The war

[Glom]

This topic is about a conflict that appear in the middle of the book, so do not read if you just started the book.

I do not get how Tywin Lannister can attack the Riverlands so early without fear? I would suppose that there must be some agreement of peace in the realm.

The first raid were made incognito by the Mountain and it must be connected to the abduction of Tyrion by Catelyn, former Tully.but it is made possible because of Riverrun gathering forces at Goldtooth, so the war must have been brewing for a while. I guess the way the abduction was done, in the Riverlands and by pleading to the peoples loyalty to Tully was an insult to the Lannisters that they could not ignore. It is by the way strange that the taking of Tyrion did not get more fuzz in the Kings Landing.

The further advances on all of Tullys vassals seem rather harsh, this surely would not go unpunished. I will have to read up on when this happened.

probably after the death of the king, it would have made them less bothered by consequences.

Is the attack on Riverlands supposed to be a show of strength?

[Horza]

His first raids were an attempt to lure Eddard Stark out to a trap at Mummer's Ford, but he'd already had his leg broken by Jaime so Dondarrion got invited to that party. The Lorch/Clegane raids are a declaration of war on Tully by Lannister, Tywin's calculating that he'll be able to force them to surrender and compensate Lannister for kidnapping Tyrion. They're designed to make it hard for Tully to gather his bannermen by forcing them to choose between mobilising for campaign and defending their lands and smallfolk. This was a common strategy in medieval warfare.

[Distorted Humor]

As Horza said,

Once Tywin knew that the Starks, and Robert's two brothers had a high chance to contest his Officially nephew but really Double-Grandson claim when Robert's dies, there would be war. Stannis is off at dragonstone, and folks suspect that he gathering forces, then cat goes and seizes his son. At this point, the war has begun. Ravaging the small folk has a number of "Good" points.

1) Disrupts foraging in that area by future armies

2) Causes the Riverlords to want to defend there lands and people instead of going and defending there lord directly.

3) Tried to set up a trap for Ned, as Ned would be the type to go galloping off to fix the problem. Except by then Tywin son had already broken Ned's leg so there was no chance for him to ride.

Also, a quick strike eliminating the Riverlords would cause the Starks to be highly limited in there ability to strike on behalf of one of Robert's Brothers.

Medieval warfare was rough business.

[Glom]

The raid makes sense from Tywins side, a raid would stir up things and as they ride without banners it could be done without too much of repercussion. After rereading the Eddard-chapter again, when he sits on the throne as the Hand, I can add

4) Tricking Tully to attack Lannister and begin the war themselves.

Interesting idea that it is made to get Eddard out on the field.

After the reread I understand that it is known that the west is on the brink of war and that the reason is Catelyns abduction of Tyrion.

I do not think that the Lannisters think Eddard nows anything about the claim to the throne yet.

I understand that Tywin wants to set Tully straight and show who is in charge, but I can´t think that the large scale conflict that follows is something usual in a realm in peace. It is strange that the king do not try to calm things down. On the other hand, he might enjoy the little conflicts as long as the contrahents calms down eventually.

When I go back to the previous Eddard-chapter when he wakes up, it is clear that the king expects that Stark reconciles with the Lannister and returns Tyrion, so he does really try to calm things down. Would tywin have settled for this?

[bede]

It is just speculation for sure, but I do not think Lord Tywin would just settle for a mere return to normalcy. The abduction of Tyrion was kind of a serious affront to the Lannister name/honor in Tywin's eyes. One need only to look at what befell the Reynes once they drew his ire. I do not suggest the retribution would be nearly as harsh, but I doubt Tywin would simply let bygones be bygones, so to speak, if Robert brokered a truce between Stark and Lannister via the release of Tyrion from captivity.

[Glom]

I have given the attack from Tywin some thought, I am convinced that it is made so fast and so strong because of an awaited conflict with Stannis over the crown. This conflict with Stannis shouldn´t have begun until the king was dead, as "Distorted Humour" explains above. When Stark suddenly takes one of Tywins sons as a hostage, it is probably viewed as the first move in that war. Tywin has no other choice than to start the planned war and attack first. He is cautious though and starts with moving the army to the border and launching that raid without banners. When the king dies, Tywin immediatly starts his real offensive.

