I think Robb killed all his men...

[Tumnas the Torpid]

I think everyone here is focusing way too much on the specifics of the Red Wedding. There is no end of ways that marrying Jeyne could have put the lives of Robb's men at risk.

Walder could have responded by immediately renouncing his allegiance and closing the Crossing to Robb's army, leaving them most likely to die somewhere in the Riverlands.

Walder could have set his levies at open war with Robb's men, or betrayed them in their camps. Northmen dead in the Riverlands.

Hell, even if Robb had won the war in the south, he and his men still needed to go home eventually. If he decided to cross the Trident at the Twins, and put himself and his men in Walder's power...Northmen. Dead. Riverlands.

Yes, Walder Frey is a dirty, treacherous, lecherous son of a bitch, and I hate his stinking weasel guts. For that very reason (and this is not hindsight; Hoster called him "the Late Lord Frey" for a reason), it was sheer, unadulterated idiocy to think that any other match or concession would mollify him, or that any "truce" would hold, or that anything but disaster would come from putting oneself and all one's friends in that shitheel's hands.

[the trees have eyes]

Yes, Walder Frey is a dirty, treacherous, lecherous son of a bitch, and I hate his stinking weasel guts. For that very reason (and this is not hindsight; Hoster called him "the Late Lord Frey" for a reason), it was sheer, unadulterated idiocy to think that any other match or concession would mollify him, or that any "truce" would hold, or that anything but disaster would come from putting oneself and all one's friends in that shitheel's hands.

This is still all with the benefit of hindsight though. Frey was notorious for not taking risks, preferring to show up after the Batle of the Trident had been fought and not sending his levies to Riverrun when Edmure called them. It isn't sheer unadulterated idiocy to think that a match or concession would mollify him - that's exactly how politics and dynastic alliances work and exactly why every single Northern and River Lord goes to The Twins expecting the match to be made and the alliance renewed. It is far more surprising that he would take such an uncharacteristically bold and bloodthirsty step; which a lot of people think actually spells the end for the Freys.

[Tumnas the Torpid]

This is still all with the benefit of hindsight though. Frey was notorious for not taking risks, preferring to show up after the Batle of the Trident had been fought and not sending his levies to Riverrun when Edmure called them. It isn't sheer unadulterated idiocy to think that a match or concession would mollify him - that's exactly how politics and dynastic alliances work and exactly why every single Northern and River Lord goes to The Twins expecting the match to be made and the alliance renewed. It is far more surprising that he would take such an uncharacteristically bold and bloodthirsty step; which a lot of people think actually spells the end for the Freys.

This (the emboldened sentence) is exactly why it is not hindsight. Even at the best of times, Walder was a)notoriously disloyal: his armies never show up because he is hedging his loyalty, waiting to join the winning side, and b)notoriously thin-skinned, regarding perceived slights upon both himself and his house. This is the guy you're going to break a deal with?

That's a bad idea, regardless of the circumstances, but considering the fact that the Twins might be the single most important fortress Robb held, from a strategic point of view, it is suicide. Even if Walder had chosen a more honorable way of making his displeasure felt, and the Red Wedding, as such, never happened, losing the Twins may very well have lost Robb the war, and the lives of all or most of his men.

[bbqq]

This (the emboldened sentence) is exactly why it is not hindsight. Even at the best of times, Walder was a)notoriously disloyal: his armies never show up because he is hedging his loyalty, waiting to join the winning side, and b)notoriously thin-skinned, regarding perceived slights upon both himself and his house. This is the guy you're going to break a deal with? That's a bad idea, regardless of the circumstances, but considering the fact that the Twins might be the single most important fortress Robb held, from a strategic point of view, it is suicide. Even if Walder had chosen a more honorable way of making his displeasure felt, and the Red Wedding, as such, never happened, losing the Twins may very well have lost Robb the war, and the lives of all or most of his men.

