[ADWD SPOILERS] Ned, Brandon and Ashara

[BladeDancer]

Allyria never states that Ned and Ashara slept together, does she? She tells Edric they were in love, but that Ned slept with Wylla (unless I'm misremembering). Do you think that Ned slept with Wylla? Because if you don't, then that means Allyria got at least one part of the story wrong, so who's to say she didn't get the rest of it wrong as well?

I don't believe Ned slept with Wylla. I believe that Wylla would have clamed this though to help cover the story of Jon Origins. She would do this, if she had been loyal to Rhaegar or Lyanna.

If Allyria believes that Ned and Ashara were in love, then she would assume that Ned was the father. The truth about Jon Snow and his origins is different than the truth about the origins of Ashara's stillborn. It is possible to know one without the other. After all you are claiming that Selmy knows one without the other.

My belief is that Ned and Ashara trusted each other, so that Ned explained to her the truth about Jon Snow (R+L=J). Ashara promised to keep this a secret because Ned asked this of her, plus because her Brother died to protect Jon. As Ashara knew the truth about Jon Snow, she was kind to Wylla and let her stay at Starfall. That is speculation though in order to explain why Wylla stayed. We simply don't know how long Ned was at Starfall, how he left (by ship etc), whether he left with Jon Snow, or whether Jon Snow left at a later date when he was a bit older. It seems likely that Jon Snow at least stayed at Starfall for a few months as young babes are very vulnerable and not up to long journeys. We also don't know where Ned went directly from Starfall. It seems likely he went back to KL for some time to see Robert crowned and then when he returned North he sent for Jon Snow too.

The major difference between the origins of Jon Snow and the truth about Ashara's love affair is that the first is Jon Snow's secret and the second is Ashara's secret. Ashara might have felt comfortable confiding in her sister that she had a love affair with Ned. However even if she knew the truth about Jon Snow, she would have been told by Ned, that if this secret got out then Jon Snow would be killed by Robert. So the consequences of sharing these secrets with family members are very different. It is possible that Allyria does not know the truth about Jon Snow because Ashara or Ned did not tell her. It is also possible that Allyria does know the truth about Jon Snow but did not tell Edric.

The point is that Allyria did not make up the story about Jon Snow being Ned's and Wylla's. That was Wylla and Ned's cover story for Jon Snow. Whether Allyria knows the truth or not she relays the cover story to Edric because there are still consequences for Jon if the real story leaks.

I don't see how this means she got the story about Ashara's love wrong, because it requires someone to make it up such that Allyria believes it. If Brandon is the father then why is the belief in Starfall not that Ashara and Brandon fell in love. It is not that Brandon's story is not known, but why then the belief in Ned Stark as the Father? There requires some interaction between Ned and Ashara for this story to be believed. One dance is not enough as Ashara danced with several men that night. Ned Stark arriving at Starfall is also not enough as he just 'fesses up to killing Arthur! I am not sure why Allyria would believe that the bearer of this news would get Ashara in the mood.

[BrainFireBob]

I don't believe Ned slept with Wylla. I believe that Wylla would have clamed this though to help cover the story of Jon Origins. She would do this, if she had been loyal to Rhaegar or Lyanna.

If Allyria believes that Ned and Ashara were in love, then she would assume that Ned was the father. The truth about Jon Snow and his origins is different than the truth about the origins of Ashara's stillborn. It is possible to know one without the other. After all you are claiming that Selmy knows one without the other.

My belief is that Ned and Ashara trusted each other, so that Ned explained to her the truth about Jon Snow (R+L=J). Ashara promised to keep this a secret because Ned asked this of her, plus because her Brother died to protect Jon. As Ashara knew the truth about Jon Snow, she was kind to Wylla and let her stay at Starfall. That is speculation though in order to explain why Wylla stayed. We simply don't know how long Ned was at Starfall, how he left (by ship etc), whether he left with Jon Snow, or whether Jon Snow left at a later date when he was a bit older. It seems likely that Jon Snow at least stayed at Starfall for a few months as young babes are very vulnerable and not up to long journeys. We also don't know where Ned went directly from Starfall. It seems likely he went back to KL for some time to see Robert crowned and then when he returned North he sent for Jon Snow too.

