Jump to content

corbon

Members
  • Content count

    4,267
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About corbon

  • Rank
    Council Member

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male

Recent Profile Visitors

3,967 profile views
  1. corbon

    The Others: Why Now?

    John telling Qhorin about his wolf dream: Later, talking about the same dream. Ygitte uses "we" not "he". Jon telling Aemon about it later. What we get from this is that the Wildlings were already gathered at the Milkwater, in their thousands (many clans) with Giants and Mammoths, when they were digging there. And Jon's understanding of the situation from Ygritte, and clearly others, is that they (collectively) believed finding the Horn would help them and they (collectively) were digging for it. I don't see how you can read from this that Mance made all the diggings first, then collected the Wildlings there. Note also that the Shades of the dead being bound to their graves and possibly released if they are disturbed has clear parallels to the Northern (Stark's) custom of laying Iron swords across the Lord's laps in the crypts to keep their vengeful spirits (shades) from being released. Its this Ygritte is concerned about.
  2. corbon

    R+L=J v.165

    I don't think its a detailed description, but I also don't think we should assume its not generally accurate and there is a bunch of important other stuff not included within that summary. Nor that its is a "ludicrous" summary. And I'll change that, if we get more evidence (I doubt we will, either way). And yes, as you say, each to his own.
  3. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    No. YG is the mystery. Lemore doesn't seem important to Tyrion, he's quite clear about that. He explicitly states that she has secrets but he's not interested. Yeah, that often happens. Its about how much fun you get on the journey, and every now'n again you learn something new. Its not what she has done, its what she gives away. If people knew Ashara Dayne had gone into exile, they'd wonder why, ask questions, think about who she is connected to. Dead, she's just the not-so-interesting sister of the legendary Ser Arthur. Alive and in voluntary exile? Ser Arthur's sister? Elia's former handmaid? With a mysterious child? HMMMM... JonCon is hiding too, for similar reasons, though IMO less pressing. And he didn;t even enter into (know about!) 'the conspiracy' for several years after it began. Actually, so do I, though I don't rule out the Pisswater Prince, or Illyrio's son (or possibly the both together). I don't think there's anything big to the Blackfyre stuff though. I think thats just interesting backstory for the Targaryens, that really grew out more of the Dunk and Egg books than ASoIaF. And I'm quite accepting I might be wrong on this too. I suspect (f)Aegon is part of Dany's journey, either as her first major foil in Westeros or as an eventual ally, possibly even Consort. those two and Jon are the most likely three heads of the Dragon to me, though a lot of evidence points to Tyrion as a possibility. I suspect she was the key to supporting those at ToJ. I don't think she was there.
  4. No, not "already mustered armies", but the first, quickly gathered forces largely consisting of the household troops of various nobles. Probably in the high hundreds or low thousands at the most. I think its more productive to try an understand a way that makes sense with GRRMs plotting, than just decide he's screwed it up terribly. The Rebels (Robert) can't hurry then (and look what Robert's hurry already got him). The forces at hand for the rebels are just too small. They don't have the strength to take KL, and they don't have the logistics secured to move large bodies of troops anyway. They still have to deal with the internal loyalists to secure logistics, and wait for their musters to arrive before they have the numbers No, we can't assume that. We've seen in the current war that the Reach has vastly more "knights" and the like than other areas. Its also a better area for mustering and logistics. I would suggest that Robert's forces were still not fully mustered, but he aggressively went with what he had once he learned of the Tyrell advance. The Tyrell forces could well easily outnumber Roberts without being fully mustered, even just their van. They don't have the issue of Lords choosing between High Lord and King, or even just being deliberately slow to muster as they see how things pan out, so they can raise a higher percentage of their greater forces faster. I don't think your analysis is sound here. I prefer to match the analysis to what did happen, not what I think should have happened. Not only do the rebels need to secure their rear/logistics from the many loyalists we are told there were scattered throughout their lands, and bring their full musters up, which they clearly couldn't have done so for the first phase of the war, but even then, it still wasn;t them that moved next, it was Rhaegar. Clearly the Rebels didn't have the forces to take KL, or they would have tried - doing so ends the war after all - and they didn't try. Apparently raiding the crownlands wasn't a good option. I rather think the threat of a Westlands