Mafia 88: Glimmers of the Pattern

[House Tyrell]

A few things I want to add about Moiraine:

One of the things that made me think Tuon was maybe more likely as Moiraine's symp is that I didn't really find distancing between them. She corrected me on that, and I think she was right on it. I now think they are really likely partners. I won't repeat the points I already made so here are some new ones for you to consider.

First the vote on Faile. The quote is above, but in her justification of the Faile vote, she uses Elayne's gut, which pointed to Moiraine and Faile. She picks Faile, which makes sense since it's when Lan starts pushing for Faile. But later, when Thom interrogates her on her role in the mob, she says this:

Awe Thom, I'm both hurt and taking it as a compliment. Although you don't have to abandon your earlier thoughts of me, we'll see about what sharp accusations I can do.

As far as the Faile situation. I do take other people's instincts into account, especially when I don't have strong opinions on another's guilt or innocence. And there are only a couple of people in this game right now who I have as likely town. It is true what I've said about Elayne nailing scum early on the first day in two games, and I did take that into account when Lan brought up Faile. Was it unsettling that another lynch candidate was brought up close to lynch, yes. But, I didn't have Faile as a likely town candidate - to be honest I would have preferred Moiraine from the other of Elayne's wagon but people were refusing that one. In the end part of why I went ahead and voted for Faile was exactly why I said concerning Loial. He was a newbie, and I was having a hard time voting for a newbie on their first day.

underlined is mine. My point is that apart from the post with her vote on Faile, she never gave any suspicion of Moiraine, and she voted Gawyn when Moiraine was getting votes. This looks like a posteriori distancing, at a point when Moiraine is not yet the center of attention.

After her reread and vote against Aviendha, she rereads Moiraine. This one I'm quoting in full even if it's long, because I think it's meaningful:

Hmm what is there really to say about Moiraine? He has 25 posts out of 1045, which seem like they're more than Aviendha, but sadly in Aviendha's fewer posts, she's provided more content than in half of what Moiraine has provided.

Why are we overlooking him again? Galad warned that we shouldn't. Seriously, what has this guy done? So, he quickly voted Elayne after a bad post; I'm not seeing how this clears him.

The only thing that he has expressed any opinions on were the circumstances surrounding Siuan yesterday, and I don't disagree with his points yesterday.

My biggest issue is that without any content whatsoever I have no way of evaluating him or his reads. I have no idea why he has some people town and some people scum, and since he has me on the scum read and I know I'm town I can't figure out how to balance what he's giving at all.

I've never seen this play style before, and quite frankly have no idea if it's more likely to come from scum or town. I'd tend to place it scum because he's completely closed himself off so we don't know what he's thinking or how to evaluate it. It leaves him as a blank spot that could float through the game without much notice. This technique of barely posting in an attempt to float through I have seen used by scum on a number of occasions.

Someone, maybe Galad, suggested it to be perfect symp behavior. I suppose I could see that. Give almost no information whatsoever but votes, which would keep us from finding out who his master are. He could then just stick his suspects/lack of suspects where he wants and not have to worry about answering for them.

If someone has a strong town read on him, I'd really like to hear why.

What bothers me are the underlined parts. She seems to say that Moiraine is worse than Aviendah, yet she doesn't switch her vote. So that could easily be distancing. Regarding the last part, it was something I had said (and Mat too as he reminded later), so I can only agree, but at the same time, it's a good excuse to prefer someone over Moiraine.

But it's even worse if you look at what happens later in the day. I'll give the timeline. I didn't quote the posts, it would be too long and would have taken mee too long, feel free to go back and check: #1231 Aviendha switches to Moiraine, putting Moiraine at 4 (2 on Siuan, Cadsuane, Egwene and Aviendha according to vote count in #1239); in #1240 Tuon asks Aviendha if she would vote Egwene; 1241 Tuon votes Egwene; 1243: asks Aviendha (?) why she is voting Moiraine.

I can understand questioning Aveiendha if she suspected her, but why try to have her switch to Egwene, and what happened to Tuon's suspicions of Moiraine?

Also, I'm starting to doubt my earlier townish read of Cadsuane upon another reread.

We might, however, be forced to vote Moiraine, unless he checks in and votes.

Here Tuon starts to suspect Cads more (forgot to quote this one in the previous post), and doesn't seem really happy about having to switch to Moiraine.

And then she has a very long exchange with Verin. She first questioning why Verin thinks Moiraine is likely innocent (posts #1305, 1307, 1312, 1320, etc...) yet she doesn't seem to consider switching her vote. That's also the part where she pushes Aviendha some more. Last is what I pointed yesterday when she says she has doubts about Egwene, yet doesn't remove her vote or consider switching.

All in alll, I'm fairly confident that Moiraine and Tuon are partners. Add to that my earlier thoughts that at least one of Avi, Faile or Moiraine is FM, and that I think Faile and Avi are less likely to be FM so if not Tuon I'll vote Moiraine.

Cads is possible. No clue on Mat, there were not that many interactions on days 1 and 2. Gawyn can't be the symp, he voted quite seriously for Tuon on day 2. Didn't really look at other possible symps.

[House Pommingham]

But it's even worse if you look at what happens later in the day. I'll give the timeline. I didn't quote the posts, it would be too long and would have taken mee too long, feel free to go back and check: #1231 Aviendha switches to Moiraine, putting Moiraine at 4 (2 on Siuan, Cadsuane, Egwene and Aviendha according to vote count in #1239); in #1240 Tuon asks Aviendha if she would vote Egwene; 1241 Tuon votes Egwene; 1243: asks Aviendha (?) why she is voting Moiraine.

I can understand questioning Aveiendha if she suspected her, but why try to have her switch to Egwene, and what happened to Tuon's suspicions of Moiraine?

Here Tuon starts to suspect Cads more (forgot to quote this one in the previous post), and doesn't seem really happy about having to switch to Moiraine.

And then she has a very long exchange with Verin. She first questioning why Verin thinks Moiraine is likely innocent (posts #1305, 1307, 1312, 1320, etc...) yet she doesn't seem to consider switching her vote. That's also the part where she pushes Aviendha some more. Last is what I pointed yesterday when she says she has doubts about Egwene, yet doesn't remove her vote or consider switching.

You know what's interesting is as I've gotten flack for being even-handed in my reads, you come along with this type of crap which reinforces why it's good to be even handed in reads. Because you're taking things out of context and mischaracterizing things to try to set me up. Why don't you go back and read all of what happened leading up to the day 2 lynch. I don't exist in a vacuum. Avi came on with her Grey Ajah theory, then voted Moiraine. Several of us thought that she was Egwene's possible partner by her posts and actions. I voted Egwene to make them even, as I stated. I had given a read in which I thought that she looked suspicious and I'd vote for her and Gawyn was convinced of her guilt and had given a case. There was a push for the Egwene wagon that night. Yes, I stayed up and listened to her defense and asked there not to be a hammer. I clearly stated I needed time to think. Sorry that it was 4 am and I wasn't thinking clearly enough to remove my vote to make it not happen, I've already stated that I should have.

I just find it very interesting that you're twisting the evidence to make my actions look scummy. I may not be perfect, but scum I'm definitely not. But, with every mischaracterization you make, I feel a lot better about my vote on you.

[House Tyrell]

You know what's interesting is as I've gotten flack for being even-handed in my reads, you come along with this type of crap which reinforces why it's good to be even handed in reads. Because you're taking things out of context and mischaracterizing things to try to set me up. Why don't you go back and read all of what happened leading up to the day 2 lynch. I don't exist in a vacuum. Avi came on with her Grey Ajah theory, then voted Moiraine. Several of us thought that she was Egwene's possible partner by her posts and actions. I voted Egwene to make them even, as I stated. I had given a read in which I thought that she looked suspicious and I'd vote for her and Gawyn was convinced of her guilt and had given a case. There was a push for the Egwene wagon that night. Yes, I stayed up and listened to her defense and asked there not to be a hammer. I clearly stated I needed time to think. Sorry that it was 4 am and I wasn't thinking clearly enough to remove my vote to make it not happen, I've already stated that I should have.

I just find it very interesting that you're twisting the evidence to make my actions look scummy. I may not be perfect, but scum I'm definitely not. But, with every mischaracterization you make, I feel a lot better about my vote on you.

The difference with other rereads is that I go with a quasi-certainty that you are guilty, so yeah I'm biased. However I quote/links or give posts numbers so that everyone can go have a look and make his own opinion, which I find much fairer than so-called even-handedness. If you honestly feel I'm misrepresenting you, why don't you go and prove it instead?

Now you're trying to overexplain your vote on me, or are you trying to tell you did think before that we can both be innocent? You didn't give that impression.

Edit for clarification

[House Pommingham]

The difference with other rereads is that I go with a quasi-certainty that you are guilty, so yeah I'm biased. However I quote/links or give posts numbers so that everyone can go have a look and make his own opinion, which I find much fairer than so-called even-handedness. If you honestly feel I'm misrepresenting you, why don't you go and prove it instead?

Now you're trying to overexplain your vote on me, or did you think before that we can both be innocent? You didn't give that impression.

Actually, it's something that I tossed around and had a post started before your latest mischaracterization of me. The way that you are mischaracterizing my actions leads me to believe you are guilty, but I'm starting getting worried that we're basing too much on what we think can't happen based on roles. I don't know if you're telling the truth or not and I really wish I'd checked you on night two instead of Faile now, but is it absolutely impossible that we are on the same team.

After being reminded about the Charmed game, I started thinking about the roles I've seen in recent games, and I started to get a little worried.

A few games back, there was a three faction game. The FM had no roles, the symps had NAF roles and team innocent had a finder, and apprentice finder, a vigilante, a lynch protector and a BP.

I've already explained the set up in the Charmed game in which the FM had no roles, while the innocents had a fair amount of good ones. In that game the SK revealed and several people didn't believe her claim because they said there was no way she was a BP SK with a finder role. Except she was.

You said yourself that you had me likely innocent until my claim. What if we're screwing ourselves over by saying something can't happen that can? I know I'm innocent. I know I have a scummy role, but that I can't help. The more you mischaracterize my actions, the more I think you're guilty, but if we're basing things on roles, we could be going about things completely wrong.

See the thing is I thought you were likely guilty before, because if Verin was a symp I think you'd fit perfectly as his master.

But, if you are telling the truth and you are a one shot finder, what prevents us from being on the same team?

I'd love to go in and point by point prove to you where you're wrong about me, but this is falling at a bad time for me. I have a meeting in an hour that I'm in the middle of preparing for and have spent too much time here as it is this morning.

[Lady Gaga]

Tuon, you're overly dramatic. I don't think you're guilty but this the 4th time you've gotten very very defensive this game. I'm going to assume you wouldn't be this passionate if you were guilty.

[House Ashford]

Nynaeve: say we go with a town vs. town scenario here, I still have my doubts on the Siuan, but that would have to make her PI.

We have about two other hours for the deadline, I'll be in and out until then. We either risk not compromising on a lynch at this point and go to night or we suggest another suspect then.

Do we still think Aviendha could be guilty? Is it likely that Aviendha/Faile/Moiraine are partnered?

I know Aviendha 2.0 has to do a chunk of effort to catch up, but there isn't anything exactly heartwarming that she's come up with. Considering that her big blank spots are exactly the people that have been suspecting Aviendha 1.0.

Tuon: is there anyone of those three you would vote for?

[House Velaryon]

Tuon, you're overly dramatic. I don't think you're guilty but this the 4th time you've gotten very very defensive this game. I'm going to assume you wouldn't be this passionate if you were guilty.

You don't think over defensiveness is more likely, or even as likely to come from a fm?

[House Sunglass]

Wait, what? 2 hours to the deadline, that doesn't sound right?

Working through my thoughts, be up soon.

[House Sunglass]

Holy fuck. It is actually 2 hours. I thought it wasn't for another 6ish or so and was taking my time with this.

I haven't read a lot of the Nynevea vs Tuon argument. Or not as much as I should but here's what I'm thinking/up to.

Apologies in advance for the length of this, it's as much for me as it is for you.

In terms of the motivation and timing of the claims my thoughts are the following;

- I find little reason for Tuon to fake claim a role such as that in there as FM. He was suspected minimally and it was recognized that he was not going to be lynch today nor likely in future days, furthermore his opinions were fairly highly regarded and trusted therefore going out of his way to claim a throw-awayish role would put unneeded attention on him in which he has no advantage to draw. The only reason I can see him claiming it as a Symp is if he was attempting to send a message to his FM partners and alert them that he's their symp. The only way this could be possible is if one of his investigations is his FM partner and he's claimed non-sedai on them when they were actually a sedai which would mean the only way that Tuon is Symp is if either Faile or Cadsuane were his master. I'll be focusing on his prior interaction with both of them to see if that's at all possible in the next hour.

- I can see real scum motivation behind Nyneveas claim, that being she was getting run up and a very likely lynch and the claim gives her a realistic chance to fight it of. However this is all nullified by the fact that her claim was clearly set up days prior where she was italizing Siuans name in her VCA. I can see her doing this as scum, though probably not with Siuan as a FM partner as a linkage towards her is too risky and the reward from it is too small. Which means if Nynevea is a FM Siuan is town. I can see her setting this up on Siaun-Town though, it allows her to have a reason to buddy Siuan and doesn't even force her hand in protecting Siuan as if Siuan were to get run up she wouldn't be compelled to claim and defend her unless the italization was pointed out by someone which is unlikely.

In terms of the roles themselves:

- I cannot see Tuon having that role as a symp, it'd be completely useless. I can see FM having that role as it would allow them to hunt down the PR's more effectively though but at the same time it's very plausible to be town, another power role but little power added.

- I can see Nynevea having her role as an innocent only, however her role is very easily fakable. The real thing stopping me from thinking her role is faked though is that her breadcrumb was one day after Lan had already claimed traveller. Surely at that point the mafia would know that fake-claiming or setting up a fake claim for another investigative role would have us grill and consider lynching them.

Alternate thoughts;

- Nyneave, if you strongly believe Tuon is a symp why are you pushing his lynch today? Wouldn't his flip of 'Sided with the dragons' make you look even worse tomorrow and not rid us of any of the killing faction? You mention you have notes, can I see them?

- Tuon, since your role cannot confirm anyone as mafia why didn't you wait and hold of using your shots until later in the game after claims had occurred and then been able to have some usefulness for the role?

[House Tyrell]

Actually, it's something that I tossed around and had a post started before your latest mischaracterization of me. The way that you are mischaracterizing my actions leads me to believe you are guilty, but I'm starting getting worried that we're basing too much on what we think can't happen based on roles. I don't know if you're telling the truth or not and I really wish I'd checked you on night two instead of Faile now, but is it absolutely impossible that we are on the same team.

After being reminded about the Charmed game, I started thinking about the roles I've seen in recent games, and I started to get a little worried.

A few games back, there was a three faction game. The FM had no roles, the symps had NAF roles and team innocent had a finder, and apprentice finder, a vigilante, a lynch protector and a BP.

I've already explained the set up in the Charmed game in which the FM had no roles, while the innocents had a fair amount of good ones. In that game the SK revealed and several people didn't believe her claim because they said there was no way she was a BP SK with a finder role. Except she was.

You said yourself that you had me likely innocent until my claim. What if we're screwing ourselves over by saying something can't happen that can? I know I'm innocent. I know I have a scummy role, but that I can't help. The more you mischaracterize my actions, the more I think you're guilty, but if we're basing things on roles, we could be going about things completely wrong.

See the thing is I thought you were likely guilty before, because if Verin was a symp I think you'd fit perfectly as his master.

But, if you are telling the truth and you are a one shot finder, what prevents us from being on the same team?

I'd love to go in and point by point prove to you where you're wrong about me, but this is falling at a bad time for me. I have a meeting in an hour that I'm in the middle of preparing for and have spent too much time here as it is this morning.

Honestly I don't know. I've not played in a long long time and it seems that settings have changed somewhat, so maybe I should reconsider. I'll have a closer look at the day 2 lynch, I've tried to take things into local context but I didn't read it all completely. I'm at work too and spending way too much time on it also.

Assuming we are both innocents, then who do you think the FM are? I can't shake my mind off Moiraine, but I might be getting tunnelvisioned.

I think you raised good points on Aviendha on day 2, as I've said before. So maybe I should look into that direction.

I think I'll take a break, time to finish some work and go home. For once I'll be here almost until the lynch time (barring the time I go home). I may or may not have to leave shortly before, as a friend is picking me up around that time.

[House Sunglass]

Summary of it is that I actually am seriously considering this to be a town vs town battle and really am not comfortable lynching between them today though if push came to shove I'd vote Nynevea over Tuon.

I still want to lynch Aviendha, none of his insights since replacing in have been all that useful or valuable and his play looks more like FM coasting thinking that todays lynch leads to their likely win. Since replacing in he's really done nothing. Stated he's happy lynching of the claims but hasn't stated any real reads on everyone outside of the claims, certainly not enough to be comfortable voting anyone but he doesn't show intention of doing so either.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 4

10 players remain: Aviendha., Cadsuane Melaidhrin, Gawyn Trakand, Mat Cauthon, Moiraine Damodred, Siuan Sanche, Thom Merrilin, Tuon, Faile Bashere, Nynaeve al'Meara.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

2 votes for Cadsuane Melaidhrin (Siuan Sanche, Faile Bashere)

2 votes for Nynaeve al'Meara (Tuon, Moiraine Damodred)

1 vote for Tuon (Nynaeve al'Meara)

5 players have not voted: Aviendha., Cadsuane Melaidhrin, Gawyn Trakand, Mat Cauthon, Thom Merrilin.

[House Sunglass]

Aviendha

I wouldn't strongly oppose a vote on Cadsuane either, nothing of hers strikes me as strongly town and she makes sense being partners with a lot of my scum reads.

[Lady Gaga]

You don't think over defensiveness is more likely, or even as likely to come from a fm?

Not in this case. I think Tuon is geniune. It's just annoying because it saturates the thread with very little new information.

[House Reed]

I have reread Tuon and Nynaeve but suprisingly neither of them mentions to be FM in any of their posts.

But seriously, I'm at a loss here. Overall, Nynaeve's claim seems so convenient and came latest, so that I will vote her I think. Why didn't she choose to do anything else as FM? Because momentum clearly shifted her way I think. And with all the other "conveniencies", she probably chose this, because she still may escape lynch in a finder battle and it also is good to setup her second partner to look good and her thrid partner to be forgotten.

I don't like the talk about "both are town". It feels contrived at this point.

I still haven't understood Gawyn's argument that we shouldn't lynch either of the both. I think we should.

[House Sunglass]

Thom, do you see any motivation for Tuon to claim that role as a FM who was getting no negative attention, I don't. I can see Nynevea possibly claiming that role as FM but it would mean her setting up a finder breadcrumb A DAY AFTER Lan claims traveller. Possible but not my strongest suspicion.

[House Sunglass]

Lets say between them the following possibilities lie;

1. One is town, the other is FM

2. One is town, the other is symp

3. Both are town.

In (1) by lynching the FM, we're in a good position and by lynching the town we're not in a great position at all. In (2) lynching either of them is bad for us because we won't know if theyr'e symp or innocent and still be dealing with the validity of the other one tomorrow possibility with more suspicion on them. In (3) lynching between them is probable autoloss.

[Lady Gaga]

Aviendha

I wouldn't strongly oppose a vote on Cadsuane either, nothing of hers strikes me as strongly town and she makes sense being partners with a lot of my scum reads.

I can see either of them as scum, Aviendha more than Cadsuane, but I have a really hard time believing that both claims are real. I obviously believe Tuon is innocent so that means Nynaeve must be FM.

Though as you keep saying, she set it up which does give me pause. We cannot get this lynch wrong so this is ridiculously frustrating to me. I can't make a decision.

[House Tyrell]

Holy fuck. It is actually 2 hours. I thought it wasn't for another 6ish or so and was taking my time with this.

I haven't read a lot of the Nynevea vs Tuon argument. Or not as much as I should but here's what I'm thinking/up to.

Apologies in advance for the length of this, it's as much for me as it is for you.

In terms of the motivation and timing of the claims my thoughts are the following;

- I find little reason for Tuon to fake claim a role such as that in there as FM. He was suspected minimally and it was recognized that he was not going to be lynch today nor likely in future days, furthermore his opinions were fairly highly regarded and trusted therefore going out of his way to claim a throw-awayish role would put unneeded attention on him in which he has no advantage to draw. The only reason I can see him claiming it as a Symp is if he was attempting to send a message to his FM partners and alert them that he's their symp. The only way this could be possible is if one of his investigations is his FM partner and he's claimed non-sedai on them when they were actually a sedai which would mean the only way that Tuon is Symp is if either Faile or Cadsuane were his master. I'll be focusing on his prior interaction with both of them to see if that's at all possible in the next hour.

- I can see real scum motivation behind Nyneveas claim, that being she was getting run up and a very likely lynch and the claim gives her a realistic chance to fight it of. However this is all nullified by the fact that her claim was clearly set up days prior where she was italizing Siuans name in her VCA. I can see her doing this as scum, though probably not with Siuan as a FM partner as a linkage towards her is too risky and the reward from it is too small. Which means if Nynevea is a FM Siuan is town. I can see her setting this up on Siaun-Town though, it allows her to have a reason to buddy Siuan and doesn't even force her hand in protecting Siuan as if Siuan were to get run up she wouldn't be compelled to claim and defend her unless the italization was pointed out by someone which is unlikely.

In terms of the roles themselves:

- I cannot see Tuon having that role as a symp, it'd be completely useless. I can see FM having that role as it would allow them to hunt down the PR's more effectively though but at the same time it's very plausible to be town, another power role but little power added.

- I can see Nynevea having her role as an innocent only, however her role is very easily fakable. The real thing stopping me from thinking her role is faked though is that her breadcrumb was one day after Lan had already claimed traveller. Surely at that point the mafia would know that fake-claiming or setting up a fake claim for another investigative role would have us grill and consider lynching them.

Alternate thoughts;

- Nyneave, if you strongly believe Tuon is a symp why are you pushing his lynch today? Wouldn't his flip of 'Sided with the dragons' make you look even worse tomorrow and not rid us of any of the killing faction? You mention you have notes, can I see them?

- Tuon, since your role cannot confirm anyone as mafia why didn't you wait and hold of using your shots until later in the game after claims had occurred and then been able to have some usefulness for the role?

I didn't say I thought Tuon is a symp, I said I was wavering whether she was more likely symp or FM. Which is why I said in my last post before I agreed to the truce that I would also vote Moiraine.

Most of my notes are posts I quoted when I was working on rereads or catching up on the thread, sometimes with comments questions. My posts are more organized forms of those. The notes I mentioned earlier was simply when I was working on how the lynch mob progressed on day 1 (my VCA if you prefer), which consists of vote counts with underlines on the NaK. I've posted the summary of that. The originals are on my home computer, I can post them when I get home but I don't see what they would tell you.

[Lady Gaga]

Lets say between them the following possibilities lie;

1. One is town, the other is FM

2. One is town, the other is symp

3. Both are town.

In (1) by lynching the FM, we're in a good position and by lynching the town we're not in a great position at all. In (2) lynching either of them is bad for us because we won't know if theyr'e symp or innocent and still be dealing with the validity of the other one tomorrow possibility with more suspicion on them. In (3) lynching between them is probable autoloss.

But if we miss on say Aviendha or Cadsuane then we're back to the same question we had today.