The major difference between the origins of Jon Snow and the truth about Ashara's love affair is that the first is Jon Snow's secret and the second is Ashara's secret. Ashara might have felt comfortable confiding in her sister that she had a love affair with Ned. However even if she knew the truth about Jon Snow, she would have been told by Ned, that if this secret got out then Jon Snow would be killed by Robert. So the consequences of sharing these secrets with family members are very different. It is possible that Allyria does not know the truth about Jon Snow because Ashara or Ned did not tell her. It is also possible that Allyria does know the truth about Jon Snow but did not tell Edric.

The point is that Allyria did not make up the story about Jon Snow being Ned's and Wylla's. That was Wylla and Ned's cover story for Jon Snow. Whether Allyria knows the truth or not she relays the cover story to Edric because there are still consequences for Jon if the real story leaks.

I don't see how this means she got the story about Ashara's love wrong, because it requires someone to make it up such that Allyria believes it. If Brandon is the father then why is the belief in Starfall not that Ashara and Brandon fell in love. It is not that Brandon's story is not known, but why then the belief in Ned Stark as the Father? There requires some interaction between Ned and Ashara for this story to be believed. One dance is not enough as Ashara danced with several men that night. Ned Stark arriving at Starfall is also not enough as he just 'fesses up to killing Arthur! I am not sure why Allyria would believe that the bearer of this news would get Ashara in the mood.

Because she was a child and didn't understand what was going on, or got the story secondhand later.

So, a speculated story. And then she randomly decides to commit suicide? Doesn't add up. You're also reaching to find some way where Ashara would confide in her baby sister- who again, may not even have been born.

EDIT: You're also interjecting belief. I, at least, am trying to figure out what Martin intended to happen, based on the clues we are given.

[BladeDancer]

No we don't.

We have a servant gossiping about Ned crushing on her.

We have the Reeds noting she danced with Ned at Brandon's request. This means she also had flings with Barristan, Oberyn, Connington (hot enough to overcome homosexuality? Smoking), etc. A non-entry.

We have Edric Dayne repeating a third hand story.

None of this means a fling.

We have just as much direct evidence, if we are sticking to that standard, as we do for Ned.

Indirectly, Brandon has had a fling prior to Harrenhal, Ned has not.

We have the same zero about Ned.

Simple: Did Ashara live with her sister at all aside from a few months? She was the lady-in-waiting of the princess, after all. That's not living at Starfall.

Or, incidentally, there were two Daynes at Harrenhal. Both are now dead. Who could have told the family the difference.

Hell, the family could think it was Ned, knowing only that it was a Stark. Why would she flaunt her dishonor to her family?

At a minimum, we should assume they are of an age since they are betrothed. The rebellion was 14, 15 years ago. That puts an upper bound on Allyria's age of seven to eight.

It does not require a stretch. You are just married to the idea that she and her sister were best friends ohmigosh gigglegiggle pillowfight despite the necessary age difference and immaturity of the younger sister and that a devoted admirer who was competing for her attention knows less about who she did sleep with. I am *not* the one making a stretch.

EDIT: Incidentally, Ashara's inner circle was most probably, given her situation, Elia's inner circle. Notice at least part of it's quite dead.

Also, if you accept that the long betrothal was cause by her youth, the lower bound for her age at the time of Ashara's suicide is "not born yet."

I don't think it is unlikely that Ashara spoke to her close family members about her life. You make it seem farfetched when the reality is that such a situation is more likely than not. Unless we know for sure that the siblings are not close then the default is to assume that they are. The default is that siblings talk to each other. It does require a stretch to claim that Ashara would not be likely to talk about how she became pregnant with some of her family. I expect they were curious.

You are stating that Ashara is not likely to confide in any of her family members about how she got knocked up. I think this is a massive stretch. You think that Selmy is more likely to know the truth of the matter. Again a massive leap away from the realms of likelihood. Unless Selmy was guarding

Ashara Dayne's bedchamber, how would he know who she slept with? Didn't Selmy have to concentrate on fighting in the tournament as well as guarding both Rhaegar and Aerys? Are you sure he had time to stalk Ashara too? Seems very unlikely.

