How the new WoW armies will stack up in terms of numbers

[Golden&Crimson]

@ Golden&Crimson

You are counting a lot of them double and thrice. Furthermore, most of them were discharged in Feast. Currently there are only ~3,000 men remaining, split between Dragonstone, Kings Landing, Darry, Riverrun, the road to Casterly Rock, Jaime/Daven's camp in the Riverlands and maybe the Rock itself.

I consider it pretty unlikely the Cersei of all people has the authority to get the discharged back into arms during winter and it would yield only 10,000 at best either way.

I think that you - and other people around the boards - want to make the current numbers of available men of the Lannisters very low because you don`t like them that much. :cool4:

Lets see:

Defeat at the Camps: 4.000 men retreated to the Golden Tooth.

Defeat at the Camps: maybe half of the losses are prisioners of the Riverlords - 5.000 men.

Defeat at Oxcross: maybe half of the host retreated safely into the walls of Lannisport - 5.000 men.

After Blackwater: Tywin must have around 15.000.

Total: 29.000 men

Of course the majority of them are discharged: no need to waste gold in a permanent standing army of thousands.

But, of these 29.000, half of them are veterans (mainly from Tywin host) that can be called back quickly and the others are also available (with some training to improve them) if needed and could be called from their civilian duties.

So we had this:

Some Lannister soldiers in KL: 2.000 men is a conservative estimate.

A small force under the command of Jaime: 1.000 in the Riverlands and on the way to deliver Edmure to the Rock.

Two hosts under the command of Daven: i split them about 2.500 in the Rock and Lannisport, and the others 2.500 in the Riverlands with Daven; im only counting the survivors of Oxcross.

13.000 discharged veterans of Tywin in the Westerlands; ready to war if needed.

4.000 survivors of Jaime`s host in the Westerlands in their civilian lives; that can be conscripted if needed.

Plus: the survivors of Jaime`s host that were prisioners of the Riverlords and freed after the final defeat of the Starks and Tullys - about 5.000 captured after the Battle of the camps (i estimate that the other 5.000 losses were men killed in the Battle of the Camps).

[Artos Stark]

So the War of the Five Kings is done and dusted, the old allegiances are falling apart, and a new War is brewing - part Dance of Dragons, part Kraken invasion, part War for the Iron Throne and then whatever the hell is going to happen in the North.

So who stands strongest at this point in time, given what we know and suspect about how the different factions are going to align themselves come Winds of Winter? Well, to answer that question one first has to identify the various factions involved. Using my Nostradamus-like foresight, I divide it into 5 main factions, with some unaligned forces falling somewhere in no man's land.

1. Aegon Blackfyre and his Golden Company/Dornish/part Stormlands alliance.

2. Daenerys Targaryen and her shrinking Unsullied numbers and soon to increase Dothraki numbers plus a limited number of Ironmen.

3. The Lannister/Tyrell alliance

4. The Ironborn under Euron who may not be aligned to Daenerys but are probably their own faction.

5. The soon to return King in the North and his Riverland allies.

Unaligned at this stage are really just the Vale, who may join Aegon if Littlefinger sees benefit in it, or the North if Sansa has her way, or they could maybe just sit it out until the last moment.

In any case, to cut a long story short, I see the comparative numbers of the five main factions stacking up as follows:

1. Aegon - 10k Golden Company + 20k Dornish spears + perhaps 10k Stormland troops = 40 000 men.

2. Daenerys - probably 6k Unsullied left + say a Kalashar of 20k Dothraki plus a smattering of pit fighters and other mercenaries and freed slaves of say another 10k plus say 5k Ironmen under Victarrion = a total of around 50 000 men. But I don't know about its quality and ability to fight together as a unit.

Still 50k is a powerful force this late in the game. Compared to Aegons 40k though, I'd put Aegon's army at a much higher level of quality. On a pure conventional warfare basis I would say his army would kick Dany's ass. Of course, that's excluding Dragons...

3. Lannister/Tyrell alliance - about 70k Reach forces, plus maybe 10k Lannister forces that are left. But these armies are scattered between Kings Landing, the Westerlands, the Stormlands and the Reach, so there probably isn't a single army bigger than 20k in one place.

