Petyr Baelish sphere of influence

[Blackfish Tully]

Entirely possible too. We've seen how Varys handles dangerous variables, yet he's practically given Littlefinger free reign. Whenever he hints at one of Baelish's doings, like when speaking with Tyrion, or Ned about Jon Arryn's squire being the murderer, he doesn't technically -lie- but he always speaks in a matter that can be misconstrued very easily, and is a misdirection.

It's also rather odd that in spite of his chat with Illyrio, where he specifically cites Baelish as an agent of chaos, and 'the second most devious person in the Seven Kingdoms' later when he speaks with Ned in the Black Cells, Varys has never taken any real 'crossbow to the face' action as he did with Kevan. Littllefinger isn't highborn, and he's renown for his business dealings in less savy industries, it would be a simple matter to try to have him killed and pin it on a deal gone wrong. Likewise, Littlefinger felt it necessary to get rid of Jon Arryn, but he never got rid of Varys? Even when he seems -distinctly- aware of the eunich's endless flow of spies within the Red Keep, listening to his every word and reading his every letter?

They're certainly enabling each other in some way.

I think that Varys and Littlefinger were engaged in a Cold War. Neither one was ready to make a move against the other because they were not sure of the outcome and they did not want to start anything until they were ready. They are master chess players and you never make a move in chess unless you are sure you know how it will affect your plans.

[Blackfish Tully]

1. Lyn Cobray is set in the Vale to be his "inside man" in the potential schemes of the Vale lords against him. It is important for this role to stay put and not risk to be outed.

2. Littlefinger has a lot of resources but they are can't be unlimited. He needs them all to secure the Vale which is not a given yet. Such a plan would be a waste of time and money.

3. In the (unlikely, IMO) actualization of such a scenario, Bronze Yohn is more likely to be credited, as he would be the one commanding the army.

1. Lyn Cordray was just the example I used, it could be anybody.

2. We have no idea what his resources are and taking the Twins would be monster payday in land and wealth , it would be well worth the investment.

3. Littlefinger would make sure that before he signed off on this alliance the Riverlords bent the knee and the Vale Lords would sign off on him being Lord Protector until Robert Arryn reaches adulthood.

I came up with this plan in like 5 minutes so I'm sure there are holes but it shows that it is not so unbelievable that Littlefinger could come up with a way to bring the Riverlands and Vale together.

[Fender]

<snip>

And the whole Sansa's going to kill him cause shes gonna find out he betrayed Ned thing I don't buy it. Firstly the only reason Sansa is alive right now is because of Petyr Baelish. Either because of affection for her mother or Baelish recognizing Sansa's value he orchestrated not only Joffs demise but her rescue. I think she recognizes this. Secondly who is going to tell her that Baelish betrayed her father? Everyone who was there who would tell her is either dead, thousands of miles away from her, wants her dead so she'ld never talk to them anyways. Is some random goldcloak deserter going to tell her? The only person who is alive and even possibly has the motive to tell her is Barristan Selmy, who is currently stuck in the middle of bumfuck Meereen. I suppose Varys could as well but the question remains why would she believe him over Petyr who demonstrably saved her life.

Littlefinger killed Ser Dontos, and told Sansa that Dontos was working for him all along. Sansa might eventually understand that the reason it became known that the Tyrells were planning on sending her off to Highgarden to marry Willas was because Dontos told someone, and that the only logical person he could've reasonably told this to would have been his employer. Of course, then it opens up the door for Baelish to blame Varys and his little birds for hearing and sharing their conversation, but by that time, if Sansa has gotten this far already in her line of thinking, this excuse wouldn't erase all of her suspicion. And also, if Baelish shows too much knowledge for a single moment, such as referring offhandedly to her conversation with Dontos (showing that he knew she told someone at that specific moment), she will know that he was involved, and become all the more wary.

