[BOOK SPOILERS] So, the assassination attempt...

[Werthead]

We know Varys is working with Illyrio and apparently wants a Targaryen resurgence. He attempts to help Eddard, and later does help Tyrion, because he's trying to keep things on a level field because he needs the civil war to erupt at the right point to cause the maximum amount of chaos before Khal Drogo's invasion. As he and Illyrio discuss, things are moving faster than they anticipated and they need to adjust. In particular, they need to light a fire under Drogo's ass to get him to invade Westeros before his son his born.

So I always read the assassination attempt in the book going like this: Varys orders the assassin to kill Daenerys but also tips off Jorah. Jorah stops the assassination, so Dany is unharmed, and Drogo is so pissed off that he orders the invasion. This is pretty much what happens and seems to be in tune with Varys and Illyrio's agenda. This also tracks with the information that Jorah is still acting on behalf of Varys as late as Qarth before has a real change of heart.

However, in Episode 7 the surface reading is that the wineseller is going to kill Dany, Jorah gets his royal pardon and he's expected to let Dany die. After a change of heart, he intervenes and saves Dany and all is well.

This is slightly puzzling. It's possible that this is all part of the same plan still and Varys's pardon also has instructions about stopping the wineseller, and Jorah's agonised indecision isn't about saving Dany, but it's about taking the pardon and running for home. But the scene doesn't look like it's supposed to be read that way.

The only conclusion I can come to is somewhat cold-blooded, even for Varys, in that the plan is for Daenerys to die, and for this event to so enrage Drogo that he'll invade Westeros for revenge and seat Viserys on the Iron Throne (because news of Viserys's death has not yet reached Westeros). This has the benefit of not risking Jorah blowing his cover. Viserys's death (coupled with his genuine regard for Dany) compels Jorah to intervene and stop the assassination. This is the more likely explanation, but is still problematic. With only two Targaryens left, one of whom is of unproven fertility and, by Illyrio's estimation, also a total prick, killing Dany is a dicey move, if one guaranteed to piss off Drogo.

The other possibility is that Varys is playing a different game to Illyrio altogether :)

[Zoren]

We know Varys is working with Illyrio and apparently wants a Targaryen resurgence. He attempts to help Eddard, and later does help Tyrion, because he's trying to keep things on a level field because he needs the civil war to erupt at the right point to cause the maximum amount of chaos before Khal Drogo's invasion. As he and Illyrio discuss, things are moving faster than they anticipated and they need to adjust. In particular, they need to light a fire under Drogo's ass to get him to invade Westeros before his son his born.

So I always read the assassination attempt in the book going like this: Varys orders the assassin to kill Daenerys but also tips off Jorah. Jorah stops the assassination, so Dany is unharmed, and Drogo is so pissed off that he orders the invasion. This is pretty much what happens and seems to be in tune with Varys and Illyrio's agenda. This also tracks with the information that Jorah is still acting on behalf of Varys as late as Qarth before has a real change of heart.

However, in Episode 7 the surface reading is that the wineseller is going to kill Dany, Jorah gets his royal pardon and he's expected to let Dany die. After a change of heart, he intervenes and saves Dany and all is well.

This is slightly puzzling. It's possible that this is all part of the same plan still and Varys's pardon also has instructions about stopping the wineseller, and Jorah's agonised indecision isn't about saving Dany, but it's about taking the pardon and running for home. But the scene doesn't look like it's supposed to be read that way.

The only conclusion I can come to is somewhat cold-blooded, even for Varys, in that the plan is for Daenerys to die, and for this event to so enrage Drogo that he'll invade Westeros for revenge and seat Viserys on the Iron Throne (because news of Viserys's death has not yet reached Westeros). This has the benefit of not risking Jorah blowing his cover. Viserys's death (coupled with his genuine regard for Dany) compels Jorah to intervene and stop the assassination. This is the more likely explanation, but is still problematic. With only two Targaryens left, one of whom is of unproven fertility and, by Illyrio's estimation, also a total prick, killing Dany is a dicey move, if one guaranteed to piss off Drogo.

The other possibility is that Varys is playing a different game to Illyrio altogether :)

Unless Martin explicitly says that the Jorah scene from Ep7 is canon, we have no proof that Varys sent Jorah a royal pardon instead of a warning about the wine seller. Heck, we don't even KNOW if the wine was actually poisoned, for all we know, the wine seller was an agent of Varys/Illyrio whose sole purpose was to stage a fake assassination attempt in order to spark Drogo's fury.

