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Mafia Game 78 - Tales of the Malazan Book of the Fallen

House Targaryen

By House Targaryen,
in Forum Games

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House Dalt Commoner

House Dalt

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Can everyone post their tiers please. I need to see where everyone stands.

Tier 1: Fiddler, Toc, Yedan

Tier 2: Gruntle, Onos

Tier 3: Quick Ben, Silchas

I don't think Tier 2 or 3 are FM but that's about where I stand. I'm not sure who I prefer of my tier 1 but I think I'm leaning more towards Fiddler/Toc than Yedan. Rereading my case on Toc on day 1 reminded me of the weirdness of how he handled Fiddler and when I reread Togg yesterday, I saw some similar problems. Fiddler always seems to be his top suspect yet he always dismisses him for one reason or another. That screams partnership to me.

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House Dalt Commoner

House Dalt

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After some searching, you come across a dessicated corpse hidden to the side of camp. Beyond the bones and hair, nothing is there to reveal its identity or alignment.

I don't know what this means (ie: was he just killed, killed by poison, another event?) but I'm assuming that Sandalath is innocent. If it's due to poison, then an innocent poisoner wouldn't go after Sandalath. This also confirms Silchas.

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House Dalt Commoner

House Dalt

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This is pissing me off. I'm trying to write a case on Toc and I'm spending half the time refreshing due to SQL errors. I need to go but I want to finish this case. I hate this board today.

Yedan, why is Toc on your bottom tier?

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House Tyrell Commoner

House Tyrell

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This is pissing me off. I'm trying to write a case on Toc and I'm spending half the time refreshing due to SQL errors. I need to go but I want to finish this case. I hate this board today.

I wrote a long post but it have been eaten by SQL server. So now you have got just my tiers and vote.

Yedan, why is Toc on your bottom tier?

We play with FM who has ablities not just to kill.

They already have poisoner.

I think D'ivers plays for us (with vig, finder (who has jusr one ability), and healer) but FM have got somebody like blocker.

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House Dalt Commoner

House Dalt

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Toc the Younger.

This is my case from Toc's day 1's actions. It's pretty clear from here why I don't like him. Here is the rest.

ArooooooOOOOOOOOOooooooo

So, to answer the obvious questions, I did not chose the timing of becoming D'ivers. I knew from the beginning that I would start Day 2 like this. It was not triggered by a NK or vig attempt. Don't ask how long this state lasts or if I can go in and out of this state, because that I will not answer.

The thoughts I had last night before I left were that Rake looked bad and I really wanted to take a closer look at Kalam. I didn't like some of his play even though there were a few things I couldn't quite square as FM (esp. his immediate vote for Sil right after Dassem's). Anyway, that was taken off the table so that's all good. I agree that he was a puzzling kill.

I think that Icarium looks fairly good ... I may have to check this but I remember that when asked he said he would not vote for Yedam, but would for Dassem. Why would an FM close that door? Good enough to take him off the table today.

I rather like Tehol (that is, until his latest post ...) but right now he is near the top through attrition. Sandalath looks better as a result of the vote, but not cleared. I was undecided about Karsa's place on the vote train. The details are fuzzy in my head right now, but he was kind of reluctant to jump on the train. He did, and not at the last minute, but he needs a looking into as well.

This is Togg's first post on Day 2. Two things that really bother me and another that should be noted.

1. I don't like him saying he wanted to take a closer look at Kalam after Kalam was dead. Seems like a worthless comment that doesn't add anything but looks like you were thinking about who the FM were. He was dead and innocent, why say that?

2. I've brought up the attrition thing before but this is one of the things that really set me off. This was on day 2, the first post of day 2 and he's already lumping me as suspicious due to attrition. If it was day 5 and there were only 4 suspects, fine, but this is day 2. So basically, by saying that, it makes it pretty easy for him to vote me if he wanted since well, it can't be that many others. It's poor play from an innocent on day 2 which is one of the reasons I don't think he's innocent.

Fiddler was an easy target. I would have been ok lynching him, but I didn't think it was the best one we could find. I (meant to) vote Kalam not because of his suspicions, but the eager and opportunistic way he voted. Pair that with a vague gut feeling about him and he earned my vote as pressure and an incentive for others to look into him for their own reads.

No mention of Dassem because ... he hadn't done anything til after I left. I probably didn't mention you either, so we should note that too.

This goes back to my day 1 case. Basically, Fiddler was a suspect of Togg's but he dismissed him because he was an easy target. There was no other reason, at least that Togg said, that clears Fiddler in his eyes at this stage in the game.

One other thought I had last night was that I didn't get why people thought Yedam looked guilty ... strike that ... guiltier than say Fiddler, Silchas or Dassem. I know he posted little and was a bit defiant, but I had a good impression of him. Of course, now that we have some meat and logic to dig into, I expect more from him.

Defending Yedan. Would he defend his partner so blatantly? He does it later too I think.

I know you guys will have to come to the conclusion of whether or not D'ivers is more likely to be an inno or FM role, but I think a good argument is that a double vote is very powerful - especially on a team of 3 full killers, one of which would be nigh unlynchable for the duration.

I hate this post because I think it's misleading. We have no idea how the role works. Togg said he knew it would go into effect on day 2. And from later posts, we know it was only going to last 2 days. So the duration goes to day 4, max. Lets do some math.

We had 12 players yesterday, the last day of his double vote. If he was a FM, did it seem overpowered? Assume there were 3 FM left and not two, that in theory gives them 4 votes. They need 7 in order to get a lynch. Hell, lets also assume that there was a kill on day 1, so instead of 12 players, we had 11. That means they need 6 votes so two innocents have to jump on.

Now, on day 4, he'll be back to a single vote. So instead of the 8 we have today, we're down to 7.

7 players, 3 FM, we're in LYLO. The double vote doesn't make a difference since it no longer exists.

So yes, the D'ivers role is somewhat powerful but at the same time, it's tempered by the good roles that we have. The role is meant to balance the FM. It's not too powerful for a FM since he'll still have to play it like he's innocent and it doesn't make it so the FM have a massive advantage too early.

Basically, the long and short of this is I disagree with his statement and I don't like that he's somewhat misleading us into believing that a D'ivers role couldn't be given to FM. If the double vote continued to last, I'd probably agree but it didn't.

hee hee - I just noticed that I called Rake out for saying 'interesting' and then did the same. I think Trull is inno. I don't think Yedan looks guilty for voting this way, but I don't truly understand it and want to see where this goes.

More defense of Yedan.

Right, so. Lots to catch up on.

From gut, memory and a brief skimming of the thread to keep up, I won't lynch Ben, Onos, Karsa, Trull today. Probably not Icarium even though I see there are some decent points against him - need to digest those.

Who's left? Rake looks singularly bad. Fiddler and Silchas look their usual self (not good). Tehol doesn't look great ... Yedam looks about the same but I was hoping for a ton more from him.

Sandalath is looking better, but not as good as others think, I believe.

I'm forgetting someone, right? I guess I'll catch it later.

Rake, Tehol

Fiddler, Silchas

Sandalath (not sure where to put him, honestly)

Icarium, Yedam

Ben, Onos, Karsa, Trull

... oh! Gruntle. Won't vote Gruntle either.

Ok. So I don't look great. Why? No idea. Attrition again? Doesn't say. But since I'm getting attention, I must be on the top tier.

Fiddler on the second tier. Why? On day 1, he found him suspicious but easy suspect. Now he has nothing really to say about him other than they look their usual self (ie: not good). I don't get it.

