AGoT Mafia 71 - Rebellion in Hell

[House Velaryon]

Basically you're just saying you don't find either of two players suspicious.

Exactly. Would you like it more if I found one of them suspicious? A guilty evidently would.

No, you avoided giving controversial opinions.

Really? Wasn't refusing to vote Levi controversial at that point? Somehow I thought I stopped the momentum which could make Levi toast already.

Anyway, I like your game slightly better as of now, so and I'm willing to give you a pass. For now.

Thanks, but I can't return the favor. I feel worse about you again after you've moved your vote to safe silent Asmodeus. What do you think about Sammael and Gaga?

[House Baratheon]

Reading over things, I find the people such as Beezle and Mastemas consecutive posts saying they disliked Baphomets lists, because they seemed to be trying to appear to contribute without doing so, to be rather lacking. The argument there just seems like it's just grasping at straws. A few people had mentioned they found it irritating, but there's a difference between something being irritating and something being scummy. The lists are just spam, but I find it hard to believe that any scum would seriously think that posting something that is so obviously spam would make people think they were contributing.

My thoughts on Levi and Beezle.

Prior to Beezles vote, the thing most people commented on with Levi was his mention of Baphomet. Beezle then votes him to "get things started". So it's a serious vote. Except a couple of posts later he mentions not knowing who Lucifers bit about Levi mentioning of baphomet referred to, which to me, really doesn't add up.

Beezle goes on to mention that Levis reaction seemed scummy, and talks about how people don't take symp clues seriously etc.

What really isn't making sense to me is that, for someone voting Levi and talking about symp clues, he doesn't realise who Lucifer is talking about, when Lucifer is one of the people who called Levi out on his post seeming odd.

Aswell as this, within the same post he calls Levis vote "Fair enough" and then goes on to say that his "OMGUS vote isn't helping". "Fair enough" isn't exactly how I would refer to a vote I thought was purely OMGUS.

I also dislike that for his vote which is trying to get things going, he gives no reasoning until called out on it.

I don't particularly find Levis sarcastic response to be really scummy. I still think him a more likely symp than scum. If you look at beezles response, he mentions it would have been safer for Levi not to respond, since the person accused of being the master is more likely to be lynched anyhow. I can't say this makes sense for me.

1. If Levi is innocent, and it's not a symp clue, then it makes sense for him to try and stop us wasting a lynch on someone purely because he mentioned them in passing.

2. If Levi is a symp, and it is a symp clue, it makes sense for him to react. As Beezle points out, it is more likely to get him lynched, as opposed to his master.

3. If Levi is scum, I find myself struggling to believe he wouldn't be a little more cautious in throwing out a random name. And even if he did make that mistake, I still expect scum, who are trying not to get lynched, would do exactly as Beezle suggested and not react, if they sat back and thought about it.

Levi does not seem to think his posts through, which to me suggests he is less likely to be scum.

I think beezlebub wanted simply to appear to be contributing by being the one who started things getting serious. It jars for me that he didn't understand Lucifers post while happily talking about symp clues. I dislike his lack of explanation with the vote, and disagree with the reasons he gave later.

[House Velaryon]

This is quite a tough decision for a mod to make and all, but I declare that he gets to live, as he posted before I made this announcement.

Wholeheartedly support this. Rules are rules, but modkilling a player who is around and posts is just out of spirit.

Mammon, hope you won't betray our expectations.

[House Dayne]

Also, what the hell happened to Belphegor?

I've been busy. Causing strife and all that.

(Real life sucks right now. Had a very busy morning watching a project that somebody else in my firm wrote get torn to shreds, and then get dumped on my desk. I have to clean up his mess somehow. It's a disaster.)

Anyway, trying to catch up on the game.

Starting with Astartoth's attack against Beelzebub from a while back -

1) I don't like that you brought this point up after several people complained about Baphomet's list posts being annoying. Both the players you mentioned suspecting--Baphomet and Leviathan--are the closest things that pass for easy targets in this game so far.

...

[Re: Leviathan case] Define "oddly." How did his response stick out to you? (I have my own thoughts about Leviathan--I see he posted while I was writing this, and there are definitely things worth commenting on there--but I'd like to hear you answer this first.)

Agree with both of these points. When Beelzebub made that post, my first thought was easy targets, and not enough detail. Seemed like a lazy way to contribute. I was actually okay with Beelzebub's response later on, but still, my first impression about his post was negative.

Anyway, I don't think there is a symp clue hidden in your list. I think that if you are a symp and you have any sort of a plan then it's to create a big distraction that won't endanger your masters.

If there's a symp clue there, it's likely in the order of the players being listed. That would be the simplest way of sending a message. He didn't use alphabetical order or some other easy way to explain the list. So he could have listed the players randomly and grouped his FM together. It's something only they would notice.

Two posts back you were quoting Astaroth's response to Beelzebub's case, which came after Leviathan's. It just seems odd that you backtracked to look for a reason to vote.

