AGOT Mafia 53.5 - The Ankh-Morpork City Watch Masquerade Ball

[House Dayne]

Gytha Ogg

[u]Points in favor of partnership[/u]

1) Her day 1 suspect list -

[quote name='Gytha']My summary is this:

Greebo and Offler are my top suspects followed closely by Ricewind and Cohen. In the middle I have Blind Io, Soul Cake Duck, Death of Rats, Hogfather and Luggage in that order. I have no read on Stone Face Vimes, Dibbler and Duckman. I don’t have any suspicions of Esme, Death and Librarian.

While I would prefer [b]Greebo[/b] or Offler, I would vote any but the last 3 to get a lynch.[/quote]

Rincewind is listed as a suspect, but he doesn't get her vote. Could easily be distancing. I would expect a FM in a CF game to place a partner either in the Rincewind/Cohen position of her list or in the 'middle' part of the list.


2) Blind Io yells at Cohen for voting Rincewind when he doesn't have any votes. DoR points out that I suspected Rincewind earlier. Nanny Ogg then feels it is necessary to remind us that she suspected Rincewind too -

[quote name='Gytha']I also have Rincewood #3 on my summary of suspects[/quote]

Not a huge point, but she could be attempting to reinforce the distancing.


3) Gytha votes for Rincewind near the start of day 2 -

[quote name='Gytha']Looking at this, there are 5 people that could possible be partnered with SCD.

1) Cohen: voted Rinsewind when he had no votes and SCD was at 3 and did not change until the 8th vote. I previously listed Cohen as my #4 suspect, so I don’t have a problem suspecting him as a partner for SCD.

2) Librarian: votes Offler when SCD has no more votes than Offler; When SCD’s votes get to 7, he asks DoR what he thinks of Offler, still trying to push that direction; Never actually votes for SCD. My main problem of course is that I had Libby as least likely to be guilty. I also think he is clever enough not to have made such a clumsy attempt to redirect the lynch. I still don’t think he is a likely killer, but rather be a leader than follower and wants to vote his suspects more than others.

3) Blind Io: Added the 6th vote which could be distancing. I really don’t have much more other than the fact that he was in the upper half of my suspicious list.
4) Death of Rats: 7th vote, could be distancing; suggested the reveal--might not have had time to talk privately to partner. I really am not convinced of this though. I still like DoR, but can’t say why so I still want to keep an eye on him.

5) Rinsewind: Puts the 3rd vote on Offler, bringing him even with SCD. This could have been a turning point…the vote could have gone either way at this point. This could be a subtle attempt to redirect the lynch away from SCD. Rinsewind was #3 on my suspicious list and I still feel that way. Placing the killing vote (which was an obvious cross post) is not in itself suspicious, but he seemed to want to make sure he was indeed part of the lynch (to distance?).

I’m going with [b]Rinsewind[/b] for now.[/quote]

This is the vote that some people are saying makes her an unlikely Rincewind partner. And I will bring it up in the 'points against' section. That said, I'm going to have to keep open the possibility that this too could be an attempt to create distance.

Gytha leaves 45 minutes after her vote for Rincewind. She says she will be gone for 9 hours. Meaning she is going to be back with 12 hours left in the day. Thats plenty of time to change her vote. The only way her vote was a big threat to Rincewind would be if her case led to him being lynched. But she wasn't pointing out anything new in her post, and wasn't really pushing others to vote for him. And she listed 4 other suspects along with him.

Basically, what I'm saying is that if the group turned on Rincewind while she was away, the best place for her to be would be among the first Rincewind voters. If things went another direction, or if it was a close race and she felt she could save him, then she could move her vote elsewhere. It was a win-win move....the only risk was if people voted for Rince as a result of her case/vote, but that didn't seem likely, given that she didn't put much into her case on him.


4) Blind Io argues against a Rincewind-SCD partnership, and Gytha agrees.

[quote name='Gytha']Good points. I just got to work where I had left my notes on this and I had actaully lined through Rincewind and put check marks on Cohen and Blind Io. I need to take another look at things as soon as I finish catching up.[/quote]


5) She leaves the thread when the vote count is 3 for Luggagge and 2 for Death, Offler, and Rincewind. There are 4 hours left in the day and she says she'll be gone for 2. When she comes back, it's now 6 votes for Luggagge and 4 for Rincewind. She moves her vote to Luggagge.

