Mafia Game 65.5: Twonnocent

[House Clegane]

Vikary - why do you place Doggett above Melcolm?

[House Clegane]

And I think we have about 15 hours left in the day.

[House Wythers]

Vikary - why do you place Doggett above Melcolm?

It's gut mostly.

I just noticed Dogget is second high poster now, but I fail to recall any single thought posted by him...

[House Targaryen]

I've corrected the timer. Just under 15 hours to go.

[House Clegane]

Darn. I was hoping you had something more concrete so I could figure out why my gut was bothering me too :P

eta: Thanks for fixing the timer!

[House Wythers]

I've corrected the timer. Just under 15 hours to go.

Thanks, but what about vote counter? :)

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

7 players remain: Doggett, Jordayne, Melcolm, Shawney, Vikary, Wagstaff, Waterman.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

2 votes for Waterman (Melcolm, Doggett)

1 vote for Melcolm (Shawney)

4 players have not voted: Jordayne, Vikary, Wagstaff, Waterman.

[House Payne]

Ok, I've re-read the thread and I'm also pretty sure the last FM is one of Melcolm or Doggett.

Melcolm suits me for today.

That would make the teams something like this:

Team Aegon:

Waterman

Thorne

Wagstaff (H)

Dalt

Team Rhaenyra:

Jordayne

Vikary

Shawney (H)

Doggett

Team Faith (FM)

Melcolm

Spicer

To me it's pretty obvious that Waterman is not FM, considering how he was Spicer's favored lynch all game. It would also fuck with team balance.

[Magic Mirror]

It's gut mostly.

I just noticed Dogget is second high poster now, but I fail to recall any single thought posted by him...

That failing is yours, and not mine. Sorry your memory sucks. And for the gut issues, I recommend Pepto Bismo.

I really don't have too much a problem with lynching Melcolm (since people are saying it is either him or me, and I know I am innocent.)

I do have a problem with the way Shawney is acting though. Way to arrogant and refusing to listen to others. Vicky just seems to be repeating whatever he says.

I really hope I am wrong and there weren't 3 FM.

[House Wythers]

I do have a problem with the way Shawney is acting though. Way to arrogant and refusing to listen to others.

Could you be more precise? What exactly he refused to listen?

[Magic Mirror]

Could you be more precise? What exactly he refused to listen?

I went to get the quoates but found a few other things. main ones are the 4/4/2. He refuses to even consider the possibility of 3/3/4; won't consider waterman.

but what I did find gave me a case on him with a couple of very obvious lies/changes.

[Magic Mirror]

God, some days I am so dumb. Every game I tell myself I need to listen to what I am saying, and every game I don’t. Screw it. Make a tin hat for me if you want, but here goes my theory.

Shawney and Wagstaff are on the same team. They are EVIL. Let’s take a good look at what Shawney has had to say:

Prior to Spicer revealing he says this:

I need a few minutes to read through again, but I wanted to say I don't find Spicer's reactions odd at all. I don't even like codes so encryption is even worse in my eyes. I would have refused to do it too. Spicer is not the only one who spoke against the codes - Wagstaff did too but I don't see people running him out of town on a rail. I don't like the knee jerk reactions against Spicer.

I'll be back in a few to further re-read and contribute.

This his reaction to the reaveal:

I was all ready to say why I was ok with Wagstaff or Melcolm, but .... grrrr.

Spicer

Now we catch him in an out and out lie:

who had revealed names at that point? It seems like Wag is wanting to claim a name already claimed by another.

but just 10 minutes later he changes this to:

Are you sure that's how that was supposed to be interpreted? I read it as my name (Wagstaff) has been claimed (by Dalt/Spicer - one of whom should be innocent and therefore) I am innocent.

I really think that we need a clarification.

Wagstaff did appear to be symping Shawney and then suddenly he is defending wagstaff when a few minutes before he was thinking differently. I really think Wagstaff was promoted to take the place of Spicer.

His reaction to people thinking it bad form to kill WJ:

Actually, I consider Dalt fair game at this point. He was killed for what he was able to do in-game, not because of who he was. He was obviously the one who had the best chance of putting the pieces together and didn't hide it.

