Was Littlefinger behind Ned's execution and Bran's murder attempt?

[The Fourth Head]

Ok, firstly, my apologies if this has been discussed before, and my apologies for not having all the facts clear in my mind.

What are people's thoughts on the following 2 theories?

1) Littlefinger planted the idea of beheading Ned in Joffrey's mind and acted as a broker between Joffrey, Slynt and Payne

Reasoning:

Joffrey's decision apparently came out of the blue on first reading, but increasingly, from ACOK onwards, we begin to realise it didn't and start assuming/filling in the gaps for ourselves.

a ) Slynt hints to Tyrion that he knew in advance what Joffrey would do- suggesting this was premeditated on Joffrey's part and not merely an impulsive act to please the crowd as Tyrion had previously assumed. Why would GRRM bother to include that detail and leave it up in the air?

b ) What Joffrey did was, in effect, treason as his mother was Queen Regent. It was a major piece of acting out, especially if it was premeditated. He knew what Cercei wanted, knew it could have major consequences, but still went against her. Not implausible, as he is was a wilful cruel boy, but perhaps not the kind of thing he would have thought of by himself, and kept a secret. It seems quite a length to go to.

c ) Slynt counts LF and Joffrey as his friends at court. He was clearly in LF's pocket and does whatever LF pays him to do. LF seems a likely suspect too.

d ) Motive. It worked out perfectly for LF. Who benefitted the most? Joffrey got to satisfy his ego and bloodlust, but in one stroke, LF saw Catelyn's husband executed and peace between the Starks and Lannisters rendered impossible. LF benefitted the most. Just as Varys was whispering in Cercei's and Ned's ears to keep peace (for those not in the know, who would have thought Ned would denouce his honour?) so LF may just as easily have been whispering in Joffrey's to prove himself a strong king and not a weak hearted woman, in order to cement the war he started.

e ) Who is more likely to have the initiative to secretly summon Payne and Slynt, to inform them of plans to kill Ned, to ensure their obedience when the moment comes, and to persuade them to keep his plans secret from the Queen Regent? 12 Year old Joffrey, or Littefinger? The Queen Regent outranked Joffrey, so technically, if it was premeditated, it was treason. Im sure a little persuasion from LF would have helped calm Slynt's and Payne's concerns. Assuming Joffrey came up with the idea, and was in cahoots with Slynt and Payne and held a little premeditated clandestine meeting without LF's involvement is possible, but increasingly unlikely as more revelations about LF's meddling come to light. Why would Joffrey go to so much effort to thwart the Queen and satisfy his ego?

f ) The precise details surrounding the surprise execution of Lord Eddard Stark- a major character- is still ambiguous. We are meant to assume a meeting took place, or orders were given to Slynt/Payne, and that Joffrey, Slynt and Payne were acting alone on Joffrey's initiative, but it is an assumption- nothing more, and the only one with a tongue left to confirm this this was exactly the reason why the hero was unexpectedly executed with massive consequences is....well, no-one, except perhaps LF? Given we all assumed initially that Cercei was behind Jon Aryn's death, and probably behind Bran's assassination attempt too, it's safe to say assumptions are a risky business.

2) Littlefinger was behind the assassination attempt on Bran by planting the idea in the mind of Joffrey, enabled, somehow, through LF's mysterious "rider"

Ok- so I don't have all the answers here, but my motive for challenging the assumed explanation and implicating LF is on several levels.

a ) I don't find Tyrion's explanation satisfactory. His idea is that Joffrey, aged 12, went looking for a knife to have Bran killed in his sleep and just so happened to find Littlefinger's knife out of thousands. Tyrion thought it was an attempt, somehow to please his father, and that he cared that the murder was done with a knife of his choosing rather than allowing the catspaw to use his own, yet didn't want to pick a knife that would come back to him incase the murder was bungled so selected a knife that had no significance for him. This just seems strange.

My issue with this is: How could it possibly further his position in the eyes of his father, compelled as he was, to keep it a secret? What sadistic pleasure could he derive from sending someone else to do a cruel act when he wouldn't be around to see it and where he would struggle to gain any recognition for it? The implication that he confessed to Robert what he had done, and that Robert kept it a secret from Ned is huge, and deeply improbable. Even Cercei doesn't seem to know who did it so any credit for his act seems nonexistent. It seems a risky, provocative act to satisfy a really weak motive to go to such lengths and although it doesn't seem too out of character, it doesn't feel right, and relies on the improbable assumption that Joffrey happened to pick LF's knife at random from hundreds.

