How Stannis will gain entrance to Winterfell and sack the castle

[bemused]

Maege and Glover could have the will, but we don't know for sure. It could be elsewhere...

True. However, they would still know what Robb's decision was , and be acting in anticipation of regaining the document .

I'm really looking forward to this part of the story being revealed.

[kissdbyfire]

True. However, they would still know what Robb's decision was , and be acting in anticipation of regaining the document .

I'm really looking forward to this part of the story being revealed.

Yeah, they'll know for sure. It's just that most people assume they have the will and we're never really given that information, right? We know they carry the document with false intel in case they're captured before being found by Reed or his men but there's never any mention of them having the will as well. Mind you, it's possible that they do indeed have it, but we can't know for sure.

And me too, I can't wait to read how this plot will unfold!

[bemused]

I never know which member of my family has which of my books at any given moment, and then when I have them in hand , I forget half of what I wanted to look up... :D ..So maybe someone can clarify..

I've wondered if the document was concealed with Ned's bones..but I think the timeline could be off ? ... OTOH , if they've both passed through GWW , they could have been put together there... Who's going to go pawing around in Ned's ossuary ?...Except Lady Dustin, and come to think of it ,that could offer an alternate reason for her to be on the lookout for Ned's bones.... Her stated intention of feeding them to her dogs , being a cover story for intercepting and opening the casket.

( ... maybe just a bit of wild surmise )

[kissdbyfire]

I never know which member of my family has which of my books at any given moment, and then when I have them in hand , I forget half of what I wanted to look up... :D ..So maybe someone can clarify..

I've wondered if the document was concealed with Ned's bones..but I think the timeline could be off ? ... OTOH , if they've both passed through GWW , they could have been put together there... Who's going to go pawing around in Ned's ossuary ?...Except Lady Dustin, and come to think of it ,that could offer an alternate reason for her to be on the lookout for Ned's bones.... Her stated intention of feeding them to her dogs , being a cover story for intercepting and opening the casket.

( ... maybe just a bit of wild surmise )

But even if the will had been put with Ned's bones how would Barbrey Dustin know that? The idea is intersting... I'm convinced Barbrey's anti-Stark speech to Theon is BS.

[jon rr stark]

Stannis doesn't need to force entry to Winterfell. He just has to win the forthcoming battle at the ice lake and secure supply lines to white harbour or to the Glovers then Winterfell is cut off and will be starved out and forced to surrender. Boltons troops aren't loyal enough to withstand a seige especially if Stannis offers terms which mean they live. He needs all the northern troops to fight for him so will pardon them if they bend the knee to him.

[bemused]

I think it is highly possible her sole purpose is to get rickon away from stannis and to grey water watch.

Could be..

When we know so little about the goings on at GWW and what Maege and Glover have been up to , one guess is almost as good as another.

I've seen several appealing suggestions... one of which would have Manderly's ships (or some of them ) to move men north to attack the Dreadfort and deny Roose a retreat..I don't know how possible this is..on the positive side, since Stannis returned Moat Cailin to Lady glover it leaves an open path for Galbart Glover to move up to White Harbour, and therefore the North could have another able commander at it's disposal... but Wyman has said he has a shortage of sea captains..his own are mostly river men ( therefore his need for Davos )..but this may or may not be strictly truthful..he may have regular sea captains , just not smugglers.

I'm not sure Davos would be able ( or allowed ) to take Rickon to Stannis ( or even Manderly at WF) ..he may have to take him to WH and Wylis , first.

[bemused]

But even if the will had been put with Ned's bones how would Barbrey Dustin know that? The idea is intersting... I'm convinced Barbrey's anti-Stark speech to Theon is BS.

I think there's a fair bit of speculation that the lines of communication between GWW and those they want to communicate with are not as closed as it might seem. I can see this ,in light of Jojen and Meera's travels , and the apparent unconcern of Aly Mormont as to her mother's whereabouts. She tells Asha two of her sisters are with her mother in such a matter-of-fact way , she doesn't say they're missing, or appear worried about it, she mentions some sisters are on Bear Island , Dacey is dead , and then two more are with her mother .. I'm not exactly sure if both those girls went south with Maege and Robb either ( another thing I need to check.) ...Word can pass from one place to the other without Raven mail.

[kissdbyfire]

Stannis doesn't need to force entry to Winterfell. He just has to win the forthcoming battle at the ice lake and secure supply lines to white harbour or to the Glovers then Winterfell is cut off and will be starved out and forced to surrender. Boltons troops aren't loyal enough to withstand a seige especially if Stannis offers terms which mean they live. He needs all the northern troops to fight for him so will pardon them if they bend the knee to him.

I don't know... Since the first ADwD chapter in Winterfell I've had a very, very strong feeling that the Boltons and Freys are literally trapped inside the castle even if they're not aware of that yet.

I think there's a fair bit of speculation that the lines of communication between GWW and those they want to communicate with are not as closed as it might seem. I can see this ,in light of Jojen and Meera's travels , and the apparent unconcern of Aly Mormont as to her mother's whereabouts. She tells Asha two of her sisters are with her mother in such a matter-of-fact way , she doesn't say they're missing, or appear worried about it, she mentions some sisters are on Bear Island , Dacey is dead , and then two more are with her mother .. I'm not exactly sure if both those girls went south with Maege and Robb either ( another thing I need to check.) ...Word can pass from one place to the other without Raven mail.

Yes, very good points! Especially regarding Lyra and Jorelle Mormont. ;)

[bemused]

jon rr stark... I don't know about supply lines being maintained and effective in all that snow.. especially if it's going to keep up. It doesn't seem to me something that would be very easy to "just" do. That's a lot of men to keep supplied , and they don't have much in the way of shelter either. They're starving now , how long would it take for the first supplies to reach them ?

Yes , eventually Bolton will run out of supplies, but that may take a longer time than Stannis can afford in those conditions. Stannis , having lived through a long siege himself , would have given the situation ( and seiges in general) a lot of thought. And that's why he appears to be cooking up a cunning plan ;)..whatever it may be.

kissdbyfire...Thanks , and I should have mentioned that the whole appearance of Aly is a bit suspicious ,in itself. First we have Lyanna's gutsy answer to Stannis ( She and Wylla Manderly are girls after my own heart )..next thing we know, an older sister has joined her on Bear Island , and Aly turns up for Stannis ( but we don't hear of her actually swearing to him ).. It just makes me think an older, wiser head ( somewhere ) is stepping in and directing things...

After all, as Stannis comments on reading Lyanna's letter, Robb Stark is dead, so the thought follows..who is she talking about ? ..If there had been a further exchange of letters, would Lyanna have been in a position to give something away?..It just makes me think of Wylla being rushed from the hall before she could damage Manderly's game.

It might have been just a child's lingering loyalty , or she might have overheard important adult conversations.

[kissdbyfire]

kissdbyfire...Thanks , and I should have mentioned that the whole appearance of Aly is a bit suspicious ,in itself. First we have Lyanna's gutsy answer to Stannis ( She and Wylla Manderly are girls after my own heart )..next thing we know, an older sister has joined her on Bear Island , and Aly turns up for Stannis ( but we don't hear of her actually swearing to him ).. It just makes me think an older, wiser head ( somewhere ) is stepping in and directing things... After all, as Stannis comments on reading Lyanna's letter, Robb Stark is dead, so the thought follows..who is she talking about ? ..If there had been a further exchange of letters, would Lyanna have been in a position to give something away?..It just makes me think of Wylla being rushed from the hall before she could damage Manderly's game.

Well, I just did a thorough search for Maege/Mormont/Dacey/Alysane/Aly/Lyra/Jorelle/Jory. The results were quite intersting even if we can't be sure of anything yet. In AGoT/ACoK/ASoS not only there is no mention whatsoever of Lyra and Jorelle - not even in the appendixes - but the text seem to indicate that Dacey was the only one with Maege. For instance, this dialogue between Catelyn and Maege Mormont seem to indicate that Maege and Dacey were the only Mormonts that were with Robb at that point.

ASoS, chapter 45, Catelyn:

We are stronger than we seem, my lady,” Lady Maege Mormont said as they rode. Catelyn had grown fond of Lady Maege and her eldest daughter, Dacey; they were more understanding than most in the matter of Jaime Lannister, she had found. The daughter was tall and lean, the mother short and stout, but they dressed alike in mail and leather, with the black bear of House Mormont on shield and surcoat. By Catelyn’s lights, that was queer garb for a lady, yet Dacey and Lady Maege seemed more comfortable, both as warriors and as women, than ever the girl from Tarth had been.

Wouldn't it make sense that some mention would be made if Lyra and Jorelle were with them too?

But then we have this exchange between Asha and Alysane Mormont.

ADwD, The King's Prize:

“Do you have brothers?” Asha asked her keeper.

“Sisters,” Alysane Mormont replied, gruff as ever. “Five, we were. All girls. Lyanna is back on Bear Island. Lyra and Jory are with our mother. Dacey was murdered.”

“The Red Wedding.”

“Aye.” Alysane stared at Asha for a moment. “I have a son. He’s only two. My daughter’s nine.”

Curious, isn't it? I think you're onto something, bemused! ;)

I forgot to say that Lyra and Jorelle are not mentioned in any of the books (apart from Alysane's chat with Asha); their names simply don't appear. The only two exceptions are the appendixes in AFfC and ADwD, but even there the two of them and Aly are only listed as Maege's daughters with no info on their whereabouts.

[bemused]

kissdbyfire..Yay! That was fast ! ( I noticed your post a little earlier, but had stuff to do. )... I thought it was only Dacey that was mentioned with Maege, but really couldn't remember.

So ,I was wrong in that there's not an older daughter with Lyanna at the mo ..but still , any of the others might have been at home with her until very recently. In fact , I'd be surprised if it was otherwise.. doesn't Jon estimate she'd be about 10 ? It seems rational that Maege would have left someone more senior with her when she went off with Robb....( Robb leaving Bran was a different situation , Jon was at the wall .. there was no older family member to leave with Bran. Even so, Robb expected Cat to return..)

All this stuff makes me believe more and more in a Northern Conspiracy ..Obviously , none of the three older sisters were with Lyanna when she received Stannis' letter..So why wasn't at least one of them ? Was Alys with Maege as well ? ...Or it might be that she was just off to the mainland to receive / send messages of her own ? With news seeming to get about in the North without resorting to ravens , I'm imagining some sort of secret relay courier network ( think Pony Express )

Some weeks pass between Stannis sending out letters, getting some replies, then getting underway following Jon's advice, gathering up men from the clans , and getting to Moat Cailin. Enough time , if a courier system exists , to pull together a counter move , or make adjustments to plans I can't help feeling the North already had underway on their own.

I think for them , Stannis represents the lesser ( maybe much lesser ) of two evils. To oppose him, or simply not aid him at all, benefits the Boltons and Lannisters , yet the north doesn't really want to fully support him and give up on any hope of autonomy. It's one thing for Manderly to commit forces..much of the reserve army he began building for Robb is better suited to a more southern campaign ( at least a campaign not waged in deep snow ) what with all the ships and heavy horse... And I'm sure he'll keep his word to Davos. ( especially if it means helping Stannis ..or vice versa .. in taking down the Freys. ).. But the North will need men , too.

[jon rr stark]

jon rr stark... I don't know about supply lines being maintained and effective in all that snow.. especially if it's going to keep up. It doesn't seem to me something that would be very easy to "just" do. That's a lot of men to keep supplied , and they don't have much in the way of shelter either. They're starving now , how long would it take for the first supplies to reach them ?

Yes , eventually Bolton will run out of supplies, but that may take a longer time than Stannis can afford in those conditions. Stannis , having lived through a long siege himself , would have given the situation ( and seiges in general) a lot of thought. And that's why he appears to be cooking up a cunning plan ;)..whatever it may be.

kissdbyfire...Thanks , and I should have mentioned that the whole appearance of Aly is a bit suspicious ,in itself. First we have Lyanna's gutsy answer to Stannis ( She and Wylla Manderly are girls after my own heart )..next thing we know, an older sister has joined her on Bear Island , and Aly turns up for Stannis ( but we don't hear of her actually swearing to him ).. It just makes me think an older, wiser head ( somewhere ) is stepping in and directing things...

After all, as Stannis comments on reading Lyanna's letter, Robb Stark is dead, so the thought follows..who is she talking about ? ..If there had been a further exchange of letters, would Lyanna have been in a position to give something away?..It just makes me think of Wylla being rushed from the hall before she could damage Manderly's game.

It might have been just a child's lingering loyalty , or she might have overheard important adult conversations.

If Stannis can secure his own supply lines then a seige would be easier and quicker than normal given the current conditions. Although I agree it sounds like he has a cunning plan which will bring the situation to a close faster than a seige.

He may also have communication with the mormonts and GWW and I wouldn't be surprised if he knew about Robbs letter. Given than he knows Jon well now and his new attitude to the wall and defending it, he might be happy with that situation as he knows Jon will stay at the wall

[Harle The Handsome]

Stannis doesn't need to force entry to Winterfell. He just has to win the forthcoming battle at the ice lake and secure supply lines to white harbour or to the Glovers then Winterfell is cut off and will be starved out and forced to surrender. Boltons troops aren't loyal enough to withstand a seige especially if Stannis offers terms which mean they live. He needs all the northern troops to fight for him so will pardon them if they bend the knee to him.

Remember the Stark's Words, "Winter is Coming." There is absolutely no chance that Winterfell hasn't been preparing throughout the long summer for the next winter. Even with the missed last harvest and fire losses there is probably still two years worth of food stored in Winterfell. While the Freys and Boltons may realize they are trapped in a viper's next, they cannot and will not be starved out.

[jon rr stark]

Remember the Stark's Words, "Winter is Coming." There is absolutely no chance that Winterfell hasn't been preparing throughout the long summer for the next winter. Even with the missed last harvest and fire losses there is probably still two years worth of food stored in Winterfell. While the Freys and Boltons may realize they are trapped in a viper's next, they cannot and will not be starved out.

But weren't all the stores destroyed by ramsey

[kissdbyfire]

@bemused, I think the whole business with the she-bears is very interesting. One way I think it could have happened is Dacey went with Maege to join Robb back in AGoT but not Lyra and Jorelle - and all the info we have in the text supports this. Dacey is the eldest, followed by Alysane, Lyra, Jorelle, and Lyanna in that order. So, Dacey goes with mama bear and the other gilrs stay put. At some point - either after Maege reaches Greywater Watch or after the RW - Lyra and Jorelle join mama bear, and Aly is left in charge of Bear Island. And then, at some point, Aly decides to go get the ironborn, or she receives instructions from *someone*. It would make sense if Aly had already left Bear Island when Lyanna answer Stannis' letter. I've even contemplated the possibility of Jon, after reading Lyanna's letter to Stannis, having replied to Bear Island ( off screen) telling them that Stannis is marching towards Deepwood Motte, thus giving Aly the idea to go join them. I'm not sure if it fits with the timeline, I haven't checked yet. But this is definitely very intersting, I think. I'm going to bring this all up in the Northmen Conspiracy thread too. :)

[sumant30]

But weren't all the stores destroyed by ramsey

Ramsey put the the whole castle to torch i think that involves its food supplies too.

[sumant30]

If Stannis can secure his own supply lines then a seige would be easier and quicker than normal given the current conditions. Although I agree it sounds like he has a cunning plan which will bring the situation to a close faster than a seige.

He may also have communication with the mormonts and GWW and I wouldn't be surprised if he knew about Robbs letter. Given than he knows Jon well now and his new attitude to the wall and defending it, he might be happy with that situation as he knows Jon will stay at the wall

How can he know about robb's will i think stannis acted on the fact in NW that jon snow was the last stark and not because of the letter, because if he had the letter he would have told jon directly and jon too i think would have consented.

[bemused]

kissdbyfire..Yes, that's how I see it too... I don't know if Jon would have sent his own reply, because he was still trying to keep up some semblance of taking no part, but Stannis had sent out letters to all the North..Manderly could have had quick contact with GWW , Aly , etc.

I think the North had their plan to retake WF and retrieve Rickon..or produce Robb's missive..or both ,in some order. Then Stannis' reveals his plan and they decide they have to have men with him , helping him , in case he should succeed without them, or before them. ( Hence the help from the clans and Aly ) .They'd want to ideally take WF before him , and be the ones to help / save him .. or failing that, play a large part in the success of his plan .Better to be able to treat with him on equal terms instead of having to accept largesse at his hand.

Harle , jon rr , sumant.... I agree the stores would have been destroyed in the fire.. unless there are further dry stores below the ( wait for it ) crypts. :D..dried stuff , mushroom farms ( a la CoTF ) ?..we don't know..and we don't know, if such ever existed , whether anyone would have known to keep them up... There are all sorts of questions we can't answer.. e.g...were the poor squatters Roose used and disposed of all just squatters ?

I don't think Stannis can have been in touch with the Mormonts ( other than Lyanna ) or anyone at GWW.

[kissdbyfire]

@bemused, I'm going to paste one two three of your posts here and my reply to it in the Northern Conspiracy thread, hope it's ok! :)

[sumant30]

kissdbyfire..Yes, that's how I see it too... I don't know if Jon would have sent his own reply, because he was still trying to keep up some semblance of taking no part, but Stannis had sent out letters to all the North..Manderly could have had quick contact with GWW , Aly , etc.

I think the North had their plan to retake WF and retrieve Rickon..or produce Robb's missive..or both ,in some order. Then Stannis' reveals his plan and they decide they have to have men with him , helping him , in case he should succeed without them, or before them. ( Hence the help from the clans and Aly ) .They'd want to ideally take WF before him , and be the ones to help / save him .. or failing that, play a large part in the success of his plan .Better to be able to treat with him on equal terms instead of having to accept largesse at his hand.

Harle , jon rr , sumant.... I agree the stores would have been destroyed in the fire.. unless there are further dry stores below the ( wait for it ) crypts. :D..dried stuff , mushroom farms ( a la CoTF ) ?..we don't know..and we don't know, if such ever existed , whether anyone would have known to keep them up... There are all sorts of questions we can't answer.. e.g...were the poor squatters Roose used and disposed of all just squatters ?

I don't think Stannis can have been in touch with the Mormonts ( other than Lyanna ) or anyone at GWW.

@Bemused

I guess we could also find a alive Ned Stark in the crypts :P.Also how can manderly contact GWW because you have to find it you can't sent any ravens over there, also i find it amusing when robb called his banners where was GWW??