AGOT Mafia 62

[House Dondarrion]

I don't have high hopes for a quick night.

People have been seriously scarce in this game, and there is no wind in the sails.

This has made me a sad panda.

[House Targaryen]

You pass the night in a fitful sleep, stirring at every sound. Was that a footstep? Did someone scream? Minutes seem like hours. Finally, just before dawn, you doze off.

You wake to bright sunshine and the guard yelling “Get up you murdering dogs!”

He drops six bowls or porridge on the ground and quickly everyone grabs a bowl. You realize about the same time as the guard that there are no bowls left over. “Ha!” is all he says before leaving.

(yes, that means no one was killed last night)



It is day 3.

6 players remain: Broom, Darklyn, Estren, Hollard, Leygood, Toyne.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

[House Dondarrion]

Well I guess we're back to the same position that we were in before...

Looks like a heal.

I guess the healer bought us a little more time, I'd prefer we made better use of it.

[Lady Gaga]

Just here briefly.

Leygood, his reasoning strikes me as odd in places. Also kinda gut feeling. I find him suspicious.
Toyne, does not strike me as suspicious, and I think most of his reasoning makes sense.
Broom, I don't really like. Seems erratic or something.
Darklyn, strikes me as most likely inno, seems fairly consistent, makes sense.
Estren I haven't got much of a read on. Don't find very suspicious, though was rather persistent regarding Toyne. Seems bored with slow game.

Anyone else around?

[House Corbray]

We need to wait for everyone to check in. But then we have a decision to make - Do we go for night again?

Three people never got around to voting yesterday, so we might not have much choice. :/

My top suspect is still Broom, nothing's changed, but he probably should have been modkilled by now. :(

[House Targaryen]

Broom decided to sit in a dark corner a long while ago now, staring at his feet. Suddenly he jumps up, runs to the door and hammers with his hands on it, crying:


"Mooo-oooomy, I promise you I will never ever kill people again. I am soo soo-oooryyy!"


Then he stops and shakes his head. He looks puzzled and turns towards you:

"Wow, what a terrible nightmare!"


Darklyn coughs and says: "You did speakly aloud."


"Oh!"


"Oh!"

[b]

Broom (Vegas) has been modkilled. He was a Faceless Man.[/b]

[House Corbray]

Told Ya. :D

[Lady Gaga]

Woo, hit a FM :D

Good call on Broom Darklyn.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

5 players remain: Darklyn, Estren, Hollard, Leygood, Toyne.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

5 players have not voted: Darklyn, Estren, Hollard, Leygood, Toyne.

[House Corbray]

Broom's posts again:

[quote name='House Broom' post='1694897' date='Feb 21 2009, 15.46']But you can only move beyond the RP stage by applying arbitrary pressure, and you can only create arbitrary pressure by being willing to lynch on unsubstantiated cases (or at least appearing to be willing). A detailed argument against the first attempt to move on (when it is the [i]only[/i] way to move on) seems counterproductive.

For slowing the game down further, vote [b]Estren[/b].[/quote]

Broom attacks Estren on day 1. This case also defends Toyne.

[quote name='House Broom' post='1695030' date='Feb 21 2009, 18.45']Didn't like how Hollard handled his Pryor case at all. Definitely seemed like he went for an expedient, easy case, then backtracked very quickly when others didn't completely jump on board.

Pryor's aggressive defense seems a little over the top, but like I said before, over the top is pretty much how you have to play it at this stage.

Estren made the earliest "real" argument possible, dickered about play styles, then fell off the face of the earth.

Sparr; nothing substantial.

Redwyne nothing at all.

I'm good with any of the first four at this point. Don't see a reason to avoid the modkill.[/quote]

Broom is happy lynching Estren, Pryor, Sparr, Redwyne.

[quote name='House Broom' post='1695069' date='Feb 21 2009, 19.35']I'm okay with what little Leygood has said. Mostly because his views agreed with my early judgement about Estren :)

That also colored my view of Toyne, probably. That little bit of suspicion towards Estren is definitely changing how I read those early posts.

However.

[b]Remove vote[/b].

