[ADWD SPOILERS] Ned, Brandon and Ashara

[inkasrain]

Lady Babrey's story is about an affair with Brandon that was terminated because of the betrothal. It is there in the story...

Citation, please :)

if you believe it, which I don't, because she shows no hostility towards Brandon or Rickard, the authors of the severed tie. She shows hostility for Ned, but he did nothing to her, directly.

I think she's pretty blunt about Rickard, and I don't recall her slavering unreservedly over Brandon in that scene. To me, it read like a combination of bitterness, regret, and the remnants of love-- reasonable feelings from a woman remembering her first lover, long dead. She is violently bitter about Ned, at least in my view, because she holds him responsible for the death of her husband, and the fact that he left his bones at the Tower of Joy. Her feelings are extreme, I agree, but hardly impossible.

The important part of the story is that it may be total fabrication, to see if Theon is relaying any information to either Ramsay or Roose. Lady Barbrey is sounding Theon out, as Tyrion sounded out the small council in CoK.

Sure, she could have been. There's no evidence of this that I'm aware of, though.

The point is that Brandon could have conveniently lost his duel to avoid the betrothal. Instead he goes ahead with it, and after getting to a point where Littlefinger should have yielded six times, still honors Catelyn's request to not kill him, to finish the duel.

Oh, please. Brandon's actions during the duel are in perfect sync with what we know him as a character. Catelyn's hand was a point of honor, whatever his personal feelings about his marriage, and Baelish insulted him with the challenge. And really, the idea that Brandon Stark would allow a piddly lordling-ward beat him in single combat, whether they were fighting over a woman or a lollypop, is laughable.

[Ygritte]

We basically have nothing to suggest that it's a fabrication, other than the fact that you don't want to believe it.

I think it's true but that her grudge isn't as strong as she claims. She does say "the north remembers" after all, and I wonder if that's becoming kind of a "secret handshake" for Stark supporters. I like the theory someone raised on here the other day, that the affair is real and was quite painful at the time, but she's pretending to still be seething about it to make herself look more loyal to the Boltons.

[jxd]

It doesn't say that Brandon broke it off immediately after learning of his betrothal to Catelyn. Only that he did break it off at some point. But he was betrothed for years, and there's nothing in this quote that suggests they did not continue their affair during this time. At best, we can probably assume that it was broken off at some point before she was married to Lord Dustin, which apparently occurred around a half a year before the war began.

It's the only way that sentence would make sense. That'd be the first thing they talk about when Brandon is betrothed.

[ishmael]

And Harwin wasn't at Harrenhal either. By his own admission, he heard the rumor when he was Arya's age.

They know nothing of the sort. The only ones who seem to "know" about Wylla are Robert, because Ned told him, and the Daynes, because they were somehow involved in Jon cover-up.

And this is what Ned's soldiers talked about re: Ashara:

"They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat (which we know to be false, BTW - according to Ned himself "he would have killed me but for Howland Reed"). And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in the castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes".

So, it all comes back to the same events - Ned bringing Ashara Ser Arthur's sword and her committing suicide soon after. There is no mention of soldiers witnessing anything special - they are just inferring from the stuff they have heard, like everybody else.

I never said he was there. His story is another separate rumor centered on Ned and Ashara.

You would have to continue on to where Cat thinks about the only time that Ned truly scared her. She asks him about the rumors that she had heard that Ashara was Jon's mother.

[ishmael]

Barristan thinks of them in the very same sentence, and ties them both to Ashara's suicide. It'd be a bit contrived if these events had no relation to each other.

And again, I have to ask: what else could the "dishonor" be?

Seriously? Your argument to refute what I wrote is that someone thinks about two possible causes for an event and links them in one sentence, so they have to be related and occur at or near the same time in history.

Well, by Barristan's estimation, it could have simply been someone slept with her. Does she feel that she was dishonored? We have no idea. She could have been raped, but getting pregnant is not the only option.

Yes, it's a cover story, meaning it's made up. Using a made-up story as evidence that Ned is capable of having sex outside of wedlock is not a very strong position to argue from.

I'm not arguing that. What I'm saying is that to Robert the story was Wylla, but in reality it was someone else.

Not necessarily. As corbon mentioned above, Barristan could simply be compressing events in his own mind. This happens a lot when people think about past occurrences. For instance, I could reasonably say to other people that George H.W. Bush was elected president not long after I was born. Of course, it was actually a year after I was born, but on the scale of my entire life since then, it was a relatively short period afterward when he was elected president. I don't see why Barristan couldn't be doing something similar in his own mind, especially given that he has lived a lot longer than I have.

Yes, I've read that idea, but it is not a very good one. Barristan has two rather significant events that he can reference Ashara's death to. It happened before them, between them, or after them. Her death would have been closer to 2 years following the stillbirth. That would be a quality argument if there were no historical reference points for him to relate the stillbirth and her death to.

Yes, but the discussion is about Jon's mother specifically. Ned tells Cat not to ask about Jon's mother ever again. He doesn't tell her not to ask about Ashara again. His anger is in relation to Jon, not Ashara.

No, Jon's mother is not the only thing being discussed in that conversation. The real question Cat wanted to know was whether Ashara was Jon's mother. You cannot separate the two in that argument. They had discussed his mother before without the kind of blow-up that Cat relates. The difference in the this conversation as compared to all of the others was the inquiry as to whether Ashara Dayne was Jon's mother. Ned shuts down any future inquiries about either Jon or Ashara, but also causes the mere mention of her name to cease at Winterfell.

I don't think this is true. Cat specifically recalls that this was the only time she had ever asked about Jon's mother, and she never asked again after Ned reacted the way he did.

She recalls that the reason she asked was because she had heard the rumors about Ashara Dayne.

[ishmael]

Citation, please :)

Page 547 American Hardback 3rd full paragraph (the first full paragraph is one line).

Sure, she could have been. There's no evidence of this that I'm aware of, though.

It is fairly obvious that she is actually in the crypts for another reason, but is also feeling Theon out to see if there is anything left of who he used to be.

[ishmael]

This to me is like trying to figure out a rubik's cube. I'm trying to keep track of all the dates, wide array of cast members and all their various motivations built up through all 5 books to reach some sort of answer that "fits."

I was initially skeptical about Brandon being the dishonourer, but have come around mostly because of the fire vs mud thought. My problem was accepting his brother would do this to Ned after he knew Ned liked her and knowing he was already promised to Cat. At this point, it is very awful thing to do to your brother who has a real shot at eventually marrying the girl being a second son and eligible bachelor. He also had just done his brother a solid by going up to her on Ned's behalf. To turn around and then pursue her himself is something I don't believe even Robert would have done, another known philanderer. If Brandon did betray his brothers' confidence because he was wild and into taking whatever he wanted, it is debatable to me whether Ned would recall him fondly. His "everything was destined for Brandon" sentiment is not enough I don't think to cover that sort of betrayal, but is more apt at explaining how Ned had to marry Cat and rule Winterfell as his duty, despite his relationships prior (which could have been with Ashara). He shows his equal love of his siblings when he didn't just have a statue of her installed in the crypts of Winterfell, but one of Brandon as well. This was an exception to tradition. Prior, only LORDS and KINGS deserved a spot in the crypt, not the sons, daughters or brothers. Ned did so as an example of his type of character - a deep feeling individual who had in the past put family and love above honour (Lyanna, his children in KL).

So did Ned dishonour her? I have read both for and against. Both Robb and John followed their hearts over duty. Ned, as I have said, has done so in the past as well, so it isn't completely out of character for him, especially if Ashara was like Ygritte (being Dornish, perhaps). But the question for me is when. The timelines regarding Harrenhal, the rebellion and the events in Starfall and the Tower of Joy are purposefully vague in that large time periods go by without explanation as to what transpired. On the first day of festivities, we know Ashara danced with Connington, Arthur, Oberyn and finally Ned after his brother went to speak with her on his behalf. After the dance though, we know Ned spent the night in his tent shared with Howland Reed. Did their relationship intensify afterward, or did their dance set in motion her "looking to Stark" after she was dishonoured? For me, I am grappling with the seemingly divergent tones as set up. Before Lyanna was crowned, all depictions are of people laughing, smiling and being young and pure. But the smiles died once Rhaegar passed by his wife. If the smiles died then and the associated innocence of all the characters, the dishonour, if it was consensual, must have come before the joust and if it was rape, is likely to have come after. It would be odd for Ashara to canoodle with a Stark right after her lady was embarrassed because of them.

Which gets me to the next point. Is Ashara somehow related to the Rhaegar-Elia-Lyanna conspiracy? We know Elia was sickly and may have condoned her husband fulfilling the prophecy of having more children. Perhaps that was the reason Elia made Ashara a lady-in-waiting. To bear the next heir for him. She has the Targaryen colouring and is from one of the most ancient families. Finding someone of notable physical uniqueness was important to Aerys anyway, who sent Robert's parents to Volantis and Lys. Thus, could Rhaegar have dishonoured her, knowing that the word dishonour is attributed by Barristan who is pretty much virginal and closed from a sexual side to him? The dishonour and childberth could have been Rhaegar's interest in her and then setting her aside for Lyanna and that is why Barristan puts so much guilt on himself for not winning the tourney and taking that decision away from Rhaegar.

But what of Lyanna herself? It is likely Rhaegar crowned her because he knew her identity as the Knight of the Laughing Tree. He knew crowning her in the typical social convention as the Queen of Beauty was the only option he had to praise a woman for her valour and bravery and socially conscious mind. He couldn't come out and tell everyone "here stands the mystery knight!" for his father Aerys had made it known he/she was an enemy of his and had sent Rhaegar to hunt him down. All Rhaegar found or said he found was the armour hanging on a tree. Perhaps, he found out more than he let on. After this, we have no further information on the whereabouts of Lyanna until the ToJ. If she ran off with him, why did her brothers return to the Vale and Riverrun mutually and not seek her out then and there?

Why did they go there, in the Dornish Marches and why did Arthur, the brother of Ashara stand guard? The location, people involved and nature of the after-effects (Ashara's suicide) may hint at Ashara's involvement in this can of worms somewhere. What that is, I think you can assume from the above, I have no idea.