army in their rear as they tried, might have been a significant part of that. I think they underestimated the effect the Battle of the Bells had, and were uncertain of Westlands, Ironborn and Dornish intentions, and were stuck without a good strategic option. We saw Robb in a similar circumstance, except he outwitted Tywin and struck west, laying a trap (trying to). But then, his main enemy was the Lannisters. Ned and Robert's was the Targaryen's in KL, with the Lannisters not yet declared. I agree that GRRM has played fast and loose with the pacing and chronology in a few places - thats why he's warned us not to pay too close attention to this stuff. But I also think that there are ways of understanding that its not quite so bad as you make out. I also think that its very clear that Jon and Robb were born relatively close together, not multiple months apart, within the narrative, and fiddling with the story areas GRRM has admitted are weak in order to prove differently is not a wise route.
  5. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    Given what we've been told of their interest in going home and getting rewards in westeros, the fact that they did break a contract, and the fact that they are publicly following a Targaryen banner right now, it would seem that the right promises from a Targaryen would also do the trick. These are not the original, they are their descendants. returning to rewards in westeros holds a great deal more allure than a lost Blackfyre name.
  6. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    Sure. Of course she's not naked all the time. But the first time we meet her, we are in Tyrion's head. Its not the first time he's met her, as he's spent the night masturbating over her, so clearly she's been swimming naked in front of him at least once before. And his whole conversation and thought process over at that first meeting her is leching. Its not that he's never seen her eyes, its that GRRM, in her introductory scene, gives himself a perfect excuse why Tyrion doesn't tell us about her eyes as we are introduced to this character. I think exposing the stretch marks is also a reason she was naked. I don't think the stretch marks are significant to her as something to hide - most women beyond a certain age have them. They are only significant to us because we know she is significant first, and they add to the sum of our knowledge. She's a missing westerosi noblewomen, with brown hair, high level of attractiveness, in her late thirties or early forties, who has borne a child but doesn't mention or seem connected to any children other than one who is clearly not her own child (at least neither officially, nor in the way her and Aegon relate to each other), and is specifically and highly involved with a plot to put Rhaegar's son on the Iron throne. I think that you, like many people here, miss the point that purple eyes usually don't actually look purple. Unless you are looking for it, or people dress with colours or makeup to accentuate it, most purple eyes don't look terribly purple. Elizabeth Taylor is the absolute poster girl for purple eyes in our world. If you look at any picture of her without accentuating makeup or accessories, and without knowing that it was Elizabeth Taylor you were looking at, you wouldn't call her eyes purple, you'd call them blue or blue-gray, depending on the light. Heck, of the first thirty or so google images of "Elizabeth Taylor eyes", nearly all of the ones that look 'real' (as opposed to soft focus photo-shoot specials) look like a blue-grey mix to me. Only a few look purple if you look really closely and are looking for it. Targaryens get the purple eyes thing easily because they are famous for it and the hair also helps give it away. Ashara, would have it from dress/accessories and makeup deliberately accentuating the purple-ness. Lemore is the opposite of all that. I can easily see Lemore having purple eyes that pretty much just look blue most of the time. So I can see Tyrion, who isn't pay close attention to her eyes, not really noticing or zeroing in on her 'purple' eyes. Especially since he doesn;t really care about her and thinks (correctly) he's figured out the big reveal with Aegon. And why would he think of Ashara as a conspirator anyway. To him, assuming he knows the name, she was a minor female courtier at another court that was sent away in disgrace long before critical events. Its only when you put together her brother's close relationship with Rhaegar, her own relationship with Elia (likely much less well known), the timing of her 'suicide' (and know that its not because she lost Ned/Jon, which is what most suspect), that you realise what a perfect conspirator she fits to be, as Lemore. Whatever you think about stupid, its clear that GRRM hasn't chosen to reveal who she is, but that she is someone important. I think he's keeping her hidden as Ashara precisely because Ashara is much more important, just we don;t know it yet. We have the clues though, even though she's been mentioned so few times. I also wonder if a meeting of Ashara/Lemore and Barristan Selmy, Lord Commander of the Queensguard, might not have significant ramifications...
  7. corbon

    The Others: Why Now?

    No, the wildlings opened the graves at the Milkwater well after they had already congregated together under Mance. There is no indication that Mance fiddled with those graves before that.
  8. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    It is also possible that Illyrio and Varys have fooled the other conspirators right from the start. Just because they believe (f)Aegon to be Aegon, doesn't mean he is. Well, Ellia would know, but she's not a reasonable option for Lemore. Elia's death was brutal and public and there were surely lots of witnesses that saw her body. Also, Elia's health issues practically rule her out from being the robust Lemore.
  9. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    Thats certainly one possibility. We get even unremarkable eye colours usually though. Lemore is a rarity, for a relatively significant character, of not getting an eye description. I think that in itself is significant. I also think thats one of the reasons GRRM had her swimming naked and Tyrion leching so hard. So do I. But it is quite plausible that he be a fake. I believe so, yes. The Septa's robes are noted as marking her as westerosi, and she's not just wearing the robes, but teaching (f)Aegon the faith and actually seems to follow it herself (calling on the Seven as an instinctive response to the wailing of the stone men). Although the religion of the Seven originated in Essos, it seems to have migrated with the Andals and doesn't seem to be practiced by Essosi any more. She is also clearly high in the conspiracy, able to argue with Jon Connington about their plans, and apparently pre-dating his entry into their ranks. I can't see Jon accepting a non-Westerosi noble woman as ranking with him (I think she ranks above him myself, but I'm not sure he realises or accepts this) in the quest to put Rhaegar's son on the Iron throne.
  10. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    Haha, true. I'm happy to go out and support one theory over another, generally. But think its foolish to discount other theories just because you favour one. But I'll play this game with you. It is fun after all, and I'm brain-burnt after getting a tender off. Ashara is 'known' to have leapt from the Palestone Tower into the Sea. But no body was ever found, nor has anyone been claimed to have been an eye-witness. And in (f)Aegon she has a very good reason to go into hiding. Her 'fake death' would also parallel both Griff (supposedly drunk himself to death in exile) and Young Griff (head dashed against a wall by the Mountain. And the timing would approximately suit when a ship carrying baby (f)Aegon could come from Kings Landing. Ashara would be in her late thirties, which makes her the right age for Tyrion's guess of "past 40". Especially considering Tyrion has past history of poor age guessing, the attractiveness of Lemore, and the difference between the lived of Septa Lemore and the noblewomen Tyrion is used to of that age. Mellario is known to be in another specific part of Essos - where she came from. Which is relevant how? Quentyn is clearly nothing to do with any baby swap. The one time GRRM played such a word game it was even simpler and far more obvious - Sarella-Alleras. Playing silly and incomplete letter games doesn't make any relevant argument. Which isn't really relevant, since there is no doubt who Quentyn is and Mellario didn't lose him for a number of years after that. OTOH Ashara supposed lost a child who would be a similar age to (f)Aegon, slightly younger, and much closer to the time she would have taken on the role of (f)Aegon's carer. Given that her other children hold very very different physical traits, no, thats not a reasonable argument. In fact the appearance of her three children, generally short, thicker bodied, olive skinned and dark haired, shoot that one down in flames entirely. Ashara OTOH would be accepting a child with known Targaryen traits, possibly the real deal or a child expressly chosen for his physical similarity. Making things up that we don't have evidence of does not constitute evidence in favour of a theory. Shaving head and wig-wearing does not infer concealed Valyrian traits - especially not when such are universally favoured for attractiveness and connection to a 'superior' past. Even by schismatics. It isn't odd at all. Quentyn was intended to be his heir as Arriane was intended for Viserys. Once Viserys was off the table, Doran reversed places and Quentyn was aimed at Dany with Arriance available as heir instead. No, he sent Quentyn to try to marry Dany. And previous to that he had a deal to marry Arriane to Viserys. He's only exploring the (f)Aegon ship now that (f)Aegon has revealed himself, which strong suggests, given his previous efforts, that he didn't know about (f)Aegon at all. Which in turn argues that Lemore is not Mellario rather strongly. No, a child of Mellario would be a Martell-Norvosi mix. And all three of them look almost the opposite of the Targaryen stereotype. 1) Ashara is almost exactly the right age for Lemore, especially once you note that Tyrion's estimate is just that, a guess, and he's not got good context or record for that guess, which is a famously difficult one. 2) Lemore's apparent attractiveness, despite her age and position, fit well with Ashara. Her hair fits within the descriptions given - brown vs dark brown and her golden skin fits with hot Dorne rather than cold Norvosi. 3) the eye thing - its odd that Lemore is almost the only character with no eye description (and GRRM writes in a reason by having Tyrion perving when he is describing her) 4) Ashara supposedly lost a child (or gave it up to her family to be raised as a not-bastard sister, Allyria) around about the time Aegon needed a carer. 5) Lemore swims frequently, unusually. Ashara grew up beside the sea and supposedly committed suicide by diving into the sea (but no body and no witnesses). 6) the Lady references and the fact that Lemore can argue with Griff as an equal conspirator. 7) Ashara, companion of Ellia and sister of Rhaegars closest friend and companion Arthur, recently having lost her own child (to death or family) is singularly the most appropriate person both to take Aegon into exile and to vouch for him on return.
  11. Petyr was 15, and was sent back to his own (father's) lands and keep on the Fingers. He didn't come under Jon Arryn's 'notice' until much later when Lisa convinced John to give Petyr Control of Customs at Gulltown. Not likely that would have be given to a 15 year old nobody out in the Fingers, so it was likely at least 3-5 years later. Hoster had no reason to warn Jon about Petyr back then.
  12. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    How so? Many people argued that the Golden Company would never fight for a Targaryen, only a Blackfyre, But the fact remains, as Illyrio said, a dragon is a dragon. Aegon has declared as a Targeryen, not a Blackfyre, and the Golden company fights for him under that banner, in order to get home, and win rewards. I can't see anything Illyrio tells Tyrion that has any particularly strong bearing on Aegon's true ancestry. Because she believed he was. Varys could have fooled her. She wouldn't have actually spent that much time around baby Aegon, having had to leave court for her own pregnancy. Agreed. IMO it is foolishness to hold too tightly to any particular theory about the truth of (f)Aegon as yet, because basically pretty much all options are open and fairly reasonable. each of us may favour one over another, but IMO anyone who is totally convinced one way or another has just chosen belief over reason. One of those comparisons is from someone who never met her, ie from reports by others. But yes, in her youth, near 20 years ago, as a young noble maiden at court, Ashara was beautiful and people's memories of her, formed at her most memorable times, were of a haunting quality to her eyes. OTOH, that was many years ago and Septa Lemore has lead a very different and much harder life since. Time and life change people. The most beautiful eyes I ever saw were of a girl a friend of mine worked with in a bookshop. We dropped in to see her on the way to something else and it was the day of her 21st. Her eyes were magnificent, bright green, shining with excitement as she told us about her party plans. I passed through the bookshop a few weeks later and saw her stacking books. Her eyes were nice, but nothing special. Ashara's 'rep' comes from a time of wonder and excitement in her life. Lemore is at a completely different time, place and situation. If Lemore is Ashara it is not at all remarkable that Lemore's eye's do not get the same rap as Ashara's did. Hmm, funny that, isn't it. The one person who's eye colour would be a dead give away to a certain identity is the one person whom Tyrion fails to mention the eye-colour of... And GRRM gives him an excuse too - her eyes are not what he is looking at when he does describe her. And you have one thing wrong. Tyrion is not trying to figure out who she is. He explicitly recognises that she has her secrets and that he doesn't want to know her. Basically, he's only interested in one thing from her and is quite explicit about it, at least to himself (us). Note that Lemore as 'more handsome than pretty' (which is how attractive older women, and she is 'older' at 40-ish, have traditionally been described) who still clearly has a natural attraction for men (not just Tyrion). This fits very well with a 15-20-years-later Ashara who has lived a non-noble life through that time. Note that Ashara is not described as 'pretty', but as "fair" and 'haunting". It seems her attractiveness was mostly based on other qualities than simple 'prettiness'. This might be the wrong generational example, but I think of the Hepburns, Audrey and Katherine as a perfect example of this. Audrey is incredibly 'pretty'. The older Katherine was a very handsome woman (and the younger Katherine very beautiful). I see Ashara as having a more Katherine look - beautiful, yes, but a different kind of beauty than prettiness, which in time becomes handsomeness (or did, in the way that language was used before the last decade or two. Well, I've heard this reasoning before, and for me I find it flawed, and I've tried to show why. However, thats ok. We can think differently. I believe I understand your reasoning, but think it is flawed. You no doubt can say the same. Thats ok. One of us will be wrong, which is no great deal in the scheme of things. In the mean time, its a nice breaker from tender prep madness to discuss it, thanks.
  13. corbon

    Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

    Well, thats much more reasonable. Its just not what you were saying before. I don't think anyone has argued against that, just against the statements you made when perhaps trying to express that.
  14. they do by default. Cat knows Robb was concieved before Ned left her and went further south to continue the war. She also believes Ned fathered Jon after that time, dishonouring her by sleeping with some woman, possibly Ashara Dayne, after he left her. Thats also what Ned presents to the world - that he dishonoured Cat in the sight of gods and men by fathering Jon. And what Robert and Cersei and pretty much everyone believes except the Fisgherman's daughter rumour which is only found in an area where everyone involved hasn't been since before Jon or Robb were born. They don't make it explicit than Jon is younger, because its just a normal fact of life for them, but they must accept that Robb is older as a unthought default for their other thoughts and actions to be possible. This matters to the timeline we are discussing because Jon's birth can be reasonably narrowly defined as within a month or so after the end of the war (you seem to think before, judging be your comments below), call it month 13, give or take. Both by the comparison with Dany's birth and by Lyanna's death as a result of Jon's birth (still lying in her "bloody bed"= birthing bed, though it may have been a week or two after the actual birth due to Puerperal Fever) and Lyanna lived long enough after the Rebellion ended for Ned to go to Storms End and end that siege then find her at ToJ in the Princes Pass. That enables us to define Robb's conception as around the 4 month mark give or take a month or so, because he's clearly assumed by those who could tell as being older than Jon, which means he can't be too far behind Jon in age as they were together at 3 months old when relatively small disparities are quite obvious. The author is using a narrow part around the end of RR, when a bunch of things happen quite quickly, to give a comparison of two people born or conceived relevantly around those events. Its rough, but easily tied by him to specific important events. You are trying to tie down exactly the stuff he said not to tie down by exactly the method he said not to. I'm tying it down by the method he uses - roughly, tying only standard 9 month pregnancies around specifically relevant events. The purpose of the thread is whose nameday falls first. This conversation has devolved around a workable timeline for RR, which is in fact directly impacted by the rough ages of Jon and Robb since both of them can have their birth or conception tied closely to after/before certain events. Robb can only be conceived after the Battle of the Bells and Jon can only be born after the war ends - though not too much after since he's 8-9 months older than Dany who was conceived before the war ended. Jon and Robb's relative ages therefore become relative to the war. They seem to be very close in age, which gives us a rough time period for the Battle of the Bells. I'm presenting you with what works for and in the story. You're objecting on the grounds that doing exactly what GRRM cautioned against, makes nothing work. Go figure. Your complaint seems to be that the timeline for RR is flawed. The answer is, yes, GRRM underestimated the timing of events at the start but its fixed now and can't be changed. So in that respect, yes, the timeline for RR is flawed.
  15. Here's the thing. GRRM doesn't do this and has warned people against doing it, precisely because he doesn't and may have made mistakes as he changes the story. It is necessary for the story that Jon be no more than a month or two older than Robb, because its not believable for Robb to be treated older if he is 3 months old living beside a 6 month or more old Jon. Babies have lots of relatively consistent milestones during that first year and if Jon was several months or more older it would be extremely obvious. Remember, Catelyn was apart from Ned a year so Robb was three months old (give or take a month or so for imprecise language of "a year" when Catelyn brought him to Winterfell and found Jon already there with Ned. Jon's birth is placed at a month or so after the end of the war by being 8-9 months older than Dany, who was conceived just before the end of the war (Rhaella didn't know she was pregnant when she evacuated to Dragonstone, plus she was hiding bruises on her face likely from Aerys' rape the night before after the burning of Chelsted, after the Battle of the Trident). Robb's conception is therefore placed at 3-4 months into the war, and is definitely after the Battle of the Bells because Catelyn only met Ned on her wedding day and it was a twin wedding, with Jon Arryn only needing to wed Lysa because his last heir have died during the BotBells. And its not "8 months of doing nothing". As noted, most of the early battles are smaller affairs with hastily assembled forces. It not only takes considerable time for full levies to be mustered and trained (see The Sworn Sword for general background information from the other end of the system), but the allies also have to clear out the Targaryen loyalists within their own realms - such were scattered everywhere, not just the three Lords Robert beat in a day (battles BTW, not duels). The allies can't afford to march on KL with Loyalist pockets in their rear. Logistics will already be difficult, and that would make it impossible. So some of that 8 months is internal consolidation. Some is mustering and training full forces. No doubt some is also conducting diplomacy, which takes a lot of time, with the Lannisters especially, but possibly also the Greyjoys and Martells. Clearly, even at the end of that 8 months, they are still not yet ready to march on KL, because its Rhaegar who moves out to meet them, not them who attack the Loyalists. Robert is famous for moving faster than anyone thinks possible. It seems likely that due to mistakes made by GRRM he actually moved faster than it is possible. Thats how the story rolls, sorry.
×