if guilty? And would I clear Merryweather, who can't be my partner due to Conny's analysis?

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Pommingham' post='1321504' date='Apr 20 2008, 10.08']Yeah. It's either you or me, there are no variants where we are both innocent (except of situations where only one guilty is alive).
Now, you all: would I attack Stokeworth if guilty? And would I clear Merryweather, who can't be my partner due to Conny's analysis?[/quote]

why not? I have been back and forth with Stokeworth the whole game. I have no idea if the analysis is 100% accurate. Last game, people were positive that Bar E and Fell couldn't be partners, but they were.

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Pommingham' post='1321500' date='Apr 20 2008, 10.00']If you are truely innocent, please, do something.[/quote]

Sorry, it's just been an extremely busy end of the week/weekend for me. I have a lot more time today, and am currently re-reading the thread and evaluating possible living FM pairs.

[quote]I don't expect wonders, but you could at least say something about Dayne's lynch and Thorne's kill. Do you agree that Florent's kill would make much more sense, unless killer wanted to keep Merry on suspection?[/quote]

I think Dayne's lynch was probably a mistake. I suspected him less than I suspect you and Grandison. But I voted for him because the other votes and the timing of the day and the lack of people in the thread made him our only viable option. And I certainly couldn't call him PI, given that he had done a few suspicious things and was a possible Smallwood partner.

As for the kill and what it says....well, it was inevitably going to be Florent or Thorne. The fact that Thorne was chosen...yeah, I suppose it's possible that the FM wanted to keep Florent around to suspect Merryweather.

[House Frey]

I am having some major internet issues right now. It takes literally 20-25 minutes to get one page to load. I'm trying to figure out why and get it worked out. Hopefully that'll be soon.

[House Frey]

Ok.

It looks like my internet is working now.

Now, to look at partners.

Lets assume 2 evils. We can eliminate Florent. The only way I can see Florent being evil is if he's a promotable symp. As such, we should leave him alone til tomorrow. The same thing can be said for Stokeworth. I can't see any way that he's a FM in this game. The play doesn't fit.

So I'm going to look past those two for today because if we do lynch one and there are 2 FM left, we'll lose.

That leaves Pommingham, Grandison and Corbray.

I just did a quick reread of Corbray and Pommingham looking for connections to each other. There really aren't any. At one point on day 1, Corbray put Pommingham on his list, but it was after Plumm and it was during the time that he was voting Mallister. He said he was happy to stay on Mallister. He also said several times that he didn't like the case against Pommingham but never really outwardly dismissed it. On the flip side, Pommingham is never really suspicious of him and up until recently, really didn't interact with him.

Based on those rereads, there is nothing in their posts that suggest they aren't partners. On top of that, both of them have connections to Smallwood.

So Corbray/Pommingham is a possibility.

Grandison/Corbray is a possibility as well. Corbray did a reread of Grandison day 2 and broke apart his posts. At the end, he said.

[quote name='Grandison']The main points against Grandison from my POV are: lack of contribution, parroting, Not very good case against Merryweather, dismissing the case on Erenford without adequate explanation.

I have only moderate suspicion of Grandison from this re-read. Someone to watch, certainly, and I would like to hear more original thoughts from Grandison, including why he doesn't like the case against Erenford (beyond it being made by Merryweather).[/quote]

Those main points are good points imo. It's what I'd look for in a guilty person on day 1 and day 2. Since then, Grandison hasn't done anything else to help other than keeping himself alive with modkill avoidance posts. I haven't read anything from Corbray about growing suspicion. He wanted to keep his eye on him, he wanted to hear more original thoughts yet he never follows up and pressures him at all. I haven't had the chance to look through Grandison's posts yet but I don't remember off the top of my head of Grandison ever mentioning Corbray in a negative light at all.

I'll look at a possible Grandison/Pommingham partnership next but given the fact that they're voting for each other right now instead of trying to push me, Stokeworth or Corbray makes me believe they're not partnered.

I am going to dig deeper into Corbray though. Dayne never finished his reread and I think given the fact that I can see him being partnered with both Grandison and Pommingham, I need to reread. This time I will :)

[House Upcliff]

If i'm the only one not willing to write Merry an instant safe pass to go with Stokeworth's and mine, then I'm willing to ignore him for the time being and concentrate on the Corbray, Grandison and Pommingham.

I guess i agree that Grandison and Pommingham is an unlikely combination. I could be wrong, but why distance like that when 1) we only know there's at least A FM alive, not that there's definately 2, and 2) we don't have CF anyway? If i go into mega-WIFOM mode as I'm finding myself prone to do, we could perhaps come to the conclusion that seeing as if they are partners, we have two chances to get two FM, so we're most likely to now go for Corbray plus one of them rather than both of them. With a CF that'd be a perfect strategy. As it is, it relies on us beleiving once we kill one of them that they were FM, and as such the other's safe.

So, mega WIFOM aside, I guess the safe route for now is to take Corbray out. I'll try to fit a re-read of my own, and wait for Merrys re-read too. Once i've either re-read or read someone elses re-read of him, I'll place a vote (if it still feels right). :-p

[House Upcliff]

Corbray - Just over 50 posts total. The silent suspect.

Note: I've sort of got my head around post numbers with case making and stuff. I've included comments on posts inside quote boxes. Click the redy thing to view the post itself i guess. :-p


Starts with standard roleplay.

[quote post='1312854']- Comments on a lot of players, posts a suspect list, no sign of Smallwood. Or Grandison interestingly enough. Suggests we look at Pommingham amoung others, but it was early and a big list, and also included himself.[/quote]
[quote post='1313180']- Defends Grandison's recipe.[/quote]
[quote post='1313822']- Attacks Pomm again.[/quote]
[quote post='1315025']- "I don't have a feel for Grandison. I will work on a re-read of him next."[/quote]
[quote post='1315054']- Bickers with pomm again.
1315141 - Yet another person who didn't see the origional "contradiction" yet tries to use it against me.[/quote]
[quote post='1315293']- The grandison re-read. "The main points against Grandison from my POV are: lack of contribution, parroting, Not very good case against Merryweather, dismissing the case on Erenford without adequate explanation." - Very weak case. Perfect for a partner to make when prompted.[/quote]
[quote post='1315862']- Doesn't think Small's an FM, but leaves the door open to vote him.[/quote]
[quote post='1316833']- Votes small after the Plumm reveal. Part of the rush hammer.[/quote]
[quote post='1317692']- Explains the rush vote. "I felt the Plumm reveal was true, and I was heading out the door with no ability to return before the end of the day." - Hard to argue that point, but then, that doesn't mean it's true.[/quote]
[quote post='1317733']- Goes after Stoke. Brave of an FM, but perhaps with meta stuff coming out, it seemed like a good way to hide in plain sight? We all find it hard to make cases on those attacking us the hardest.[/quote]
[quote post='1317835']- Throws two cases in together. Dayne and Stoke.[/quote]
[quote post='1318749']- Feels better about Pomm all of a sudden. Glazes over Grandison saying he hates giving free passes, but with so few lynches left he will do so this time.[/quote]
[quote post='1320303']- Accuses the FM of having a conspiracy to kill off anyone who PIs him. Oddly enough, it was only a few days ago i suggested killing people who didn't suspect you could be a clever FM move. :rolleyes: WIFOM this one to hell though.[/quote]
[quote post='1320698']- Throws Grandison or Pomm forward as possible FM. Of course, doesn't want to lynch them today...[/quote]
[quote post='1320733']- Again protects Grandison. Keeps open option to lynch him though (As with Small)[/quote]

Right. I hope that's a bit more readable...

So, I think I'd like to cast some doubts on Corbray Pommingham partnership. However, his behavior towards Smallwood and Grandison is VERY similar.

He hasn't said a lot, but what he has said has tended to be quite offensive against most people, but defensive of Grandison and our only confirmed killer. Do we use CK? :P

[b]Corbray[/b] will swing.

