AGOT Mafia Game 51

[House Tyrell]

Just to show you again how I ended up with Yarwyck as an investigation target:

Players:
Bracken, Coldwater, Dondarrion, Garner, Grandison, Harclay, Mullendore, Swyft, Vyrwel, Yarwyck.
Delete the impossible ones: myself and Vyr
Delete the people I give the benefit of the doubt on not being killers: Grandison, Harclay
Delete the grey zone: Don and Bracken

I'm left with the people I'm suspicious of: Coldwater, Mullendore, Swyft, Yarwyck.
Coldwater, Mullendore and Swyft aren't really much taken seriously... so the winner is Yarwyck. Also the highest poster of the bunch.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341621' date='May 4 2008, 12.03']Just to show you again how I ended up with Yarwyck as an investigation target:

Players:
Bracken, Coldwater, Dondarrion, Garner, Grandison, Harclay, Mullendore, Swyft, Vyrwel, Yarwyck.
Delete the impossible ones: myself and Vyr
Delete the people I give the benefit of the doubt on not being killers: Grandison, Harclay
Delete the grey zone: Don and Bracken

I'm left with the people I'm suspicious of: Coldwater, Mullendore, Swyft, Yarwyck.
Coldwater, Mullendore and Swyft aren't really much taken seriously... so the winner is Yarwyck. Also the highest poster of the bunch.[/quote]

Yes, but it doesn't make much sense when you're sitting on a guilty verdict. You could have easily used your previous investigations to help fuel your future ones but you didn't. Instead, you chose a random player that had the highest post count of the group. It might make sense to you, but not to me.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1341606' date='May 4 2008, 11.45']Fuck. With 8 players left and the potential for 2 NKs a night, if we lynch both of you over the next 2 days, we'd be in a really shitty position.[/quote]Then, don't lynch me. :) I am just a symp, from Aly's PoV. And she is full killer, from my PoV.
Happy birthday, by the way.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341621' date='May 4 2008, 12.03']Just to show you again how I ended up with Yarwyck as an investigation target:
[i]<snip>[/i][/quote]
You had a guilty verdict on Royce. Why not investigate me and Dondarrion when we were defending him pretty hardcore? You had three investigations, may as well gone for both of us.

[House Tyrell]

In hindsight, I guess so...But at that moment I thought otherwise...
Can't do anything about it now. And I'm quite happy with catching two killers and being sure that Vyr isn't one.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341637' date='May 4 2008, 12.15']In hindsight, I guess so...But at that moment I thought otherwise...
Can't do anything about it now. And I'm quite happy with catching two killers and being sure that Vyr isn't one.[/quote]
It is, after all, very convenient.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 5.

8 players remain: Bracken, Coldwater, Dondarrion, Garner, Grandison, Mullendore, Swyft, Vyrwel.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

1 vote for Bracken ( Swyft)
1 vote for Mullendore ( Garner)
1 vote for Garner ( Mullendore)
1 vote for Swyft ( Dondarrion)
1 vote for Dondarrion ( Coldwater)

3 players have not voted: Bracken, Grandison, Vyrwel.

A bit more than 17 hours left.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='House Blackfyre' post='1341648' date='May 4 2008, 12.24']1 vote for Bracken ( Swyft)
1 vote for Mullendore ( Garner)
1 vote for Garner ( Mullendore)
1 vote for Swyft ( Dondarrion)
1 vote for Dondarrion ( Coldwater)[/quote]
Clearly, we are all in agreement over who to lynch.

[House Tyrell]

Now that's something new...

I'm not stuck on Mullendore. I'd be OK with lynching quite a range of people today.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341443' date='May 4 2008, 05.12'][b]Mullendore[/b]
You've played your act like a good little symp. You can stop now.
If you still pretend you're on the Blackfyre faction, Mr Shit from Diamonds, then go have a look at your favourites and give me a good reason why you trust exactly those people who have given us nothing but shaky accusations all game long.
You're getting trapped in your own net.

The fact that there was only one kill last night is a fairly good indication, imho, that we were right yesterday and that there's only one killer team left.[/quote]

I'm not sure I follow this. Mullendore is Yarwyck's Symp? That makes Yarwyck a FM. I have a hard time imagining Mullendore surviving the death of his master and contributing to it by making the hammer vote when it looked like we were going to have a no-lynch. A symp would not kill his master in that situation just to try and look innocent. That makes no sense to me. Am I missing something there? I was willing to go with you against Yarwyck on the theory that I was wrong about Yarwyck being a symp (based on your finder result), but this post suggesting that Mullendore is the symp (I assume to Yarwyck since he tried to create the alternate lynch on you) is really making me nervous. My view of their behavior prior to yesterday was that Yarwyck was more of a symp and Mullendore was a potential FM. Their behavior yesterday was just the opposite.

If Yarwyck was the FM, are you suggesting that he was the last FM on his team (based on only 1 NK) and Mullendore is just an obsolete Symp, then? If so, I would think we should ignore mullendore and track the remaining faction that NK'd Kat last night.

