[BOOK SPOILERS] Predictions for TV series: Season by Season

[Khal-a-bunga]

I think enough of TWOW will have been written by the time they're filming season 5 to avoid making Jon's stabbing a cliffhanger.

Why wouldn't they use Jon being stabbed as a cliffhanger? It's not an episode nine moment, whatsoever. If you ask me, it will definitely happen in the fifth season finale.

[Draco_Dracul]

And I'm pretty sure that it will be the closing scene of season 6 :P.

I'm betting if they plan for it to be the closing of season 6, there won't be a season 6 for him to get stabbed at the close of.

[oprahnoodlemantra]

Why wouldn't they use Jon being stabbed as a cliffhanger? It's not an episode nine moment, whatsoever. If you ask me, it will definitely happen in the fifth season finale.

It's a fine cliffhanger for a book because it's easy to pick up right where it left off. The author can pretend that no time has passed. It would be an awkward cliffhanger onscreen because there are direct consequences of the stabbing. It would be like hitting pause in the middle of an explosion for an entire year.

[Ser Tahu]

I'm betting if they plan for it to be the closing of season 6, there won't be a season 6 for him to get stabbed at the close of.

You're logic being...?

By season 5 GoT will be the most viewed show HBO has ever had. Even with a small decline in viewership it would still be the most viewed show they have now. Season 5 ending at the same place as AFfC would still make a season roughly as strong as season 2, and even if it is weaker than S2 GoT would still be one of the best shows on television. And if the season is terrible (and it won't be), one bad season has never killed a good show. Dexter S5 (and S6 and S7) didn't kill it, in fact S5 is where the ratings rose the most. Breaking Bad S2 didn't kill it. Sons of Anarchy S3. True Blood S3 ( I would actually say S1and S2 are the worst, but most would disagree) Boardwalk Empire S1. Homeland S2 (which I actually enjoyed). Spartacus S2. The Walking Dead S2 and S3.

And if Treme can survive for 4 seasons GoT will never be cancelled. Forgive me, but I've never understood this idea that GoT would be cancelled if it adapted AFfC/ADwD faithfully, it is a ridiculous notion. Also, HBO has stated "we will keep on making it as long as there is story to tell", and I am fairly certain that they are aware of the existence of AFfC/ADwD.

I would argue that, in the long term, adapting AFfC/ADwD faithfully would be more beneficially than cutting large parts of it, as cutting it would likely cause writing problems later on that I'm sure they would rather avoid.

[Ser Tahu]

It's a fine cliffhanger for a book because it's easy to pick up right where it left off. The author can pretend that no time has passed. It would be an awkward cliffhanger onscreen because there are direct consequences of the stabbing. It would be like hitting pause in the middle of an explosion for an entire year.

That sort of cliffhanger season finale has worked well for other shows, though.

Breaking Bad:

Gale being killed at the end of season 3

Dexter:

Rita being killed at the end of season 4

Downton Abbey:

Matthew Crawley at the end of season 3

These are all examples of character deaths at the end of seasons being done to great effect, and other shows have had similar season endings where fans have had to wait a year for the fallout. If it can work for them, why not for GoT?

[Draco_Dracul]

I would argue that, in the long term, adapting AFfC/ADwD faithfully would be more beneficially than cutting large parts of it, as cutting it would likely cause writing problems later on that I'm sure they would rather avoid.

My logic is that a large number of popular character including Jon, Arya, and most importantly Tyrion barely have one season worth of material. Couple that with a growing feeling that a number of very anicipated plot threads are going nowhere and you have a recipe for people to stop watching.More over almost none of the stories have suitably big middle that can be co-opted into a season 5 end point.

I would argue that in the long term it is more beneficially to AFfC/ADwD down to only the bare essentials so that there is more time to the material from (or farm more likely, the material that is comparable to, but released before TWoW and ADoS). I would rather rush through two books with little movement in the main plot in one season than cramming two climactic books into two.

