AGoT Mafia 71 - Rebellion in Hell

[House Thorne]

In fact, after I've remembered we are in three-sided, my suspicions on Bath's and Levi's votes significantly lowered. Both these votes don't fit Cerwyn Bible profile.

For now, I vote Lady Gaga, for unexplained talk about her posting level and for failing to vote her suspect.

I don't get this. Bath maybe I can see, but how is Leviathan an agressive or leading poster?

[House Velaryon]

I don't get this. Bath maybe I can see, but how is Leviathan an agressive or leading poster?

Levi isn't that much agressive, but he made a sort of a case on Belial, who wasn't suspected by anybody before. I won't expect this from an evil in three-sided. Cerwyn Bible teaches us that an evil won't start a case in three-sided. And best thing about it is that an evil can't go against it even if he knows it by heart, without risking being night-killed.

[House Mooton]

I'm pretty sure you're misunderstanding this. I think both the original context and her follow up post make it clear that she meant "vote off the low posters, other than me." It's kind of a joke and, in fact, an acknowledgment that her suggestion is somewhat hypocritical.

This I can agree with, however. After stating that on day one we should pressure the low posters the obvious thing to do would be to vote for one of them.

A feeling I had before was that Lady Gaga didn't care too much what people thought of her. She seemed pretty laid back. I liked this brazen attitude as it came across carefree and devilish, not as if she was afraid of a lynch. However I agree she lacks follow through in the form of votes. Another example is her suggestion that Azazel could have been role-fishing, quite a serious accusation* had it been followed up with a vote.

* I find it reflecting worse on Lady Gaga than Azazel, myself - I thought Azazel's observation was a good one.

Levi isn't that much agressive, but he made a sort of a case on Belial, who wasn't suspected by anybody before. I won't expect this from an evil in three-sided. Cerwyn Bible teaches us that an evil won't start a case in three-sided. And best thing about it is that an evil can't go against it even if he knows it by heart, without risking being night-killed.

There are no rules. You're being far too dogmatic here. Lev only made his 'sort of case' when he was attracting votes himself: it is the obvious defensive move. Fair enough he could risk being night-killed if Belial is an SK/FM, but that's better odds than taking the chance of getting lynched on day 1 because he failed to show himself able to contribute (much more likely).

[House Connington]

Levi isn't that much agressive, but he made a sort of a case on Belial, who wasn't suspected by anybody before. I won't expect this from an evil in three-sided. Cerwyn Bible teaches us that an evil won't start a case in three-sided. And best thing about it is that an evil can't go against it even if he knows it by heart, without risking being night-killed.

I always hesitate to use CB as "gospel". In this case, Lev was already called out and voted against. then a few reacted to his OMGUS vote, and I think that put Lev in a position (guilty or innocent) of having to do something to contribute. An evil in that case no longer has the luxury of following the CB profile. An evil in that situation also might be hard-pressed to go after low-posters because that pool likely contains his fellow killers. Bel did not seem suspicious to me, and Lev's case did not convince me. I recognize that day 1 cases uniformly suck, and I do appreciate his effort to look elsewhere, but I don't think that CB exonerates him at all in this situation.

[House Stokeworth]

Levi isn't that much agressive, but he made a sort of a case on Belial, who wasn't suspected by anybody before. I won't expect this from an evil in three-sided. Cerwyn Bible teaches us that an evil won't start a case in three-sided. And best thing about it is that an evil can't go against it even if he knows it by heart, without risking being night-killed.

I agree with Lucifer on this one. Cerwyn's Bible is the ideal approach if you don't want to be NKed, but it is no longer a good way to avoid being lynched. Any scum needs to balance these considerations and so will probably abandon the bible to some extent. The SK needs to worry less about NKs and could ignore the bible completely.

[House Thorne]

Levi isn't that much agressive, but he made a sort of a case on Belial, who wasn't suspected by anybody before. I won't expect this from an evil in three-sided. Cerwyn Bible teaches us that an evil won't start a case in three-sided. And best thing about it is that an evil can't go against it even if he knows it by heart, without risking being night-killed.

