Mafia 57.5

[House Mooton]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1537829' date='Sep 30 2008, 16.23']I personally liked yesterdays Stonetree better than todays. He looks somehow spacy today. It could be that he is an lazy FM who is waiting for an opportunity.[/quote]

Nope, I just don't have a lot of time, and apparently recently that's a sign of guilt. (Rant on this after the game...I promise it's coming because I'm fucking sick of this being reasoning.)

I still suspect you, Merlyn, and everyone's going to say it's because there aren't many people left to suspect--but you could easily be partnered with Sunderly (distancing aside), Botley, or potentially Orkwood. I'm absolutely not ruling that last one out. I want to vote for you, but I need to go see if it's possible for Farwynd and Sunderly to be partnered first. :P

[House Mooton]

I dunno...Farwynd and Sunderly pretty much ignore each other. Sunderly puts Farwynd on the 'potentially guilty, but will vote for Stonetree or Orkwood first' category, while Farwynd is focused too much on Orkwood and Merlyn to even mention Sunderly.

I'm not going to vote yet because of the possibility of Farwynd pulling the wool over my eyes, so here's some more questions:

Farwynd: You haven't mentioned Sunderly at all yet. What gives? Do you just consider him so innocent he doesn't warrant a mention? Do you have an opinion on him now that he has to be a suspect by virtue of not being cleared by the finder? What do you think about the possibility of a Sunderly/Merlyn partnership?

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1538198' date='Oct 1 2008, 02.12']I dunno...Farwynd and Sunderly pretty much ignore each other. Sunderly puts Farwynd on the 'potentially guilty, but will vote for Stonetree or Orkwood first' category, while Farwynd is focused too much on Orkwood and Merlyn to even mention Sunderly.

I'm not going to vote yet because of the possibility of Farwynd pulling the wool over my eyes, so here's some more questions:

Farwynd: You haven't mentioned Sunderly at all yet. What gives? Do you just consider him so innocent he doesn't warrant a mention? Do you have an opinion on him now that he has to be a suspect by virtue of not being cleared by the finder? What do you think about the possibility of a Sunderly/Merlyn partnership?[/quote]

Actually I have:
[quote name='Farwynd']These 4 players are Merlyn, Orkwood, Stonetree and Sunderly. Of these four the one I trust most is Sunderly. I agreed with his stance on Botley and when he was attacked yesterday by Orkwood and Stonetree I also found myself agreeing with his answers.

So lets turn our attention to the other three players, as I’m sure FM can be found there.[/quote]

Of course I mention him to say I trust him, so that's not really likely to dispel any partnership suspicions you may harbor. Another point is looking for possible Sunderly partners, obviously not Botley, Orkwood unlikely, Stonetree unlikely, know myself to be innocent and trust Saltcliffe because of Wynch... that leaves Merlyn. Sunderly-Merlyn? I'd much sooner believe Merlyn-Botley or Stonetree-Orkwood.

I'll have a look at Sunderly today just in case, but I'll probably end up voting for one of Merlyn or yourself, I'm afraid.

Anyway, I'm rather busy now, so I'll leave my personal veredict until this afternoon when I have time to give things a better look. I can answer short questions though.

[House Clegane]

Good morning folks, :cheers:

good night Wynch! :(


[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1538194' date='Oct 1 2008, 02.02']Nope, I just don't have a lot of time, and apparently recently that's a sign of guilt. (Rant on this after the game...I promise it's coming because I'm fucking sick of this being reasoning.)

I still suspect you, Merlyn, and everyone's going to say it's because there aren't many people left to suspect--but you could easily be partnered with Sunderly (distancing aside), Botley, or potentially Orkwood. I'm absolutely not ruling that last one out. I want to vote for you, but I need to go see if it's possible for Farwynd and Sunderly to be partnered first. :P[/quote]

I don't like this post, especially your reasoning in the first paragraph. I never said that I suspected you because you had only written a few posts, but that I found you a bit disorientated on day 2.