[Ser Tahu]

My logic is that a large number of popular character including Jon, Arya, and most importantly Tyrion barely have one season worth of material. Couple that with a growing feeling that a number of very anicipated plot threads are going nowhere and you have a recipe for people to stop watching.More over almost none of the stories have suitably big middle that can be co-opted into a season 5 end point.

I would argue that in the long term it is more beneficially to AFfC/ADwD down to only the bare essentials so that there is more time to the material from (or farm more likely, the material that is comparable to, but released before TWoW and ADoS). I would rather rush through two books with little movement in the main plot in one season than cramming two climactic books into two.

The problem with finishing S5 at the same point as ADwD is that all of the storylines would end in cliffhangers. Ending at the same place as AFfC provides a nice mixture of cliffhangers and conclusions. Also, as S6 would then be approximately an even mix of ADwD and TWoW, the TWoW material can provide the natural conclusions that were supposed to be at the end of ADwD.

As for the characters you mentioned, I would argue that The Wall/North has about 1.5 seasons worth of material, and closer to two if the Lord Commander election is in S5, and Tyrion/Meereen most definitely has enough material to last to the end of S6, let alone to the end of S5. Overall, though, I think most storylines would enter TWoW around 6x04, give or take a few episodes. The only exceptions to that would be Meereen and the North, simply because they have more material. As for the end points of the characters you mentioned, here is why I think the end points I mentioned above would be suitable:

Jon - beheading Janos and Stannis leaving the Wall. HIs S5 arc, which most likely will include the Lord Commander election, would be about him rising to power, then dealing with the internal struggles within the Night's Watch all while dealing with Stannis. The beheading of Janos ends the internal struggles, and Stannis leaving removes himself as a problem for Jon to take care of. S6 would then be about him treating with the Wildlings and interfering with the affairs of the realm. Also, since it is looking increasingly likely that all of the AFfC Iron Islands stuff is being held back to S5, there would be no point in rushing Stannis' stuff if YarAsha isn't at Deepwood Motte yet to be captured.

Arya - killing the Night's Watchman and returning to the House of Black and White. Up until that point in the books her training mostly involved learning the language and the basics, while after that she really began training as an assassin. It just seems like a natural endpoint for her. S6 would then have her initial assassinations in the first half and then TWoW in the second half.

Tyrion - leaving Volantis with Jorah. The arc will likely focus on trying to get to Daenerys, with finding out about Aegon also a strong focus. Them boarding the boat would parallel Tyrion's S4 ending, and would have viewers thinking he is about to meet Daenerys. S6 would then have the boat journey in the first few episodes, and end with him escaping slavery and joining the sellswords, with the main focus being their slavery.

Even boiling down AFfC/ADwD to the bare essentials, if you work out what they need I think you will find that it just can't be crammed into 10 hours while still maintaining the integrity of the story.

[Draco_Dracul]

The problem with finishing S5 at the same point as ADwD is that all of the storylines would end in cliffhangers. Ending at the same place as AFfC provides a nice mixture of cliffhangers and conclusions. Also, as S6 would then be approximately an even mix of ADwD and TWoW, the TWoW material can provide the natural conclusions that were supposed to be at the end of ADwD.

If that's the cast you would have the stabbing of Jon around episode 5 of season 6 rather than the end.

[Ser Tahu]

If that's the cast you would have the stabbing of Jon around episode 5 of season 6 rather than the end.

You didn't read the next paragraph, did you?

"Overall, though, I think most storylines would enter TWoW around 6x04, give or take a few episodes. The only exceptions to that would be Meereen and the North, simply because they have more material."

Also, in addition to them having more material, if you look at the last section of ADwD it is almost exclusively Meereen and the Wall. It only makes sense that the last section of ADwD would overlap with the start of TWoW.