Does Selmy say Brandon Stark? No he does not. However his testimony is the bedrock of your theory. He could simply be referring to Ned with the Stark monicker. Regardless of who he meant, Selmy could simply have been wrong. Selmy thinks Hizdabr poisoned the food he offers to Dany. So he arrests Hizdabr. We still don't know whether he was right or not. So Selmy could very well be wrong about other things too. We don't even know whether Selmy knows abot the TOJ events. Selmy himself says Rhaegar did not trust him like Rhaegar trusted Arthur Dayne. So if Selmy does not even know about Ned going to Starfall then he could jump to the wrong conclusion about her apparent suicide.

You still have to explain why Ned would take Jon Snow to Starfall and expect to be given safe reception if Ned did not have someone who he knew very well at Starfall.

[BrainFireBob]

I don't think it is unlikely that Ashara spoke to her close family members about her life. You make it seem farfetched when the reality is that such a situation is more likely than not. Unless we know for sure that the siblings are not close then the default is to assume that they are. The default is that siblings talk to each other. It does require a stretch to claim that Ashara would not be likely to talk about how she became pregnant with some of her family. I expect they were curious.

By this point, that's dishonestly disingenuous. She may have spoken with her parents, but you are equating that with speaking with a sister who ranged in age from unborn to child. There is no reason to assume she would confide the details, especially since, even at the maximum age, this is a person she barely knows. (Always at court).

You also are using modern morality, with no evidence of it being a shame that the family was unhappy about and did not want discussed. You are reinterpreting the situation to suit your argument unless of dealing with what was there.

You are stating that Ashara is not likely to confide in any of her family members about how she got knocked up. I think this is a massive stretch. You think that Selmy is more likely to know the truth of the matter. Again a massive leap away from the realms of likelihood. Unless Selmy was guarding

Ashara Dayne's bedchamber, how would he know who she slept with? Didn't Selmy have to concentrate on fighting in the tournament as well as guarding both Rhaegar and Aerys? Are you sure he had time to stalk Ashara too? Seems very unlikely.

Selmy was part of the social circle centered on Ashara. He'd have firsthand info on who was successful in getting her attention, beyond the sister, which I discuss above. You keep ignoring this fact and trying to claim to what I have begun to suspect is your only remaining point: She told everything to her BFF sister, so it trumps what Selmy saw. Which does not make sense given the relative ages.

Seriously, I'm close to my brother. Yet I would take my buddy's version of what happened at a party I went (that he was at) between my wife and I over my brother's version, even if I told him about it. Because my buddy was there and saw for himself, even if not all of it. My brother only knows what I want him to know.

Does Selmy say Brandon Stark? No he does not. However his testimony is the bedrock of your theory. He could simply be referring to Ned with the Stark monicker. Regardless of who he meant, Selmy could simply have been wrong. Selmy thinks Hizdabr poisoned the food he offers to Dany. So he arrests Hizdabr. We still don't know whether he was right or not. So Selmy could very well be wrong about other things too. We don't even know whether Selmy knows abot the TOJ events. Selmy himself says Rhaegar did not trust him like Rhaegar trusted Arthur Dayne. So if Selmy does not even know about Ned going to Starfall then he could jump to the wrong conclusion about her apparent suicide.

No, the bedrock is that Brandon has shown he's willing to do this, and it would be surprising is Ned actually impregnated a woman he was not married to. Since Barristan has indicated that happened, and there are only two options, and one has shown behavior that is consistent, and one has shown behavior such that it would be a shock, the likely one is the first brother.

You still have to explain why Ned would take Jon Snow to Starfall and expect to be given safe reception if Ned did not have someone who he knew very well at Starfall.

1) He did know Ashara, this is not binary

2) He was returning Dawn, which is honorable

3) He had Rhaegar's son with him, and needed their help to conceal this fact- they were staunch royalists.

[BladeDancer]

How exactly does saying that Ned and Ashara fell in love with each other count as impugning his honor?