4. Euron's Ironborn - I'd put them at 20k at most. But very mobile and able to strike any coastal area and disappear again. Their sole plot purpose is probably to weaken the Tyrells in preperation for Aegon's arrival.

5. King in the North - probably around 20k men once Winterfell is reclaimed and the North united again. Probably another 20k men in the Riverlands, if the Lannister hold on the area can be broken. Anyway, they have enough men in the North to repell any of the southron invaders should they try to force their terms onto the North, but not significant enough to have a major role in the course of the Southron war.

Then we have the Vale with maybe 40k men, in the best condition of any of the remaining forces in Westeros. They are potential Kingmakers at this stage and whoever they align themselves with will probably emerge victorious in the southron war.

So, did I miss anything? Essentially, in pure numbers, they compare as follows:

Aegon - 40k

Dany - 50k

Tyrell/Lannister - 80k (but about to be hit by Aegon, Dorne and Euron, and potentially a Riverland rebellion as well)

Euron - 20k

King in the North - 20k

The Riverlands forces are currently scattered and not included in the above, and the Vale forces are held back in search of the most suitable alliance to meet their needs. All in all, things appear very delicately balanced.

I wouldn't be so quick to discredit Dany's army. She has 6,000 unsullied who are possibly the best infantry in the world.. Also I would put her Freedmen companies at closer to 10 - 12 k troops, they are being trained personally by the Unsullied which leads me to believe that they will be tough. Also I believe when all is done, she will have most of the sell sword companies at Mereen which is probably close to 10k. Those along with 20k Dothraki and Barristan's knights, I think she will have a very tough force. (this isn't even including dragons)

Also with the North, I think we have to take into consideration the wildling forces who I believe will join the Northern cause under the new King in the North (Jon).

[Artos Stark]

King in the North is a force now...... but Stannis isn't?

Stannis is still alive, and has forces, so he's still a player.

The King in the North has a very large army and an easily defendable region. Stannis has none of those things.

[Free Northman]

While Bright Blue Eyes probably underestimates the remaining Lannister forces somewhat, you most certainly greatly overestimate them.

My contention is that there were only 40k to begin with.

20k with Tywin who have been through a number of battles and are probably down to 10k now.

15k with Jaime, of which 10-12k were slaughtered at the Whispering Wood and at the Camps. 3-5k withdrew and later joined up with Stafford to form his host of 10k total. That host was almost completely wiped out, with remnants fleeing back to Lannisport in disarray.

In addition, there was a lot of slaughter of smaller forces in the West as the Greatjon and tha Karstarks laid waste to the Lannister lands at will after Oxcross.

I'd say around 5k sweepings left in the West, and maybe 10k more of Tywin's old host scattered from King's Landing to the Riverlands.

15k total remaining, but no more than 5k in any one place.

[Free Northman]

That was at Golden and Crimson

[Fat Mac]

The King in the North has a very large army and an easily defendable region. Stannis has none of those things.

The King of the North has nothing, because there is no King in the North.

[Artos Stark]

I would estimate that the Lannisters have 10 - 20 k men remaining. I know that is a huge margin, but it is impossible to know exactly how many men were able to retreat back west. Also I'm curious to see what kind of new force the West could raise.

[Artos Stark]

The King of the North has nothing, because there is no King in the North.

What makes you say that? Jon was named Robb's heir in his will making him the King in the North, when Rickon comes back he will be Jon's heir, etc.

[Free Northman]

As for the wildlings, they have 5k soldiers at most. An insignificant number.

[Artos Stark]

As for the wildlings, they have 5k soldiers at most. An insignificant number.

I don't think 5,000 soldiers is insignificant, especially when adding to a force of 20,000. That number is 1/4 of the Northern force and would certainly strengthen them.

I also certainly don't think all of the Wildlings that are going to cross over have crossed, I think we will see another influx coming to the wall in the next book especially after the Weeper dies.

[Fat Mac]

What makes you say that? Jon was named Robb's heir in his will making him the King in the North, when Rickon comes back he will be Jon's heir, etc.

Jon is LC of the Night's Watch, and so far does not even know about Robb's will. He wears no crown, and no men are sworn to him. The North is not a separate Kingdom, and has a Warden, not a King. Jon is a bastard in the eyes of the realm, and a man of the Night's Watch.

This is the way it is. It might change, but as of now, King in the North is a worthless title that no one holds.

[Free Northman]

The 5000 includes those still beyond the wall. +nly something like 5k people have crossed the wall, and that includes old people women and children. There is currently only about 1000 wildling soldiers south of the Wall.

[King Aerys the Just]

Not to mention that aside from the Thenns, the wildling equipment seems to come straight from the Neolithic.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I think that you - and other people around the boards - want to make the current numbers of available men of the Lannisters very low because you don`t like them that much. :cool4:

Lets see:

Defeat at the Camps: 4.000 men retreated to the Golden Tooth.

Defeat at the Camps: maybe half of the losses are prisioners of the Riverlords - 5.000 men.

Defeat at Oxcross: maybe half of the host retreated safely into the walls of Lannisport - 5.000 men.

After Blackwater: Tywin must have around 15.000.

Total: 29.000 men

Of course the majority of them are discharged: no need to waste gold in a permanent standing army of thousands.

But, of these 29.000, half of them are veterans (mainly from Tywin host) that can be called back quickly and the others are also available (with some training to improve them) if needed and could be called from their civilian duties.

So we had this:

Some Lannister soldiers in KL: 2.000 men is a conservative estimate.

A small force under the command of Jaime: 1.000 in the Riverlands and on the way to deliver Edmure to the Rock.

Two hosts under the command of Daven: i split them about 2.500 in the Rock and Lannisport, and the others 2.500 in the Riverlands with Daven; im only counting the survivors of Oxcross.

13.000 discharged veterans of Tywin in the Westerlands; ready to war if needed.

4.000 survivors of Jaime`s host in the Westerlands in their civilian lives; that can be conscripted if needed.

Plus: the survivors of Jaime`s host that were prisioners of the Riverlords and freed after the final defeat of the Starks and Tullys - about 5.000 captured after the Battle of the camps (i estimate that the other 5.000 losses were men killed in the Battle of the Camps).

Maybe I'm a bit biased, but I try to keep it out of any assumptions. Victory would be even sweeter if the Lannisters had a force to be reckoned with.

Defeat at the camps: 4,000 retreated, but that's the number at the start, not the one arriving at the Golden Tooth. And these survivors are the backbone of Staffords army at Oxcross.

PoWs aren't exactly a Westerosi custom, and these guys got really bad PR. Most of them were probably executed, they are never mentioned again.

Defeat at Oxcross: 5,000 are to many. Not with the story the Lannisters tell of it and Daven not posing any threat to Robb, or the Karstarks, or the Mormonts, or the Umbers, who act independently from each other in small groups 1,000-2,000 strong at best.

After Blackwater: 15,000 is a very, very generous estimate. Don't forget these guys had a battle against Bolton, lost a battle at the Fords, lost a battle at Harrenhal, lost the Bloody Mummers, lost Vargo Hoat, left Gregor Clegane, fought in enemy country for two years.

What is left in KL after Tywins funeral is explicitly told: zero. It was one hundred in Game with Cersei, but now it's exactly zero.

A small force under Jaime: 250 men, explicitly told as "half of these (500) men were Westermen)

A small force under Daven: <1000. "Ryman Frey had twice as much" (paraphrasing).

Gregor Clegane's former lot: somewhere in the two digits, give or take.

Tywin's honor guard of 500 men, split between Darry, Casterly Rock or returned to KL with Kevan in Dance.

2,000 men to Dragonstone, losing 1,000 men in Loras' attack. It would be the Lannister soldiers, not the Redwyne sailors that suffered in the assault.

Leaving ~3,000 under arms.

I wouldn't be so quick to discredit Dany's army. She has 6,000 unsullied who are possibly the best infantry in the world.. Also I would put her Freedmen companies at closer to 10 - 12 k troops, they are being trained personally by the Unsullied which leads me to believe that they will be tough. Also I believe when all is done, she will have most of the sell sword companies at Mereen which is probably close to 10k. Those along with 20k Dothraki and Barristan's knights, I think she will have a very tough force. (this isn't even including dragons)

Also with the North, I think we have to take into consideration the wildling forces who I believe will join the Northern cause under the new King in the North (Jon).

Time for graphic illustration:

Unsullied: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wellingtons33rd.jpg

Westeris: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Firing_M1A1_tank_in_Djibouti.jpg

[MDT]

What makes you say that? Jon was named Robb's heir in his will making him the King in the North, when Rickon comes back he will be Jon's heir, etc.

Seriously, Jon more than anybode else has better things to do than to declare himself king of the north and fight for northern independence at the moment.

If Stannis dies at Winterfell it might be different but I don't expect him to die yet and as long as he lives Jon will priorize a united front angainst the Others.

[Free Northman]

Mr Motte

I'm glad you got that little rant off your chest. You'll note we're making some predictions for Winds of Winter, including a lot of events that are yet to take place.

I'll leave it at that, other than saying let's see who turns out to be right on this little matter.

[Artos Stark]

Jon is LC of the Night's Watch, and so far does not even know about Robb's will. He wears no crown, and no men are sworn to him. The North is not a separate Kingdom, and has a Warden, not a King. Jon is a bastard in the eyes of the realm, and a man of the Night's Watch.

This is the way it is. It might change, but as of now, King in the North is a worthless title that no one holds.

Those things mean nothing at this point, Jon was on his way to join the fight before he was attacked. You don't think that Robb's will releasing him from the NW and making him King means anything to anyone in the North? Don't kid yourself, Jon will be leading the Northern force very soon and even if he doesn't leave the NW in the end, there is always Rickon who isn another heir of Robb's making him King in the North.

The crown has said that the North is not an independent Kingdom and has a Warden (Bolton). Those things mean nothing to the North who still see the Starks as King in the North as said in DWD (the only King they know is a Stark). None of those thing is stopping Jon from being King in the North or Rickon for that matter.

The crown has no way of enforcing the things they have set in place as we will see in the next book with their "warden" being overthrown and the Starks returning. The crown's control of the North is about as real as Tommen being a Baratheon

[Artos Stark]

Seriously, Jon more than anybode else has better things to do than to declare himself king of the north and fight for northern independence at the moment.

If Stannis dies at Winterfell it might be different but I don't expect him to die yet and as long as he lives Jon will priorize a united front angainst the Others.

Jon isn't declaring himself anything, he was named Robb's heir by Robb and the Northern lords and released from his NW duties. Also before he even knew about the will, Jon was headed South to Winterfell to fight against the Boltons and Freys, then he was attacked.

Stannis is not the King and certainly not the King in the North, even the Northmen have said that the only King they recognize is a Stark. The North has an alliance with Stannis and honestly are using his name for their gain and keeping their hostages alive.

Again Jon was headed to join the fight when he was attacked. A fight against the others is coming but there are other fights to happen first and Jon knows this.

[Fat Mac]

Mr Motte

I'm glad you got that little rant off your chest. You'll note we're making some predictions for Winds of Winter, including a lot of events that are yet to take place.

I'll leave it at that, other than saying let's see who turns out to be right on this little matter.

Haha not so much a rant... either way I'm not saying Jon will never be King in the North, I was merely saying he isn't yet. In the name of speculation of course he could be.

Those things mean nothing at this point, Jon was on his way to join the fight before he was attacked. You don't think that Robb's will releasing him from the NW and making him King means anything to anyone in the North? Don't kid yourself, Jon will be leading the Northern force very soon and even if he doesn't leave the NW in the end, there is always Rickon who isn another heir of Robb's making him King in the North.

The crown has said that the North is not an independent Kingdom and has a Warden (Bolton). Those things mean nothing to the North who still see the Starks as King in the North as said in DWD (the only King they know is a Stark). None of those thing is stopping Jon from being King in the North or Rickon for that matter.

The crown has no way of enforcing the things they have set in place as we will see in the next book with their "warden" being overthrown and the Starks returning. The crown's control of the North is about as real as Tommen being a Baratheon

But as of yet, the North is not a separate Kingdom. To technically become a separate kingdom once again, the Lords must all break their allegience to the crown again. Of course their allegience after Robb died was in name only, usually for the sake of family members. But official allegience nontheless. The majority technically recognize the Baratheon King Tommen, not King Jon, no matter what they actually think or feel.

[Ser Ennepe]

Time for graphic illustration:

Unsullied: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wellingtons33rd.jpg

Westeris: http://en.wikipedia....in_Djibouti.jpg

Damn you Blue, you make me miss the likes even more :lmao: