GoT Mafia 66: Gold, Liars, Thieves, and killing Killers who Kill

[House Connington]

I don't really suspect Vikary and I just need to let it go. I can't help that part of my brain that kicks me every once in a while saying shit like this. The fact that Jordayne disappeared and didn't fight or try to come up with a viable alternative made it flare up again.

I think that was my last misgiving. I am throwing in with Vik completely at this point. The main points in my mind are that I don't think he would have gone after Arryn like he did if he were a symp. I don't think the night kill choices jive with what I've seen of him as a player if he were FM.

It doesn't look like Swann is going to be lynched today, so that leaves - as has been said - Shawney and me. I obviously will be voting Shawney, but I will be looking at Swann as well.

[House Connington]

Just to emphasize the point I made about Shawney's day 1 play compared to later days ...

I love how talkative we all are now that there's an incentive to spam. :lol:

That said, not for the pot to call the kettle black or anything, but it looks like you're trying especially hard to boost your stealing odds, Shawney. Any reason?

Struggling with comprehension?

Spam doesn't count towards odds.

Edit: Also, some people (like me) enjoy RP immensely, and, given a captive audience will perform like a trained monkey. :thumbsup:

I think the criticsim thrown a Shawny is also true for you Arryn. There have been a few serious posts but you ignore them all and just spam. Not as much as Shawney but still when are you going to contribute something worthwhile instead of just boosting your post count/

Since the days are so short, I think I'll vote for Shawney so that they are actually under pressure.

What I want to know is....you've been spamming the heck out of this game so far. Presumably, this is so that you can try to steal from someone today or tonight. So, what do you think the benefits of stealing someone's gold are? Do you want control over who gets guarded? If so, how would you decide who to guard?

Point in favor of Shawney - Arryn threw a third vote on him. However, given Arryn's playstyle (playful and taunting), his active distancing from Belmore, and the fact that most votes were RP at this point, I'd say this is a minor point.

[House Connington]

When the votes are tied at 2 each for Grandison, Shawney and Thorne, Shawney is the one who the one who puts Grandison in the lead. Belmore had questioned Waterman just prior to this and it had the net effect of casting suspicion (although small) on Grandison.

Not conclusive, as innocents want to live too, But Belmore's participation strengthens it a wee bit.

[House Connington]

Arryn starts off day 2 with a vote for Shawney over their differing opinions of what the NK/mob analysis can tell us. Swann responds to Arryn and weighs in with a wishy-washy opinion.

Waterman votes for Belmore, after Drox's case. Shawney thinks Drox looks worse for making a case on Belmore, then makes a case on Waterman and makes a point to distance from Belmore.

Swann is not really around yet, and only has a few fluffy post like this and the one after it.

Shawney defends himself against a post from Toyne and at the end gives some quick thoughts (Belmore he's neutral, no thoughts on Arryn) very kind of safe an easy ranks - but then again, not many of us were digging deep at this point. Although - he does give Toyne a plus ranking, but I think the next day he says he doesn't trust him - will have to check that out when I get there.

Day goes on, neither Swann nor Shawney are around much. Swann comes back with thoughts on some people - all the easy targets, all proven innocent.

Vikary asks 'easy target loving motherfucker' Shawney to rank a list of players and he does so. At first I thought he hadn't changed the order given from Vik, but then noticed that he moved me out of place. No deep thoughts here, but he did put Arryn, then Belmore as the most suspect. It was only out of the names Vik asked him about, so he was in no danger of having to back that with a vote, as he'd been on Waterman all day. The same question (different list) posed to Swann is answered here. Arryn is listed in middle tier of suspicion.

Just after Thorne reveals, Shawney says 'it's probably too late, but Arryn bothers me. I think it was a crosspost with Thorne, because right after that Shawney quotes and and asks for proof. Shawney's post and the general suspicion of Arryn at that point prompted me to suggest Arryn and see if people were willing to back it.

And then the end of the day lynch that has been covered over and over ... and over. I think Shawney looks worse than Swann in that vote. Swann could have said he was away from the computer when Vik asked, but he said he was around, so that is a point in his favor I think, even though he didn't participate in the proceedings.

I think Shawney looks worse overall. It's hard to say exactly, because Swann was not around as much and he was just really, really fluffy. I think Shawney's case on Waterman and the end of the day events look bad for him.

[House Connington]

In retrospect, I wish I had waited to hear the results of the attempted theft by Shawney first (since he stole from Thorne who is now dead and had no reason to lie about gold) and work it back from there. I don't know how much stock to put intot he fact that money was found, but am anxious to hear from Swann anyway.

[House Connington]

and by the way ...

I donate 2 gold to house Vikary

(yes, I'm still up - insomnia is a bitch)

[House Connington]

Still digging, but more randomly now.

I was reminded that there was some confusion about the amount of gold Shawney had at one point. Reminds me of the confusion with Belmore.

[House Connington]

The only point in Swann's favor is his healer claim and when he made it. He was able to work with Vik to create a CI. Other than that, there is just a whole lot of nothing pointing definitively one way or the other. Soft points can be made, but nothing truly convincing.

Off the top of my head:

points against

- didn't vote for Arryn nor offer up his gold (a wash, cause neither did Shawney)

- Voted for Jordayne on the day Arryn was lynched. Did eventually vote Arryn though (so did Shawney, but with more conviction)

- complete fluff post for the most part, and very little participation in the beginning

points for

- helped create a CI

I haven't really looked at specific interactions with Belmore and Arryn past day 2. Will hopefully get to that eventually.

[House Mooton]

Anyway, while I was doing the re-read, I realized that none of this really matters for today. He can't be our lynch, because he could be the Healer. If the game doesn't end today, then we want him around to possibly stop the FM tonight. So I'm going to forget about him for now, and worry about all of this tomorrow, if the game is still going on and I'm still alive.

Does he have any heals left? He said he had a limited number yesterday and that he had at least one left, but at least one could be only one. Do we want to know? (please don't answer until we've decided Swann)

I really don't feel comfortable with Swann's reveal. For starters I don't think it makes much sense in this setting. The guards already act as healers, so more of them would seem slightly unbalancing. Second, there has been no heal the whole game, and I think some of the heals would have been pretty obvious (Wagstaff, Toyne...). Finally, he didn't die tonight, and a healer with potentially a heal left is a much better target than an expended vig.

Another thing we should take into account is that there could be symps in this game. One of the reasons I think the FM might have wanted not to target Swann is that they think there's a possibility he is their symp, and quite frankly I agree with them. The healer reveal would have been gutsy for a FM, but maybe not so much for a symp. The only thing it has going for it is the timing, really. Swann has been aiming for the wrong target consistently all game.

To me this means we should treat today as end-game.

I'll have a look back at Farman and Shawney. Leaning more towards Farman right now.

[House Connington]

Swann seemed very concerned that he might be found with gold on him. He tried to make sure anything he got was sent to Vikary. It was kind of weird, but I don't know if you can make anything out of it.

Everything I'm seeing so far leans towards voting off Shawney, then Swann if necessary. Of course, YMMV.

[House Connington]

I really don't feel comfortable with Swann's reveal. For starters I don't think it makes much sense in this setting. The guards already act as healers, so more of them would seem slightly unbalancing. Second, there has been no heal the whole game, and I think some of the heals would have been pretty obvious (Wagstaff, Toyne...). Finally, he didn't die tonight, and a healer with potentially a heal left is a much better target than an expended vig.

I agree with a healer seeming out of place and that Toyne was the obvious heal.

[House Wythers]

Just after Thorne reveals, Shawney says 'it's probably too late, but Arryn bothers me. I think it was a crosspost with Thorne, because right after that Shawney quotes and and asks for proof. Shawney's post and the general suspicion of Arryn at that point prompted me to suggest Arryn and see if people were willing to back it.

Yeah, that really bothers me. I could see an FM posting something negative about Arryn at that point, thinking that the Thorne lynch was inevitable so it was a good opportunity to distance. And then getting caught by the cross-post reveal from Thorne, and not knowing what to do.

[House Wythers]

Does he have any heals left? He said he had a limited number yesterday and that he had at least one left, but at least one could be only one. Do we want to know? (please don't answer until we've decided Swann)

He's already answered this. Posted it at the start of the day -

I still have a heal left, so I could potentially buy us one extra lynch as long as I am not lynched today and I guess right on the NK target (if we are wrong about today's lynch).

I imagine you can see the self-serving part of that, but it is nevertheless true from my pov. I will vote for whomever Vikary and Jordayne agree on.

I really don't feel comfortable with Swann's reveal. For starters I don't think it makes much sense in this setting. The guards already act as healers, so more of them would seem slightly unbalancing. Second, there has been no heal the whole game, and I think some of the heals would have been pretty obvious (Wagstaff, Toyne...). Finally, he didn't die tonight, and a healer with potentially a heal left is a much better target than an expended vig.

I disagree about a limited healer being unbalancing. A CF, guards who can be bribed by either team (and are probably more likely to be bribed by the FM), and a Vig? We definitely need more firepower than that.

Also, don't forget that any of our roles could be neutralized by the FM bribing a guard. For example - Thorne would have been useful if we could use him, but the FM got one of the guards and stopped him. So that makes our roles even weaker.

That said, I do agree that Toyne should have been healed. Swann, can you tell us what action you took that night? Did you heal somebody? If so, who?

Another thing we should take into account is that there could be symps in this game. One of the reasons I think the FM might have wanted not to target Swann is that they think there's a possibility he is their symp, and quite frankly I agree with them. The healer reveal would have been gutsy for a FM, but maybe not so much for a symp. The only thing it has going for it is the timing, really.

Okay, so now you're working off of the idea we could have 3 FM + symp? That seems very overpowered for the evil team. Also, if Swann is the symp, then where are all of our good roles? We just got a Vig? The rest of the good roles are dead?

Another question - Swann wasn't under any pressure when he revealed. Yeah, the time was coming when we'd start to consider him, but at that time we were focused on Belmore and you (Jordayne). So why would he fake reveal, and risk that there was another Healer out there who could counterclaim?

And another question - his reveal allowed us to check on you through use of the Guards. He healed me, so I didn't have to worry about protecting myself, and could instead bribe the Guards to watch over you. Why would he do that if he was evil? He essentially cut down the suspect pool, making it more likely that he would be lynched. No FM would do that. And no symp would do it either, unless he was symp to me or you (the 2 people who would end up being outside of the suspect pool). I know he's not my symp, and I know he's not yours either (because you were guarded last night and there was still a kill).

Yeah, I might have guarded you anyway, without his reveal....but if I had done that, I would have been at risk to die. His way ensured that I wouldn't die. Because if he's innocent, then he was healing me, and if he was guilty then he still couldn't kill me because it would make us lynch him. So he took us from a situation where either 1) we could guard you but risk my death, or 2) we could make sure I lived but not guard you, to a situation where I was assured to live and we could guard you.

I'm glad you raised these questions, because they forced me to really think about Swann. And the clear conclusion is that he's innocent. At this point, there's no way I'd vote for him over Shawney or Farman. And as long as we lynch those 2 over the next 2 days, I'm very confident that we'll win the game.

[House Wythers]

Okay, so Jordayne wants to think about worst case scenarios. What if there is a symp? Lets think for a second.

1) I know I'm not a symp. And you all know it too - I would never have gone after Arryn/Belmore like that if I was a symp.

2) I don't think Swann is evil, based on the analysis in my last post. So he wouldn't be a symp.

3) If Farman is a symp, then Shawney is the FM. One of them is getting lynched, so we don't have to worry about this potential combination winning the game.

4) If Shawney is a symp, then Farman is the FM. Again - one of them is getting lynched, so we don't have to worry about this potential combination winning the game.

5) Jordayne is a very unlikely symp to Farman. He wrote a case against him and Arryn a few days ago. Why would he write a case based on a link between two of his FM? That would be idiotic.

That case, which was against Arryn, also should be a point against Jordayne as a symp in general. But I guess Jordayne did sort of resist the Arryn lynch after that. So just for the sake of argument, I guess I won't completely rule out the possibility of Jordayne as a symp to Shawney. Though I think it is very unlikely.

My feeling is that one of Shawney or Farman is the last FM, and we have won the game as long as they are both lynched. I don't really care much about the order, as long as they are both lynched. However, I guess if we are playing it safe, we should probably lynch Shawney today.....just in case Jordayne is symp to Shawney, against all odds.

Thoughts?

[House Mooton]

He's already answered this. Posted it at the start of the day -

Ok, missed that.

I disagree about a limited healer being unbalancing. A CF, guards who can be bribed by either team (and are probably more likely to be bribed by the FM), and a Vig? We definitely need more firepower than that.

That's one way to see it. Another is that, had we actually coordinated properly, we could have had three heals in one night. Anyway, I guess it's a matter of opinion.

Okay, so now you're working off of the idea we could have 3 FM + symp? That seems very overpowered for the evil team. Also, if Swann is the symp, then where are all of our good roles? We just got a Vig? The rest of the good roles are dead?

We've had 4 modkills and also some innocents lynched without last words. Why not?

Another question - Swann wasn't under any pressure when he revealed. Yeah, the time was coming when we'd start to consider him, but at that time we were focused on Belmore and you (Jordayne). So why would he fake reveal, and risk that there was another Healer out there who could counterclaim?

A FM wouldn't do that, a symp might. The claim battle would have distracted people from Belmore, allowed the FM to target the healer or yourself during the night... It's also a way to survive until endgame. I had already posted my case on Swann, and you said yourself it was convincing.

And another question - his reveal allowed us to check on you through use of the Guards. He healed me, so I didn't have to worry about protecting myself, and could instead bribe the Guards to watch over you. Why would he do that if he was evil?

How do you now he healed you? You just know he claimed he would do so and the FM went after Thorne. Why didn't they go after Swann? Do you agree he makes more sense as a night kill?

If he's a symp the FM wouldn't really be sure if he was what he claimed to be or not, anyway.

He essentially cut down the suspect pool, making it more likely that he would be lynched. No FM would do that. And no symp would do it either, unless he was symp to me or you (the 2 people who would end up being outside of the suspect pool). I know he's not my symp, and I know he's not yours either (because you were guarded last night and there was still a kill).

That's a fair point. It could have been poor play, but otherwise you're right here.

I'm glad you raised these questions, because they forced me to really think about Swann. And the clear conclusion is that he's innocent. At this point, there's no way I'd vote for him over Shawney or Farman. And as long as we lynch those 2 over the next 2 days, I'm very confident that we'll win the game.

If Swann was FM that would give him the victory, though, so how can you claim he wouldn't have done that ever as a FM?

[House Wythers]

A FM wouldn't do that, a symp might. The claim battle would have distracted people from Belmore, allowed the FM to target the healer or yourself during the night... It's also a way to survive until endgame. I had already posted my case on Swann, and you said yourself it was convincing.

If we had a claim battle between Healers, I think the answer would have been to leave both alive to heal me. I still bribe the guards to guard you. We still lynch Belmore, I still live through the night, and we still get to find out that you're innocent.

Lets go through a few scenarios of who the real Healer might have been, in your hypothetical Healer battle.

1) Swann claims Healer and is counterclaimed by me. Given that I had led the lynch on Arryn and was CI at that point, its instant death for Swann. Big mistake on his part, and a risk he'd be running if he chose to fake claim.

2) Swann claims Healer and is counterclaimed by Shawney. Everything happens as it has happened in the game - so we reach today with the same 5 players. You and I are CI. Swann and Shawney are counterclaiming each other. Guess what - last FM is Farman. Swann has screwed over his team with his fake reveal.

3) Swann claims Healer and is counterclaimed by Farman. Exact same analysis as #2, except Shawney is the FM this time. Again, we win.

4) Swann claims Healer and is counterclaimed by you. This would force us to change our guard action....I guess we'd have tested out somebody like Farman or Shawney instead. Lets say we guard Farman, and there is a death. We instantly know that Shawney is the FM. Same is true for the reverse if we guard Shawney - then Farman is the FM. So again, Swann has screwed over his team.

So no matter what, a counterclaim would have caused Swann's team to lose if he was a symp claiming Healer, as long as we played things out in the proper, logical way. Its way too big of a risk for him.

How do you now he healed you? You just know he claimed he would do so and the FM went after Thorne. Why didn't they go after Swann? Do you agree he makes more sense as a night kill?

Either way, his Healer claim kept me alive. If he was telling the truth or a symp, the FM would be forced to believe him and kill somebody else. If he was FM, then he wouldn't kill me, because it would prove him as a liar and get him lynched. So no matter what, his claim had the effect of protecting me from the night kill.

I do agree that he made more sense as a night kill than Thorne, if you are going completely off of which role is a bigger threat to them. However, like I said earlier, its possible that the FM felt Swann was still a bigger suspect than Thorne. I don't think anybody was even saying anything negative about Thorne at that point, outside of me still including him in my re-reads. But Swann still had plenty of doubt being cast his way.

If Swann was FM that would give him the victory, though, so how can you claim he wouldn't have done that ever as a FM?

