MAFIA 58

[House Dayne]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1568644' date='Oct 27 2008, 17.18']Not it isn't! And we should not just pile on. I put it there in the hopes of maybe getting him to talk a little, it was more of a drive by than anything else, was supposed to add a little more pressure. Although for all my hoping, all I got in response was a *squawk*.

[b]remove vote[/b][/quote]

That's something I really don't like.
You wanted to add more pressure to Volmark, fine. And you said you agreed with me, I take it to mean that you find Volmark suspicious. So what do you achieve by removing your vote?
You don't give any reason to not suspect Volmark anymore.
You don't give any other suspect and consequently don't switch your vote to someone else
So what should I conclude?
- That you did not suspect Volmark in the first place? then why say you agree with me and why choose him to add pressure?
- That you consider *squawk* as an appropriate defense (shit, should have thought about this one earlier :P)
- Or that you were afraid to stand by your vote after getting votes yourself?



[quote name='House Volmark' post='1568657' date='Oct 27 2008, 17.26']I left for bed at 16.39, and the day ended at 21.14 (more or less, I'm going with Farwynd's "we have an hour left" post +1). At the time when I left for bed the Merlyn mob was composed by a joke vote by Farwynd, a vote by Goodbrother I specifically said I thought was bad reasoning and Orkwood following Goodbrother. I didn't like it, plus I figured if you really wanted to lynch Merlyn you had enough time and people. If you want to blame the lack of a lynch on someone blame Botley, Saltcliffe or Kenning.[/quote]
Oh, I blame them too, though I consider the following things:
- Kenning is dead and was innocent
- Saltcliffe has talked several times about connexion problems. I suspect him too for different reasons though, but I don't like to call lies on OOC events.
- Botley I don't suspect on this account because he has openly put himself in an unpopular position. And he was pushing forward alternatives.

What I really don't like about your attitude is this:
You said the Merlyn mob was a cop-out but you did nothing to try and move the lynch on someone else as Botley did. You just stayed on me with little time in the day while it was unlikely to achieve anything. If at least you had tried to push the case on me and convince people to vote for me, then fine, but you didn't do that.
And then you come in the morning saying that it's too bad we didn't lynch, and deny all responbility.
In all of that you don't take any strong stance.
That's the kind of behaviour that makes me suspect people most of all.

[quote]My evil SK twin would have prefered you losing a day plus a player.[/quote]
Oh, seriously
"My evil SK Twin wouldn't have chosen bread over shit cause he would have prefered beans for his dinner. " :rolleyes:

[quote]Sure worked for me...[/quote]

Vodka for me please. I need it.

[quote]The reason I didn't hop onto the Merlyn mob is because I didn't like it. I said so twice on thread before retiring for the night.[/quote]
See above.

I'll try to have a look at Harlaw since Farwynd brought up some points I find interesting. But for the moment, Volmark and Saltcliffe are my favourite suspects.

ETA; not so sure of what to think of Volmark's slip. He's right that we have 3 lynches to get the first SK.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Harlaw' post='1568661' date='Oct 27 2008, 12.30']The way I figure it, there are 7 players looking for 2 bad guys out of 9; there are 2 players looking for 1 bad guy out of 9.

Volmark has admitted he is only looking for one baddie. We have plenty of time today, so I will hold my vote for now, but he's the likely receipent of it. (I wanted to look at someone else from last night, but don't have any notes with me)[/quote]

I don't count this against Volmark. It is a bit suspicious at face value, but i think i get what Volmark was saying. I'd like Volmark to clarify it to make sure though, please.

[quote name='House Myre' post='1568733' date='Oct 27 2008, 13.34']"My evil SK Twin wouldn't have chosen bread over shit cause he would have prefered beans for his dinner. " :rolleyes:[/quote]

I don't get your point. Are you saying it is futile to second-guess bad guys? Cos I don't know how else we are going to catch them. I am not good at metaphors, so please clarify.


anyway, my thoughts so far:

Orkwood, hasn’t said anything much today, so nothing further to add.

