AGOT Mafia Game n= May 2011.

[House Connington]

Wait...what? Why did you refuse to vote Krakatoa at the end of day 2? And what changed to make you start with a vote for her on day 3?

Now I really think it's Sooty. :( I mean it's all fine and good to lynch someone at the last minute, and I for one have no regrets about that, but Sooty's "why did we just do that" regrets are irritating and ring false. He wouldn't actually lynch one of me or Lany, but was open to speed-lynching someone else? Give me a break. He just wanted a death on day 2 that would give little to no information.

That. Essentially I feel like she's spearheading a successful campaign to lynch all the wrong people.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

10 players remain: Edward, Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Humpty Dumpty, Krakatoa, Miss Marple, Simba, Sooty, The Mummy, Wonder Woman.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

1 vote for Krakatoa (Sooty)

1 vote for Sooty (Humpty Dumpty)

8 players have not voted: Edward, Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Krakatoa, Miss Marple, Simba, The Mummy, Wonder Woman.

[House Connington]

The instinct, of course, is to just vote Sooty right the hell off for being insane, but I want to remind everyone that unusual is not equivalent to evil. Please include a plausible (broadly) scenario in which Sooty is evil in your accusation posts. 'An innocent wouldn't do it either' isn't a valid reason since it's Halo. This guy claims Finder on day 1 as roleless innocent. 'He did it because it makes no sense for evil to do it' is WIFOM/null.

The obvious one is that he's symping... someone, trying to draw fire. But I don't know who he'd be symping, since it's usually pretty easy to deflate failed lynch trains. Anyone?

Off to check up on some of the people who fell under my radar.

Seriously dude, I realize you haven't played in forever but that was 100 games ago. Quit pretending you have impressions on people who you haven't played with in years.

[House Tyrell]

I'm walking away from the game for a while. See you all tomorrow.

[House Stokeworth]

That. Essentially I feel like she's spearheading a successful campaign to lynch all the wrong people.

Uhh... what do you mean by the 'wrong' people?

People who are valuable contributors to the innocent cause, like Garfield, Miss Marple, and Sotty? :rolleyes:

People who aren't obviously guilty? Objectively, that means voting is always 'wrong'; subjectively, it never is.

Easy targets? Uh... if that's your criteria, there's someone else who fits your profile (mostly the 'successful' part) far better than Kat... :leaving:

Oh, I get it. The wrong people is you. :rolleyes:

[House Upcliff]

So .... that happened while I was gone.

Am I wrong in assuming that if I had left my vote on Marple instead of Simba we might have lynched her? :bang:

(and contrary to popular belief, I did actually vote. Seeing my vote not counted for, like, ever was frustrating to read through)

[House Upcliff]

One time I said I was 100% sure that two people were evil, and they were in fact evil. I had never been so correct about something in the game, and never took more shit for it in the mod thread for being single-minded. So went back to my old, probabilistic ways.

Not game related, but this still chaps my ass. We were dead on right and we were flayed in the spoilers. We went after the wrong FM and even though we were going after certified scum, it was for the wrong reasons. Bullshit, we were right.

I don't expect to be casting my vote until others have made up their minds. I will however be around for the end of the day to hammer in if needed.

Hate this a lot. I know it's Halo-ish, but I still hate it.

That said, recent backtracking by her and Mina's does have me a little concerned.

Where was I backtracking?

Of course she is now. Once I called her on it, she had to change her approach.

Yep, it was all you. <_<

I was pretty sure about Miss Marple being innocent mainly because her thoughts tended to be pretty parallel to mine; for instance we both said that Sooty (old Sooty) voting for WJ was kind of odd/opportunistic.

Didn't Marple vote for Ernst for being opportunistic? I really don't remember her mentioning Sooty much. I'll probably have to re-read to see what was said at that point.

When I come up innocent, see to the partnership between Krak and Simba (sorry keyboard is broken and more keys are not working)

Besides suspecting them both, is there anything that makes you think they are partnered? I don't recall you mentioning partnerships before this.

[House Wythers]

May pack it in for the night too. Just reread it and I'm still like :stunned: Maybe I will check in before bed.

[House Upcliff]

The thing that decided me on Marple, Mina, was that she is really defensive. I read her earlier today without taking notes and saw just a bunch of Lany and got no read. But when I noted down what she did in each post, it's all defensive, all the time, from (but not including) her original early Ernst train to the end of day 1. Her few offensive thrusts (ETA: which are Ernst day one, Simba night one, Kat day two) have been opportunistic.