[Anomandaris86]

You know, I believe Varys (and hell, Martin has said this too) when he says his master is Peace. His actions are in keeping with that, most notably trying to prevent Ned's death (and thus the war). But I think maybe at some point down the line he decided to throw in with Dany and nudge Tyrion toward killing his father. Evil as he was, Tywin was a stabilizing force in the city and had a firm grasp on things, so I don't think Varys was serving Peace anymore. Maybe he decided that he wouldn't be good for the realm and so conspired to have him killed.

[uncle fester]

You know, I believe Varys (and hell, Martin has said this too) when he says his master is Peace. His actions are in keeping with that, most notably trying to prevent Ned's death (and thus the war). But I think maybe at some point down the line he decided to throw in with Dany and nudge Tyrion toward killing his father. Evil as he was, Tywin was a stabilizing force in the city and had a firm grasp on things, so I don't think Varys was serving Peace anymore. Maybe he decided that he wouldn't be good for the realm and so conspired to have him killed.

Don't really buy that. If Varys did genuinely want peace, he would have swung things so that Robert was out of the way faster and Tywin was regent for Joffrey, until poor Joff suffers an unfortunate slip in the bath before he can actually become king.

[Werthead]

Unless Martin explicitly says that the Jorah scene from Ep7 is canon, we have no proof that Varys sent Jorah a royal pardon instead of a warning about the wine seller.

Not sure what you mean here. That scene is canon for the TV show but is not canon for the books, since the two are totally separate continuities (one is merely based on the other). So in the books it is much more probable that Jorah was tipped off about the assassination and told to stop it, because we don't know his thought processes or what he was doing just before that moment. The TV show seems to indicate that he made a personal choice to stop the assassination which, like I said, doesn't seem to track with Varys's plans.

[Vuron]

The only conclusion I can come to is somewhat cold-blooded, even for Varys, in that the plan is for Daenerys to die, and for this event to so enrage Drogo that he'll invade Westeros for revenge and seat Viserys on the Iron Throne (because news of Viserys's death has not yet reached Westeros). This has the benefit of not risking Jorah blowing his cover. Viserys's death (coupled with his genuine regard for Dany) compels Jorah to intervene and stop the assassination. This is the more likely explanation, but is still problematic. With only two Targaryens left, one of whom is of unproven fertility and, by Illyrio's estimation, also a total prick, killing Dany is a dicey move, if one guaranteed to piss off Drogo.

The other possibility is that Varys is playing a different game to Illyrio altogether :)

This is how I've always understand the scene from the show, as well as the books. I think Varys had every intention of killing Dany and unborn child to force Drogo to invade with Viserys. We know that Jorah was working with the 7 kingdoms to try to earn a pardon, so it would fit that he got his pardon as payment for supplying information about Dany's pregnancy.

I think it was his "love" for Dany that caused him to turn down the pardon and stop the assassination.

[Bahimiron]

I never got the impression that the wine merchant is a professional assassin. Rather than paying someone specific to go after Dany, it seems that the Small Council basically let it be known that killing Dany would yield rewards financial and title-oriented. The wineseller wasn't one of the usurper's hired knives as much as he was some idiot who heard about the potential lordship, spiked a cask just in case he got the chance and went to sell his wares where it was likely Dany would be shopping. Mormont was told that there would be attempts made starting soon and that he should watch out.

I could very well be wrong here. That's just how it's always read to me.

[Brienne the Beauty]

Heck, we don't even KNOW if the wine was actually poisoned, for all we know, the wine seller was an agent of Varys/Illyrio whose sole purpose was to stage a fake assassination attempt in order to spark Drogo's fury.

If he wasn't an assassin, he's certainly crazy because he had to know he would be tortured to death for staging a convincing fake assassination, which would necessarily involve getting caught. If the assassination had gone OK, he'd presumably planned to have time to escape (perhaps it was a slow-acting poison.)

[nerd123]

There's a very similar thread in the general novels section called, "A Question Regarding Varys and Daenerys." My take is probably the tv show just screwed up a little bit:

I think the TV show screwed up. I think Varys is supposed to be a Targ loyalist, but for that to make sense he must have informed Jorah beforehand very specifically about the assassination attempt on Dany, knowing Jorah would save her and get on her good side. But in episode 7 of the tv show it's pretty clear that Jorah's prevention of the assassination was an accident.

Oh well, it's still a good adaptation.