MAFIA 58

[House Clegane]

Ok I've just reread Myre. The impression I get is that he is a skilfull player, and quite statesmanlike. Nothing seems to suggest guilt, but then he hasn't come under any significant pressure yet. If Myre survives too many NK's, I'll start to wonder why (have i said this before?, i feel like i might have done)

ets: reread Harlaw. There is little for logic or the brain to go own, and my gut is facing a large intestine/small intestine internal battle. The large intestine is saying yeh look he sounds really genbuine he's had problems posting which make him difficult to assess but really he gives good vibes. The small intestine is shouting you fool you fool yes he has connection problems but that doesn't make him innocent. watch out before he kills you all.

Since i don't know which bit of the intestinal tract to trust, i will just say that i am conflicted over Harlaw, an i will remain so until he is able to post some content

[House Clegane]

Farwynd, you have defended yourself well imo against Orkwood's case. And you have said that you are fighting to lynch Orkwood, ostensibly for the sake of the innocents. But can i ask you - is this borne simply out of you-or-me necessity, or do you genuinely have Orkwood as your top suspect? I'd like to know

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1570740' date='Oct 28 2008, 18.43']Farwynd, you have defended yourself well imo against Orkwood's case. And you have said that you are fighting to lynch Orkwood, ostensibly for the sake of the innocents. But can i ask you - is this borne simply out of you-or-me necessity, or do you genuinely have Orkwood as your top suspect? I'd like to know[/quote]I genuinely have him as my top suspect. I pointed out that if you look at my list of suspects [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31642&view=findpost&p=1568563"]here[/url] that I went from trusting Orkwood, to really feeling a little bit more concerned about him. I didn't feel confident enough in my suspicions at that point to put him in the top tier because that is a pretty large jump from thinking you trust someone to making them a top suspect of yours. Then I interacted with him when he was flipping out over the case by Botley, which defintely was concerning to me, and today the vote analysis that I did pointed (IMO) to him looking guilty as well. Since then, I've seen a huge number of inconsistencies in his arguments and a number of other issues with his play that I've pointed out that look guilty to me. I am willing to look at other options, however from the start of the day today I didn't see any that looked anywhere near as good as Orkwood.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1570753' date='Oct 28 2008, 18.59']I genuinely have him as my top suspect. I pointed out that if you look at my list of suspects [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31642&view=findpost&p=1568563"]here[/url] that I went from trusting Orkwood, to really feeling a little bit more concerned about him. I didn't feel confident enough in my suspicions at that point to put him in the top tier because that is a pretty large jump from thinking you trust someone to making them a top suspect of yours. Then I interacted with him when he was flipping out over the case by Botley, which defintely was concerning to me, and today the vote analysis that I did pointed (IMO) to him looking guilty as well. Since then, I've seen a huge number of inconsistencies in his arguments and a number of other issues with his play that I've pointed out that look guilty to me. I am willing to look at other options, however from the start of the day today I didn't see any that looked anywhere near as good as Orkwood.[/quote]

Ok. Do you have any thoughts about Saltcliffe? I just want to get you and Orkwood away from each other, cos I think we've all learned about as much as we can from your arguments. But i am interested in what other people think of salty cos i really didn't like his post.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Myre' post='1570723' date='Oct 28 2008, 18.26']You've been consistent with the idea that lynching>no lynch.
Now, thinking that someone is neutral and thinking that someone is innocent are 2 very different things. When I think someone is innocent, I at least try to defend them and to find another option. Even if I may end up voting for them in the end for the sake of a lynch.[/quote]'Seems innocent' is not exactly a ringing endoursment. It was more likely than not that Merlyn was innocent, but that goes without saying because of the numbers. As I've said, I did not think Merlyn looked particularly guilty or innocent. Even if I really, honestly thought he was innocent, I still would have lynched him because I wouldn't know for sure without the CF result. It didn't seem like enough people were willing to budge from either Merlyn or myself, so even if I had the time to push a different lynch I may not have. As an innocent, I've compromised my personal feelings for much worse lynches.