Yet again, the one with the best motive to kill Bran was Littlefinger. Of the two great mysteries- Jon Aryn and Bran, only one mystery has been formally wrapped up through Lysa's confession. We only have Tyrion's theory to go on in the Bran incident, and Tyrion clearly has no clue the full extent of LF's ambition and scheming as we, the readers do. It is constantly stressed in GOT "why would anyone want to kill Bran?" and "to start a war" seems a far better explanation than "to try and please father somehow because I'm a brain-dead sadist" If LF was behind it, it would very much fit his MO of understanding what motivates people, and using them as pawns to serve his own ends. It would also serve as a neat parallel in the sense that both mysteries seem to lead to Cercei's door, neither act was done directly on LF's orders, but both ideas were his.

The biggest issue is how. We now know that he persuaded Lysa to write a letter to WF lying about Lannister involvement in Aryn's death which coincided perfectly with the royal visit. Where did that letter come from? A mysterious rider- not a raven, suggesting that from this moment on, LF had someone in WF already doing his or Lysa's bidding. It seems quite a coincidence that LF's knife was randomly selected and used to commit yet another inflammatory act that helped provoke a war we all know he took great efforts to provoke. How sweet that his own knife was the one used to provoke a war he had taken such extreme measures to provoke, and to get away with it on account of having being in KL at the time? What if getting the catspaw to use LF's knife was LF's idea of amusement? why not have the crown prince arm his own catspaw with his own knife to commit an act that served his purposes and not Joffreys? ho ho.

So, I guess Im building a case against LF, in terms of him being the chief architect of chaos.

- He used Lysa's love for him and desire to have him as a motive to persuade her to kill Jon Aryn.

- He used Joffrey's sadistic streak to encourage him to assassinate Bran

- He used Joffrey's sadistic streak to encourage him to execute Ned

In all three cases, they seem to be startlingly cruel and unexpected acts. Furthermore, LF ties up his loose ends by helping to assassinate Joffrey and shoving Lysa out of a window. LF cannot properly explain to Sansa why he wanted Joffrey killed because it would disclose his role in Bran's murder attempt and Ned's execution. Sadly, Lysa spilled the beans on the Jon Aryn mystery, and I suspect that may be just the tip of the iceberg.

So, what do you guys think? I'm surely not the first person to come up with these theories, but I would be very grateful for some constructive feedback.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1. Yes. That's the established theory. Just one correction: It was no treason. Joffrey outranks Cersei.

2. No. LF himself was thousands of miles away while it happened. And even if he planted a spy there, he'd needed prophetic visions to instruct him half a year in advance.

[therealbando]

1. Yes. That's the established theory. Just one correction: It was no treason. Joffrey outranks Cersei.

2. No. LF himself was thousands of miles away while it happened. And even if he planted a spy there, he'd needed prophetic visions to instruct him half a year in advance.

What he said

[The Fourth Head]

1. Yes. That's the established theory. Just one correction: It was no treason. Joffrey outranks Cersei.

lol. And I thought I was being original!

[Lord Damian]

This sets up Littlefinger to be, as I am beginning to realize, one the biggest villains in GRRM's world. With the Others asside. Littlefinger has arranged the death of two Wardens/hands of the king, a hand in KingJoff's death (throught the Tyrells, Dontos etc) Tywin died be Tyrion, not him so I do not blame that on him unless Shae was working for him (like on the tv show, she betrayed Ros to Littlefinger). Baelish is simply, evil and slimy and will stop at nothing to get what he wants, what that exactly is in the end is still unknown.

[The Fourth Head]

2. No. LF himself was thousands of miles away while it happened. And even if he planted a spy there, he'd needed prophetic visions to instruct him half a year in advance.

And yet, once again Joffrey apparently commits a stupid and sadistic act that serves LF's purposes far better than his own, and with LF's own knife to boot.

Are you satisfied that Tyrion's theory is correct and that it is merely a coincidence that Joffrey picked LF's knife from hundreds or do you have your own theory? do you think it is case closed?

Bran was comatosed for weeks- plenty of time for a raven to fly to the capital, for word to reach LF via Varys of Bran's "unfortunate" fall and for LF to spot the opportunity, use a little imagination, devise a plan and to communicate it via raven to either one of his spies or to Joffrey directly. Perhaps to avoid suspicion he could have sent a raven to the Eyrie, to be forwarded on by Lysa to "her rider".

