GoT Mafia 66: Gold, Liars, Thieves, and killing Killers who Kill

[House Baratheon]

Will heal vik tonight

[House Mooton]

Having said all this, I don't currently really suspect Farman that strongly, and I have more issues with Swann, but as has been said, I'm not sure how Swann as an FM would work correctly. I'm also still keen on hearing what he has to say about his heal prospects.

So who do you think is the last FM? Care to actually make a case or give us something to work with?

[House Wythers]

I'm also not sure why I would be expected to switch my vote from a strong vote on Waterman with a case, to Arryn, someone who I felt was starting to look suspicious, but I hadn't examined in as much depth. I'd consider it more suspicious if someone jumped from case to case with no validation.

That's a fair response. I had forgotten that you were the one who started the case on Waterman. Guess I can't expect you to just abandon that. Maybe at the end, after Waterman had removed vote and not cast it on the next best alternative (Arryn)....but that whole couple of minutes was pretty rushed.

That said, the fact that you didn't vote for Arryn still remains. Even if you had a plausible reason to stay on Waterman, and it makes sense if you are innocent, it also makes sense if you are evil.

5) I still don't think I've had a proper explanation of what an easy target is. From the indications of what people have said so far, an easy target seems to be someone who can be lynched?

No offense intended to anybody with this response. But I consider an 'easy target' to be somebody who is suspicious by virtue of their style as much as their actual actions in the game. Somebody who seems new, confused, unable to express themselves well, etc. Also, often somebody who hasn't posted much.

And yes, if everyone suspects the person, that is a factor as well. But usually the above points are needed first. Meaning - you could be the first person to jump on the easy target, and then everyone could end up agreeing with you. Doesn't have to be you agreeing with the general opinion of the group.

Anyway, for me, none of this really matters at this point. I'll be basing my vote off of numbers and logic.

[House Wythers]

Will heal vik tonight

Thats good enough for me. If you're lying and I die tonight, then I assume you are somehow the last FM, in spite of all my reasoning to the contrary, and everyone will lynch you tomorrow.

And if you're telling the truth, then I'll be here to cast the deciding vote in the other direction.

Makes feel quite comfortable with this decision. Shawney

[House Clegane]

So who do you think is the last FM? Care to actually make a case or give us something to work with?

I'm working on something now.

[House Connington]

I'm here. Will vote, but will give Shawney a bit of time to post what he's working on.

[House Connington]

Just a nit-pick

That's a fair response. I had forgotten that you were the one who started the case on Waterman. Guess I can't expect you to just abandon that. Maybe at the end, after Waterman had removed vote and not cast it on the next best alternative (Arryn)....but that whole couple of minutes was pretty rushed.

That said, the fact that you didn't vote for Arryn still remains. Even if you had a plausible reason to stay on Waterman, and it makes sense if you are innocent, it also makes sense if you are evil.

When I pointed this out (that the Arryn/Thorn mob was actually the Waterman/Thorn mob) you pretty much dismissed me. :tantrum:

[House Clegane]

OK here goes:

Yesterday we had the following people alive when Swann made his healer claim:

Swann

Thorne

Shawney

Belmore

Vikary

Jordayne

Farman

Belmore was set to be lynched, and I would say that in terms of general suspicion, Thorne, Vikary and Farman were less suspicious overall than me and Swann. The NK would come and then it was looking quite probable that Swann and I would be the last 2 lynches to win the game for the innocents. Although there was no strong pressure on a healer claim, there was pressure. Also, I would argue that a healer claim any later into the game would be seen as being in response to pressure and be less likely to be believed. If Swann is an FM, at this point they have very little chance of winning. However, by claiming healer, he puts himself into a position of trust, and as an FM is able to mirror a healer's effect, as well as ensure he won't be guarded. A problem would come in that there have been some very obvious heal opportunities that have been missed, but he conveniently "made a mistake" in healing Farman, and then decided to keep the heals until the end game.

The thing that bugs me about the NK on Thorne is that, not only does it not make any sense for me, it also doesn't make any sense for Farman to have done it. On the other hand, it does make sense for Swann. Swann knows he can't kill Vikary (he couldn't kill Vikary anyway before the claim so there is no loss for him here), so kills off someone who was VPI by my book.

The only problem I can see with a healer claim is the possibility of a counter claim, but, as I've said, there have been some fairly blatant opportunities to heal gone begging, and to be quite honest, I did not think there was a healer in the game at the point he claimed.

Couple all of this with what Jordayne has said, and I am starting to think that the events of recent times only make sense if Swann's healer claim is fake.

Swann

[House Wythers]

Just a nit-pick

When I pointed this out (that the Arryn/Thorn mob was actually the Waterman/Thorn mob) you pretty much dismissed me. :tantrum:

Well, actually, my response was that each of those people had the opportunity to switch to Arryn, and they all chose to remain on Waterman over Arryn. And that still holds true - hence, my comment to Shawney that his decision is still very plausible for a FM, even if it also has a possible innocent explanation.

[House Connington]

And just a question, since we're at this point, is the reason you're voting Shawney only because Jordayne thinks Swann *might* be his symp? Can you really not choose between Shawney's and my play on merit alone?

[House Connington]

I'm gonna vote now, any problems with that?

[House Wythers]

Belmore was set to be lynched, and I would say that in terms of general suspicion, Thorne, Vikary and Farman were less suspicious overall than me and Swann. The NK would come and then it was looking quite probable that Swann and I would be the last 2 lynches to win the game for the innocents. Although there was no strong pressure on a healer claim, there was pressure.

I don't recall Farman being less suspicious than you and Swann. He was right there with both of you.

Couple all of this with what Jordayne has said, and I am starting to think that the events of recent times only make sense if Swann's healer claim is fake.

Swann

I know I've already said it, but its worth repeating. I won't be voting Swann today. So you'll need to convince both Jordayne and Farman, if you really want to lynch him.

[House Connington]

Shawney, the night kills have not made much sense to me all game and the Harclay kill kind of set the stage. I think the only ones implicated were me and Toyne, and I knew it wasn't me, Toyne was my most trusted, so I've kind of been dismissing that line of thought. One of my first thoughts on why Swann was still alive was that he was being set up, but if an FM were being tricky, abstaining from his kill would have been the obvious choice.

[House Clegane]

I don't recall Farman being less suspicious than you and Swann. He was right there with both of you.

I was actually basing this mainly off what I considered your opinion to be. I was under the impression you have been pretty consistent in your consideration of Farman as less of a suspect than me and Swann. :huh:

[House Wythers]

And just a question, since we're at this point, is the reason you're voting Shawney only because Jordayne thinks Swann *might* be his symp?

No, thats not the reasoning. It's because I decided to consider the symp possibilities, to play it safe. And I realized that the only possible symp - FM combination that could hurt us (as long as we lynch one of Farman/Shawney today) is Jordayne - Shawney. So Shawney is the logical vote for today, and if he's innocent, we still have time to lynch you tomorrow.

Can you really not choose between Shawney's and my play on merit alone?

I could make a decision if I had to. But why bother? It would mean re-reading your 200+ posts, which just sounds like unnecessary work to me. Logic and numbers should be good enough to win this game.

[House Connington]

Well, I'm just going to vote anyway cause Shawney won't be swaying me.

Shawney

[House Clegane]

Shawney, the night kills have not made much sense to me all game and the Harclay kill kind of set the stage. I think the only ones implicated were me and Toyne, and I knew it wasn't me, Toyne was my most trusted, so I've kind of been dismissing that line of thought. One of my first thoughts on why Swann was still alive was that he was being set up, but if an FM were being tricky, abstaining from his kill would have been the obvious choice.

The N1 kill doesn't really have to make sense though, unless the FM decide to go alt-hunting. The Harclay NK may have been an attempt to make you and Toyne look bad. I've noticed myself that some players take too much of early NKs.

[House Clegane]

Well, I'm just going to vote anyway cause Shawney won't be swaying me.

Shawney

Was there any point in saying you'd wait for me if you couldn't be swayed? :tantrum:

[House Connington]

OK, I get that. I'm just getting frustrated because I feel I've played a fairly good game - assuming Shawney is FM - and I am relegated to the alternative lynch at end game :/ The main reason I wasn't on board with Arryn for that whole thing is that I was much more focused on Shawney and Belmore.

[House Wythers]

I was actually basing this mainly off what I considered your opinion to be. I was under the impression you have been pretty consistent in your consideration of Farman as less of a suspect than me and Swann. :huh:

I suspected Farman less at one point. When I made my tiers, way back on day 2 or 3, he was a tier below you and Swann. But that was mostly based on him offering up his gold in the chaos at the end of day 2. Since then, we've gotten plenty of other information, and I'm not certain how I'd have ranked the 3 of you prior to Swann's reveal.