I think this is a good point about Azazel. And his explanation didn't ease my suspicion. Seemed like he was just trying to wave you off.

Belial worries me a little. His take on Bapho's list is a contraction. He claims that the list is a poor idea for an inno because it creates a distraction for the FM

But earlier on he was actively encouraging it:

He's worries that it is a distraction but keeps the topic alive himself more than once.

The post below is a little funky too, Belial claims that Mastema is turning his joke vote, serious at the start of his paragraph then calls him out for avoiding a serious vote in the same breath.:

Mastema's comment is not strong enough to warrant such a reaction, if there's any seriousness to it at all:

His concerns about Mastema could just as well apply to himself, he is making a big stink over very little. Looking at this and his interesting take on Bapho's list, he's top of my list atm.

Belial

Astartoth just pointed this out, but I was going to make the same point (seems like I agree with him a lot) - this case sucks.

Levi isn't that much agressive, but he made a sort of a case on Belial, who wasn't suspected by anybody before. I won't expect this from an evil in three-sided. Cerwyn Bible teaches us that an evil won't start a case in three-sided. And best thing about it is that an evil can't go against it even if he knows it by heart, without risking being night-killed.

Making a bad case like that isn't going to put Leviathan at the head of any night kill list. Especially when he was already a suspect, and I'm pretty sure he was already getting votes from people at that point.

up to your last line I am completely in agreement. I am presuming that your comment was based on the idea that Lev was guilty? If he's innocent/SK he certainly wouldn't care about being the NK target.

The SK has to worry about being targeted too. We've had a few games where the FM target the SK, fail to kill him, and then reveal his identity later when one of the FM is about to be lynched. The SK is a threat to them, and they will get him lynched if they don't see any downside to it. Of course, the SK in that situation can argue he is BP or was healed or whatever, but it probably won't save him.

[House Velaryon]

Astartoth because I don't like the role fishing

Are you sure you don't confuse him with Azazel? Or do I confuse?

[House Baratheon]

Wholeheartedly support this. Rules are rules, but modkilling a player who is around and posts is just out of spirit.

Mammon, hope you won't betray our expectations.

Trust me, I'm a demon.

[House Mooton]

First noone posts for ages and then everything happens at once.

Astaroth, what problems do you have with my posts?

Lady Gaga: wasn't it Azazel not Asteroth you accused of role-fishing?

Just going to read over the contributions from Mammon, Berith and Belphagor now.

[Magic Mirror]

Exactly. Would you like it more if I found one of them suspicious? A guilty evidently would.

And how do you have such good insight on who is guilty and who isn't? To answer your question, however... I would have preferred if you actually found someone suspicious, yeah.

Really? Wasn't refusing to vote Levi controversial at that point? Somehow I thought I stopped the momentum which could make Levi toast already.

You do?

Thanks, but I can't return the favor. I feel worse about you again after you've moved your vote to safe silent Asmodeus. What do you think about Sammael and Gaga?

The point against Asmodeus isn't as much that he's silent but that he doesn't really say anything, if that makes sense to you. Sammael still has to return from wherever he went and contribute and Lady Gaga is currently voting Astoroth for something that Azazel did, which tells you just how much attention she's putting into the game. As you can imagine it's not something I'm overtly enthusiastic about, though whether it points towards innocence or guilt I cannot say.

ETA: To contribute my 0.02$ to the Cerwyn's Bible debate, the safest player for an FM to attack in a CF game with two killing teams is one of his partners.

[House Dayne]

I have to go for a bit (again). They just called another meeting at work.

I'll be back well before the lynch.

[House Velaryon]

Trust me, I'm a demon.

Perhaps, but you look like careless demon. Why you kept mentioning Lucy in your previous post? AFAIR, Lucy was absent at the moment. Did you meant Astaroth?

[House Velaryon]

I would have preferred if you actually found someone suspicious, yeah.

That early? Sincerely, you would trust a person who jump on one of first two trains more than somebody who prefers to gain more info before doing anything?

The point against Asmodeus isn't as much that he's silent but that he doesn't really say anything, if that makes sense to you. Sammael still has to return from wherever he went and contribute

Hasn't Asmodeus to return also? I don't remember him being here in last 12 hours.

ETA: To contribute my 0.02$ to the Cerwyn's Bible debate, the safest player for an FM to attack in a CF game with two killing teams is one of his partners.

:)

[House Mooton]

Perhaps, but you look like careless demon. Why you kept mentioning Lucy in your previous post? AFAIR, Lucy was absent at the moment. Did you meant Astaroth?

There is no need to call me Lucy!

I think he did mean I, Lucifer, though. I wrote a slightly obscure footnote about Lev's oddly mentioning Bathomat out of thin air, immediately after the 'symp clue' post.

[House Connington]

Beezlebub your posts make my head hurt. I read through that last one three times and I'm still not sure if you're making a point.

