Werthead

It looks like a Ukrainian sea drone armed with anti-aircraft missiles was responsible for a Russian helicopter that disappeared over the Black Sea a couple of weeks back. The Russians claimed it was an accident. A Russian Su-34 has been destroyed, the first in a few weeks. Unclear if it was shot down, involved in friendly fire or an accident. France has come up with an interesting approach of going around partner countries it has sold SCALP (Storm Shadow) missiles to but are now out-of-life, and bringing them back to France for reconditioning before going to Ukraine. In this manner, multiple dozens of SCALPs have been sent to Ukraine without touching French strategic stocks. Britain is producing new Storm Shadows, unclear if France is building new SCALPs (though you'd assume so).

Jolly. There has been an uptick in attacks on Russian soldiers by Ukrainian personnel who have been pressganged into Russian service. Yuri Galushko, a 60-year-old resident of Donetsk, was forced to serve in the DPR military. After a Russian strike on Kharkiv caused his mother to have a stroke, he flipped out, shot dead six Russian servicemen and fled the scene. Some reports he made it to Ukrainian lines. A high-speed Russian patrol boat has been destroyed by a drone in Crimea. Russian sources are also claiming that Ukraine is trialling an "anti-air drone," larger Baba Yaga-derivations which are equipped with 2-4 anti-aircraft missiles which are harder to detect and could engage Russian aircraft from inside Russian territory or from the Black Sea. A cluster of Iskander launchers has also been destroyed by ATACMS fire in Crimea. Confirmation that Ukraine has received a ton of new equipment in the last week, including AA missiles, 155mm artillery shells and Patriot missiles.

McLaren had a big upgrade package this weekend and it seemed to pay off for both drivers (Piastri were obviously knocked out of contention by on-track action). Brown is downplaying it, saying it was a combo of the new upgrades and also the low-downforce surface, and it'd be business as usual next time, but it'll be interesting to see what happens. McLaren keep having great moments, they now just need consistency.

He cancelled his trip to South Africa when they made it clear they'd have to arrest him as they are members. Of the members respecting the Rome Statute, 33 are in Africa, 19 are in the Asia-Pacific and 28 are from Latin America and the Caribbean. 124 countries and international entities are members of the ICC, which is considerably more than half the countries in the world.

Almost there! The guy they hired to do the voiceover for the trailers is brilliant, even if he's starting to ham it up a little bit ("Skybliiiiiiivion!"). Also, the return of Oblivion's lockpicking, only it's now less shit. And they've merged Oblivion's stat system with Skyrim's levelling system, which is impressive.

Jordan seems to be emerging from this crisis with some serious clout. It criticised the hell out of Hamas for its initial attack, has been fiercely critical of Israel's response, but then jumped in to defend Israel successfully and then told Iran to go fuck itself when Iran threatened it (remarkable given the rather severe power disparity between the two countries). I get the impression that Jordan has impressed its Arab allies, Israel and the west, whilst also not deviating on its core principle of opposition to the killing of innocents.

It looks like there is momentum behind the latest round of discussions. Hamas is pushing for the proposed ceasefire to be permanent and it looks like the US, Egypt, Jordan and others are backing that idea. Israel is resistant, still planning its operation in Rafah, but its opposition may be wilting in the face of international pressure.