[franko99]

It's a fine cliffhanger for a book because it's easy to pick up right where it left off. The author can pretend that no time has passed. It would be an awkward cliffhanger onscreen because there are direct consequences of the stabbing. It would be like hitting pause in the middle of an explosion for an entire year.

well, isn't that what D&D did with the ending of season 2?

That sort of cliffhanger season finale has worked well for other shows, though.

Breaking Bad:

Gale being killed at the end of season 3

Dexter:

Rita being killed at the end of season 4

Downton Abbey:

Matthew Crawley at the end of season 3

These are all examples of character deaths at the end of seasons being done to great effect, and other shows have had similar season endings where fans have had to wait a year for the fallout. If it can work for them, why not for GoT?

Also, this

[oprahnoodlemantra]

That sort of cliffhanger season finale has worked well for other shows, though.

Breaking Bad:

Gale being killed at the end of season 3

Dexter:

Rita being killed at the end of season 4

Downton Abbey:

Matthew Crawley at the end of season 3

These are all examples of character deaths at the end of seasons being done to great effect, and other shows have had similar season endings where fans have had to wait a year for the fallout. If it can work for them, why not for GoT?

I haven't watched Dexter or Downton Abbey but that cliffhanger worked for Breaking Bad because the news had to reach other ears before anything could be done which isn't nearly as immediate as the anarchy that will erupt at the Wall within seconds of Jon being stabbed. Also, Breaking Bad had a smaller cast so it was easier to get everyone together every year. Whatever happens at the Wall, there will be multiple character deaths and other repercussions within seconds of Jon being stabbed. It would be awkward if it was a cliffhanger and then the next they had to recast an actor, especially if the character is meant to die within seconds of the stabbing. Wouldn't it be better to close character archs before the end of the season? It would be easier production-wise as well. Not only that, the closest thing to a season ending cliffhanger so far was the Others marching towards the NW at the end of season 2. Imagine if it ended with the NW actually being attacked.

[Khal-a-bunga]

Nobody is saying that they'll cut the scene the very second Jon is stabbed, but don't expect to see a whole lot more beyond that. We'll likely get to see a bit of the immediate aftermath, but there's absolutely no reason that they couldn't end Jon's story line with him being Caesar'd in the finale (of the fifth season, just to be clear). It's the kind of cliffhanger that works best, as I've discussed before. Lost ended every single season on a cliffhanger, and it seemed to work out (mostly) fine for them. In terms of the logistics, I don't really see the issue. Almost every show that has lasted multiple seasons has had a season premiere that - chronologically - immediately followed the previous seasons' finale. It's pretty common-place, actually.

[oierem]

Jon's election as LC is so predictable and straight out of the typical fairytale that I really hope they don't try to make too much of it and squeeze it at the end of season 4. The only important bit is that Jon refuses Stannis' offer.

I mean, the moment you hear there's gonna be an election, you just KNOW that Jon is going to be elected. It's like Harry Potter being one of the champions in the tournament of book/film 4. So, devoting about half of season 5 to that would be a huge mistake, IMO.

[Khal-a-bunga]

I'm thinking they'll really minimize the election action (though I'd previously thought that they would let it play out in full), and play up the aspect of Jon either being legitimized and becoming the heir of Winterfell, or becoming the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

[oprahnoodlemantra]

Jon's election as LC is so predictable and straight out of the typical fairytale that I really hope they don't try to make too much of it and squeeze it at the end of season 4. The only important bit is that Jon refuses Stannis' offer.

I mean, the moment you hear there's gonna be an election, you just KNOW that Jon is going to be elected. It's like Harry Potter being one of the champions in the tournament of book/film 4. So, devoting about half of season 5 to that would be a huge mistake, IMO.

It'll probably be in the finale of season 4. It can start off with the aftermath of the battle and Stannis making his offer. Then later on Sam can pull strings for the election. When Jon wins he can turn down Stannis and send him to the hill clans. They'll only need like 3-4 scenes for all of it.

The season 4 finale is gonna rule...if it goes the way I think it will with Jon becoming LC, Arya leaving for Braavos, Bran reaching the cave, Tyrion's escape, and the LS reveal.

