Mafia 57: The stowaways

[House Targaryen]

It is day 5.

5 players remain: Botley, Drumm, Farwynd, Kenning, Myre.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Farwynd (Myre, Botley)
1 vote for Drumm (Kenning)
1 vote for Kenning (Drumm)

1 player has not voted: Farwynd.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Myre' post='1522597' date='Sep 18 2008, 01.36']Okay, so you're saying Volmark would be a ninja in that scenario. He was alive heading into night 3. Why couldn't any of those 3 kills have been done by him? Am I missing something here?[/quote]I've thought about this. Yes, you are right, Volmark could kill Stoney and/or Goodbrother. But this still leaves question unanswered: if I am a vamp, for what hell I killed Volmark instead of Botley? Volmark was my friend at that moment. Botley was my principal adversay and CI. Such choice is absolutely senseless. No. I admit I can be a ninja, but no way a vamp.

And Drumm is now PI. If he was guilty, he had excellent excuse for finishing me, especially after I voted him. Still he let me live. Only uber-extremely daring killer would do this.
So, from my PoV, the game is solved, last guilties are Myre and/or Kenning.

[quote]Myre needs to be put under pressure[/quote]No problem.
[b]Myre[/b]. At the beginning of the game we gave you a free pass because you played key role in finding Orkwood. Ok. Usually FMs don't help innocent to find a member of opposite team, but now you seem to be pleasant exception.

[House Connington]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522596' date='Sep 18 2008, 01.33']Ok. I have to admit you are innocent, so [b]remove vote[/b].[/quote]
It's foolish to assume so. It may seem not to make sense for Drumm to act this way if he's a lone FM, but he looks pretty bad and desperately needs to improve his position. So, it's not at all an unusual type of stunt if he's a lone FM.

However, if he was partnered with Myre, he would have just went for Farwynd and won the game. So, from my POV, the only possible FM team alive is Drumm/Farwynd. Meaning, I could vote Farwynd now to play it safe. But I suspect Drumm a lot more than I suspect Farwynd.

[House Connington]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522630' date='Sep 18 2008, 02.47']I've thought about this. Yes, you are right, Volmark could kill Stoney and/or Goodbrother. But this still leaves question unanswered: if I am a vamp, for what hell I killed Volmark instead of Botley? Volmark was my friend at that moment. Botley was my principal adversay and CI. Such choice is absolutely senseless. No. I admit I can be a ninja, but no way a vamp.[/quote]
But Botley was probably healed by Stonetree. For all we know, you could have gone for him, and got blocked.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Kenning' post='1522632' date='Sep 18 2008, 02.51']But Botley was probably healed by Stonetree. For all we know, you could have gone for him, and got blocked.[/quote]But, still, why would I kill Volmark? There is nothing better is this game than having strong loud player who trusts you.

[House Connington]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522645' date='Sep 18 2008, 02.16']But, still, why would I kill Volmark? There is nothing better is this game than having strong loud player who trusts you.[/quote]
Volmark could have been innocent and killed by the other team.

[House Connington]

Anyway, I'm off. Back in 4 hours or so.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Kenning' post='1522651' date='Sep 18 2008, 03.22']Volmark could have been innocent and killed by the other team.[/quote]We discussed scenario where the other team is already eliminated. None of dead palyers except Volmark might be Orkwood's partner.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 5.

5 players remain: Botley, Drumm, Farwynd, Kenning, Myre.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Farwynd (Myre, Botley)
1 vote for Drumm (Kenning)
1 vote for Kenning (Drumm)
1 vote for Myre (Farwynd)

[House Ashford]

Those votes by Farwynd and Drumm on Myre and Kenning seemed very odd indeed. I think they are both FM, possibly on the same team, which is why Drumm didn't hammer Farwynd. Have there been any good cases for that? I'll make one for the last page or so.

Farwynd voted Drumm, bringing it up to 2 votes. If they're partners, that's a risky maneuver. However, maybe Farwynd was trusting that people would think for a while before voting. Still though, that makes it look like they weren't partners. He did remove the vote later though.