[House Frey]

Florent, I'm actually in the process of writing up a case on Corbray. I'm reaching the same conclusion as you. It'll take me a little bit longer as I'm only about halfway done. Expect it soon.

[House Payne]

Okay, I've re-read each of Pomm, Grandison, Corbray, and Merryweather. I was mainly looking for connections between the 4, because my biggest concern right now is a living pair of evil players who can win the game tomorrow if we mess up today.

So first off, I'm going to eliminate the pairs that are pretty much impossible.

[u]Grandison - Merryweather[/u]
Grandison posts a case against Merry on day 1 (post 314). He follows up on that throughout day 1, and then picks it up again on day 2 (post 680). And it's not a one sided argument, as Merry fights back, and at one point votes Grandison (post 522). This pair is obviously very unlikely.

[u]Grandison - Pommingham[/u]
Pommingham consistently suspects Grandison. It's really all throughout the thread. And he votes for Pomm in posts 499 and 964. Plus they are voting for each other right now. This is another unlikely pair.

Okay, those are the only 2 I really feel comfortable crossing off the list. However, there's one other that I would categorize as 'possible, but unlikely.'

[u]Merryweather - Pommingham[/u]
There isn't much interaction between them early in the game. However, Merry does post a case against Pomm in post 984. It could be distancing, but he lists Pomm as 1 of 2 people he'd be willing to lynch, and he goes through the trouble of writing a case. Doing that runs the risk of other people agreeing...its usually easier for a FM to just say he sort of suspects his partner, play middle of the road to both create distance but push other suspects at the same time, and leave it at that. Also, in post 1039 Merry says that Pomm is a likely partner for Smallwood. Overall, I find this partnership to be unlikely.

So that leaves 3 possible living pairs, from my point of view: Corbray - Grandison, Corbray - Pommingham, and Corbray - Merryweather. I'm sure you'll notice the trend there. I'll address each one in the following posts.

[House Payne]

[u]Corbray - Grandison[/u]

Corbray gives a subtle defense of Grandison in post 273 -

[quote name='Corbray']Tollett also seems to be blending and flying low. I think I pushed him slightly below Mallister because I agreed with his view on Grandison (to the extent that Grandison's recipe did not seem particularly suspicious). There is a lot of behavior that is going on right now that seems to be designed to blend in to the crowd (adding votes to Florent, adding votes to Pommingham, adding recipes, etc). It's hard to know which ones are true attempts to blend in, and which ones are just innocent posts.[/quote]

He later re-reads Grandison, and comes to a middle of the road conclusion -

[quote name='Corbray']The main points against Grandison from my POV are: lack of contribution, parroting, Not very good case against Merryweather, dismissing the case on Erenford without adequate explanation.

[u]I have only moderate suspicion of Grandison[/u] from this re-read. Someone to watch, certainly, and I would like to hear more original thoughts from Grandison, including why he doesn't like the case against Erenford (beyond it being made by Merryweather).[/quote]

Later Corbray doesn't like the case on Grandison -

[quote name='Corbray']I am going to go back and look at Grandison again, but IIRC, I didn't much like that case either. Grandison seems like an easy target at the moment because of his lack of ability to participate effectively in the game. I *hate* giving players a pass for not being able to participate, but we are getting down there in the number of lynches to endgame, so I don't want to just pick off someone like this.[/quote]

And then, in spite of saying that one of Grandison or Pomm is probably evil, here -

[quote name='Corbray speaking to Dayne']I think you have felt the need to come out of the shadows more, now that your partner is dead. [u]That leaves Grandison or Pomm as the other Evil Player (most likely)[/u].[/quote]

He follows up by saying that he still doesn't want to lynch Grandison -

[quote name='Corbray']I need to re-read other players to put these thoughts in perspective, but right now, I still don’t feel terribly strong about lynching Grandison. I know other players have listed some thoughts on Grandison that I should review again as well. I reserve the right to revise this in light of re-reads of other players.[/quote]

And he offers this lukewarm defense -

[quote name='Corbray']Grandison has also gone out of the way to demonstrate a lack of commitment to the game with modkill avoidance posts, talking about going out drinking, etc. Is discussion of this kind of thing in the thread an attempt to paint himself as a someone who can't be bothered to play this game very well? Or is it a cover? It seems like a dangerous cover to use as he could have easily been lynched in place of a few players earlier in the game such as Erenford or Tollett. I hesitate to use the "mere fact of survival" as additional evidence.[/quote]

Meanwhile, Grandison has barely said anything about Corbray at all.

