Something's rotten in Dorne, the Illyrio-Varys-Doran-Yronwood conspiracy (long read)

[Sansa_Stark]

I agree with the overall idea of this theory, and you made some very good points. One of my favorites theories is that Varys is really loyal to the Martells. His loyalty has been very murky throughout the whole series, and I think that Varys being loyal to Doran Martell really helps to clear up alot of loose ends. Varys probably smuggled Aegon out of Kings Landing before the sack because of his Martell Blood. King Aerys would not allow Elia Martell and her children to leave Kings Landing in an attempt to keep Dorne loyal, however, Varys still risked his neck with the Mad King if he was found out and he got Aegon out of the city.

Once the rebellion was over, Varys was way more secretive with King Robert and the Small Council with Aegon's location over that Danaerys and Viserys. Whats I always thought was wierd, was that they all have Targaryen blood, so why the favoritism shown on Varys' part?? And the only explanation that I could think of is that it is because of Aegon's Martell Blood. This could be why Varys counciled Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin Lannister. He was probably protecting himself as he was not expecting a pardon should the city fall, but he also could of been trying to protect Elia and her daughter, because of their Martell Blood.

Varys seems like one of the only real legit choices on who informed Doran Martell about Cersei's plot to kill Trystane. I have always felt that his little birds must of listened to a small council meeting or to one of Cersei's private conversations somehwere and learned of her plot. We still don't know who told Doran about it and I think that Varys makes alot of sense. Also, Varys tells Kevan Lannister that Aegon is alive and raised to rule before he kills him (can't think of Varys' motive for lying to a dying man?), and then Arianne Martell is going to see Aegon in the Winds of Winter Preview chapter. I think that Varys has been in league with the Martells since even before Roberts Rebellion, and he could have even been the one to negotiate with Aerys about Rhaegar's marriage to Elia.

Dude. Aegon is more than likely a fake Blackfyre than he is Rhaegar's son.

[mattah84]

Dude. Aegon is more than likely a fake Blackfyre than he is Rhaegar's son.

You may very well be right, but it isn't definite. Why would Varys lie to Kevan Lannister, a dying man?

[Sansa_Stark]

You may very well be right, but it isn't definite. Why would Varys lie to Kevan Lannister, a dying man?

He merely claimed Aegon is coming. Not Aegon Targaryen.

[tydides]

ok i didnt have time to read all of the comments or all the posts on these Dorn-Illyrio-Varys theories. But there seems to be one key point missing. The sealord of Braavos was involved in Arriane and Visery's marriage contract. Why? Why would anyone think to trust the Sealord, when his city is historically opposed to those of Valyrian descent. He would be at least neutral in the coming conflicts, if not anti-targaryen. Why would anyone trust him?

[mattah84]

He merely claimed Aegon is coming. Not Aegon Targaryen.

Kind of true, but then again not really. The only Aegon that Kevan Lannister would associate with what Varys says would be Aegon Targaryen........so why would Varys lie to a dying man?

[yolkboy]

You may very well be right, but it isn't definite. Why would Varys lie to Kevan Lannister, a dying man?

In case anyone was listening who wasn't in his pocket.

[mattah84]

In case anyone was listening who wasn't in his pocket.

He told Kevan Lannister what he did because Kevan was going to die, and whatever truth he learned would die with him. They were in Pycelle's chambers, and Pycelle was dead already. Kevan Lannister was in the process of bleeding to death. So who would be listening besides Varys' own little birds who came out with their Daggers?? I think that Varys was telling the truth to Kevan because he knew he was dying. Also, if anyone was listening they would know Varys was still in Kings Landing anyway, and they would know to tell people to prepare for Aegon's invasion. Varys wants Aegon to take people by surprise, and that is why Kevan only learns the truth as he is dying, and that is why Robert Baratheon's small council knew about Danaerys and Viserys' location, but they didn't even know Aegon was still alive.

The Mummer's Dragon is more then likely Euron Crows Eye, as he is described as being the biggest threat to Danaerys:

"Have you seen these others in your fires?" he asked, warily.

"Only their shadows," Moqorro said. "One most of all. A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

Euron will probably use the horn, or some other type of magic, and he will steal one of Dany's dragons. The Mummer's Dragon doesn't necessarily have to be Aegon, in fact I think that Aegon is TOO obvious to be the Mummer's Dragon.

[Frey family reunion]

ok i didnt have time to read all of the comments or all the posts on these Dorn-Illyrio-Varys theories. But there seems to be one key point missing. The sealord of Braavos was involved in Arriane and Visery's marriage contract. Why? Why would anyone think to trust the Sealord, when his city is historically opposed to those of Valyrian descent. He would be at least neutral in the coming conflicts, if not anti-targaryen. Why would anyone trust him?

I think Braavos is one of the more difficult mysteries of the series. Whose side are they on and how involved are they in the plots occurring in Westeros?

Braavos and the Targaryens have never really been antagonistic to each other as far as we know. In fact before Aegon's conquest, Aegon and Braavos were on the same side during the attempt by Volantis to conquer the Free Cities. The Targaryens also kept out of the slave trade after they took over Westeros.

Now as to the Sealord that witnessed the Arianne-Viserys marriage pact: We know that shortly after this marriage pact Viserys and Dany were kicked out of their house and had to flee Braavos. Either the Sealord brokering the marriage pact was replaced, or he had a change of heart. One reason he may have had a change of heart is because news of Dorne courting Viserys may have gotten out, and the Sealord was trying to distance himself from any direct antagonism from King's Landing.

In another thread a poster also noted that when a Prince defaulted on a loan to the Iron Bank it was said that another Prince came out of nowhere. Kind of like how Prince Aegon has come out of nowhere as well. Perhaps the Iron Bank may also have a hand in using Aegon to displace the current regime who has refused to pay back their loans.

[yolkboy]

So who would be listening besides Varys' own little birds who came out with their Daggers??

Varys' little birds who were no longer in his employ. Remember Qyburn had taken over the spy network/master of whisperers. We don't know to what extent.

[TalalOfDorne]

I have seen a very similar theory before. I do hope most of it is true. And Im guessing the Archon of Tyrosh will most likely play a bigger role.

This leads me to think that if one of the Magisters of Pentos (Illyrio) and an Archon of Tyrosh are in on this (And lets not forget the Sealord of Braavos. Though died after witnessing the signing of the Viserys-Arianne marriage contract we still don't know if his successor planned anything). My point is if three of the free cities were involved, then why not more. Norvos is Mellarios home, so who knows what could come of that?

[A Crow Come Over]

You may very well be right, but it isn't definite. Why would Varys lie to Kevan Lannister, a dying man?

He merely claimed Aegon is coming. Not Aegon Targaryen.

Kind of true, but then again not really. The only Aegon that Kevan Lannister would associate with what Varys says would be Aegon Targaryen........so why would Varys lie to a dying man?

Varys never says Aegon, he lets Kevan jump to his own conclusion.

[A Crow Come Over]

Varys' little birds who were no longer in his employ. Remember Qyburn had taken over the spy network/master of whisperers. We don't know to what extent.

No the little birds were strictly Varys, Qyburn didn't "take command" of them.

In fact, all of AFFC we are shown how inadequate Qyburn is Master of Whispers, to further illustrate Cersei has no idea what shes doing.

[mattah84]

Varys' little birds who were no longer in his employ. Remember Qyburn had taken over the spy network/master of whisperers. We don't know to what extent.

I don't think Qyburn controls Varys' little birds. I think the scene with Kevan Lannister in Pycelles chambers reflects that Varys still does.

Also, maybe Aegon is a fake, but I just feel like he is the obvious choice and may actually be the real deal. Varys knows all the secret passages in and out of Kings Landing.....hence Tyrions escape, so i think he could have done the switch if he really wanted to. We have a prophecy about mummers dragon early on in the series.....and out of no where in the 4th or 5th book Aegon shows up with Rhaegars best fried Jon Connington helping him.

Varys' loyalties are tricky....but I feel like him being loyal to the Martells really explains a lot of his actions. And I think the twist of him smuggling Aegon out because of Martell Blood rather then Targaryen is right up GRRMs alley. I could be wrong though.

[yolkboy]

I don't think Qyburn controls Varys' little birds.

I certainly don't think he controls all or even the majority. But a few, would not surprise me at all.

[Nerolunar]

Interesting read, Good job! ;)

[Lord Damian]

Holy crap. Remember that Doran has friends at court? What if he were talking about Varys and his birds.

I thought that Shae was a Dornish spy after she was killed in Tywin's bed and when Doran gives Arianne the rundown that he and her late unlcle had been working on that for a while. Doran wanted the throne to have Martell on it or inherit but he also wanted the Lannisters taken down. The Dornish are very seductive and what better way to get personal info from the Lannisters than a seductive female spy, Shae.

[Khal Shaggydog]

Awesome post OP, and great follow up. Ive been trying to make the point that the Ilyrio/Varys plot doesn't make sense if it really was just about Viserys and Dany - but this ties in the other side of it. Doran is a schemer, and this is definitely a worthy scheme. Its a scheme and a plot really (sorry to drop in a show line!).

Qyburn makes a remark about how easy it was to take control over Varys' birds with a little gold - that was clearly him being way too confident in himself, with Varys setting the reverse intel trap to keep tabs on Qyburn/Cersei. And Im guessing we'll get a reveal from Varys at some point as to exactly what Qyburn is doing in the black cells, since Varys has apparently been living there in one of his identities.

I think the whole plan makes sense, even the part about keeping Arianne in the dark, since she is a different sort of player than Doran is. She is more aligned with the Oberyn/Sand Snakes - they are women of action and not the type that will sit on a plot for 15-20 years. If the Sand Snakes don't make a significant appearance, however, I will be greatly disappointed. I hope Rickon ends up marrying one of the younger ones. I mean, who else would share a bedroom with Shaggydog?

[Hrafntýr]

There are interesting parallels between the North and Dorne, both having remained largely autonomous in the period of Targ rule, and both being culturally distinct from the other kingdoms (the North keeping many of the ways of the First Men, Dorne keeping Rhoynish ways). For all that the Martells became fully involved in the Iron Throne through intermarriage with the Targaryens at the time of (and indeed helping to inflame) the Blackfyre Rebellion, I do (genuinely) wonder how authentic is Doran's desire to secure the Iron Throne for his house, i.e. how much he has "Northern ambitions" (parallel to Rickard Stark's "Southern ambitions"), or how much he might be motivated purely by a desire for revenge. The Great Dornish Conspiracy outlined here would, of course, serve either.