U.S. Politics - knowing me knowing you, a-haaa

[Shryke]

I agree with him on some issues and disagree on others, but overall he seems to be much more about publicity stunts, like shoveling driveways and living on food stamps for a week, than actually accomplishing anything substantive.

He's also a Wall Street puppet. More then most Senators.

[Shryke]

Oh snap!

Indeed.

Preach it DG!

Also, Rudy and Gulliani's policies have much less to do with the dropping crime rate then Commodore pretends.

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

Indeed.

Preach it DG!

Also, Rudy and Gulliani's policies have much less to do with the dropping crime rate then Commodore pretends.

I always find it interesting that during almost 30 years of global crime decline that anyone points to any cause for a drop in crime. It's part of a trend. The aberrance is where crime is increasing. In the US this is happening pretty much only in Detroit and New Orleans, both of which have easily identifiable causes.

[Shryke]

I always find it interesting that during almost 30 years of global crime decline that anyone points to any cause for a drop in crime. It's part of a trend. The aberrance is where crime is increasing. In the US this is happening pretty much only in Detroit and New Orleans, both of which have easily identifiable causes.

I still like the lead explanation.

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

I still like the lead explanation.

It works as well as anything else they've come up with, although I imagine the real answer is that this shit is just cyclical and no one really knows why.

[Shryke]

It works as well as anything else they've come up with, although I imagine the real answer is that this shit is just cyclical and no one really knows why.

I don't buy a cyclical explanation cause there's no reason it should be cyclical.

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

I don't buy a cyclical explanation cause there's no reason it should be cyclical.

There's no reason it shouldn't be. It's not a stretch to say that violence has a feedback loop (violence begets violence), and it's possible that there is an upper limit that societal violence can reach before it breaks out into mass conflict or subsides back to a baseline.

It's impossible to know, because we're really only categorized and tracked crime over the last 60-80 years. And during that time, it's risen over (about) 30 years, and fallen over (about) 30 years.

[Galactus]

Drum tried to address this issue:

I'm always suspicious about changes in crime stats, they're far more likely to be changes in reporting patterns than anything else.

[Commodore]

I always find it interesting that during almost 30 years of global crime decline that anyone points to any cause for a drop in crime. It's part of a trend. The aberrance is where crime is increasing. In the US this is happening pretty much only in Detroit and New Orleans, both of which have easily identifiable causes.

we'll find out soon enough with Mayor Quinn if Rudy/Bloomy mattered

[Commodore]

I'm always suspicious about changes in crime stats, they're far more likely to be changes in reporting patterns than anything else.

but how do you make a body disappear?

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

I'm always suspicious about changes in crime stats, they're far more likely to be changes in reporting patterns than anything else.

That too. From my understanding, crime stats from Japan are considered not to be reliable because the Japanese always underreport so they will have more face to the international community.

but how do you make a body disappear?

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You don't. But you might have a manslaughter instead of a homicide. Or an accidental death instead of a suicide.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

I'm always suspicious about changes in crime stats, they're far more likely to be changes in reporting patterns than anything else.

I wonder, given you're background in historical research, what's your opinions of Pinker's Better Angels of Our Nature?

[Shryke]

There's no reason it shouldn't be. It's not a stretch to say that violence has a feedback loop (violence begets violence), and it's possible that there is an upper limit that societal violence can reach before it breaks out into mass conflict or subsides back to a baseline.

It's impossible to know, because we're really only categorized and tracked crime over the last 60-80 years. And during that time, it's risen over (about) 30 years, and fallen over (about) 30 years.

I just want you to know I keep thinking of you as "Sepia Relic" since you changed your AV and it takes a double-take to remember it's you.

[Galactus]

but how do you make a body disappear?

Murder rates do tend to be more reliable than eg. robberies, but there's still a huge amount of difference (sentencing, whether or not it's classified as a crime, the body simply going missing, etc.)

[Galactus]

I wonder, given you're background in historical research, what's your opinions of Pinker's Better Angels of Our Nature?

I haven't read it, what's the argument?

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

I just want you to know I keep thinking of you as "Sepia Relic" since you changed your AV and it takes a double-take to remember it's you.

I had another sepia bearded guy as my last avatar, I thought I'd keep the theme going. I think it's just because this one is facing a different direction.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

I haven't read it, what's the argument?

Violence has been trending downward throughout all of human history and pre-history and as a corollary, human civilization is becoming more enlightened.

[Shryke]

I had another sepia bearded guy as my last avatar, I thought I'd keep the theme going. I think it's just because this one is facing a different direction.

It's totally true.

[Galactus]

Violence has been trending downward throughout all of human history and pre-history and as a corollary, human civilization is becoming more enlightened.

That seems a fairly dubious proposition to make, honestly. (because of well, lack of data) violence has certainly changed character.

From what I remember violence doesen't slope downward though, the amount of interpersonal violence seems to have vastly decreased between the 17th-18th centuries, for instance. (suicide increased though). There's all sorts of micro-patterns of course.

OTOH, you could easily argue that violence has simply become more institutionalized rather than disappearing entirely.

[Stag Country]

That too. From my understanding, crime stats from Japan are considered not to be reliable because the Japanese always underreport so they will have more face to the international community.

That was certainly the narrative eaten up by the US (and probably most Western) media during the Tsunami. Everyone stopped and said "look no looting, it must be cultural discipline".....then you find out looting took place quite a bit. I'm not sure whether its simply an issue of underreporting in Japan or Western media just being too lazy to get someone in Japan to investigate.