What I'm saying is this; yes, Littlefinger saved her life by removing her from King's Landing. But it's irrefutable that he was a large part of the reason why Sansa was in such a situation to begin with, and not safely whisked away by other people like she had planned with Margaery. It could actually be likely that Sansa understands this and recognizes the traces of Littlefinger's involvement. The betrayal of her father is not the only way in which Littlefinger changed Sansa's fortunes; there were many others, and they don't all require witnesses to testify against him for the traces to be found. So my point is that Sansa might start to distance herself from Littlefinger quite soon, whatever it is that he's planned for her, and stop being so dependent on him.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

1. Lyn Cordray was just the example I used, it could be anybody.

2. We have no idea what his resources are and taking the Twins would be monster payday in land and wealth , it would be well worth the investment.

3. Littlefinger would make sure that before he signed off on this alliance the Riverlords bent the knee and the Vale Lords would sign off on him being Lord Protector until Robert Arryn reaches adulthood.

I came up with this plan in like 5 minutes so I'm sure there are holes but it shows that it is not so unbelievable that Littlefinger could come up with a way to bring the Riverlands and Vale together.

There. Point 3 (in its general sense) is the problem. It requires them to bent the knee before they are offered the reason to bent the knee... See the contradiction?

Furthermore, why on earth would the Vale lords sign something like that in order to allow him use their own armies? Littlefinger is smart, but it doesn't mean that everyone else is stupid.

[Blackfish Tully]

There. Point 3 (in its general sense) is the problem. It requires them to bent the knee before they are offered the reason to bent the knee... See the contradiction?

Furthermore, why on earth would the Vale lords sign something like that in order to allow him use their own armies? Littlefinger is smart, but it doesn't mean that everyone else is stupid.

Why would Littlefinger allow the alliance to go on without the Riverlords bending the knee and why would the Riverlords have a problem bending the knee to Littlefinger, he is after all the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands.

One other point I want to make is that Littlefingers policy as Master of Coin was that he would never let gold sit in the treasury but would always keep it working to produce more gold but we are to believe that he is the High Lord of one of the Seven Kingdoms and he is going to just completely ignore it and not try to get it under control. It just dosen't make sense to me. If he does not make his claim on the Riverlands the Tyrells and Lannisters may decide to award them to somebody else.

[Kyoti]

First of all let me link this because it is important to the point I intend to make:

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/XanatosSpeedChess

For anyone halfway decent at improv this is a fairly easy game to play, and it is Littlefinger to the T. Do any of you LF supporters actually note that nearly everything he claims responsibility for is after the fact? He claims responsibility for the Tyrell alliance; could be true, the Tyrells seem willing enough to go along with the story, but no one truly knows what went down. He claims that the Purple Wedding was his brainchild; maybe, but the only people who could verify the fact are safely in KL while he is on a ship to The Fingers. He claims Ser Dontos was always his man; could be, too bad he is dead an can't verify that fact, could be that LF just found out about him when Dontos was looking for a ship (This is dangerously close to Gambit Roulette http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GambitRoulette because how could LF possibly know that Dontos would be drunk AND that Sansa would save him AND that Joff would spare him AND that he would last long enough to be useful). The same is true for Corbury; only after he is gone AND Sansa says something does LF claim him as well; could be he just pulled that out his ass on the spot to make himself seem in control.

That's just four examples off the top of my head and 3/4ths can just as easily be attributed to quick thinking after the fact as they can to some brilliant plan he dreamed up years in advance. I actually like LF as a character. He is a fantastic player, and you can't help but enjoy his rise to power. I just can't abide this deep undying love of his Batman/Xanatos-esque super-planning when it is 100% equally plausible that he took credit for things that just happened to happen all on their own, after the fact, when there are zero sources to refute his claims. To me it is actually MORE impressive that he has risen and continues to gather power based completely on his ability to BS.

