AGoT Mafia 71 - Rebellion in Hell

[House Dayne]

I'm starting to (further) question my theory that an FM would definitely be on the day 1 lynch mob. Looking back the final vote count, I can't help but notice that all of the remaining suspects who were off the mob were also not around for the end of the day - including Gaga, Mammon, and Meph (the 4th person off the mob was Azazel, who wasn't here and wasn't going to vote for himself). So it ends up being an empty theory, because the people not voting never had the opportunity to vote.

Going to have to find another way to figure things out.

[House Dayne]

Overall, a good feeling with Astartoth. I hope they come back soon to join in the discussion as they tend to post quite sound stuff and ask people questions about their comments. Solid stuff to get discussion going, I must have a letter A complex to have voted Astartoth instead of Azazel.

Would Astartoth's partner say he had a good feeling about her?

Also, would he accidentally vote for his partner, instead of another player (Azazel)? I'd think that he would be extra careful to not do something like that.

Going to drop Gaga a bit on my FM suspect list.

[House Dayne]

I'm about half way through day 2.

I also dislike the Asteroth/Belphegor exchange after the day timed out.

Asteroth comes back and calls people incompetent and pathetic for missing the lynch even though he wasn't present. It's hardly as if the no lynch was because of lack of trying by those who were around.

Then Belphegor responds by attacking Asteroth for not being around, something most likely out of his control.

Both the posts strike me as off. I mean, attacking someone for failing to lynch isn't constructive at all, nor is responding by attacking someones schedule.

Of the two posts, Asteroths strike me as most likely to be scummy.

After all, Belphegors response, while unnecessary imo(why not just point out it was hardly his fault, as they quite obviously tried to get a lynch?), was just a reaction to Asteroths. As well as which, attacking someones lack of time hardly makes him look more innocent.

Whereas Asteroths post, which makes him look angry that we failed to lynch, makes it look like he has a genuine anger about missing the lynch. Which serves to make him look more innocent, which I don't trust.

This sort of clashes with my general opinion of Asteroth, who made a rather good point about Asmodeus, and struck me as playing quite honestly with his forewarning about his abscence.

That one post in particular did strike me as being rather fake, and I'd like to hear why he really felt it was necessary to post that though.

Mammon makes a long post about a very minor issue relating to Astartoth. Could easily be distancing.

I'm also trying to decide if this reflects well on Astartoth. As we know Masty joke voted Asta and then changed it to a serious vote for "obvious lynch-wagoning" (Asta was the third joke vote on Lady G). He stayed on Asta all day which is odd for a distancing vote. But since Masty was modkilled I think we can assume he was genuinely distracted so it's possible that he never got the chance to check back in and remove what was supposed to be a distancing vote. Also, Asta was never really in any danger.

I suppose the vote on Asta could also be seen as minor protection for Lady G.

Alright, those are all the links I can wring out of Masty just now.

Belial speculates about the votes between Astar and Mastema. Doesn't come to any conclusion.

The only reason Asta might look better is because I assume Masty knew he was going to be away and leaving a vote on a partner and disappearing is potentially dangerous. It's pretty weak, I acknowledge.

But then he suggests something that indicates Astar was innocent (though he does admit that it's weak).

But Mastema has barely posted, and most players have not so much as mentioned him in their posts. Therefore, the player who has the most interesting interactions with Mastema is not necessarily his partner. Often, inexperienced FM ignore each other altogether. Mastema's partners could be low-flyers like Berith or Mammon, in which case we'd never be able to spot any links. And if Mastema is the serial killer, then we might as well be chasing ghosts.

Astar speculates that Mastema's partners "could be" quiet players like Berith or Mammon. Might be a good spot to create some small bit of distance if Berith/Mammon is an FM partner.

In all honesty, though, I guess I just like Azazel. I've agreed with most of what he's said all game. I mentioned earlier that I thought Azazel came off better than Lucifer in their exchange--I understood what he meant by that "backtracking" vote on Leviathan, and why he left Mephisto and Mammon off his lists of non-contributors. And I think that today his play has improved. My only problem with him is that (to agree with Asmodeus of all people :() his choices of suspects haven't been particularly daring.