More after my breakfast.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1538194' date='Oct 1 2008, 02.02']Nope, I just don't have a lot of time, and apparently recently that's a sign of guilt. (Rant on this after the game...I promise it's coming because I'm fucking sick of this being reasoning.)[/quote]
Dude, you have 10 posts at the beginning of day 3. How are we supposed to know what you are thinking or eliminate you from potential partnerships? If you aren't an FM you are a roleless innocent. That means your job is to try and find the baddies, look innocent, and frankly just play the game. You've done none of these, so there is no reason for us to think you are innocent. Please, spare the righteous anger and look objectively at what you've done (or not done) this game. We've all had this discussion before, not everyone needs to post like I am. Look at someone like Sunderly, they haven't been going crazy posting and I think I know where they are coming from most of the time (maybe they are just a clever evil, *shrugs*). With you, I have no idea and that's the problem.

[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1538194' date='Oct 1 2008, 02.02']I still suspect you, Merlyn, and everyone's going to say it's because there aren't many people left to suspect--but you could easily be partnered with Sunderly (distancing aside), Botley, or potentially Orkwood. I'm absolutely not ruling that last one out. I want to vote for you, but I need to go see if it's possible for Farwynd and Sunderly to be partnered first. :P[/quote] Looking for partners is the name of the game right now because if there are two FM, we are at endgame. Our next lynch needs to be someone with open connections and that has been suspicious. Despite Sunderly being the only one that can't be connected to the deader, I'm not sure he is the right choice for today. It will likely be Stonetree or Farwynd. Potentially Merlyn. I'll put some stuff together soon.

[House Frey]

Merlyn, you've done far less this game then I realized. In looking back, you pretty much A) interacted positively with me and B) Pushed Orkwood. You really haven't done much else, so I think I need to consider you more for lynch today.
[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1536198' date='Sep 29 2008, 18.12']I didn't know that you were an FM, nor do I know now. But you were using that kind of behaviour that FM sometimes use to stay under radar.

Anyway, your last posts make me feel a bit better, while I am feeling a bit worse for Wynch and Ser Spidey.

I have better impressions of Stonetree, who is making an effort to finally get a grip.

Saltcliffe might be an FM who chose the leader route, but is more likely an aggressive innocent.

I don't like how Farwynd tried to bury his case on Greyjoy - I still like it. I like his reaction to Saltcliffe's accusations though.

I also like how Botley hopped on the case.

I hate Greyjoy.

I have a 'fuzzy warm feeling' about Sunderly. Looks like an eager innocent to me.[/quote]
There are a few things I would like explanation about here...I don't understand why you continue to wonder why Farwynd is burying his case on Greyjoy when it was very clear at this point it was a joke. That isn't burying a case, there never was one (if there was it was fake-distancing between Greyjoy and Farwynd, which would be a strange thing to do here).

What did you like about how Botley hopped on the Greyjoy case? In hindsight, I really don't like here how much of what you are saying is tunnelvisioned on Greyjoy. Between this and your lack of play recently, I'm not feeling very good about you.

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1537829' date='Sep 30 2008, 19.23']Okay folks, I skimmed the thread and I still have to sort all the things that have happened. I also have to make a day 1 reread yet.

Not sure about that Orkwood case. While I like the arguments, I am also considering his reactions as genuinely pissed. Have to reread him again, apparently.

I am more worried about Sunderly's behaviour. Mainly because he has avoided to piss in the shoes of the big boys so far. Have to reread him again.

I personally liked yesterdays Stonetree better than todays. He looks somehow spacy today. It could be that he is an lazy FM who is waiting for an opportunity.

Leaves Farwynd. Has played a solid game so far, but he has been acting very carefully IMO despite his aggressiveness. If he is an FM, I wonder if we are able to lynch him. I will look for some possible connections. It really sucks that there is no CF to make a deeper analysis.


Ok, these are my first impressions. I will hopefully be able to post some more stuff on orkwood and Sunderly before I go to bed, since these two are apparently todays choices.[/quote]
Nice that Merlyn describes Sunderly's behavior the exact same way as his own. Wishy-washy on Stonetree and defends Farwynd. Merlyn, why did you wonder if we'd be able to lynch Farwynd?