I also had this crazy thought that maybe "looked to Stark" did not necessarily mean male Stark. Maybe, whatever happened to Ashara, caused Lyanna to get wind of it and seek out vigilante justice as she had done in the past. Benjen could have aided his sister, which caused his eventual exile to the Night's Watch (we know they were very close as well and he was heavily influenced by his sister). Whatever the violation was, I cannot say, but may have caused her to have a showdown with Rhaegar, the crown prince, who rather knew about what she did at Harrenhal or who she felt would be sympathetic to her cause because of awarding the crown to her. Her challenge here may have been controversial and dangerous - represented by Aerys and Dorne, but he was personally sympathetic and they fell into a relationship forged from mutual respect and attraction and is why he took her to the Dornish marches far from all the dangerous arenas of KL, Winterfell (if Lyanna ran off without permission) and Sunspear.

I will end by saying all my conclusions are heavily speculative and stem from pretty much no information at all. They do go against the information we do have though, which is Ashara was dishonoured at Harrenhal and that she grieved for whoever did the apparent dishonouring (Barristan may be biased here). He says young girls always prefer fire and Brandon is all wild fire and he dies so can be grieved. From Lady Dustin we know he had no true care for marrying Cat and didn't scoff at taking what he wanted, and that was killing and fucking. That is all well and good, but as a lot of people have said, Ned has a stronger established relationship with her based on accepted rumour in Winterfell, KL (though Robert knew nothing of it; Cersei did) and Starfall. At this point, the author seems to be clouding the issue further so we understand the nature of the tooted Targaryens (Dany, Aegon, John) less and less.

Nice overall summary, and I agree that Martin is clouding the issue up more that clearing it. As far as Ned and Ashara getting together, in one of the early So Spake Martin question and answer sessions, Martin was asked whether Ashara was at Starfall throughout the war. He responded that she was not nailed to the floor of Starfall, and they had horses and she could and did move around during the war. Now this is not conclusive, but the line of questioning was hinting at Ned and Ashara being able to see each other despite being on opposite sides of the war. Lyanna did not leave Harrenhal with Rhaegar. The war started 1-2 years after Harrenhal (again this is through Martin), so I take that to mean that it could have been somewhere between 8-15 months after Harrenhal before R and L disappeared.

[Dragonfish]

Seriously? Your argument to refute what I wrote is that someone thinks about two possible causes for an event and links them in one sentence, so they have to be related and occur at or near the same time in history.

Barristan says that she "grieves" for her lost child, and perhaps for the "man who dishonored her" as well. Most likely the "dishonor" was that someone slept with her out of wedlock. So we have a lost child and a lost lover. And you're arguing that these two things aren't connected? If anything, whoever she slept with is the default choice for the father, until we found out more information.

Well, by Barristan's estimation, it could have simply been someone slept with her. Does she feel that she was dishonored? We have no idea. She could have been raped, but getting pregnant is not the only option.

Right, someone slept with her. That's what I'm saying. If you admit that she probably slept with someone at Harrenhal, then the Law of Conservation of Detail suggests that the man she slept with is the father of her child.

I'm not arguing that. What I'm saying is that to Robert the story was Wylla, but in reality it was someone else.

Or in reality there was no one else, and the cover story was made up to protect Jon.

Yes, I've read that idea, but it is not a very good one. Barristan has two rather significant events that he can reference Ashara's death to. It happened before them, between them, or after them. Her death would have been closer to 2 years following the stillbirth. That would be a quality argument if there were no historical reference points for him to relate the stillbirth and her death to.

Well, we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I for one think that as people get older, they tend to compress past events in their minds. That's what I think Barristan might be doing here.

The real question Cat wanted to know was whether Ashara was Jon's mother. You cannot separate the two in that argument. They had discussed his mother before without the kind of blow-up that Cat relates.

Citation? I don't think the book ever mentions Catelyn asking Ned about Jon's mother before this incident.

[Anaxilas]

Nice overall summary, and I agree that Martin is clouding the issue up more that clearing it. As far as Ned and Ashara getting together, in one of the early So Spake Martin question and answer sessions, Martin was asked whether Ashara was at Starfall throughout the war. He responded that she was not nailed to the floor of Starfall, and they had horses and she could and did move around during the war. Now this is not conclusive, but the line of questioning was hinting at Ned and Ashara being able to see each other despite being on opposite sides of the war. Lyanna did not leave Harrenhal with Rhaegar. The war started 1-2 years after Harrenhal (again this is through Martin), so I take that to mean that it could have been somewhere between 8-15 months after Harrenhal before R and L disappeared.

And conceivably, she could have visited ToJ as well then. Why would an unmarried daughter be moving around in a war though? Sure, Dorne was not hit and social occasions might have continued as old and that is what Martin was referring to, but who knows.