Well if she has a baby and the story is that Ned and her fell in love, it sort of follows that Ned and her had sex to produce said baby. If Ned does not marry her then some have argued this is dishonourable and that the honourable thing is to marry someone you knock up.

Some people have argued this very matter in this thread. Why didn't Ned and Ashara get married if they were in love. Ned could never have been the one to knock up Ned and not marry her because it is inconsistent with his character. All this has been argued by various people in this and the other thread.

Indeed Selmy refers to Stark dishonouring Ashara. and some have argued that this behaviour fits Brandon more than Ned. It seems strange why I have to explain this to you.

[BrainFireBob]

Well if she has a baby and the story is that Ned and her fell in love, it sort of follows that Ned and her had sex to produce said baby. If Ned does not marry her then some have argued this is dishonourable and that the honourable thing is to marry someone you knock up.

Some people have argued this very matter in this thread. Why didn't Ned and Ashara get married if they were in love. Ned could never have been the one to knock up Ned and not marry her because it is inconsistent with his character. All this has been argued by various people in this and the other thread.

Indeed Selmy refers to Stark dishonouring Ashara. and some have argued that this behaviour fits Brandon more than Ned. It seems strange why I have to explain this to you.

Especially since the mark of Robb being Ned's son is that he broke off an engagement to marry a girl he knocked up, implying that Ned would have done the same.

[BladeDancer]

I asked this in another thread (thinking it was this one, damn this argument has spread out of control!) but do we know enough to say that Ned's character was the same throughout his entire life? We've seen enough characters change due to circumstance and in reaction to events so it's reasonable to assume the Ned at 35 wasn't the same Ned at 18. He was obviously never a Robert but he did reminisce about his romantic view of the world and his love of Knights (much like Sansa). He may have been shy but he could have been caught up in the romance of the occasion. He may not have shared Robert's excesses but it's fair to say that, given their close bond, Ned wasn't a complete sourpuss otherwise Ned's relationship with Robert would be more like Robert's with Stannis.

In between that time Ned's father and Brother were killed horribly, his sister kidnapped and raped (or so he probably thought), has to marry his brother's betrothed to secure and alliance and he's thrust into being the head of his house and the North as well as a leading general in a rebellion. That's got to change a person, strip them of any of the playfulness and carelessness they had as a youth.

A very good post. People behave in different ways at different stages of their life and certainly experiences change people. It is not wonder that at the time of AGOT, Ned is dour and not full of joy and exuberance. Perhaps going through several wars losing his Brother and Sister and Father and some of his best friends all in tragic circumstances has knocked his playfulness away. If he had to marry someone and this resulted in him losing the chance to be with the woman he fell in love with who then as a result committed suicide then he might understandably feel less than jolly.

We don't really know much about Ned Stark's personality when he young. All we have really heard is that he was shy. Anything more is projection based on his personality from Book 1.

[BrainFireBob]

A very good post. People behave in different ways at different stages of their life and certainly experiences change people. It is not wonder that at the time of AGOT, Ned is dour and not full of joy and exuberance. Perhaps going through several wars losing his Brother and Sister and Father and some of his best friends all in tragic circumstances has knocked his playfulness away. If he had to marry someone and this resulted in him losing the chance to be with the woman he fell in love with who then as a result committed suicide then he might understandably feel less than jolly.

We don't really know much about Ned Stark's personality when he young. All we have really heard is that he was shy. Anything more is projection based on his personality from Book 1.

And Robert chiding him for refusing to indulge, and Robert would know from the period where he was the age in question.

[BladeDancer]

You are ignoring the context of R+L=J.

Ned has already spread the story that the mother of his son is one Wylla. If people question that, then who knows if the truth might be revealed?

More, Catelyn was asking about Jon's mother, not his relationship with Ashara in a vacuum. By staring her down, he can avoid directly lying. You've gone into the argument that Ned would have told Cat, a woman he barely knew, about his sister's death and his oath to protect the secret.