I have read Eddard XII, where Pycelle tells Eddard that Tywin isn´t pleased by the verdict on Clegane. Eddard responds that Tywin can´t do anything about it without getting in trouble with the king. So I am pretty sure that Tywin didn´t start the offensive until the king was dead.

It is very strange how Catelyn could take Tyrion and then disappear, she must know this would bring war to the unprepared North. The only thing that could excuse that, would be if she brought him to justice in Kings Landing and then she would have been in deep trouble and in need evidence.

I do not suggest the retribution would be nearly as harsh, but I doubt Tywin would simply let bygones be bygones, so to speak, if Robert brokered a truce between Stark and Lannister via the release of Tyrion from captivity.

True! Stark, Tully and the ones that helped Catelyn would be high on the Lannister black list for a long time after this.

[bede]

IIRC, Catelyn's decision to apprehend Tyrion at the Crossroads was spurred by the protective/motherly emotions over what had happened to Bran earlier in the book. It was not a very logical or rational decision, especially when one takes into consideration the fact that her husband and daughters were literally inside the maws of KL, where Lannister power and influence was quite potent.

[bede]

I am not sure that Lord Tywin initiated the offensive with Stannis in mind at that point. IIRC, it was due to the Starks (courtesy of Cat) taking Tyrion hostage. As others have pointed out here and elsewhere, the original plan was to lure Lord Eddard out and capture him, thus setting the groundwork to negotiate an exhange of hostages between both camps. But Jaime's rashness dashed those plans, as an injured Ned sent out Dondarrion in his stead to issue the King's justice.

Keep in mind that at this point, Stannis is on Dragonstone. It does not seem prudent for Tywin to devise battle plans and arrange offensives against someone whose actions/motivations/plans remain nebulous at this point in time of the series. It does seem more plausible that the Lannister forces are mobilized due to the burgenoing conflict with Houses Stark/Tully.

[Glom]

Most definetly, is the Tywin attack brought on by the kidnapping of Tyrion by Catelyn on Tullys lands.

I have read more on the chapter Tyrion VII, where Tyrion meets with Tywin and Tywin explains what ahve been going on. Tywin says he could not let Lannister blood be spilled unpunished, he ends by stating that he needs to take care of the upstart northerner fast so he can prepare to take on Stannis. This last statement and the fact that he was so prepred for war, leads me to belive that he had been expecting something war-like from stannis side. Possibly ever since Stannis locked himself away on that island.

[bede]

Most definetly, is the Tywin attack brought on by the kidnapping of Tyrion by Catelyn on Tullys lands.

I have read more on the chapter Tyrion VII, where Tyrion meets with Tywin and Tywin explains what ahve been going on. Tywin says he could not let Lannister blood be spilled unpunished, he ends by stating that he needs to take care of the upstart northerner fast so he can prepare to take on Stannis. This last statement and the fact that he was so prepred for war, leads me to belive that he had been expecting something war-like from stannis side. Possibly ever since Stannis locked himself away on that island.

Yes, your observation is correct. Once King Robert was dead and Renly fled KL, Lord Tywin likely began making preparations for a possible conflict with both Baratheon brothers, especially since, IIRC, each did not pledge fealty to Joffrey.

[starvinmarvin]

Tywin would have known that Stannis left for Dragonstone after Jon Arryn's death, leading me to believe that he began preparations in the event Stannis attacked.

Furthermore, as was correctly mentioned above, Tywin wanted the Tullys to attack first because they would be seen as the aggressor, hence his use of Gergor's raids without flying banners. Without banners all that can be used to indicate that Tywin was behind these raids is hearsay, allowing him to orders these attacks without fear of serious repercussion. This plan became altered after the Starks and Tullys were declared traitors by newly minted King Joffery, which effectively eliminated the need for Tywin to be seen as defending himself against Tully aggression. As a result Tywin became free to engage the Tullys/Starks though raids with banners and massed troops

[AegonTargaryen]

If I misunderstood things someone please correct me. As far as I could tell, prior to Tyrion being abducted by Catelyn, Tywin had no reason to believe that there was a looming conflict with the Starks/Tullys. Both Tywin and Ned believed Joffrey to be Robert's true son, and as such any war of succession would have been very unlikely. Tywin would have supported his grandson's claim, and if Ned believed Joffrey was really his best friend's son, there's no reason to believe he would ally with Robert's brothers against Joffrey. Also, Sansa was betrothed to Joffrey.