Volmark: Has three posts so far today. He tiers his suspects into three groups but hasn’t pushed a case or even explained his suspicion. I sympathise with finding it difficult to determine rationalisations for why one feels suspicious of someone or not, but it seems like Volmark isn’t even trying. Almost like a cautious SK not wanting to appear too obvious. So Volmark, why are you suspicious of Botley, Goodbrother and Myre? In his last post Volmark sounds to me like an anxious evil, who assumed that there would be a lynch last night (I agree that there is no plausible reason for an SK not to want a lynch, we only ‘lose a day’ if I was evil and not killed) but didn’t want to be on the mob, and who is now worried.

Farwynd: Goes after Botley for not finishing me off, reasonable but it has to be said, pretty safe too. All of his reasoning seems sound to me though, so Farwynd drops down my suspiciousness list.

Myre: Claims that an SK would want us to ‘lose a day’. Obviously I am biased – I know that we have not lost a day, that we are in fact going into day 2 with one more innocent than we otherwise would have had, which, all other things being equal, is a good thing. But even allowing for that, I can’t imagine an SK who would want to derail a lynch to ‘lose a day’. The other reasons yes fine, but I don’t like that. Seems like Myre is picking a fight here. Myre’s most recent post is good though. But I need to make sure I am not bambooxled into trusting anyone who makes a long post.


Going to unspecified meal now, will be back to do the rest of the players.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568773' date='Oct 27 2008, 14.01']Farwynd: Goes after Botley for not finishing me off, reasonable but it has to be said, pretty safe too. All of his reasoning seems sound to me though, so Farwynd drops down my suspiciousness list.[/quote]
You have some catching up still to do.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1568793' date='Oct 27 2008, 14.10']You have some catching up still to do.[/quote]

Do you mean generally, or specifically relating to you? I didn't talk about everything that you have said, because none of it I found suspicious, so what would be the point?

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568773' date='Oct 27 2008, 13.01']I don't count this against Volmark. It is a bit suspicious at face value, but i think i get what Volmark was saying. I'd like Volmark to clarify it to make sure though, please.[/quote]

It's like others have said, three days to get one SK (if we fail we end up with two SK and one innocent and we lose regardless of who gets lynched). If we lynch one SK in the first three days we haven't won the game but we live to die another (fourth) day.

[quote]Volmark: Has three posts so far today. He tiers his suspects into three groups but hasn’t pushed a case or even explained his suspicion. I sympathise with finding it difficult to determine rationalisations for why one feels suspicious of someone or not, but it seems like Volmark isn’t even trying.[/quote]

To be quite frank, the accusation of lacklustre performance is warranted. I'm somehow lacking inspiration, and a considerably uninformative NK and the lack of a lynch (I'm beginning to blame myself now too) don't help. Putting me out of my misery would be merciful if you decide to do it, but it won't net you a SK.

[quote]So Volmark, why are you suspicious of Botley, Goodbrother and Myre?[/quote]

I made points against all three of them yesterday, but although my suspicions might not be misplaced they're seeming pretty unpractical. Myre has been attacking me all day, so any attack against him would just be seen as retaliation, and I haven't seen anything new under the sun which makes me suspect him any more than yesterday (where it was only me voting for him).

Goodbrother continues playing rather weirdly for my taste. His comment that he wasn't expecting to be NK also caught my eye, why not?

As for Botley, although I disagreed with his "SK profile" rationale yesterday and wasn't particularly fond of his case on Farwynd he's been growing on me lately. I suspect him much less.

I'll put a vote on [b]Saltcliffe[/b] for the voting me-unvoting me business that Myre pointed out. I agree it's suspicious. First he parrots Myre and then he immediately retracts when called out for it. Looks too much like he's trying to win a popularity contest.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568773' date='Oct 27 2008, 19.01'][quote name='Yours truly']
"My evil SK Twin wouldn't have chosen bread over shit cause he would have prefered beans for his dinner. " rolleyes2.gif[/quote]

I don't get your point. Are you saying it is futile to second-guess bad guys? Cos I don't know how else we are going to catch them. I am not good at metaphors, so please clarify.
[/quote]

Volmark's original question was (rewording is mine): "Why in the Hell would the SK hold from a lynch"?
I answer Volmark that we lost a day by not lynching and that it's in the the SKs' interest.
Volmark answers that the SKs would have prefered to have us lose both a day and a player. Which is probably true but impossible.
So my metaphor meant: Given that the SK couldn't get what they prefered, would they choose to pick the bread (i-e the innocents losing a day) or the shit (i-e the best option for the innocents)?
I think the answer is obvious.