[Khal-a-bunga]

I think it's also likely that we'll see Tywin & Shae killed, as well as Lysa being pushed out of the moon door in the season four finale, as well. Going to be one heck of an episode.

[Ser Tahu]

Jon's election as LC is so predictable and straight out of the typical fairytale that I really hope they don't try to make too much of it and squeeze it at the end of season 4. The only important bit is that Jon refuses Stannis' offer.

I mean, the moment you hear there's gonna be an election, you just KNOW that Jon is going to be elected. It's like Harry Potter being one of the champions in the tournament of book/film 4. So, devoting about half of season 5 to that would be a huge mistake, IMO.

Predictable isn't always bad. It was blatantly obvious that Daenerys' dragon eggs would hatch, but it didn't make that scene terrible or boring. In fact, I would say it was one of the most impactful scenes of the first season. Should they spend half a season on it? Definitely not. The way I saw it was it happening over three episodes (from 4x10 - 5x02, OR from 5x01 - 5x03, depending on whether they want the Wall in S4 to end with setup for S5 or end with a conclusion), with around 5-6 scenes:

E1: Scene 1 - the seniors of the Watch at Castle Black sending out word that there will be an election

Scene 2 - Stannis offering to legitimise Jon

E2: Scene 3 - Cotter Pyke (and Denys Mallister) arriving, and Janos putting his name forward

Scene 4 - First round of voting with no result.

E3: Scene 5 - Sam meeting with Cotter (and Denys) about a 'alternative candidate'

Scene 6 - Second round of voting, Jon elected.

That would then leave 7-8 episodes of season 5 for Jon establishing his rule, and dealing with Janos' scheming and Stannis (and possibly other stuff, depending on where they decide to end his season)

It'll probably be in the finale of season 4. It can start off with the aftermath of the battle and Stannis making his offer. Then later on Sam can pull strings for the election. When Jon wins he can turn down Stannis and send him to the hill clans. They'll only need like 3-4 scenes for all of it.

The season 4 finale is gonna rule...if it goes the way I think it will with Jon becoming LC, Arya leaving for Braavos, Bran reaching the cave, Tyrion's escape, and the LS reveal.

Although it would be nice for it to be in the S4 finale, there are so many important scenes for them to show (Tyrion's escape, Lysa's death, Daenerys' conclusion (whether that be sending off Jorah and deciding to rule or the child bones), and likely some stuff with Bran and the Bloodraven, among other things) I'm not sure they will have the time for 3-4 scenes at the Wall.

[oierem]

The season 3 finale managed to include all the storylines and yet had enogh time to advance significantly Stannis' storyline: after a whole season of doing almost nothing, there were 3-4 scenes featuring Dragonstone: Davos reads a letter, Stannis decides that Gendry has to be sacrified, Davos rescues Gendry and faces Stannis, gives him the letter and they decide that they must go to the North.

[Ser Tahu]

The season 3 finale managed to include all the storylines and yet had enogh time to advance significantly Stannis' storyline: after a whole season of doing almost nothing, there were 3-4 scenes featuring Dragonstone: Davos reads a letter, Stannis decides that Gendry has to be sacrified, Davos rescues Gendry and faces Stannis, gives him the letter and they decide that they must go to the North.

The difference would be that aside from the Stannis stuff a lot of the season 3 finale scenes were rather inconsequential, and din't require much time. The scenes that would be in the season 4 finale are all very important and would require a bit more time.

[oprahnoodlemantra]

The difference would be that aside from the Stannis stuff a lot of the season 3 finale scenes were rather inconsequential, and din't require much time. The scenes that would be in the season 4 finale are all very important and would require a bit more time.

They also managed to fit in a lot of scenes in King's Landing. I guess in S4x10's case the most important scenes would be at the Wall, in the Vale, and in Meereen while the other storylines would have still have important scenes, but less.