This wa sone of my points against Marple ... sort of. There is a lot of defense, but from Marple that is not so unusual. What I found unusual about it is that it was flippant rather than emotional. Usually when Lany goes into defense mode it's because she takes accusations so much to heart. I didn't get that sense from her.

But am I the only one who suspects Edward at all?

Nope. He's in my mid-tier suspicions. No case because it's fueled by gut.

I feel pretty similar about Simba, for the record. The other thing that makes me feel better about him, weirdly enough, is the fact that today he decided to go after someone who no one else seems to want to kill-- he's not picking an easy target.

Why exactly does this make you feel better about him? He doesn't need to go after an easy target, we will do all the work for him and he can save his capital for later in the game when it matters. I know he was gunning for me, but I never felt in danger, and I think he kind of knew that I would not be lynched. This saves him from spearheading a lynch that failed to catch a baddie. With Stalin on his record, he can only survive a few more mislynches before people go all splodey-headed with paranoia.

there were ony 2 ru1es posts---what habe you done?

Maybe two with Barbie, but more in total in the game. I can't remember the details, and I could dig them up, but you did talk a lot about game rules and side things not directly related to the game at hand.

Simba, you're vote on Gert is rather useless. Why aren't you commenting on the two people who are currently on the table -- Lany and Kat?

Simba already schooled you on this, but WTF? He had been consistently hammering at Marple for a while at this point.

By the way, there is one thing that has made me question Marple's guilt. If she's FM, then why did she so strongly defend Malc on day 1? That has bothered me for a while now.

That really bothers you? It's the easiest thing to fake as an FM.

[House Sunglass]

i'm the last russian speaker.

Bhah.

Krakatoa with ww or sooty with marple.

Guys don't panic. The best thing is to re-read last few posts of day 2 and understand who was protected from lynching by killing puff.

I haven't got this ability fully. But it seems like it was krakatoa, not marple.

[House Upcliff]

Is your change of heart on Marple based on her giving up and calling herself a bad player?

I'll admit, its had an effect on me too. :(

I am not taken in by Marple's 'poor me' attitude. I think it's overdone, and as you said - it worked for Ernst. I'm still not feeling the raw emotion that those types of posts usually have.

Shit wait PUFFY

Why so panicked? This seems like perhaps you were truly flustered. If you guys thought Marple was a goner, it would have been smart to throw her under the bus (if you're partners) and then you realized you had an out in Puff.

That was a totally crazy panic mob.

Hope we lucked out.

Is a "gui1ty" too much to ask for?

These ring false, but moreso Simba.

You guys realize if he was guilty he probably wouldn't have been speed lynched right?

This is more what I'd expect, Kat sounded sincere too.

Why the fuck did we just do that?

And then Simba realizes what just happened and that he should be feeling disappointment that it was too easy.

You know what? That was some crazyest shit I've ever seen.

Stick around, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Seriously, that was quick. Wonder if that means Puff had a good role.

Why, why, why?!? :bang:

Wait...what? Why did you refuse to vote Krakatoa at the end of day 2? And what changed to make you start with a vote for her on day 3?

And this is ... yeah. Dude. Is it suspicious or just crazypants? I'm leaning towards crazypants.

[House Upcliff]

i'm the last russian speaker.

Bhah.

Krakatoa with ww or sooty with marple.

Do you have any reasons to partner those players?

Guys don't panic. The best thing is to re-read last few posts of day 2 and understand who was protected from lynching by killing puff.

I haven't got this ability fully. But it seems like it was krakatoa, not marple.

I am interested in your newsletter and would like to subscribe. Why do you think it indicates Krakatoa was protected?

[House Stokeworth]

Okay, yeah, I got sidetracked. Instead of rereading Ernst, Simba, Mina, Edward, or Mummy, I'm going to try to build the obvious and compelling conspiracy theory. Then if that doesn't pan out I'll be able to concentrate.

Look at Sooty's posts - all of them. Look for his opinions on Miss Marple. In fact, here they all are:

See, this is why I can't help but feel suspicious of you. You pushing the Garfield coaching thing seems about as narrow-focused as MM's assertion that you and WJ are partners without a doubt -- it just doesn't leave room for other possibilities and I don't think we'd be so lucky as to figure it all out like this by day 2. It smells of an agenda.

Also, if you're convinced that Marple and Garfield are partners why are you voting for MM? No offense meant to Garfield but Lany has a lot more experience with this community and could be of great value if your theory turns out to be wrong (sorry for the meta).

Alright I'll tell you exactly where I'm coming from. Right now I'm torn between voting Krak or Marple or going for someone completely different, probably Puff.

Based on the wording of their posts, it doesn't seem like either Kat or Lany are leaving much room for the possibility that the other is innocent; If we lynch one and they turn out to be innocent it means the other one must be guilty, that sort of thing. Is that a correct reading of your respective positions?

I would think as experienced players you know how this all-or-nothing attitude could potentially damage the innocents which is why I find it suspicious for both of you.

Marple

Mainly because she's a blind spot for me and being slightly more stubborn. I could easily switch over to Kat though.

You've pinned down my problem with Krak quite accurately Garfield, she's being flailingly aggressive.

remove vote... I need to think on this some more.

I think I want to vote Krakatoa instead.

It's always 'Marple and some other person'. Never just Marple. He puts suspicion on her only when he can easily siphon it off to some other area - or at the very least easily justify why his vote went to Person X rather than Marple. When he does 'prefer' Marple for something he soon changes his mind, once in the same post and once a few minutes later.

Kat hits the reason for the weirdness in #818: They wanted Kat dead - particularly, dead by lynching, where the mob decides her ideas are wrong. There were two votes already on Kat and four potential Kat voters there - Kat, Mina, and WW wouldn't vote Kat. That's not enough for a lynch. Drastic measures had to be taken. Sooty claims he is refusing to vote for either as a smoke screen - Kat would have been a futile vote anyway.

If you look at Marple's interactions with Sooty there's also some tells - most notably when Marple famously deflects off of Sooty onto Ernst, starting the Ernst train. I've already explained how that's evil-consistent (and suspicious IMO) behavior even without them being partners, though, so I'm not convinced that Marple and Sooty are communicating killers.

Also amusing, though quite easily coincidental, is:

Simba was the most vocal player, questioning everyone and everything---any vote on him at that point in the game is opportunistic, whether it is the first or third

Sooty had the unmentioned second vote on Simba :lol:

The arguments for a Marple/Sooty team (either partners or with Sooty as symp) mostly also apply unchanged to a Garfield/Sooty team, though less convincingly. I didn't find the possibility of a Marple/Sooty/Garfield team particularly compelling, but I didn't fully examine it. (One of Halo's Marple-waffling posts comes out strangely that way, for instance.)

--

Problems with this theory:

- Why are the people who call Kat VPI alive?

- Do they really think they can get 6/10 to vote off Kat when 3 of us aren't willing to vote Kat?

My guess: We're convincable; Showgirl Barbie was an erratic wild card. He hadn't shown any sign of suspicion of Kat that I can find, either. Sooty has been pushing against Mina thinking Kat is VPI for a while, and is now appealing to me to likewise stop. The thing is, I think the case against Kat is ass. She's playing like me, therefore she's guilty? Even without meta I'd be an idiot to go along with that. So good luck with Mina then. Or try a better case.

My guess #2: Sooty is a symp, so the killers didn't get the memo that killing someone who won't vote Kat is more important than picking the 'smart / no-read' kill in SGB.

My guess #3: SGB was considered so much the obvious smart kill that they figured any other kill would reveal the plan.

My guess #4: They expect us to lynch Sooty today and Kat tomorrow as a trade.

I'm convinced. Sooty is evil; Marple is probably eviler, but with less certainty.

[House Upcliff]

Simba

Yep, still on that.

Simba, Marple

Edward, Garfield

Ernst (eh, maybe, maybe lower ... I've kind of liked his posts recently despite falling off the radar. However, the radar thing is bothersome)

Humpty, Krakatoa, Sooty

Wonder Woman

It's not like any of the players left seem innocent to me, it's that everyone seems suspicious. I don't fully trust Wonder Woman despite being in my lowest tier, it's just that I suspect him least.

[House Stokeworth]

Guys don't panic. The best thing is to re-read last few posts of day 2 and understand who was protected from lynching by killing puff.

I haven't got this ability fully. But it seems like it was krakatoa, not marple.

Reiterating: Krakatoa was NOT LYNCHABLE.

Of the players who were present, three refused to vote Krakatoa: Wonder Woman, Humpty Dumpty, and Krakatoa.