[House Frey]

Very lazy reread of Farwynd:
Starts off with their 'elaborate joke vote'.
I question the joke vote because frankly, it was delivered a bit to seriously to be completely a joke which is odd.
Farwynd thinks Merlyn and I are useless and votes Merlyn.
Farwynd is somewhat suspicious of Stonetree (and still of Merlyn), yet is sidetracked by Orkwood. Suggests a Orkwood-Stonetree partnership as a possibility.
Finally, they are called out for not mentioning Sunderly and will now reread Sunderly, but will likely vote Stonetree or Merlyn.

Not a lot to go on here, seems to be pretty consistent in their thoughts and consistent in the scarcity of them.

[House Frey]

I want to hear some from Merlyn (and others of course)...I think I know where my vote is going today and I'll probably cast it soon because my frustration with this game is mounting.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1538236' date='Oct 1 2008, 03.29']More after my breakfast.[/quote]
Long ass breakfast.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1538309' date='Oct 1 2008, 07.03']Long ass breakfast.[/quote]
[i]
Sorry, I got some unexpected stuff to do. Should be available in an hour.[/i]

[House Stokeworth]

Arg! I swear I posted before I went to bed last night. :bang: I had looked at Merlyn and the one thing I noticed was that he was interacting more with Saltcliffethan anyone else. Replying to him, agreeing with him, and such. Really in my opinion, kind of sucking up to him. Not sure if it means anything other than Saltcliffe has the most posts, but I did find it interestsing.

[House Clegane]

I will have a look at the vote counts first. This will be tough, since we don't have a CF. This is why I have to make some compromises. The main compromise is that I will base my analysis on the assumption that Botley was innocent.

Why? Because I don't think that any FM would dare to post only three times on day 1. It might happen, but it is very unlikely IMO, so I count Botley as innocent.

Orkwood is much harder to handle. He could be guilty or innocent, so I have to check both scenarios. Ok, let's start with the numbers:



[u]SCENARIO A: Botley and Orkwood are both innocent[/u]

[quote]5 votes for Botley ([color="#2E8B57"]Wynch[/color], [color="#2E8B57"]Saltcliffe[/color], Sunderly, [color="#2E8B57"]Greyjoy[/color], Farwynd)
2 votes for Greyjoy (Merlyn, [color="#2E8B57"]Botley[/color])
1 vote for Farwynd ([color="#2E8B57"]Orkwood[/color])
1 vote for Saltcliffe (Stonetree)[/quote]


Experience of numerous mafia games teaches us that there is at least one FM on the lynchmob. Since this game has no CF, it is even more likely than in a usual mafia game.

This means that one of Sunderly and Farwynd is an FM.

Btw, if Botley was against all odds guilty his partner would be Stonetree (or me, from your POV).





[quote]4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

4 votes for Orkwood (Sunderly, Farwynd, Merlyn, [color="#2E8B57"]Wynch[/color])
1 vote for Sunderly ([color="#2E8B57"]Orkwood[/color])

2 players have not voted: [color="#2E8B57"]Saltcliffe[/color], Stonetree.[/quote]



Again we have Sunderly and Farwynd on the mob, while Stonetree is absent.


The main question in this scenario is: would the FM split their votes or would they be bold enough to hop both on the mob? If it's the former, than Stonetree looks damn guilty to me.




Edit: put the paragraphes in the right places and put the vote counts in a quote for clarification

[House Clegane]

[u]SCENARIO B:
[/u]

Botley is innocent and Orkwood is guilty


[quote]5 votes for Botley ([color="#2E8B57"]Wynch[/color], [color="#2E8B57"]Saltcliffe[/color], Sunderly, [color="#2E8B57"]Greyjoy[/color], Farwynd)
2 votes for Greyjoy (Merlyn, [color="#2E8B57"]Botley[/color])
1 vote for Farwynd ([color="#FF0000"]Orkwood[/color])
1 vote for Saltcliffe (Stonetree)[/quote]

Not much to learn from this. The only thing worth to mention is that Farwynd and Sunderly could be the FM sitting in the lynch train.