If there is no relationship with Ashara, it is perfectly possible for Ned to state to Cat that there is no basis to stories linking the two romantically. End of Story. He does not deny anything about Wylla, so that cover story would remain intact. It is quite clear that Ned could reassure Cat, his wife, that Ashara is not a rival for his heart without divulging the origin of Jon Snow. One does not require the other. It is strange you would suggest they do.

Instead Ned behaves very strangely. Go back and read the passage. Cat is scared by Ned's reaction.

[Dragonfish]

Well if she has a baby and the story is that Ned and her fell in love, it sort of follows that Ned and her had sex to produce said baby. If Ned does not marry her then some have argued this is dishonourable and that the honourable thing is to marry someone you knock up.

But that's not what Allyria says. She only claims, as far as we know, that Ned and Ashara fell in love at Harrenhal. How is that supposed to be a dishonor? You are the one extrapolating from her statement that Ned and Ashara had sex. But that is not what Allyria says. I'm surprised I have to explain this to you.

[BrainFireBob]

If there is no relationship with Ashara, it is perfectly possible for Ned to state to Cat that there is no basis to stories linking the two romantically. End of Story. He does not deny anything about Wylla, so that cover story would remain intact. It is quite clear that Ned could reassure Cat, his wife, that Ashara is not a rival for his heart without divulging the origin of Jon Snow. One does not require the other. It is strange you would suggest they do.

Instead Ned behaves very strangely. Go back and read the passage. Cat is scared by Ned's reaction.

Yes, because that is how he deals with telling lies. He has no practice, so he's not very good at it. So he makes it a closed issue.

Remember, they hardly knew each other and were newly married. She was asking about his (recently dead) sister's son, that he swore some sort of vow to protect. He's already decided on a cover story, he claims it's Wylla's child. That name is consistent in the various rumors about Jon's mother. This servant is spreading an alternate story, that will not do.

[Anshel]

Remember, they hardly knew each other and were newly married. She was asking about his (recently dead) sister's son, that he swore some sort of vow to protect. He's already decided on a cover story, he claims it's Wylla's child. That name is consistent in the various rumors about Jon's mother. This servant is spreading an alternate story, that will not do.

Not to mention -- his reaction scared Cat, but what he said was "Never ask me about Jon." Not, "Never ask me about that woman." Ned's reaction, to me, is consistent with his desire to keep the secret and keep Jon safe. He wanted her to stop asking questions about Jon, period, and his intensity about it seems to be what scared her.

[BladeDancer]

We have no evidence he was forced to end it. It just ended. You are turning what he had with Dustin ne Ryswell into a relationship. It could just as easily have been just sex, don't assume.

We don't even know if he was betrothed before Dustin, so that's a non-argument.

1 willing inappropriate sexual relationship is far more of a trend than zero, especially when we know he was impulsive and his brother uptight about morality. Brandon is far more likely than Ned, there can always be new information. If you want that kind of absolute proof, we don't even know that RICKARD is dead. There could be a badly burned beggar in king's landing . . .

As explained before, one incident is not a trend. You say that Brandon is far more likely than Ned. Obviously tis is in dispute otherwise I would be convinced by your points. However I am not.

You tell me not to assume and then you claim Brandon is more likely. That is an assumption.

How is Brandon possibly being betrothed a non-argument. Surely it is logical to agree that someone who is betrothed into House Tully is less likely to sleep with someone not his betrothed in the Riverlands? As stated we don't know when he got betrothed, but we cannot ignore it as a factor when ascertaining likelihood of it being Brandon.

[BrainFireBob]

As explained before, one incident is not a trend. You say that Brandon is far more likely than Ned. Obviously tis is in dispute otherwise I would be convinced by your points. However I am not.

You tell me not to assume and then you claim Brandon is more likely. That is an assumption.

How is Brandon possibly being betrothed a non-argument. Surely it is logical to agree that someone who is betrothed into House Tully is less likely to sleep with someone not his betrothed in the Riverlands? As stated we don't know when he got betrothed, but we cannot ignore it as a factor when ascertaining likelihood of it being Brandon.

We can when you are trying to use it as an argument for when the relationship with Dustin ne Ryswell ended. You have this fantasy out of your imagination that they were together until he was told he was marrying someone else. The betrothal could have been from her birth, it could have happened at Harrenhal. That's why it's a non-argument.