Because he might have hoped that we'd go down this path of analysis, but he had no idea whether or not it would really happen. I don't think he'd pin all of his hopes on the chance that we'd reach these conclusions, instead of just deciding that the Healer claim was suspicious and that he was lying.

[House Baratheon]

Having internet trouble.

Now using mobile.

Innocent!!!!

Will try to Fix.

[House Wythers]

So we've got about 6 hours left to make a decision. Given the sporadic level of participation today, I'm tempted to just go with my own analysis and cast my vote, to get the ball rolling.

I'll give it a few more minutes, but if I don't hear anything from anybody else, I'll be voting for Shawney. Like I said before, for the most part, I don't care if we vote off Farman or Shawney today, as long as the other one goes tomorrow if the game continues. That said, the only possible symp - FM combination left that could hurt us, IMO, is Jordayne - Shawney. So I guess Shawney is the safe vote.

[House Baratheon]

N1=no heal (nh)

N2=heal Farman (stupid Decision)

Decided to Save last 2 charges For endgame

N5=heal vik

1 left

[House Clegane]

Shawney is next.

1) I'll start with the points I made against him earlier in the game. First one being that he spent a lot of time talking about the gold sharing plan on day 1. At this point in the game, its a minor issue, but I'll repeat what I said before - seemed like a way to contribute to the game without really saying anything of value.

2) And the other comment I made about him earlier is that he has a tendency to overexplain himself. Can't explain it more - just gives me a bad gut feeling about him.

3) When Jordayne asks if anybody would consider lynching someone other than Belmore or Arryn, he jumps in to say -

Very middle of the road opinion. He'd think about it, but he isn't sure. Yet he goes ahead and ranks the rest of his suspects, taking a step down that road.

4) He was around when we were pooling our gold at the end of day 2, but he doesn't offer any of his money to the group. Also, he chooses to keep his vote on Waterman instead of switching to Arryn. The inaction is a point against him. Meanwhile, Farman does the opposite on both issues (donates money and votes Arryn).

5) Just like Swann, he loves the easy targets. The difference between the 2 is that Swann acknowledges that he is suspicious of easy targets, and tries to explain why. Shawney, on the other hand, disagrees that he is going after easy targets, and when people argue, he concludes that he must not understand what an easy target is.

6) Aside from that, there's not a whole lot of direct evidence going against him. However, there is still a 6th point to make - there's also nothing that I can see going in his favor. He makes a case on Arryn at some point, but its only after Arryn is already one of the top suspects. Beyond that, he's not doing much of anything to find the FM. I didn't realize this until I did the re-read, but most of his posts the past few days have been short 1-2 liners where he responds to other people, mentions suspects without offering support for his opinions, and discusses the various plans that have been put forth (gold sharing, bribing guards, stealing, etc.).

Overall, there's not a lot of strong, direct evidence pointing to Shawney. But I really don't like the post I copied in point 3 above, and the rest of the case outlines typical FM behavior.

I won't get to Farman tonight. Will try to re-read him tomorrow.

1) I've pointed out previously that everyone who posted heavily during that period of time has an emphasis on that as that was the first serious point of discussion.

3) Unlike other people I can't be sure that I am correct at all times. :rolleyes: Hence, if someone seems to have a fairly strong opinion on something I will consider it.

4) I've already explained to you why I didn't donate gold. I'm glad you include my explanation for it in your case. I'm also not sure why I would be expected to switch my vote from a strong vote on Waterman with a case, to Arryn, someone who I felt was starting to look suspicious, but I hadn't examined in as much depth. I'd consider it more suspicious if someone jumped from case to case with no validation.

5) I still don't think I've had a proper explanation of what an easy target is. From the indications of what people have said so far, an easy target seems to be someone who can be lynched?

6) I'm not sure that there's nothing in my favour. I don't think I've gone out of my way to do anything to try and gain favour.

One point I want to make about Shawney is that for a self-proclaimed spam-monkey, his behavior has changed markedly from day 1. He has become very careful and proper and his posts don't have the playfulness that his day 1 spam did. He is the proverbial "English Gentleman in the midst of a tavern brawl'

I think the difference is that RP doesn't require thought, proper play does. I have my two different Edward de Bono hats for different game stages.

I have no idea how a NK on Thorne helps me at all - quite the opposite.

Having said all this, I don't currently really suspect Farman that strongly, and I have more issues with Swann, but as has been said, I'm not sure how Swann as an FM would work correctly. I'm also still keen on hearing what he has to say about his heal prospects.