We can't treat the Cerwyn Bible as word of god in this game because the SK has no fear of being night killed. It would only apply to the FM's actions. Also, where does it state that a FM wouldn't start a case?

From the Mafia Wiki:

This is a strategy/player profile referring to games with 2+ factions that kill at night. It is applicable to any situation in which evil teams have to fear the other team such as cultists who kill FM if they try to recruit them, two mafia teams, or a mafia team and a serial killer.

Whiskeyjack: In a game with 2 evil factions, an evil player who knows he can be killed by the other team will tend to avoid a leadership position, and avoid showing himself to be among the best players, because he doesn't want to be killed. He'll be more under the radar - he doesn't have to be the quietest...he just needs to be less aggressive and less of a threat than some of the other players.

I just don't see how this excludes Leviathan at all. Besides isn't the evils doing something unexpected how they win most games? ;)

[House Velaryon]

There are no rules. You're being far too dogmatic here. Lev only made his 'sort of case' when he was attracting votes himself: it is the obvious defensive move.

Well, I remember a few killers who were unable to make a case even if pressured up to highest degree.

However, I don't claim Levi to be VPI or something; I just keep him at the average level of suspicion, where almost everybody is. I might easily vote him as a compromise, but Lady Gaga, Sammael and lowest posters look like better choices.

[House Velaryon]

Cerwyn's Bible is the ideal approach if you don't want to be NKed, but it is no longer a good way to avoid being lynched.

Well, it never was a good way to avoid being lynched. From the very beginning.

[House Stokeworth]

Well, I remember a few killers who were unable to make a case even if pressured up to highest degree.

I don't get why any killer would do this. If someone is pressured to the highest degree and still refuses to make a case don't they become the obvious lynch for that day? Being NKed should be the last of their worries.

ETA:

Well, it never was a good way to avoid being lynched. From the very beginning.

True, but now that it's been used for a while, middle of the road, under the radar, and general low posters are always viable lynch candidates.

[House Mooton]

Lady Gaga, Sammael and lowest posters look like better choices.

I just went back to look at the lowest posters, was going to give Mammon a piece of my mind when I noticed (I think) that he's only a few minutes off being modkilled. Anyone want to double-check that? (His last post is post 33)

Berith has said nothing of note.

And it's high time Mastema came back to answer Belial's accusation.

[House Velaryon]

I don't get why any killer would do this. If someone is pressured to the highest degree and still refuses to make a case don't the become the obvious lynch for that day?

I don't get it either, but it happens. I don't want to name particular players, but excellently remember a game where I, being an innocent leader, plainly said to a suspect: "Make a case against anybody, otherwise I'll lynch you". He failed, we lynched him, he turned up guilty.

Perhaps he understood that making a poor case won't help him anyway?

We still lose that game, to the last member of the third faction....

[House Baratheon]

I am here, sort of caught up.

[House Connington]

There are no rules. You're being far too dogmatic here. Lev only made his 'sort of case' when he was attracting votes himself: it is the obvious defensive move. Fair enough he could risk being night-killed if Belial is an SK/FM, but that's better odds than taking the chance of getting lynched on day 1 because he failed to show himself able to contribute (much more likely).

up to your last line I am completely in agreement. I am presuming that your comment was based on the idea that Lev was guilty? If he's innocent/SK he certainly wouldn't care about being the NK target. I agree that he has motivation to contribute in this situation, regardless. He wasn't really in much danger of being lynched at that point. 3 votes is not nearly enough for pressure when you need 8 to lynch. Too much time left at that point to worry about a speedlynch as well.

As far as Mephistopheles' point is concerned, I think it's a good idea to lynch someone who refuses to make a case, or at least list suspects. I don't recall that ever happening, but in any event, that player is either a non-helpful innocent or an evil. As far as Lev is concerned, I don't think his case/vote against Belial should qualify under Mephistopheles' theory.

[House Redfort]

I'm struggling to catch up with everything I've missed, but I just want to comment on something.

Well, I remember a few killers who were unable to make a case even if pressured up to highest degree.