[quote name='House Myre' post='1570723' date='Oct 28 2008, 18.26']Another thing, we now know Volmark was the even day SK (I really don't believe in the conspiration theory that the kill was withheld, the SK is in a sufficiently hard situation that he doesn't want to lose a day IMO). For the odd-day SK, lynching the even day SK on day 1 or 2 didn't make a difference. Yet, you are voting for Orkwood who IIRC was pretty adamant on voting out Volmark.
How do you explain that?[/quote]First, I wouldn't say he was adamant on voting out Volmark he only had two posts even about Volmark:[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1568837' date='Oct 27 2008, 14.32']Right, so I've been at work all day, and posting privileges are reserved there, unless something huge comes up. Anything said so far i felt could wait until now, and in all honesty the main active time is likely to be now until a few hours from now anyhow.
So, what have i seen that's really stood out?
I'll parrot everyone else with [b]Volmark[/b]'s slip. I still feel the way it's phrased shouts out slip. Then again, we've all made false slips before, so it's not a deal sealer. Worth a vote for now though...
However, one thing that only Merlyn has picked up on at all, and even then hasn't really connected the dots with is Volmark's suspect list. Goodbrother and Myre. Two of our more active players. At least one of them would have to be counted as one of the leaders so far. Two people that have shown that a SK might have cause to fear them later.
Now I'm not saying that they are both innocent. They could be guilty, although that's another story for another time, probably even another day. However, they haven't stood out as guilty. They aren't the prime choices. Sure I was pushing goodbrother for a while, but that was very early day1ish stuff.
However, neither of them dropped dead last night.
What would be ideal for a SK? Why, to lynch one today, kill the other tonight. They could even WIFOM a "would i be silly enough to kill a top suspect" with it.
I can definately see Volmark being the even day killer. Can't see him being the odd day killer.[/quote][quote name='House Orkwood' post='1568912' date='Oct 27 2008, 15.02']That said, Big V is still my favourite for Day 2 killer, and I can't see why Botley would, as a day 1 killer, CI anyone unless he planned to then kill them himself as part of a grand mindfuck.[/quote]The first is a bandwagon vote, pretty safe vote, which he adding some, fairly shoddy, reasoning to (Volmark went on to try and lynch Saltcliffe).

Still, you do bring up a good point, that really isn't very good strategy. Hm, the only people that were not voting for Volmark were Merlyn and Harlaw. I'd consider voting for them today if Orkwood won't be lynched. Merlyn, particularly recently, has been looking more innocent (maybe it is just because he is agreeing with me, he seems genuine though). Harlaw is still rather hard to get a read on. At this point, rather than vote Harlaw who I don't feel confident in saying they are guilty, I'd prefer to lynch someone I think looks very guilty and guess that one of the following possibilities explains Orkwood's vote on Volmark:
1) He didn't actually think Volmark was guilty.
2) He didn't think ahead and realized too late that Volmark was going to be lynched.
3) He just went the easy road (he's no stranger to this) and made a bandwagon vote.
There may be other possibilities I'm not thinking of at the moment.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1570757' date='Oct 28 2008, 17.02']Ok. Do you have any thoughts about Saltcliffe? I just want to get you and Orkwood away from each other, cos I think we've all learned about as much as we can from your arguments. But i am interested in what other people think of salty cos i really didn't like his post.[/quote]

I went back and re-read salt.

That took a long time. I've heard of people with more wives than he has posts!

He's just too... Bleh. Nothing there. I'd like to think eventually we'll lynch him for inactivity, but somehow people often sneak through contributing nothing while the more active players clash and lynch each other.

I don't know really. If it's him or no-one, i'd happily vote him off. At the same time, we have real life, active cases here, so to vote off someone for inactivity when there are actual cases flying around might be a step in the wrong direction?