Then he starts throwing around suspicions, but look what he has to say about me:

If I were to be looking for an FM in my faction, I'd have to lean towards Melcolm at this point. His play on day 1 is the most FM like, but at the same time, certain parts of his story read true (not thinking to symp his name, being 'confused')

I'm also thinking that because Dalt was innocent, does not mean that Vikary isn't. He has been lying awfully low (as have Wag and Water) but I can find nothing specifically scummy about him.

Doggett and Jordayne I read as innocent on gut level and interaction on day 1 with the reveals.

Spicer's reveal makes no sense because I would think the teams would be as even as possible given the set-up. My team has the full circle, but the other is broken - what would Spicer gain by lying?

Now let us talk about healers:

Could Piper have been lying? It's not like it's unprecedented.

The reason I had no problem lynching Thorne was that at one time he said if he revealed what he knew, the FM would know there was no healer. I'll have to find that quote.

In retrospect, This looks like a healer claim. At the time I didn't think so because with healer, you claim or don't (mostly don't). I thought he was just trying to sow confusion and force the real healer to slip up.

So he thinks this was a healer claim. But what he says about Piper try to “sow confusion and force the real healer makes no sense at all. PIPER WAS INNOCENT. PIPER WOULD NOT HAVE HURT HIS TEAM THAT WAY.

So now he is convinced that the real healer is dead so he and Wags come up with the idea of both claiming healer on opposite nights and everyone will believe them…there are no counter claims and who would lynch a healer?

So at this point, I am still looking innocent and am in the bottom tier.

Jordayne seemed innocent based on reveal interaction - same with Doggett, but to a lesser degree. I feel that Jordayne is also trying to figure this out, again Doggett too but to a slightly lesser degree.

Waterman is pretty much not playing at this point.

I haven't seen much analytical play from Vikary or Wag - Melcolm is kind of on the bubble. Wag could have pieced together that Thorne was the healer and I had some restriction, so his claim is ... iffy to me. Mostly believable, but I am willing to be swayed on that.

I guess my tiers look like this ...

Melcolm

Wagstaff, Vikary

Doggett, Jordayne

I'm not sure at all where to place Waterman.

Wags looked very guilty. No one can deny that. I placed a vote as soon as day arrived. I wanted his answers. He had been around but he had not provided any. He was looking scummy than pond scum. There were still 28 hrs to go, and lots of time for discussion, but look what Shawney did: took me from bottom to top tier.

And now I'm coming back around to Melcolm and Doggett.

I was bothered by the fact that they were the two who immediately voted Wag when the day started without seeming to want to wait until Wag was able to clarify his statement or to have more discussion.

I guess that moves my tiers a bit -

Melcolm, Doggett

Vikary, Wagstaff

Waterman, Jordayne

Jordayne - good point about Vikary. He placed a vote on him day one, then had time to reconsider it, but he left it on when he went to sleep. That and the vote on day 2 makes him a very unlikely partner.

Melcolm - you're still in my top because of attrition. I find a lot of people less suspicious than you.

ETA: and you and Doggett were quick to jump on the Wag lynch early today.

Vote Shawney

[House Mooton]

Aww, I was hoping one of you would have got the teams wrong. It doesn't prove anything, since Dalt mentioned Vikary was on Team Rhaenyra before. Furthermore, I'd imagine the mods wouldn't have screwed up badly enough not to tell the evil players the team of the player they're symping.

I just want to mention something that will sound very cold. There are five surviving members of Team Rhaenyra and only two of Team Aegon.

Let's say we lynch Melcolm. He turns up innocent. Now we're at 4-2.

Tonight, there's a very good chance that a member of Team Rhaenyra will die, bringing us to 3-2.

Okay. Now we lynch Doggett. He turns up innocent. We're at 2-2 again.

Then another member of Team Rhaenyra dies tonight, suddenly we're at 1-2. In that case, the best we can do is a draw. If we pick the wrong FM, we lose.

I've trusted Doggett for most of the game, but I don't like his current overdefensiveness and OMGUS reaction to Shawney. I did a quick reread, and there was nothing to prevent him from being Spicer's partner. He does make a comment about how his vote is on Melcolm, but he'd happily switch to Spicer. Spicer does argue with something Doggett said about encryption, but it could be distancing. I still thinks Waterman looks more suspicious, though, especially since his arguments that he could never be Spicer's partner are really, really not convincing. He's just parroting Shawney.

