Mafia 72.5 - Down In The Projects

[House Targaryen]

Carver has apparently sent someone a text message saying that he won't have access to a computer for the next few hours.

I'm torn, because I can't find a PM asking for an extension anywhere, but I'd rather not ruin the game with a modkill. I wish DJ was here.

If people have any agreements or disagreements with letting Carver live, PM them (don't discuss it in the thread).

DJ is here and DJ has authorised the extension, as Detective Carver made DJ Mod aware of his time constraints this week before the game began.

As advised, if you have a problem with this then don't hesitate to take it up via PM.

[House Targaryen]

Mina-mod taking possession of Burrell's body: Carver has until 7:00 PM EST (about an hour and fifteen minutes) to get back to the thread and make a post before we drop the axe. (And don't think we won't do it, you know. I'm still bitter over wasting time writing a modkill scene for nothing.)

[House Dayne]

McNulty seems by far the scummiest of my top tier, though I'm also unsure about Bubbles (they are bickering an awful lot at the moment; I hesitate to say "distancing" but that could easily be the case; Bubbles's case on McNulty is comprehensive but weak, and could be a deliberate attempt to... what's the opposite of damning with faint praise? Redeeming with a crappy accusation?)

McNulty was the first to lead the charge on that Avon lynch, despite switching back and forth while the mob was gathering, and an awful lot of what he's done since has been defensive or wishy-washy. Many of his recent posts have been little more than bitching about dubious play or weird reveals, and then there's been all that back'n'forth with Bubs. I won't vote just yet as I want to see the Carver CF, but if nothing drastic happens before the morning then I'll almost certainly vote McNulty.

[House Stokeworth]

A modkill is a god-damn disaster.

Basically, it means that if Carver is innocent, we are at end game.

At end game unexpectedly, with 9 hours on the clock.

Seeing as a modkill would leave us with 6 players, I'd suggest we go to night if Carver comes back innocent. 5 and 6 are equal in terms of lynches (one :stunned: ) but gives us another day to actually do the frantic endgame re-reads on top of re-reads and stuff.

I wasn't on Stringer yesterday because I believed that you were the healer. You thought you were likely to be targeted so you called BP. I was on you last night because I thought you would heal Stringer and reveal today. I had your back in case it failed.

After Stringer died, I then came to the conclusion that you were saying in your final post that you wanted to take a gamble and were actually saying that you were going to withhold your heal and it made sense, you were actually calling for someone else to cover Stringer so that you could save your heal and use it on him today. You were willing to take a chance that the FM wouldn't risk trying to kill a BP. It seemed painfully obvious and I felt like an absolute idiot.

I revealed because I was short on time and I needed clarification on this which you haven't provided.

My original thought made sense because we would have had no NK and you could have claimed your role. My thoughts after Stringer died worked if you were taking a risk based on the assumption that you were gambling that there'd be somebody like me around.

If neither is true I have trouble trusting you.

Your reveal timing was bad which is why made my first response was to question it, then I came to the conclusion that the only sensible explanation for it was that you were the healer, so I quickly made a case to support that because I didn't want to draw attention to the possibility.

The problem I had with your reveal as BP was that it provided a convenient excuse for you surviving the night if you are FM and that problem still stands. Not to mention the fact that it opened up the possibility that somebody (me or somebody else as healer)would make a mistake and leave Stringer exposed.

If you still claim BP I need a detailed explanation of why you would reveal when you were a likely target for NK and could have given us something concrete to work with.

I am finding it hard to trust you at this point.

If you are BP and that is all, why did you make the quote below, which could clearly be misleading, not to mention super confusing for any potential heal role out there?

Why claim today? Simple. We're almost in end game so need all the information we can get. Now the killers can choose between either killing our VPI or removing my bulletproof-ness.

Even if they choose to kill me tonight (knowing or otherwise), we don't gain anything for it. That's why I first asked if there was any likely scenario where we could gain a heal. We'd need them to target me AND a heal to be pulled off.

On the other hand, if a healer is now alive, then the night after we have a no kill they need to heal me. If I had waited for a no kill to claim then it could have been a risky FM stunt. By doing so now, if no-one dies tonight we know I'm no longer BP, and therefore I'm the most likely next night kill too.

My plan only works if I'm healed and if everyone knows what's going on because it goes some way to proving that our roles are likely what we say they are, which hopefully they are.

If we get really lucky the FM test it and we have no NK, but this is probably unlikely.

If I was horribly mistaken about your being the healer, which you had coded and all, then there is no point in my protecting you.

If you are a healer then I'm asking you to take another gamble and trust me to protect you.

If you still claim BP I can't afford to waste myself protecting you, either you survive because your telling the truth or because you're FM.

[House Redfort]

Sorry all. I lacked enthusiasm yesterday, so I generally had my focus elsewhere. Today was an extremely busy and stressful day with no internet access until now and I have things going on tonight as well. I'll do my best to get caught up and post until I'll have to leave again for about 16 hours (in about...5 or 6).

[House Stokeworth]

ALl right, if every claimant told us the truth, we'd have the followins setup:

Innocents

1 vig

1 BP

1 martyr

7 RI

FM faction

2 FM

SK faction

1 SK

The vig and the BP role combined is a two-sided sword in a three faction game. If Stringer had tried to kill Hauk, we would have been in trouble. It might also be possible that one of the FM is also BP. Their faction looks a bit too weak in this scenario. They should have at least one additional role. Or a symp.

Hmmg, so yes, I think there could be a myrtyr in a game like this. What frightens me, however, is the thought that Daniels was the martyr and the FM learned of that role when they tried to kill Stringer o night 2. But then, would they risk a heal when there was still a chance that we might let the SK use his kill?

If there is a martyr are you saying there is unlikely to be a healer also, if so I feel even worse...

Remember when you asked me about role fishing? Well I sort of was because I wasn't sure if I could be the equivalent of a healer in this game, and I needed to have an idea of whether Carver's claim made sense knowing we had myself and a vig. I guess I was role fishing and when I responded to your question I tried to explain why in my answer to you regarding when it might be OK to do so.

I am not very knowledgeable about role distribution but I thought martyr would balance out Vig and act as healer and we could also have a guard, so I was on Carver that night too, because I thought he'd revoked his claim to deter an NK. That's why I was so pissed at him.

I thought that a BP was perhaps a little under powered for the innocents, which is why I thought the possibility of Hauk being a healer fitted.

I have been poor protection for Stringer because I've tried to look to far into what other potentially roled players mean by their actions and reading too much into things. If nothing else I've learned a valuable lesson about working with the information to hand and not making assumptions.

[House Connington]

I was honest with my claim. I am not a healer.

As I said, I made the claim because I strongly doubt we have a healer or a guard, and as such felt that the time where I could win us an extra lynch (or the chance to use D's night kill) had passed. My power was essentially useless (would block one night kill, but we'd then end up choosing to go to night the next night anyway because of odd/even rule). Therefore the best it could do is offer up more information.

Well, that and stop anyone with a psuedo-healer type power from, say, assuming there was a real healer because of my extremely obvious, unsubtle code.

Admittedly, if I had been the healer, I probably would have claimed BP yesterday too. However, I would have healer Stringer, so...

Okay, so this isn't end game. Therefore while we can't take risks, we can afford to be less scientific than usual.

So, rather than re-read everything now and REALLY suffer in the morning for it, I'm going to do something I hate. I detest. I feel has no place in a logical game like Mafia.

I'm going with my gut.

McNulty showed all the signs of an over confident FM thinking they had the win wrapped up. A plan to lynch one, then the other? When two mis-lynches away from an embarrassing defeat?

Can I wrap it up in a nice iron clad case? No. However, it feels right. And the defence to it feels wrong.

I'll be back before the deadline anyway.

[House Connington]

I also have to say that Bubbles reaction to realising that I was being honest is far too... Genuine... for me to see it as anything but genuine right now, so I'm adding him onto Team PI.

[House Redfort]

As I had said before the game started, I just don't have the time or energy to play starting last night really. Tomorrow night might be different, but I cannot do anything tonight.

[House Dondarrion]

Bubbles has me convinced with the rolefishing issue. He has been very sensible about it, and if he had a similar role it might make sense.

Bubbles, just to explain why I think a BP is more likely than a healer in a setup like this:

It's because the healer is the more powerful role, even if it's only one-time. The healer is able to heal a revealed player (=vig), and he can also PI himself by revealing afterwards. The chance of this happening is rather low, but it's possible and you have to take this into a balance calculation.

The BP is only able to help himself. Furthermore, as I already explained, he can be targeted by the vig which makes our innocent roles not only useless, but hurtful. The balance is better, even if it's unstable.

[House Dondarrion]

A modkill is a god-damn disaster.

Basically, it means that if Carver is innocent, we are at end game.

At end game unexpectedly, with 9 hours on the clock.

Seeing as a modkill would leave us with 6 players, I'd suggest we go to night if Carver comes back innocent. 5 and 6 are equal in terms of lynches (one :stunned: ) but gives us another day to actually do the frantic endgame re-reads on top of re-reads and stuff.

I don't get you. If Carver would be modkilled, we are down to six. We go to night, and then we are five players left. This seems to be a horror to you.

This sounds a bit, uhm, dishonest, when we consider that you were pushing a Carver lynch for all of day 3 and that he has been suspected by you over the course of day 2 already. Because you know, if we'd lynch Carver we were down to six, the FM kill someone and tomorrow we have five players and we are also at endgame, assuming Carver is innocent. It's just the same, only that Carver would have shot himself instead of us doing that dirty job.

That's why I'd like to get a very detailed version of your thought process. Why do you panic about the modkill when you're apparently convinced that Carver is evil? I expect no one to be happy about a modkill, but from your PoV it wasn't a too bad a thing, because Carver was your main suspect. So why do you suddenly assume that he is innocent? Carver's CF won't change just because he gets modkilled.

[House Clegane]

McNulty - unless I missed it by not going back far enough (Day 3, before your Bubbles re-read today) then I saw nothing to suggest you were thinking about a Rawls/Bubbles partnership. Please point it out to me.

See post #552, the very end.

[House Clegane]

McNulty showed all the signs of an over confident FM thinking they had the win wrapped up.

Why would I feel overconfident at that point? There were no votes on Carver except mine. Out of those who suspected Carver yesterday, Stringer was dead, Bubbles turned around on me, you hesitated. A few players expressed suspicions on me. If I was evil, I should be desperate by probable fail of my plan, not overconfident.

[House Connington]

I don't get you. If Carver would be modkilled, we are down to six. We go to night, and then we are five players left. This seems to be a horror to you.

This sounds a bit, uhm, dishonest, when we consider that you were pushing a Carver lynch for all of day 3 and that he has been suspected by you over the course of day 2 already. Because you know, if we'd lynch Carver we were down to six, the FM kill someone and tomorrow we have five players and we are also at endgame, assuming Carver is innocent. It's just the same, only that Carver would have shot himself instead of us doing that dirty job.

That's why I'd like to get a very detailed version of your thought process. Why do you panic about the modkill when you're apparently convinced that Carver is evil? I expect no one to be happy about a modkill, but from your PoV it wasn't a too bad a thing, because Carver was your main suspect. So why do you suddenly assume that he is innocent? Carver's CF won't change just because he gets modkilled.

It takes the choice out of our hands.

You might be fine with that. I'm not.

[House Dondarrion]

It takes the choice out of our hands.

You might be fine with that. I'm not.