The 1-2 year gap between Harrenhal and the rebellion I can’t explain the why. To me (in my ignorance of course of what went down, like the rest of us), it would make a lot of narrative sense for Lyanna to go off with Rhaegar soon afterwards, else she would be removed from his influence in far away Winterfell. For her to be abducted by him, she would have a hard time escaping Winterfell and riding down the kings road or to White Harbour and taking a ship to KL. Trusting words to ravens is also problematic for a crown prince who has a wife and Lyanna who has a betrothal to the lord of Storm’s End. Harrenhal set up the entire conflict so nicely – Aerys’ craziness and jealousy of everyone around him; Rhaegar’s paragon status (in stark contrast to his father); Robert vs Rhaegar over the rose and Rhaegar vs Dorne for the slight to Elia; Tywin’s resignation at the induction of Jaime in the KG. For a year or years to go by without anything coming of Harrenhal is like time stood still for all combatants. There must be a reason for that delay. Was it the birth of Aegon and Elia’s subsequent weakness and inability to have more that needed to happen first? What are your thoughts?

[corbon]

Do you believe that Barristan was told by Ashara whom is she sleeping with? :thumbsdown:

Not in the slightest. Please give some thought before ascribing really inane things behind an argument. There are plenty of other ways he can have fairly reliable information.

Barristan was at Harennhal.

Barristan was in love with Ashara.

Barristan couldn't act on his love due to his vows. Only pine secretly.

Barristan's colleague was Ashara's brother, and hung out with her (the white sword she danced with). That gives Barristan an in, or more likely gives Ashara and her crowd high opportunity to be partying around where Barristan might be, and so has the opportunity to keep track of her doings.

Barristan appears to 'know' at least in his own mind, what happened. He could be wrong. If he is not, how could he 'know'?

It seems reasonable, assuming he really is right (if he is not then we aren't discussing this point) to guess that he paid close attention to Ashara's doings at Harrenhal. Not necessarily stalkerish close, but keeping an actual eye out, like the discrete bodyguard he effectively is.

So while he almost certainly didn't witness any sex, or even talk to Ashara about it, he probably was able to note who she danced with most, who she drank with, who she hung out with and who she was with at the end of the night, perhaps who she 'left the party with'.

Later she turns out preggers, and he 'knows' who the father was because he was watching her around the time. The assumes it was a relationship, even if temporary rather than a rape or random encounter.

He has motive, means and opportunity, at least as far as we can tell, to 'watch over' Ashara at Harrenhal, enough to 'know' in his own mind who she slept with (when it turns out she slept with someone) with a fair chance of being right.

[Brucolac]

Selmy probably did pay attention to her when his duties allowed him to be at public events she was attending, but he actually has less freedom to move around then the average person. Something that I find interesting is these two paragraphs:

The Red Keep had its secrets too. Even Rhaegar.The Prince of Dragonstone had never trusted him as he had trusted Arthur Dayne. Harrenhal was proof of that. The Year of the false spring.

The memory was still bitter. Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent's tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together....

Aerys' best tool for keeping track of Rhaegar's movements is by using the Kingsguard to report on him with the pretext of watching after him. Dayne couldn't be used and Jaime had just joined so they are down two men on the watch. Barristan would have spent time guarding Rhaegar for sure. If he found out about an affair that nobody else noticed, hence no rumors about anyone but Eddard and Ashara, this could have been the reason why. Rhaegar was visiting her while he was guarding him.

Rhaegar absconds with Lysanna after Harrenhal, so what is the proof of distrust he is talking about and what were Arthur Dayne and Rhaegar conspiring about there? Are Rhaegar and Dayne conspiring to set Rhaegar up with his sister, Ashara? They were trying to bring about the prophecy after all.

[Restless]

Not in the slightest. Please give some thought before ascribing really inane things behind an argument. There are plenty of other ways he can have fairly reliable information.

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He has motive, means and opportunity, at least as far as we can tell, to 'watch over' Ashara at Harrenhal, enough to 'know' in his own mind who she slept with (when it turns out she slept with someone) with a fair chance of being right.

All I say is that linking Brandon to Ashara is nothing else but wishful thinking and crackpot theory based on no evidence.

[corbon]

Barristan specifically states that she killed herself shortly after the birth of her stillborn daughter. Earlier in the story, we are told that Ashara threw herself from a tower shortly after Ned visited Starfall. So, we have a good idea of the period of time we are dealing with.

"Soon after", not 'shortly after'.

And that doesn't give us a good idea of the time. We just know that it is a period that a 60+ year old man who wasn't even present at one of the events conflates two events from nearly 20 years back as being relatively close - very vague, and not at all specific.

For example, a legendary NZ sportsperson Sir Richard Hadlee passed a major world record barrier (first person past 400 Test Wickets) in 1988 on his home ground in my home town. As far as I am concerned he retired 'soon after', but if I look it up it is actually mid 1990 that he played his last game and retired.

Barristan may have been at Harrenhal, but that does not give him any special insight into what was going on with Ashara in private. There is no evidence that he approached her at all during the time at Harrenhal, but he is given credit for "knowing" what occurred in her life.

Yes.

We do know he was there.

We saw in his mind he loved her, and thus had motive to be paying attention to what was happening with her while he was around.

We also saw in his mind that he thinks he 'knows' what happened with her.

We also know her 'job' was Handmaid to Elia, which puts her in his proximity in the Red Keep most of the time - that was how he had the opportunity to fall in love with her in the first place we assume.

He doesn't ever need to approach her. He has means, motive and opportunity to be paying close attention to her doings. We know he was 'around', we know he paid special attention to her, and we know he thinks he knows. That's a fairly good case, though definitely not open and shut. He could be wrong. Its certainly a lot better case than anyone else whose evidence we are looking at!