Astar directly states that she likes Azazel. Not what I'd expect from a partner.

[House Dayne]

Okay, let's start with tiers:

Most suspicious: Leviathon, Asmodeus, Berith, Mammon

Moderate suspicion: Belial, Astorath, Baphomet, Azazel, Lady Gaga

Less suspicion: Mephistopheles, Belphagor

The FM killed Beelzebub. A team of Astartoth and Meph would have had no reason to kill him, unless they were just targeting somebody who wasn't a top suspect (but even then, why kill him instead of somebody like Belial?).

Makes me drop Meph down the FM suspect list a bit.

[House Velaryon]

Back here. Don't intend to claim a role. Don't intend to anwer Mammon's "case" since it's nothing different from Berith's yesterday case.

Belphegor, why are you so sure that Astaroth was vig kill and Beelzebub FM kill? Why not vice versa? They both were trustable, hardly lynchable players, rather alike. Only thing that really differs them is CF result.

[House Dayne]

Belphegor, why are you so sure that Astaroth was vig kill and Beelzebub FM kill? Why not vice versa? They both were trustable, hardly lynchable players, rather alike. Only thing that really differs them is CF result.

Umm....because the FM wouldn't kill another FM?

[House Stokeworth]

Back here. Don't intend to claim a role. Don't intend to anwer Mammon's "case" since it's nothing different from Berith's yesterday case.

Belphegor, why are you so sure that Astaroth was vig kill and Beelzebub FM kill? Why not vice versa? They both were trustable, hardly lynchable players, rather alike. Only thing that really differs them is CF result.

Also, I'm pretty sure that Baphomet would have told us if we'd made the wrong assumption. As the Vig, he ought to know.

[Lady Gaga]

Umm....because the FM wouldn't kill another FM?

I suppose the FM could have killed the SK, but it's not as likely. We can find out easily enough who Bapho killed when he gets back, and will know if the SK is still around by tomorrow.

[House Dayne]

Made it through the rest of day 2.

Furthermore, there are so many suspicious low-flyers that it's giving the FM a lot of cover. Mastema's flip implies at least some of the baddies are among the lurkers. So although I agree we should consider the guilt of active, protown players who haven't done anything overtly scummy, they're not my priorities for today.

Astar wants to focus on the quiet players, at least on day 2.

1-Agree umpteen times with everyone who suspects Berith. His non-contribution alone isn't the problem. His tunnel vision on Mephistopheles fits the profile of the FM who clings to one target for days and days until that target is gone. Also didn't like that he tossed out this weak attack:

on Beelzebub without supporting it with quotes. It reads like a lazy FM who's barely skimmed the thread and doesn't know what the cases are, so speaks in vague generalities. If you're going to plant a seed of doubt against someone like that, then give examples of where Beezle has been wishy-washy in his suspicions or not provided strong opinions. Otherwise, you're just mudslinging.

Also makes a wishy-washy, non-defence defence of Leviathan:

IIRC, people already mentioned that this suggests a Berith-Leviathan link.

Attacks Berith, and Leviathan to a lesser degree. No vote to go with it. Could be to blend in, or could be distancing.

4-This is for both Belphegor and Lady GaGa. Both of them have apparently thought that I'm the greatest thing since sliced bread all game, even though I've barely contributed so far. I mean, it's flattering and all...but given that my posts usually don't inspire fawning minions (particularly not in players who know how to think for themselves), it's also a wee bit disconcerting. At this point, is there anything--anything at all--you disagree with me about?

Claims that Gaga and I are agreeing with her too much. Kind of ridiculous, since I had accused her of something a few hours before that. Anyway, point here is that it stands against a partnership with Gaga - FM partners don't typically call each other out over stuff like this.

So wait, the only reason you suspect Baphomet is because of the gender slip?

Questions Mammon about his suspicion for Baphomet. Could see this as distancing.