I also don't like what's going on between Pryor and Hollard. It's either the way Hollard backtracked on his vote, or the aggressive way Pryor's been going after anyone and everyone. Seems like there was a bit of a train building on Hollard all on its own, but for some reason Pryor decided to take the helm and ram it down everyone's throat.

[b]Vote Pryor[/b][/quote]

Broom defends Leygood and attacks Pryor.

[House Corbray]

Looking at Broom's posts alone, the people he's defended are Leygood and Toyne. I guess it depends how obvious you expect the fm to be.

I'm going to look through to see what everyone else said about Broom now.

[House Corbray]

OK, not a single person other than me voted for Broom all game. So while this does mean that we can't narrow the suspects down much, we also know that there's not much distancing going on.

Estren and Hollard don't mention Broom all game. Which is odd, but it is a very slow game and Broom didn't say much. Estren is unlikely to be partnered to Broom imo due to Broom's vote.

Toyne and Leygood could both be linked to Broom. First Toyne:

[quote name='House Toyne' post='1694956' date='Feb 21 2009, 17.13']Woah, now I have symps flocking to my banner :P .

It's different when there are only two people active for several hours. You keep checking the thread and nothing new but what the other wrote. Plus there are always those who like hearing the sound of their own voice ;) .
I'd agree you were an easy target at that time.

Dogged, overzealous, bloodthirsty? Strong language... it was just a pleasant chat, honest :P .
Hmm so you're suggesting we lynch Redwyne so that we definately only get one CF result but potentially have more RI. Don't know if I buy that statistically but it is nice to have active people around. Can someone think of a reason we shouldn't go for 2 CF results (such as Pless's odd/even rule which I can't remember off the top of my head but was probably decided to have little relevance in games anyway especially these days what with the large number of roles that throw the odd/even rule off anyway so I'm probably just wasting my time trying to think of it but definately not wasting my time trying to find it in some arcane lost thread somewhere so instead just hoping someone else can tell me it's irrelevant for sure to make me feel all better and warm and fuzzy inside cos that's nice too :) )?

I'd be comfortable lynching pretty much anyone at this point. Leaning slightly towards Broom, Hollard and Leygood simply because I'm finding it harder to get a read on them.

EDIT: And Sparr. Completely forgot about Sparr, they are way under my radar, just some RP thus far.[/quote]

Toyne is leaning slightly towards voting for Broom, Hollard and Leygood. The inclusion of Broom could possibly be a bit of safe distancing, as a Broom lynch at that point was unlikely. Hard to tell.

[quote name='House Toyne' post='1696360' date='Feb 23 2009, 14.34']Looks like people are giving up or just have no time at the moment. Seems we need another day to make a lynch with just 2.5 hours left.
I still haven't had time to analyse the thread as I would have liked to but I won't be here again before the end of day so I'm going to put a vote down for [b]Leygood[/b] to provide an alternative to Broom in case more people show up.[/quote]

Here Toyne votes Leygood as an alternative to Broom, and then leaves for the day. No real explanation. I don't like this post at all.

[House Corbray]

Now Leygood:

[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?showtopic=34220&st=120&p=1695183&#entry1695183"]Here[/url] Leygood agrees with Broom.

Then Leygood doesn't like my narrowing down of the suspects to him and Leygood, and attacks the case:

[quote name='House Leygood' post='1695633' date='Feb 22 2009, 18.09']Dude... FM kill. They want people dead. That's how they win. They don't care who it is as long as it isn't them. How would not lynching have been good for the killers? That doesn't take them any closer to their goal of winning.[/quote]

Of course, the case did also point to Leygood, so we can expect this, it's not really a defence of Broom specifically.

Then Leygood posts this:

[quote name='House Leygood' post='1696052' date='Feb 23 2009, 03.45']I go to work for 8 hours and come back to find... nothing. LOL

So let's see...
The players were:
House Broom
[s]House Condon[/s] Innocent - Night kill
House Darklyn
House Estren
House Hollard
House Leygood
[s]House Pryor[/s] Innocent - Lynch
[s]House Redwyne[/s] Innocent - Mod kill
[s]House Sparr [/s] Innocent - Mod kill
House Toyne

So during the course of one day we loose 4 innocents. (I wonder if we regret not lynching Redwyne now?)

