MAFIA 58

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1568912' date='Oct 27 2008, 13.02']Okay, i re-read what i read at work to get a better fix on it...

Harlaw and Farwynd, I just can't get a fix on either of you. I really don't feel one way or another about either of you. I don't know why, I just seem chronically unable to read you both today. I'm sure I'll start picking up guilt or lack there of later.

Botley, you are a secondary candidate for day 2 killer. I can't see you or Volmark being day 1 killer, and I think Volmark is the most likely day 2 killer, so that lets you off for now. If he spins innocent though, or clearly won't hang, you are my second choice for day 2 killer. I have no fix on day 1 killer yet :-(

So, why Botley? I know I'm not saying anything new, but he likes deflecting blame on others. Post 226 stood out on that for me, so much I noted it down. He also seems rather defensive, which isn't usually a good sign. Add in his CIing on day 1, and I have a feeling our Day 2 killer may have been trying to control the first two deaths!

That said, Big V is still my favourite for Day 2 killer, and I can't see why Botley would, as a day 1 killer, CI anyone unless he planned to then kill them himself as part of a grand mindfuck.[/quote]

1) I am not defensive, but offensive, my little green erection. :rolleyes:

2) I could have CIed Goodbrother to let the other SK kill him on night 2, if I was the day 1 SK.

3) Then, I like your theory about me being the day 2 killer. If I wasn't that sure of my own innocence, I might have even followed you there.

4) But hey, I have also a theory that involves you being a killer. See my next post, which I am goign to write after I reread the rest of your stuff. :)

[House Ashford]

Ok, this is something that I haven't noticed yet. Orkwood accusing Goodbrother:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1566994' date='Oct 25 2008, 12.05']Nice try, my not so [b]good brother[/b], but the powers that be clearly stated that RIs won't get a role PM.. So why would a RI have to point out a lack of role?

My spider senses are tingling.[/quote]

But then he does exactly the same what Goodbrother did:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1567005' date='Oct 25 2008, 12.11']What great reading skills I have?

All the better to lynch you with, my dear!

When one sees a "go" and no PM, one naturally has a quick read of the rules to see what's amiss, no?[/quote]

It's not that much, since it was all happening in the jokey beginning phase of the game, but it is still interesting and a bit contradicting.


Well, that was not actually the case I planned to write. The case will hopefully follow in my next post.

------------------------------

In the meanwhile, some of you may ask themselves the question: "Why the heck have I lost my interest in lynching Merlyn?"

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1569216' date='Oct 27 2008, 16.31']1) I am not defensive, but offensive, my little green erection. :rolleyes:

2) I could have CIed Goodbrother to let the other SK kill him on night 2, if I was the day 1 SK.

3) Then, I like your theory about me being the day 2 killer. If I wasn't that sure of my own innocence, I might have even followed you there.

4) But hey, I have also a theory that involves you being a killer. See my next post, which I am goign to write after I reread the rest of your stuff. :)[/quote]

Oh, I eagerly await it.

Case on me or not, I will personally hand credit to you if it's better than the "ouch, my gut hurts" that's been directed at me by the others so far! :fence:

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1569229' date='Oct 27 2008, 16.37']Ok, this is something that I haven't noticed yet. Orkwood accusing Goodbrother:



But then he does exactly the same what Goodbrother did:



It's not that much, since it was all happening in the jokey beginning phase of the game, but it is still interesting and a bit contradicting.


Well, that was not actually the case I planned to write. The case will hopefully follow in my next post.

------------------------------

In the meanwhile, some of you may ask themselves the question: "Why the heck have I lost my interest in lynching Merlyn?"[/quote]


Firstly, one is a melodramatic "Look, I have no PM!". The other is simply pointing out that there is an innocent explanation for reading the rules very carefully.

Truth be said, if we weren't in a joke stage, the answer would be more like "Yes. I do read the rules. Problem?"

And secondly, Merlyn has been active today. My biggest issue with him has gone. Doesn't mean i'm not still watching him.

I'm watching all of you!

[House Dayne]

I'm back and slightly drunk so will not stay for long.