[quote]4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

4 votes for Orkwood (Sunderly, Farwynd, Merlyn, [color="#2E8B57"]Wynch[/color])
1 vote for Sunderly ([color="#FF0000"]Orkwood[/color])

2 players have not voted: [color="#2E8B57"]Saltcliffe[/color], Stonetree.[/quote]


Sunderly is obviously not partnered with Orkwood. Farwynd is also a less likely alternative than Stonetree (or me), but he could be an FM who was trying to ditsnce from his partner. SInce we have no CI, it probbaly was not neccesary, but the common opinion was against Orkwood, so he might have tried to blend into the crowd.


All in all, Stonetree and me look like the most likely partners to Orkwood, although we both haven't been on Botley's mob.

[House Clegane]

All right, I have to check a possible Stonetree/Farwynd FM team yet. If Sunderly is an FM, his partner is one of these two. If Orkwood was an FM, his partner is one of these two. Even if they're not partnered, we have a 50:50 chance to get an FM by lynching one of these two.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Sunderly' post='1538352' date='Oct 1 2008, 08.18']Arg! I swear I posted before I went to bed last night. :bang: I had looked at Merlyn and the one thing I noticed was that he was interacting more with Saltcliffethan anyone else. Replying to him, agreeing with him, and such. Really in my opinion, kind of sucking up to him. Not sure if it means anything other than Saltcliffe has the most posts, but I did find it interestsing.[/quote]
I remember you saying something like that, so I really noticed it while I was rereading.

By the way Stonetree, here is another reason why your inactivity makes you look guilty (or at least not innocent):
Day 1:
1 vote for Saltcliffe (Stonetree)
Day 2:
2 players have not voted: Saltcliffe, Stonetree.

[House Clegane]

I checked the interaction between Stonetree and Farwynd. Unfortunatly, both appeared last on day 1. I also tried to look for possible connections to Orkwood.

Stonetree is gone again for a while. Farwynd starts to participate. There is some RP interaction with Orkwood. A remarkable post is this one here:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1535088' date='Sep 29 2008, 08.34']Damn man, we could partners too, you came in and claimed that Greyjoy was distancing himself from his partner so you voted for him then I came in claimed you were his partner and voted for you, while I could be distancing myself from you!
You see that was a genius strategy before I blew it by this post :D[/quote]

Would an FM talk to his partner like that in the thread?


Orkwood voted Farwynd before that.


Interestingly Farwynd did not once mention the case that I made against Orkwood. He turned against me, but not for suspecting Orkwood, but for [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31189&view=findpost&p=1535386"]appearing helpful[/url]. Could be a subtle defense of Orkwood.


Farwynd has in the meanwhile a dispute with Saltcliffe about the meaning and sense of elaborate joke votes.


Stonetree returns and has some questions for Farwynd, Sunderly and me - all today's remaining suspects. So if Stonetree is guilty, who is his partner? Orkwood? Or did he try to distance? There's also a subtle defense of Orkwood in that post.

The question to Farwynd:

[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1535596' date='Sep 29 2008, 13.52']2) Farwynd- What's wrong with your sense of joking? Your sarcasm is a bit too subtle for everyone, it seems, with regard to voting for Greyjoy for removing a vote on his partner. Greyjoy was so forgettable that everyone forgot who he was voting for in the first place, so your "joke" fell flat. So, since I find it so hard to tell the difference between your sarcasm and non-sarcasm, do you actually think Saltcliffe and Merlyn are acting useless and spewing out a bunch of obvious statements hoping we would think they were contributing...or was that not serious either?[/quote]

And Farwynd's answer:

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1535652' date='Sep 29 2008, 14.28']Well, you could have looked back to see who I was accusing Greyjoy of being partnered with, but whatever. So I'm not funny. Sue me.

Merlyn yes (or enough for a day one vote at any rate), Saltcliffe less so in general (though the post Merlyn was quoting was pretty much an "obvious statement" of the kind that tend to appear phony to me). I guess it's the kind of thing which one might grant a pass on day one if he felt so inclined, but as it happens I didn't.

I'll go have a look what's up with Botley and Greyjoy (I hope it isn't my "case").[/quote]

Stonetree then introduces the idea of a Merlyn/Sunderly partnership without explaining his reasoning.

Farwynd complains that no one followed his Merlyn vote, while he never did anything to increase the pressure himself. Interesting. He changes his vote to Botley and day 1 is over. I think I am not the only one who had the impression that Farwynd wanted to be on that mob - perhaps a sign that his partner was not yet on it (in case that Farwynd is an FM).