[quote]Volmark: Has three posts so far today. He tiers his suspects into three groups but hasn’t pushed a case or even explained his suspicion. I sympathise with finding it difficult to determine rationalisations for why one feels suspicious of someone or not, but it seems like Volmark isn’t even trying. Almost like a cautious SK not wanting to appear too obvious. So Volmark, why are you suspicious of Botley, Goodbrother and Myre? In his last post Volmark sounds to me like an anxious evil, who assumed that there would be a lynch last night (I agree that there is no plausible reason for an SK not to want a lynch, we only ‘lose a day’ if I was evil and not killed) but didn’t want to be on the mob, and who is now worried.[/quote]

You assume wrong: the loss of a day doesn't depend on your role. Only YOU know whether you are innocent or not. For all of us, you are a suspect. By failing to lynch you, we failed to remove a suspect.

Let me try to break it down for you. Suppose worse case scenario. We don't manage to lynch a SK and the SKs don't target each other.
1 lynch on day 2 and one kill on night 2 --> 7 players remain
1 lynch on day 3 and 1 kill on night 3 --> 5 players
1 lynch on day 4 and 1 kill on night 4 --> 3 players including 2 SK
which means that we lose on day 5 after 3 lynches.

If we had lynched on day 1, the break down would have been the following:
1 lynch on day 1 1 kill on night 1 --> 8 players
1 lynch on day 2 1 kill on night 2 --> 6 players
1 lynch on day 3 1 kill on night 3 --> 4 players including 2 SK
at this point we can still win if we lynch the right SK (the one who kills on even nights) and go to day 5 with 3 players with only 1 SK. So we have an extra lynch with 25 % chance to lynch the right SK.

[quote]Myre: Claims that an SK would want us to ‘lose a day’. Obviously I am biased – I know that we have not lost a day, that we are in fact going into day 2 with one more innocent than we otherwise would have had, which, all other things being equal, is a good thing. [u]But even allowing for that, I can’t imagine an SK who would want to derail a lynch to ‘lose a day’.[/u] The other reasons yes fine, but I don’t like that. Seems like Myre is picking a fight here. Myre’s most recent post is good though. But I need to make sure I am not bambooxled into trusting anyone who makes a long post.[/quote]

A SK has interest to lose us a day. Seems obvious to me. Does it mean he will try to do so? Maybe, maybe not, depends on how he estimates the risk. But to answer your bolded part, I don't think either a SK would go up to derailing a mob to "lose a day". If I thought that I would be attacking Botley. Because he (and Kenning to a lesser extent) tried to derail the mob and to push other suspects.
That's not what Volmark did (see above post for more details).

[House Dondarrion]

Right, so I've been at work all day, and posting privileges are reserved there, unless something huge comes up. Anything said so far i felt could wait until now, and in all honesty the main active time is likely to be now until a few hours from now anyhow.

So, what have i seen that's really stood out?

I'll parrot everyone else with [b]Volmark[/b]'s slip. I still feel the way it's phrased shouts out slip. Then again, we've all made false slips before, so it's not a deal sealer. Worth a vote for now though...

However, one thing that only Merlyn has picked up on at all, and even then hasn't really connected the dots with is Volmark's suspect list. Goodbrother and Myre. Two of our more active players. At least one of them would have to be counted as one of the leaders so far. Two people that have shown that a SK might have cause to fear them later.

Now I'm not saying that they are both innocent. They could be guilty, although that's another story for another time, probably even another day. However, they haven't stood out as guilty. They aren't the prime choices. Sure I was pushing goodbrother for a while, but that was very early day1ish stuff.


However, neither of them dropped dead last night.

What would be ideal for a SK? Why, to lynch one today, kill the other tonight. They could even WIFOM a "would i be silly enough to kill a top suspect" with it.