I think everyone here is focusing way too much on the specifics of the Red Wedding. There is no end of ways that marrying Jeyne could have put the lives of Robb's men at risk. Walder could have responded by immediately renouncing his allegiance and closing the Crossing to Robb's army, leaving them most likely to die somewhere in the Riverlands. Walder could have set his levies at open war with Robb's men, or betrayed them in their camps. Northmen dead in the Riverlands. Hell, even if Robb had won the war in the south, he and his men still needed to go home eventually. If he decided to cross the Trident at the Twins, and put himself and his men in Walder's power...Northmen. Dead. Riverlands. Yes, Walder Frey is a dirty, treacherous, lecherous son of a bitch, and I hate his stinking weasel guts. For that very reason (and this is not hindsight; Hoster called him "the Late Lord Frey" for a reason), it was sheer, unadulterated idiocy to think that any other match or concession would mollify him, or that any "truce" would hold, or that anything but disaster would come from putting oneself and all one's friends in that shitheel's hands.

Uh, just thought I'd point out, there are various other ways to travel past the trident from north to south (or vice versa), it's just Robb needed to pass through the Twins for tactical reasons whilst invading from the north.

[Tumnas the Torpid]

Uh, just thought I'd point out, there are various other ways to travel past the trident from north to south (or vice versa), it's just Robb needed to pass through the Twins for tactical reasons whilst invading from the north.

I am aware that Robb needed the Twins because of Tywin's position. I understand that, if he won the war, he would have other options. I'm merely suggesting that, if he chose to cross at the Twins after a hypothetical victory, Walder might have betrayed him anyway.

[bbqq]

I am aware that Robb needed the Twins because of Tywin's position. I understand that, if he won the war, he would have other options. I'm merely suggesting that, if he chose to cross at the Twins after a hypothetical victory, Walder might have betrayed him anyway.

That's certainly true, I won't deny that. I was just disputing that you said the Twins were 'the single most important fortress Robb held', and that Tumnas the Torpid said losing the Twins would leave Robb and his men 'most likely to die somewhere in the Riverlands'. Expecting allegiance from Walder Frey after breaking the marriage pact was undoubtedly the stupidest thing he did, though.

[Tumnas the Torpid]

That's certainly true, I won't deny that. I was just disputing that you said the Twins were 'the single most important fortress Robb held', and that Tumnas the Torpid said losing the Twins would leave Robb and his men 'most likely to die somewhere in the Riverlands'. Expecting allegiance from Walder Frey after breaking the marriage pact was undoubtedly the stupidest thing he did, though.

Well, I should clarify that I am asserting my opinion of the value of the Twins. It certainly was extremely valuable, however. The Twins were his gate into the Riverlands, and, unless he broke the Lannister forces around him, they were his only way out. Unless he intended to abandon the North for good and all (which he did not, as we all know), the Twins were of the utmost importance to him.

Even if we imagine that the Young Wolf had won his war, and founded a new Kingdom of North and River (so to speak), the Twins would have remained a vital location to him, as it seems likely that Robb's holdings in the Riverlands would have remained west of the Trident. This means that the Twins would probably continue to serve as his chief crossing, as his other options would probably be awfully close to his enemies. The Twins would likely still end up as the gateway between the two halves of Robb's kingdom.

[Frumpus]

Robb made the same mistake that Ned did. He believed that other Lords/people, who profess to have honor, actually do and abide by it. Nobody but GRRM saw the Red Wedding coming and I, for one, still mourn the Young Wolf. Robb was mostly awesome but mistakes were made, the biggest with the help of his mother. Leaving Roose Bolton behind to guard the rear set the stage for all that followed. Roose should have been kept close so that he couldn't have went behind Robb's back to plot with Tywin and Walder Frey. Without Roose's help the RW would not have been possible.