Interesting economic analysis that Russia's current economic sort-of boom is being driven by the current military situation. Should the war end, Russia's economy might see a contraction of seismic proportions. Ukraine would have a similar risk, but is better placed to endure it, with likely vast resources being made available to help it rebuild after the war. Russia likely will not have that advantage. As a result, it may be economically advantageous to Russia to continue the war for as long as possible. Other analyses are saying the war boom effect is temporary, and at ~3-4 years into the conflict (18 months to two years from now) Russia's economic expansion from massive military spending will run out of steam and the contraction will occur anyway. There is some arguing about that. Meanwhile, the US and the G7 are working on a plan to use profits and interest from frozen Russian assets to generate additional cash for Ukraine. The idea is that this would generate around $50 billion this year and around $150 billion by in total by the end of 2025. This might mitigate the problems of generating a new US aid bill in 2025, regardless of who's in the White House, and would leave the assets themselves intact, for possible return to Russia after the end of hostilities (a possible incentive for ending the conflict). As for China, it's extremely clear that Xi had a roadmap that included an invasion of Taiwan in or around 2027 (the 80th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army, under its original guise) if possible, but in the early 2030s if not. That roadmap seems to have been disrupted by China's economic woes, unexpectedly robust rearming by the US and its allies (partially caused by Russia) and the economic "decoupling" by former investors that has happened much faster than China ever believed possible, along with much more robust statements that the US will defend Taiwan, meaning a direct Chinese-US war which, right now and probably still in 2027, China might have no better than a 1-in-3 chance of winning. China seems to be dealing with this by cooling the tensions and heat, pivoting to the South China Sea controversy (where China may hope to provoke a military intervention by the US or its allies so China can sell any response as justified self-defence) and engaging in longer-term planning. China may still decide to invade Taiwan in 2027 or even sooner if it decides the situation is ripe, but it sees to be less keen now than two years ago or so. That does put its relationship with Russia in an interesting place: it will continue to milk Russia for all its worth but the chances of China putting itself out there on Russia's behalf seems to have reduced significantly, and western leaders are apparently wooing Xi both behind the scenes and in public, congratulating him on his diplomacy with Russia that apparently dissuaded Putin from using nuclear weapons (although the US believes it was actually a very direct discussion between the head of the CIA and the head of the FSB in Türkiye last year where he said that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would trigger a direct US military intervention in the war that really dissuaded them, but still, PR), and suggesting that Xi follow through on his previous discussions about Ukraine's territorial integrity to broker a peace deal with Putin. That flatters Xi's not-inconsiderable ego, even if he is aware of that.

Britain's youngest Prime Minister was William Pitt the Younger, who was 24 when he assumed office (and was 21 when elected to the Commons). He held the office for longer than anyone bar Robert Walpole, and is generally accounted one of Britain's greatest Prime Ministers (for various values of "greatness"), steering the country through the aftermath of the American War of Independence and French Revolution, the spread of revolutionary fervour to Britain, various complications with Ireland and India, and then both the Revolutionary and start of the Napoleonic Wars. Some of that came later, but his first term was basically rushing around putting out fires in Ireland, India, France and cementing relations with the US having just been at war with them, and he was generally successful in these areas despite inexperience. Edward IV became King at 18 and almost ended the Wars of the Roses for good except for his brothers both losing the plot and allowing the ultimate Tudor victory later on. He showed some issues with being young and impulsive but also showed significant political canniness, and was a superior general despite his great youth. Oddly, he seemed to make worse decisions the older he got; if he'd been king when he was older, it's possible he'd have been a far less successful one. And obviously that's people with ultimate power, not being an councillor on a single seat in a very minor part of the country. The youngest MP in UK history is Christopher Monck, who was elected MP for Devon in 1667 at the age of 13; due to a quirk in the law he could be elected but not take his seat until eight years later, at 21. The age of candidacy for being a MP was reduced to 18 in 2006, but so far we've only had one MP below 21. We also regularly entrust people at 18 or younger in roles including soldiers, mothers and fathers, drivers (sometimes of Formula One cars going at 200mph), pilots, landlords, business managers, writers, artists and most other jobs under the sun. Some are spectacularly shit at those things, but some are exceptionally good at them. One might also argue that youth and inexperience may be a boon if it means enthusiasm and ability to get things done has not been beaten down by cynicism.

Is this the one which looks like a cute cartoon game but the combat is straight-up Dark Souls?

At 18 (1997) I'd been studying Russia and American politics and Anglo-Irish history for two years solid, so in those areas I was probably better-informed and up to date then 90% of the population. That was also probably when my absolute mastery of Middle-earth lore was its peak. Outside of those areas it'd have been more of a mixed bag. That said, I once had a long conversation with a family member (then in his fifties) explaining with references how the value of the house he bought in 1975 had quintupled outside of interest, which is why I couldn't afford to buy a similar house at the same time he did, and he didn't get it (or rather he refused to get it, because it destroyed his argument about "feckless youth"). There are a lot of 18-year-old fucking idiots around, but a lot of 18-year-olds who are reasonably well-educated and capable, and a lot of 38 or 58-year-olds around who you wouldn't trust to open a can of beans which was already open without fatally injuring themselves.

Frostpunk.

Current analysis of the Ukrainian energy offensive: 14% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity has been knocked out of commission. Russia is importing fuel from Belarus and Kazakhstan to replenish its stocks lost in the energy offensive, and has imposed a six-month gasoline export ban from March to the end of October. Russia has also asked Kazakhstan to establish an emergency reserve for Russian use should the offensive continue. Russia had 0 gasoline imports from Belarus in January, 590 tons in February and 3,000 tons from March. Diesel prices for Russian consumers have also accelerated, with a 10% increase last month. Petrol costs have risen 20% since January. Russia has hit continuous roadblocks with the sanctions regime preventing them from importing from elsewhere, and China and India are unwilling to help fill the gap (they are making out like crazy on the situation). There has been some criticism about Ukraine not pursuing other targets, but it would be very hard to completely saturate the Russian electricity network to black out large swathes of the country (although they did black out half of Smolensk oblast for several hours this week, an unexpected success), as Russia has also found in attacks on Ukraine. Oil refineries are uniquely vulnerable, as they don't have AA defences (and still don't, the MoD and the oligarchs are screaming at each other over it), they're immobile, you can't move the infrastructure around or disperse it (Russia has dispersed large ammo depots into lots of small caches to try to limit Ukrainian attacks) and it's all highly flammable: a single drone can burn down half a refinery if it hits the right storage facility, or it can know out a whole refinery for a week by hitting one valve. Russia also can't retaliate, as Ukraine has no oil refineries of a similar kind. KIA is probably running at 40,000-50,000 (extrapolating Zelensky's figures with the MIA and captured and not returned), which is obviously a massive tragedy. But the vast majority of these seem to be among the 27-40 age cohort. Ukraine has deliberately not tapped its younger cohort in the draft. Obviously there are a large number of volunteers in the younger cohorts, but Ukraine seems to have gone to some lengths to keep them away from front-line combat operations, putting them in as artillery troops well behind the lines or drone operators. Ukraine is extremely aware of its demographic weakness here and has been working to mitigate the problem. Russia has as well (recruiting from the 40+ cohort, which is insane, and disposable prison populations, and then from ethnic minorities from areas far from Moscow). I also doubt any refugees/immigrants from anywhere, probably fleeing wars themselves, are going to volunteer to fight in someone else's war.

"Engaging hyperspace." As far as Collector's Editions go, this obliterates Starfield's woeful one. I'm actually half-temped to try that mod as I do have a 4090, which should be able to handle it, but I am somewhat concerned about my PC turning into a nuclear reactor in the process. Hmm.

A similar perchance for pulling solutions to problems out of their arses (not something Star Trek has shied away from in the past, but now it's just the automatic resolution to almost every problem), the similarly murky WTF-is-happening CGI, and an almost palpable contempt for any kind of canon or continuity (i.e. their treatment of Khan, the Gorn, the size of the ship etc). I do agree it's batting average is moderately higher than Discovery and the smaller cast where they mix out the storylines more fairly is better, but it's not like there's some vast yawning gulf of quality between the two shows (and the soapy elements are present and correct with Pike's relationship drama, Spock's relationship drama, Chapel's relationship drama, everyone's relationship drama).

The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant has hit a production rate of 36,000 155mm artillery shells per month. The plant is currently on track to hit 100,000 a month next year. These aren't all going to Ukraine, but a healthy chunk are. A second ammunition production plant in Texas is coming on-stream soon. The US has also apparently completed a "surge order" of ATACMS and is now reliably producing dozens of new ATACMS missiles every few months, enough to meet Ukrainian needs without dipping into American reserves. Ukraine has also received a significant influx of 8-inch shells for its 2S7 Pion 203mm self-propelled cannons, allowing them to return to service after apparently spending a large chunk of the last year out of service due to ammo shortages. Ukraine has also started hitting Russian forces along the front with their own glide bombs, air-launched from MiG-29 Fulcrums. Germany has provided AMPS self-protection systems to Ukraine, a bolt-on system compatible with various platforms to defend them from incoming missiles at both short and long ranges. About half a dozen Ukrainian helicopters are believed to be operating the technology, and may have already deployed it in the field. Ukrainian drones have destroyed an air defence system in Kursk Oblast.

What is annoying is that he did say early on that Way of Kings would be the longest novel and the rest would be shorter, and he's since bemoaned how big the books are because of the time they take, so if he reduced the books from say 1,400 pages to around 750 pages, they'd still be bloody big books, but much more digestible and he'd shave at least a year off the writing of each one. I do wonder if he's planning to significantly shorten the books in the second half of the series, bearing in mind it's taken 15 years to produce the first half and will presumably take the same to produce the second, if not longer as he's likely to slow down as he gets older.

In later seasons, particularly 4, Burnham develops a very strange way of speaking, a sort of whisper-rasping thing. It's not quite as bad as Aidan Gillen's inexplicable Batman voice as Littlefinger in later seasons of GoT, but it is equally inexplicable that they both use their perfectly fine, normal human speaking voices in earlier seasons and abruptly switch 2 or 3 seasons in for absolutely no apparent reason.

Almost. The 2.20-2.40 bit looks about 95% photorealistic, the closest I've seen in a game (though not in a game vanilla, that's Alan Wake II). The rest of it has some sort of weird frameshifting effect going on, so it looks real, but like real model cars driving around. The scaling feels really off, possibly the lighting effect they're using. Would probably look better at night. The characters wreck it though, they just look like vanilla. That's when you realise it's smoke and mirror with the lighting and surfaces. Once they can nail people, we'll be cooking for real.

Seasons 3 and 4 of Discovery have been fine, with the caveat that the resolution to Season 3 was dumb as a box of frogs, but the season up to that point was solid. I also liked the kind-of-Iain-Banks-ish direction the far future Federation was going in. A lot of the weaknesses Discovery had are shared by Strange New Worlds, but it seems to get a pass on those things because of Anson Mount's hair. I do agree that Discovery does have the characters acting very casually for no apparent reason, often annoyingly. Earlier Trek shows did have the characters crying but usually in moments of extreme duress (Troi when Tasha died, Picard when turned into a Borg and breaking down in front of his brother etc). Burnham's Batman/Littlefinger voice in the later seasons is also bizarre.

I've seen suggestions that Ukraine has released strategic reserves of shells and ammunition because of the impending arrival of replacements from the US and Europe. Also, one of the Ukrainian units that pulled back from the front (and whose replacements not getting into place in time may have caused the breakthrough) apparently resupplied ASAP and turned around to rejoin the fight, providing local reinforcement from veterans. Although they're a bit narked off that their several weeks-long leave was reduced to effectively nothing. But they'd rather that then, y'know, the front collapsing. Pretty big Ukrainian hits in Smolensk, Oryol and Rostov oblasts, targeting Russian energy supply systems, resulting in blackouts. Drones also hit the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai.

12 US congressmen have written to Liberty Media and basically reminded them that they are a US company subject to US antitrust laws, and their rejection of Andretti either breaks those laws or skirts around the edge of doing so. They point out the current F1 Concorde agreement allows for up to 12 teams and there are currently only 10, and the F1 teams have effectively admitted to rejecting Andretti's bid as they don't want the competition (antitrust) and seem to fear the arrival of a US manufacturer, and could be seen as a cabal of European teams (and one US-owned but European-run team) rejecting a team on the basis of nationality, which is either illegal or close to being so. They have also pointed out that F1's recent explosion in popularity has largely come from the American market, resulting in three regular US Grand Prix and immense amounts of money coming into the sport, which should offset any dilution concerns, especially given that Andretti has agreed to pay the (already exorbitant) dilution fee.

Filoni's gift for making lemonade from George Lucas's lemons remains undimmed. Some really good, clever stuff.

Newey's exit confirmed. His gardening leave has been reduced to basically 12 months from now, but he can continue to advise and talk to Red Bull for that period. He'll be free to join another team in April 2025. It sounds like he's going to Ferrari but reportedly negotiations are ongoing.

Owch. Three ATACMS missiles directly struck a Russian training ground near Kuban, Luhansk Oblast. It looks like one group of Russian soldiers was hit directly by one of the missiles, with around 100 killed or injured in one hit. The Ryazan oil refinery, owned by Rosneft, was hit and set alight last night.