Out of the remaining 6 players 2 are most likely guilty (If there were 3 - 2 FM and a symp - surely the mods would have just ended the game.) Leaving us 4/2.
House Broom
House Darklyn
House Estren
House Hollard
House Leygood
House Toyne

This also means we have to have 4 people on the lynch mob.

Discounting myself, I have a pool of 5 suspects.
I believe one (or both) FM can be found in Toyne/Hollard.

I don't think Toyne/Estren can be paired.

I have to wonder why Darklyn did nothing but one liners Day 1, but came on strong Day 2?

Discussion? Hell for now I'd accept accusations and hate mail.[/quote]

Leygood's top suspects are Toyne and Hollard. Doesn't mention Broom.

[House Mooton]

Sorry it's been really hectic atm so just checking in briefly again :(.
Man that is some good news. Not only do we nab an FM, in my mind Darklyn is now PI - it would have been pretty elaborate to purposefully kill off a teammate just so the other gets PI status especially with such command of the game.

Plus the healer is probably still alive :thumbsup:. Can someone check that it wasn't just that night ran out. (Don't see why the FM would withhold kill at this point).

So we know there is exactly 1 FM left, no symps.
5 players, Darklyn PI.
Lynch incorrectly amongst Estren, Hollard, Leygood, Toyne.
Healer heals Darklyn.
Innocent killed.
3 players, Darklyn PI.
Lynch 1 of two remaining players for the win. 50/50 not bad.

BUT, if healer reveals then we get another 2 PI - the person they healed and the healer.
So 5 players, 3PI.
2 chances to lynch. We win.

If there is a counter reveal we simply lynch the two people claiming healer for the win (as we have two lynch chances and exactly 1 FM).



Also Darklyn the 'daft' reason I voted Leygood was that a second vote on Broom could have meant end of game if the 2 FM weren't on the lynch already. I didn't want to commit to that without even reading through Broom's posts.

[House Corbray]

It would be nice if more people had jumped on my Broom case. Things would be a lot easier now. :P

I think there's clear links between Broom and Leygood, and Broom and Toyne. Estren could only be linked to Broom if the day 1 case is distancing, so I don't think we should lynch Estren today, but maybe consider it tomorrow. Hollard doesn't mention Broom at all, really, which is worrying. Broom does attack Hollard slightly when he voted for Pryor, which could be distancing, but I don't think i'd be that happy with a Hollard lynch today either. I'm obviously CI. ;)

For me it has to be one of Toyne or Leygood today. I'm leaning towards....

[b]House Leygood[/b]

[House Corbray]

[quote name='House Toyne' post='1696987' date='Feb 23 2009, 23.32']Plus the healer is probably still alive :thumbsup:. Can someone check that it wasn't just that night ran out. (Don't see why the FM would withhold kill at this point).[/quote]

Night didn't run out, it only lasted a couple of hours iirc.

If i'd been a killer i'd have withheld my kill, to make us choose between 6 players instead of 5, so we shouldn't discount it as a possibility (I suggested going to night anyway, yes. This is because if the killers are tempted to kill someone, for whatever reason, it tells us something and helps us out).

[House Corbray]

[quote name='House Toyne' post='1696987' date='Feb 23 2009, 23.32']BUT, if healer reveals then we get another 2 PI - the person they healed and the healer.[/quote]

Unless the healer healed me.

I'm leaning towards the healer revealing as well, but i'm not certain about it, and it's up to them.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='House Darklyn' post='1696989' date='Feb 23 2009, 22.33']It would be nice if more people had jumped on my Broom case. Things would be a lot easier now. :P

I think there's clear links between Broom and Leygood, and Broom and Toyne. Estren could only be linked to Broom if the day 1 case is distancing, so I don't think we should lynch Estren today, but maybe consider it tomorrow. Hollard doesn't mention Broom at all, really, which is worrying. Broom does attack Hollard slightly when he voted for Pryor, which could be distancing, but I don't think i'd be that happy with a Hollard lynch today either. I'm obviously CI. ;)

For me it has to be one of Toyne or Leygood today. I'm leaning towards....