I can definately see Volmark being the even day killer. Can't see him being the odd day killer.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568812' date='Oct 27 2008, 14.19']Do you mean generally, or specifically relating to you? I didn't talk about everything that you have said, because none of it I found suspicious, so what would be the point?[/quote]
From your post I thought you meant that was pretty much where I was at generally, not simply what you found suspicious. kk

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

9 players remain: Botley, Farwynd, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Merlyn, Myre, Orkwood, Saltcliffe, Volmark..

5 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Saltcliffe (Botley, Volmark.)
2 votes for Volmark. (Myre, Orkwood)
1 vote for Harlaw (Farwynd)

4 players have not voted: Goodbrother, Harlaw, Merlyn, Saltcliffe.

Mod Pebs is dissapearing. But I am sure spider will pop in before it gets too late.

Please feel free to Spam our Inbox. We love hearing your thoughts.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Myre' post='1568834' date='Oct 27 2008, 14.31']I don't get your point. Are you saying it is futile to second-guess bad guys? Cos I don't know how else we are going to catch them. I am not good at metaphors, so please clarify.


Volmark's original question was (rewording is mine): "Why in the Hell would the SK hold from a lynch"?
I answer Volmark that we lost a day by not lynching and that it's in the the SKs' interest.
Volmark answers that the SKs would have prefered to have us lose both a day and a player. Which is probably true but impossible.
So my metaphor meant: Given that the SK couldn't get what they prefered, would they choose to pick the bread (i-e the innocents losing a day) or the shit (i-e the best option for the innocents)?
I think the answer is obvious.



You assume wrong: the loss of a day doesn't depend on your role. Only YOU know whether you are innocent or not. For all of us, you are a suspect. By failing to lynch you, we failed to remove a suspect.

Let me try to break it down for you. Suppose worse case scenario. We don't manage to lynch a SK and the SKs don't target each other.
1 lynch on day 2 and one kill on night 2 --> 7 players remain
1 lynch on day 3 and 1 kill on night 3 --> 5 players
1 lynch on day 4 and 1 kill on night 4 --> 3 players including 2 SK
which means that we lose on day 5 after 3 lynches.

If we had lynched on day 1, the break down would have been the following:
1 lynch on day 1 1 kill on night 1 --> 8 players
1 lynch on day 2 1 kill on night 2 --> 6 players
1 lynch on day 3 1 kill on night 3 --> 4 players including 2 SK
at this point we can still win if we lynch the right SK (the one who kills on even nights) and go to day 5 with 3 players with only 1 SK. So we have an extra lynch with 25 % chance to lynch the right SK.



A SK has interest to lose us a day. Seems obvious to me. Does it mean he will try to do so? Maybe, maybe not, depends on how he estimates the risk. But to answer your bolded part, I don't think either a SK would go up to derailing a mob to "lose a day". If I thought that I would be attacking Botley. Because he (and Kenning to a lesser extent) tried to derail the mob and to push other suspects.
That's not what Volmark did (see above post for more details).[/quote]

I'm sorry, I have not got a mathematical enough brain to work this out properly, but i am trying. Surely in scenario one, when we don't lynch day one, we go into day 4 with 5 people, 2 of whom are SK, and in scenario 2, when we did lynch day one, we go into day 4 with 4 people, two of whom are SK. Surely it is easier to win if there are five people than if there are four? What am I missing?

[House Dondarrion]

re: Volmark,

I never realised I was on his good books. That means he has two big posters as bad, one as good. I wonder if he was buddying up with me, hoping to off the others then become my friend, hoping to survive the game that way?

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

9 players remain: Botley, Farwynd, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Merlyn, Myre, Orkwood, Saltcliffe, Volmark..

5 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Volmark. (Myre, Orkwood)
1 vote for Harlaw (Farwynd)
1 vote for Saltcliffe (Volmark.)

5 players have not voted: Botley, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Merlyn, Saltcliffe.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568861' date='Oct 27 2008, 13.42']I'm sorry, I have not got a mathematical enough brain to work this out properly, but i am trying. Surely in scenario one, when we don't lynch day one, we go into day 4 with 5 people, 2 of whom are SK, and in scenario 2, when we did lynch day one, we go into day 4 with 4 people, two of whom are SK. Surely it is easier to win if there are five people than if there are four? What am I missing?[/quote]

With 5, we have a 40% chance of hitting a SK, and a 60% chance of hitting an innocent and losing.