[quote name=' House Merlyn a bit less than 3 hours ago']Going to unspecified meal now, will be back to do the rest of the players.[/quote]

Merlyn, you were on the right path, what made you stop? Please keep on going.

Saltcliffe, I'd really like to hear more from you. Who are your suspects, why did you remove your vote from Volmark?

Will be all for now.

[House Upcliff]

I'm back. Work is trying to block this site. I can access it but every time I try to navigate (changed pages or what not) I get an error message and if I hit the back button, the web shuts down on me. Same thing happened when they first started blocking LJ too. This will be my last game for a while. I hate going 12 hours without posting.

Catching up now, and I'll be around for about 4 hours or so.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1569236' date='Oct 27 2008, 15.44']I'm watching all of you![/quote]

This pretty much breaks down my case in one sentence. Yes, you are watching all of us. You are watching us with such a big interest, that you have no read on anyone here.

The point is that you have avoided to make enemies so far. On day 1 you attacked Goodbrother first, then you switched to Merlyn, not after making clear that you pose no threat to Goodbrother anymore:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1567638' date='Oct 26 2008, 10.13']If we're looking for consensus, then I'd like to say that I'd really rather not vote off Myre. The whole pile on followed by mass pull-out on him is just a little too bizarre for me. If we weren't in a 2SK game, i'd be looking at the people jumping on and off. As it is, I'm just left bamboozled. I'm not CI or PI-ing him, I just want to see a little more before I make up my mind.

I'm also agreeing, for now, with Goodbrother. We should vote off either someone inactive but not in modkill-land, or someone who's standing out as suspicious. I'm also happy to [b]remove vote[/b] from my good brother, as his comment really isn't enough to lynch on, especially as it wouldn't particularly help a SK. That said, as we can WIFOM it to hell, I also haven't changed to the "That makes him PI" camp. Right now I'd rather keep him as he's active. Simple as that really... If we're going to go on flimsy i'd rather lynch a quiet flimsy than a poster.

So, who will I go with?
I'm inclined to follow my former target and vote for [b]Merlyn[/b], our disappearing magician.[/quote]

The only one that you were attacking afterwards has been Kenning, another easy target. Not for long though.

The only one who might have had a reason to kill you was Merlyn, but he would have been dead by all laws of mafia before he could fire a bullet on you.


Today you are attacking Volmark and me. Volmark will be dead soon, which leaves me as the only one who has a motive to kill you. But then I have a motive to kill a lot of players.


To make it short:

You play a very careful game. You avoid to accuse more than one player at a time, and you are mostly following the majority's opinion. You choose weak targets. You change your opinion when you see that it is not en vogue anymore.


Finally, there is a contradiction that you might want to explain:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1568018' date='Oct 26 2008, 17.04']Botley, I appreciate the case on farwynd. I'm not totally convinced, but I could consider hopping over if it wasn't for the fact that doing so would increase the chances of no lynch. Depending on the night's action, I will happily support an early case on far tomorrow.[/quote]

Here you say that you consider to support the case that I made on Farwynd. But today you have apparently changed your mind:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1568912' date='Oct 27 2008, 13.02']Harlaw and Farwynd, I just can't get a fix on either of you. I really don't feel one way or another about either of you. I don't know why, I just seem chronically unable to read you both today. I'm sure I'll start picking up guilt or lack there of later.[/quote]

No mention of the case against farwynd, a case that you have been considering to follow.

It's also notable how you still try to avoid possible conflicts with stronger players (exception: me). Even if you have no read on these two players, what about the rest?

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1569293' date='Oct 27 2008, 17.22']This pretty much breaks down my case in one sentence. Yes, you are watching all of us. You are watching us with such a big interest, that you have no read on anyone here.

The point is that you have avoided to make enemies so far. On day 1 you attacked Goodbrother first, then you switched to Merlyn, not after making clear that you pose no threat to Goodbrother anymore:



The only one that you were attacking afterwards has been Kenning, another easy target. Not for long though.

The only one who might have had a reason to kill you was Merlyn, but he would have been dead by all laws of mafia before he could fire a bullet on you.


Today you are attacking Volmark and me. Volmark will be dead soon, which leaves me as the only one who has a motive to kill you. But then I have a motive to kill a lot of players.