While we know that she returned to Starfall and spent some time there in close contact with her family, but their knowledge is discounted as being second or third hand information, when in all likelihood the Dayne's information came from Ashara. Please explain why the Dayne's continue to recount Ned and Ashara being in love 15-18 years after Ashara died and continue to pass that information onto family memebers that were very young at her death or not born for several year after her death.

How do we know she returned to Starfall and spent time there with her family? We have no information on her whereabouts between Harrenhal and post ToJ. Her 'job' was at KL.

In fact GRRM has specifically said she was not nailed down to Starfall through the war.

I disagree that the timing is vague.

Sorry, but 'soon after' is practically the definition of vague. It can mean anything depending on context and the viewer. A kid says 'soon after' and it probably means a very short time. A retiree says 'soon after' and it could be several years. Or 5 minutes. Someone says 'soon after' talking about geological progression and it could be 10 million years.

Harrenhal was a major event. Robert's Rebellion was a major event. He would have had a very clear frame of referrence when thinking back to this time period. The war started 1-2 years after Harrenhal. About a year after the start of the war, was the Battle of the Trident/the Fall of KL. Then Ned sets out to Storm's End, followed by the TOJ, and finally the trip to Starfall. Barristan would easily be able to relate something significant happening to her in relation to these two major events.

Possibly he could if he was trying to figure it out. But he wasn't, at all. He was musing on relationships, not timing details.

GRRM is good. His people think like real people, not some machine that spits out facts for the readers. Time compression for distantly past events is common. It is not a requirement, but that fact that it happens, is real and is common gives a solid reason why Barristan's otherwise reliable evidence about relationships might be slightly less reliable about timing.

I'm not saying it must be true.

I'm saying that this removes the 'timing doesn't fit perfectly' as a disqualifier. It can;t be a disqualifier because it makes reasonable sense for it to be slightly disconnected given the circumstances.

If Barristan was 20, thinking about last month, then we wouldn't accept this sort of timing disconnect. But he isn't, he's 60+ thinking about events nearly 20 years ago. Not getting the timing right when he isn't concentrating on it is probably more realistic than getting it right!

If you accept or believe that she did not commit suicide, then you also have to call into question the story of why she committed suicide.

I'm not sure I follow you.

If we say "fake suicide" then we have to say "fake suicide story"?

Umm, of course?

Sorry, just confused here.

Those who support the B+A theory often point out that all we have is rumors about N+A and all of those are unreliable. We have the men who return from the war, who fought and traveled with Ned, except to the TOJ and Starfall.

Right. Basically Winterfell men, more or less. Who know Ned went to Starfall, came back with Jon and a wetnurse, and hear that the beautiful Ashara Dayne committed suicide after Ned's visit.

Some may even remember, or later connect, rumours about Ashara from Harrenhal. How she had an affair with a Stark, or something similar.

When the gossip mill starts, the back gossip gets raked up too.

The point is that these rumours start after the war, but even as they start may include older rumours from Harrenhal. After all, Ned returning with Jon and Ashara jumping into the sea are perfect subjects for speculating on those old rumours about Harrenhal that were never very clear... "Hah, now we (old winterfel soldier) 'know' what happened at Harrenhal after all. It all makes sense."

Note that this line of speculation and rumouring follows exactly the same regardless of what actually happened at Harrenhal as long as no one really knew everything that happened.

We have the story the Reed's tell who show us their meeting at Harrenhal.

Which tells us nothing about N+A relationship.

It tells us Ned was shy, though does not say if it means generally shy or specifically-to-Ashara shy.

It tells us Brandon and Ned both had contact with Ashara.

It tells us she danced with Ned at Brandon's request - which could be the start of a romance (N+A) or could just as easily be B+A with Brandon asking Ashara to help out his shy little brother. We don't know.

We have Danyes perpetuating a "rumor" that Ashara was in love with Ned to people who knew neither of them and 10-20 years after Ashara "died."

Little important detail there.

We have a Dayne, who was probably too young to be involved, or even be Ashara's confidante (read up the rest of the thread if you don't know about this), telling another Dayne who was definitely not even born at the time.

We aren't seeing a Dayne official family story here, we are just seeing one second hand account becoming a third hand account.

It might be the Dayne official history. It might be truth. But we don't know that and we don't have any evidence that Allyria knows more than anyone else in Westeros about what really happened.

And, we have the section quoted in post #40 that describes a "rumor" of Ned and Ashara from the perspective of Harwin. Harwin's "rumor" also deals with the same period as Barristan recounts and the story the Reed's tell.

Harwins rumour, incidentally, would probably be yhe same rumour from Winterfell men you reference above, and the same rumour that Cat hears and inquires about to Ned. Its all coming from winterfell at the same time - logically it is one rumour, not three separate rumours.

And Harwin is very much being speculative and doesn't even believe it himself!

He says it is an old tale, but doesn't actually say what it was. He then clarifies the legal situation when Ned met first met Ashara at Harrenhal - which we know to be true and many Winterfell men would have known at and after Harrenhal, especially if there were any Stark-Ashara rumours at the time. He then speculates on what could have happened if the rumours were true. That is not even part of the original rumour!