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341443' date='May 4 2008, 05.12']This is how I foresee the votes falling today:

On me: Coldwater, Mullendore, Swyft (which should pretty much give us the killer faction plus one or two misguided innocents and leftover symps)
On one of the above: Garner, Grandison, Vyrwel, (Bracken)
Undecided: Dondarrion

I see another long and boring day coming...unless the last 2 roles finally want to reveal?

BTW, Bracken, how well do you know me? I don't think we can have played together very often. But thanks for the trust.[/quote]

Unless Mullendore was a "promotable Symp" like the Chef game (which doesn't make sense), I am a little uncertain about voting him based on your theory. It would be much easier if there were a convincing case that he was a FM.

Based on yesterday's activity:

high suspicion: Coldwater, Swyft

significant suspicion: mullendore

moderate suspicion: Garner

A bit more suspicion than low: Vyrwel

low suspicion: halo, dondarrian

Basically not much has changed, but I moved Garner and Vyrwel to a tier that is a little more accurate about how I feel.

Garner: to answer your question, I don't know you at all. I judged you based on your gameplay up to that point in the game. It helped that Kat came out and said that she knows you and did not think that you were playing like you do when evil. I didn't have Kat VPI'd, but I figured that someone else would counter her statement if it was clearly symping you.

I still feel confident in halo's innocence, but I am nervous about his not being NK'd yet. If we are down to only a single FM team, there are still multiple PI players to choose from for their NK, so that may explain that they just haven't gotten around to him yet.

Dondarrian said in advance exactly what he was doing with regard to his vote, he followed through exactly as he said, and I am perfectly okay with it. I felt exactly the same when I checked out early in the day yesterday, only I knew I would be coming back. If Dondarrian was guilty, and actually available to vote at the end of the day, I would be surprised that he would abstain. If he was guilty and truthfully unable to come back before the end of the day, I strongly suspect that he would have voted for someone. His excuse of having to pick only one vote withou being able to change it would be the perfect excuse. Everything that Dondarrian has done in this game has been consistent internally, and consistent with being innocent. I think it must be infuriating to the FM that Dondarrian seems innocent since they don't seem to be able to NK him. :lol: As a result of my read on Dondarrian, I am increasingly suspicious of those who are trying to get him lynched today since that is the only way an FM team can eliminate him without blowing a bunch of NKs. I would think if they had the power to ninja him or some other daytime kill, they would have done it by now.

Unless something significant changes with Halo and Dondarrian, I will not be voting for either one of them. I would be willing to vote for Coldwater, Swyft, Mullendore, and possibly, Garner, and Vyrwel. I'll work out a vote in a little while, but at the moment I am leaning towards Swyft.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341662' date='May 4 2008, 12.36']I'm not stuck on Mullendore. I'd be OK with lynching quite a range of people today.[/quote]But of course. You can't end voting a person you count just as symp. You should at least pretend looking for a master.
I think you just wait for somebody else to vote on you, to announce them evil. And if nobody would vote on you, you would be happy with any lynch, unless it's your partner, not?

[House Redfort]

[quote name='House Bracken' post='1341667' date='May 4 2008, 12.41']I'll work out a vote in a little while, but at the moment I am leaning towards Swyft.[/quote]
I don't suppose there's anything I can do to remedy this situation?

Besides stop posting one-liners, I mean.

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='House Bracken' post='1341667' date='May 4 2008, 18.41']I'm not sure I follow this. Mullendore is Yarwyck's Symp? That makes Yarwyck a FM. I have a hard time imagining Mullendore surviving the death of his master and contributing to it by making the hammer vote when it looked like we were going to have a no-lynch. A symp would not kill his master in that situation just to try and look innocent. That makes no sense to me. Am I missing something there? I was willing to go with you against Yarwyck on the theory that I was wrong about Yarwyck being a symp (based on your finder result), but this post suggesting that Mullendore is the symp (I assume to Yarwyck since he tried to create the alternate lynch on you) is really making me nervous. My view of their behavior prior to yesterday was that Yarwyck was more of a symp and Mullendore was a potential FM. Their behavior yesterday was just the opposite.[/quote]
I have no idea what Mullendore is. My vote this morning was more of an impulsive reaction at getting pretty annoyed about him. As I said, I'm not stuck on him. I'd prefer going after somebody with a higher probability of being a killer.
[quote]If Yarwyck was the FM, are you suggesting that he was the last FM on his team (based on only 1 NK) and Mullendore is just an obsolete Symp, then? If so, I would think we should ignore mullendore and track the remaining faction that NK'd Kat last night.[/quote]
Yarwyck was the FM. I don't know if he's the last one, but the one nightkill might be an indication. Except if that's exactly what they want us to believe.
Mulc could be the symp of the Yarwyck faction (in which case he indeed killed his master when there were good chances for a stalemate) or an FM on the other faction (in which case I don't know why he came after me so vehemently. It's even possible that he's another innocent finder, after all our results don't contradict each other.