Conclusion - these 2 could certainly be partners.

[House Payne]

[u]Corbray - Pommingham[/u]

Starts with post 376, where Corbray says he's willing to vote Pomm, but puts him on the same level as Plumm and ranks both of them behind his top option of Mallister -

[quote name='Corbray']I could probably move towards Pomm or Plumm. With some growing pressure on Mallister, though, I am content to remain here for now. FM too often get away with not contributing, committing, or voting on Day 1. Overall I feel better about lynching a non-posting, non-comittal player to help force the FM to post more.[/quote]

Posts 560, 563 and 567 could be another attempt at distancing. First Corbray posts, then Pomm calls him out for being wishy washy, and then Corbray responds, irritated and turning things around on Pomm -

[quote name='Pomm'][quote name='Corbray']I don't have a feel for Grandison. I will work on a re-read of him next.

I am still thinking about Wythers.

Also not sure about Erenford.[/quote]
So wishy-washy, Corbray?[/quote]

[quote name='Corbray']It's early yet. Why don't you contribute something useful yourself instead of criticizing players who are trying?

I don't have a strong read on Grandison or Erenford yet. Is that wishywashy? We are talking about two players that have made minimal contributions. If you have some solid reads on these players, lay them out there.[/quote]

So they snipe at each other a bit, but never actually follow up with any pressure or an actual vote.

They don't really interact much after that, until later in the game. That's where we get -

[quote name='Corbray']I have reviewed the cases on Pommingham, and I don't feel real good about them. Merryweather makes a reasonable case against Pomm, but it doesn't ultimately convince me. Stokeworth promotes Pommingham as a target based on Pomm's failing to state his suspicions of Smallwood, and then Pomm is acting as though he should get credit for having suspected Smallwood. I just don't find myself convinced. I was more convinced that Wythers was a Symp than I am that Pomm is likely evil based on that argument.[/quote]

And finally we have the same quote from Corbray that I listed in the 'Corbray - Grandison' case, where he says that one of Grandison/Pomm is probably a partner to Dayne.

[quote name='Corbray']I think you have felt the need to come out of the shadows more, now that your partner is dead. [u]That leaves Grandison or Pomm as the other Evil Player (most likely).[/u][/quote]

The difference, though, is that Corbray doesn't follow that up with any defenses of Pomm, the way he did for Grandison. He just doesn't say much of anything at all about Pomm after that post.

Again, not much interaction, but whats out there is suspicious.


[u]Corbray - Merryweather[/u]

The main point here is that Corbray and Merry barely ever interact. Seriously, I could hardly find any posts where they mention each other in either a positive or a negative way. The only things worth noting are listed below.

Merry says that he doesn't think Corbray is a likely partner for Smallwood in post 1039 -
[quote name='Merry']So, my thoughts are going to be toward possible partners of Smallwood.

. . .

I haven't reread Cobray but I don't ever remember once questioning his line of thinking so he's out for now.[/quote]

Pretty lame reason for dismissing him as a possible partner. What does Merryweather agreeing with Corbray's 'line of thinking' have to do with connections between Corbray and Smallwood?

The other point was Merry saying he'd re-read Corbray in post 1089, and then not following through with it. He claims in post 1109 that its because Dayne started the re-read, and he wanted to see what Dayne would come up with. So he decides to re-read Dayne instead. Not really a strong point, but I guess its possible that he wanted to re-read his partner, but later decided that it would be too difficult to do while remaining neutral.

As I said...there's not a lot of direct evidence indicating a partnership here. The main point is that they [i]could[/i] be partners, because there's nothing in the thread that speaks against it either.