I thought you weren't talking about choices, but about "OMG, we're suddenly almost at endgame". I could understand this reaction after getting Carver's innocent CF, but not before. Until the modkil announcement you've been pretty sure that he would come up evil, that's why you voted for him. Your panic only makes sense if he would come up innocent though. That's quite a contradiction IMO, and it cannot be explained by prefering to have choices.

[House Connington]

I thought you weren't talking about choices, but about "OMG, we're suddenly almost at endgame". I could understand this reaction after getting Carver's innocent CF, but not before. Until the modkil announcement you've been pretty sure that he would come up evil, that's why you voted for him. Your panic only makes sense if he would come up innocent though. That's quite a contradiction IMO, and it cannot be explained by prefering to have choices.

Firstly, when i checked the timer claimed 8 hours (or -8 hours, i could have misread it and it might not have been re-set) left. It was around an hour or two (i think?) to the modkill, and night in europe. So we'd have the choice of that lynch taken away (harmfull), but worse yet, short of going to night (my suggestion) I thought we'd have something in the region of 6 hours between getting the result and lynch deadline, which for endgame (and at that time of day) would be a total disaster. Any lynch pushed through would be terribly thought through.

edit: So yes, i thought iut's come up evil. However if it came up innocent, the mod kill would have been FAR worse than a lynch, if i was right about the times.

[House Dondarrion]

Right now I'm willing to accept both claims. Hauk's claim yesterday made sense, and Bubbles' claim seems to make little sense for a baddie.

I disagree with Hauk's theory that McNulty has a reason to be overconfident. The mass of claims reduces the suspect pool by a certain amount: it leaves Carver, Greggs, Hawks and me. And McNulty, of course.

So if McNulty is evil, he and his partner don't have much space to hide. They also have to kill Bubbles and Hauk first. That means they're not able to kill the rest. If McNulty is as desperate as I'm saying, it means that his partner is also not in a safe position.*

That rules out Hawks as a possible partner from my PoV. Leaves Carver and Greggs. If it's Carver, it might have been a try to draw a line between them. Either Carver gets lynched (and Carver would be lynched instead of Hauk) and McNulty looks better or McNulty gets lynched and Carver looks better.

What I don't understand is why McNulty is still trusts Hauk's claim, but not Bubbles' and Carver. What the hell has Carver to do with it at all anyway?

McNulty, are you sure you meant Carver - or did you mean Hauk?

ETA:

* somehow I lost my line of thought as I was writing this point. I wanted to say that if McNulty and co felt like they're trapped, McNulty has a good reason to broaden the suspect pool by getting the claimants back to it.

[House Clegane]

What I don't understand is why McNulty is still trusts Hauk's claim, but not Bubbles' and Carver.

I don't trust Hauk's claim either, but I think he is innocent nevetherless. For now, I try to ignore all claims and evaluate those players by other factors. Agree thatunder such approach Houk looks significantly better than Bubbles and Carver.

What the hell has Carver to do with it at all anyway?

What do you mean by "it"?

[House Dondarrion]

I don't trust Hauk's claim either, but I think he is innocent nevetherless. For now, I try to ignore all claims and evaluate those players by other factors. Agree thatunder such approach Houk looks significantly better than Bubbles and Carver.

What do you mean by "it"?

"It" = either Carver or Bubbles is a liar.

If I had to rank those three without their reveals/stunts, it would be (from most to less suspicious)

1. Carver

2. Hauk

3. Bubbles

[House Clegane]

"It" = either Carver or Bubbles is a liar.

It's hard to imagine they both are guilty. Therefore, only one is. That's simple.

It's still possible that they both are innocent, but I don't think so. If I am wrong, it's not a tragedy, since you all don't listen to me anyway.

If I had to rank those three without their reveals/stunts, it would be (from most to less suspicious)

1. Carver

2. Hauk

3. Bubbles

I thought you trusted Carver yesterday. Why it's changed?