But either way, we can't take the risk of lynching Doggett tomorrow.

Also, given Waterman's lack of contribution, I would rather not see him in the final three if he's innocent.

The only way we can afford to lynch someone other than Waterman or Wagstaff tomorrow is if one of them dies tonight, or if there's no kill. Then we can afford to turn inward and look at Team Rhaenyra.

So I will be a terrible symp and hammer Melcolm if needed before I go. But tomorrow, we have to vote Waterman if someone on our team dies. Maybe Wagstaff if he does something ridiculously suspicious. We can't lynch Doggett.

Any objections?

Also, Shawney, I had my doubts when you immediately defended the killers' NK target. But would you like me to say something that would make you look more innocent, or would you rather keep a protective aura of scumminess around you?

[House Mooton]

All right. I might as well come out and say it, since Doggett made that OMGUS case based on Shawney changing his mind.

Shawney is pretty much a CI now.

The only way he could be evil was if Wagstaff was evil. There obviously can't be 3 FM in a ten-player game. 2 FM, 1 symp is more reasonable, but they were both at each other's throats on Day One! Maybe partners would distance that aggressively. But a symp would never make a case against his master.

Wagstaff and Shawney both confirmed each other's stories. One of them could have been lying and guessed that Piper was really a healer. But Wagstaff is the more likely liar, because he could have guessed that Shawney could only heal on even days since Shawney made his confession on odd days, whereas Shawney couldn't have guessed that healers could heal themselves. The only way Shawney could be guilty is if Wagstaff lied about being able to heal himself for his own self-protection.

I also have to leave now, so I'll just quickly vote for Melcolm.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

7 players remain: Doggett, Jordayne, Melcolm, Shawney, Vikary, Wagstaff, Waterman.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

3 vote for Melcolm (Shawney, Wagstaff, Jordayne)

1 vote for Waterman (Melcolm)

1 vote for Shawney (Doggett)

2 players have not voted: Vikary, Waterman.

[Magic Mirror]

@ Jordayne: If Melcolm comes up innocent, will you at least consider what I said? Look at what Shawney said about Wags, and then 10 minutes later changed it? (where I say he has lied)

I’m not asking you to vote either of them, just keep an open mind about the possibility.

I know I am crazy and often have crazy ideas, but I am not always wrong.

edit: added "@Jordayne"

[Magic Mirror]

It is day 3.

7 players remain: Doggett, Jordayne, Melcolm, Shawney, Vikary, Wagstaff, Waterman.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

3 vote for Melcolm (Shawney, Wagstaff, Jordayne)

1 vote for Waterman (Waterman)

1 vote for Shawney (Doggett)

2 players have not voted: Vikary, Waterman.

Why is waterman voting for himself?

[House Targaryen]

Why is waterman voting for himself?

These are not the droids you are looking for.

[Magic Mirror]

Ok, thinking just a little bit more about this: I know the two are connected. Shawney defended Spicer; Shawney was upset with Spicer’s reveal and was forced to vote him; Shawney guided Wags; Shawney backed up Wags when he claimed healer. When Shawney first claimed healer, he said :

I'm going to do something stupid and confess to being the healer.

I really don't expect to be able to use another heal after tonight, so I am going to heal Melcolm because a) he is on my team (theoretically) and b) I really want to hear who his team mate is and don't want to have to hold up the night hoping he comes back soon to reveal that. He will live until tomorrow to reveal that info.

Like I said - it's probably stupid, but this is end-game already, so what the hell.

THE HEALER. Not A HEALER.

If he had heals every other night he would have confessed to being a healer. He never mentions any of this.

I was wrong. Shawney is not an FM, he is the symp, and Wags is the FM.

Shawney knew he was a symp to Spicer, but only after Spicer’s death did he learn he was a symp to Wags. This is when his additude towards him changed. He guided Wags and then backed Wags up when Wags claimed healer too.

Shawney will come up innocent, but Wags won’t.

Change vote to Wagstaff

[House Wythers]

We can't lynch Doggett.

Any objections?

Yeah.

As I promiced to Dalt, I'll lynch whoever looks most likely to be FM, regardless of what faction he claims to belong. If this will lead to win of team Aegon, I can stand this.

And now it's time to axe Melcolm, I suppose. I doubt we will get any new info in time left.