The main point here is that Luggagge was not her top suspect (wasn't even on her original list for possible SCD partners), but now she's willing to move over to him when Rincewind is still a viable option for the lynch.


[u]Points against partnership[/u]

1) For her to be a Rincewind partner, she would have had to engage in a lot of distancing. Listing Rincewind on her 2nd tier of suspects on day 1, voting for Rincewind on day 2, leaving her vote on Rincewind very late into day 2. Distancing is definitely possible in a CF game, but it all may add up to being too much.

2) The biggest point in her favor is that she actually went ahead and left the thread with 4 hours left, stating that she wouldn't be back until approximately 2 hours were left.....and she left her vote on Rincewind. He was only 1 of 4 lynch options at the time, and he only had 2 votes on him (including her own), but still....that would have been a somewhat risky move.


Hmm...I originally thought the vote wouldn't end up being a big point in her favor, but I didn't realize just how long she left it on Rincewind. I still think she's a possible partner, but I have to rank her below Io (not sure how she ranks compared to Greebo and Cohen yet).

[House Dayne]

While I was re-reading Gytha Ogg, I came across a post from Blind Io that was a longer analysis of why he felt Rincewind couldn't be partners with SCD (at a time when people were hunting SCD partners). I edited a link to that post into my Blind Io summary. Doesn't change anything, except to show that he went into a deeper analysis of the issue than previously indicated by the short quote I posted earlier.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410274' date='Jun 22 2008, 02.48']Hmm...I originally thought the vote wouldn't end up being a big point in her favor, but I didn't realize just how long she left it on Rincewind. I still think she's a possible partner, but I have to rank her below Io (not sure how she ranks compared to Greebo and Cohen yet).[/quote]

So you're thinking that the long vote on Rincewind speaks well in her favour. I'm not sure that Rincewind was ever threatened too much by her vote.

Who are doing next? I don't mind doing the other one, unless you specifically wanted to do these rereads yourself. I know it's a fair bit of reading, posting to get through.

[Lady Gaga]

Esme, my belief that Io isn't Hoggy's master is based solely on his on-thread comments. IIRC, he went after Io harshly on day 1, and it seemed like it wasn't just a symp clue, but he was ready to get Io lynched.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410276' date='Jun 22 2008, 02.59']So you're thinking that the long vote on Rincewind speaks well in her favour. I'm not sure that Rincewind was ever threatened too much by her vote.[/quote]

I agree that Rince wasn't threatened by her vote at any point when she was around in the thread. The issue I'm running into is that she left the thread with 4 hours left in the day, and she didn't think she'd be back until 2 hours were left, and yet she still left her vote on Rincewind. That's a bit risky.

There is one thing though....maybe she had committed to the plan of keeping her vote on Rincewind for distance no matter what, unless somebody else became a very viable alternative lynch option. Hmm....definitely not outside the realm of possibility.

[quote]Who are doing next? I don't mind doing the other one, unless you specifically wanted to do these rereads yourself. I know it's a fair bit of reading, posting to get through.[/quote]

I'll re-read Cohen. Would definitely appreciate it if you took on Greebo. I'm dead tired, up way later than I should be, and need to get some sleep soon.

[Lady Gaga]

OTOH, Cohen was mentioned several times in our secret cave. Week was planning on going after Cohen and Vimes today. I think that pretty much excludes Cohen from the group of possible Rincewind's partners.

Possibilities left for the partnership are just Gytha and Greebo IMO. I'll go and re-read Greebo and try to get a grip on him. When I return, I'll probably vote him over Cohen.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410278' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.06']I'm dead tired, up way later than I should be, and need to get some sleep soon.[/quote]

With this I'm going for the night if there are no questions for me.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410278' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.06']I'll re-read Cohen. Would definitely appreciate it if you took on Greebo. I'm dead tired, up way later than I should be, and need to get some sleep soon.[/quote]

I'll give Greebo a(nother) read then, unless the Librarian's comment changes your mind on doing Cohen.

I note that the Librarian is reading Greebo too.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Librarian' post='1410277' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.02']Esme, my belief that Io isn't Hoggy's master is based solely on his on-thread comments. IIRC, he went after Io harshly on day 1, and it seemed like it wasn't just a symp clue, but he was ready to get Io lynched.[/quote]

You're right. I had completely forgotten that he he had actually gone so far as to vote for Io. To me, that drops him to the bottom of the list. Symps rarely vote for their masters, even if it's early on day 1 and it's a weak case. In part because they don't want to risk that people follow them, and in part because they don't want the FM master to cross them off their 'possible symp' list and kill them.

I wish you had been around to answer that [i]before[/i] I spent an hour doing a Blind Io re-read. :(

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410281' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.11']I'll give Greebo a(nother) read then, unless the Librarian's comment changes your mind on doing Cohen.[/quote]

I'll go ahead and re-read Cohen, in spite of Librarian's comments.

[Lady Gaga]

This wasn't hard. Of all the Greebo's posts, he mentiones Rincewind only once, to say that Rincewind isn't SCD's partner. Since we were actively looking for SCD's partners at the moment, this could be seen as defense.

Rincewind gives no mention of [b]Greebo[/b] at all. I think it's safe to conclude that they're the most likely partners. If this isn't the case, Nanny Ogg is the only other possibility. I can think of one other banana pointing towards her-on day 1, she and SCD were my main suspects. Just as the day after, Week chose one suspect over the other, possibly trying to divert us from the Nanny. She is also a high poster, and since both the NKs of that team were low-posters....

I think we've got this team on the ropes.

[Lady Gaga]

As for the other team, it's certainly going to be harder. Duck man didn't leave any strong connections. No-one was symping him, and I'll go out of my way to say that I think that team's symp is already dead (Offler?). I can check on Ducky now, but I doubt there will be much information.

[House Westerling]

Alright. I think I've come to grips with Greebo and Rincewind and their interactions, and it is fairly curious.

The most telling point about Rincewind and Greebo is their lack on interaction. Greebo almost never mentions Rincewind. There were two or three posts during the great CF revelation, but next to nothing aside from that.

This is probably the most interesting post:
[quote name='Greebo']Ok, looks like SCD has been guilty. After all.

Since Rincewind is most likely not partnered to him, let's lynch someone who is not CF and a possible partner.[/quote]

It's weird for it's logical fallacy. It is the CF results which make Greebo say that it looks like SCD was guilty. Thing is that at that point we only had the first two results and they all said the same thing (SCD=innocent, DM=guilty) which told us almost nothing more than what we already thought (that one of them was probably guilty and the other not). This is the argument he uses to suggest that we not vote for Rincewind (oddly, his alternative suggestion is not the luggage, but Io, who really didn't look like getting lynched at all at that point). This does look like an FM defending his partner. The rest of it looks like an FM making sure there is absolutely no connection between them.

Rincewind never mentions Greebo once.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Librarian' post='1410293' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.40']This wasn't hard. Of all the Greebo's posts, he mentiones Rincewind only once, to say that Rincewind isn't SCD's partner. Since we were actively looking for SCD's partners at the moment, this could be seen as defense.

Rincewind gives no mention of [b]Greebo[/b] at all. I think it's safe to conclude that they're the most likely partners. If this isn't the case, Nanny Ogg is the only other possibility. I can think of one other banana pointing towards her-on day 1, she and SCD were my main suspects. Just as the day after, Week chose one suspect over the other, possibly trying to divert us from the Nanny. She is also a high poster, and since both the NKs of that team were low-posters....

I think we've got this team on the ropes.[/quote]

What do you think of Io's idea that it is better to go for the FM team that we think is going to kill tonight. I agree that Greebo is a more solid lynch, but it would be nice to halt the NK where it stands.

[House Dayne]

Cohen

[u]Points in favor of partnership[/u]

1) Cohen has a bunch of people he suspects on day 1. Rincewind only gets a passing mention by the middle of the day, in a post that mostly focuses on other people -
[quote name='Cohen']Offler and Rincewind are coming gradually onto suspect list for me too.[/quote]

2) With less than 3 hours left in day 1, the people with the most votes are SCD, Hogfather, Gytha Ogg, and Greebo. Cohen shows up and votes for Rincewind. It could be opportunistic distancing. Rincewind probably wasn't in any danger of being lynched at that time.

3) When questioned about his vote, he says he's willing to move it onto SCD. He also acknowledges that Rincewind countered his points fairly well.
[quote name='Cohen']I'm not averse to lynching Soul Cake Duck. Every new little argument they get into, they seem to come off worse. Of course that doesn't guararantee guilt by itself, but the inability to form and maintain a cohesive argument could indicate panic, so too a possible diversionary vote on Offler.