There is no assumption. We have one brother demonstrated willing to do something, one brother demonstrated to be unwilling to do anything of that nature, and one of them did it.

Psychologically demonstrated possible for Brandon

Psychologically atypical and highly unusual for Ned.

There's no assuming in saying that Brandon is more likely to do it, given it has been done.

Let me give you a similar argument, different context.

A king of Westeros has someone burned alive for the sheer sexual thrill.

That king was either Aegon the Unlikely or Mad King Aerys, at the end of his reign.

You are arguing that just because he was turned on by burning Rickard alive, Aegon was just as likely to have done it, especially if he really wanted to, and that there's no basis for assuming that Aerys would up and do it, because once is not a trend!

At this point, I am forced to conclude you have an emotional objection (perhaps you are emotionally attached to it being Ned) or you have an agenda, and are arguing for disingenuous reasons. Not because you disagree with me, but because you are trying to argue we don't have a trend for Brandon, when the counter argument is that we have precedent for Brandon, a man about whom we know nothing in this regard otherwise, and a character precedent for Ned that would make it surprising and shocking.

EDIT: My degree is in physics, and I do a lot of statistics work on my job. I will give this one last go.

You are trying to model it as a trend.

What we are discussing is whether an occurence, which was within known historic performance and characteristics for one proces but would be an outlier from another, is more likely to have come from the first data set, or the second data set.

[BladeDancer]

Because she was a child and didn't understand what was going on, or got the story secondhand later.

So, a speculated story. And then she randomly decides to commit suicide? Doesn't add up. You're also reaching to find some way where Ashara would confide in her baby sister- who again, may not even have been born.

EDIT: You're also interjecting belief. I, at least, am trying to figure out what Martin intended to happen, based on the clues we are given.

My speculation is about Wylla and why she was allowed to stay at Starfall. That is me trying to figure out what Martin intended to happen based on the clues we are given. You still have to explain why Ned thought it would be safe to take Jon Snow to Starfall when he did not really know anyone there.

You believe that Selmy is more clued up about Ashara than her own family. This is clearly stretching greatly beyond what is credible. You then have to come up with why Allyria would make up the story about Ned Stark.

[BladeDancer]

By this point, that's dishonestly disingenuous. She may have spoken with her parents, but you are equating that with speaking with a sister who ranged in age from unborn to child. There is no reason to assume she would confide the details, especially since, even at the maximum age, this is a person she barely knows. (Always at court).

You also are using modern morality, with no evidence of it being a shame that the family was unhappy about and did not want discussed. You are reinterpreting the situation to suit your argument unless of dealing with what was there.

Selmy was part of the social circle centered on Ashara. He'd have firsthand info on who was successful in getting her attention, beyond the sister, which I discuss above. You keep ignoring this fact and trying to claim to what I have begun to suspect is your only remaining point: She told everything to her BFF sister, so it trumps what Selmy saw. Which does not make sense given the relative ages.

1) He did know Ashara, this is not binary

2) He was returning Dawn, which is honorable

3) He had Rhaegar's son with him, and needed their help to conceal this fact- they were staunch royalists.

Your three point list is not sufficient explanation.

Journeying to Starfall with Jon Snow at that time is a massive risk for Ned as it is enemy territory. It is quite logical that he would be more likely to do this if had a good relationship with Ashara then if he did not. If Ned does not have a good relationship with the Daynes then why would they not lock him up or kill him or take Jon Snow away. If they are Royalists such that they are willing to cover the existence of Jon Snow then what is stopping them from taking Jon but then killing the man who helped overthrow the Targs that they love and who also killed Arthur. If they were such staunch Targ supporters then they have no reason to keep Ned alive. Killing Ned gets revenge for Rhaegar and Arthur and avenges any Starfall soldiers killed in the war and also heps keep the secret of Jon Snow's origin.