[b]House Leygood[/b][/quote]
I wouldn't be so quick to discount Estren for today. There was no pressure on Estren Day 1 so that may well have been distancing. And from what you said Estren ignored Broom the whole game. Also in the posts you quoted of Leygood, Leygood was agreeing with Broom for the most part. That strikes me as quite risky.
As for withholding a kill I guess that is a possibility then. If I were FM not sure I'd be that brave. I mean we have been so inactive that giving us an extra day to actually look at things could spell disaster... but w/e.
So possible pairings
Broom/Leygood
Broom/Estren
Broom/Hollard.
I'm not going to place a vote before I get a chance to reread which unfortunately I don't have time for atm. I did look briefly at your rereads Darklyn but I like to get it in context and flow of the game as well. Also I'd be keen to hear what others have to say - especially Hollard/Leygood/Estren.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='House Darklyn' post='1697012' date='Feb 23 2009, 22.49']Unless the healer healed me.[/quote]Lol true, I guess I was subconsciously thinking they healed me :P

[Magic Mirror]

[quote name='House Estren' post='1696438' date='Feb 23 2009, 16.37']WTF voting for night?!?

I understand the principle but hell!

If we did and lost one man at night the killers would be able to get a lynch unless the innocents were all unified in being correct tomorrow. I'm not willing to chance it. I want a proper lynch today.

I've been getting scummy feelings from Darklyn and Leygood and am going to do some rereading to hopefully find something.[/quote]Wrong. Voting for night was the best thing we could do. Clearly we had no clue who the FM were. If we had chosen wrong, then the FM would have won. What we needed to do is have one fewer suspect to choose from. Going to night would have done that if there had been a night kill. However with the mod kill of Broom we have the same effect (only better.)

With 6 people divided 4/2, we were going to have to get a unified innocent consensus anyway to vote out a FM (remember when you have 6 players you have to have 4 to lynch.) You were chancing nothing.

So why act all indignant about it?


[quote name='House Estren' post='1696667' date='Feb 23 2009, 20.27']Well I guess we're back to the same position that we were in before...

Looks like a heal.

I guess the healer bought us a little more time, I'd prefer we made better use of it.[/quote]I for one hope it's a heal. But it certainly isn't the only possible solution. A guard (though less likely) or the killers withholding a kill are also possibilities.


[quote name='House Toyne' post='1697016' date='Feb 23 2009, 23.52']I wouldn't be so quick to discount Estren for today. There was no pressure on Estren Day 1 so that may well have been distancing. And from what you said Estren ignored Broom the whole game. Also in the posts you quoted of Leygood, Leygood was agreeing with Broom for the most part. That strikes me as quite risky.
As for withholding a kill I guess that is a possibility then. If I were FM not sure I'd be that brave. I mean we have been so inactive that giving us an extra day to actually look at things could spell disaster... but w/e.
So possible pairings
Broom/Leygood
Broom/Estren
Broom/Hollard.
I'm not going to place a vote before I get a chance to reread which unfortunately I don't have time for atm. I did look briefly at your rereads Darklyn but I like to get it in context and flow of the game as well. Also I'd be keen to hear what others have to say - especially Hollard/Leygood/Estren.[/quote]I agree, I would not discount Estren.

But let's add Broom/Toyne to these pairings. Just so we don't leave anybody out. Or anyone forget that Toyne is still a suspect.

So for me I have to choose between Estren/Hollard/Toyne. Two of whom I have been suspicious of all game. But that means nothing since I was pretty sure Broom was a good guy.

I see that I am a suspect. So far the only one that's been offered up. If you lynch me, then the remaining FM gets a night kill, and tomorrow you will be 2/1. This is actaully a better position than we are in now. Of course I'd prefer you actually lynch the FM rather than me, but w/e.

I am now going back to reread Estren/Hollard/Toyne.


edited for clarity