I suspect the Lannisters are broke

[indignant mushroom]

If they aren't broke now (which they aren't), I have no doubt that Cersei will probably run her House into the ground and empty their bank account.

[CDM]

Well... last night's episode seem to give you the right of it. In the show at least, they're broke. I was so NOT expecting that! It means it's probably true in the books too right?

[Waters Gate]

One thing i don't get with Tywin's economic management is why he loans out such an hughe amount of gold to Robert to spend on pleasure's instead of buying most of the service's robert wants with his gold for him and providing them to him.

My issue is economic management and inflation here. Give a man so many millions of golden dragons to just spend in the economy, and it will drive up prices. Robert afterall is not investing for the sake of stimulating the economy, he adds gold to the pile so that he can take a larger share of the produce in to to feast with. production in time might increase because of it, but it's likely going to increase inflation.

And if i were Tywin, i would be the man most concerned af all about inflation in this country. The man afterall not only has a practical monopoly on gold/currency production, but it's also the chief produce of his rather mountainious lands which otherwise probably are far less aproductive for ex. in agriculture.

For the lannisters, in order to make "more wealth" from their gold, they must spread it wide rather than spend it lcally, for that would drive prices to the roof locally. The westerlands should have a whole trade network set up to distribute a certain amount of gold every year in order to reduce the effects of inflation, and they should also be exporting it to Essos if possible.

I'm sure the price of sensual service's skyrocketed in kings Landing during Roberts Reign, plus that inflation was affected in the whole nation to the point of making the price of gold go lower. Tywin should have gone to Lys and buy him a boat of whore's to stock up kings landing, that and buy a boat of arbor and dornish wine, gold would have been better spend and i'm sure Robert would have appreciated the gift.

Eitherway the WOF5K has created some havoc on economic production, and one has seen inflation skyrocket in kings landing under circumstances. I'm sure the war has decreased the lannisters capacity to buy wealth with their gold, inflation should be up and their abilety to spread it down. So i'd say their gold is less valuable at this point.

[Lykos]

I suspected for a long time that Tywin and probably his predecessors at least exaggerated the amount of gold they mined to lure the profitable trade from Oldtown, which is closer to Essos, and the Arbor, which has to offered exquisite wines - high in demand, to Lannisport.

It would be splendid irony, should the Lannister wealth hinge upon the despised spicers and cheesemongers.

Tyrion in Dance (in Volantis)

Each goldsmith had a guard at his door, and every spicer had two, for their goods were twice as valuable.

[Michael Herman]

While I don't think house Lannister is broke, far from it, I do share your suspicion that they are not quite as wealthy as people think, maybe not even as wealthy as house Tyrell.

We know that the west isn't particularly fertile, certainly not when compared to the Riverlands, the Reach or the vale and that their wealth is reliant upon gold mines, primarily those under CR itself.

Here's my problem, CR is thousands of years old, how would still productive gold mines still be under it? Sure they might still get some gold revenue, but considering that amount they seem to spend this may not be enough.

We don't know what one golden dragon is worth, but it must be in the hundreds of dollars (most people have never even touched one), maybe more. Lets assume $500, so 3,000,000 dragons * $500= 1,500,000,000, that's how much house Lannister has lent out, it's pretty difficult to equate to real money, but regardless Tywin seems to have lent Robert more than the GDP of many real world countries.

Plus as pointed out, Lannisport is on the wrong side of westeros, it would probably be faster to sail to kingslanding and then walk to Lannisport than sail all the way around the continent, especially for Braavos, Pentos and Myr.

[Lykos]

<snip>

We don't know what one golden dragon is worth, <snip>

Estimates vary from $100 to $17,000 :P

[IRON BANK]

This one is quite easy to solve, When Tyrion opens the books in KL and sees how much money is owed to the IB he immediately passes the Imps tax on whoring. usually when someone raises a tax it is to create revenue, for existing cost. When someone creates a new tax on an pre existing commodity it shows they are usually in a fiscal crisis. The Lannisters have been creating alliances and through war acquiring other peoples assets. Usually this aggresive of a stance is used by those who are in a desperate situation to acquire resources they do not posses.

[Waters Gate]

While I don't think house Lannister is broke, far from it, I do share your suspicion that they are not quite as wealthy as people think, maybe not even as wealthy as house Tyrell.

We know that the west isn't particularly fertile, certainly not when compared to the Riverlands, the Reach or the vale and that their wealth is reliant upon gold mines, primarily those under CR itself.

Here's my problem, CR is thousands of years old, how would still productive gold mines still be under it? Sure they might still get some gold revenue, but considering that amount they seem to spend this may not be enough.

We don't know what one golden dragon is worth, but it must be in the hundreds of dollars (most people have never even touched one), maybe more. Lets assume $500, so 3,000,000 dragons * $500= 1,500,000,000, that's how much house Lannister has lent out, it's pretty difficult to equate to real money, but regardless Tywin seems to have lent Robert more than the GDP of many real world countries.