If Ned does not have a good relationship with the Dayne's then travelling to Starfall is the last thing he would do, considering that they are such firm Targ supporters so are more firmly against Ned's cause than most Dornish Houses. Starfall is the House whose most famous member (sorry Lord Dayne) Ned has just killed. So more reason to stay away from Starfall than most other Dornish Castles. So your argument about the Daynes being uber-loyal to the Targs clearly undermines your case about it being a reason for Ned to travel there with Jon Snow, as the risk to him increases. It is quite clear that Ned could return the sword Dawn at a later time or via a messenger. Returning the sword does not outweigh the fact that he and his rebellion are the main architects of the death of Rhaegar, Arthur and Elia plus others. It is insulting to suggest that they would call bygones on the entire war because he returns their House Sword.

It is also intellectually dishonest of you to claim that it is more likely that the Dayne family would not want to discuss with Ashara how she got pregnant because it is a shameful occurrence. It is a preposterous claim that her close family would not want to discuss her situation and find out some details. It beggars belief that you would even suggest such a ludicrous situation.

You have not addressed any points satisfactorily. You have not explained why Ashara would be more likely to hide the truth of her situation from her family such that they would subsequently believe she and Ned had a thing if actually Brandon knocked her up. You have not explained why Selmy would have more knowledge of Ashara's life than her own family who lived with her at Starfall. You have not explained why Ned would travel to Starfall expecting a safe reception if he barely knew Ashara but having just killed Arthur. You have not sufficiently explained why no-one ever says that Brandon has a thing with Ashara, not even Selmy and that this has not been foreshadowed in any previous books.

Your explanations for each of these things are too far-fetched. You rely on making unlikely reasons why Selmy is more informed than the Dayne family. You rely on one incident of Brandon having a relationship to extrapolate a trend of behaviour, even though Brandon might have been betrothed at the Tourney of Harrenhall. You also fail to produce convincing arguments why Ned would have travelled to Starfall when he had reason to stay away unless he had a relationship with Ashara

I appreciate your time and your efforts but I don't think they are cover anything new that Corbon and others have not argued previously. I remain massively unconvinced.

[BladeDancer]

But that's not what Allyria says. She only claims, as far as we know, that Ned and Ashara fell in love at Harrenhal. How is that supposed to be a dishonor? You are the one extrapolating from her statement that Ned and Ashara had sex. But that is not what Allyria says. I'm surprised I have to explain this to you.

I explained this already. If Ashara has a baby (which is the case according to Selmy) and the Dayne explanation for this is that Ashara and Ned fell in love then obviously this infers a sexual relationship. Surely that is self-evident. I am surprised I have to explain this to you, twice.

You have another explanation for Ned and Ashara falling in love but Ashara having a baby? Virgin birth?

[BladeDancer]

Yes, because that is how he deals with telling lies. He has no practice, so he's not very good at it. So he makes it a closed issue.

Remember, they hardly knew each other and were newly married. She was asking about his (recently dead) sister's son, that he swore some sort of vow to protect. He's already decided on a cover story, he claims it's Wylla's child. That name is consistent in the various rumors about Jon's mother. This servant is spreading an alternate story, that will not do.

Interesting. But still does not explain why Ned would not flat out refute the Ashara story. He could have done so and still sniffed out the source of the gossip.

[firestorm]

Not to mention -- his reaction scared Cat, but what he said was "Never ask me about Jon." Not, "Never ask me about that woman." Ned's reaction, to me, is consistent with his desire to keep the secret and keep Jon safe. He wanted her to stop asking questions about Jon, period, and his intensity about it seems to be what scared her.

"Never ask me about Jon"

Not only that but "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know"

Not "my son", he said "My blood".

Lyanna's "Promise me Ned" moment before she died lends credence to the idea that Jon was her's and Rhaegar's. Ned once said "even the lie was not.....without honor" to Arya, and if he promised his sister on her deathbed to lie for her, and in doing so, saved a child from being murdered, it is completely within character.

The idea that Ned knocked up Ashara is not so out there for me. He was young, not betrothed, and it was in the air. He may never have even known she was preggo since a shitstorm started the moment Rhaegar placed that queen of love and beauty laurel on Lyanna's head.

