House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410231' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.30']If Librarian is the other symp, this post may prove to be informative.[/quote] I take it that your not supporting Greebo's theory that the Librarian is the obvious lynch for today. [quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410231' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.30']So my suspect list for Rincewind partners is Greebo, Gytha Ogg, Blind Io, and Cohen.[/quote] What do you make of Io's idea that Gytha Ogg doesn't make sense as Rincewind's partner because of her long term vote on him day 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 I reread the entire damn thread. I just don't think Libby is a FM. Why let a FM be friends with a Symp from the other team or an Innocent... it makes absolutely no sense. So he must be innocent or symp. I have ruled out Gytha as a FM master to Libby. Libby went after her hard Day 1. A FM would never go after a FM that hard, there is no point. That means if Libby is the symp, his master would be DoR or Cohen. He puts DoR in his Tier 1 suspect list (Gytha was there as well) in post [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28950&view=findpost&p=1408036"]571[/url]. I just can't think he'd put his Master in Tier 1. Cohen is a good match however. Libby mentions him very little. He mentions briefly that he suspects him in post [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28950&view=findpost&p=1405574"]200[/url] but "feels better" about him in post [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28950&view=findpost&p=1406284"]345[/url]. Other than that, the only other memorable mention is in 571 again, where he is at the back end of Tier 2, a placement easily moved down as the game progresses, but still close to the top if Libby is ever outed as symp. Team 1 - Kills nights 1 (Duckman) and 3 (Death) FM - Rincewind FM - Greebo Symp - Hogfather Team 2 - Kills night 2 (Offler) FM - Duckman FM - Cohen Symp - Libby But the point has been raised that there is nothing to say that Duckman and Rincewind couldn't be on the same team. If that is the case... Team 1 - Kills night 1 (Duckman) and 3 (Death) FM - Cohen FM - ??? (Greebo maybe - Libby did NOT like going after Greebo rather than Hogfather) Symp - Libby Team 2 - Kills night 2 (Offler) FM - Rincewind FM - Duckman Symp - Hogfather I personally like the first grouping better. So that makes my suspect list: Tier 1: Cohen, Greebo, Libby Tier 2: DoR Tier 3: Vimes, Gytha, Esme, Io Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [b]Cohen[/b] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Blind Io' post='1410238' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.40']But the point has been raised that there is nothing to say that Duckman and Rincewind couldn't be on the same team. If that is the case... Team 1 - Kills night 1 (Duckman) and 3 (Death) FM - Cohen FM - ??? (Greebo maybe - Libby did NOT like going after Greebo rather than Hogfather) Symp - Libby Team 2 - Kills night 2 (Offler) FM - Rincewind FM - Duckman Symp - Hogfather[/quote] This would mean that there would be no kill tonight, so at least we can test the theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [b]Cohen[/b] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Blind Io' post='1410239' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.41'][b]Cohen[/b][/quote] I don't mind Cohen as a lynch, but I really like [b]Greebo[/b] better. I know you think that Greebo is on his off night but there isn't a lot guaranteeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410244' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.47']I don't mind Cohen as a lynch, but I really like [b]Greebo[/b] better. I know you think that Greebo is on his off night but there isn't a lot guaranteeing it.[/quote] Then vote Cohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410242' date='Jun 22 2008, 07.44']This would mean that there would be no kill tonight, so at least we can test the theory.[/quote] True, but a FM team could also withhold their vote to make us think we have eliminated a team. Although it's unlikely because they only get to kill every other night. Unlikely, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 Going to go through each of the 4 suspected Rincewind partners, listing the pros and cons. Blind Io is first. [u]Points in favor of partnership[/u] 1) When Cohen votes for Rince on day 1, Io says - [quote name='Io']I am bothered by the fact that Cohen -- at just over 2 hours left to go -- felt the need to introduce a new suspect (Rincewind.) WTF? We have a player with 4 votes and a player with 3. I just don't get why you'd throw in a brand new name.[/quote] [quote name='Io']Suspect away. But I feel it's a little late to be adding bolded names to the list. We are down to 3 or 4 people at this point and to add others in doesn't help get a lynch. Now I could be wrong... maybe we are going to speedlynch Rince, I don't know. But I highly doubt it, so it seems like a wasted move by Cohen to me.[/quote] 2) On day 2, Rince is among the top 4 lynch candidates (with Luggagge, Death, and Offler) when Io says - [quote name='Io']Rincewind -- I don't think that he is SCD's partner, and I don't plan on voting for him as such. FM from the other team? Sure, maybe, I don't know, but not SCD's partner.[/quote] He also posts a longer analysis of why he doesn't think Rincewind can be SCD's partner in [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28950&view=findpost&p=1407211"]post 448[/url]. 3) On day 2, when the votes stand at 4 for Luggagge and 4 for Rincewind, Io votes for Luggagge. [u]Points against partnership[/u] 1) Librarian says that Hogfather wasn't symping Io. This is apparently derived from something Hogfather said in their secret forum. 