With 4, we have a 50% chance of hitting a SK, and a 50% chance of hitting an innocent and losing.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1568872' date='Oct 27 2008, 14.44']With 5, we have a 40% chance of hitting a SK, and a 60% chance of hitting an innocent and losing.

With 4, we have a 50% chance of hitting a SK, and a 50% chance of hitting an innocent and losing.[/quote]

But isn't that balanced by having more innocents around to come up with theories and work things through?

[Magic Mirror]

[quote name='House Volmark' post='1568829' date='Oct 27 2008, 19.29']I'll put a vote on Saltcliffe for the voting me-unvoting me business that Myre pointed out. I agree it's suspicious. First he parrots Myre and then he immediately retracts when called out for it. Looks too much like he's trying to win a popularity contest.[/quote]Hey, brother, you needed Myre to point out to you a fact that [i]directly[/i] conserned your own self? You needed outside help on a question which should be primary your own concern more than anybody else's? Buddy, it's really [i]strange[/i].
[b]Volmark. [/b]
I know it's fourth vote and it's dangerous zone within a game with 9 players left. Still, I see a Reason, with a capital "R" letter.
I can't imagine an innocent palyer who is less atttentive about his own situation than some ousider Myre.
Well, I also can't imagine guilty player so unattentive also, but I can imagine guilty player who don't touch the question until anybody else would see it.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568861' date='Oct 27 2008, 19.42']I'm sorry, I have not got a mathematical enough brain to work this out properly, but i am trying. Surely in scenario one, when we don't lynch day one, we go into day 4 with 5 people, 2 of whom are SK, and in scenario 2, when we did lynch day one, we go into day 4 with 4 people, two of whom are SK. Surely it is easier to win if there are five people than if there are four? What am I missing?[/quote]

What Orkwood said. But the major point is that we have one extra lynch.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568875' date='Oct 27 2008, 13.47']But isn't that balanced by having more innocents around to come up with theories and work things through?[/quote]

You could see it as more theories, or you could see it as more noise.

Ultimately i'll take hard numbers over group hugs any day :-p

[House Dayne]

OK, I'm going out a few hours. I see Goodbrother has put 4th vote on Volmark so I'm going to [b]remove vote[/b] for now.
We have what, 20 hours left, no need to rush.

[House Dondarrion]

Okay, i re-read what i read at work to get a better fix on it...

Harlaw and Farwynd, I just can't get a fix on either of you. I really don't feel one way or another about either of you. I don't know why, I just seem chronically unable to read you both today. I'm sure I'll start picking up guilt or lack there of later.

Botley, you are a secondary candidate for day 2 killer. I can't see you or Volmark being day 1 killer, and I think Volmark is the most likely day 2 killer, so that lets you off for now. If he spins innocent though, or clearly won't hang, you are my second choice for day 2 killer. I have no fix on day 1 killer yet :-(

So, why Botley? I know I'm not saying anything new, but he likes deflecting blame on others. Post 226 stood out on that for me, so much I noted it down. He also seems rather defensive, which isn't usually a good sign. Add in his CIing on day 1, and I have a feeling our Day 2 killer may have been trying to control the first two deaths!

That said, Big V is still my favourite for Day 2 killer, and I can't see why Botley would, as a day 1 killer, CI anyone unless he planned to then kill them himself as part of a grand mindfuck.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='Myre's analysis']If we had lynched on day 1, the break down would have been the following:
1 lynch on day 1 1 kill on night 1 --> 8 players
1 lynch on day 2 1 kill on night 2 --> 6 players
1 lynch on day 3 1 kill on night 3 --> 4 players including 2 SK
at this point we can still win if we lynch the right SK (the one who kills on even nights) and go to day 5 with 3 players with only 1 SK. So we have an extra lynch with 25 % chance to lynch the right SK.[/quote]

I know it won't happen most likely, but still:

If we should get down to 4 players with both SK alive, we should not lynch at all. If we lynch, we have a 25 percent chance of hitting the right SK. If we don't lynch, the even SK has a 33 percent chance of hitting the odd SK.

33 is more than 25.


Oh, and I am back.