Fiddler I've kind of changed my mind on Tehol for today. I won't protest his lynch, but just think that the main reason I didn't like him was his entrance and vote for 'information' on Silchas (and lack of better subjects) but at this point I'd rather see Fiddler gone. My only strong suspect is Rake and then Fiddler, Silchas and Tehol kind of swim together in my head and they keep switching places in my list of favored second lynch. Anyway, Switched my votes around because this will be the active av and easier to switch around. I don't want to move my vote from Rake unless there is no other option.

This feels like a distancing vote. At this point in the game, there was 5 votes on me, 5 on Rake. He moves the Fandaray vote from me to Rake and removes the Togg vote from rake onto Fiddler. Yedan was the only other person voting Fiddler.

Note: Togg has spent all day posting against Rake. He hasn't posted against me at all other than that tier post. So he needs to vote Rake otherwise it looks wrong.

Healer

Soldier

Guard

Pseudo-Finder

Vig

Poisoner

Ninja

Double-vote

D'ivers and Vig are confirmed, and since the vig is CI, then the healer is as good as confirmed. Right now I don't see the advantage of claiming finder. Ninja should not be in same game as a vig and, Icarium's claim notwithstanding, a ninja on the FM team makes little sense. Poisoner and Guard are the natural fits. I'm not great at balance, but I wouldn't cry foul at both of those powers were used for FM. Plus there is another power we have no way of knowing about.

Safe contribution. Always good to speculate on the roles since it's easy to talk about.

I really need to go over several people. I'm going to try to wipe clean my pre-concieved prejudices and biases. I'll fairly put Icarium on the table today. Yesterday I was digging in my heels because my gut said no. I veered off Tehol for gut too. I just really haven't even looked critically at Yedan so yeah, about time.

Buuuut,not now. I just tried to start a re-read and kept thinking, hey, we've got an extension and there are other things I could be doing. So yeah - outta here.

Now Togg is backtracking so they can find people to vote. Icarium is now on the table. If you were innocent, you tend to find reasons why you think others are innocent and you don't normally go back on them until all your suspects (Fiddler, Tehol) are off the table. To bring them back on the table now makes it look like you trying to expand the suspect pool.

I'm feeling worse about Icarium today. It feels like he is not trying and is grabbing at easy points. (I think, he doesn't really conclude anything about Tehol)

Sound familiar? Not really trying and grabbing easy points? Feels forced. Oh look, Icarium is back on the table. Oh look, I feel worse about him today.

Right now my preferences are ...

Fiddler

Icarium

Tehol

Yedan

Heh heh, I should really use this power while I can, no?

Icarium

This is classic. Preferences in order: Fiddler, Icarium. 1 minute later, vote Icarium. What happened to Fiddler being at the top? And you do realize you haven't said a word about Fiddler since day 1 when you suspected him but thought he was an easy lynch. All you've done is put him near the top of your tiers and find other reasons to vote people, even people you originally defended and thought innocent.

There are a few posts after this that discusses his double voter power. He doesn't want to use it (solid innocent play) but then changes his mind as he realizes it'll be harder to lynch if he doesn't so he does use it (no longer solid innocent play). It makes sense either way you look at it but I did want to note it.

I feel that at least one of the FM had to be on the Dassem train. I don't think it's Gruntle, and that leaves me with Fiddler and Icarium, so still going in circles.

(yes, I know it's self-serving, but it is what it is)

This post was after he made a post color coding the lynch on Dassem. How does he draw his conclusion? No idea. If he's partnered with Yedan, then this makes sense. If he's not, still doesn't matter since he lynched Icarium instead of his top preference of Fiddler. I'm curious what he thinks today.

On re-reading the lynch of Dassem, I am finding nothing new or anything that is changing my mind. I've almost forgotten why Fiddler looked so suspicious initially so I'm going to have to go back and pay attention. It's just become habit at this point (I mean, it's overdefensiveness and such, but specifically what were the cases on him)

I've made what, 2-3 cases on Fiddler at this stage? Onos posted against him before as well. Togg remembers none. Did Togg go back and look? Nah. Over-defensiveness was not the case so saying that, he basically marginalizes it.

I feel like I'm being set up here by Tehol. I just get smarm from this and my gut reacted, thus my willingness (too late) to switch over.

To explain this, I don't suspect you because you suspect me, it's the way you made the case. You're sure that I am FM, when some of the points against me are out of my control, and the other half of the points could be made against a number of players here. But you're sure I am the scum.

I'll just say two more things before I finish this. First, he spent a good amount of time at the end of day 3 saying he didn't want to lynch me and didn't agree with Onos case. Then, when I start posting against him, he's not starting to suspect me for "setting him up". To me, it's looking like the Icarium situation all over again. He's backtracking on me because he needs a reason to vote me today.

I'm not sure I can be any clearer on why I think he's guilty. I feel he hasn't really helped find FM. The only person he truly tried to look at was Rake. On day 2, he throws me on to his list based on attrition, puts me at the top since "I don't look great" and then lynches Rake. On day 3, he throws Icarium back on the table after defending him, chooses to lynch him over his #1 preference of Fiddler because Icarium "isn't trying very hard" and defends Yedan. He defended me at the end of the day but now, in night, he's already throwing doubt my way so he can vote me today. He's clearly FM but I'm not sure with who. If I had to put money on it, I'd say with Fiddler.

I will vote Toc the Younger now as he needs some pressure and because I think he's FM. I will vote Fiddler or Yedan if that's where the lynch goes though I'd prefer Fiddler.

I'll be gone for the next few hours though I will be on phone if anyone needs a quick answer.

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House Pommingham Commoner

House Pommingham

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Ok, I'll say this. Toc is 100% definitely in the suspect pool. He's gotten day passes because of the wolves, but has done nothing himself to make him PI. I'm still working through the game balance analysis, which is what will probably sway me in the end. In the meantime, Toc, I have a question for you:

So, to answer the obvious questions, I did not chose the timing of becoming D'ivers. I knew from the beginning that I would start Day 2 like this. It was not triggered by a NK or vig attempt. Don't ask how long this state lasts or if I can go in and out of this state, because that I will not answer.

Why would you not answer?

To clear up some things about my role. I already said it was always destined to be at the beginning of day 2. It will last 2 days (so tomorrow I will be Toc). Two is the most it will split into. There is nothing else that can trigger this state, so once I am back as Toc, I will never be the wolves again.

Why did you change your mind?

My gut impression is that an FM would want to maintain the flexibility about how his role works, but I'm not a blind follower of gut like some and want to give you the opportunity to explain your thinking.

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House Tyrell Commoner

House Tyrell

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My gut impression is that an FM would want to maintain the flexibility about how his role works, but I'm not a blind follower of gut like some and want to give you the opportunity to explain your thinking.

Maybe, I'm the blind folower of my gut, but I think if we don't kill Fiddler, we are damn bad players.

And vote. Please vote. Fiddler or Toc. Or whether you want.

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House Pommingham Commoner

House Pommingham

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but I think if we don't kill Fiddler, we are damn bad players.

I've been saying this for two days now. The sheep think he's too obvious to actually be an FM, whatever that means. :rolleyes: Forget for a second that he admits to being inexperienced, making the obvious read more likely to be correct.

I'll vote in a bit. I want to chase down a few more things first.

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House Pommingham Commoner

House Pommingham

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Here is how I am thinking about the game balance possibilities:

A )

3 FM - 1 poisoner, 1 guard

13 innocents - 1 healer, 1 vigilante, 1 limited semi-finder, 1 di'vers

B )

3 FM - 1 poisoner, 1 di'vers

13 innocents - 1 healer, 1 vigilante, 1 limited semi-finder

Some people here have expressed knowledge of how WJ would balance a game. Would those people, especially if you are in the VPI/PI camp, please post which of balance A and B seems more reasonable (or if you think either could be reasonable).

ETA: numerical mistake

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