I am the first one to admit that LF could turn out to be a frigging super-genius which, if true, is destined to sit the Iron Throne. It would just be nice if everyone squeeing all over him would admit that it is equally possible that he just completely full of shit and got to where he is based on his ability to think on his feet.

[Fender]

First of all let me link this because it is important to the point I intend to make:

http://tvtropes.org/...natosSpeedChess

For anyone halfway decent at improv this is a fairly easy game to play, and it is Littlefinger to the T. Do any of you LF supporters actually note that nearly everything he claims responsibility for is after the fact? He claims responsibility for the Tyrell alliance; could be true, the Tyrells seem willing enough to go along with the story, but no one truly knows what went down. He claims that the Purple Wedding was his brainchild; maybe, but the only people who could verify the fact are safely in KL while he is on a ship to The Fingers. He claims Ser Dontos was always his man; could be, too bad he is dead an can't verify that fact, could be that LF just found out about him when Dontos was looking for a ship (This is dangerously close to Gambit Roulette http://tvtropes.org/.../GambitRoulette because how could LF possibly know that Dontos would be drunk AND that Sansa would save him AND that Joff would spare him AND that he would last long enough to be useful). The same is true for Corbury; only after he is gone AND Sansa says something does LF claim him as well; could be he just pulled that out his ass on the spot to make himself seem in control.

That's just four examples off the top of my head and 3/4ths can just as easily be attributed to quick thinking after the fact as they can to some brilliant plan he dreamed up years in advance. I actually like LF as a character. He is a fantastic player, and you can't help but enjoy his rise to power. I just can't abide this deep undying love of his Batman/Xanatos-esque super-planning when it is 100% equally plausible that he took credit for things that just happened to happen all on their own, after the fact, when there are zero sources to refute his claims. To me it is actually MORE impressive that he has risen and continues to gather power based completely on his ability to BS.

I am the first one to admit that LF could turn out to be a frigging super-genius which, if true, is destined to sit the Iron Throne. It would just be nice if everyone squeeing all over him would admit that it is equally possible that he just completely full of shit and got to where he is based on his ability to think on his feet.

About the Ser Dontos thing, I'm fairly sure that he came to Littlefinger's employ only after he became the Fool, giving Littlefinger another pawn to play around with as he wishes. It also helps that this new tool is extremely grateful to Littlefinger's own target, since he'd do anything that he believes is in her interest. However, as you correctly pointed out, he might have been acting independently in the beginning, and only teamed up with Littlefinger at a later time. In this specific case, I doubt it, since Dontos is the one who foiled the plan to run off to Highgarden, so we know he was in his employ by then. But otherwise, I think that you brought up a very good point, one that I'd never considered. If so, then Baelish is also extremely knowledgeable in techniques of manipulation. (For example, Sansa is now utterly convinced that he hired Corbray. If Littlefinger had just come out and said it himself, she might have had some doubts. But since she came up with the explanation herself, then was given instant gratification in the guise of Littlefinger's approval and acquiescence, she is completely convinced. Not many people can do this play properly.)

[Blackfish Tully]

First of all let me link this because it is important to the point I intend to make:

http://tvtropes.org/...natosSpeedChess

For anyone halfway decent at improv this is a fairly easy game to play, and it is Littlefinger to the T. Do any of you LF supporters actually note that nearly everything he claims responsibility for is after the fact? He claims responsibility for the Tyrell alliance; could be true, the Tyrells seem willing enough to go along with the story, but no one truly knows what went down. He claims that the Purple Wedding was his brainchild; maybe, but the only people who could verify the fact are safely in KL while he is on a ship to The Fingers. He claims Ser Dontos was always his man; could be, too bad he is dead an can't verify that fact, could be that LF just found out about him when Dontos was looking for a ship (This is dangerously close to Gambit Roulette http://tvtropes.org/.../GambitRoulette because how could LF possibly know that Dontos would be drunk AND that Sansa would save him AND that Joff would spare him AND that he would last long enough to be useful). The same is true for Corbury; only after he is gone AND Sansa says something does LF claim him as well; could be he just pulled that out his ass on the spot to make himself seem in control.

That's just four examples off the top of my head and 3/4ths can just as easily be attributed to quick thinking after the fact as they can to some brilliant plan he dreamed up years in advance. I actually like LF as a character. He is a fantastic player, and you can't help but enjoy his rise to power. I just can't abide this deep undying love of his Batman/Xanatos-esque super-planning when it is 100% equally plausible that he took credit for things that just happened to happen all on their own, after the fact, when there are zero sources to refute his claims. To me it is actually MORE impressive that he has risen and continues to gather power based completely on his ability to BS.

I am the first one to admit that LF could turn out to be a frigging super-genius which, if true, is destined to sit the Iron Throne. It would just be nice if everyone squeeing all over him would admit that it is equally possible that he just completely full of shit and got to where he is based on his ability to think on his feet.

So nobody knows whether or not Littlefinger brought about the Tyrell and Lannisters alliance? I would think that the Tyrells and Lannisters would know and if he did nothing to bring about the alliance why would they give him Harrenhall and the Riverlands.

As for Sansa , it would be hard to me to believe that it was a coincidence that he happened to be floating in a boat outside of Kings Landing when he supposed to be hundreds a miles away in the Vale.

As for Lyn Cordray , he just happened to do the one thing that would give Littlefinger the advantage over the Lords Declarent.

So Littlefinger is either a very good player in the game or the luckiest person in the world.

[Fender]

So nobody knows whether or not Littlefinger brought about the Tyrell and Lannisters alliance? I would think that the Tyrells and Lannisters would know and if he did nothing to bring about the alliance why would they give him Harrenhall and the Riverlands.

As for Sansa , it would be hard to me to believe that it was a coincidence that he happened to be floating in a boat outside of Kings Landing when he supposed to be hundreds a miles away in the Vale.

As for Lyn Cordray , he just happened to do the one thing that would give Littlefinger the advantage over the Lords Declarent.

So Littlefinger is either a very good player in the game or the luckiest person in the world.

The point of the post was not necessarily that these specific occurrences were simply coincidences, but rather simply raising the possibility that Littlefinger is more of a master opportunist and manipulator than some mastermind who knew exactly how everything would turn out years in advance. I think that that's hard to argue with. He constantly tricks people into thinking that he either has much less control than he does (as he did with Eddard), or that he is much more powerful that he truly is (as he might have done with Sansa), depending on the situation. So as much as he can deny having involvement in certain events, it's very likely that he could claim credit for something that he did not do. In Sansa's case, as long as she believes the man to be in control and that she could learn from him, she will never try to break away. So claiming credit for things he had no control over is definitely in his advantage, especially when there is no one to deny his claim.

[Kyoti]

1 So nobody knows whether or not Littlefinger brought about the Tyrell and Lannisters alliance? I would think that the Tyrells and Lannisters would know and if he did nothing to bring about the alliance why would they give him Harrenhall and the Riverlands.

2 As for Sansa , it would be hard to me to believe that it was a coincidence that he happened to be floating in a boat outside of Kings Landing when he supposed to be hundreds a miles away in the Vale.

3 As for Lyn Cordray , he just happened to do the one thing that would give Littlefinger the advantage over the Lords Declarent.

4 So Littlefinger is either a very good player in the game or the luckiest person in the world.

Not sure why I even try with you, but I will bite anyway:

1) I clearly said was likely.

2) Him being there at the end means that he managed to buy off Dontos exactly a boat ride worth of time before hand. Not months, not years, not before he stumbled drunk into Joff's nameday tourney. Again, there is no text other than LF's word that he had Dontos in the bag from the beginning.

3) I fail to see how it is any more plausible that LF had a paid informant hundreds of miles away in the isolated Vale who he just happened to cook up and elaborate scheme with then it is that he simpley made the best out of a bad situation. Again, nothing but LF's word to go on. The word of a self proclaimed untrustworthy, proven liar.

4) No. Those are not the only two options. He is a master opportunist. Some of his success is from luck, some is from thinking on his feet, and most is from making the best of other people's misfortune.

Again, the guys is not either the greatest player in the history of game playing, or a slug to be squashed by the nearest boot. He is a pretty interesting tertiary character used by a great writer to fulfill some pretty basic needs without huge daus ex machina or huge plot armor. But he's not this god-like hero you and some others make him out to be. You're allowed to have him as your favorite character, no one's stopping you or saying you're wrong, but you can't make anyone else agree with your unrealistic view of him.

[Ordos]

Whoa! I had a LOT to read through. Firstly, let me say thanks for pointing out that Littlefinger should already have connections/allies outside King's Landing, the Vale and the Riverlands because of his position of Master of Coin. These connections could be foundations for making future power grabs easier.

I don't pretend to know what Littlefinger's next exact move will be. I can only make an educated guess as to what the nature of it will be. Manipulation for wealth or titles, recruiting more pawns for his schemes, setting people against each other or an outright power grab.

I am in the belief that should Littlefinger not seek to sit on the Iron Throne, it means he has no end goal. Only that his schemes continue to bear fruit. His harvest so far: becoming overlord of the Riverlands and Lord Protector of the Vale. His motive (not goal) is gaining power with his own unique methods.

I don't know what he will do when circumstances change (Dany and the Dragons, winter and the Others). He will either have to come up with entirely new schemes, or set his power grabbing games aside and prepare to directly fight or flee.

Let me just clarify what I meant in my first post about a trump card. What I mean is how is he going to get power or the beginnings of power from those at the very top (instead of lesser lords). For forming an alliance between the Iron Throne and the Tyrells, he was awarded Over-lordship of the Riverlands which in turn gave him the position to marry Lysa. After killing Lysa he gained governance of the Vale. He will take the North by revealing his powerful card that card being Sansa the heir to Winterfell. So where next and how? If it is the Reach for example, he will need to convince the Tyrells somehow to do his bidding. But how?

Edit: forgot to add: wouldn't it be ironic should Stannis win the battle for Winterfell and Sansa will have to fight Stannis as her father supported Stannis' claim to the Throne?

[Blackfish Tully]

Not sure why I even try with you, but I will bite anyway:

1) I clearly said was likely.

2) Him being there at the end means that he managed to buy off Dontos exactly a boat ride worth of time before hand. Not months, not years, not before he stumbled drunk into Joff's nameday tourney. Again, there is no text other than LF's word that he had Dontos in the bag from the beginning.

3) I fail to see how it is any more plausible that LF had a paid informant hundreds of miles away in the isolated Vale who he just happened to cook up and elaborate scheme with then it is that he simpley made the best out of a bad situation. Again, nothing but LF's word to go on. The word of a self proclaimed untrustworthy, proven liar.

4) No. Those are not the only two options. He is a master opportunist. Some of his success is from luck, some is from thinking on his feet, and most is from making the best of other people's misfortune.

Again, the guys is not either the greatest player in the history of game playing, or a slug to be squashed by the nearest boot. He is a pretty interesting tertiary character used by a great writer to fulfill some pretty basic needs without huge daus ex machina or huge plot armor. But he's not this god-like hero you and some others make him out to be. You're allowed to have him as your favorite character, no one's stopping you or saying you're wrong, but you can't make anyone else agree with your unrealistic view of him.

Littlefinger could be killed on the first chapter of the next book and I would not care a bit as long as it is a good story. I have no favorite characters and if I did it certainly would not be Littlefinger . I just comment on what I remember from the text of the story and if I feel somebody has written something that does not agree with what I remember from that text I am going to comment on it . I'm sorry if that bothers you but I cannot help that.