I know I've been in the position as a killer where I've frozen under pressure and been unable to think of a good case on the spot. But come on, maybe that happens on Day Three or Four when the suspect pool is narrowed and there aren't any better targets. No killer gives up after two semi-serious votes in the beginning of Day One. On the contrary, I believe that under a bit of pressure, a killer is more likely to feel like he has to contribute something and make a weak case just to look helpful. When everyone accused his vote on Beezlebub as being OMGUS, he moved to another target. And to be blunt, his case was pretty bad. He came across as if he was stretching details against Belial. I'll just give a couple of examples:

Beelzebub's explanation of his suspicions re me sound sincere, if they had been included in his initial statement he wouldn't have roused my suspicion as much.

Belial worries me a little. His take on Bapho's list is a contraction. He claims that the list is a poor idea for an inno because it creates a distraction for the FM

But earlier on he was actively encouraging it:

How is seriously questioning someone on an inconsistency in their posts (which could point at a possible partnership) actively encouraging his list posts? I don't see the contradiction here.

(By the way, Belial, what are you current thoughts on Baphomet? I dif notice you seem to go back and forth on him a lot. You also waver a lot on the validity of symp clues.)

He's worries that it is a distraction but keeps the topic alive himself more than once.

The post below is a little funky too, Belial claims that Mastema is turning his joke vote, serious at the start of his paragraph then calls him out for avoiding a serious vote in the same breath.:

His concerns about Mastema could just as well apply to himself, he is making a big stink over very little. Looking at this and his interesting take on Bapho's list, he's top of my list atm.

Belial

I don't need to explain why "making a big stink over nothing" is light-years away from what Belial is accusing Mastema of. I don't have issues with Belial's vote. I'll admit that when I saw Mastema claim his vote on me was semi-serious (combined with the fact that he also sheeped Baphomet and never answered my jokey SK accusation), it raised an eyebrow. But I gave him the benefit of the doubt because there wasn't much else for him to comment on at the time, and besides, I wasn't exactly the most unbiased source. But saying you can't even see Belial's point is strange.

Also, a word on CB: Cerwyn's Bible is a nice trick for strong players who look innocent even as FM to stay under the radar. But if a killer already looks lynchable, why are you going to make yourself look more lynchable. The moment Leviathan made that OMGUS vote on Beezlebub, he pretty much kissed all chances of being NK'd goodbye. At that point, FM!Leviathan would now have to worry more about looking innocent to the innocents than non-threatening to the SK. Besides, if I were an SK, I'd try to take out the FM first (note to SK: hint hint HINT HINT HINT HINT), because they're the biggest threat if they make it to endgame. So I don't think we should limit ourselves to players who fit the CB profile, and not just because they might still be the SK.

I'm worried that he's a little too easy, and I'd really like to explore other directions today if I have time before work (I started a huge post commenting on random stuff that stuck out at me, but my project team is going to kill me because I've been gone for so long), but I'd support a Leviathan lynch at this point.

And it's high time Mastema came back to answer Belial's accusation.

I have problems with a few of your posts, Lucifer, but I second this wholeheartedly. Mastema, come back here.

Also, what the hell happened to Belphegor?

[Magic Mirror]

Indeed I was participating. You may think I wasn't contributing enough, but you can't deny I've made a serious post at the time. Since it definitely wasn't joke post.

You did, I assume you mean this one:

Well, there are innocent links in mafia, but you can't should different these from guilty ones, so should avoid following any of them.

On topic: I agree with Beelzebub that Levi's post was fairly overdefensive. However, at the modern times we assume overdefensiveness isn't a sign of guilt. I don't want to vote either of them.

Basically you're just saying you don't find either of two players suspicious. Beelzebub because Levi was indeed being overdefensive, and Leviathan because being over defensive doesn't really mean anything. I'm not sure I'd assume being overdefensive is not suspicious myself (and you certainly seemed to imply Beelzebub was justified in thinking so).

Toiptoeing? Do you imply I avoided giving opinions on any points available at the time? And how do you know that I would jump on a bandwagon instead of creating one? Even I don't.