I have a new conjecture.

[quote]And Drumm is now PI. If he was guilty, he had excellent excuse for finishing me, especially after I voted him. Still he let me live. Only uber-extremely daring killer would do this.[/quote]
Not if they thought you were innocent, and thought it would be better for them to lynch someone else. Or maybe they thought you were guilty, and wanted to let you get a night kill before they killed you.

My vote stays where it is.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522565' date='Sep 17 2008, 23.58']I could critisize Botley's computations and show you all the mistake he made, but I think it is exactly what a guilty would do at my place: to flood with irrelevant details.

Botley, we should rely on mathematics here. It's same as evaluating probability of meeting a dinosaur on broadway as 50%: either yes or no. We know some things about Merlyn and Volmark; not much, but enough to say that probability of Merlyn being evil is higher than 50% and probability of Volmark guilt is less.

I might agree that if there is team of two evil player, I am probable memeber of this. so, yeah, in this sense lynching me is safe play. It's very hard to argue against it. But I don't believe such team exists.

I don't want to write very long post because I know Drumm might finish me in any moment and I might have to delete it. Botley, Myre, please let me live for a little while.[/quote]
Please point out my error so I can correct it.

And yes, I know that Merlyn and Volmark aren't strictly 50% chance to be FM. I just made it 50% to make things easier. IMO it's fairly close.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1522760' date='Sep 18 2008, 07.51']Not if they thought you were innocent, and thought it would be better for them to lynch someone else. Or maybe they thought you were guilty, and wanted to let you get a night kill before they killed you.[/quote]A person who is one vote from noose (and Druum was) won't choose whome to lynch instead.

However, now I think most probable scenario is that both Merlyn and Volmark were guilty and we have only one killer left, likely Myre. If so, we can afforf two innocent lynchs without losing. So, I won't strongly fight for my life. Vote me out if you wish, but don't go after Drumm when I'll turn up innocent. That's my last will.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522579' date='Sep 18 2008, 00.17']... So telling why I am sure that there is no 2-person team left seem fruitless.[/quote]
Tell me! My mind is changeable, and I'm partially basing my vote on Myre's logic. So if you can prove him wrong, do so.

This seems similar to "your math is wrong, but I won't say why". It sounds like you're an FM who is trying to convince people that they're wrong without actually giving any evidence, because there is none. So please, explain these things and prove me wrong.

Also, you voted Myre to put him under pressure. Why? He's not really under pressure. Sure, he dies in 2 more votes. But nobody is going to vote for him. Maybe you knew that.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522785' date='Sep 18 2008, 07.17']A person who is one vote from noose (and Druum was) won't choose whome to lynch instead.

However, now I think most probable scenario is that both Merlyn and Volmark were guilty and we have only one killer left, likely Myre. If so, we can afforf two innocent lynchs without losing. So, I won't strongly fight for my life. Vote me out if you wish, but don't go after Drumm when I'll turn up innocent. That's my last will.[/quote]
Why do you think Myre is guilty? You appear to have no real reason for it.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1522776' date='Sep 18 2008, 08.12']Please point out my error so I can correct it.[/quote]
After the game, perhaps.
[quote]And yes, I know that Merlyn and Volmark aren't strictly 50% chance to be FM. I just made it 50% to make things easier. IMO it's fairly close.[/quote]If you ignore in-game information, they both are (4-1)/(13-8)=60% chance of being FM.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522796' date='Sep 18 2008, 07.26']After the game, perhaps.[/quote]
Now would also work. EDIT: Why can't you just answer me now? As it is, you're making yourself look guilty by answering some things and not others.
[quote]If you ignore in-game information, they both are (4-1)/(13-8)=60% chance of being FM.[/quote]
13 - 8? Which 8? Wouldn't it be 13 - 5, there being 5 CIs/VPIs? (me, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Wynch, Saltcliffe)

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1522787' date='Sep 18 2008, 08.19']Tell me! My mind is changeable, and I'm partially basing my vote on Myre's logic. So if you can prove him wrong, do so.[/quote]
I already talked about this, but I can talk more.
Myre didn't make any reasoning which can be proven wrong. He made no statement. He doesn't state 2-person team exist. He just says it [i]might[/i] exists and wants to play safely because of this, purely theoretical possibility.
But might it be?
Farwynd-Drumm - impossible, since I put second vote on Drumm.
Farwynd-Kenning - impossible, since Kenning very definitely stated he trusts me.
Myre-Kenning - impossible, since Myre also very definitely stated he trusts Kenning.
Farwynd-Myre - impossible, since Myre put second vote on me.
Kenning-Drumm - impossible, because of today Kenning's eleplant case.
Myre-Drumm... ok, this seems possbile. But note I am not a member of this equation.

[quote]Also, you voted Myre to put him under pressure. Why?[/quote]I voted him because I want to lynch him now. Luckily, it coincided with Kenning's wish to put him under pressure, but it is very serious. Why? By method of exception. As I said, I count Drumm as PI. And I agree with opinion (don't remeber whose) that guilty won't make that elephant case of Kenning. This leaves Myre only. And - speakling of the safety - he is a member of only possible pairing.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522785' date='Sep 18 2008, 07.17']And Drumm is now PI.[/quote]

So you have made Drumm PI. I can understand your argument, even while I recognize a major reason to doubt it.

[u]The reality is, you and Drumm can still be partners.[/u] Its true that you put him at 2 votes. But you didn't do it until [u]after[/u] I had committed to voting for you, and said I was unable to change my vote. And you did it during a time period when Botley had said he would be away from the computer for a long time.

So there was never any chance of Drumm being lynched. You voted for him to put him 1 vote away from a lynch....and then you removed your vote 1 hour later. He was only at risk for 1 hour, and the risk was never real, because you had strong reasons to believe that neither Botley or I would change vote during that time. It [u]could[/u] be a very bold attempt at distancing by FM partners.

Also, add in the fact that Drumm refused to hammer you, and it looks suspicious..

I'm not saying you are definitely partners. Just that it is still quite possible, in spite of your vote for him. And Drumm is therefore not PI.

[quote name='Farwynd']However, now I think most probable scenario is that both Merlyn and Volmark were guilty and we have only one killer left, likely Myre.[/quote]

I'm curious why you chose me over Kenning. You didn't provide a reason, as far as I can tell.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1522820' date='Sep 18 2008, 07.43']Farwynd-Drumm - impossible, since I put second vote on Drumm.[/quote]

I just explained why that pairing is still possible.

[quote name='Farwynd']Farwynd-Kenning - impossible, since Kenning very definitely stated he trusts me.[/quote]

Sometimes, people don't do what is expected. You can't completely eliminate a pairing based off of that. You can doubt it, but you can't eliminate it.

[quote name='Farwynd']And I agree with opinion (don't remeber whose) that guilty won't make that elephant case of Kenning.[/quote]

That was my comment.

[quote name='Farwynd']This leaves Myre only. And - speakling of the safety - he is a member of only possible pairing.[/quote]

That pairing being Myre - Drumm? Umm....did you forget that you just declared Drumm to be PI? Conveniently slip your mind?

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1522801' date='Sep 18 2008, 08.31']Now would also work. EDIT: Why can't you just answer me now?[/quote]
Because it's hightly irrelevant and confusing. Even if your numbers were right, your desire to bring theory of probabilities here isn't justified.
[quote]13 - 8? Which 8? Wouldn't it be 13 - 5, there being 5 CIs/VPIs? (me, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Wynch, Saltcliffe)[/quote]Oh, sorry, it should be 13-4. There are 8 dead players, alignment of 4 we know for sure. So, 3/9=33%. Innocence of you, Goodbrother and Stonetree is in-game information.