The feeling is mutual. You were telling Mephisto that he was applying CB too rigidly. You mentioned that Lev risked being the SK/FM target by voting Belial (with the idea that Belial would retaliate for the vote). I don't get what you meant there. If you are assuming that Lev is guilty in that scenario, then he wouldn't be the FM target (the FM don't target their own and they know the SK is BP). If the SK thought that Lev was guilty (regardless of whether the SK is Belial or not), I don't think there was any reason to think that made him a greater target for the SK. Despite what others have said, I presume that the SK wants to keep the killers around for a bit so that they can provide cover and help reduce the overall pool. Let's say that there are only 2 FM. If the SK manages to get one today or tomorrow, there is a huge risk that we will find the partner and the SK will be left alone to face a large number of innocents with potential roles to boot. Even if there are 3 FM, the odds aren't much better. Once we find the first FM, our odds go up dramatically. So, your point about Belial retaliating (under the assumption that Lev was guilty) did not make sense to me.

What is the point you are making here?

I agree he wasn't in danger of being lynched at that point. I disagree he wasn't under pressure. He was getting serious votes/disapproval from several people. It's a big danger on day 1 that because there isn't much to go on, one or two unfortunate posts can stick. Unless someone makes a case which is more appealing, his mistakes can easily dog him to the end of day. Looks quite likely to happen here. The only way to get pressure off is to look like a contributor or for an alternative lynch to form (making a case on someone increases the chance of both these).

Well, to me, if there is no danger of being lynched, then there is not really any pressure. I certainly agree that if nothing else significant happened, Lev could end up as the lynch option.

I agree, but you seem to be just repeating the obvious/what you already said. Filler fluff. How do you feel about Mephistopheles?

I'm not a fan of his viewpoint, but he certainly has ramped up his participation since being challenged, and that is helpful.

[House Connington]

The SK has to worry about being targeted too. We've had a few games where the FM target the SK, fail to kill him, and then reveal his identity later when one of the FM is about to be lynched. The SK is a threat to them, and they will get him lynched if they don't see any downside to it. Of course, the SK in that situation can argue he is BP or was healed or whatever, but it probably won't save him.

Good point.

[House Velaryon]

There is no need to call me Lucy!

Sorry. It was too tempting.

I think he did mean I, Lucifer, though. I wrote a slightly obscure footnote about Lev's oddly mentioning Bathomat out of thin air, immediately after the 'symp clue' post.

Ok, understood. I don't suspect you, still.

[House Baratheon]

Yeah, what he said.

Lucifer mentioned the symp clue post as odd.

I personally found it odd that Beezle had to ask for clarification about what he meant, when he was voting for the person in question, and went on to talk about symp clues in relation to him...

[House Corbray]

So no one has a problem with Leviathan's OMGUS vote other than me? <_<

Right now my biggest problem is to tell you all apart. I probably should start making notes to get an overview of who has said what.

I like the recent contributions of Mammot (right decision not to modkill him), Baphomet and Mephistopheles. Mephisto is too rigid in his opinions though. His explanation about CB and his declaration that Levi would have been toast if he didn't turn the tide are exaggerated. Nonetheless I can see where he's coming from. Only his sudden drop of suspicion on Levithian and Baphomet is irritating me. As others explained, it is too early to use the CB profile on anyone. Still, I don't think that an evil player would make such an odd move without any pressure. I'm actually trusting Mephisto more because of this.

Lady GaGa's vote on Astartoth is funny. :P

I still have to think about the cases on Sammael and Mastema. I was also worried about Belphegor's absence, but I see he has returned so I hope he will give us some input finally.

[House Mooton]

Sorry. It was too tempting.

Apology accepted, Fisty.

Yeah, what he said.

Lucifer mentioned the symp clue post as odd.

I personally found it odd that Beezle had to ask for clarification about what he meant, when he was voting for the person in question, and went on to talk about symp clues in relation to him...

I can understand why it seems odd he didn't click. But why is it a sign of guilt?

We really need to be getting on and lynching someone soon. I'm still waiting on Sammael.

Azazel: Belphagor made a contribution already. Also, I would vote Leviathan because I don't feel he is trying to find the guilty. I didn't like his retaliatory vote nor his case on Belial (who I have good feelings about). Easy choice or no, there is plenty enough there to worry me. And it's not that nobody has defended him either: there are a few posts which could be interpreted as attempts to protect him.

[House Velaryon]

So no one has a problem with Leviathan's OMGUS vote other than me? <_<

No. Everybody and their dog do put OMGUS votes, it isn't a sign of the guilt.

Only his sudden drop of suspicion on Levithian and Baphomet is irritating me.

Oddly, when I suspected these two votes, nobody supported me. But immedeately after I dropped those suspicions, everybody started telling me how it was wrong to drop. Though it was mostly gut-feeling, poorly justified suspicions.

Sounds like unsupported cases are in fashion nowadays.

Same way, almost nobody commented on my vote on Gaga...

[House Corbray]

I wanted to make some artifical comments about the recent discussion, but I'm too tired to concentrate. Guess it has to wait until Saturday. Sorry for that, folks! :frown5: