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Mafia Game 78 - Tales of the Malazan Book of the Fallen


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Strange and stranger. I don't know what to make of Sandalath's demise. It could be poison, but would that explain why the body is in such a "dessicated" state? Would poison work like that? Sandy just disappears and then we find a hidden corpse? Something doesn't add up there. I think it has to do with the hidden role, but no clue what it might be beyond that.

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Here is how I am thinking about the game balance possibilities:

A )

3 FM - 1 poisoner, 1 guard

13 innocents - 1 healer, 1 vigilante, 1 limited semi-finder, 1 di'vers

B )

3 FM - 1 poisoner, 1 di'vers

13 innocents - 1 healer, 1 vigilante, 1 limited semi-finder

Some people here have expressed knowledge of how WJ would balance a game. Would those people, especially if you are in the VPI/PI camp, please post which of balance A and B seems more reasonable (or if you think either could be reasonable).

ETA: numerical mistake

I think unless the person with "hidden" role comes out today we have to assume it was given to one of the FM, so I'd add a C to your list:

C) 3 FM - 1 poisoner, 1 hidden role

13 innocents - 1 healer, 1 vigilante, 1 limited semi-finder and/or 1 di'vers

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Strange and stranger. I don't know what to make of Sandalath's demise. It could be poison, but would that explain why the body is in such a "dessicated" state? Would poison work like that? Sandy just disappears and then we find a hidden corpse? Something doesn't add up there. I think it has to do with the hidden role, but no clue what it might be beyond that.

Whether it was poison or the magic invisibility acid that dessicates, I think it's clear that she's dead. Too mean to make the second post about the dessicated corpse misleading. I took it to be Draconus clearing up the ambiguity I pointed out about whether Sandy might be coming back to the game rather than dead. My read is that the FM had some sort of power to kill once without having the CF declare the person innocent/guilty. It's a weird power, but if the game had played out differently, it could have helped the FM claim a role. Bottom line is that I intend to treat you (Silchas) as a CI from here on out, as I don't see how Sandy could possibly be guilty at this point and she cleared you.
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I think unless the person with "hidden" role comes out today we have to assume it was given to one of the FM, so I'd add a C to your list:

C) 3 FM - 1 poisoner, 1 hidden role

13 innocents - 1 healer, 1 vigilante, 1 limited semi-finder

Silchas, your C is missing the di'vers . . .

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oh, and it's simple he's fighting a lost cause if one of his partners is there. whereas I can totally see him doing it as scum with a semi cleared, like if he gets the *other* people on the list lynched first then...well it gives town less time to work out who his buddy is. does that make sense?

Ok, just worked through this as promised and my hunch was right. This is NOT true Gruntle. We have four suspects and 2 lynches to hit an FM before game over. That means that Tehol's partner COULD be in the suspect pool and it would NOT be a lost cause.

For example: If the FM are, for example, Yedan and Tehol.

Today we lynch Fids

FM kill QB

Tomorrow we lynch Toc

FM kill Silchas

Next day its Gruntle and Onos for the good guys. Yedan and Tehol for the bad guys. Bad guys vote for night and win.

ETA: to clarify that my above scenario ASSUMES Gruntle is good, which is not necessarily true, but I do have him as less of a suspect.

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Silchas, your C is missing the di'vers . . .

Ah, my mistake. I fixed it. Should the FM have the hidden role, I think we would have been given a little extra help with the di'vers.

Of course, there's also the chance the hidden role is merely meant for obfuscation... in which case it's working for me at least.

As to my tiers, I think Fiddler may be the best route to go. I'll say again that I think he's too obvious, but obvious does not equal innocent and I'd have to kick myself square in the arse should he turn out to be evil but kept sneaking through each lynch.

I also think Tehol looks fairly innocent. He has been working too hard without actually trying to lead. Were he evil, I think he would be more forceful in getting us to vote his way rather than laying out the facts and allowing us to make up our minds. I'm also willing to temporarily forget about Yedan, as I was sure he and Icarium would have been teamed if either of them were evil.

That leaves Toc, Gruntle and Onos. Tehol makes some very good points regarding Toc, but I'd like to hear from him first. Think I'll give one of Gruntle or Onos a reread as soon as I can dedicate the time to it.

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I hate you SQL server.

Aaargh.

It is eating my messages.

I think FM don't have any hidden roles.

It'd not be fair to give them it.

It'd not be fair if they have got "the ace in the sleeve" since day 1.

So I hope this event/role/what_it_is is something neutral. It doesn't belong to us and doesn't belong to evil.

And, I will reply at one of Onos posts when I'll translate it.%)

Edit: Changed some words with not changing the sense.

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ugh - sql errors and no multiquote button.

Onos, I initially refused to say anything about the power because I didn't want to give the FM any more info on it and leave open the possibility that it could be used again. I had hoped that the FM would find me a good night kill target because of this when I reverted and take me out. I changed my mind because I realized this wasn't going to happen and came clean so the innos could have the whole story and make decisions based on what the role really was.

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Ok, for my money, here are my conclusions on possible FM partners in the suspect pool (excluding Gruntle from suspect pool).

Tehol: Not partners with Toc. I don't see the "distancing" upside of being the instigator against Toc today when it was not certain that Toc would looked on as PI by people. Can't see an FM come out of the gate against a partner in those circumstances. Possibly partners with Fids and Yedan. With Fids and Yedan, Tehol's posts scream WIFOM BS to me.

Fids: No partners with Yedan. Yedan's votes and posts against Fids also do not look like "distancing" to me. Possibly partners with Tehol and Toc.

Yedan: Possibly partners with Tehol and toc.

Toc: could be partners with Fids or Yedan.

That yields possible pairs:

Fids/Tehol

Fids/Toc

Tehol/Yedan

Tehol/Toc

Toc/Yedan

Toc is up there the most so sounds like the best lynch to me. Plus I think this works as a pressure vote. For the record, I still think Fids is super-duper guilty.

If Toc flips guilty, awesome. If Toc flips innocent that means we're down to:

Fids/Tehol

Tehol/Yedan

Tehol won't like where I'll be going there, but she's seems willing to stake the game on Toc anyway, and I'm sure she's competent to put up a good fight tomorrow to try and talk me out of it.

ETA: this cross-posted with Toc for the record. & Grammar

ETA2: I did the pairs wrong. See strike through. Totally changes the analysis. I suck. If pairs right now, then doesn't matter which of three we lynch, we get a clear lynch tomorrow.

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I HAVE A LAPTOP AT LEAST.

Hold on, I *distinctly* remember trull mentioning something about 2 kills, am I insane? Like before he died I'm almost certain he said something 'with 2 kills coming tonight'

What does everyone think of massclaim? Any point to it, with what seems like *all* our Pr's dead. Only downside is that it could out a healer, but if we leave it later we let FM have the opportunity to claim healer. Ugh. But if there's a healer and scum have a blocker then that means QB dies tonight and I'm all sorts of lost in this game.

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I am undecided on whether the non-CF read on the poison is what the undisclosed power is all about. It seems like it should be - we weren't told about this effect in the set up. Then again, it's really kind of a petty power (if that is what it is) Sandalath died at night on the first day the poison could take effect, on a suspect that would have been an ideal candidate. I'm calling that CI. So it doesn't seem to make a difference in the end. I'm coming down on the side of this being the extra 'power' because it was outlined nowhere. There's nothing saying the power has to be overly useful.

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ugh - sql errors and no multiquote button.

Onos, I initially refused to say anything about the power because I didn't want to give the FM any more info on it and leave open the possibility that it could be used again. I had hoped that the FM would find me a good night kill target because of this when I reverted and take me out. I changed my mind because I realized this wasn't going to happen and came clean so the innos could have the whole story and make decisions based on what the role really was.

Multi-quote not working in Explorer for me but is in Firefox.

This is believable, but then why not tell us that it's ending in two days but leave open whether it can be used again?

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