Nevertheless SCD is roughly 4th-5th only on my suspects. But top five out of everyone is fair game for a lynch, I suppose and if nothing better crops up then SCD will have to do.

Does anyone else find Rincewind suspicious though? I admit Rincy countered my points fairly well. But[/quote]

Should note that after the "but", he renews his attack on Rincewind. But Rince is still a very unlikely lynch at that point, so there is no risk if he is Rince's partner.

4) After a bit more pressure, he switches his vote to SCD, and says he will save Rincewind for day 2.

5) On day 2, he renews his case against Rincewind. But he doesn't cast a vote.


6) Later on day 2, he says this -
[quote name='Cohen']I still want to vote for Rincewind, but I shan't yet. A nice little mob is forming there, and I don't want it to get out of hand yet.

Now Luggage. I was very suspicious of Luggage in the first part of day 1. Luggage then remained quiet for a while, and votes started to add up on him. Then Death removed and Dibbler added. Rincewind meanwhile has started to gain a few votes; Death switched to Rincy, and then Luggage - who Death switched from - is voting Rincy too. Rincy is now most viable lynch person with most votes. For that alone, I mistrust Luggage, and I still haven't dispersed my earlier suspicions.[/quote]

A few things here. First, he supposedly wants to vote for Rincewind, but he won't because he doesn't want the mob to get out of hand yet. Definitely suspicious.

Second - his reason for suspecting Luggagge. I think he's saying that Luggagge's vote on Rincewind is opportunistic, because Luggagge is simply voting for the person who is garnering the most suspicion. Which is fine and all....but it seems strange that he is criticizing Luggagge for voting for the very person that he (Cohen) has supposedly been going after for much of the game. If he's so suspicious of Rincewind, shouldn't he acknowledge that other people might share those suspicions?


7) He votes for Luggagge. And he uses a pretty horrible reason to justify it.
[quote name='Cohen']Well, I'm leaning towards longtime top suspect Rincewind, but the problem with that for me is that there are very suspect people on it, whereas the only really dodgy person on Luggage is Dibbler, who is suspictious mainly for lack of decent contribution. The only non-dodgy voter on Rincewind is Oggy, and she's my most suspicious Tier 2 person, so that doesn't really help

What the hell, [b]Luggage.[/b]

Though I make it clear that were it not for those reasons I'd be voting Rincewind. And therefore I am willing to switch to guarantee a lynch, obviously, since it would be from 2nd suspect to 1st.[/quote]

So the only reason he voted for Luggagge over Rincewind is because he didn't trust the people voting for Rincewind? Why should that matter, if Rincewind is really his top suspect? Shouldn't concern over his [u]top suspect[/u] come before concern over other people who are voting for his top suspect? I would think so.

Also, he's hedging his bets and possibly maintaining distance by saying that Rincewind is still his top suspect and that he's quite willing to switch his vote over to Rince if needed.


8) Hogfather defends Cohen. When I attack him for his weak vote on Luggagge and his late CF reveal, Hogfather says -
[quote name='Hogfather']I agree with you here, that [weak vote on Luggagge] struck me as a bit odd as well. However,

I'll look back at his claim again but I don't agree with your assessment as to why it is suspect. There were already too many reveals for us to realistically lynch them all.[/quote]

I explain why I think the late CF claim was suspicious. He continues to defend Cohen -
[quote name='Hogfather']Symp I suppose, I don't see a FM making that move. Do you?

What benefit did his partner(s) think there was if he revealed now?[/quote]

[quote name='Hogfather']I can see an innocent one doing it for the reason Io mentioned maybe. They thought (wrongly) that revealing would help. Hm...

My issue, I suppose, is that an FM revealing now puts themselves into the spotlight. Somewhere that Cohen wasn't before.[/quote]

When I continue to press the issue, he gives a non-committal answer, turns things around on me, and then tries to change the subject -
[quote name='Hogfather']Ugh, I don't know. My brain is starting to hurt, you are probably right. Though I am starting to question the intelligence of my trust in you, I guess I need to reevaluate why you've earned it.

Anyways, random thought: is a tomato a vegetable or what is it?[/quote]

The whole sequence of events is very suspicious.


[u]Points against partnership[/u]

1) Honestly, the only thing I can think of right now is Librarian's claim that Hogfather planned to attack Cohen today. And I have to say, I don't see how that plan would fit with Hogfather's recent defense of Cohen in the thread.