2) The 1st point I raised in favor of a partnership could actually be seen as a point against an Io-Rincewind partnership, if you look at it another way. It could certainly be argued that Io snapping at Cohen for his vote on Rince would be too obvious of a defense for partner. And it would be odd timing for that type of defense.....Rincewind wasn't really in any danger of being lynched. 3) I tend to trust Io. Just my own personal read on him. Of all the possible Rincewind partners, I think his general behavior is the least suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Death of Rats' post='1410246' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.50']Then vote Cohen.[/quote] I will if that's where the consensus on the lynch seems to be. There is no reason to jump on it now. You seem [i]very[/i] keen to get this Cohen thing rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410252' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.53']I will if that's where the consensus on the lynch seems to be. There is no reason to jump on it now. You seem [i]very[/i] keen to get this Cohen thing rolling.[/quote] As I have iterated in [i]every FM team post[/i] I think he is evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410235' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.39']I take it that your not supporting Greebo's theory that the Librarian is the obvious lynch for today.[/quote] Correct. I'm hoping that the healer threat keeps you alive tonight, and that we get an investigation result on Librarian tomorrow. [quote]What do you make of Io's idea that Gytha Ogg doesn't make sense as Rincewind's partner because of her long term vote on him day 2?[/quote] I'm going through each of the possible Rincewind partners one by one. I'll make Gytha Ogg next. Here's the sneak preview - I don't think the vote takes her off the suspect list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 It is day 4. 8 players remain: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Greebo, Gytha Ogg, Stoneface Vimes, The Librarian. 5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night. 2 votes for Greebo (Cohen the Barbarian, Stoneface Vimes) 2 votes for Cohen the Barbarian (Blind Io, Death of Rats) 1 vote for The Librarian (Greebo) 3 players have not voted: Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Death of Rats' post='1410254' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.55']As I have iterated in [i]every FM team post[/i] I think he is evil.[/quote] That's fine, but you don't need to chivvy everyone onto the lynch right now. I have also had bad feelings about Cohen for a while and Io writes a pretty good case. I'm not opposing the lynch at all, but I have much more confidence in Greebo's guilt and I don't appreciate you telling me where to vote. ETA: repeated word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410255' date='Jun 22 2008, 01.58']I'm going through each of the possible Rincewind partners one by one. I'll make Gytha Ogg next. Here's the sneak preview - I don't think the vote takes her off the suspect list.[/quote] Great. I shall wait and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410226' date='Jun 22 2008, 07.05']Incidently, Io, what do you make of Greebo at the moment in terms of his links to the librarian. Do you think he's casting off a possibly compromised symp. He has to be doing something for your groupings to hold up.[/quote] If Greebo is the lone FM, then he is just trying to make sure he isn't the one lynched... If Libby is the other teams symp, well why not get rid of him... Libby looks pretty good for the job, and it saves Greebo from the lynch. [s]If Libby was his symp (and I don't think that is the case,) and he votes him out, there goes his voting block of 2. On the otherhand, getting rid of the symp gives the FM another day, and let's Greebo use the night kill tonight.[/s] Well, no... In my scenario if Libby is Greebo's symp (and I don't think that is the case,) then there is still another FM on the team alive as well. So killing Libby might not be considered too big of a loss. Of course at that time Greebo didn't realize that Cohen was a favorite to be lynched. edit grammar edit X2: rethinking my answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Blind Io' post='1410263' date='Jun 22 2008, 02.10']If Greebo is the lone FM, then he is just trying to make sure he isn't the one lynched... If Libby is the other teams symp, well why not get rid of him... Libby looks pretty good for the job, and it saves Greebo from the lynch. If Libby was his symp (and I don't think that is the case,) and he votes him out, there goes his voting block of 2. On the otherhand, getting rid of the symp gives the FM another day and I think Greebo gets the night kill tonight. edit grammar[/quote] Sorry, yeah I had your groups mixed up. For some reason I was thinking that you had Greebo and the Librarian in the same group. ETA: Not really related but it saves me starting another post. If the Librarian turns up as not-a-symp tomorrow then I don't mind the Death of Rats for the other Symp right at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 I [i]really[/i] want to stay up and read Esme's posts, but these late nights are getting to me. I'll be back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410266' date='Jun 22 2008, 02.21']ETA: Not really related but it saves me starting another post. If the Librarian turns up as not-a-symp tomorrow then I don't mind the Death of Rats for the other Symp right at this moment.[/quote] I invite you to investigate me to your heart's desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 [quote name='Death of Rats' post='1410271' date='Jun 22 2008, 02.32']I invite you to investigate me to your heart's desire.[/quote] If I survive two more nights and the Librarian is not a symp I very well might. I imagine that the odds of that are not great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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