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1570757' date='Oct 28 2008, 19.02']Ok. Do you have any thoughts about Saltcliffe? I just want to get you and Orkwood away from each other, cos I think we've all learned about as much as we can from your arguments. But i am interested in what other people think of salty cos i really didn't like his post.[/quote]
Saltcliffe is hard to get because his internet connection has been an issue (not sure if it still is, but apparently it was). It kind of throws a wrench into some of the things that bother me about him (general inactivity and lack of vote day 1). [quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1567990' date='Oct 26 2008, 18.34']@Botley: I kind of was hoping to try and help move the game along, but my internet connectoin keeps bugging out on me.[/quote]Are you still having internet issues Saltcliffe? You say that you intended on being active and moving the game along, that hasn't happened at any point in the game.

I pointed this out before:[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1568398' date='Oct 27 2008, 06.54']A no lynch is bad regardless of what else has happened. We need as much infomation as possible damn it.[/quote]This reaction feels forced to me, really rubs me the wrong way.

Other than his inactivity, the other thing that bothers me is his hypocrisy here:
[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1568398' date='Oct 27 2008, 06.54']I would have to agree with Myre's reasoning for his vote on Volmoth.

[b]Vote Volmark[/b][/quote]
[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1570567' date='Oct 28 2008, 16.12']Now while it is was nice of you to hammer Volmark for us, the underlined, italicized bit caught my attention. It has been mentioned a few times that it is likely the SK will try to keep around a player or two that is more likely to get lynched than himself, well I have to admit, keeping me around is a nice way to do it.
I mean hell my performance to date has been poor to say the least and to get a lynch on me would probably be pretty damn easy. Now saying you would rather lynch Volmark over me? Sounds a little like you are trying to get into Myre's good books as he has been [s]looking[/s] glaring at me since the start of the game and lets face it, Myre is probably the most likely here to be innocent.
So I have no problem voting for Farwynd.[/quote]If he wants to see someone brown nosing then he only needs to look back to his old post, agreeing with Myre. The reasoning in Saltcliffe's post here really leaves a lot to be desired.
Finally:[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1570575' date='Oct 28 2008, 16.15']Oh and before anyone asks, I have not voted because there is still a lot of time left today so I feel there is no rush atm to add a vote and lets be honest, my votes do not seem to carry much weight anyway.[/quote]He seems rather concerned with what people think of him here. :unsure:

There is nothing here that really screams out guilty at all. Nothing that makes me think he is innocent either. I had innocent vibes from him before, but I don't really now. I am not sure he'd really even be a good compromise lynch for today. Orkwood continues to be unwilling to back up any of his claims any further after my clear and honest refutation. He also is unwilling to do anything to defend himself. Orkwood speaks of "cases flying around", there is but one case flying around and that is the one on him.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1570811' date='Oct 28 2008, 17.49']Orkwood speaks of "cases flying around", there is but one case flying around and that is the one on him.[/quote]

And the one on you. Right now, me and you are the favourites to hang.

From a third party perspective, I'd rather either of us hang than Salt, but wouldn't complain if Salt was to hang.

As myself, Obviously I'd rather you hang, followed by salt. Why? I know I'm innocent, so of course I'd rather someone who's status I don't know hangs instead. You don't know what I know though, which is why the 3rd party view is the one to take I guess. Either way, Salt probably isn't the best choice to hang today, even if there's every chance he's the killer and will slip his way into end game.


As for the rest, I like my case on you and don't like your refutes on it. I've fought your claims on me enough that clearly you like your case on me and don't like my refutes on it. That or you are the SK and will just happily see me hang. Either way, me and you carrying on direct at each other, answering each other's snipes, is just banging our heads together. Unless I see something new on you, or you see something new on me, we're probably better off letting others decide. Sure, we can try to win them to our point of view, but you clearly won't win me over, and I clearly won't win you over, so it's just a waste of energy.

edit: I'll be around briefly in 7 hours or so. I'll then hopefully be around, again briefly, around lynch time. Tomorrow I'll have less time than usual overall, as after lynch time's short hop on I'll be gone for a few hours, and will probably only grab about an hour to an hour and a half, around current time minus 2 hours tomorrow. Thursday I'll be back to normal with a brief appearance 1 day and 7 hours from now, then being on and off for 6 or so hours after another 8-9 hours has passed. Basically, other than tomorrow my activity will be like today. Just so i don't get accused as dissapearing at critical times, it is something I have planned. That said, i might be dead anyway!