After writing up all of this, I am definitely suspicious of Cohen as the 3rd member of the Hogfather - Rincewind team. The only problem is Librarian's claim that Hogfather wanted to go after Cohen today.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Librarian' post='1410293' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.40']This wasn't hard. Of all the Greebo's posts, he mentiones Rincewind only once, to say that Rincewind isn't SCD's partner. Since we were actively looking for SCD's partners at the moment, this could be seen as defense.

Rincewind gives no mention of [b]Greebo[/b] at all. I think it's safe to conclude that they're the most likely partners. If this isn't the case, Nanny Ogg is the only other possibility. I can think of one other banana pointing towards her-on day 1, she and SCD were my main suspects. Just as the day after, Week chose one suspect over the other, possibly trying to divert us from the Nanny. She is also a high poster, and since both the NKs of that team were low-posters....[/quote]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410295' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.52']Alright. I think I've come to grips with Greebo and Rincewind and their interactions, and it is fairly curious.

The most telling point about Rincewind and Greebo is their lack on interaction. Greebo almost never mentions Rincewind. There were two or three posts during the great CF revelation, but next to nothing aside from that.[/quote]

Okay. After going through all of that, I am going to have to concur that Greebo is Rincewind's most likely partner. There's apparently nothing pointing against it, and a few things lining up in favor of it.

I have to rate Cohen second. There's a lot pointing toward a possible partnership there. The only thing standing against it is Librarian's claim that Hogfather wanted to attack Cohen, which is not supported by evidence in the thread. I'm not saying Librarian is lying, but...I have to trust the evidence in front of me more than the secret information that he can't share with me.

Gytha Ogg would be third in my opinion.

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410300' date='Jun 22 2008, 10.58']What do you think of Io's idea that it is better to go for the FM team that we think is going to kill tonight. I agree that Greebo is a more solid lynch, but it would be nice to halt the NK where it stands.[/quote]
Well, I think there is less evidence pointing towards possible members of that team. After re-reading Duck man, the only person alive I'm pretty certain he's not partnered with is Nanny Ogg. You, I guess, are a CI from my point of view, so that leaves you out too. And, of course, I know I'm not his partner. We're still at 25% chance of hitting the bad guy from that team, as opposed to more than 50% if we lynch Greebo, since I find him more suspicious than the Nanny. Only other person alive who has had interaction with Duck Man is Esme, who has suspected him, but this could be just an early try at distancing and as such tells us nothing IMO.

I'll look at Esme's case on Cohen now, but I won't vote him. Week going after him proves his non-belonging to that team. We should lynch Greebo since he is the only person who can be on the both teams.

[House Westerling]

The only other thing to consider with Greebo is the Hogfather's interaction with him, which was also limited.

The Hogfather did post this toward the end of his life.

[quote name='hogfather']I was doing what I honestly felt was right at the time and today I was planning on moving forward from that because it seemed clear that the assumption I was working under was dead wrong (frown5.gif). Considering that, Rincewind was probably moving up to the top of the list with Death of Rats and maybe Greebo (Swann defense much?)[/quote]

I can't figure out if this is good or bad for Greebo. Would a simp connect his two masters this obviously. Or is he deliberately distancing from Greebo because he knows he (the hogfather) has been caught?

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410301' date='Jun 22 2008, 10.58'][u]Points against partnership[/u]

1) Honestly, the only thing I can think of right now is Librarian's claim that Hogfather planned to attack Cohen today. And I have to say, I don't see how that plan would fit with Hogfather's recent defense of Cohen in the thread.

After writing up all of this, I am definitely suspicious of Cohen as the 3rd member of the Hogfather - Rincewind team. The only problem is Librarian's claim that Hogfather wanted to go after Cohen today.[/quote]
If you are going to count Gytha's vote on Rince as a point against partnership, then you should do the same to Cohen, since his Day 1 vote on Rincewind was the first thing that brought Rince out in the spotlight.

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410308' date='Jun 22 2008, 11.12']I can't figure out if this is good or bad for Greebo. Would a simp connect his two masters this obviously. Or is he deliberately distancing from Greebo because he knows he (the hogfather) has been caught?[/quote]
Probably distancing, I'd say. I can't take anything Hogfather said after you revealed as evidence, no matter how weak.

I'll now point out another interesting banana connecting Hoggy with Greebo.