To be honest, I'm a bit lost today. While I had investigation targets to go after, I didn't pay enough attention to possible teams, except noticing people who really obviously defended each other.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341682' date='May 4 2008, 12.59']It's even possible that he's another innocent finder, after all our results don't contradict each other.[/quote]Interesting thought. Yes, they don't contradict.
Ok, people, let's calm for a while, we have a lot of time left. Let's do some rereads, it's always useful at this stage.
I am going to sleep now, please don't lynch me during next 12 hours. Bye.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Swyft' post='1341672' date='May 4 2008, 12.47']I don't suppose there's anything I can do to remedy this situation?

Besides stop posting one-liners, I mean.[/quote]

I'm thinking, I'm thinking.

I think I will go out and mow the lawn while I think.

Garner has backed off calling Mullendore a Symp. so I am trying to digest that as well. It seemed pretty clear to me that Garner and Mullendore were not on the same faction, yesterday.... My whole trust in Garner is starting to feel misplaced. I have a bit of a track record for doing that with at least one evil player in each game.

[House Tully]

I have to say, I forgot about Dondarions' vote restrictions. OK - off the hook for that one and I apologize.

[House Tully]

I need some help in putting together some puzzle pieces people.

Lots of finderesque roles out there and we had a discussion about what the wording of such results might be. We asked Footly
[quote name='House Footly' post='1335197' date='Apr 30 2008, 04.04']The message from the mods said that Moore was loyal to WJ Blackfyre, but my role says that the same thing would be said for a symp.[/quote]
So he says it's termed in loyal/not loyal.

Dondarrion agrees
[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1337998' date='May 1 2008, 13.29']My results just said he was disloyal to WJ. It didn't tell me the alignment name. I think that would be giving away too much information since there are multiple factions.[/quote]

Then we distance ourselves from these conversations and when Garner claims, she says this
[quote name='House Garner' post='1339911' date='May 2 2008, 13.23']Hello..
i'm the finder for the Blackfyre faction. I get a guilty result for people disloyal to Blackfyre, and innocent for loyals and symps. I don't get any information about precise roles.[/quote]

Then when Mal claimed, he used the same language (innocent/guilty)
[quote name='House Mullendore' post='1340315' date='May 2 2008, 19.21']I am not a guard.
I am finder.
Night 1, no investigation.
Night 2, Footly: guilty.
Night 3, Harclay: innocent.[/quote]

So what does this mean? I would assume that any finder type roles would use the same language.

And to confuse matters, after Aly's reveal unDon says
[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1340055' date='May 2 2008, 15.33']At this point, I see absolutely zero reason to not believe you. I thought you were innocent and I think your choices make sense.[/quote]

Which is odd in itself because the language she uses differ from the language he claimed to have received and should have at least sent up a small warning bell.

So let's fast forward to today when Don says this
[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1341606' date='May 4 2008, 07.45']Aly got a guilty on Royce and went after him the next day. I hate her N2 selection and I don't understand how she really chose Yarwyck so that's a point against her in my view. But still, she's been consistent with going after targets that she went after in game.[/quote]

So ... what changed your mind, Don?

And to clarify, when I said you blended into the woodworks, I meant that I was surprised at how high your post count was and that I could not remember any real stances you took except for the discussions about Royce. You have not taken any risks and your commentary is entirely reasonable without making waves. You are a bit short in some of your answers, but not offensively so - just business like. I'm not getting any emotion from any of your posts.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Vyrwel' post='1341722' date='May 4 2008, 13.01']Which is odd in itself because the language she uses differ from the language he claimed to have received and should have at least sent up a small warning bell.


So ... what changed your mind, Don?[/quote]

I am not a finder. I am more like a CF. I can't answer why WJ decided to use different language for the two different types of roles. So I see no reason to disagree because as a finder, she got different language.

When I said that her choices made sense (you'll see me arguing the opposite now) it was after a brief look to see if she was consistent (ie: her actions matched who she chose). Then I thought further on it and it didn't make sense in connection with her previous results while it did make sense with her in game actions.

[quote name='Vyrwel']And to clarify, when I said you blended into the woodworks, I meant that I was surprised at how high your post count was and that I could not remember any real stances you took except for the discussions about Royce. You have not taken any risks and your commentary is entirely reasonable without making waves. You are a bit short in some of your answers, but not offensively so - just business like. I'm not getting any emotion from any of your posts.[/quote]

I'm sorry? If you want to attack me, you'll get emotion. But there is no reason for me to get emotional when I'm posting my thoughts on what is going on.

[House Tully]

I would think that any finder type role would use the same language and even if for some reason they didn't, I would at least question it. Your non-questioning of Aly seems more like kissing up. You could have legitimately questioned Aly but chose not to - it still doesn't sit right with me and you can spin it anyway you want.

My feelings for you and Swyft are similar because there's not a lot of difference in your game play. I would much rather see you go today for the above reason.

I want to see if others can add any insight and see if I'm missing something.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='House Vyrwel' post='1341737' date='May 4 2008, 14.22']I want to see if others can add any insight and see if I'm missing something.[/quote]
I don't think the wording is a big deal. I mean, it's just words.