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1570835' date='Oct 28 2008, 20.06']As for the rest, I like my case on you and don't like your refutes on it. I've fought your claims on me enough that clearly you like your case on me and don't like my refutes on it. That or you are the SK and will just happily see me hang. Either way, me and you carrying on direct at each other, answering each other's snipes, is just banging our heads together. Unless I see something new on you, or you see something new on me, we're probably better off letting others decide. Sure, we can try to win them to our point of view, but you clearly won't win me over, and I clearly won't win you over, so it's just a waste of energy.[/quote]You've made no attempt to assert your case as having any value. Just sayin that you disagree with my recent posts doesn't cut it. You need to point by point show me where you are right and I am wrong (as I have done). Until you do that, it seems clear that you don't have any real evidence on your side, just your word that it is true. Back up your shit.

I'm not trying to win you over, I think you are guilty. I'm trying to win over everyone else. Judging by effort and quality, you are getting blown out of the fucking water. It'll just take an open mind to read my posts explaining what bullshit yours are. Merlyn is really the only one that has been active and read our discussion fully and is in agreement with me. Just a matter of time until other people come on and see that point too.

I'm getting off for awhile because I'm exhausted. Might be only 2-3 hours, it might be like 12. This should go without saying, but don't lynch me while I'm gone. I've put a lot of effort to defend myself and point out Orkwood's faults, it would be a pretty poor payback to get stabbed in the back.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1570843' date='Oct 28 2008, 18.15']You've made no attempt to assert your case as having any value. Just sayin that you disagree with my recent posts doesn't cut it. You need to point by point show me where you are right and I am wrong (as I have done). Until you do that, it seems clear that you don't have any real evidence on your side, just your word that it is true. Back up your shit.

I'm not trying to win you over, I think you are guilty. I'm trying to win over everyone else. Judging by effort and quality, you are getting blown out of the fucking water. It'll just take an open mind to read my posts explaining what bullshit yours are. Merlyn is really the only one that has been active and read our discussion fully and is in agreement with me. Just a matter of time until other people come on and see that point too.

I'm getting off for awhile because I'm exhausted. Might be only 2-3 hours, it might be like 12. This should go without saying, but don't lynch me while I'm gone. I've put a lot of effort to defend myself and point out Orkwood's faults, it would be a pretty poor payback to get stabbed in the back.[/quote]


So you genuinely want me to go through and argue, once again, jsut like in my origional, that i beleive my interpertation is correct and your defence is wrong?

All I ask is that people read my case on you. Then re-read you. Then read your defence. Then re-read you again. If they do the same with your case on me, then re-reading me, then reading my defence, then re-reading me again too, they can make their own mind up. We can argue until we're blue in the face, but you'll end up insisting that beer is better, i'll end up insisting Vodka's the way forward.

So i'd really rather just let people read what we've said, read our defences, and make their minds up. If they chose to believe me, great. If they don't, no huge loss as we have a few spare lynches still.

[House Ashford]

Isn't it very unlikely that two innocents will make such a big effort to avoid their lynch when we're in such a splendid position? For me it's a foregone conclusion that we lynch both Orkwood and Farwynd. Today and tomorrow. No matter if I get killed tonight or not.


Okay, now I have to read all the stuff that has been posted. But folks, we have almost won that game. We really don't need to waste time, and it's a shame that we force Farwynd and Orkwood to write defenses, when they're doomed anyway.


[b]Farwynd[/b]

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1570856' date='Oct 28 2008, 18.27']Isn't it very unlikely that two innocents will make such a big effort to avoid their lynch when we're in such a splendid position? For me it's a foregone conclusion that we lynch both Orkwood and Farwynd. Today and tomorrow. No matter if I get killed tonight or not.