Of the players who were present, four had not expressed unwillingness to vote Krakatoa to get a lynch: Sooty, Simba, Marple, Garfield.

She also had votes on her from the absent Edward and Ernst Blofeld.

That's six potential votes and a lynch took seven. Nothing Sooty did could have changed that, except convincing me or Mina to 180.

ETA:

I don't fully trust Wonder Woman despite being in my lowest tier, it's just that I suspect him least.

How 'bout now? :devil: :uhoh:

[House Upcliff]

I see why people are upset with Sooty, but I thing frustration is different than evil (see: Barbie). Maybe it's because I wasn't here to experience it, but his weird reversals and refusals don't seem FMish to me.

Oh yeah, and he likes me. Of course that's why I don't see him as evil. I figured someone would bring it up, so I'll just get it out in the open :P.

[House Upcliff]

Reiterating: Krakatoa was NOT LYNCHABLE.

<stuff>

How 'bout now? :devil: :uhoh:

I think you're evil for pointing that out to Ernst. I was genuinely interested in why he thought that. Now you've tainted his answer. I hate you. :crying:

(but still suspect you least)

[House Stokeworth]

And [sooty refusing to vote Krakatoa on D2, but putting it on D3] is ... yeah. Dude. Is it suspicious or just crazypants? I'm leaning towards crazypants.

I'm leaning towards 'designed to cause the reaction Ernst Blofeld had'. Either that or 'designed to ensure that we vote Sooty the symp rather than a killer'.

[House Upcliff]

The instinct, of course, is to just vote Sooty right the hell off for being insane, but I want to remind everyone that unusual is not equivalent to evil.

<snip>

The obvious one is that he's symping... someone, trying to draw fire. But I don't know who he'd be symping, since it's usually pretty easy to deflate failed lynch trains. Anyone?

Do you still think Sooty is symping? If so, why the vote? wouldn't it be better to gun for an FM?

eta: and I guess you do still think he's the symp.

[House Reed]

May pack it in for the night too. Just reread it and I'm still like :stunned: Maybe I will check in before bed.

Careful or I'll try to make you the next compromise lynch. You never say anything, aside from attacking me. I would really like to see you make a case on someone other than me today. Pick someone, anyone, break out a few quotes and say why you think they are innocent/guilty.

I'm also pretty tired although I think I have a little bit left in me today. Like Mummy said, I dunno, I really am unimpressed with Sooty from last night but maybe he's just doing his crazy, inexplicable Halo thing.

Ernst- the vote for Puff was sort of forced because we could not reach a majority on anyone else with the available people around and the votes already cast by absent people. If anyone forced the vote, it would have been Sooty with his earlier statement that he kind of wanted to get away from voting for me or Marple and just lynch someone completely different, like Puff:

Alright I'll tell you exactly where I'm coming from. Right now I'm torn between voting Krak or Marple or going for someone completely different, probably Puff.

Based on the wording of their posts, it doesn't seem like either Kat or Lany are leaving much room for the possibility that the other is innocent; If we lynch one and they turn out to be innocent it means the other one must be guilty, that sort of thing. Is that a correct reading of your respective positions?

I would think as experienced players you know how this all-or-nothing attitude could potentially damage the innocents which is why I find it suspicious for both of you.

Puff I sort of want to eliminate as an unknown variable.

I don't like the idea of voting Garfield, mainly because I think they're being used as a soft target.

Garfield had voted for Puff earlier in the day, then changed her vote to me (which brought me to 4 votes), then Sooty said he was now refusing to vote for me or Marple (making a lynch on either of us impossible) then at the last minute said Garfield she'd vote for Miss Marple instead, then voted for Puff again after Humpty brought up that option as a compromise. There were literally like....5 minutes left in the day when we all switched to Puff after that. Including Sooty, who is at least half responsible for that vote in the first place.

If anything, the only thing the Puff vote accomplished (other than a dead innocent) is the assurance that Marple and I would possibly be at each other's throats again in the morning. I'm worried about being distracting, and I still suspect Marple, but :bang: :bang: I also don't want to potentially give in to distracting everyone with a revote on yesterday's lynch options. Especially if we are both innocent, because one fewer vote is needed to lynch today, so theoretically whichever one of us built up a majority first to lynch the other would "win".

The thing I am most worried about is that we are completely missing something huge here. If no one dead is guilty, there have to be at least 2 killers here, and maybe they're just sitting back, watching the status quo, and laughing.