They key point is that Tywin didn't believe there was a looming conflict of succession. The whole war was started because of Jaime and Cersei's incestuous relationship, of which Tywin was unaware. With this in mind, The rational expectation would have been a rapprochement of houses Lannister, Stark, Baratheon and Tully, seeing as Sansa was to wed Joff. Instead Bran sees Jaime and Cersei, and shit hits the fan.

I always thought Tywin attacked the riverlands only because Catelyn took Tyrion. Following the kidnapping all signs seem to point to relatively minor conflict between houses Lannister and Stark/Tully. Ned is captured, traded for Tyrion, King's peace is restored, Sansa weds Joff, forgive and forget. Of course all bets are off when....MAJOR SPOILERS BELOW

Ned realizes Joff isn't Robert's son, King Robert dies and the Lannister secret (of which Tywin is unaware) is out, Joff hacks off Eddard's head, and Robb descends upon the Lannisters with the north and riverlands behind him.

From my understanding, Tywin could never have anticipated that things would escalate to such madness when he attacked the riverlands.

[Glom]

It must be annoying for everyone that they do not now where Catelyn and Tyrion is hiding,

I guess most of them assume they are at Riverrun. I haven´t thought about that, it would explain the fast response of Tywin against Tully.

I am quite convinced that Tywins full-scale attack starts first after the kings dies, as Starvinmarwin says above. Probably Tywin expects something from the north, not a throne war but some reaction and the plan should obviously be to exchange Eddard for Tyrion and peace, all Tywins raiding in Riverlands would be promptly forgiven by the new king and even hefty rewarded.

They would have showned themselves strong and thta coudl help against Stannis and other thinking about the throne.

[bede]

Once Robb Stark called the banners and marched south, it seemingly was the reaction Lord Tywin needed to engage in armed conflicted. IIRC, he wanted to deal with them first before turning his attention to the Baratheon brothers.

Agree with the poster who mentioned the declaration of Tully/Stark as traitors to the Crown as being the catalyst Lord Tywin needed to rally his bannermen and prepare for armed conflict with aforementioned belligerents.

Joffrey's decision to execute Ned was akin to throwing kerosene onto a fire, as it made any sliver of hope for diplomacy impossible with the North and thrust the Seven Kingdoms into a state of near total Civil War

[AegonTargaryen]

Once Robb Stark called the banners and marched south, it seemingly was the reaction Lord Tywin needed to engage in armed conflicted. IIRC, he wanted to deal with them first before turning his attention to the Baratheon brothers.

Joffrey's decision to execute Ned was akin to throwing kerosene onto a fire, as it made any sliver of hope for diplomacy impossible with the North and thrust the Seven Kingdoms into a state of near total Civil War

Completely agree. Assuming the event you mentioned in the spoiler had not taken place, the situation would have been perfect for a diplomatic solution (between house Lannister and house Stark/Tully), with the exchange of prisoners as its basis. Although a war of succession was already in full swing.

[bede]

Completely agree. Assuming the event you mentioned in the spoiler had not taken place, the situation would have been perfect for a diplomatic solution (between house Lannister and house Stark/Tully), with the exchange of prisoners as its basis. Although a war of succession was already in full swing.

From what I can recall, it was past the point of a prisoner exchange, moving from Eddard (had he been uninjured and fit enough to fall for the trap awaiting him when he rode out to exact king's justice on the bannerless raiders razing the Riverlands) for Tyrion to Eddard allowed to take the Black and (I assume negotiations involving the release of Jaime from Robb's camp and the Stark girls in KL).

[AegonTargaryen]

From what I can recall, it was past the point of a prisoner exchange, moving from Eddard (had he been uninjured and fit enough to fall for the trap awaiting him when he rode out to exact king's justice on the bannerless raiders razing the Riverlands) for Tyrion to Eddard allowed to take the Black and (I assume negotiations involving the release of Jaime from Robb's camp and the Stark girls in KL).

Ok I still can't figure out how to do those spoiler tab things, so SPOILERS BELOW

The whole thing about Ned taking the black was before the battle of the whispering woods, and before Jaime's capture. After the battle half the Lannister army was scattered, Tywin's son and heir was in captivity, and the Baratheons had risen. The Lannisters I would imagine would have sued for peace had Ned still been alive, and in all likelihood Ned would have been returned to the Starks and Jaime to the Lannister, as the basis for a peace between Starks and Lannisters. In any case, before Ned's murder, Robb had demonstrated enough "power" in order to force a diplomatic solution with the Lannisters. Of course Ned's murder plunged the kingdoms into an all out civil war.

In the words of Lord Tywin, had Ned been alive, they could have used him to broker a peace with Winterfell and Riverrun, instead, "madness, madness and stupidity"

[bede]

I do not envisage that it would have been a clear cut trade of Ned for Jaime at that point. Lord Eddard stood accused of treason, and simply releasing him to his bretheren in exchange for the Kingslayer would not befit the Lannister vision of suing for peace after events unfolded as they did. I think the plan from the Lannister POV under such a scenario, had Ned lived, would have been for him to be allowed to take the Black in exhange for a recant of his treason and the Starks/North bended knee in submission to Joffrey, and the release of the Kingslayer. Ergo, Robb's prowess in battle would have been better served had his father not committed the blunder of getting himself locked up for treason, IMO. Then, an exchange and a sue for peace like you intimated in the above post would have been more plausible.

Furthermore, at that point, no one really knew what Stannis was up to and presumably Renly was marshaling the might of the Reach and the Stormlands to his cause. The Bratheons were not risen yet, but their ascent was clearly just brimming over the horizon.

[AegonTargaryen]

I do not envisage that it would have been a clear cut trade of Ned for Jaime at that point. Lord Eddard stood accused of treason, and simply releasing him to his bretheren in exchange for the Kingslayer would not befit the Lannister vision of suing for peace after events unfolded as they did. I think the plan from the Lannister POV under such a scenario, had Ned lived, would have been for him to be allowed to take the Black in exhange for a recant of his treason and the Starks/North bended knee in submission to Joffrey, and the release of the Kingslayer. Ergo, Robb's prowess in battle would have been better served had his father not committed the blunder of getting himself locked up for treason, IMO. Then, an exchange and a sue for peace like you intimated in the above post would have been more plausible.

Furthermore, at that point, no one really knew what Stannis was up to and presumably Renly was marshaling the might of the Reach and the Stormlands to his cause. The Bratheons were not risen yet, but their ascent was clearly just brimming over the horizon.

I'm mostly in agreement with you in regards to the Lannister point of view and Ned's blunders.

Again, spoilers below

with that said though, I think that at this time the Lannister situation was dire, and for that reason they would have jumped at the opportunity to broker a peace. So although I don't think a diplomatic solution would have been easy, I think it would have been *possible*.

For the record, had I been advising Robb Stark, I would have advised a formal alliance with Renly, which would have effectively ended the war. (Of course shit gets wayyy more complicated with Stannis in the equation and the events in CoK, but let's work with the information we have as of GoT). After the alliance with Renly, ravens would have flown to Dorne and the Vale advising them that houses Stark, Baratheon, Tully and Tyrell were united against the Lannisters. It's revealed later that the bannermen of house Arryn were practically in open revolt for the failure to aid Robb Stark in his war, and Dorne could have been brought into the fold with the promise of the mountain and Tywin's heads. At this point the Lannisters take any peace they can get.

[bede]

Yes, such a scenario could have put the Lannister's in a sticky spot for sure. In that case, they would have no choice but to agree to whatever terms were presented to them.

The problem with this though is a Renly and Robb alliance. Had Renly been open to formally acknowledging Northron sovereignty, then I feel Robb and his Lord bannerment would doubtless enter an alliance. However, IIRC Renly's disposition was to rule the Seven Kingdoms--not six. In turn, I doubt Robb would bend the knee and sacrifice the freshly minted title of King of the North his men bestowed upon him, regardless of how much more favorable the odds of accomplishing the ends would become if he did so.

Dorne is the wild card in this as well. We learn in AFFC and ADWD that Prince Doran has some interesting plans up his sleeve that would be comprimised had he entered the fray in this hypothetical alliance, not to mention instantaneously squashing the enmity that has existed between the Dornish and the Reach (Highgarden particularly is strong for Renly's cause) for centuries...