Okay, now I have to read all the stuff that has been posted. But folks, we have almost won that game. We really don't need to waste time, and it's a shame that we force Farwynd and Orkwood to write defenses, when they're doomed anyway.


[b]Farwynd[/b][/quote]


In a worst case scenario, we lose 3 innocents, me far and tonight's death.

That leaves 5 players. we'll still have 2 lynches.

In all honesty, I begrudgingly have to approve of this plan.


Of course, if far flips innocent, i'll still fight tooth and nail tomorrow to get you all to change this plan, as i'd clearly rather avoid that worst case scenario for team innocent. :-p But if i look at it as an impartial 3rd party, sure. Lynch both of us and hope we've not halved team innocent's lynches through stubborn innocent head banging.

[House Ashford]

Time to get some sleep. CU tomorrow hopefully! :pirate:

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1570856' date='Oct 28 2008, 20.27']Isn't it very unlikely that two innocents will make such a big effort to avoid their lynch when we're in such a splendid position? For me it's a foregone conclusion that we lynch both Orkwood and Farwynd. Today and tomorrow. No matter if I get killed tonight or not.

Okay, now I have to read all the stuff that has been posted. But folks, we have almost won that game. We really don't need to waste time, and it's a shame that we force Farwynd and Orkwood to write defenses, when they're doomed anyway.

[b]Farwynd[/b][/quote]Thanks a lot Botley, I thought mafia was about making good cases and actually caring about what was going on. I'm glad you were nice enough to come in after all that I posted to say that it was a complete waste of my time and you clearly didn't read it. Well, if I'm lynched today, you can rest assured that I'll be going out with two middle fingers up. Just because you have decided we've already won doesn't mean I'm willing to get lynched when the case against me is a huge piece of shit. I'm extremely pissed off right now. Sometimes I wonder why I fucking bother playing. If I was the only SK left I certainly wouldn't be putting in this much effort to avoid a lynch because it would be a waste of time. I honestly think that Orkwood is likely to be the last SK, which is why I want to survive today and see him lynched. Victory is a lot sweeter when you are around to enjoy it.

And really, we are in excellent shape, but lets not count our chickens before they hatch. If we misslynch a few times we are likely going to end up with something like Merlyn, Saltcliffe, and Harlaw left. There is no way that Botley, Myre, Orkwood, or myself will survive to endgame, so that is the other reason I'm not pulling any punches at this point. Just foolish to be careless and make haphazard choices. Everyone deserves to have a case against them to respond to and get voted on based on the merits of said case. Not getting that respect and courtesy is extremely frustrating.

Orkwood, I'm the only one doing headbanging, you are just letting things slide. If you really cared as an innocent you'd make some further effort than your initial case. I guess you can't put together any more bullshit into a somewhat coherent post though. I'm glad that you are getting rewarded for that.

[House Wythers]

2+ hours and zero posts. The game isn't over 'till its over people.

[quote name='House Botley' post='1570856' date='Oct 28 2008, 20.27']Isn't it very unlikely that two innocents will make such a big effort to avoid their lynch when we're in such a splendid position? For me it's a foregone conclusion that we lynch both Orkwood and Farwynd. Today and tomorrow. No matter if I get killed tonight or not.


Okay, now I have to read all the stuff that has been posted. But folks, we have almost won that game. We really don't need to waste time, and it's a shame that we force Farwynd and Orkwood to write defenses, when they're doomed anyway.