[BladeDancer]

We can when you are trying to use it as an argument for when the relationship with Dustin ne Ryswell ended. You have this fantasy out of your imagination that they were together until he was told he was marrying someone else. The betrothal could have been from her birth, it could have happened at Harrenhal. That's why it's a non-argument.

There is no assumption. We have one brother demonstrated willing to do something, one brother demonstrated to be unwilling to do anything of that nature, and one of them did it.

Psychologically demonstrated possible for Brandon

Psychologically atypical and highly unusual for Ned.

There's no assuming in saying that Brandon is more likely to do it, given it has been done.

Let me give you a similar argument, different context.

A king of Westeros has someone burned alive for the sheer sexual thrill.

That king was either Aegon the Unlikely or Mad King Aerys, at the end of his reign.

You are arguing that just because he was turned on by burning Rickard alive, Aegon was just as likely to have done it, especially if he really wanted to, and that there's no basis for assuming that Aerys would up and do it, because once is not a trend!

At this point, I am forced to conclude you have an emotional objection (perhaps you are emotionally attached to it being Ned) or you have an agenda, and are arguing for disingenuous reasons. Not because you disagree with me, but because you are trying to argue we don't have a trend for Brandon, when the counter argument is that we have precedent for Brandon, a man about whom we know nothing in this regard otherwise, and a character precedent for Ned that would make it surprising and shocking.

EDIT: My degree is in physics, and I do a lot of statistics work on my job. I will give this one last go.

You are trying to model it as a trend.

What we are discussing is whether an occurence, which was within known historic performance and characteristics for one proces but would be an outlier from another, is more likely to have come from the first data set, or the second data set.

But your argument about one incident implying greater likelihood because of precedent could be applied to lots of things, Jame killing Kings, Robert overthrowing Kings, Lyanna running off with married men, Selmy deposing Kings, Varys killing Hands. All these things happened only once. They cannot be used to predict repeat incidences with any accuracy.

I am not arguing against this theory because I have an emotional attachment to Ned+Ashara or have an agenda but simply due to the following...

Ned +Ashara is the simplest explanation and has more support from the books and what we know of human behaviour. It explains sufficiently why Allyria would claim that Ned and Ashara were in love. It explains sufficiently why Ned felt it safe to travel to Starfall and was able to do so without any harm. It explains why the issue is referenced by Harwin and Cersei. It sufficiently explains why Ashara committed suicide. It sufficiently explains why Ned does not want Cat to talk about Ashara. It explains why no-one has ever mentioned a whisper of Brandon and Ashara until now.

Your theory explains none of this. It completely rely's on Selmy's vague reference being about Brandon. And yet you cannot claim to be sure on this one issue because Selmy is not explicit. Yet if Selmy is referring to Ned then is merely a further corroboration of everything we have heard before regarding Ned and Ashara. Ned+Ashara as a theory does not hinge on Selmy's statement. It is based on other textual evidence. I should point out that in ADWD alone we have Ramsey Bolton, Lord Godric, Dany, Davos, one of the Lords who meet with Ramsey - either Umber or Karstark, Jorah, Jon Connington and Rowan (one of Mance's wildlings) all refer to Ned Stark using the simple label Stark, clearly demonstrating this term is often used to refer to Ned. Suddenly when Selmy uses it is suddenly referring to Brandon! LOL. I Your theory relies on elaborate explanations where we have to believe that the Dayne family is completely clueless on this issue and does not explain why Brandon/Ashara had not even been hinted at in previous books.

You have had plenty of chances to explain why your theory is more likely. You have not provided any compelling arguments. I have spent lots of time on this issue and clogged up this thread with my input. I will now leave the issue, everyone can read my opinion on it and agree or disagree as they see fit. The evidence has all been debated on both sides, back and forth. Nothing new is being presented. I will bow out and lurk. I may enter if I see some new arguments but frankly Corbon had already covered everything with great eloquence that has been discussed by Dragonfish and your good self.

I will certainly revisit this thread when the truth in revealed in the books and eat crow or gloat depending on the revelations. Hopefully GRRM will have a spoiler chapter which addresses this very issue. Otherwise it might be a year or two. People might be still be arguing this issue by then but I have said enough for now.

Thanks for chatting.