Why else would someone try and kill a boy in a coma who fell out of a window if not to keep him quiet? That is the assumption everyone comes to without LF's help. What he may or may not have seen wouldn't matter as it was still enough to arouse deep mistrust and suspicion in the Starks. Who else would make better suspects than the shady Lannisters who had poor history with the Starks, and who had apparently just killed Ned Stark's beloved foster father and brother in law? It wouldn't matter whether Bran had actually seen anything or not. The fact is, there WAS a secret the Lannisters were trying to keep quiet and on discovering this fact, it made the idea seem all the more plausible.

LF was already stirring up trouble at this point and the Starks and Lannisters were his target- as indicated by Lysa's inflammatory letter. I concede that it is unlikely LF lost his knife deliberately half a year before the trip to Winterfell. Whilst he could have predicted that by killing Jon, Robert would ask Ned to be the Hand, he could not have assumed Robert would take the knife with him to WF. I agree, that is not likely, and I can allow for the possibility that the Knife was there by chance- just as Bran found himself in a coma by chance. From there, LF could have devised a plan.

LF clearly enjoyed playing with the knife and I think it's very plausible he wanted it back. He could have persuaded Joffrey via messenger or raven to pick it out to give to his catspaw- with the true significance of the knife being LF's private motives rather than Joffrey's. If his catspaw succeeded in killing Bran, then the Lannisters would fall under suspicion and his Catspaw would be free to return LF's knife to him- poetic. If the Catspaw failed, then LF would still be so far removed from suspicion that the knife alone would not be enough evidence to implicate him. Robert won the knife. LF was in KL. He would still be free to implicate others.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Any raven would have to bypass Maester Pycelle, Maester Luwin and either Robert or Ned. And Joffrey would be required to read between the lines and be swayed. Anybody else would never see a letter.

Any courier would have a hell of a ride, if he could even make it in time. The travel time from KL to Winterfell is literally months.

Of course, it suited LF. But time, distance and opportunity all speak against it.

[danm_999]

And yet, once again Joffrey apparently commits a stupid and sadistic act that serves LF's purposes far better than his own, and with LF's own knife to boot.

Are you satisfied that Tyrion's theory is correct and that it is merely a coincidence that Joffrey picked LF's knife from hundreds or do you have your own theory?

It was never Littlefinger's knife. Littlefinger lied about it being a knife he lost in a bet to Tyrion simply to implicate Tyrion.

[BreastplateWithNipples]

And yet, once again Joffrey apparently commits a stupid and sadistic act that serves LF's purposes far better than his own, and with LF's own knife to boot.

Are you satisfied that Tyrion's theory is correct and that it is merely a coincidence that Joffrey picked LF's knife from hundreds or do you have your own theory?

Bran was comatosed for weeks- plenty of time for a raven to fly to the capital, for word to reach LF via Varys of Bran's "unfortunate" fall and for LF to spot the opportunity, devise a plan and to communicate it by raven to either one of his spies or to Joffrey directly. On discovering Jamie and Cercei's little secret, everyone's assumption is that Bran spotted them at it, was pushed rather than fell, and that having been comatosed rather than dying, the Lannisters were trying to silence Bran. A perfectly rational and predictable assumption that we all thought, and which someone with a little imagination and prior history in imaginitative framing could come up with. Why else would you try and kill a boy in a coma who fell out of a window? Why else would someone want to kill Jon Aryn? It is so seemingly obvious that LF doesn't need to help people along- even the Starks are capable of coming up with this theory all by themselves.

LF was already stirring up trouble at this point and the Starks and Lannisters were his target- as indicated by Lysa's inflammatory letter. I concede that it is unlikely LF lost his knife deliberately half a year before the trip to Winterfell. He could have predicted that by killing Jon, Robert would ask Ned to be the Hand, but assuming Robert would take the knife with him to WF or that it could play a role up there in stirring trouble? I agree, that is not likely.

However, he clearly enjoyed playing with the knife and I think it's very plausible he wanted it back. He could have persuaded Joffrey via messenger or raven to pick it out to give to his catspaw- with the true significance of the knife being LF's private motives rather than Joffrey's. If his catspaw succeeded in killing Bran, then the Lannisters would fall under suspicion and his Catspaw would be free to return LF's knife to him- poetic. If the Catspaw failed, then LF would still be so far removed from suspicion that the knife alone would not be enough evidence to implicate him. Robert won the knife. LF was in KL. He would still be free to implicate others.

It's true that it was exactly the sort of thing LF would have plotted for. But as others said... LF was thousands of miles away and had no way to be involved in the whole thing. There's no indication that LF maintained a correspondence by raven with Joffrey - it's also implausible because even ravens are not that fast (there was only a week or two between Bran's "accident" and the murder attempt, right?) and raven communication is not like email, it is quite laborious and involves expert personnel (maesters) and the chance that letters are lost.

The Bran assassination is, in hindsight, the weakest story part in the whole first three books. It's a huge mystery when you read it first, and a pivotal event that drives the Stark-Lannister conflict towards war, but looking back at it after ASOS or AFFC it really is a big plot hole. Unless one of the "master puppeteers" (LF / Varys / ...) has magical abilities there is no way this was anything other than just Joffrey being a dick, all on his own initiative.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

It was never Littlefinger's knife. Littlefinger lied about it being a knife he lost in a bet to Tyrion simply to implicate Tyrion.

It was LF's knife. But he lost it to Robert, not Tyrion.

[danm_999]

It was LF's knife. But he lost it to Robert, not Tyrion.

Where is this established though? We know it belonged to Robert, but the only person who claims it once belonged to Littlefinger is Littlefinger, and as we've covered, he's not exactly a reliable source when you're looking for the truth.

[Rhaegarsjoy]

It was LF's knife. But he lost it to Robert, not Tyrion.

You would believe him more IF he says it was mine but I lost it, then if he said I think I saw Robert going hunting with that exact knife once. LF stands for lying fucker.

[joluoto]

LF manipulating Joffrey to have Ned executed: yes. I think that's what happened. The Bran thing however was Joffrey all on his own. Littlefinger was in King's Landing and had no chance to manipulate Joffrey in this matter.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Where is this established though? We know it belonged to Robert, but the only person who claims it once belonged to Littlefinger is Littlefinger, and as we've covered, he's not exactly a reliable source when you're looking for the truth.

Tyrion and Jaime. Once when Tyrion tried to convince Cat on their way to the Vale, later in his thoughts when he met LF, and Jaime confirms it when Cat drills him in Riverrun.

[The Fourth Head]

The Bran assassination is, in hindsight, the weakest story part in the whole first three books. It's a huge mystery when you read it first, and a pivotal event that drives the Stark-Lannister conflict towards war, but looking back at it after ASOS or AFFC it really is a big plot hole. Unless one of the "master puppeteers" (LF / Varys / ...) has magical abilities there is no way this was anything other than just Joffrey being a dick, all on his own initiative.

The royal visit remained for several days, possibly as long as 2 weeks after Bran's fall. After that, they made slow progress down the Kingsroad. I believe it was a 2 month journey. According to Mance Rayder, such was their slow progress on the way up, he had enough time to travel south from wherever he was (Thenn?) and join up with them south of WF. How much time passed before the royal departure from WF and the assassination attempt in unknown, but Catelyn had been mourning Bran for well over a month I think before the "fire"- by which point Bran had wasted away to nothing. That is more than enough time for a Raven to fly down to KL and back up again, and could explain why the attempt happened so long after Bran was pushed.

It was assumed that the catspaw stayed behind and had been in WF ever since the royal party departed. That is not certain at all.

There is no precedent that LF was in cahoots with Joffrey directly via Raven, true, but there was no precedent that Lysa would want to kill Aryn prior to that bombshell. The fact is KL were extremely well informed about the goings on- a point emphasised in Cat's and Ed's chapters. They knew long in advance about the incident on the Kingsroad. Where were they getting their information from if not by raven? There is still the mystery rider identity to clear up too- where had he come from? If a second rider went galloping out from KL to meet the royal party after learning of Bran's death, he had about a month to make the journey, stopping off to meet with Joffrey and get the knife off him. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that a single rider could make the same journey in under half the time it took for a massive consort complete with wheel-wagon that got stuck 6 times a day.

Otherwise, if LF had a spy looking after the Royal Party's ravens, a lickspittle go-between from LF to Joffrey, such a clandestine arrangement could have been very feasible indeed. A Kettleblack perhaps, or some such.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Who would send that raven? Who would receive it? Neither LF nor any catspaw he may have sent north.

[danm_999]

Tyrion and Jaime. Once when Tyrion tried to convince Cat on their way to the Vale, later in his thoughts when he met LF, and Jaime confirms it when Cat drills him in Riverrun.

None of these incidents ever confirm Littlefinger was the original owner the dagger. The first, Tyrion and Cat on the way to the Vale;

“The Starks do not murder men in their beds.”

“Nor do I,” he said. “I tell you again, I had no part in the attempt to kill your son.”

“The assassin was armed with your dagger.”

Tyrion felt the heat rise in him. “It was not my dagger,” he insisted. “How many times must I swear to that? Lady Stark, whatever you may believe of me, I am not a stupid man. Only a fool would arm a common footpad with his own blade.”

Just for a moment, he thought he saw a flicker of doubt in her eyes, but what she said was, “Why would Petyr lie to me?”

“Why does a bear shit in the woods?” he demanded. “Because it is his nature. Lying comes as easily as breathing to a man like Littlefinger.

You ought to know that, you of all people.”

She took a step toward him, her face tight. “And what does that mean, Lannister?”

Tyrion cocked his head. “Why, every man at court has heard him tell how he took your maidenhead, my lady.”

“That is a lie!” Catelyn Stark said.

“Oh, wicked little imp,” Marillion said, shocked.

Kurleket drew his dirk, a vicious piece of black iron. “At your word, m’lady, I’ll toss his lying tongue at your feet.” His pig eyes were wet with excitement at the prospect.

Catelyn Stark stared at Tyrion with a coldness on her face such as he had never seen. “Petyr Baelish loved me once. He was only a boy. His passion was a tragedy for all of us, but it was real, and pure, and nothing to be made mock of. He wanted my hand. That is the truth of the matter. You are truly an evil man, Lannister.”

“And you are truly a fool, Lady Stark. Littlefinger has never loved anyone but Littlefinger, and I promise you that it is not your hand that he boasts of, it’s those ripe breasts of yours, and that sweet mouth, and the heat between your legs.”

Kurleket grabbed a handful of hair and yanked his head back in a hard jerk, baring his throat. Tyrion felt the cold kiss of steel beneath his chin. “Shall I bleed him, my lady?”

“Kill me and the truth dies with me,” Tyrion gasped.

“Let him talk,” Catelyn Stark commanded.

Kurleket let go of Tyrion’s hair, reluctantly.

Tyrion took a deep breath. “How did Littlefinger tell you I came by this dagger of his? Answer me that.”

“You won it from him in a wager, during the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day.”

“When my brother Jaime was unhorsed by the Knight of Flowers, that was his story, no?”

“It was,” she admitted. A line creased her brow.

“Riders!”

Post skirmish;

“As I was saying before we were so rudely interrupted,” Tyrion began, “there is a serious flaw in Littlefinger’s fable. Whatever you may believe of me, Lady Stark, I promise you this—I never bet against my family.”

Zero indication Littlefinger lost the dagger to Robert.

The second, later in his thoughts when he met Littlefinger;

“That’s a handsome knife as well.”

“Is it?” There was mischief in Littlefinger’s eyes. He drew the knife and glanced at it casually, as if he had never seen it before. “Valyrian steel, and a dragonbone hilt. A trifle plain, though. It’s yours, if you would like it.”

“Mine?” Tyrion gave him a long look. “No. I think not. Never mine.” He knows, the insolent wretch. He knows and he knows that I know, and he thinks that I cannot touch him.

Again, zero indication Littlefinger was the dagger's original owner.

The third;

“Then why did the assassin have his dagger?”

“What dagger was this?”

“It was so long,” she said, holding her hands apart, “plain, but finely made, with a blade of Valyrian steel and a dragonbone hilt. Your brother won it from Lord Baelish at the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day.”

Lannister poured, drank, poured, and stared into his wine cup. “This wine seems to be improving as I drink it. Imagine that. I seem to remember that dagger, now that you describe it. Won it, you say? How?”

“Wagering on you when you tilted against the Knight of Flowers.” Yet when she heard her own words Catelyn knew she had gotten it wrong. “No . . . was it the other way?”

“Tyrion always backed me in the lists,” Jaime said, “but that day Ser Loras unhorsed me. A mischance, I took the boy too lightly, but no matter. Whatever my brother wagered, he lost . . . but that dagger did change hands, I recall it now. Robert showed it to me that night at the feast. His Grace loved to salt my wounds, especially when drunk. And when was he not drunk?”

Indicates that, if anything, Tyrion lost it to Robert. There's actually no mention of Littlefinger being involved in any bet here.

So please tell me, which of these three incidents you cited confirm Littlefinger even had original/any ownership of the dagger?