Conclusion after day 1:


Litte interaction between Farwynd and Stonetree. Stonetree asks a question, Farwynd answers, end of the story.

Little interaction between Orkwood and Farwynd. Orkwood voted for Farwynd, but never seriously pushed a lynch. Farwynd never commented my case on Orkwood, even though I was his main suspect. Strange.

Interaction between Stonetree and Orkwood: zero. Stonetree mentions Orkwood once when she* interrogates me, defending Orkwood there.



Day 2 follows next.


* edit: no, we are no partners. I think I altguessed Stoney.

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1538669' date='Oct 1 2008, 11.49']I remember you saying something like that, so I really noticed it while I was rereading.[/quote]

I had another post as well. I may have shut down before it posted. No matter it was a lame post about how one or two of Farwynd, Merlyn and Stonetree are the bad guys, looking for partners, blah blah blah, and I thought the sucking up of Merlyn, but that may have been an earlier post.

Anyway, the main problem I have with Merlyn's analys is he is kind of in my top spot right now.

I am bothered my his play. I need to get somethings that I noticed last night to back up the reasons for this.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Sunderly' post='1538701' date='Oct 1 2008, 12.05']I had another post as well. I may have shut down before it posted. No matter it was a lame post about how one or two of Farwynd, Merlyn and Stonetree are the bad guys, looking for partners, blah blah blah, and I thought the sucking up of Merlyn, but that may have been an earlier post.

Anyway, the main problem I have with Merlyn's analys is he is kind of in my top spot right now.

I am bothered my his play. I need to get somethings that I noticed last night to back up the reasons for this.[/quote]
I am pretty much in agreement here. Merlyn's analysis is the same as his early posting. It all looks nice, but it is lacking significant substance or conclusions. That's not to say I don't appreciate it, I do because it is making me think more.

I wish I wasn't entirely sure I am going to die tonight, I was going to try and pretend I didn't trust you in hopes that I'd somehow get passed over...it just isn't worth it though. At this point in my analysis, I have you down as an innocent. If you are guilty, good job. Unfortunately, it doesn't really make things clearer in terms of Farwynd-Merlyn-Stonetree connections. Stonetree's post with 'hard questions' from Day 1 gives me pause because it is interesting that Farwynd and Merlyn are two that questions are posed to. Hm, the only partnership that is impossible among those 3 is Farwynd-Merlyn from day 1 IMO. My gut right now is that Farwynd should be lynched today and Merlyn tomorrow.

[House Frey]

In the future, I am not going to vote off deadly silent people day 1 in games without a CF. Pain in the ass. Frankly, the whole no CF thing kind of blows (still love the mods though :)).

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1538296' date='Oct 1 2008, 06.17']Very lazy reread of Farwynd:
Starts off with their 'elaborate joke vote'.
I question the joke vote because frankly, it was delivered a bit to seriously to be completely a joke which is odd.
Farwynd thinks Merlyn and I are useless and votes Merlyn.
Farwynd is somewhat suspicious of Stonetree (and still of Merlyn), yet is sidetracked by Orkwood. Suggests a Orkwood-Stonetree partnership as a possibility.
Finally, they are called out for not mentioning Sunderly and will now reread Sunderly, but will likely vote Stonetree or Merlyn.

Not a lot to go on here, seems to be pretty consistent in their thoughts and consistent in the scarcity of them.[/quote]

Just to show a part what Saltcliffe presents us as "significant substantial" and "conclusive". :rolleyes:

Sorry, Saltcliffe, but I prefer my one. All you did so far is to tell us that Sunderly is innocent, a conclusion that I disagree with. He looks better than Stonetree, but not better than Farwynd. It's funny that it's just Sunderly that accuses me of licking up to you - which I never did btw.

I try my best to get a grip on the game, if that is't good enough for you, I cannot change that. If I did not know you are innocent, you would be in big, big trouble now, because you make less and less sense. If Stonetree and Sunderly are the FM, they had an easy time to win this one. Although I think that a Farwynd/Stonetree partnership is more likely.