These "rumors" all deal with different periods. Harwin and the Reed's deal with their meeting at Harrenhal. Barristan's thought may also deal with this. The Dayne's information is centered around a period of time rather than an isolated incident. The "rumors" that Cat hears from the men returning from the war, are related to what the men saw during the war. Only six men traveled with Ned to the TOJ and 5 did not live to return to Winterfell, so the information from his men is only related to something they saw during the war. They had nothing else to base their assumptions on.

Umm, hello?

Jon Snow? From Starfall? Where the young noblewoman suicided after Lord Ned came away with a baby?

They don't need to see anything during the war, or after the war. All the evidence to start a rumour is right there in front of them, especially if there was something vague going on with the Dayne girl and the young Starks at Harrenhal a couple of years back...

You have argued that they added 2+2 to get 5 because he was returned from Starfall with Jon. The problem with this is that he has admitted that Wylla was Jon's mother. Why would his men not accept Ned's story? Wouldn't it be more reasonable for them to believe something they saw with their own eyes as opposed to making up a story contrary to what the Lord had acknowledged?

No, Ned has not admitted Wylla was the mother (that we know of). That was just dunderhead Robert making assumptions and Ned letting him believe them. Robert's just happy that Ned isn't as annoyingly perfect/boring as he always seemed and has no care beyond that (assuming it doesn't impact on Lyanna/Rhaegar of course).

It is clear that winterfell rumours had Ashara as Jon's mother as that was what Catelyn picked up from them.

Its very straitforward. Ned brings back Jon and says nothing other than this boy is my blood and will be raised in my household. Nothing at all about the mother. Winterfell gossip turns Ashara into the mother for obvious reasons - just come from starfall with baby Jon, Ashara suicided, possible connections between the young Starks and Ashara from a couple of years back at Harrenhal. Back in KL Robert is blythely ignorant and just assumes Wylla as mum as she was the one nursing Jon when Ned passed through on the way back to winterfell.

There is nothing inconsistent here, regardless of what the real Stark+Ashara story was.

[corbon]

Also, you can not infer that she chose Stark at Harrenhall from the paragraph.

You not only can, you must unless you infer another occasion that isn't referenced.

Barristan mused he maybe she would have looked to him instead of Stark.

That means, whenever she looked to Stark, Barristan must have been a viable choice to look to instead. Therefore Barristan and Stark must have both been available for her to look to.

The only place we know they are together is at the tourney in Harrenhal. Which also follows the general train of thought.

It is possible to separate the 'looked to Stark' from Harrenhal, but only by postulating an unknown location and time where Ashara looked to someone and both Stark and Barristan were there to be looked to.

This is possible, but it is far more logical to go with what we actually know about - which sees Ashara Dayne, Starks and Barristan all in the same place and time at Harrnehal.

Many counter this reasoning with Robert's statements that Ned was never the boy to forget his honor, but they ignore the last part of this statement where he says: "except that one time."

Its not ignored. Robert is wrong but it suits Ned to let him believe it.

Robert believes the evidence of Jon's existence that it was 'except that one time'. That is just fine for Ned!

The cover story for that one time is Wylla (the common wench, or however Robert refers to her). Isn't it odd that this woman that Robert only knows as the woman who made Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor was a wet nurse to House Dayne.

Not odd at all.

Wylla is nursing Jon when Ned returns to Winterfell. After ToJ-Starfall. Ned almost certainly called in on Robert on the way home and Robert happily jumped to conclusions when Ned is taking a bastard home. After all, it's the way Robert operates (humping whoever he can), with a bit of extra honour thrown in (looking after the babe and mother) to Ned-flavour it and it relieves Robert of that Ned -is-so-damned-perfectly-honourable-it-is-embarrassing problem he has.

Ned has just been to Starfall, so it makes sense to Robert that he went there to pick up his byblow.

For us it makes sense that Wylla is from Starfall because she was probably chosen as wetnurse for Lyanna by Arthur Dayne, in charge at ToJ after Rhaegar leaves and handily a Dayne with Starfall the nearest location. Not that Robert knows about that, nor would care about where Wylla has been or will be ever again.

Ned does admit to Robert that he did dishonor his wife during the war and names Wylla, a wet nurse in House Dayne, as the woman he had relations with.

Ned doesn't say what the dishonour was, nor when.

In Ned's mind he is speaking of what he has to put his wife through, dishonouring her by bringing his bastard into her household, and himself by letting everyone believe Jon is his. But he knows Robert will understand it differently.

Ned also does not name Wylla as a woman he had relations with. Read it carefully. He names Wylla as 'that other woman' whose name Robert is trying to remember and Robert says Wylla is Jon's mother, not Ned. It is a subtle piece of lying without lying, but it is right there for you to read if you are a bit sharper than Robert.

Now, when in the conversation where Ned scares Cat, the discussion starts relating to Jon's mother, but Cat brings up Ashara and Ned becomes very angry. More angry than he has ever been. Cat admits that she is truly scared during this discussion. They had discussed Jon's mother before without this kind of reaction, but the difference is the inclusion of Ashara in the discussion.