I think Asta has been been pretty consistent in his attack on Asmo and I think a significant proportion of the reason Asmo is in the trouble he's in now can be attributed to Asta. So, yes, I think that Asmo should feel threatened by Asta. I felt even better about the whole business once Asta finally voted and I acknowledge that the long delay in placing his vote didn't help his case. Still his reasons for not voting seemed genuine. I was going to say that the worst thing you could say about Astartoth is that he's a bit tunnel visioned. But I don't think even that is accurate. Instead, I think the worst thing you can say about Astartoth is that he doesn't interact with others a lot. He tends to enter the thread, make a big post, and leave again. This is presumably due to his time constraints but I find it far easier to get a read on someone if they get involved in a bit of back and forth.

Belial sort of defending Astartoth. Astar wasn't in trouble at the time.

FM Tiers:

Baphomet, Asmodeus, Leviathan,

Mammon, Berith, Mephistopheles,

Azazel, Beelzebub*,

Astaroth, Lady GaGa, Belphegor.

*I have to reread Beelzebub and he may move up to tier two once I make some decisions about his contribution.

SK Tiers:

Mephistopheles, Asmodeus,

Baphomet, Mammon, Berith, Leviathan,

Azazel, Beelzebub, Astaroth, Lady GaGa, Belphegor.

Belial has Astar at the bottom of both his FM and SK tiers.

Astaroth - not very suspicious, but sometimes a bit too cautious and worried about his image.

...

Ok, let's form this into tiers:

1. Leviathan, Mammon

2. Asmodeus, Berith, Belphegor

3a. Beelzebub, Lady GaGa, Belial

3b. Mephistopheles, Baphomet, Astartoth

Tiers 3a and 3b are almost equal.

Azazel has Astar at the bottom of his tiers.

My tiers:

Bapho, Belial, Mephistopheles

Berith, Beezlebub,

Azazel, Asmodeus, Mammon

Gaga, Belfagor, Asteroth

Leviathan has Astar at the bottom of his tiers.

After writing out my thoughts, above, I'm rewritting my SK tiers to this.

SK Tiers:

Mephistopheles, Asmodeus, Beelzebub,

Leviathan, Azazel, Baphomet,

Mammon, Berith, (Belphegor, Astaroth, Lady GaGa.)

Beelzebub jumps up significantly for much the same reason as Meph. Mam and Berith drop down, as explained above. Az pops up due to his lack of strong opinions but high post count (noted earlier). Baph drops down a little due to notable abrasiveness.

Asta and Lady G are at the end because they both contributed significant cases which looked like they might be trying to push the day along. I'm really not confident with this decision, nor am I quite certain where Belphegor belongs... hmm...

Belial still has Astar at the bottom of his SK tier.

I'd normally expect a FM to put a partner higher on his suspect list. But it's also possible that after a few people put Astar at the bottom of their tiers (like Belial and Azazel did), then a later poster (like Leviathan) could have felt comfortable doing the same thing.

[House Dayne]

I suppose the FM could have killed the SK, but it's not as likely. We can find out easily enough who Bapho killed when he gets back, and will know if the SK is still around by tomorrow.

The SK is bulletproof. Did you forget that? I explained all this in my first posts of the day.

[Lady Gaga]

The SK is bulletproof. Did you forget that? I explained all this in my first posts of the day.

:blushing:

[House Velaryon]

The SK is bulletproof.

Ah, now I see.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

9 players remain: Azalel, Baphomet, Belial, Belphegor, Berith, Lady GaGa, Leviathan, Mammon, Mephistopheles.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

1 vote for Berith (Leviathan)

8 players have not voted: Azalel, Baphomet, Belial, Belphegor, Berith, Lady GaGa, Mammon, Mephistopheles.

[House Targaryen]

I shall use this double post to remind you that we at the SH would like some insight into your thought process.

[Magic Mirror]

Checking in briefly, as I have quite a lot of work (as in the stuff I'm actually paid to do :P) to do.

Just for the record, I did target Astartoth, though that much should be obvious because he died at night.

Just some quick thoughts before I leave:

1) The fact that the FM killed Beelzebub tonight makes me think that they're responsible for killing Sammael, since both Lucifer and Beelzebub have been on the same mob as Astartoth. (apparently everyone who votes Leviathan dies :uhoh: )

I agree the night kills seem to point towards Leviathan. With two killing roles out there I'd expect there to be at least one healing role on our side (who should obviously keep their mouth shut...). I guess that's what's keeping the FM from targeting leader players like Belphegor or Belial. Another factor to take into consideration is that the FM don't want to waste a kill on the SK.

2) Astartoth has been the 4th vote on Leviathan, so Levi is likely innocent. That also means that Belphegor is likely innocent, since his flashmob on me makes little sense if he didn't want to protect Leviathan.

I disagree.

3) The day 2 analysis depends on Mastema being the SK or the FM. I agree with Belphegor that there are most likely 3 FM or 2 FM + a symp out there. If Astaroth had two partners, at least one of them should be on the Asmodeus mob. If he had only one partner, things get more difficult.

The problem with a symp in a game like this is what happens to him after his masters die and the game goes on as we hunt the SK. Since this question has no suitable answer in the rules I'd tend to think there is no symp. We'll know tomorrow if Mastema was the SK or not, but I'm definitely leaning towards FM, since Astartoth distanced from him (and admitted as much).

On an unrelated note, what are the odds of both FM voting their partner for distance at the same time?

I agree, which is one of the reasons why I don't think you're the remaining FM.

This would seem odd if Lady G were part of that crew.

Remember lady Gaga was supposed to vote Azazel, not Astortoth. The points Belphegor makes as to why she's likely innocent are good ones, though.

The FM killed Beelzebub. A team of Astartoth and Meph would have had no reason to kill him, unless they were just targeting somebody who wasn't a top suspect (but even then, why kill him instead of somebody like Belial?).

Can you fit the night 1 kill into this?

My current favorite remaining FM candidates are Leviathan and Mammon. I specially didn't like Mammon's opening post (Mephisto and Belphegor?). I guess I might be blinded by Mephisto's unwavering support of me, though if this was an FM tactic it turns out it wasn't a good one. Anyway, I trust Mephisto and I distrust Mammon, so...

Hunting down the SK is going to be a pain. It could be an active FM hunter like Belphegor or Belial or it could be... bah, most anyone.

I'm slightly suspicious of Belial because of his refusal to acknowledge my Astortoth suspicions. I agree it wouldn't make much sense for a FM to dismiss it so happily, but for a SK that thought I was on to something it was definitely the right move.

[House Wythers]

Mephisto and Belphegor seem to be the people that I trust least here. Belphegor just seems too helpful, prompting people with useful questions etc.

With Mephisto it's harder to put my finger on. Rather than seeming too helpful, he seems like he is actively trying to appear useful. In fact, this was commented on pretty early in the game, when someone called him on putting himself as one of the people contributing lots, when he hadn't really done so.

Mephisto seems to post a lot of questions, making it look like he is discussing something, but really not adding anything new, as well as short posts which also add nothing.

Funny. You didn't seem to have a problem with Astartoth asking lots of questions (and Astertoth did ask a lot of questions). I think the only post I can find where you comment on Astertoth is this one:

I also dislike the Asteroth/Belphegor exchange after the day timed out.

Asteroth comes back and calls people incompetent and pathetic for missing the lynch even though he wasn't present. It's hardly as if the no lynch was because of lack of trying by those who were around.

Then Belphegor responds by attacking Asteroth for not being around, something most likely out of his control.

Both the posts strike me as off. I mean, attacking someone for failing to lynch isn't constructive at all, nor is responding by attacking someones schedule.

Of the two posts, Asteroths strike me as most likely to be scummy.

After all, Belphegors response, while unnecessary imo(why not just point out it was hardly his fault, as they quite obviously tried to get a lynch?), was just a reaction to Asteroths. As well as which, attacking someones lack of time hardly makes him look more innocent.

Whereas Asteroths post, which makes him look angry that we failed to lynch, makes it look like he has a genuine anger about missing the lynch. Which serves to make him look more innocent, which I don't trust.

This sort of clashes with my general opinion of Asteroth, who made a rather good point about Asmodeus, and struck me as playing quite honestly with his forewarning about his abscence.

That one post in particular did strike me as being rather fake, and I'd like to hear why he really felt it was necessary to post that though.

As far as I can tell, Astartoth never answered you, and you never asked the question again. Seems a bit pointless to be making this comment in the end, really.

I'd like to hear what Mephisto's got to say about himself. If it wasn't for him, we could well have lost Bapho and his vig powers with him, so I'm leaning toward trusting him atm.

That's a silly summation. Managing to choose between two innocents does not make you more innocent.

His blatant refusal to vote suggests he had more information than you did. I think he may be able to VPI himself. if he claims nothing when he returns I will agree with you but I think there's more to him.

One, it's more likely to suggest that he's stubborn. Two, are you calling Meph out for a role claim simply because he didn't want to lynch Baphomet yesterday? Hi, FM, here's the guys you need to kill. This one, this one and that one over there.

:shocked:

[House Corbray]

I'm back and still a bit tired. Will post some thoughts soon.

Today I will focus on Belial, Mephistopheles, Lady GaGa, Mammon and Berith who are all possible partners to Asteroth.

[House Corbray]

I agree the night kills seem to point towards Leviathan. With two killing roles out there I'd expect there to be at least one healing role on our side (who should obviously keep their mouth shut...). I guess that's what's keeping the FM from targeting leader players like Belphegor or Belial. Another factor to take into consideration is that the FM don't want to waste a kill on the SK.

I was joking here. I think that Leviathan looks pretty clean when we consider that Astartoth hopped on his mob, leading us to the following vote count:

5 votes for Leviathan (Sammael, Beelzebub, Azalel, Lucifer, Astaroth)

2 votes for Astaroth (Mastema, Lady GaGa)

2 votes for Azalel (Belphegor, Baphomet)

2 votes for Lady GaGa (Asmodeus, Mephistopheles)

1 vote for Beelzebub (Mammon)

1 vote for Belial (Leviathan)

1 vote for Mastema (Belial)

1 vote for Mephistopheles (Berith)

The one problem I see with my theory is that Astartoth was herself an option with two votes, but I don't think she was in any serious danger (especially if Mastema is her partner). Still, she could have voted Lady GaGa or me instead of Leviathan, but chose to push that mob which makes a partnership Astartoth/Leviathan unlikely.

I disagree.

You disagree about the Asta/Levi partnership or about Belphegor?

The problem with a symp in a game like this is what happens to him after his masters die and the game goes on as we hunt the SK. Since this question has no suitable answer in the rules I'd tend to think there is no symp. We'll know tomorrow if Mastema was the SK or not, but I'm definitely leaning towards FM, since Astartoth distanced from him (and admitted as much).

If you weren't CI already I'd have a look at your stance regarding the symp discussion on day 1.

I do also think that the 3 FM scenario is more likely.

I agree, which is one of the reasons why I don't think you're the remaining FM.

Could you explan this a bit further? When did Belial vote for Astartoth?

Remember lady Gaga was supposed to vote Azazel, not Astortoth. The points Belphegor makes as to why she's likely innocent are good ones, though.

I agree with that.

[House Corbray]

Funny. You didn't seem to have a problem with Astartoth asking lots of questions (and Astertoth did ask a lot of questions). I think the only post I can find where you comment on Astertoth is this one:

As far as I can tell, Astartoth never answered you, and you never asked the question again. Seems a bit pointless to be making this comment in the end, really.

Yep, I already stated that in my Mammon reread. He's not known for following his cases. It's also strange that Astaroth didn't comment on this, as she did so with many other issues.

[Magic Mirror]

I was joking here. I think that Leviathan looks pretty clean when we consider that Astartoth hopped on his mob, leading us to the following vote count:

I still disagree. At that point in the day it looked like Leviathan was going to be lynched. Astartoth had three options:

1) Hop on the Leviathan train.

2) Vote for someone else.

3) Lurk.

If Leviathan was his partner and he thought he was going to be lynched then option 1 is by far the most reasonable.

If you weren't CI already I'd have a look at your stance regarding the symp discussion on day 1.

I think I said your numbers were sound. I rethought my stance, though.

Could you explan this a bit further? When did Belial vote for Astartoth?

Never, but both he and Astartoth voted for Mastema.