To make it short:

You play a very careful game. You avoid to accuse more than one player at a time, and you are mostly following the majority's opinion. You choose weak targets. You change your opinion when you see that it is not en vogue anymore.


Finally, there is a contradiction that you might want to explain:



Here you say that you consider to support the case that I made on Farwynd. But today you have apparently changed your mind:



No mention of the case against farwynd, a case that you have been considering to follow.

It's also notable how you still try to avoid possible conflicts with stronger players (exception: me). Even if you have no read on these two players, what about the rest?[/quote]

Okay, I have to give it to you. It's a real case.

Farwynd, it's today's stuff that's left me with no fix. To be honest, i had actually forgot there even was a case on him yesterday, much less that i was considering it. Bad note taking there...


Beyond that though, you accuse me of only going for weak targets, other than you. You accuse me of only ever suspecting one person at a time, other than when i also suspect you. Can you see the problems here?

Of course I haven't made a plethora of enemies. It's day 2 and we don't have a great deal to go on. I'm not one to jump on people randomly, following my gut. I much prefer to have reason to suspect before i pounce.


And what do i have on the rest? Well, we have one no read. One day 1 case liked but no read during day 2. We have 2 i currently suspect. One i wanted to get rid of, but since the activity spurt feel better about keeping around. Thats a fair few opinions that aren't too hidden. I've also made it clear that I like Myre and want to keep him around for now. If he's a SK, he's likely to help us kill the other one. If he's an innocent, he;s a strong one. Either way, better alive than dead right now.

Goodbrother, I'm also quite publicly feeling quite good about. Other than the early on stuff, I like what he's saying. Hardly something i needed to be pushed for, i'm sure i've commented on it at least once or twice.

The others? There are a few people that are plodding along doing some guilty things, some innocent things, but not enough to really bother with one way or another yet. I'd rather keep any specific observations on both them and anyone else I have extra stuff on to myself until it's useful. After all, Mafia's as much about what you sit on as what you reveal, as giving away too much too early may cause people to change their play subtly to avoid any traps...

[House Dondarrion]

More on farwynd...

Now i've gone back and read it, your case was based on him not saying a lot, not doing a lot and staying under the radar. It was based on not being able to get a read on him. Are you suprised I still have no read? I also now realise I only would have supported it as it would have meant lynching a non contributor, something I was clearly trying to do with Merlyn. Not because it was lynching someone with a better than average chance of being guilty, as I hadn't seen a single case at the time that made anyone significantly more likely.

So yeah... Where is this contradiction? I may have admitted it may be there, but I now retract that and instead suggest you've tried to twist things a little here...

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1569232' date='Oct 27 2008, 17.39']Case on me or not, I will personally hand credit to you if it's better than the "ouch, my gut hurts" that's been directed at me by the others so far! :fence:[/quote]

Well my gut [i]did[/i] hurt :blush:

[quote name='House Myre' post='1569245' date='Oct 27 2008, 17.52']I'm back and slightly drunk so will not stay for long.

Merlyn, you were on the right path, what made you stop? Please keep on going.[/quote]

Erm, food :)

Anyway back now so will think and reconsider and ruminate and so on.

[House Dondarrion]

I get a feeling Merlyn's guts have less to do with my guilt, or lack there of, and more to do with food, and excess there of to take so long! :-p

[House Upcliff]

ok, other than the case on Voldermont which I agree on, the other person that I am suspicious of is Botley, I need to read back a bit more and get the reasons for this.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1569365' date='Oct 27 2008, 18.48']I get a feeling Merlyn's guts have less to do with my guilt, or lack there of, and more to do with food, and excess there of to take so long! :-p[/quote]

Sorry I got distracted by Teh Internet.

[House Clegane]

Ok I have looked at the other players that i didn't do before here are my thoughts:

Kenning – Rest in Peace


Harlaw: I feel relatively good about Harlaw – I don’t agree that Volmark’s ‘slip’ really means anything, but the way Harlaw mentioned it seemed to be very genuine to me. Then again, it would be an easy thing for an SK to say, and he hasn’t really made any other cases today.

Goodbrother: If Goodbrother is evil, then they know how to give off good vibes. I rank Goodbrother still as low down on my suspect list – basically he seems like an innocent what more can I say? That said, if Goodbrother survives another couple of NK’s, I might start wondering why. GB hasn’t come under sustained lynch pressure yet, and sometimes that’s the only way to unmask someone’s true colours.

Saltcliffe: Saltcliffe is beginning to irritate me and make me feel uneasy. Partly it is that he said that a sensible SK would not want to be a very low poster but sit in the middle – and then proceeded to post very little, seems a bit contrived to me. To his credit, he doesn’t overreact when he gets a vote on him, but doesn’t respond constructively either, and when he votes in order to put on pressure and gets no response he then complains about it. Seems like he is at best freeloading and at worst SK. I wouldn’t at this stage have any qualms lynching Slatcliffe.


The main problem is that there are no partner ties to find, and both of the SK during the day at least are trying to find the other SK, even if they don't actually want to lynch them, so making it difficult to determine what their behaviour would be like. I guess we are looking for someone who is
a) obviously trying to avoid suspicion
b) watching the thread to find the other SK, but not voting for an obvious target because they don't want to lynch the SK

I think it comes down to whether I think Volmark is guilty - if I do then those who are not voting for him, or seeking to find other suspects become more suspicious; if i don't then those on the mob become more suspicious (all this is based on the assumption that the SKs come to the same conclusion as me about Volmark's guilt.

I need to think about this and also think about who might want Kenning dead, even if that could be BIFOMmed to Pluto and back.



THIS POST HAS BEEN EDITED BY A PISSED OFF MOD. FOR SQUIRRELY COMMENTS. DO NOT MAKE THEM OR BE MODKILLED.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1569365' date='Oct 27 2008, 18.48']I get a feeling Merlyn's guts have less to do with my guilt, or lack there of, and more to do with food, and excess there of to take so long! :-p[/quote]

orkwood you've amde a couple of these kind of light-hearted posts, to which, to be fair, I have responded in kind. I am just uneasy in case your idea is to generally get people thinking warm fuzzy things about you so you can kill them while they slepp and they won't suspect a thing. It could just be your character, in which case, that's great, but i'm worried, is all

[House Dondarrion]

Not nearly as much activity today as I hoped. I ahd no-one to bounce off of, so i'll have to retire after a relatively quiet time.

I'll post again a little in about 7-8 hours with any luck. Not for long though, as I'll then have to go back into read only mode for another 8 or so hours. :-p

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1569429' date='Oct 27 2008, 18.41']orkwood you've amde a couple of these kind of light-hearted posts, to which, to be fair, I have responded in kind. I am just uneasy in case your idea is to generally get people thinking warm fuzzy things about you so you can kill them while they slepp and they won't suspect a thing. It could just be your character, in which case, that's great, but i'm worried, is all[/quote]

I'm a light hearted person. Honestly. I am warm and fuzzy. You don't suspect me. No-one suspects me. You all know I'm your best friend. You also don't want to kill me. I'm clearly innocent, yet easily led. I should be the last living Innocent. You don't want to kill me. You don't want to lynch me. You just want to let me be.

[House Ashford]

[b]Vote Orkwood[/b]

If I am truly interested on a game, I am not forgetting a case that I was planning to support the day before. Orkwood's whole reasoning is flawed. Everyone should have a look at his yesterday's accusations against Kenning:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1567794' date='Oct 26 2008, 12.50']That's it?

Wow. You come back 20 minutes after the modkill limit, tell us you will reread, then come to the conclusion that not much has happened, then rehash one of the oldest cases in a very very brief way?

Is the best chance of you contributing on day 1 a modkill CF result?[/quote]

Compared with his own reasoning:

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1569354' date='Oct 27 2008, 17.36']Okay, I have to give it to you. It's a real case.

Farwynd, it's today's stuff that's left me with no fix. To be honest, i had actually forgot there even was a case on him yesterday, much less that i was considering it. Bad note taking there...


Beyond that though, you accuse me of only going for weak targets, other than you. You accuse me of only ever suspecting one person at a time, other than when i also suspect you. Can you see the problems here?