Plus as pointed out, Lannisport is on the wrong side of westeros, it would probably be faster to sail to kingslanding and then walk to Lannisport than sail all the way around the continent, especially for Braavos, Pentos and Myr.

I'm not sure even if it matters that much how much they can still mine out, if they are implied to have a practicle monopoly on the stuff. if they do have a monopoly, then mining less means selling it at a more expensive price.

And i cannot fanthom that the lannisters wouldn't have some sort of organized trade network for the dispersal of their gold and the aquisition and importation of goods, for their gold would be that much more valuable if they can organize it's distribution with their own merchant fleet over a wide area and buy up goods at a relative cheap price spread across the world for import.

CL might have been sitting on a trade deficit though, the more so if tywin maintained more armies than he could with the income of the westerlands. When it comes to taking loans, youll going to be required to pay them back with interrest on a periodic basis, and the interrest might just start to outstrip youre income at some point even if that had been very big to begin with. Continually increasing debt can kill the income of any wealthy producer trough interrest payoffs, to the point he'd even never be able to pay them back.

[joluoto2]

It makes no sense the mines are empty when thinking about it.

Because

a) Why did Tywin give up Castamere if the mines under the Rock are empy? Are the Reyne mines empty too? If not they could be the lifeline the Lannisters need, but Castamere was given to the Spicers.

b )The Miners would realize the mines are empty and they'll talk. Then the singers would hear of it, and they'll sing.

[Adam de Felden]

Just as a thought, the lannisters get gold from their mines but do they also mint it? If they do do they have a monopoly overr coin production or is this a lisenced activity by the crown like it was in RW history?

[Waters Gate]

Just as a thought, the lannisters get gold from their mines but do they also mint it? If they do do they have a monopoly overr coin production or is this a lisenced activity by the crown like it was in RW history?

They likely mint it for the crown. There is no good information as to where the mints are and how they are controlled, but given the history of Westeros it's likely that the Lannisters and many other houses had their own mints, and likely the Lannisters mint is a bit larger than the ones of other regions. Well we do know of other coinage but golden dragons or stags, with the example of the reachman coins.

Makes sense to me to have the gold minted in the Westerlands where it is dug up in present time. Can't see the iron throne excert a monetary policy over the westerlands that would basicly break the economy of the westerlands, likely the Westerlands is given quite a bit of freedom over minting though with the thought in mind that the more they mint, the more taxes they are going to pay. this way monetary policy is left to the goldmakers, who have reason to balance it out for the kingdom themselfs.

In a practicly and defacto sense, it'd say tottaly with the ascencion of economic nitwits like Joffrey and Tommen. Why should Tywin care whether they agree where he mints the gold. you have at any time the sense that it always was tywin who was managing the House it's economics. So yes, i think Tywin retained a monopoly on gold production, and so the production volume might not have been of such a big importance. Rather having good trade networks and being able to maintain them during war might have been important for them, at the least the probably vital trade between the Westerlands and the reach, as the reach proabbly offers a bounty of cheap goods to buy up with their gold and bring back to the Westerlands, trade between Lannisport and Oldtown must be vital to the lannisters.

The dynamics of Casterly rocks sounds fun for those wanting to play around with it. for ex. Say tywin hires 10.000 mercenary's, brings them to the Westerlands and pays their wages in gold. Well you know he would be smart to first buy up a lot of food from the limited domestic market, so when he pays his mercenary's that extra introduction of gold compared to a limited domestic production of goods will instantly drive up prices locally, and he will be able to sell all his food with quite a profit.

[Lord Thornhart]

Great points, really, but I think the only reason the Lannisters are broke in the show is because the Tyrells have the smallest army instead of the biggest (seriously wtf) so they have to rely on their money instead of troops.

[Kresimir]

Ok, read to page two and not further yet, but how is it plausible to have a bunch of gold mines working for 8000 (or even for a 1000) years? The Westerlands have been known as the center of gold mining in westeros forever. Those mines HAVE to run dry eventually. Gold doesn't simply grow back after being extracted. And, while i don't have proof just now, i did somehow get the distinct feeling while reading the books that the Lannisters aren't as increadibly wealthy as they tell everyone they are. Also, there's the thing Tywin said in the last episode of the TV show.

I'm not saying they're broke - they seem like the kind of family that would have diversified their assets and sources of income - but I think it's possible that they are relying on their reputation heavily. They could have taken loans from the Iron Bank to appear rich and finance the throne, taking money under lower and giving it to the crown at higher interest rates (covering the debt with income from lannisport, their vassals and any other place they might have invested into). That way they could retain the appearance of being filthy rich (and, more importantly the prestige gained by having this reputation), and still function.

Also, just now realised the discussion is a bit old, and most of what I was saying has been covered since...

[Waters Gate]

Ok, read to page two and not further yet, but how is it plausible to have a bunch of gold mines working for 8000 (or even for a 1000) years? The Westerlands have been known as the center of gold mining in westeros forever. Those mines HAVE to run dry eventually. Gold doesn't simply grow back after being extracted.