[b]Farwynd[/b][/quote]Why do I get the feeling you are looking at all this and laughing? [Paranoia]Are pushing me to get lynched first because you think I'd be a greater threat? Lynch Farwynd, NK Myre, lynch Orkwood, lynch one of Saltcliffe/Harlaw/Merlyn, NK Goodbrother=endgame with Botley and two of Saltcliffe/Harlaw/Merlyn. Ugh. Fact is, that is a relatively plausible path to a win for you (or for Myre) in particular.[/paranoia]

[Magic Mirror]

[quote]If I was the only SK left I certainly wouldn't be putting in this much effort to avoid a lynch because it would be a waste of time.[/quote]Interesting logic. Most of players won't consider avoiding a lynch when guilty to be waste of time.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1571003' date='Oct 29 2008, 01.17']Interesting logic. Most of players won't consider avoiding a lynch when guilty to be waste of time.[/quote]
How likely do you think it is that I make it to end game? Even though it is stupid, even if Orkwood is lynched today then I'm on the chopping block for tomorrow. I pretty much have no chance at that point. Today though, I want Orkwood dead before me.

[Magic Mirror]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1571006' date='Oct 29 2008, 06.21']How likely do you think it is that I make it to end game?[/quote]Well, I remember at least one game when a player suspected by everybody (and guilty) managed to live through 3-4 days needful for his team to win.
[quote]Even though it is stupid, even if Orkwood is lynched today then I'm on the chopping block for tomorrow.[/quote]Only Botley is sure about lynching you both. You certainly are able to affect my opinion; in fact, you already affected it. Now I am not so definite about lynching you; but I still prefer you to Okrwood.
[quote]Today though, I want Orkwood dead before me.[/quote]Does it mean you don't suspect that much to hope for winning tonight?

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1571019' date='Oct 29 2008, 01.46']Well, I remember at least one game when a player suspected by everybody (and guilty) managed to live through 3-4 days needful for his team to win.[/quote]True, I suppose just about everything has happened at least once (including an FM killing their own partner :P).
[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1571019' date='Oct 29 2008, 01.46']Only Botley is sure about lynching you both. You certainly are able to affect my opinion; in fact, you already affected it. Now I am not so definite about lynching you; but I still prefer you to Okrwood.[/quote]You posted this earlier, summing up your thoughts about me:[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1570109' date='Oct 28 2008, 11.02']Well, I made long-promiced reread of Farwynd and have to admit that my good impression on him (by memory) was a mistake. At day 1, he did nothing except joke vote and, later, answering to Botley. He demonstrated grand indifference to whom we lynch - and now he says Merlyn seemed innocent? At day 2, he started by blaming Botley for not axing Merlyn, and later voted Volmark only because somebody had to axe him. Grand indifference again. Today he tries to participate, but it is somewhat too late, not even speaking that Orkwood is too popular target nowadays.
Among these two, I definitely prefer [b]Farwynd.[/b][/quote]I responded to some of what you said [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31642&view=findpost&p=1570605"]here[/url] (and [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31642&view=findpost&p=1570671"]here [/url]is my main post responding to Orkwood's case). What makes you think Orkwood is more suspicious than I am?

[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1571019' date='Oct 29 2008, 01.46']Does it mean you don't suspect that much to hope for winning tonight?[/quote]I do think it the game will end if we lynch Orkwood today, however being realistic I know that I am not necessarily right in that. Too much of his behavior has been clearly evil. At no point does he seem to pause or reconsider anything about his 'case' on my or my responses to it. He knows that it isn't that good and can't argue it any more because it isn't legitimate.

Anyways, if I'm wrong and survive until tomorrow, I'd be very surprised if I wasn't lynched. Particularly considering there will be two lynches (yes assuming the even SK is dead) before the next NK (after tonight).

[Magic Mirror]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1571035' date='Oct 29 2008, 07.22']What makes you think Orkwood is more suspicious than I am?[/quote]I think Orkwood is [i]less[/i] suspicious than you because I see nothing suspicious in his actions. I disagreed accusation made towards him from the moment they were made, and I found his answers satisfying. I am less satisfied with your answers. Arguments like "If I was SK, I'd give up already" aren't legitimate, in my opinion. They prove nothing but your polemical ability.

However, I consider it possible that you both are innocent modern Arryn&Greyjoy. We still can lynch Harlaw.