Of course I haven't made a plethora of enemies. [color="#FF0000"]It's day 2 and we don't have a great deal to go on.[/color] I'm not one to jump on people randomly, following my gut. I much prefer to have reason to suspect before i pounce.


And what do i have on the rest? Well, we have one no read. One day 1 case liked but no read during day 2. We have 2 i currently suspect. One i wanted to get rid of, but since the activity spurt feel better about keeping around. Thats a fair few opinions that aren't too hidden. I've also made it clear that I like Myre and want to keep him around for now. If he's a SK, he's likely to help us kill the other one. If he's an innocent, he;s a strong one. Either way, better alive than dead right now.

Goodbrother, I'm also quite publicly feeling quite good about. Other than the early on stuff, I like what he's saying. Hardly something i needed to be pushed for, i'm sure i've commented on it at least once or twice.

[color="#FF0000"]The others? There are a few people that are plodding along doing some guilty things, some innocent things, but not enough to really bother with one way or another yet. I'd rather keep any specific observations on both them and anyone else I have extra stuff on to myself until it's useful. After all, Mafia's as much about what you sit on as what you reveal, as giving away too much too early may cause people to change their play subtly to avoid any traps...[/color][/quote]

This is a ore elaborate version of the "I have no clue what is going on" stuff that he accused Kenning for. However, Grief did only start playing when the day was almost over, while Orkwood has been following the game from the very beginning. Orkwood wants us to make believe that he is deeply engaged in this game, while the truth that he has not truly pushed a case, for he mostly followed the majority or attacked weak targets. Or both. I already said that most likely both the SK can be found on Merlyn's mob. I think Orwkood is one of them.






I would like to get a good explanation for the following chain of logic:

1) Orkwood supports the case on Farwynd

2) Orkwood completely forgets the case on Farwynd (although it has been present for a long time).

3) Orkwood has no read on Farwynd

4) Orkwood gets accused by Botley

5) Orkwood is not supporting the case on Farwynd anymore, because it is similar to the case on him.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1569440' date='Oct 27 2008, 18.50'][b]Vote Orkwood[/b]

If I am truly interested on a game, I am not forgetting a case that I was planning to support the day before. Orkwood's whole reasoning is flawed. Everyone should have a look at his yesterday's accusations against Kenning:



Compared with his own reasoning:



This is a ore elaborate version of the "I have no clue what is going on" stuff that he accused Kenning for. However, Grief did only start playing when the day was almost over, while Orkwood has been following the game from the very beginning. Orkwood wants us to make believe that he is deeply engaged in this game, while the truth that he has not truly pushed a case, for he mostly followed the majority or attacked weak targets. Or both. I already said that most likely both the SK can be found on Merlyn's mob. I think Orwkood is one of them.






I would like to get a good explanation for the following chain of logic:

1) Orkwood supports the case on Farwynd

2) Orkwood completely forgets the case on Farwynd (although it has been present for a long time).

3) Orkwood has no read on Farwynd

4) Orkwood gets accused by Botley

5) Orkwood is not supporting the case on Farwynd anymore, because it is similar to the case on him.[/quote]

Way to totally ignore the post where i look back at this origional "case" and my support for it, figure out that I was only going to support it as an alternative as it was similar to the case i was already supporting and decide the reason I forgot about it is because the case was nothingy. I was willing to vote him out as he had added nothing, like Merlyn up to that point.

Seriously. Go re-read the last few things i've said. You've clearly failed to take them in the first time.

Your case really isn't looking too strong in the cold light of scrutiny.


Oh, and nice job, waiting until I had made it clear i'd be gone for the night, so couldn't refute this. Hoping the others would miss my extra little post following the one you quoted which went into more detail on the forgotten case?

[House Ashford]

I will go to bed soon and I have no interest to drag the day out longer than needed.


My top suspects are Farwynd, Saltcliffe, Volmark and Orkwood. I feel better about Merlyn and Myre. Goodbrother is not an option.

That leaves Harlaw. I still haven't managed to look for him. Right now I have to say that I felt better about him in the beginning, but his lack of posting (which he explained :grouphug: ) makes it hard to judge him. His last posts have not been too informative. Have to reread him again to get a better picture.