Go back and read it again. Ned was icily angry from the instant Catelyn mentioned Jon's mother and used that term himself. Ashara Dayne was entirely secondary and he never uttered the name himself.

And I believe you are completely wrong that they had ever discussed the matter before. You will need to provide a citation that they had ever talked about it before, and in fact I think if you check the part shortly before the usual angry, icy Ned quote you'll find that it was explicitly the first and only time Catelyn ever bought up the subject of Jon's mother.

[corbon]

All I say is that linking Brandon to Ashara is nothing else but wishful thinking and crackpot theory based on no evidence.

Thank you for your insightful argument.

[Kadence]

How is it absurd when we know that some people close to Ashara died in the war?

This was a war, not an asteroid strike :) Some minority of the young men might be dead, but almost none of the noblewomen, handmaidens and servants, and very few of the older men.

To say that Allyria wouldn't have sources from people who knew Ashara is indeed pretty absurd. People seem to be going to some seriously wacky logical leaps to justify B+A (which I say even though I lean towards B+A), mainly because B+A requires far more inexplicable character behaviors and major leaps of logic than N+A does.

It is so perplexing that people would think Allyria didn't have access to good sources despite being from Ashara's own family. Which itself would be odd but fine - yet these these same people treat Barristan Selmy as the superior source? That's strains all credibility. Barristan wasn't close to these people. As I said earlier - if this was some personal secret to Ashara that no one knew about and even people in her family were clueless, Barristan would be the last guy to have special info. Most likely he was just making assumptions. Any info Barristan would have would come solely by "he was there" merits, merits that tons of other people from Harrenhal and King's Landing would have. And considering that one of the Queen's handmaidens getting pregnant would be amongst the juiciest of gossip imaginable this is hardly info that would be contained. Barristan would not have access to reliable info at all when compared to others.

One could speculate quite reasonably that Barristan's source of information was simply seeing Brandon dance with Ashara at Harrenhal, or something of that nature, and making assumptions. He might be making the same leap of logic many here are - "Oh, Ned was 'mud', so obviously chose Brandon" because Brandon is apparently some sort of player. Which is odd anyway because to a Dayne Ned is a massive catch and I think Brandon was already betrothed. People need to be honest, Barristan is not a remotely reliable source of info on anything regarding Ashara that was apparently a close secret. Certainly not compared to Allyria. Allyria's reliability is questionable but Barristan's is easily more questionable.

Mythology? He doesn't make Ned a massive heel, you mean, who caused a woman he supposedly loved so much grief that she killed herself

Ned/Ashara/Arthur was brilliant. Perhaps the most masterful work Martin ever did. With such a densely packed amount of content he created quite the memorable arc. Ashara and Arthur were two of the most popular characters despite getting barely like two parapraphs of text between them. There's a reason why readers loved this arc so much. Also Ned is obviously no heel, that's why it's so tragic - it was forces beyond their control.

and never even thought about her 14 years later?

What Martin's characters didn't think about is never of much relevance. So many of his POV characters hold massive secrets close to the vest. As has been covered endlessly in this topic, this holds for Ned above all others. For all we know he fantasized of Ashara every time he had sex.

And, as I said before, I really hope that we see the Lady Allyria in the flesh, since I suspect that she is the "stillborn" daughter of Ashara Dayne.

Doubtful, women with newborns don't tend to commit suicide. They're more likely to kill the baby than themselves. Also I'm split on whether Lemore=Ashara is true or not, but that would rule this out pretty much - she isn't going to abandon her kid and run off. IMO this is just pure fan speculation without any textual or logical basis.

The same double-standard exists (minus the apparently egalitarian permissiveness) in the rest of the Seven Kingdoms, really. Almost all of the bastards we've met and heard of have been the children of pedigreed men and whores, peasant girls, tavern wenches, etc., and their existence is regarded as something of a matter of course.

Women will always know for sure whether a child is theirs, whereas men cannot ever have been sure until recently. Birth control changed the social dynamics by allowing women to control which lover could be the father, and even more importantly to avoid all children.

[MtnLion]

There is a significant thing to think of, Corbon. The year of the false spring must have preceeded at least one year of winter. GRRM, according to other sources in this thread, indicates a period of one to two years between the start of the war and Harrenhal. If Ashara had a child as the result of carelessness at Harrenhal, it was born before the war. The war lasted about one year, so the child would be near two years old. How would the rumor mongers figure Jon's age?

While Barristan's memory may compress the fact that not long after the stillbirth she threw herself from the tower. (Yeah, somewhere near two years after.) He still has looking to Stark after the birth. He is not connecting Stark at Harrenhal.

We keep ignoring Oberyn. Why do we ignore the most flamboyant personality that had contact with Ashara at Harrenhal? He has a tendency to have daughters, as well as hit on the noble-women. Oh, the stillbirth Barristan reports is a daughter ...

[Kadence]

They know nothing of the sort. The only ones who seem to "know" about Wylla are Robert, because Ned told him, and the Daynes, because they were somehow involved in Jon cover-up.

This notion that the Daynes are involved with a Wylla-Jon cover-up yet telling people Ned loved Ashara does not make any sense. These same people are spreading Ned+Wylla - why would they spread Ned+Ashara? What kind of madly counter-productive thing would this be if they were supporting a cover-up? The most important element to get people to buy into a story is consistency. This notion that the honorable Ned Stark loved Ashara Dayne but screwed around with her handmaiden is pretty far-fetched - he wasn't Robert. If these people were trying to spread disinformation the *last* thing they'd do is try to spread conflicting stories. They'd just stick to the Ned+Wylla story, which Ned himself sticks with when pushed. They wouldn't add in a false story of Ned+Ashara if they didn't believe it. And it should be clear he himself definitely didn't stupidly instruct them to push a contradictory Ned+Ashara story since he blows up when Cat mentions the idea.

First post ever. This remark by Tywin jumped out at me in the book. Is it possible that Ned was betrothed to Ashara, but due to his brother's death, he HAD to marry Catelyn out of duty? Is it possible that this was the way that he "dishonoured" her? When Robb did this... well, we know how that turned out, but Ned was from a much larger, more prestigious house than Ashara. Just throwing this out there because there are so many ways to read things into this relationship!

People make far too much of this statement. I'm confident it just means that Ned and Robb were both honorable. Romance wise Tywin thought Ned fathered a bastard and didn't marry the mother which is basically the opposite of what Robb did. But, if it meant anything specific in a romantic regard, the only thing that would make sense is if Tywin thought Ned and Ashara had sex and Ned tried to marry Ashara but Rickard rejected it (Robb unlike Ned had no liege to answer to). I doubt this Rickard rejection theory though - even though it would seem to fit what little we know of Rickard it has very little textual basis. Which means Tywin's thought means nothing of specifically romantic relevance and people shouldn't mention it as evidence of anything.

The implication is that a "man" dishonored her at Harrenhal, placing the birth at nine months later.

It's possible that the dishonor was taking her maidenhood, but the affair continued and the pregnancy was later. Though I don't know what to think of that. On first read I assumed Harrenhal was the conception date, but we know very little about any of this stuff really which is why there is such a debate. And whenever it comes to dates and Martin I'm pretty dubious that he has them all that specific in his own head. I think to Martin dates are vague, malleable and fudgeable - more a nuisance than anything.

I would certainly point out that Oberyn is a better candidate for being fiery than Brandon. Oberyn has certainly not had a history for marrying his consorts, highborn or not.

Oberyn was not dead or married, so there would be no reason for her to grieve for him. Don't think it could have been Oberyn because it doesn't fit with that element of Barristan's thought.

I think if "unnamed" is eliminated as the possible father of this supposed stillborn daughter/man who dishonored her (assuming they are the same), the main options are Brandon and Ned, with Rhaeghar more of a looney theory and I'd mention Connington in the looney theory as well, though I haven't seen anybody mention him yet. He's gay but that doesn't rule him out, also he danced with her at Harrenhal (one of the main reasons I think Lemore=Ashara has a decent shot at actually being true - would be just the sort of touch Martin adds to connect things) and if she's Lemore she's hanging out with him right now. I'd be shocked if Connington is true but I'd be shocked if it was Rhaeghar too, they seem similarly far-fetched. Though Rhaeghar is the only one of the four that would fit Barristan being any sort of reliable witness at all. Even then he might not be all that reliable because Rhaeghar probably didn't trust Barristan enough and would likely have Arthur guard him if he was having an affair with Ashara.

Lady Barbrey does not behave as though the story that she is telling is true.

I didn't see any red flags that indicated to me she was lying. To me it seemed like a entirely face-value explanation for why she hated Starks.

[MtnLion]

It doesn't say that Brandon broke it off immediately after learning of his betrothal to Catelyn. Only that he did break it off at some point. But he was betrothed for years, and there's nothing in this quote that suggests they did not continue their affair during this time. At best, we can probably assume that it was broken off at some point before she was married to Lord Dustin, which apparently occurred around a half a year before the war began.

There is nothing to suggest that it was not the same day that she learned of the betrothal, either is there? The point is that making a lot of assumptions you can turn a vague bit of text into whatever is desired. To say that Brandon and Eddard dishonored anyone is a stretch.

[Kadence]

He still has looking to Stark after the birth. He is not connecting Stark at Harrenhal.

I don't believe he connects Stark directly to Harrenhal, but it doesn't say anything about looking to Stark after the birth. No timeline indication for when she "looked to" Stark is given.

We keep ignoring Oberyn. Why do we ignore the most flamboyant personality that had contact with Ashara at Harrenhal? He has a tendency to have daughters, as well as hit on the noble-women. Oh, the stillbirth Barristan reports is a daughter ...

Nothing to grieve for regarding Oberyn. Quite doubtful therefore that he was the man who dishonored her, and obviously he's not Stark either :) And he's only an option if Stark and the dishonor man are different, and I really don't think they are, although it's possible.

Edit:

There is nothing to suggest that it was not the same day that she learned of the betrothal, either is there? The point is that making a lot of assumptions you can turn a vague bit of text into whatever is desired. To say that Brandon and Eddard dishonored anyone is a stretch.

The way I originally read it was that the day he told her of the betrothal was their last night together, but no date info was given. It's also quite possible that the last night they spent together was just before he went to Riverrun which would I believe be years after the betrothal.