No, you avoided giving controversial opinions. Anyway, I like your game slightly better as of now, so and I'm willing to give you a pass. For now.

I just went back to look at the lowest posters, was going to give Mammon a piece of my mind when I noticed (I think) that he's only a few minutes off being modkilled. Anyone want to double-check that? (His last post is post 33)

Berith has said nothing of note.

And it's high time Mastema came back to answer Belial's accusation.

I would also include Asmodeus in this list, and in his case it's slightly more worrying because he seems to be around quite a lot.

[House Redfort]

I would also include Asmodeus in this list, and in his case it's slightly more worrying because he seems to be around quite a lot.

I agree with this. I find that a lot of the active posters have made the occasional argument that leaves me scratching my head (more on that later), but at least they're contributing and give off the appearance of trying to find the FM. Asmodeus has been a textbook active lurker. Has he made a single post that was more than a paragraph long?

[House Tully]

Oh wow. I've been trying to catch up and I'm getting seriously lost and struggling to remember who is who. However, through all my muddling, the only real impression to date is that I don't particularly like Azazel and Mephistopheles.

Regarding Mephistopheles, I always have severe doubts about anyone who has rules about what FM do and don't do. To me it smells of agenda. Focusing people down only one set of things that an FM can do leads to tunnel vision, as well as obviously trying to push people down certain lines of thought, which will probably be towards someone they want to lynch and possibly away from someone they want to protect. It also gives FM carte blanche to win the game, just by doing something against their short term best interest they can clear themselves and give themselves an advantage in the longer term.

Azazel's vote on Leviathan rang bells with me. I appreciate that others noted this too, but I just didn't get why the vote was made at all, and I felt there was some stretching, although that's slightly excusable on Day 1.

Mephistopheles

[House Targaryen]

Current Mammon has been modkilled.

However, regarding his replacement and such, I'll use the last game's policy in a feeble attempt to save my perfect balance from crashing.

So, the alt is still alive, although uninhabited. If I manage to find a replacement by the end of day 1, it will continue living. It can still be voted.

Please, if you know or have contact with someone you think could step in, spread the world.

Satan has spoken.

ETA: Shit.

This is quite a tough decision for a mod to make and all, but I declare that he gets to live, as he posted before I made this announcement. It's my fault for not being around at the time.

[House Mooton]

Beezlebub your posts make my head hurt. I read through that last one three times and I'm still not sure if you're making a point.

I am presuming that your comment was based on the idea that Lev was guilty?

Yes.

If he's innocent/SK he certainly wouldn't care about being the NK target.

Nope.

I agree that he has motivation to contribute in this situation, regardless.

Yes, you said pretty much the same thing yourself.

He wasn't really in much danger of being lynched at that point. 3 votes is not nearly enough for pressure when you need 8 to lynch. Too much time left at that point to worry about a speedlynch as well.

What is the point you are making here?

I agree he wasn't in danger of being lynched at that point. I disagree he wasn't under pressure. He was getting serious votes/disapproval from several people. It's a big danger on day 1 that because there isn't much to go on, one or two unfortunate posts can stick. Unless someone makes a case which is more appealing, his mistakes can easily dog him to the end of day. Looks quite likely to happen here. The only way to get pressure off is to look like a contributor or for an alternative lynch to form (making a case on someone increases the chance of both these).

As far as Mephistopheles' point is concerned, I think it's a good idea to lynch someone who refuses to make a case, or at least list suspects. I don't recall that ever happening, but in any event, that player is either a non-helpful innocent or an evil. As far as Lev is concerned, I don't think his case/vote against Belial should qualify under Mephistopheles' theory.

I agree, but you seem to be just repeating the obvious/what you already said. Filler fluff. How do you feel about Mephistopheles?

[House Wythers]

I hadn't voted earlier, because I was sure I would have plenty of time to keep up with this. However, it seems TFI Friday doesn't apply just because it's Friday, so...

Astartoth because I don't like the role fishing a lot more than I don't like the vote by Baphomet.

I haven't read anything since I last posted, sorry for that.

I really hope I'll be back within the next 6 hours (ie before Day One ends).