Monopoly.

If you have a monopoly, then you can control prices, and you don't have to sell much to get the same amount of money. Say that you would be the only oil producer in the world. if you cut oil production by 4, likely the price of oil is going to rise by as much. Afcourse in a competitive scenario that gets you competition, but if you truly have a practicle monopoly...

And therefore, gold production maybe never needed be high to get the same wealth out of the market. In the end the wealth they got for it is irrelevant to how much theyve mined, we can wonder how many tons of the stuff they mined though, but its not because they have managed to gather great amounts of wealth by selling it for 8 millenia that this nessecarily implies that they mined up hughe amounts of it.

Even then, asside from that, technique's improve by technoligy over time, allowing more gold to be produced out of a same source. Gold comes in the form of large pieces to minute particles of dust, as technoligy improved man has ever been able to collect smaller pieces of gold thus being to re-mine "exhausted" mines. it also depends on economics, the scarcer gold becomes, the more interresting it becomes to pay men to collect the smallest stuff.

Really goldmines don't work that way that you have this one big large solid goldblock you mine up and then it's exhausted. It's dispersed all over the rock in ever smaller fragments. Tywin can't know if the rock is empty, all he knows is how much has been found over the latest period.

[falcotron]

Really goldmines don't work that way that you have this one big large solid goldblock you mine up and then it's exhausted. It's dispersed all over the rock in ever smaller fragments. Tywin can't know if the rock is empty, all he knows is how much has been found over the latest period.

But the ever smaller fragments become ever less profitable to extract. While technology does counter that to some extent, there are limits—and keep in mind that technology improved a lot slower in the past than the modern era.

Anyway, the idea of a single gold deposit being mineable for 8000 years is implausible. Humans have been mining gold in our world for maybe 7000 years, and from the Roman era on, few mining regions lasted more than a few decades. That's a big part of the reason Rome had to keep expanding—they needed the Spanish mines, the Nubian mines, the British mines, the Translyvanian mines, etc. because their old ones were running dry. The record is probably the Kolar Gold Fields, mined for 1500 years (but not continuously).

Then again, Westeros is not on our world; there's no reason mineral geology couldn't be significantly different there, given how much else is different.

[Secto]

The Lannisters are not broke. Even if the mines run dry they still have fucking champers full of gold. When Tyrion takes back CR like a hound takes a bitch and there would be no money to pay the mercaneries...

Cersei once spoke of opening a gold bank. This could be a way to keep theor wealth even though there mines run dr

[Waters Gate]

But the ever smaller fragments become ever less profitable to extract. While technology does counter that to some extent, there are limits—and keep in mind that technology improved a lot slower in the past than the modern era.

Anyway, the idea of a single gold deposit being mineable for 8000 years is implausible. Humans have been mining gold in our world for maybe 7000 years, and from the Roman era on, few mining regions lasted more than a few decades. That's a big part of the reason Rome had to keep expanding—they needed the Spanish mines, the Nubian mines, the British mines, the Translyvanian mines, etc. because their old ones were running dry. The record is probably the Kolar Gold Fields, mined for 1500 years (but not continuously).

Then again, Westeros is not on our world; there's no reason mineral geology couldn't be significantly different there, given how much else is different.

Gold has substitute's, like silver. I think i have read somewhere that 1 gold is worth quite a lot of silvers in Westeros, probably the Westerosi have solved their relative lack of gold by introducing far more silver.

[KittensRuleBeetsDrool]

This is interesting to speculate on. And it would certainly go with the theme of "everything is not as it appears on the surface, and identity is often an illusion" that we see in the series.

I was reading a theory - on Reddit I think - about the ADWD scene with Tyrion signing away vast amounts of money to the Second Sons using the wealth of Casterly Rock as collateral. The theory was that once Tyrion goes to pay them, he'll discover that the vaults are empty and that the Lannister wealth was not what it seemed to be.

Now back to the well-known scene in ASOS where Tyrion shoots Tywin while he's on the privy, and notes that "In the end, Tywin Lannister did not, in fact, shit gold." Yes, it's the punchline to a joke that has been set up for three books - but I think it could also be a foreshadowing/hint as to the real state of Lannister finances.

(I always thought that the Tyrells were really richer than the Lannisters. Their wealth is derived from the food and wine the Reach produces and trades. Barring a catastrophe like a severe crop blight or a ten-year winter, the latter of which might well be on its way, they are in a better state to get and stay wealthy than the Lannisters. You can't eat gold, but food is essential, and it's a renewable resource, meaning you can always plant more.)

[The Kinkslayer]

The only thing keeping the TV-Lannisters affluent is Lord Tywin's personal gold producing machine :cool4:

[khalhotpie]

so tv lannisters broke but book lannisters just fine .

even after the wealth runs dry the crown owes them a fortune anyway