I think you're forgetting Robb's other mistake: which was to live his life by a worthless honor code that ultimately led to both his father and his demise. He didn't have to marry Jeyne Westerling. She could have been one of his countless lovers. But no, he was too honorbound and too rigid in the old ways. It's probably a good thing that his men are not slaves to honor.

[the trees have eyes]

This (the emboldened sentence) is exactly why it is not hindsight. Even at the best of times, Walder was a)notoriously disloyal: his armies never show up because he is hedging his loyalty, waiting to join the winning side, and b)notoriously thin-skinned, regarding perceived slights upon both himself and his house. This is the guy you're going to break a deal with?

That's a bad idea, regardless of the circumstances, but considering the fact that the Twins might be the single most important fortress Robb held, from a strategic point of view, it is suicide. Even if Walder had chosen a more honorable way of making his displeasure felt, and the Red Wedding, as such, never happened, losing the Twins may very well have lost Robb the war, and the lives of all or most of his men.

The point is that he is known to be cautious and to hedge his bets. That is why the RW is such a surprise. It is an incredibly bold and far-reaching move. There is no turning back, no making amends, no possible restitution - it is a zero sum game and the River and Northern Lords will likely extinguish House Frey because of it. Until The RW Frey never did anything to inspire fear unlike a Tywin Lannister or Euron Greyjoy. What if he does something less dramatic like close the Twins (as in AGOT)? That is a strategic issue not certain defeat and slaughter.

To say marrying Jeyne was going to cost Robb all the lives of his men and robb should have known it is hindsight. To say marrying Jeyne was a dumb move and was likely to have adverse political and military consequences is spot on. What those consequences are is an open book. The Blackwater, Karstark's beheading, Bolton's betrayal, Lysa Arryn's apathy and the fortune of war lead to a terrible ending but its not as if Robb's fate is sealed by marrying Jeyne. Plenty more has to happen and happen badly before we get to that.

[Lord Damian]

Robb, once he crossed at the Twins quickly forgot how precarious his position was in the Riverlands with the Twins as the only viable crossing point for such a large host. Robb seems to have taken for granted that since he was King, the Freys would do what he commanded. Robb was between a rock and a hard place (Casterly Rock and the Crossing) Robb, like any commander or King is responsible for his men. He was abandoned unjustifiably by the Karstarks, He was justifiably abandoned by the Freys, he was unjustifiably betrayed by the Boltons but he will always be largely to blame. Crowns come at a cost you know.

[the trees have eyes]

Well, I should clarify that I am asserting my opinion of the value of the Twins. It certainly was extremely valuable, however. The Twins were his gate into the Riverlands, and, unless he broke the Lannister forces around him, they were his only way out. Unless he intended to abandon the North for good and all (which he did not, as we all know), the Twins were of the utmost importance to him. Even if we imagine that the Young Wolf had won his war, and founded a new Kingdom of North and River (so to speak), the Twins would have remained a vital location to him, as it seems likely that Robb's holdings in the Riverlands would have remained west of the Trident. This means that the Twins would probably continue to serve as his chief crossing, as his other options would probably be awfully close to his enemies. The Twins would likely still end up as the gateway between the two halves of Robb's kingdom.

Agreed, they are strategically vital. But if I am Walder Frey I am surrounded by River Lords sworn to Robb, the Mallisters can come out of Seagard, the Northmen down the Kings Road (yes, the Ironmen hold Moat Cailin at the time but in the long run it is a Northern stronghold) and the Arryns with their Stark and Tully connections down from the Vale. There is no hope for help for a very long way and he has to know it. It's a strange betrayal, a dramatic surprise in the story but both dynastic politics and geography make it a very bad move.

[ShinD]

Robb expected treason, but nothing of this scale, and for good reasons : it was madness from old Frey's part !

The old fool killed his House's name, which wasn't really popular from the start. There was no hidding, no explaining, nothing to prevent all of Westeros to despise the name Frey after the Red Wedding. That was 100% certain, whatever happened next.